Cricket is a dying game globally - it was always a very limited game among British Colonies (now former) and never had a global footprint. The size of south Asian population might make it second or third most populated game, and ICC tends to boast that cricket is played by 100+ countries, but in reality only 10-12 countries play it seriously and in half of those countries, it’s not even among top 3 sports. In countries like Australia, NZ, England, SAF cricket is still strong on field but reality is, it’s popularity compared to soccer, rugby or Aussie rule is minuscule. In that regard, I am not sure ODI cricket World Cup will last for another 30 years, but if it does sustain for another 10-12 rounds, PAK definitely has a better chance to win at least another one than not.
Having said that, I can write lots of positives for prospects of 2023, but honestly, I don’t think 2023 will be the year to happen it. In current format, it’s probably tougher to make the SF than winning it, because of the parity level middle teams have reached. Even last year, Poms were one game away from missing the SF cut despite being favourites and host!!!! I think, the challenge for this format is that, middle 5-6 teams can beat each other on their day and any team can spoil others party by one odd win, not necessarily themselves making the cut. That wasn’t the case in group system, where a QF spot was almost given for top 8 teams (still IND, PAK & ENG missed in 2007 & 2015), then it’s about 2-3 great days.
I don’t think, bringing past results of PCT in PAK has anything in this equation- I for one wrote many times that, old PAK was most dominant in India, and Australia, not in UAE, because those team(s) were different - composition was different, mindset as well, but most importantly- skill set was different. People like Saeed Anwar could have been twice the player had he played half of his career games on those beautiful Indian strips, just for one example, not to mention the wicket taking bowling penetration even on absolute belters.
For 2023 WC, first major hole that PAK has to plug is that in India, team will need 20 overs of wicket taking spin, which is desperately missing in current squad. People tend to draw similarity with 2011, but forget that in 2011, PAK had the best spin attack in world - a genius in old Ajmal, and both Hafeez with old action & Afridi of 2011 will walk into most current teams simply as bowlers. So, first priority - couple of finger spinners is must, and if available a better leggi than Shadab, or other way Shadab has to bring his leggi to at least Chahal or Tahir level.
Next is batting - at present, team is roaming around just one batsman; rest are just floating around inflated stats. When the game has gone to 300+ per level, someone batting in top 3 will enjoy some statistical glory. This is something I wrote in response to “current top 3 is historically best ever for PAK “ thread - unfortunately, that thread didn’t age well, to be honest. PAK’s biggest loss is the form of Fakhar - this guy could have taken bowlers to cleaners on Indian pitches and out-field. Next is Haris - a quality middle order who could loft spinners effortlessly in middle overs without much risk and could manoeuvre balls around five inner fielders for singles almost at will. I don’t see any of them making 2023 (or other way, no point making the squad like a skeleton of their prime), and unless these two are adequately replaced - absolutely no chance in batting. Babar can’t play both roles of an anchor & enforcer - no one can; I should mention here that even Sir Viv had Grineedge/Haynes in front of him & Lloyd/Gomez/Doujon behind.
Second issue with batting, there is no one for No. 5-7, which is probably more critical than having a blaster at top. When the game was around 250 ranged, the No. 5-6-7 was like an anchor to current context - a guy name Mike Bevan with his 70+ SR was almost superman in 1990s. But now, someone batting there has to take it to 100 level, and without Afridi like average. That can only happen with players very good at shot productivity (less dots in last 20 overs) and backed by blasting power - Rizwan/Sarfraz/Ifthekhar ... are far, far from that. May be, they should look to develop Khushdil for that role once MoHa & Malik generously pardons PCT from their curse. I don’t think Umar Akmal ever will play for PAK, but he was perfect fit for this spot, a back-up WK as well.
On a positive note, I think the pace attack is potential - won’t say ready yet as 3 years for PAK players is too long, but Shaheen, Amir (may be, he is still officially 27 to this day), needs one right arm partner - may be Naseem (don’t see, he is not an ODI bowler), Hasnain or Hasan can be enough. Fielding can’t be worse and it was never a strength, therefore don’t think there is much to gain or lose here. I actually watched again the 1992 Final, ball by ball few days back - just wondering, what that team could have done with current level of fielding; or other way, what this team will do with that level of fielding!!!!
.............,
There will be at least 7-8 teams with a potential to make the SF, after that it’s about two games; therefore I don’t think I need to tell that PAK indeed has a chance. BUT, net, net this is what I see as the squad that will be required to confirm a SF spot -
1. Opener (Sharjeel??)
2. *Babar
3. No. 3 (Haider??), could have been Maqsood as well!!!
4. No. 4 (Fit enough Haris?)
5. No. 5 (+Rizwan/Sarfraz?)
6. Khusdil/Umar, or may be Imad as batsman!!!
7. Shadab (Must improve bowling)
8. A bowling all-rounder (may be Sajid Khan or Hasan Ali, depending on condition)
9. A genuine SLAO spinner (Gohar, Umer)
10. Mo Amir - a focused one
11. Shaheen
———————
Naseem, Hasnain, Imam .....
There are too many holes to plug to be honest. And, this list actually tells what monumental damage these two shameless (pardon me) guys MoHa & Malik has done to PAK cricket - kept on holding top two middle order spots for a decade (I take MoHa merited his openers slot till 2013 CT may be) for their 35/75 stats in an era when Mahmudullah holds similar stats (& even he is dropped from BD ODI squad when we are missing couple of starters!!!) and blocked every potential middle order to flourish. Umar, Maqsood, Amin, Haris’s .... time is over, being pawn to accommodate the royalty - and that middle order hole will cost PAK something in 2023, I am afraid.
PAK will play in the WC and play in India as well, if it happens to be hosted by India - I don't think it's an issue of "allowing" them, rather accommodating them. 
