UK economy watch!

[Technics 1210]

Thought I create a thread related to UK economic news given all the political chaos in the UK.

Start with this piece, and it is not good news!

Britain’s debt outlook cut to negative over political chaos

Britain’s standing in the international money markets was dealt a blow last night when the outlook on the country’s debt was downgraded.

Moody’s, the international ratings agency, lowered its outlook for UK debt to ‘negative’ from ‘stable’ due to the country’s weaker economic strength and being “more susceptible to shocks than previously assumed.” In February Fitch, a rival ratings agency, put Britain on “negative watch”.

Moody’s reconfirmed its Aa2 investment grade rating on Britain’s sovereign debt. A sovereign rating is a measure of a country’s financial strength and a downgrade risks raising borrowing costs for the government. The UK suffered its first setback under David Cameron’s administration when Moody’s downgraded the UK’s AAA rating in 2013, well before the 2016 Brexit referendum, and again in 2017.

However, the agency noted last night that even if Britain negotiated a successful departure from the European Union “it would be optimistic to assume that the previously cohesive, predictable approach to legislation and policymaking in the UK will return once Brexit is no longer a contentious issue, however that is achieved. ”

Moody’s said the risk was that Britain’s £1.8 trillion of public debt, which is more than 80 per cent of annual economic output, would begin to rise. “In the current political climate, Moody’s sees no meaningful pressure for debt-reducing fiscal policies,” it said.

It also noted the government, after taking steps to reduce the budget deficit between 2010 and 2015, had been increasingly willing to “move the goalposts” on fiscal targets in recent years.

“Successive governments have announced large, permanent increases in public expenditures, most notably a large increase in spending on the National Health Service, outside the normal calendar for fiscal policy changes and without detailed policy plans,” it said. The main political parties have promised big spending increases ahead of next month’s election.

Rating agencies attracted a good deal of criticism in the wake of the 2008 credit crisis for failing to spot the warning signs earlier and, for giving favourable ratings to the sub-prime mortgage loans that were one of the prime causes of the global financial meltdown.

In its latest update on the outlook for the British economy, and its overall creditworthiness, Moody’s said: “Events in the House of Commons in recent months have revealed legislators, policymakers and administrators to be unable to arrive at the consensus needed to achieve either a broadly acceptable approach to Brexit, or the continuation of policy in other important areas, for example to address challenges relating to education, productivity, or investment in infrastructure.

“Over the longer term, institutional weakening may also impact the UK’s economic strength, through its effect on the investment climate and on the UK’s attractiveness to skilled and unskilled foreign labor,” Moody’s said.

“In recent years, we have already seen the negative impact this can have, and Moody’s expects this negative influence will likely endure as the exit process continues and uncertainties persist during the subsequent phase of trade negotiations with the EU and with other nations.”

The Treasury did not respond to a request for comment.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/...ut-to-negative-over-political-chaos-w2xrwfmps

Well my fellow Brits, we are in for a long ride! The way I see it is that since the financial crash in 2008, the largest single market and trading bloc in the world, has utterly and miserably failed in living up to its promise of economic prosperity. This next General Election could change all that, or could make matters worse!

The relentless QE by the BoE and ECB has completely failed to prop up any kind of stable economy in a free trade environment spanning 500 Million people. Meager growth of 1% average is not even growth when you have negative interest rates, 2% inflation, and mountain of debt!

This clearly suggests the economic model is broken, and hopefully it will take a few reality checks in the UK to fix it!

In before anyone starts comparing the UK economy with Pakistan/India. We get it, Pakistan's economy is on the up, and India's economy is in decline, but there are other threads for said comparisons.

Happy weekend!

 

[ElRaja]

not looking great, fundamentally not enough entrepreneurialism. for a country with 3 of the top 10 universities in the world the transformation of research specialism into commercially viable businesses is disappointing.

there needs to be some real work done on this, and maybe incentivise indigenous start ups, especially in the more speculative sectors.

the manipulation of growth via monetary policy has reached the point of diminishing real world returns and consumerism, imo, amongst the young is on the wane. need breakthroughs in productivity, and actual productivity improving technology, not just development of superfluous means of entertainment.

 

[Bewal Express]

Everyone wants to spend billions that the country doesn't have. In time there will be a an almighty crash of the ponzi scheme.

 

[Gabbar Singh]

Everyone wants to spend billions that the country doesn't have. In time there will be a an almighty crash of the ponzi scheme.

Sums up how so many modern families choose to live too - everyone wants the latest car, phone, furniture, kitchen etc and thinks nothing of just putting it all on credit. Those who scrimp and save for a rainy day are punished (through things like low interest rates) yet the feckless debt junkies are bailed out time after time.

 

[Bewal Express]

Sums up how so many modern families choose to live too - everyone wants the latest car, phone, furniture, kitchen etc and thinks nothing of just putting it all on credit. Those who scrimp and save for a rainy day are punished (through things like low interest rates) yet the feckless debt junkies are bailed out time after time.

You are not too far off the truth. The Tories are right wing but don't offer any fiscal responsibility, which is the heart of good Conservative govts, they are desperate to copy Trump's populism and irresponsible spending and low taxes neither of which are sustainable. Labour live in cloud cuckoo land and have even less credibility with tax and spend. How i long for the days of John Major and Gordon Brown( not that they didn't make mistakes)

 

[ElRaja]

Sums up how so many modern families choose to live too - everyone wants the latest car, phone, furniture, kitchen etc and thinks nothing of just putting it all on credit. Those who scrimp and save for a rainy day are punished (through things like low interest rates) yet the feckless debt junkies are bailed out time after time.

i partially agree with you, but the problem you have identified is not the only cause, imo bigger causes are lack of financial education and the breakdown of the family complex. a lot of people are simply caught up in keeping up with the Joneses and miss out on the economies of scale of living with their family.

 

[Technics 1210]

Confidence falls to lowest level since 2012

Business confidence has fallen to a seven-year low amid declining optimism in the services and manufacturing sectors, research suggests.

An optimism index by BDO, the accounting firm, fell by 0.67 points last month to 95.59, its weakest since March 2012 and close to the 95 level that signals zero growth.

The report is compiled for BDO by the Centre for Economics and Business Research, a consultancy, by weighting economic data from Britain’s main business surveys, covering more than 4,000 different respondents from companies employing five million people. They include the quarterly CBI industrial trends survey, the Bank of England’s agents’ summary of business conditions and the Markit/CIPS manufacturing and services purchasing managers’ index.

The decline was because of a drop in manufacturing optimism, which fell by 3.38 points in October, and to a lesser extent by the key services sector, which fell by 0.34 points.

Businesses are contending with uncertainty over Britain’s relationship with the European Union, the trade war between America and China and signs of a slowing global economy.

Peter Hemington, a partner at BDO, said that the last time business confidence was so low “was when the country was staggering out of the doldrums caused by the global financial crisis . . . With an unpredictable general election looming, continued political volatility in the UK remains a key driver of falling optimism.”

BDO also produces monthly output and inflation indices. Manufacturing output fell for a 13th consecutive month to 87.1 points, down by 0.9 from September and “well into recessionary territory”. It left the overall business output index at 96.69, down by 0.75 points. The inflation index fell by 1.11 points to 94.25 in October, its lowest level since May 2016, the month before the EU referendum.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/confidence-falls-to-lowest-level-since-2012-nrx0fcpjj

 

[Technics 1210]

not looking great, fundamentally not enough entrepreneurialism. for a country with 3 of the top 10 universities in the world the transformation of research specialism into commercially viable businesses is disappointing.

there needs to be some real work done on this, and maybe incentivise indigenous start ups, especially in the more speculative sectors.

the manipulation of growth via monetary policy has reached the point of diminishing real world returns and consumerism, imo, amongst the young is on the wane. need breakthroughs in productivity, and actual productivity improving technology, not just development of superfluous means of entertainment.

IMO it is time to reduce corporation tax and VAT. Stimulate the consumer market and entice businesses to setup in the UK.

Trying to balance the books and in hope of reducing/paying national debt is a losers game. No point, instead just do what other nations do, pile on the debt!

 

[IMMY69]

IMO it is time to reduce corporation tax and VAT. Stimulate the consumer market and entice businesses to setup in the UK.

Trying to balance the books and in hope of reducing/paying national debt is a losers game. No point, instead just do what other nations do, pile on the debt!

There was a good reason why a country with an aging population of around 65m joined the EU.

 

[ElRaja]

IMO it is time to reduce corporation tax and VAT. Stimulate the consumer market and entice businesses to setup in the UK.

corporate tax should be lowered, most large companies don't pay it anyway and it acts as a barrier to entry for local alternatives.

whilst vat reductions may cause some short term stimulation, encouraging consumerism for its own sake is not the answer, we need an environment where new left field ideas can develop to the point where the efficiencies they bring render a few percentage points on VAT irrelevant.

there's also fundamental issues in British businesses which for the most part cannot compete with the best continental or american companies, inevitably they get bought out by these firms, downsized, streamlined and absorbed into foreign multinationals.

from the grassroots level, British entrepreneurialism needs a reboot but that would become a rather long winded post.

 

[Technics 1210]

There was a good reason why a country with an aging population of around 65m joined the EU.

Yes, it was the EEC in 1973, then a referendum in 1975 to join the EEC. You will not find anyone who would argue against the economic benefits of the EEC, but over decades the EEC evolved into the EU, which is now more of a political union, then an economic one.

The weaknesses of the Eurozone/Single Market are now more prevalent than ever before, especially after 2008. Not to mention the Euro currency itself is under pressure, and there's more QE on the horizon, and above all, the European Central Bank has interest rates set at NEGATIVE 0.40%. Unemployment is rampant, and pension pots decimated.

 

[Technics 1210]

Retail sales figures down after shoppers tighten belts

Retail sales fell unexpectedly last month in a sign that consumers are becoming more cautious about their personal finances.

Sales fell by 0.1 per cent between September and October according to the Office for National Statistics, significantly below analysts’ forecasts of 0.2 per cent growth. Retail sales fell across all the main sectors, which knocked quarterly growth in the three months to October to 0.2 per cent, the slowest since April 2018.

Consumers account for about two thirds of national output and have been the most robust sector of the economy, thanks to sustained wage growth and record employment rates.

“October’s 0.1 per cent month-on-month fall in retail sales volumes was weaker than expected and indicates that consumer spending growth could slow in quarter four from quarter three’s 0.4 per cent.” Thomas Pugh, UK economist at Capital Economics, said.

Annual retail sales were 3.1 per cent, below expectations of 3.7 per cent.

The figures were driven by a 1.3 per cent drop in sales at household goods stores and slow clothing and footwear sales. Online sales rose slightly to 19.2 per cent in October, up from 19 per cent the previous month.

Department stores recorded their strongest month-on-month sales growth this year of 2 per cent, because of promotions and an earlier than usual introduction of Christmas stock.

Economists said the slowdown in demand might reflect emerging weaknesses in the jobs market, which suffered its biggest quarterly drop in more than four years, with the number in work down 56,000 to 32.69 million.

“All main sectors saw falling sales, apart from food shops,” the ONS said.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/cautious-shoppers-bring-surprise-fall-in-sales-c5k6psxz5

I love how the word *unexpectedly* is used. It's a no brainer, the country and its citizens are drowning in debt so it is expected that consumers are out of pocket.

 

[Technics 1210]

Eon to cut thousands of Npower jobs following takeover

Thousands of jobs are to go at Npower as the troubled energy supplier is taken over by its larger rival Eon.

Executives have confirmed that Eon is preparing to cut up to 4,500 jobs from Npower’s 5,700 workforce, in what trade unions called a “body blow” for staff.

Employees were told that the restructuring plans would mean “a significant number of job losses” over the next two years during briefings today, less than a month before Christmas.

Npower, one of the country’s “Big Six” energy suppliers, revealed deepening losses only yesterday as it continued to shed customers and struggled under the price cap. It is owned by the German company Innogy, which was recently acquired by Eon, another German company.

Johannes Teyssen, chief executive of Eon, said: “The UK market is currently particularly challenging. We’ve emphasised repeatedly that we’ll take all necessary action to return our business there to consistent profitability.For this purpose, we’ve put together proposals and already begun discussing them with British unions.”

The company confirmed that it was intensifying what it called “ambitious cost-cutting efforts” without losing sight of customers, telling staff that it had to tackle an “unsustainable business situation”.

Executives have also announced that they plan to shift more than two million Npower household customers across to Eon’s IT platform.

Michael Lewis, chief executive of Eon UK, said: “The proposals we’ve outlined today are in no way a reflection of Npower’s people, who I know work hard to serve customers each and every day.”

Dave Prentis, general secretary of Unison, said that the announcement amounted to a “cruel blow” for employees at Npower. “They’ve been worried about their jobs for months,” he said. “Now their worst fears have been realised, less than a month before Christmas.

“The UK energy market is in real danger of collapse. If nothing is done there could soon be other casualties.”

A GMB spokesman said: “Clearly this announcement will be a body blow to Npower workers across the UK. The government has to urgently wake up to the impact that the price cap is having on good and reasonably well-paid jobs in UK energy companies.

“Npower is a poorly managed company with significant losses in the UK but it is always the workers that face the brunt of poor management coupled with regulation that sends work overseas whilst sacking energy workers in the UK.”

Mr Prentis said that Npower’s woes made a powerful case for nationalising the country’s leading energy suppliers, a policy put forward by the Labour Party in the campaign for the general election next month. “This would preserve jobs, ensure customers get a better deal and allow the UK to meet its carbon-neutral targets,” he said. Unison is a key Labour donor.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/thousands-of-npower-jobs-under-threat-b563nfgqw

Cannot see them blaming Brexit on this one!

 

[shortbread]

The UK economy is severely paying the price of ignoring future industries like tech; Here's an interesting statistic:

Microsoft valuation (Nasdaq): $2.99 trillion
Entire London Stock exchange (close to 2000 companies): $3.18 trillion

Well before the end of this year Microsoft will be worth more than the entire London Stock exchange!

The London listings still revolve around legacy industries like Tobacco, Home building, Oil, Utilities etc... have stagnant stock growth and still look to lure via dividend payments. It's just d̶e̶a̶d̶ in a coma!

 

[FearlessRoar]

Britain's biggest banks have been placed on alert over hundreds of 'rogue' filings which appear to have been lodged at Companies House, the UK’s central corporate register.

Sky News has obtained a note issued by UK Finance, the banking trade association, which warned its members that approximately 800 forms relating to the discharging of financial liabilities were submitted at Companies House late last month.

In the notice to banks - marked as "Urgent" when it was circulated last week - UK Finance said it had alerted both Companies House and the Department for Business and Trade to the issue.

Industry executives pointed to the possibility of an attempted fraud or hacking of the Companies House register, although the circumstances remained unclear on Sunday.

UK Finance said in its memo that a number of members and law firms had "flagged an issue regarding the apparently erroneous satisfaction of security (registered charges) on Companies House relating to a number of live business clients".

In a further update issued on Friday, it said it had been informed that roughly 800 rogue filings related to 190 companies had been submitted, adding: "Companies House have emphasised that an incorrect entry in the register - saying a charge has been satisfied - does not invalidate or cancel that charge.

One source described the situation as "deeply alarming" and said it was disappointing that Companies House had also outlined plans to increase its fees in May "when it was susceptible to rogue corporate filings in this way".

Responding to an enquiry from Sky News, a Companies House spokesperson said: "We are aware of this matter and we are looking into it."

UK Finance declined to comment further.

Banks placed on alert over 'rogue' Companies House filings

The trade association representing Britain’s banks has told members that the UK corporate register is "urgently working" to probe hundreds of "erroneous" forms, Sky News learns.

news.sky.com

 

[ElRaja]

its always fun reading what u wrote in the past, and i have to say i was exactly right. nothing that needed to be addressed have been, and i have never felt greater pessimism about this country's future, and Europe in general in my whole life.

most of this country is a lead weight stuck to a slowly leaking hot air balloon that is london. and even in London the transport system is shot, people seem staid and there is little innovation and investment.

the average graduate salary in London is still about £30k, i have no idea how anyone can make ends meet and have any sort of savings or investments at that kinda level.

entrepreneurialism is at an all time nadir, the country survives on rent seeking industries which move money without creating foundational value.

people works ethic has been blown to smithereens, there is a multitude of excuses and diversions which only keep HR departments afloat and little more.

i always believed this country had a future, till 2012 at least i thought the future was bright, but post covid this country has become a mess, a lot of people abuse wfh rules and try to run with doing the bare minimum.

never have i known so many competent and productive people mention the thought of moving abroad as i have in the last year or two, although most have no idea where they'd go tbh.

unless there is immediate corrective action taken the next decade or two are likely to see the largest brain drain from his country in its history.

 

[gani999]

Going by this video (and others made by the same person), the economic scene in the UK outside of London looks pretty dismal. Empty streets, shuttered homes and shops, crime, etc. All quite depressing. Can't believe how much livelier even developing countries are in comparison.

 

[JaDed]

its always fun reading what u wrote in the past, and i have to say i was exactly right. nothing that needed to be addressed have been, and i have never felt greater pessimism about this country's future, and Europe in general in my whole life.

most of this country is a lead weight stuck to a slowly leaking hot air balloon that is london. and even in London the transport system is shot, people seem staid and there is little innovation and investment.

the average graduate salary in London is still about £30k, i have no idea how anyone can make ends meet and have any sort of savings or investments at that kinda level.

entrepreneurialism is at an all time nadir, the country survives on rent seeking industries which move money without creating foundational value.

people works ethic has been blown to smithereens, there is a multitude of excuses and diversions which only keep HR departments afloat and little more.

i always believed this country had a future, till 2012 at least i thought the future was bright, but post covid this country has become a mess, a lot of people abuse wfh rules and try to run with doing the bare minimum.

never have i known so many competent and productive people mention the thought of moving abroad as i have in the last year or two, although most have no idea where they'd go tbh.

unless there is immediate corrective action taken the next decade or two are likely to see the largest brain drain from his country in its history.

Where abroad are these people thinking of moving?

Also Europe (except UK) actually might have improved economy, even Spain is showing signs of improvement

 

[ElRaja]

Where abroad are these people thinking of moving?

Also Europe (except UK) actually might have improved economy, even Spain is showing signs of improvement

muslim and religious wanna move to the uae, i dont agree with that, think it relies heavily on general economic sentiment and dont have long term growth potential, or anything particularly attractive unless u rich already

a few talking of saudi, altho its only short term, so i dont see how that works as a long term solution, but the amount of money swishing around corporates in saudi projects is crazy at the moment, you could easily work 3 or 4 years and given tax situation set urself up really well. i see the attraction, saudi economy has crazy amounts of endogenous investment.

then theres those who see the income disparity for roles in the US vs Europe and its a no brainer if u can get a job and u can handle American corporate culture (not sure id be able to, lol)

i dont see Europe having much of a better future than the uk, the global economy is bipolar, east and west, Europe has importance by virtue of the size of its market, not innovation, and that's what drives long term growth.

theres only a handful of actual global scale companies that create value in Europe (and all of them are in mature or late stage industries), and the peripheral countries are just a means to depress the currencies of those who do produce.

 

[JaDed]

muslim and religious wanna move to the uae, i dont agree with that, think it relies heavily on general economic sentiment and dont have long term growth potential, or anything particularly attractive unless u rich already

a few talking of saudi, altho its only short term, so i dont see how that works as a long term solution, but the amount of money swishing around corporates in saudi projects is crazy at the moment, you could easily work 3 or 4 years and given tax situation set urself up really well. i see the attraction, saudi economy has crazy amounts of endogenous investment.

then theres those who see the income disparity for roles in the US vs Europe and its a no brainer if u can get a job and u can handle American corporate culture (not sure id be able to, lol)

i dont see Europe having much of a better future than the uk, the global economy is bipolar, east and west, Europe has importance by virtue of the size of its market, not innovation, and that's what drives long term growth.

theres only a handful of actual global scale companies that create value in Europe (and all of them are in mature or late stage industries), and the peripheral countries are just a means to depress the currencies of those who do produce.

Right about Saudi and UAE, US does have a lot of Europeans all of a sudden, I see many Texas in last 1 year with so many cafes opening for them as well by the Europeans(terrible service, great coffee and food).

East Europe namely Estonia is creating a lot of value, I do believe Germans , Dutch and Scandinavian are innovative and not just driven by market but it’s hard to keep up with California innovation due to sheer money and talent settled there now.

Canada is terrible, worst for white collar jobs inspite of so much potential.

China is driving innovation as well but it’s very centric to Chinese ethnicity hard to migrate as such.

US looks to have a hard landing this year in terms of economy but lets see how it goes after that, US goes through overdrive on innovation after an economy crash based on history.

UK just has nothing to offer to anyone except developing nation citizens.. even the food quality is below Europe.

So from all the above I have to say Saudi makes sense for short term, keep kids in Intl schools make money and see after 5 years which west country to migrate to.

 

[shaz619]

UK is driving innovation but mainly focussed on niche and selective markets such as civil and defence aerospace. Beyond that it is a bit grim.

 

[shaz619]

muslim and religious wanna move to the uae, i dont agree with that, think it relies heavily on general economic sentiment and dont have long term growth potential, or anything particularly attractive unless u rich already

a few talking of saudi, altho its only short term, so i dont see how that works as a long term solution, but the amount of money swishing around corporates in saudi projects is crazy at the moment, you could easily work 3 or 4 years and given tax situation set urself up really well. i see the attraction, saudi economy has crazy amounts of endogenous investment.

then theres those who see the income disparity for roles in the US vs Europe and its a no brainer if u can get a job and u can handle American corporate culture (not sure id be able to, lol)

i dont see Europe having much of a better future than the uk, the global economy is bipolar, east and west, Europe has importance by virtue of the size of its market, not innovation, and that's what drives long term growth.

theres only a handful of actual global scale companies that create value in Europe (and all of them are in mature or late stage industries), and the peripheral countries are just a means to depress the currencies of those who do produce.

I’ve heard Saudi are a lot more shrewd now with their offerings and there are a few more barriers compared to 5/6 years ago, in short it’s not so easy to make a big buck there. Same can probably be said about the UAE

 

[shaz619]

Right about Saudi and UAE, US does have a lot of Europeans all of a sudden, I see many Texas in last 1 year with so many cafes opening for them as well by the Europeans(terrible service, great coffee and food).

East Europe namely Estonia is creating a lot of value, I do believe Germans , Dutch and Scandinavian are innovative and not just driven by market but it’s hard to keep up with California innovation due to sheer money and talent settled there now.

Canada is terrible, worst for white collar jobs inspite of so much potential.

China is driving innovation as well but it’s very centric to Chinese ethnicity hard to migrate as such.

US looks to have a hard landing this year in terms of economy but lets see how it goes after that, US goes through overdrive on innovation after an economy crash based on history.

UK just has nothing to offer to anyone except developing nation citizens.. even the food quality is below Europe.

So from all the above I have to say Saudi makes sense for short term, keep kids in Intl schools make money and see after 5 years which west country to migrate to.

Food quality? if you visited a bunch of places in Europe I am certain you’d not find better south asian food then in the UK

 

[shaz619]

UK is driving innovation but mainly focussed on niche and selective markets such as civil and defence aerospace. Beyond that it is a bit grim.

We more focussed on the big corporations compared to start up and medium sized companies which affects growth.

 

[Red-Indian]

I'm not calling for a free-for-all but the UK and the EU definitely need to step back from the amount of regulation they're pushing. At this point, it's actively impeding innovation and growth especially in the cutting edge industries.

 

[Technics 1210]

It's going to get much worse as Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning goes mainstream. BT, RR, Voda have announced job losses citing automation as one of the key drivers.

It also seems the chancellor may have a tweak/surprise to ISAs coming up in the next budget, ISAs that exclusively invest in British companies.

 

[DeadlyVenom]

It's going to get much worse as Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning goes mainstream. BT, RR, Voda have announced job losses citing automation as one of the key drivers.

It also seems the chancellor may have a tweak/surprise to ISAs coming up in the next budget, ISAs that exclusively invest in British companies.

British companies are generally ****.

Nobody wants to invest in them.

I've seen some rumors of how these ISAs could be structured and there are some scary ones.

 

[shortbread]

UK is driving innovation but mainly focussed on niche and selective markets such as civil and defence aerospace. Beyond that it is a bit grim.

We more focussed on the big corporations compared to start up and medium sized companies which affects growth.

Sorry for sounding blunt.... that's sheer bollocks!

What are these 'big' corporations? Microsoft alone equals in value to the entire London Stock Exchange (ie. 2000 odd british listed companies), let that sink in, Microsoft alone equals the entire UK stock exchange! If any innovation is happening that's perhaps in biotech but it's way too niche.

The biggest problem is the UK tech sector is literally non-existent. Name a good future focussed tech company that's come up in the last few decades?

What's worse the entire LSE business revolves around rent seeking elites who do not care for growth and are just greedy for dividends. Now as the UK share market rots the conservatives want to use peoples hard earned pensions to gamble in UK stocks.

The one bright spot that UK has is that the majority of the population is simply oblivious to what's happening and can be easily distracted by the most trivial topics eg. does Megan really like Harry? What's wrong with Kate Middleton's bowel movements? A big benefit of having a stupid populace is that no one is really worried.

This used to be one of the smartest and most dry witted countries on earth. The steady regression has been sad to witness.

 

[Technics 1210]

The FTSE 100 is one of THE WORST markets in the world. It has never broken the 8000 mark, it has traded between 6000 - 7900 with the last decade, and is predominately made up of USA companies that trade in USD, which makes the FTSE 100 half decent for dividends. Apart from this, FTSE 100 is rubbish. Now keep in mind, this also applied when UK was within the EU.

This is why parties like Reform are making ground because they are making the right noises. Lower Corporation tax, lower income tax, lower VAT etc.

We need tax cuts and business incentives to bolster the UK economy, not foreign investments!

 

[shaz619]

Sorry for sounding blunt.... that's sheer bollocks!

What are these 'big' corporations? Microsoft alone equals in value to the entire London Stock Exchange (ie. 2000 odd british listed companies), let that sink in, Microsoft alone equals the entire UK stock exchange! If any innovation is happening that's perhaps in biotech but it's way too niche.

The biggest problem is the UK tech sector is literally non-existent. Name a good future focussed tech company that's come up in the last few decades?

What's worse the entire LSE business revolves around rent seeking elites who do not care for growth and are just greedy for dividends. Now as the UK share market rots the conservatives want to use peoples hard earned pensions to gamble in UK stocks.

The one bright spot that UK has is that the majority of the population is simply oblivious to what's happening and can be easily distracted by the most trivial topics eg. does Megan really like Harry? What's wrong with Kate Middleton's bowel movements? A big benefit of having a stupid populace is that no one is really worried.

This used to be one of the smartest and most dry witted countries on earth. The steady regression has been sad to witness.

I didn’t disregard the lack of progress on the whole, but our focus is a bit too narrow

 

[shaz619]

However, you’re just plain ignorant to overlook defence/aerospace, that’s what we rarely lose focus on

 

[shortbread]

However, you’re just plain ignorant to overlook defence/aerospace, that’s what we rarely lose focus on

What defence and aerospace, the only reason my BAE share price is doing well is because the government is using tax payer's money to buy and send weapons to Ukraine. The moment we stop this lunacy the shares will fall down. Our defence expenditure and recruitment is in doldrums. We're retiring perfectly fine ships, fighters, transport aircraft because the government cannot afford to run them. There's a 6th gen fighter programme ongoing currently that is not fully funded and the defence ministry is running helter-skelter looking for partners knowing fully well funding might dry up. So what defence aerospace are you on about? What was the last domestically developed and manufactured plane, helicopter have you seen in the last 3 decades?

 

[shaz619]

What defence and aerospace, the only reason my BAE share price is doing well is because the government is using tax payer's money to buy and send weapons to Ukraine. The moment we stop this lunacy the shares will fall down. Our defence expenditure and recruitment is in doldrums. We're retiring perfectly fine ships, fighters, transport aircraft because the government cannot afford to run them. There's a 6th gen fighter programme ongoing currently that is not fully funded and the defence ministry is running helter-skelter looking for partners knowing fully well funding might dry up. So what defence aerospace are you on about? What was the last domestically developed and manufactured plane, helicopter have you seen in the last 3 decades?

Both civil and defence, are you exposed to all the programmes which have government gearing subject to UK investment?

And why do you think I picked defence to, precisely because of increasing budget they have each year over other sectors so am not sure why you’re arguing like a granny for the sake of it

 

[JaDed]

Food quality? if you visited a bunch of places in Europe I am certain you’d not find better south asian food then in the UK

Except that.. only South Asian food is good in UK.

 

[shaz619]

Except that.. only South Asian food is good in UK.

It’s a diverse society, you got food from every background here available. It depends on what you like, Turkish, Persian, Syrian, Asian etc it’s all here.

Obviously we don’t pioneer a particular cuisine ourselves besides beans and toast + fish and chips, but there’s so much more bro.

I know muslims working in Germany that are returning here because the food options are limited.

UK is great for food overall imo

 

[JaDed]

We more focussed on the big corporations compared to start up and medium sized companies which affects growth.

Startups make a difference, Intel is gone they are never making it big anymore but their Investment will, esp in another companies.

Startups are still what drives US innovation, UK gives no incentive to start a business.

 

[shaz619]

Startups make a difference, Intel is gone they are never making it big anymore but their Investment will, esp in another companies.

Startups are still what drives US innovation, UK gives no incentive to start a business.

I agree with you, that’s where the bread and butter is and why the US are far ahead

 

[DeadlyVenom]

A few years ago it was only Muslims who thought about moving to the Middle East. Now I'm genuinely seeing white friends and colleagues going.

People have started going for holidays a lot more to Dubai,Qatar and they see Saudi on TV.

Then they come home to pot hole filled roads and councils balancing whether to keep libraries open or to pick up bins.

The country is in terminal decline.

 

[ElRaja]

lots of stuff id wanna quote, but itd get to messy so just a few points to address

its too late to compete with Microsoft, google, etc, these companies have become larger than countries because they are gatekeepers to the global economy, u need their platform to access the global economy in a competitive manner. you need to accept you will have to play second fiddle to the US, but u need to be damn sure your second fiddle, is second and not fifth or sixth. europe as a whole is caught in this malaise so the UK still has an opportunity.

u need to develop industries which can be knowledge exporters, its damn near insanity a country that can produce some of the best engineers and scientists is no where on the power generation scene, nuclear, fission even fusion, there is no investment, had the relevant investments been made the UK could have been a power exporter to a europe trying to hide their russian gas imports.

then you need moonshot startups, there is so much room in AI, in ML, food production, robotic medication, etc in all kinds of new tech that will develop off of that but as has been mentioned, this country has no interest in developing start ups, the amount of money that is thrown into the endless pit that is the public sector, a fraction could be set up as a start up incubator, £1 bill could set up 30 or 40 companies with seed funding a year, u only need one to come off to make the money back. keep a minority stake, so even if foreign companies want a piece they cant take full control, and u can use the dividends to plough back into the fund.

there is literally zero long term or lateral thinking by the country's political class, literally the dumbest in the history of this nation.

 

[aboveandbeyond]

From past experience, towards the end of a Tory government tenure, majority of the public services are left in a precarious position.

So nothing new here.

 

[JaDed]

lots of stuff id wanna quote, but itd get to messy so just a few points to address

its too late to compete with Microsoft, google, etc, these companies have become larger than countries because they are gatekeepers to the global economy, u need their platform to access the global economy in a competitive manner. you need to accept you will have to play second fiddle to the US, but u need to be damn sure your second fiddle, is second and not fifth or sixth. europe as a whole is caught in this malaise so the UK still has an opportunity.

u need to develop industries which can be knowledge exporters, its damn near insanity a country that can produce some of the best engineers and scientists is no where on the power generation scene, nuclear, fission even fusion, there is no investment, had the relevant investments been made the UK could have been a power exporter to a europe trying to hide their russian gas imports.

then you need moonshot startups, there is so much room in AI, in ML, food production, robotic medication, etc in all kinds of new tech that will develop off of that but as has been mentioned, this country has no interest in developing start ups, the amount of money that is thrown into the endless pit that is the public sector, a fraction could be set up as a start up incubator, £1 bill could set up 30 or 40 companies with seed funding a year, u only need one to come off to make the money back. keep a minority stake, so even if foreign companies want a piece they cant take full control, and u can use the dividends to plough back into the fund.

there is literally zero long term or lateral thinking by the country's political class, literally the dumbest in the history of this nation.

Germany and Netherlands will take over ML AI industries in Europe, Sweden might do well too.

Not sure what’s going on with UK colleges but they aren’t as cut throat as they used to be compared to their counterparts.

 

[JaDed]

US has issues too but it gets balanced out due to two party system and different views.

Texas Cali NY Massachusetts keep competing.

Competition unfortunately is the only way to bring about innovation, it’s rough ,bad for mental health but it is what it is.

Even companies like Rain their founder self taught himself everything during his engineering and still
founded such an amazing company, only reason why US still gives hope.

Among big ones only Meta is doing big things Microsoft Google Intel IBM are just enjoying the fruits.

Apple is in the middle.

 

[shaz619]

Startups make a difference, Intel is gone they are never making it big anymore but their Investment will, esp in another companies.

Startups are still what drives US innovation, UK gives no incentive to start a business.

Also, it’s not just US start-ups or medium to large companies locally, some of our more prominent companies in the UK in years that have gone by have been purchased by US companies, I mean there are benefits to us when US based companies are here to but not as much when they takeover innovation orchestrated by UK business

 

[shortbread]

there is literally zero long term or lateral thinking by the country's political class, literally the dumbest in the history of this nation.

Because the current political class is an incest of elites who are familiar with each other and live inside the London bubble. The banking and asset owning class have dictated the economic direction of the country sucking life out of every other sector, society, living standards etc.. etc...

Look at the investor class in Britain, they do not give two hoots about growth in UK companies and simply need to see dividends even if the organisation is being run to the ground. While the general retail investors are pumping money into stocks and shares based in more vibrant stock markets.

 

[JaDed]

Also, it’s not just US start-ups or medium to large companies locally, some of our more prominent companies in the UK in years that have gone by have been purchased by US companies, I mean there are benefits to us when US based companies are here to but not as much when they takeover innovation orchestrated by UK business

That’s true , US does the same to Canadian companies.

Shopify and OpenText are the only anomalies for now.

ARM in UK.

 

[shaz619]

That’s true , US does the same to Canadian companies.

Shopify and OpenText are the only anomalies for now.

ARM in UK.

Any company how big or small can apply for innovation funding through the UK government, have a look at some of the competitions:

Innovation competitions - Innovation Funding Service

apply-for-innovation-funding.service.gov.uk

However, what this wont tell you is this; you need to account for all the costs upfront, and dependent on the project gearing, they may pay something like 40-50% of your costs. What I've found though based on a smaller sample of experiences, you need to pay everything upfront, and then claim the costs quarterly based on the milestones and deliverables monitored by government officers.

I might have this wrong, but how can a small company begin to compete for these competitions against much larger organisations? and on top of that, how can they front a big chunk of the costs upfront ? they'd need some serious financing to begin with and support from the big boy banks; and they are more inclined to help those that pay less than minimum tax.

 

[shaz619]

That’s true , US does the same to Canadian companies.

Shopify and OpenText are the only anomalies for now.

ARM in UK.

USA is eating out pretty much every ones economy apart from Russia and maybe China ? India to be fair are learning from them to when you look at their foothold in the UK and some of the major UK manufacturing they've taken over

 

[Technics 1210]

If the ground doesn't grow anything you have no economy. Amreeka can still feed itself, and their Agricultural industry is the bedrock of their economy. UK on the other hand is solely relying on the financial industry, whether this is via banking, mortgages, off shore accounts, or clearing houses. In particular is the FX trade, where the UK has the unassailable position as the world’s largest FX trading centre, handling $3 TRILLION per day.

Outside of the financial services, UK has nothing. It never did, even when in the EU. Manufacturing exported, no tax incentives for companies or startups (Why do you think the likes of Microsoft, Google, Apples all setup shop in Ireland?). Most of our good are imported.

Tax is killing the UK. Worse part if there is nothing to show for it, not even paying off the national debt, it is just spiraling out of control, which is why our taxes are either being used to fund the welfare system or to pay off government debt.

 

[JaDed]

Any company how big or small can apply for innovation funding through the UK government, have a look at some of the competitions:

Innovation competitions - Innovation Funding Service

apply-for-innovation-funding.service.gov.uk

However, what this wont tell you is this; you need to account for all the costs upfront, and dependent on the project gearing, they may pay something like 40-50% of your costs. What I've found though based on a smaller sample of experiences, you need to pay everything upfront, and then claim the costs quarterly based on the milestones and deliverables monitored by government officers.

I might have this wrong, but how can a small company begin to compete for these competitions against much larger organisations? and on top of that, how can they front a big chunk of the costs upfront ? they'd need some serious financing to begin with and support from the big boy banks; and they are more inclined to help those that pay less than minimum tax.

Manufacturing wise yes, other times with ml al and software they need series funding, which goes at levels.(A,B,C)

Startups also got screwed due to crash of Silicon Valley Bank, which was the best banks for startups, almost a calculated move by VCs to shut it down.

You would still see lot of amazing software companies from Germany Estonia Netherlands Sweden still doing good, UK needs to have it in them to rough it out like.( Spotify, SAP, etc)

People starting up need to definitely have that plan .. if not they wouldn’t anyhow get a funding.

 

[JaDed]

USA is eating out pretty much every ones economy apart from Russia and maybe China ? India to be fair are learning from them to when you look at their foothold in the UK and some of the major UK manufacturing they've taken over

India Bangladesh China have benefited due to US, Pakistan should had easily been on the same boat but ruined it due to silly stuff.

American companies have too much hold over global economy, and people stupidly giving into American cloud computing will realise soon its again American heavy, they did the same mistakes withApp stores and finance (Visa Master).

 

[Mockingbird]

If the ground doesn't grow anything you have no economy. Amreeka can still feed itself, and their Agricultural industry is the bedrock of their economy. UK on the other hand is solely relying on the financial industry, whether this is via banking, mortgages, off shore accounts, or clearing houses. In particular is the FX trade, where the UK has the unassailable position as the world’s largest FX trading centre, handling $3 TRILLION per day.

Outside of the financial services, UK has nothing. It never did, even when in the EU. Manufacturing exported, no tax incentives for companies or startups (Why do you think the likes of Microsoft, Google, Apples all setup shop in Ireland?). Most of our good are imported.

Tax is killing the UK. Worse part if there is nothing to show for it, not even paying off the national debt, it is just spiraling out of control, which is why our taxes are either being used to fund the welfare system or to pay off government debt.

So you are admitting that the NHS is a big mistake?

 

[Technics 1210]

So you are admitting that the NHS is a big mistake?

No idea of the UK economy relevance to the NHS being a big mistake - you are eluding to.

 

[Mockingbird]

No idea of the UK economy relevance to the NHS being a big mistake - you are eluding to.

Approx 43% of the UK income tax goes towards Welfare and Health, which is mainly NHS. Taking NHS out can save approx 20 percent tax for a common man. I was alluding to this fact.

 

[Technics 1210]

Approx 43% of the UK income tax goes towards Welfare and Health, which is mainly NHS. Taking NHS out can save approx 20 percent tax for a common man. I was alluding to this fact.

Don't think taking out the NHS would save 20% for the common man, because the common man will most likely need to pay for some form of private medical insurance for him and his family.

 

[FearlessRoar]

UK inflation pressure stays hot, dashing hopes for June rate cut​

Inflation in Britain eased less than expected and a key core measure of prices barely dropped, prompting investors to pull bets on a Bank of England rate cut next month which could have boosted embattled Prime Minister Rishi Sunak before an election.

The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.3% in the 12 months to April, down sharply from March's 3.2% increase and its lowest since July 2021, the Office for National Statistics said.

But the BoE and economists polled by Reuters had forecast a bigger drop to 2.1%, just above the central bank's 2% target, after a big cut to household energy tariffs in April.

Services inflation - a gauge of domestic price pressure for the BoE and which is also a problem in other European countries - was much higher than expected, and petrol prices rose.

Sterling jumped and investors slashed the chance of a BoE rate cut in June to just 18%, down sharply from 50% on Tuesday.

"This is only one month’s data, but it is enough of a surprise to suggest that the inflation process is not tracking as the BoE had expected," Allan Monks, chief UK economist at JP Morgan, said.

"There is still another labour market and CPI report to come before the June meeting, but it is difficult for us to see what that could realistically do to leave most members feeling confident about cutting in June specifically."

Services inflation inched down to 5.9% from 6.0% in March. The BoE's forecasts and the Reuters poll had pointed to a reading of 5.5%.

Analysts at RBC Capital said the overshoot in services inflation did not appear to be driven by one-off factors, suggesting further stickiness in prices ahead.

"Certainly this morning takes June off the table," Cathal Kennedy, senior UK economist at RBC Capital Markets, said.

"We’ve been saying for some time that we thought services inflation would be a lot harder to get down than perhaps some other people out there thought, particularly with the backdrop of the UK labour market which has loosened but is still very, very tight."

Core inflation, which includes goods but not energy, food and tobacco, also reflected persistent price pressures, with the annual rate falling only to 3.9% from 4.2% in March. The Reuters poll had forecast a reading of 3.6%.

Sunak, who is struggling to woo voters back to his Conservative Party ahead of national elections expected later this year, focused on the fall in headline inflation.

"Today marks a major moment for the economy, with inflation back to normal," he said in a statement.

But the opposition Labour Party - far ahead of Sunak's Conservatives in the opinion polls - said voters were still under pressure from their finances.

"Prices in the shops have soared, mortgage bills have risen and taxes are at a 70-year high," Labour's finance spokeswoman Rachel Reeves said.

Wednesday's data means Britain has a lower rate of inflation than the United States, Canada, France and Germany. Japan is yet to report April inflation data. Italy's inflation rate is 0.9%.

Still, Britain ranks poorly among Western European countries for its inflation record since 2020, with consumer prices up by more than 22% over that time frame - with only the Netherlands, Austria and Germany faring as badly.

Headline inflation's swift fall from a high of 11.1% in October 2022 now appears to have run its course.

The BoE has forecast the CPI to rise again later this year to end 2024 at around 2.6%.

Recent labour market data has shown private sector regular wage growth eased only marginally in the three months to March, keeping the BoE on alert about inflationary heat in the economy.

Separate ONS data on Wednesday dealt a further setback to Sunak and finance minister Jeremy Hunt, showing public borrowing in April was higher than expected, which raising questions about their ability to deliver tax cuts to voters before the election.

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-inflation-rate-slows-23-april-2024-05-22/?taid=664de7a865310900010c3026&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

 

[FearlessRoar]

Working from home is good for the UK economy because people are more productive when they are 'happy at home', says business secretary Jonathan Reynolds amid workers' rights row​

The new Business Secretary has backed remote working, saying it is good for the economy because people are more productive when they are 'happy at home'.

Jonathan Reynolds said he was happy for staff in the Department for Business and Trade he leads to work from 'in any part of the UK' where it is possible.

His remarks further signalled the new government's U-turn from the previous Tory administration's attempts to get workers back to the office.

The previous government told officials to spend at least 60 per cent of their time – the equivalent of three days in a week – in the office.

But speaking to the Sunday Telegraph today Mr Reynolds said: 'You do your best work when you're happy at home and when you're happy at work, you're happy at home.

'For this department, which employs nearly 8,000 people, I want it to be a department where people can, as much as possible, live in any part of the UK and work for it.

'It's a UK-wide department with an international remit, but also one that is UK-wide. I think it's incredibly important.

'Sometimes, I've got people in the room, sometimes I've got people at home. Sometimes I've got people in many of the different offices that we have – I often have people who are in completely different time zones. I think being open to that kind of talent makes the organisation I lead far more effective. I think a lot of business leaders recognise that.

'Look at the UK compared to other European countries – we do have a very pronounced regional inequality housing market that's very different in different parts of the UK. So where businesses can be open to UK-wide talent and have the opportunity to access that talent, I think that's got to be a good thing.'

Last month Cabinet ministers backed civil servants working from home in a green light for 'WFH Whitehall' – as Home Office bosses struggle to get staff to come in even two days a week.

Transport Secretary Louise Haigh and Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner told staff they support 'flexible working'.

Their comments have been interpreted by civil servants as a 'relaxation' of the drive to force them back to the office.

Meanwhile the team at the Home Office tasked with tackling illegal migrants is struggling to impose its own attendance policy.

In an email leaked to The Mail on Sunday, a senior official told the Immigration Enforcement unit that too many of them are failing to comply with the 'minimum' attendance policy of two days a week – and those who ignore the '40 per cent' rule from this month onwards would be penalised.

Civil servants faced heavy criticism for continuing to work from home after the pandemic and the last Government tried to force thousands back to the office.

Former Cabinet Office minister Jacob Rees-Mogg famously left notes on officials' desks when they worked from home saying he was sorry to have missed them.

Fears have been raised that Labour is plotting to rush through new workers' rights without a debate or vote in Parliament.

Under the biggest reform of employment rights in a generation, staff will be able to demand flexible hours from their first day in a new job and win the 'right to switch off' outside office hours.

The plans have alarmed business leaders and prompted predictions of a flood of tribunal cases brought by employees refused permission to work a four-day week.

Working from home is good for the UK economy says business secretary

Jonathan Reynolds said he was happy for staff in the Department for Business and Trade he leads to work from 'in any part of the UK' where it is possible.

www.dailymail.co.uk