The partition in Ireland - does it make sense in the 21st century?

[James]

[MENTION=1842]James[/MENTION] while ROI states neutrality it provided a refuelling post for USAAF personnel and aircraft bound for GB during WW2.

Thousands of ROI soldiers volunteered for British regiments during WW2.

ROI provided special forces assistance to the ISAF mission in Afghanistan. ROI is a member of NATO’s Partnership for Peace. RAF Typhoon interceptors have interdicted Russian reconnaissance aircraft entering ROI airspace.

Good to read.

 

[Robert]

Good to read.

It’s interesting to note that a battalion of Irish volunteers fought for France’s fascists in the Spanish Civil War. Every country has rotten apples.

Taoiseach de Valera was offered an end to the Partition of Ireland in 1940 by HM Gov, if he would join the fight against Hitler, but since Dublin and Stormont intensely distrusted each other, he preferred that Ireland stay officially neutral.

 

[Donal Cozzie]

You're right [MENTION=136108]Donal Cozzie[/MENTION]. Article 3 of the GFA says the poll must be for citizens of the Republic and NI both.

Three million people in NI. Six million in ROI.

Assuming a turnout of 75%, that's about 1.9 million votes cast in NI and 3.4 million votes in ROI. 5.3 million votes cast.

2/3 of NI voters are for Loyalism at this time so that's around 1.3 million No votes.

Assuming a supermajority of 2/3 is needed to reunify, it would take 3.54 million votes for Yes, of which 2.24 million would have to come from ROI. That's about 2/3 of the ROI vote to overwhelm the Unionists in the North.

So say Reunification takes place and the Six Counties have to bow to Dublin. Are we going to see an ongoing bombing and assassination campaign by Ulster terrorists? A reversal of The Troubles where a dissident minority kicks against rule from Dublin instead of London? What do you think of this scenario [MENTION=53290]Markhor[/MENTION]?

The GFA was a really elegant solution to all this.....

Firstly, there are two votes held, not one large one. ROI and NI would separately require a 50% plus Yes vote to reunification. If either don't meet that, it doesn't happen.

Secondly I think people are vastly overestimating the ability of Loyalist paramilitaries. They hold zero influence outside NI for obvious reasons, and even in NI its restricted to ghetto'd areas. Not to say they wouldn't kick up trouble again but the days of them running the place are over. They couldn't prevent the Protocol, couldn't prevent the flag issue in 2013, couldn't prevent a SF victory election, and they couldnt stop a UI if it was voted for. Whatever troubles re-occurred would fizzle out in time as it has every time they've flared up in recent decades, not to mention EU, UK and Irish anti terror agencies would be on them like a rash.

 

[Donal Cozzie]

It’s interesting to note that a battalion of Irish volunteers fought for France’s fascists in the Spanish Civil War. Every country has rotten apples.

Taoiseach de Valera was offered an end to the Partition of Ireland in 1940 by HM Gov, if he would join the fight against Hitler, but since Dublin and Stormont intensely distrusted each other, he preferred that Ireland stay officially neutral.

That battalion you mention was led by the founder of Fine Gael, who were originally a deeply fascist party modelled after Mussolini. Funny how they've been a centre/centre-right party their entire history otherwise though.

DeValera didn't reject Churchill's offer because he didn't trust Stormont, he rejected it because he knew Churchill could not deliver what he'd promised and that he had zero intention to, plus Stormont would've rebelled against it. It was a blatant nonsense offer. On top of that, placing a fledgling state with a severely underdeveloped economy and little infrastructure into the war at the time the UK was being bombed to smithereens would've ruined this country, particularly as tens of thousands of men volunteered for the British anyway. It would've made zero sense to ditch neutrality.

 

[Donal Cozzie]

Its just the North that votes. The ROI by its very nature considers NI as legitimately part of a United Ireland and wont require a vote.

I don't know much about how the DUP is perceived in Ireland but I think the effect of the last few years of Tory rule in the UK has hastened the potential of Irish unification.

Incorrect. When the ROI voted in favour of the GFA in the 90's the vote also stipulated that Articles 2 and 3 of our constitution at the time, the ones that lay claim to the North, be removed, so our territorial claim to Northern Ireland no longer exists.

As stated above, in the event of a border poll, a separate vote is required in the ROI to confirm re0unification.

I agree with you on the second bit, it's progressed it by decades. In particular now that the UK has left the EU on top of the standard Irish identity factor of the vote, now some voters who weren't pro Unity will consider whether being within the EU is a sufficient bonus to validate it. Ten years ago I'd have said NI was 70/30 pro UK - 50 percent staunchly Unionist, 25 percent staunchly Unity and the remainder being in the middle. Now I'd say its more 60/40, with 30 percent on both sides being die-hards but now a significant middle ground exists who would ultimately decide any vote. Political Unionism has completely and utterly shunned this section for decades, they won't be able to for much longer.

The biggest threat to Unity for me ironically is Alliance. Long term if NI develops a status-quo neutral political party who emerge as a major player I'd find it difficult to ever see a majority of people willing to vote for a change as drastic as re-unification. That said NI will never go independent in its own right, it runs on a 7 billion deficit annually and is essentially bankrupt, it'd never survive and is too small in either case.

 

[Robert]

Always good to read your clarity [MENTION=136108]Donal Cozzie[/MENTION].

 

[James]

Always good to read your clarity [MENTION=136108]Donal Cozzie[/MENTION].

Indeed.
Highly knowledgable.

 

[MenInG]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-partner="tweetdeck"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">“You’re threatening to tear up an international agreement you signed less than two years ago which could cause a trade war with our biggest trading partner at a time we are in a cost of living crisis and an actual war in Europe”<br> <a href="https://t.co/gb7P0Ozy38">pic.twitter.com/gb7P0Ozy38</a></p>— Peter Stefanovic (@PeterStefanovi2) <a href="https://twitter.com/PeterStefanovi2/status/1526252697548210177?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 16, 2022</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Robert]

Lord David Trimble has died

A giant of Northern Irish politics, who with John Hume brokered the Good Friday Agreement at great personal risk. Both were awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.

Lord Trimble: “There are two traditions in Northern Ireland. There are two main religious denominations. But there is only one true moral denomination. And it wants peace.”

Matthew chapter 5 verse 9: Blessed are the peacemakers, for they shall be called the children of God.

 

[Markhor]

A giant of Northern Irish politics, who with John Hume brokered the Good Friday Agreement at great personal risk. Both were awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.

Lord Trimble: “There are two traditions in Northern Ireland. There are two main religious denominations. But there is only one true moral denomination. And it wants peace.”

Matthew chapter 5 verse 9: Blessed are the peacemakers, for they shall be called the children of God.

Trimble's UUP were rewarded by unionist voters for the GFA by getting wiped out by Ian Paisley's hardline DUP.

Unfortunately Trimble's fate highlights why few politicians globally are willing to challenge their own side and make the tough compromises for peace - see Israel.

It's more politically expedient to appease the base, and not to do anything at all even if it means condemning another generation to pointless deaths in neverending conflicts.

Trimble didn't however, and although I'm opposed to what he stood for, he was a courageous man. He knew he'd pay the price for talking to Sinn Fein, but did so anyway because it was right. RIP.

 

[Robert]

Trimble's UUP were rewarded by unionist voters for the GFA by getting wiped out by Ian Paisley's hardline DUP.

Unfortunately Trimble's fate highlights why few politicians globally are willing to challenge their own side and make the tough compromises for peace - see Israel.

It's more politically expedient to appease the base, and not to do anything at all even if it means condemning another generation to pointless deaths in neverending conflicts.

Trimble didn't however, and although I'm opposed to what he stood for, he was a courageous man. He knew he'd pay the price for talking to Sinn Fein, but did so anyway because it was right. RIP.

The centre has been hollowed out with voters moving hard right (DUP) and left (Sinn Fein) at the expense of the UUP and SDLP of John Hume.

But the DUP lost seats at the last elections.

 

[Robert]

Mourners gather for David Trimble's funeral.

Good to see ex-Taoiseach Bertie Aherne who signed the GFA, UUP Leader Doug Beatie (a personal hero of mine for his Army service) and Sinn Fein ex-President Gerry Adams all turn up.

Saluting the passing of a giant.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-northern-ireland-62376086

 

[Robert]

Looks like Sunak and UVDL have sorted the wrinkles In Johnson’s NIP out.

There will now be a ‘green lane’ and ‘red lane’ for goods arriving from GB to NI. Green lane deliveries which are unlikely to enter EU will roll through, though some can be stopped for checks by PSNI. Red Lane goods which may enter Ireland after NI will be stopped and checked. Thereby the Unionists will feel their sovereignty is upheld, while the integrity of the Single Market is maintained.

Stormont will be able to put a brake on new EU legislation affecting NI as long as 30 MLAs agree. So there is a bar to be reached to prevent frivolous or malicious challenges.

Seems like a good compromise to me. Now the DUP will get back to work and Stormont can resume functioning.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-64790193

 

[James]

Must admit I have consciously disconnected from a lot of this stuff now (would probably be too busy to follow it anyway) and am far happier in my day to day life for doing so, but on the surface, this looks like a positive move all round.

 

[Robert]

Must admit I have consciously disconnected from a lot of this stuff now (would probably be too busy to follow it anyway) and am far happier in my day to day life for doing so, but on the surface, this looks like a positive move all round.

It’s a great personal relief to me [MENTION=1842]James[/MENTION].

Sunak the pragmatist has clearly been able to rebuild a level of trust with the EU after Bodge trashed it.

Interesting to see UVDL meet the King - good application of British soft power there.