Which country has most to gain from the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan?

[MenInG]

China has played a constructive role in promoting peace and reconciliation in Afghanistan and is welcome to contribute to the rebuilding of the country, Taliban spokesman Suhail Shaheen told Chinese state media.

The Taliban seized control over the weekend in an upheaval that sent thousands of civilians and Afghan military allies fleeing for safety. Many fear a return to the group's strict interpretation of Islamic law imposed during the previous Taliban rule that ended 20 years ago.

In dealing with the Taliban, an increasingly powerful China may be able to leverage the fact that unlike Russia and the United States, it has not fought in Afghanistan.

"China is a big country with a huge economy and capacity — I think they can play a very big role in the rebuilding, rehabilitation, reconstruction of Afghanistan," Shaheen told CGTN television in an interview late on Thursday.

During Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's meeting with a Taliban delegation in the northern Chinese port city of Tianjin last month, he said he hoped Afghanistan could adopt a moderate Islamist policy.

China has cited religious extremism as a destabilising force in its western Xinjiang region and has long worried that Taliban-controlled territory would be used to harbour separatist forces.

DAWN

 

[WhenSultansBowled]

China has played a constructive role in promoting peace and reconciliation in Afghanistan and is welcome to contribute to the rebuilding of the country, Taliban spokesman Suhail Shaheen told Chinese state media.

The Taliban seized control over the weekend in an upheaval that sent thousands of civilians and Afghan military allies fleeing for safety. Many fear a return to the group's strict interpretation of Islamic law imposed during the previous Taliban rule that ended 20 years ago.

In dealing with the Taliban, an increasingly powerful China may be able to leverage the fact that unlike Russia and the United States, it has not fought in Afghanistan.

"China is a big country with a huge economy and capacity — I think they can play a very big role in the rebuilding, rehabilitation, reconstruction of Afghanistan," Shaheen told CGTN television in an interview late on Thursday.

During Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's meeting with a Taliban delegation in the northern Chinese port city of Tianjin last month, he said he hoped Afghanistan could adopt a moderate Islamist policy.

China has cited religious extremism as a destabilising force in its western Xinjiang region and has long worried that Taliban-controlled territory would be used to harbour separatist forces.

DAWN

China's investments in Afghanistan

This deserves a thread of its own.

This will be the first time in history of Afghanistan that a superpower will be coming in their territory to build, instead of destroying. A truly unique event.

Sometimes I wonder what if Americans have used trillions and 20 years to build, instead of destroying. Only a fraction of lives would have been lost and they would have a real proper presence in the region...

Indians have already started to push the Chinaphobia. So that's that.

 

[Last Monetarist]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/20/vladimir-putin-warns-west-to-stop-meddling-in-afghanistan

Vladimir Putin has demanded that countries not interfere in Afghanistan after the fall of Kabul, saying the west “must stop the irresponsible policy of imposing foreign values from abroad”.

In extended remarks, Putin said he hoped the Taliban would “guarantee the security of locals and foreign diplomats” and that the country would not break apart following the withdrawal of US-led forces.

“You can’t call it a success,” he said when asked about the US-led intervention in Afghanistan, which was launched in 2001 after the 9/11 terrorist attacks in New York and Washington DC. “But it’s not in our interests right now to stand on this point and talk about this as a failure. We were interested in the situation in the country being stable.”

Speaking at the Kremlin during a “farewell summit” with Angela Merkel, the outgoing German chancellor, Putin said he was worried that militants from Afghanistan would try to infiltrate nearby countries under the guise of refugees. Russia has held military exercises with central Asian states and with China in recent weeks as concerns have grown that the Taliban’s return to power could lead to border clashes.

Putin attacked the west’s support for the previous Afghan government, saying it was counterproductive to try to “build democracy in other countries according to foreign templates”.

The remarks clearly addressed a key dispute between Moscow and the west that has played out in the conflicts in Syria and Libya and even over protests in Russia itself, as Putin has accused the west of backing his opposition.

Regional powers such as Russia, China and especially Pakistan are expected to increase their influence in Afghanistan as the western coalition executes a hasty and chaotic withdrawal from the country. The Russian embassy has remained open and maintained contacts with the Taliban as the militant group has assumed control for the first time since 2001.

Merkel has met with Putin more than 30 times over her 15 years as Germany’s leader, and has lobbied vocally for maintaining a dialogue with Russia even as many other countries in Europe believe Putin can no longer be reasoned with.

During the press conference, she called on Russia to release the opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who is in prison on a conviction that is clearly political. Navalny was poisoned with a novichok agent in a failed attempt on his life one year ago on Friday.

“I demanded the release of Alexei Navalny and emphasised that we will continue following this case,” Merkel said. On Friday the UK sanctioned seven members of Russia’s FSB security service accused of participating in the nerve agent attack.

The two leaders also discussed the war in Donbass, where Russia has complained about a stalled peace process between the government in Kyiv and the separatist movement it controls in the country’s south-east.

Shortly after the two leaders met, Russia declared TV Rain and several other prominent independent media to be “foreign agents”, in the latest salvoes of a broad crackdown on press freedom in the country.

Despite the tensions between the two leaders, the summit began with a convivial air, as Putin delivered Merkel a bouquet in the Kremlin during what the German leader called “my farewell meeting … but also a working one”.

Putin called Germany “one of the main partners for us in Europe and in the world, in part because of your efforts over the past 16 years,” as he cast Merkel a fleeting smile before the talks began.

 

[MenInG]

When US and European governments raced to get their citizens and Afghan colleagues out of Kabul this week, Russia was one of very few countries not visibly alarmed by the Taliban takeover.

Russian diplomats described the new men in town as "normal guys" and argued that the capital was safer now than before. President Vladimir Putin said on Friday that the Taliban's takeover was a reality they had to work with.

It is all a far cry from the disastrous nine-year war in Afghanistan that many Russians remember from propping up Kabul's communist government in the 1980s.

Warm words for Taliban

Unlike most foreign embassies in the capital, Russia says its diplomatic mission remains open and it's had warm words for the new rulers. Ambassador Dmitry Zhirnov met a Taliban representative within 48 hours of the takeover and said he had seen no evidence of reprisals or violence.

Moscow's UN representative Vassily Nebenzia spoke of a bright future of national reconciliation, with law and order returning to the streets and of "the ending of many years of bloodshed".

President Putin's special envoy to Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, even said the Taliban were easier to negotiate with than the old "puppet government" of exiled President Ashraf Ghani.

Moscow has had little time for Mr Ghani: its diplomats claimed this week he had fled with four cars and a helicopter full of cash - accusations he dismissed as lies.

Charting Russia's improving ties

Russia is not racing to recognise the Taliban as Afghanistan's rulers, but there has been an apparent softening of rhetoric. State news agency Tass this week replaced the term "terrorist" with "radical" in its reports on the Taliban.

Moscow has been building contacts with the Taliban for some time. Even though the Taliban have been on Russia's list of terrorist and banned organisations since 2003, the group's representatives have been coming to Moscow for talks since 2018.

Russia has not yet recognised the Taliban as Afghanistan's new government

The former Western-backed Afghan government accused Russia's presidential envoy of being an open supporter of the Taliban and of excluding the official government from three years of Moscow talks.

Mr Kabulov denied that and said they were ungrateful. But as far back as 2015 he said Russia's interests coincided with the Taliban when it came to fighting Islamic State (IS) jihadists.

That did not go unnoticed in Washington. US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson accused Russia in August 2017 of supplying arms to the Taliban, a remark that Moscow rejected and described as "perplexing".

The foreign ministry in Moscow said it had "asked our American colleagues to provide evidence, but to no avail… we do not provide any support to the Taliban".

In February this year, Mr Kabulov angered the Afghan government by praising the Taliban for fulfilling its side of the Doha agreements "immaculately" while accusing Kabul of sabotaging them.

Focus on regional security

Despite its closer ties with the Taliban, Moscow is for now staying pragmatic, watching developments and not removing the group from its terror list just yet. President Putin said he hoped the Taliban would make good on its promises to restore order. "It's important not to allow terrorists to spill into neighbouring countries," he said.

The key factors shaping Russia's policy are regional stability and its own painful history in Afghanistan. It wants secure borders for its Central Asian allies and to prevent the spread of terrorism and drug trafficking.

When the US targeted the Taliban after the 9/11 attacks and set up bases in former Soviet states in the region, Russia initially welcomed the move. But relations soon grew strained.

Earlier this month Russia held military exercises in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, aimed at reassuring Central Asian countries, some of which are military allies of Moscow.

Last month Russia obtained Taliban assurances that any Afghan gains wouldn't threaten its regional allies and that they would continue to fight IS militants.

Russia stresses it has no interest in sending troops to Afghanistan, and it is not hard to see why. It fought a bloody and, many would argue, pointless war there in the latter years of the Soviet Union in the 1980s.

What began as a 1979 invasion to prop up a friendly regime lasted nine years and cost the lives of 15,000 Soviet personnel.

It turned the USSR into an international pariah, with many countries boycotting the 1980 Moscow Olympics. It became a massive burden on the crumbling Soviet economy.

While the Soviet Union installed a government in Kabul led by Babrak Karmal, the US, Pakistan, China, Iran and Saudi Arabia supplied money and arms to the mujahideen, who fought the Soviet troops and their Afghan allies.

The Soviets were eventually forced to leave Afghanistan after a guerrilla campaign by mujahideen

Many of those killed were teenage Soviet army conscripts, and the war drove home a realisation of just how little the Soviet authorities cared about their own people. The war is widely thought to have hastened the end of the Soviet Union, at least in part, by stirring disillusionment with its rulers.

The war ended with an ignominious military withdrawal in February 1989.

Many Russians have painful memories of the nine years spent fighting a war in the final years of the Soviet Union

Fears for the future

Russia may have given the impression of being prepared for the Taliban's sweep to power, but some experts believe Moscow was taken by surprise as much as everyone else.

"We cannot talk about any strategy from Moscow," says Andrey Serenko from the Russian Centre for Contemporary Afghanistan Study who sees decision being made on the hoof. "Moscow is worried about being late to the reshaping of the regional architecture."

Others in Moscow are wary of what Taliban rule might bring.

Andrei Kortunov, head of the Russian International Affairs Council think tank, believes they will struggle to control the entire country, especially the north, and that could threaten Russia and its neighbours.

"Perhaps, some cells of al-Qaeda, perhaps of Isis, based in Afghanistan, would instigate some actions in Central Asia," he says.

He also fears a sharp deterioration in the Afghan economy, which could in turn prompt further instability.

BBC

 

[OMB]

Pakistan's strategic interest in Afghanistan is to counter Indian influence, says US report

The report for the quarter April 1 to June 30 said the Pakistani government is concerned that a civil war in Afghanistan would have destabilising effects on Pakistan, including an influx of refugees and providing a potential safe haven for anti-Pakistan militants.

Pakistan's strategic security objectives in Afghanistan almost certainly continue to be countering Indian
influence and mitigating spillover of the Afghan civil war into Pakistani territory, a US government report has said, citing inputs from the Defence Intelligence Agency.

"Pakistan continues to support peace talks, while maintaining ties with the Afghan Taliban," US Department of State Office of the Inspector General noted in its latest quarterly report on Afghanistan.

"According to the DIA, Pakistan's strategic security objectives in Afghanistan almost certainly continue to be countering Indian influence and mitigating spillover into the Pakistani territory," the report said.

The report for the quarter April 1 to June 30 said the Pakistani government is concerned that a civil war in Afghanistan would have destabilising effects on Pakistan, including an influx of refugees and providing a potential safe haven for anti-Pakistan militants.

During the quarter, financial contributions to the Afghan Taliban increased in the Pakistan border regions, according to media reports, citing eyewitness sources. Solicitation efforts traditionally targeted mosques, but Afghan Taliban militants now openly visit the bazaar areas in nearby Pakistani towns, it said.

"The militants typically solicit contributions of USD 50 or more from shopkeepers. Local residents told reporters that solicitation efforts were now commonplace in the towns and cities of Quetta, Kuchlak Bypass, Pashtun Abad, Ishaq Abad, and Farooqia," it said.

According to the report, the DIA, citing media reports, said that Iran welcomes the withdrawal of US and coalition forces from Afghanistan but "almost certainly" remains concerned about the resulting instability in Afghanistan.

According to the DIA, Iran will continue to pursue influence in any future Afghan government through relations with the Afghan government, the Taliban, and power brokers, but Iran opposes the reestablishment of the Taliban's Islamic Emirate, it said.

As a resurgent Taliban continues to occupy new territory and an overtaxed Afghan National Defence Security Force is increasingly unable to provide security in certain areas, Afghan power brokers have increasingly begun raising private militias, it said, citing media reports.

"During the quarter, leaders related to the Northern Alliance spoke openly of a 'second resistance' to the Taliban, and some of the leaders began to mobilise anti-Taliban forces under their respective commands," the report said.
The Northern Alliance comprised militias of primarily Tajik, Uzbek and Hazara ethnicity, while the Taliban was largely of Pashtun ethnicity. The period of direct conflict between Northern Alliance and the Taliban included significant violence, often targeting civilians because of their ethnicity.

According to the Afghanistan Analysts Network, a resumption of conflict between the Taliban and the elements, which formerly made up the Northern Alliance risks a recurrence of such violence.

In April, Ahmed Massoud -- a militia commander and son of the Northern Alliance's most prominent leader Ahmed Shah Massoud killed by al-Qaeda shortly before the attacks of September 11, 2001 -- said in a media interview that his followers were prepared for the "failure of peace".

In May, Massoud told reporters that over 100,000 militia leaders, fighters and other stakeholders in northern Afghanistan have pledged support to his anti-Taliban movement. He said public concerns about the stagnant peace process, US withdrawal of troops and apparent Taliban gains against the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) have led to an increasing number of Afghans to take
up arms and organise independently, the report noted.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...ofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

 

[UzmanBeast]

Look through the perspectives of these countries -

Pakistan: If the Taliban can bring stability to Afghanistan, it will reduce a lot of pressure on the government and allow us to focus on other objectives. After the political climate settles down, we can approach the Taliban (assuming they are still in power), and discuss where relations stand and what to do to move forward. I think Pakistan will have to use its influence on the Taliban to keep them at bay, making sure that they are not sponsoring terrorist activities in Pakistan. This is the biggest gain that Pakistan can make, because by reducing terrorist activities sponsored by Afghanistan and those who hold the strings on their hands, we would be able to slowly focus our attention elsewhere. Peace talks with India have gone down the drain, and if the Taliban can stabilize the region, it will open up trade and investment opportunities for Pakistan, especially with the rich mineral deposits that Afghanistan has. If done strategically, Pakistan and China could bear the fruit of large-scale investment in Afghanistan, but such investment should be done in things which can be recuperated in case of another conflict. Afghanistan holds the key for Pakistan to reach more countries like Uzbekistan, perhaps extending the functionality of the CPEC corridor for neighboring countries to exploit as well, such as Afghanistan, Iran, Turkey, Uzbekistan, and more. Pakistan has a lot to gain, and could become the gateway for China to reach more markets in the Middle East, strengthening the relations of such countries and forming a new belt of economic growth.

Afghanistan: This turmoil will hardly spell anything good for Afghanistan's citizens at the moment, but the Taliban would know the great prospects of economic growth that lie on their soil. Peace in Afghanistan would help create a pathway for economic growth and development for the region, and could uplift their citizens from the struggles they face, create jobs, and make them a demanding market in years to come. People are slaves to money, so whilst the US will object along with the EU at the moment, Afghanistan should know that once they start churning out the cash, these countries will come begging for their natural resources.

Russia: Perhaps the most well-concealed viewpoint, but the Russians will know that they have a lot to gain from peace in Afghanistan. Like China, it will open them to new investment opportunities and trade mechanisms to reach other parts of the Middle East, something that is worth the risk in their eyes. Pakistan must use this to its advantage and create strategic relations with Russia, a country that can be of great use to us.

China: For China, this situation smells of economic gain. Stabilizing Afghanistan can be done if China dumps large-scale investments in the country to create jobs and support the Taliban government to gain public support, assuming they avoid conducting human rights abuses. China will be talking with Pakistan to create strong ties with Afghanistan, allowing CPEC operations to reach other parts of the Middle East, allowing them to truly dominate Middle Eastern markets, completely blocking the West out of Asia.

US + INDIA + UAE: These countries will be concerned about the fact that peace in Afghanistan spells the dominance of China, Russia, and Pakistan in the Middle East. There is a lot of economic growth to be had, and these countries won't be a part of such plans, which means that they could lose out on potentially billions of dollars worth of economic prospects. Because of their loyalty to one another, and to Israel as well, they will at first try and apply sanctions on countries dealing with the Taliban. This move will not harm Russia, Pakistan, or China much because the influence of the US is not enough to get allies to look away from such a great opportunity of economic growth. India is already trying to talk with China, and they know what they would miss if they aren't part of this arrangement.

 

[Last Monetarist]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/25/taliban-capture-more-than-100-mi17-helicopters-afghan-armed-forces-russia-says

The Taliban have captured more than 100 Russian-made helicopters in various states of operability, the head of a Russian state arms exporter has said, but will be largely unable to use them with little access to maintenance crews and spare parts.

As the Taliban overran the Afghan army and took control of large stores of arms and vehicles, it also captured at least 100 Mi-17 Hip helicopters, a Russian-made transport aircraft procured by the US for the Afghan armed forces because it was comparatively cheaper and easier to fly than US-made UH-60 Black Hawks.

“The helicopter fleet there is large – more than 100 Mi-17 helicopters of various types,” said Alexander Mikheev, the head of the Russian state exporter Rosoboronexporter, according to the Interfax news agency. “Of course, this fleet requires repair, maintenance and spare parts supply.” A large portion of the fleet could already be grounded, he said.

Mikheev’s estimate for the number of Russian-made helicopters in Afghanistan is significantly higher than the reported inventory. A July report from the US special inspector general for Afghanistan reconstruction (Sigar) said that the Afghan military had 56 Mi-17 helicopters, of which just 32 were usable and in the country. The Mi-17 is the export version of Russia’s Mi-8 helicopter, which is manufactured at two plants in Kazan and Ulan-Ude in Russia.

How many of those helicopters are now in flying condition is unclear, as the US drawdown of its armed forces and the Taliban onslaught have taken their toll on the Afghan air force’s readiness. Videos had surfaced of Taliban fighters flying in an Mi-17 earlier this month. But there are no signs yet that the Taliban are deploying the helicopters in combat operations.

The US had shifted to providing Black Hawks to Afghanistan in recent years, in part because of restrictions on working with Russian weapons manufacturers and exporters of the Mi-17. But far fewer Afghan crews had been trained to maintain the aircraft. According to Sigar, the readiness of the Black Hawk fleet fell by half to just 39% in the period from April to June as aircraft maintenance contractors were pulled out.

For years the fleet of Mi-17s made up the backbone of the Afghan air force, working regularly to transport troops, deliver ammunition and evacuate casualties. The US began procuring Mi-17 helicopters in 2005, buying at least 50 from the Russian state exporter before plans to buy an addition 30 helicopters ran into opposition in Congress in 2013.

The Pentagon had pressed for the deal to go through. “They’ve been using it for years,” the then-defense secretary, Chuck Hagel, said in house testimony in April 2013, the Washington Post reported. “Easy maintenance, unsophisticated. We can get it pretty quickly. That’s the one they want.”

While Afghans had increasingly been able to take up maintenance of the comparatively simple aircraft, obtaining spare parts amid cool relations between Moscow and Washington had become a problem.

“As soon as the servicing personnel stop working, the equipment according to Russian standards becomes non-flying,” Mikheev said.

As the Taliban closed in on Kabul, dozens of Afghan pilots fled with their military aircraft across the border into Uzbekistan. A statement by the Uzbekistan government said that 46 Afghan aircraft, including 24 helicopters, had been forced to land in the central Asian country. Analysis of satellite photos of the aircraft shows that 19 appear to be Mi-17s and nine are Black Hawks.

Russia on Wednesday announced that it would begin evacuating as many as 500 of its citizens from Afghanistan on four transport planes. The country’s foreign ministry has said it will not close its embassy in the country and has held security consultations with Taliban officials since the fall of Kabul last week.

 

[cric_man]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/25/taliban-capture-more-than-100-mi17-helicopters-afghan-armed-forces-russia-says

Majority (around 46) of serviceable aircraft (both helos and fixed wing) were flown out of Afghanistan into Uzbekistan by ANA pilots. I do not believe there are many flyable helicopters available to AT especially the gunships such as MI35 or the AH6.

 

[MenInG]

Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi, who recently concluded a four-nation tour of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Iran, has said that Afghanistan's neighbours were "fully aware" of the situation in Kabul and their approach towards the issue "was realistic".

In a statement issued on Saturday, the foreign minister detailed his findings after holding dialogues with regional leadership surrounding Afghanistan. "I had the opportunity to learn about their views on Afghanistan during my four-nation tour," he said.

"The entire region will benefit if there is peace and stability in Afghanistan," Qureshi said, adding that the Taliban leadership was also in contact with all the countries.

"The people of Afghanistan have been dealing with wars for decades and want peace. They are suffering for the mistakes made in the past. We need to learn from the mistakes made in the past so that they are not repeated."

If there is a positive message coming from Afghanistan, it should be encouraged, Qureshi said, adding that isolating Afghanistan would be detrimental to all.

The minister said the world was "expressing confidence" in Pakistan, adding that the country's role as a mediator in Afghanistan had also been praised.

"Pakistan is helping evacuate the diplomatic staff of several countries from Afghanistan," he said. "Pakistan International Airlines has played an important role in this regard."

Commenting on neighbouring India, he said that it was at the top of the list of "spoilers" in the region. He said India was carrying out "negative activities" to harm Pakistan and was bent upon destroying peace in the region.

The minister denied that the border with Afghanistan had been closed, adding that only "border management measures" have been taken.

DAWN

 

[OMB]

ETIM may shift to ISKP with Taliban-China alliance over Xinjiang

UN reports indicate that around 500 fighters of East Turkestan Islamic Movement form the bulk of Taliban force along with Tajiks, Uzbeks, Hazara and Chechen fighters not Pashtuns in Badakhshan province adjoining Chinese Xinjiang via Wakhan corridor.

With the US completely handing over Kabul and the country to the Sunni Pashtun Islamists on August 31, the fundamental question from the Indian perspective is whether Afghanistan will stabilize under the American army fatigue and M-4 carbine carrying Taliban or the latest Islamic emirate will still carry the burden of history and remain unstable as ever. UK, Soviets and now US have burnt their hands in Afghanistan and presumably have no appetite for any military adventure in that country. Will China with its client state Pakistan, the mother of Taliban and all assorted terrorist groups, will be able to capitalize on the situation with the former exploiting the mineral resources of Afghanistan under the garb of Belt Road Initiative (BRI) and Rawalpindi getting its so-called strategic depth against India?

Despite Beijing’s tremendous financial and military clout and its hold on the Pakistan’s military and civilian set-up, the answer to the above questions is no as Afghanistan has been and will be hopelessly split on tribal and ethnic lines and there are fractures within the ultra-conservative Pashtuns. Already, there are intelligence reports coming about infighting in Kandahar among the Taliban leadership for the share of political pie in Kabul.

While the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) unlike the US and Soviets is not expected cross the Rubicon by becoming political or militarily active in Afghanistan, it will surely use its new friend, the Taliban, for taking action against some 500 East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) fighters whose goal is to liberate Xinjiang Uighurs from the yoke of Beijing. The ETIM fighters are mostly located in Badakshan province in north Afghanistan which links with Xinjiang in China via the Wakhan corridor. Even though the Taliban have traditionally a close relationship with the ETIM, the Pashtuns are concentrated in south and its is the minority Tajiks, Uzbeks, Hazaras, Uighur and Chechen who comprise the bulk of Taliban cadre in north Afghanistan. If the Taliban start harassing the Afghan minorities, it is these non-Pashtun elements who will join the core of Panjshir resistance in future. Already, intelligence reports from Afghanistan and Turkey indicate that the ETIM group will shift its allegiance to Islamic State of Khorasan Province (ISKP) as they fear Taliban will act against them and hand them over to the MSS, the Chinese secret service. It is for this very reason that China wants US to redesignate ETIM as a global terrorist group, which is rather rich for a country that sat on the UN designation of Jaish-e-Mohammed chief Masood Azhar as global terrorist for nearly three years.

The other Chinese interest in Taliban regime in Kabul is to ask the Islamist leadership of Sunni Pashtun force to put pressure on their blood brother, the Tehreek-e-Taliban, across the Durand line to buy peace for their CPEC project in Pakistan. While the TTP is attacking the Chinese nationals involved in CPEC projects in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) and Occupied Kashmir, the Balochistan insurgents are militarily taking on both the Chinese and the Pakistanis in the Gwadar deep sea project. While the TTP has sworn allegiance (Bayat) to Taliban’s never to be seen supreme leader Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada, it has made it amply clear that it will continue to target the Rawalpindi GHQ from within Pakistan and does not need the safe terror sanctuary of Afghanistan.

China’s client state Pakistan may be gloating about Taliban breaking the shackles of slavery by humiliating the US forces in Afghanistan, but the future does not look so rosy for Islamabad as billions of dollars’ worth of aid in the name of war against terror from west will dry up. US and West were giving aid and grants to Pakistan, China gives only loans and that too on a souped-up interest rate and collaterals.

While Pakistan may get deniability of terror attacks against India by allowing all terror factories to shift to Afghanistan under Taliban, the economic and military gap between New Delhi and Islamabad is ever widening under the Modi regime and there is a sea change from India of the 1990s. With the abrogation of article 370 and 35 A in August 2019, the union territory of Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh is directly under control of the Central Government and the room for Pakistan supported Hurriyat and other local parties has nearly disappeared.

To top it all, the Modi regime refuses to get black-mailed over Pakistan’s nuclear status and is ready to militarily respond to any terror attack inspired and orchestrated by Rawalpindi. Fact is that actually the strategic space for Pakistan has shrunk with China demanding its share of pie for CPEC and resurgent Taliban becoming the radicalizing force for not only all the Pashtuns on both sides of Durand Line, which is not recognized by Taliban, but also jihadists of all genre in the region. US is gone and the new Great Game has just begun.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/etim-may-shift-to-iskp-with-taliban-china-alliance-over-xinjiang-101630304620049.html

 

[OMB]

Indian envoy meets Taliban representative in Doha after complete US troops' withdrawal

India flagged concern that Afghanistan’s soil should not be used for anti-Indian activities and terrorism in any manner as US-led foreign troops have completely pulled out from the region.

Indian envoy to Qatar met the head of Taliban's political office in Doha in a first formal diplomatic contact, the ministry of external affairs said on Tuesday. The meeting between Indian ambassador Deepak Mittal, and Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanekzai, the head of the Taliban’s Political Office in Doha, took place at the Indian Embassy at the request of the Taliban side, according to the ministry.

"Discussions focused on safety, security and early return of Indian nationals stranded in Afghanistan. The travel of Afghan nationals, especially minorities, who wish to visit to India also came up," the ministry said in a statement.

During the meeting, India flagged concern that Afghanistan’s soil should not be used for anti-Indian activities and terrorism in any manner as US-led foreign troops have completely pulled out from the region. The ministry said that the Taliban Representative assured that India's concerns would be "positively addressed."

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/indian-envoy-meets-taliban-representative-in-doha-after-complete-us-troops-withdrawal-101630412560924.html

 

[MenInG]

'Pakistan to co-exist with Taliban, approach will be realistic': FM Qureshi

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan is keen on getting off the Financial Action Task Force's grey list and has undertaken various steps to ensure that, said Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi Friday, as he held a joint press conference with the United Kingdom Secretary of State for Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Affairs Dominic Raab.

Qureshi said that through such dialogues with the British government representatives, Pakistan upgrades its relations with the UK to a higher level.

He said Pakistan had made "tremendous progress" on getting out of FATF's grey list. "We have taken legislative steps, administrative steps and concrete steps that are being taken," he said.

FM Qureshi said he discussed Pakistan's name on the UK's Red List, adding that he told the British foreign secretary how people in Pakistan felt about it and "what needs to be done to take Pakistan's name off the Red List and in to the Amber List."

The foreign minister said he was happy that a meeting has been arranged between Dr Faisal Sultan and British authorities on Monday in which he would suggest ways in how "both sides can be comfortable and overcome this challenge".

"On the whole, it was a frank and candid discussion. Thank you for coming," concluded the foreign minister.

Speaking after the foreign minister had concluded his opening statement, Raab said that the UK valued its historic relations with Pakistan, adding that he had a positive and constructive discussion with FM Qureshi.

"We want to further strengthen our ties with Pakistan," he said.

He thanked Pakistan for safely evacuating British citizens from Afghanistan, adding that the UK will continue to provide aid to Afghanistan on humanitarian grounds.

"We will continue to help Afghanistan's neighbouring countries, including Pakistan," he vowed. "We want to see a prosperous Afghanistan."

Hoping the Taliban will bring stability and an end to violence in Afghanistan, the UK foreign secretary said it was premature to talk about recognising the Taliban at the moment.

Speaking about Pakistan's inclusion in the Red List, Raab said Dr Faisal Sultan will hold a meeting with UK authorities to discuss the technical aspects of the case.

"We will be able to take the decision on excluding Pakistan's name from the Red List on technical grounds," he said.

==

Raab had reached Islamabad Thursday night for a two-day visit to Pakistan to discuss bilateral ties and the situation in Afghanistan after the Taliban swept the country.

The UK official is in Pakistan till September 3.

Foreign Minister Makhdoom Shah Mahmood Qureshi will hold official talks with Secretary of State Dominic Raab. The talks will cover the evolving situation in Afghanistan and bilateral matters.

Foreign Secretary Raab is also scheduled to have an interaction at the leadership level, the Foreign Office said in a statement. He will meet Prime Minister Imran Khan and Chief of the Army Staff Qamar Javed Bajwa.

Raab will be visiting the Torkham border with other British officials Friday afternoon, sources in the British government had said, adding that the purpose of the Torkham border visit is to get acquainted with the problems of the Afghan refugees.

Britain will work with Pakistan to help Afghan refugees, the sources said.

After completing his visit to Pakistan, the UK foreign secretary will reportedly brief British officials on the issue of refugees.

Pakistan and the United Kingdom have been closely engaged in the latest developments in Afghanistan.

Prime Minister Imran Khan had a comprehensive exchange of views with Prime Minister Boris Johnson telephonically on August 18.

FM Qureshi and Secretary of State Dominic Raab discussed the situation in Afghanistan twice on August 16 and 27.

The visit will reinforce the current momentum in high-level exchanges.

Raab is the third western foreign minister coming to Pakistan after the Kabul fall. Prior to his visit, Germany's Heiko Maas and Netherlands' Sigrid Kaag came to Islamabad.

Before travelling to Islamabad, Dominic Raab visited Doha to hold talks with Qatari leadership on the Afghan crisis.

While speaking during a joint press conference with Qatari Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani, Raab had said there is a need to engage with the Taliban on Afghanistan, but Britain has no immediate plans to recognise their government.

"Our commitment on the part of the United Kingdom to Afghanistan remains. We need to adjust to the new reality," Raab had told reporters.

'UK foreign secretary to hold talks on rescue of Britons left behind in Kabul'

Raab has been under intense fire for being away on vacation as Kabul fell after the collapse of the Ashraf Ghani government, and thousands of Britons were left stranded.

The UK government had said Raab will head to the region for talks about the rescue of those left behind in Kabul after the departure of the remaining foreign forces.

The foreign secretary had said he would be leaving for the region on Wednesday, after a combative grilling on the government’s handling of the crisis in Afghanistan by the Foreign Affairs Committee, but did not say where exactly, due to security reasons.

Meanwhile, a UK government source confirmed that Raab will be meeting civilian and military leadership during his visit to Pakistan and that the visit was being held on the request of the UK government.

The source had added that Raab will also likely meet a representative of the Afghanistan government.

On Tuesday, Raab had told the Foreign Affairs Committee: “We’re always very careful about signalling travel movements because of the security implications. But I can tell you I’m leaving after this committee to go to the region.”

Committee chair Tom Tugendhat had asked Raab: “Is this your first trip to Pakistan?”

“I’ve been to Pakistan before but not as a foreign secretary,” he had responded.

Raab had said the central assessment of the UK government was that Kabul was “unlikely” to fall in 2021, despite it ultimately being taken by the Taliban in the middle of August.

“The central assessment that we were operating to, and it was certainly backed up by the JIC (Joint Intelligence Committee) and the military, is that the most likely, the central proposition, was that given the troop withdrawal by the end of August, you’d see a steady deterioration from that point and it was unlikely Kabul would fall this year,” he had said.

Raab had pledged not to recognise the Taliban as the official government of Afghanistan, but said the UK and its allies will “test them and judge them”.

He had told the Foreign Affairs Committee: “We will not recognise the Taliban. I believe the US and most of the like-minded G7 countries have all said the same. What we will do is test them and judge them by how they respond.

“I think we will need, as I have said, a much broader caucus of countries involved in trying to resolve this. The United States is going to remain engaged and responsible for what happens next and of course, we want to work very closely with them.”

https://www.geo.tv/latest/368529-uk...tan-to-discuss-evolving-afghanistan-situation

 

[MenInG]

Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab has highlighted the importance of engaging with the Taliban as he acknowledged the need "to face up to the new reality in Afghanistan".

While not recognising the militant group as the government in Kabul, the cabinet minister pointed to the necessity of having "a direct line of communication" to discuss a range of pressing issues, including the safe passage of remaining British citizens and Afghan allies.

Speaking during a visit to Pakistan Mr Raab said it would not have been possible to evacuate some 15,000 people without some degree of cooperation with the Taliban, who seized power after the withdrawal of US forces, ending a 20-year military intervention.

He told a news conference: "We need to face up to the new reality in Afghanistan."

Pointing to the appointment of a new chargé d'affaires for Afghanistan based in Doha, Qatar, the foreign secretary said: "The approach that we are taking is we don't recognise the Taliban as a government... but we do see the importance of being able to engage and have a direct line of communication.

"The reason being is clearly there are a whole range of issues that need to be discussed, including first and foremost at the moment the question of safe passage of British nationals and the Afghans who worked for the UK government.

"We need to be able to convey direct messages on these things. We need to be able to have that dialogue."

He added: "The Taliban has made a series of undertakings. Some of them are positive at the level of words but we need to test them and see that they translate into deeds. We cannot do that unless we have at least some channel of dialogue.

Mr Raab told a news conference that the Taliban needed to create a "safe and secure environment" to allow aid to reach people in Afghanistan.

He said: "No-one wants to see the economic and social fabric of Afghanistan collapse, I can't see how that would be in the interest of the Taliban let alone ordinary Afghans, we certainly don't want to see that happen

"We would be willing not to fund aid via the Taliban, but through the humanitarian organisations that operate inside Afghanistan - for that to happen there needs to be a safe and secure environment, so that's an early test for the Taliban.

"But we're willing to make sure we do our bit, along with the national community to fund the humanitarian agencies, the lifeline for ordinary Afghans, but there needs to be a safe environment for that.

"We'll also support those regional partners, particularly like Pakistan who I can imagine is very concerned about the risk of numbers coming across the border, we want to make sure we can support those partners in the region deal with that.

"That's the holistic approach, the strategic approach we are taking."

Mr Raab, who has faced criticism over his handling of the Afghanistan crisis, also insisted there was "common widespread surprise", even among the Taliban, at the speed in which they had taken over Afghanistan.

He said: "The takeover I think it's fair to say was faster than anyone anticipated, not just the United Kingdom or NATO allies, but I was talking with our friends here.

"And I suspect the Taliban and ordinary Afghans were taken by surprise.

"I think there was a common widespread surprise at the speed with which the consolidation of power happened."

Mr Raab's comments came as the Commons Foreign Affairs Committee launched an inquiry into the chaotic retreat from Afghanistan.

Committee chairman Tom Tugendhat said: "The fall of Kabul is a catastrophe for the Afghan people and for the reputation of those nations that were committed to its success.

"Our hasty withdrawal leaves a country in an acute humanitarian and human rights crisis.

"The Afghan people, who we worked alongside for many years, have been left at the mercy of the Taliban, a vicious fundamentalist group."

He said that "big questions remain" and the inquiry aimed to provide "some much-needed clarity".

"Lessons need to be learnt and the decisions the UK makes in the coming months will be crucial," he added.

SKY

 

[MenInG]

Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi said on Friday that Pakistan had to coexist with Afghanistan hence, its approach towards Taliban will have to "realistic".

Responding to a question - during a press conference held alongside British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab - whether Pakistan's ties with Taliban will be based on certain conditions, Qureshi said that Pakistan and Afghanistan were in partnership for peace.

He said Pakistan had been saying that it had no favourites in Afghanistan, adding that it had certain compulsions while dealing with the country.

“A bulk of Afghanistan’s trade goes through Pakistan and closure of the border would result in another humanitarian crisis,” the FM said. He said there were dozens of border crossings that catered to thousands of Afghans entering Pakistan.

“Pakistan wanted to help the people of Afghanistan who have suffered for decades,” he said, adding that after so long there was a real opportunity for peace in Afghanistan. “We are waiting to see what happens in the next few days with eyes and ears open,” he added.

He added that things in Afghanistan were evolving and the entire world was hoping they would evolve in the right direction.

'Mindful of Afghanistan's neighbours' situation'

The British foreign secretary said the country evacuated about 15,000 people from Kabul to the UK, adding that it was an unprecedented action for the country in modern times.

“As for the UK, we are mindful of the situation of Afghanistan’s neighbours. We have increased our aid budget for Afghanistan to £286 million. We would also be supporting countries who face great demands for those who may be displaced in the weeks ahead,” the British envoy said.

“We also discussed allowing people safely and securely to cross borders if it is in the third country to get back to the UK… of course, that is the way of easing the burden on Afghanistan’ neighbours,” Raab added.

The British foreign secretary added that the country was sending upto £30 million of lifesaving support to Afghanistan’s neighbours, including Pakistan. “This is the money to provide shelter, household necessities and sanitation for those who come across the border. We recognise the problem and we want to be part of the solution.”

The two sides discussed the assurances given by the Taliban that Afghanistan will not be used by terrorist groups as a safe haven, said the British foreign secretary. He added that, “We are building an international coalition around these core elements, such as safe passage.”

The regional partners will be key in moving forward, and Pakistan’s support will be vital in this, he said, adding that it would help exercise moderate influence on the Taliban.

Pakistan on 'red list'

The two FMs also held discussions on Pakistan’s inclusion in the UK’s red list, according to Qureshi. He said that a technical meeting will be held on Monday (September 6) to discuss the measures taken by Pakistan to get off the travel ‘red list’.

Dr Faisal Sultan will represent Pakistan in the meeting that will discuss measures to be taken by Pakistan to get into the amber list.

In a comment on the list, Raab said that he commended the efforts of the Pakistani government to curb the pandemic. He said the government based its decision on technical and scientific evidence that could be "contested".

"We want to find a way through, no one wants Pakistan off the red list more than I do. We take these decisions at a technical level, I think the smart thing for us is to work together to enable that to happen soon," Raab added.

 

[MenInG]

For some Western powers hoping to influence the new Taliban government, there are hopes that Pakistan could play a role as a mediator.

The country has a unique relationship with Afghanistan. They share a 2,570km (1,600 mile) border. They are significant trading partners. There are numerous cultural, ethnic and religious connections. The former Afghan leader Hamid Karzai once described the two countries as "inseparable brothers".

But for some capitals queuing up to revive their relationship with Islamabad, there are mixed feelings.

Pakistan has not been seen by all as a firm ally in the battle against jihadist terrorism. It has long been accused by many in the United States and elsewhere of providing support for the Taliban, something it denies.

Yet diplomats in the West want to persuade the Taliban to allow their nationals to leave Afghanistan, to let humanitarian aid in and to govern moderately. And that means they need to talk to countries like Pakistan and others in the region.

What is Pakistan's relationship with Afghanistan and the Taliban?
Critics of Pakistan have accused it of hedging its bets over Afghanistan and the Taliban.

After the 9/11 attacks that were planned in Afghanistan, Pakistan positioned itself as an ally of the US in the so-called "war on terror".

But at the same time, parts of the country's military and intelligence establishment maintained links with Islamist groups in Afghanistan like the Taliban. Those links, so it is claimed, at times turned into significant material and logistical support.

The belief among strategists was that Pakistan wanted a stake in Afghanistan, to ensure it did not end up with a government that was pro-India. The extent and duration of Pakistan's support for the Taliban is disputed.

But when the Taliban were last in power 20 years ago, Pakistan was one of the few countries to formally recognise its government. And when the Taliban seized Kabul last month, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan declared the group were "breaking the chains of slavery".

What is Pakistan worried about?

Pakistan's historic support for the Taliban does not, however, mean it is entirely relaxed about the group's takeover in Kabul. Pakistanis have suffered hugely over the years at the hands of Islamist terror groups launching attacks over the border from Afghanistan.

Pakistan has a huge interest in ensuring the new government in Kabul cracks down on groups like Al Qaeda and the local Islamic State offshoot - ISIS-K. That means Pakistan has an interest in the Taliban acting firmly and not allowing Afghanistan to descend into an ungoverned space.

The other great concern of Pakistan is a refugee crisis. The country already has about three million Afghan refugees from previous wars and, with its ravaged economy, it cannot afford to support any more.

Pakistan's High Commissioner to the UK, Moazzam Ahmad Khan, told the BBC Today programme: "We don't really have the capacity to take more refugees in and that's why we're suggesting - and requesting - that let's sit down together and work on the possibility of avoiding that eventuality."

What does this mean for relations with West?
Pakistan's relations with the West are not great.

Perhaps the poorest are with the United States. Joe Biden has refused even to call Prime Minister Khan since he became president.

Lt Gen HR McMaster, the former US National Security Adviser, told a Policy Exchange seminar this week that Pakistan should be treated as a "pariah state" if it did not stop its support for jihadi groups.

"We have to stop pretending that Pakistan is a partner," he said. "Pakistan has been acting as an enemy nation against us by organising, training and equipping these forces and by continuing to use jihadist terrorist organisations as an arm of their foreign policy."

But that American view has not stopped other Western powers knocking on Pakistan's door. In recent days, foreign ministers from Britain and Germany have visited Islamabad. Italy's will go soon.

Diplomats believe - or at least hope - that Pakistan still holds some sway over the Taliban. They also fear that shunning Pakistan risks encouraging the country even further into the warm embrace of China.

The question of course is whether Pakistan really can influence the Taliban.

Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, widely tipped to be the leader of the new government, has in the past spent time in Pakistani detention. How warm he remains towards his former gaolers remains to be seen.

BBC

 

[MenInG]

Top US diplomat Antony Blinken has defended the chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan as he began his testimony before members of Congress.

The Secretary of State is facing criticism over the exit, especially over the Americans and allies left behind.

Republicans characterised it as a humiliating loss to the Taliban, while Democrats have shifted focus onto pull-out negotiations that had been set by the Trump administration.

He is the first official to go before Congress since the exit.

"We inherited a deadline, not a plan," said Mr Blinken, defending the withdrawal.

The Biden administration has faced widespread criticism - at home and among allies - over the abrupt manner of the US withdrawal, which led to the unexpected collapse of the Afghan security forces that US troops had trained and funded for years.

Taliban militants reclaimed control of the country at a rapid pace, quickly surrounding the capital, Kabul, on 15 August.

The fall of the capital prompted thousands to converge on Kabul airport in a desperate attempt to leave.

Monday's hearing is expected to be a contentious one, as several lawmakers have questioned the timeline of the withdrawal that saw US forces leave before civilians.

Over the course of a nearly 20 year war, more than 6,000 Americans and 100,000 local Afghans were killed, at an estimated cost of more than $2tn (£1.4tn).

In his opening remarks, Mr Blinken echoed President Biden's defence of the actions taken: "If 20 years and hundreds of billions of dollars in support, equipment, and training did not suffice, why would another year, or five, or ten, make a difference?"

He called the airlift operation to evacuate Americans, allied foreign nationals and local Afghans who worked for them "an extraordinary effort".

Questions remain over exactly how many Americans remain in Afghanistan and whether the US government will recognise the Taliban's interim leadership.

"If they want to seek any legitimacy, or any support, it starts with freedom of travel," Mr Blinken said.

But Michael McCaul, the top Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, slammed the pull-out as "an unconditional surrender to the Taliban" adding it would not have happened if the president listened to military and intelligence officials.

"The American people do not like to lose. Especially to the terrorists," he said.

Secretary Blinken will face a second round of questioning from lawmakers when he goes before the Senate on Tuesday.

 

[Lego20]

China will benefit the most in terms of risk/reward.

- The clear winners here are Pakistan - to be able to take on the biggest super power there is and make them retreat with humiliation while charging them rent and ransome is no mean feat. This is a high point for ISI/Pakistan military.
- China will walk in to exploit the loot - rare earth materials, transport channels (BRI), debt-diplomacy etc.
- Pakistan will have some manageable blow back in the short-mid term.
- India will see some reorganization of terrorists inflow which they will need to tackle.
- Pakistan junta: This is an accomplishment they can celebrate as a victory.
- Afghanistan people - who cares. They will wonder if God is even real to let all this happen to them.

 

[MenInG]

The United States will be looking at its relationship with Pakistan in the coming weeks, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Monday, to formulate what role Washington would want it to play in the future of Afghanistan.

In the first public hearing in Congress about Afghanistan since last month's collapse of the US-backed Afghan government, Blinken told the House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee that Pakistan has a "multiplicity of interests some that are in conflict with ours."

"It is one that is involved hedging its bets constantly about the future of Afghanistan, it's one that's involved harbouring members of the Taliban ... It is one that's also involved in different points cooperation with us on counterterrorism," Blinken said.

Asked by lawmakers if it is time for Washington to reassess its relationship with Pakistan, Blinken said the administration would soon be doing that.

"This is one of the things we're going to be looking at in the days, and weeks ahead - the role that Pakistan has played over the last 20 years but also the role we would want to see it play in the coming years and what it will take for it to do that," he said.

Blinken also called on Pakistan to deny legitimacy to the Taliban unless they meet international demands.

"What we have to look at is an insistence that every country, to include Pakistan, make good on the expectations that the international community has of what is required of a Taliban-led government if it's to receive any legitimacy of any kind or any support," Blinken told the House Foreign Affairs Committee.

He said the priorities included ensuring the Taliban let out people who want to leave Afghanistan and respect the rights of women, girls and minorities, as well as adhere to promises that the country not again become "a haven for outward-directed terror."

"So Pakistan needs to line up with a broad majority of the international community in working toward those ends and in upholding those expectations," Blinken said.

Blinken said Pakistan's policies have been "on many occasions detrimental to our interests, on other occasions in support of those interests."

'Prepared for worst-case scenarios'

During the hearing, Blinken insisted the Biden administration had prepared for worst-case scenarios in Afghanistan, as irate lawmakers accused the White House of presiding over a historic disaster.

The famously even-tempered top US diplomat stayed cool as he faced the toughest grilling of his career at the first congressional hearing on President Joe Biden's end to the 20-year war, which brought a swift victory by the Taliban.

As rival Republicans raised their voices, waved pictures of slain soldiers and occasionally demanded he resigns, Blinken repeatedly noted that former president Donald Trump had set the withdrawal from Afghanistan.

"We inherited a deadline; we did not inherit a plan," Blinken told the House Foreign Affairs Committee.

After Trump's February 2020 deal with the Taliban and drawdown of US troops, the movement was in the "strongest military position it had been since 9/11," the attacks 20 years ago that prompted America's longest war, Blinken said.

Blinken said the Biden administration was "intensely focused" on the safety of Americans and had been "constantly assessing" how long the Western-backed government could survive.

"Even the most pessimistic assessments did not predict that government forces in Kabul would collapse while US forces remained," Blinken said.

"The evacuation itself was an extraordinary effort -- under the most difficult conditions imaginable -- by our diplomats, by our military, by our intelligence professionals."

Blinken, however, suggested that the Taliban violated the accord through their "relentless march," even as the Trump administration pressed the former Afghan government to free battle-hardened fighters.

The United States and its allies ultimately evacuated 124,000 people out of Afghanistan, one of the largest airlifts in history.