Opinion piece
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Pakistan is caught in a showdown between Gen. Asim Munir, the chief of army staff, and Imran Khan, the former prime minister and cricket star who remains head of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party.
Though the courts came to Khan's rescue and ordered his release within hours of his arrest on corruption charges a week ago, Khan is unlikely to emerge the victor of this confrontation. Ultimately, despite his close familiarity with the military and the support he previously got from the institution, the populist politician has misjudged its tolerance for defiance.
Attacks by Khan's supporters against military property in various cities in the wake of his arrest shocked the public. It has been decades since people have seen such mayhem and violence directed against the military by other civilians.
But it did not take long for them to realize that there was no revolution in the making. Nor would the tumult amount to anything to match the throngs that came out to thwart the Turkish army's attempted 2016 coup against Recep Tayyip Erdogan or the uprising seen in Myanmar since the army there ousted that country's civilian government in 2021. If anything, Pakistan's case is more about a political movement whose leadership wants military support for its goals and is protesting because the army has spurned it.
Khan likely took inspiration from Erdogan and his aggressive posture toward the Turkish Army. Many in the PTI certainly consider the way Turks used street power to humiliate army men who came to overthrow their favorite leader to be a model. This is what they tried to do in pulling down military monuments as Khan directed coarse language against the army's top leaders.
Nonetheless, the similarity between the upheavals in the two countries ends there.
Khan's failure to turn his protest movement into something more powerful was inevitable. His notion of directing unhappiness on the streets -- exacerbated by the country's dire economic conditions -- into a movement that could pressure the army into bringing him back to power was flawed.
Supporters of Imran Khan gather near his home in Lahore on March 21: Their protests are not a revolution in the making. © Reuters
Khan's agitation was really just aimed against Munir, the army chief, rather than the military overall. Clearly, Khan's aim was not to disempower the armed forces that brought him to power in the first place back in 2018.
Khan said as much in interviews. During his three and a half years as prime minister, he in fact extended military influence within the government and extolled the virtues of his government's "hybridity." If Khan were to seal another deal with the military, he and his supporters would certainly stop railing against the army's role.
The PTI's agitation cannot bring people across the political spectrum together for a common cause simply because there is not one. Khan's political opponents have suffered worse than being ousted from office at the hands of the army but have pinned their hopes on the same army to ensure Khan does not return to power.
Progressive pro-democracy activists are aghast at how the government and army are dealing with Khan, but they are not starry-eyed about him or his "people's revolution." They are scared of his religious conservatism and his propensity to shut down rivals with street power. Though many in the urban middle class who self-identify as liberals support Khan, his image as "Taliban Khan," and the apparent support for him from the Pakistani Taliban compounds anxiety about his possible return to power and gives even democrats reason to stand with Munir.
Khan believed he could exploit dissatisfaction and internal differences within the army to his advantage. Some top generals may be unhappy with Munir, but scenes of public disrespect toward the military and attacks on military symbols had the effect of reminding them that they would be better off sticking with their chief.
The conflict has by no means ended. The state's capacity for brutality against those who have crossed it will be on show through leaked videos of abuses in custody against PTI cadres. Party leaders will be arrested and more cases will be brought against Khan to redouble efforts to disqualify him from contesting the country's next election.
There are also signs that the army chief intends to try the PTI leadership in military courts using the 1952 Army Act. There is little likelihood this would draw much international condemnation as many countries, especially powers like China and the U.S., want to see the army survive this crisis. Domestically, human rights abuses against the PTI will be gently condemned though they may sow seeds of hatred with long-term implications.
But for the moment, Munir has convinced himself that Khan is a botched experiment who must be kept out of the electoral process. The army leadership and its political partners are yet to calculate the cost of abandoning the project, however.
At any rate, Khan's faithful supporters, especially among the Pakistani diaspora, are not in the mood to believe any evidence against him. If the PTI is not accommodated, Khan's angry supporters are likely to turn away from both the electoral process and the army more broadly. The army may come to regret even more strongly its previous dalliance with him.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Imran-Khan-cannot-win-back-power-by-targeting-Pakistan-s-military
