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Would Pakistan have chased down the 402-run target if rain didn’t stop play in the match against New Zealand?

Would Pakistan have chased down the 402-run target if rain had not intervened?

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Suleiman

Suleiman

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What do you guys think?

IMO Fakhar was marching to his first double ton and NZ got lucky to escape with their pride thanks to DLS method.

Otherwise Pakistan would’ve gunned this 400 down and gotten a massive momentum boost while at the same time demoralizing New Zealand, and making them ripe for SL to harvest.

Would’ve liked that self confidence boost for our team. They would feel that if they can chase down 400 they can chase down anything.

Besides, Babar needed more time in the middle to regain his fire.
 
Issue wasnt the 400, it was the dls par. Because after every few minutes, Pakistan needed to be ahead on dls par with wickets in hand.
So going for DLS par requires a different strategy and going for 400 is different.

Like if going for 400 you can send ifti up for gamble, but for dls par, his wicket could had damage things. Had babar gone out, the score would had fallen quite alot.
 
I think yes, because NZ were to bowl 30 overs of spin on a wicket that didn't assist much. At the first rain break Pakistan was around 160 in 21.3 overs which menat even if Fakhar got out at that point they just needed 240 from 171 balls which at Chinnaswamy is possible with wickets in hand.
 
id say it was 40/60 that pak would have pulled it off, fakhars knock hid how poorly babar played in the circumstances, had fakhar had gotten out pak would have lost 3 or 4 overs before the next man in would have gotten to hitting cos im pretty sure babar would not have.

but fakhar didnt really look like getting out and with spinners having to bowl at least 10 more overs a double hundred was defo on the cards.
 
If they could chase 340+ against SL without Fakhar, they would have chased 400 with Fakhar against NZ.

Moreover Pakistan already had 200 on board after 25 overs. Let’s say they were 240 after 30 overs with still 9 wickets in hand.

Then you needed 160 from 20 overs. That would have been a straight forward chase . In T20s even bowlers can smack a few sixes.
 
All we can say is they were on track to. The difficulty with such massive scores is you’re always a couple wickets away from it becoming tremendously more difficult. But, post rain break, Babar was also striking at 150 SR and Fakhar was still going hard so who knows.
 
No chance. As soon as Fakhar would have got out they would have crumbled.
 
What I have experimented with lots of randomly picked games that teams that are ahead after 20 overs at DWL par, eventually won over 80% games - the deeper you go, that percentage increases…. Like almost 98% times teams leading at 40 over mark eventually won the game. (I back fitted the data - for already finished games, tracked back to see who was ahead after 20, 25, 30…. Overs).

DWL is very accurate actually- among several prediction models I found DWL most reliable. Today, PAK was ahead always from like 5th over.

However, statistics always come with a pinch of salt - not everyday you chase 400+ in a WC elimination game & that percentage is diluted with one sided games - in this WC, almost all the games could had been correctly predicted at 75 overs mark using any method & if take selective samples, then the result will be biased.

In match thread, I actually wrote before start of PAK chase that if PAK is to win, FZ has to hit a 170, if not a double. That stands true - NZ was one wicket away from a win…. But that wicket was still in middle till the game ended.
 
I personally think they would have.

200-1 after 25 overs, plus they still had to bowl 5 overs of Daryl Mitchell.

Add 40 runs from his 5 and Sodhi’s 6 remaining overs and you’re looking at a total of 80 runs minimum even if we had lost a wicket.

That would’ve taken us to 280-2 after 36 overs, with 120 to win off …yeah never mind lol
 
As said above --- They could have or not. But just a wicket or couple wickets and nrr is close to 9+. But NZ deserved to lose and Pak deserved to win. So thats all that matters. NZ were so defensive and conservative that they deserved to lose. Pak for the sheer audacity deserved to win no matter what happens next.
 
Question Is after fakhars wicket would babar rizwan and saud shakeel continue with the same momentum?
 
Probably not, because despite all their limitations Nz knew they were simply one wicket(Fakhar) away from bagging it. Babar never could pull it off & frankly he didn't even dare to attempt. He simply rode on Fakhar's shoulder all along & got a nice boost to his career average in the end. Rizwan, Saud, Agha none of them possess the ability. Iftekhar on paper yes, but it depends how much he is required to make. If it's quickfire 25/35 then sure he could get the job done. But if circumstances would have forced to him make at least a 50 with 130/140 sr I don't see the guy managing it. It was basically Fakhar or bust.
 
Could have but I'd 30/70 to Pak because NZ were just one wicket away. Remember we were going really well against Australia but as soon as Ifti got out, the game was over.
 
This was an extremely easy pitch to bat on where Pakistan had momentum on their side after scoring 200 in 25 overs with Fakhar playing a video game kind of innings. Pakistan was going to make history yesterday if it was not for the rain. Fakhar was on fire and was on a mission to prove that Pakistan made a huge mistake by not picking him in the previous odis.
 
Even if Fakhar made 200 this was not going to be chased down.

Babar spent over ten overs batting and couldn’t increase his strike rate.
 
Yes I think there's a good chance we would have.

Fakhar had done the hard part, he had broken the back of the chase, he'd given us all the momentum, he'd broken the spirits of kiwi bowlers by slapping them silly all round the park.

200/1 after 25.3 overs, if Fakhar had continued at that rate for a few more overs before getting out, that would have left us with ~160 from 20 overs. Pretty standard T20 chase for these guys on a road with small boundaries against a second-string, part-timer attack. Literally the textbook Babar-Riz scenario.

NZ were only 168/1 after 25 overs.
 
Suleiman said:
What do you guys think?

IMO Fakhar was marching to his first double ton and NZ got lucky to escape with their pride thanks to DLS method.

Otherwise Pakistan would’ve gunned this 400 down and gotten a massive momentum boost while at the same time demoralizing New Zealand, and making them ripe for SL to harvest.

Would’ve liked that self confidence boost for our team. They would feel that if they can chase down 400 they can chase down anything.

Besides, Babar needed more time in the middle to regain his fire.
Click to expand...

I would say Pakistan would have easily chased this down. There was nothing in the pitch for the bowlers and the kiwis have selected only two fast bowlers, who were taken apart and demolished together with the spinners. 200/1 in 25-hours meant there was no way the kiwis would have escaped in that Bangalore ground. Even the kiwi captain Williamson said as much.

Ps

Fakhr already has a double ton.
 
chinaman00 said:
I would say Pakistan would have easily chased this down. There was nothing in the pitch for the bowlers and the kiwis have selected only two fast bowlers, who were taken apart and demolished together with the spinners. 200/1 in 25-hours meant there was no way the kiwis would have escaped in that Bangalore ground. Even the kiwi captain Williamson said as much.

Ps

Fakhr already has a double ton.
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Yeah I meant to edit that part out, the time to edit ran out, the 190 or whatever Vs SA was still heavy on my mind lol.
 
Suleiman said:
Yeah I meant to edit that part out, the time to edit ran out, the 190 or whatever Vs SA was still heavy on my mind lol.
Click to expand...

He has a lot of iconic innings. The think with Fakhr is once he scores a 50, chances are he will go on to score a century and most likely hit a daddy 100. His conversion rate is quite astonishing. Big match player.
 
Concerned said:
Even if Fakhar made 200 this was not going to be chased down.

Babar spent over ten overs batting and couldn’t increase his strike rate.
Click to expand...

The kiwis are lucky Fakhr didn’t get to score a double ton. There’s no way they would have stopped him yesterday. Rising tides lifts all boats and fakhr’s inning was such that it took the kiwis out of the game and gave a major psychological boost to Pakistan. Whoever would have followed him would have most likely gone to impose their authority on the non-existent kiwi bowling attack.
 
Chasing 400 is never easy. We were single handedly dependent on Fakhar.

If it was up to Babar he would have shown his mental midgetry and statpadded another useless match losing 50 before holing out failing to accelerate
 
Depends on fakhar's wicket. If he had stayed they were going to win. If he were gone there will be a slight window.
 
When South Africa successfully chased 434 in 2006, they made sure that they reached 300 by the 28th over. Gibbs, Graeme Smith and ABD went after each and every delivery.

That is the approach every team should take when chasing such a huge score.
 
This pitch and ground were custom-tailored for Ifti, with its small boundaries and excellent wicket conditions. In the exhibition match, Ifti showcased his prowess by hitting a six consecutive sixes in a single over against Wahab Riaz. Another point to note that if Satner managed to deliver massive hits against Afridi and company with great ease, there's every reason to believe that Hasan Ali, Wasim Jr, and even Afridi himself could've replicate the same feat. The batting lineup goes deep.
 
Another 100 rub paterniship and we would have won it, else it could have gone to anyone, our wheels come off rather quickly
 
Azzurri said:
Highly unlikely
Click to expand...
Buffet said:
Unlikely.
Click to expand...
Rana said:
No chance
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In world cricket, Only the Pakistan cricket team has such toxic fans who would answer NO or Unlikely to this question

We were 200 in 25 overs with only 1 OUT
That's needing 200 more in the same 25 overs with 9 WICKETS REMAINING and 2 set batters at the crease

Do you guys even celebrate when we win? What will you do when we win the final at Ahmedabad InshAllah
 
The way Fakhar was going he could chase it down in 40 overs 😁
But yeah, we would never know.
 
saqib.rai said:
In world cricket, Only the Pakistan cricket team has such toxic fans who would answer NO or Unlikely to this question

We were 200 in 25 overs with only 1 OUT
That's needing 200 more in the same 25 overs with 9 WICKETS REMAINING and 2 set batters at the crease

Do you guys even celebrate when we win? What will you do when we win the final at Ahmedabad InshAllah
Click to expand...
@Buffet is South African bro. He was being realistic as a neutral fan.
 
saqib.rai said:
In world cricket, Only the Pakistan cricket team has such toxic fans who would answer NO or Unlikely to this question

We were 200 in 25 overs with only 1 OUT
That's needing 200 more in the same 25 overs with 9 WICKETS REMAINING and 2 set batters at the crease

Do you guys even celebrate when we win? What will you do when we win the final at Ahmedabad InshAllah
Click to expand...
How many times 400 has been chased? All it takes 2 wickets and whole thing just crumbles. Many times it has happened in history, not just with Pakistan but plenty of other teams when chasing a high scores. Unlikely does not mean that it was impossible, it simply means that I think chances of chasing 400 is not high unless Fakhar was batting for another 15 overs. Set batsman like Babar? He was struggling to get more than run a ball even when chasing 400.

Even with better batting line up, 400 is hard to chase because you can lose 2 wickets any time and asking rate will very quickly climb. Fakhar simply played a super knock to make it look easy otherwise batsman on the other end was struggling to hit much. NZ had poor bowling line up due to injuries' but 400 is still plenty of runs. Plenty of teams look like chasing big score half way and then fail to chase. Sure, it can be done, odds are not high.
 
If fakhar stayed till over 40 then yes.

Had fakhar departed for even over 30 to 35 then nope.

Babar and rizzu would bottle it 100%
 
Honestly, the tide was turning. NZ looked shocked near the end.

This was one of those games where I legitimately thought they would have chased down 400.
 
Can’t predict for sure but it would be 70/30 in Nzs favour.
Nz was just one wicket away, Fakhar Zaman is the only one who could have done this
 
Not sure what this thread is meant to achieve. It's all hypothetical now. Game is done and dusted. Pak won and got the 2 points for being aggressive.
NZ got a shellacking and that's it. Time to focus on the eng game and hope sl beats nz or it rains out. Man - for once want to see nz getting eliminated due to rain lol! They always get lucky with qualification. And then hopefully an Ind-pak sf at Kolkata! 🙂
 
They were going for it and till the rain interruption DLS wasn't even on their minds. Most likely we wouldn't have made it, knowing that a collapse is always a wicket away. Credit to the boys though, they are showing lots of confidence in chasing.
 
chinaman00 said:
The kiwis are lucky Fakhr didn’t get to score a double ton. There’s no way they would have stopped him yesterday. Rising tides lifts all boats and fakhr’s inning was such that it took the kiwis out of the game and gave a major psychological boost to Pakistan. Whoever would have followed him would have most likely gone to impose their authority on the non-existent kiwi bowling attack.
Click to expand...
If you were watching the game, you would have noticed that Boult was spraying it all over the place, on the legs angling down, outside off at short of good length, wide outside off and holding its line.

Credit to the opener for making the most and putting more pressure on the bowler and forcing more own goals. But consider this, what percentage of 400+ scores are chased down?
 
Fakhar even when is not exactly considered to be in form shows up very well against NZ. NZ must be sick of his sight. They looked petrified bowling to him.
 
No way the pak have chased 400+…. It was a tough task…. pak side witnessed several collapses in WC as well as in Asia cup… therefore they just got lucky as rain saved them
 
No.

We were a wicket away from the new bat coming in, wasting balls, becoming overwhelmed by a demanding and ever-increasing RRR, before getting out and transferring that pressure on to the new man.

A collapse would have happened with the rest of the team making insignificant contributions at a quick rate (i.e 6 off 2, boundary and out) to crumble from 200-1 to about 250 all out.

Yesterday's scenario was perfect for the total requied (402), the win, and the effect on NRR.

I could be wrong but 200 in 25 under DLS has more of a positive effect on our NRR than winning by scoring 402 in 50-ish overs.
 
I think it was possible chase. NZ bowling was especially weak this match and Pakistan had momentum and right player in flow.

These big chases derail with wickets but kudrat has a nizam.
 
I tend to agree with those who think we would have lost it

Problem is our batting has such a bad track record that one wicket goes down and the whole thing derails.
 
MenInG said:
I tend to agree with those who think we would have lost it

Problem is our batting has such a bad track record that one wicket goes down and the whole thing derails.
Click to expand...
That is applicable for most teams. Unless there is sudden reverse and Southee nips one or two It was going one way. Their bankable bowlers travelled big time. They were hoping for Fakhar to mistime one. Didn't do anything proactively.
 
jnaveen1980 said:
That is applicable for most teams. Unless there is sudden reverse and Southee nips one or two It was going one way. Their bankable bowlers travelled big time. They were hoping for Fakhar to mistime one. Didn't do anything proactively.
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30 overs of spin remaining makes it doable but 400 is a lot.
 
Any team other than Pakistani team, I would've said yes. But it is unpredictable Pakistan. So the easier the run chase would have, the more probability of a collapse.

Pakistan shines when it's cornered.

You need 30 out of 50 balls? PCT likely to lose..

You need to defend 121 run in 50 overs? Now we are talking!
 
Easely
About 240 for Fakhar and 150 for Babar.
They were robbed actually.
45 overs and the chase was over
 
IAJ said:
If they could chase 340+ against SL without Fakhar, they would have chased 400 with Fakhar against NZ.

Moreover Pakistan already had 200 on board after 25 overs. Let’s say they were 240 after 30 overs with still 9 wickets in hand.

Then you needed 160 from 20 overs. That would have been a straight forward chase . In T20s even bowlers can smack a few sixes.
Click to expand...
but without a 6 over t20 power play and plus agha and saud are not t20 players.
 
Chasing 400 is no joke. It’s very difficult to maintain that rate no matter the pitch or the bowling. We saw that in the Aus-NZ game when the chase was on. We saw that in the pak v Aus game when the chase was on.

Pakistan still needed Fakhar to bat as well as he did for those 25 overs over another 25 overs. NZ just needed him out.

We got lucky.
 
kron said:
30 overs of spin remaining makes it doable but 400 is a lot.
Click to expand...
I called before the match that this was a stupid team. Bangalore pitch despite being a great batting track always offers bounce. If you have someone who is willing to bend his back he can extract. If not wickets NZ could have contained the scoring rate that way instead of serving one plate biryani after another by bowling length balls.

But you should never lose hope. MSD pulled it early this year defending 226 on this ground. RCB was 141/2 in 12 overs with with Maxwell and Faf striking at 200 or thereabout. Faf and Maxwell both fell in succession. RCB limped their way to 218. MSD had Pathirana, Theekshana, and Ali at his disposal He strangled them by protecting the shorter side.
 
TheSultan said:
Chasing 400 is no joke. It’s very difficult to maintain that rate no matter the pitch or the bowling. We saw that in the Aus-NZ game when the chase was on. We saw that in the pak v Aus game when the chase was on.

Pakistan still needed Fakhar to bat as well as he did for those 25 overs over another 25 overs. NZ just needed him out.

We got lucky.
Click to expand...

True. Most memorable chase attempt on this ground was in 2014 in the decider match of the series. Look at the strike rate of Maxwell/Watson/Faulkner. Unbelievable hitting. It was deadlier than Fakhar. There were 3 Fakhar plus chasing 386. Yet they fell short.

www.espncricinfo.com

IND vs AUS Cricket Scorecard, 7th ODI at Bengaluru, November 02, 2013

Get cricket scorecard of 7th ODI, IND vs AUS, Australia tour of India 2013/14 at M Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bangalore dated November 02, 2013.
www.espncricinfo.com www.espncricinfo.com
 
jnaveen1980 said:
I called before the match that this was a stupid team. Bangalore pitch despite being a great batting track always offers bounce. If you have someone who is willing to bend his back he can extract. If not wickets NZ could have contained the scoring rate that way instead of serving one plate biryani after another by bowling length balls.

But you should never lose hope. MSD pulled it early this year defending 226 on this ground. RCB was 141/2 in 12 overs with with Maxwell and Faf striking at 200 or thereabout. Faf and Maxwell both fell in succession. RCB limped their way to 218. MSD had Pathirana, Theekshana, and Ali at his disposal He strangled them by protecting the shorter side.
Click to expand...
based on what you know about grounds. what are the chances of Lanka beating NZ?
 
daytrader said:
They were going for it and till the rain interruption DLS wasn't even on their minds. Most likely we wouldn't have made it, knowing that a collapse is always a wicket away. Credit to the boys though, they are showing lots of confidence in chasing.
Click to expand...
Dls was on fakhar's mind. Not babar.

Without fakhar everyone is toothless and spineless and don't play for the team.

Chacha plays for the team and tries his best but chacha is medicore and isn't on the same talent as fakhar, but besides fakhar and chacha and some bowlers, the rest of the team I hate.

Saud and Abdullah are too young and new so I don't have an opinion on them atm
 
I have another question

India vs pakistan

Pakistan were 155/2 at one point and only 20 overs left

Would pakistan post 200 in 20 overs with 8 wickets in hand with chacha ifti still to come?

On paper and our heads yes but everyone knows what happened in reality

There is no way fakhar would have batted 50 overs fakhar is a human like us and mistake would have happened somewhere

And momentum would have shifted towards new zealand and rest of the team would have crumbled under pressure or take it up till 320-350 I don't see anyone else play like fakhar type of innings

On the same small boundaries I didn't see asad shafiq or babar azam do much just standard innings it was all fakhar show

Even babar and management knew it was going to rain the reason they field first, they did the right thing by beating the DLS and that's the best they could do and luckily no wicket fell and we reached target

And we should be happy we did it no need to make it out we will chase 400+ vs every team in the world and we are the best team in the world now, just like we did with numbers 1 rankings
And the " Babar is the best batsmen in the world" quote only to be embarrassed later

Best is to take from this match and try to chase in a similar in all games and improve our chasing game
 
Major said:
based on what you know about grounds. what are the chances of Lanka beating NZ?
Click to expand...
NZ 75%. Ever since Kushal Mendis took over captaincy his form took an U turn. He is their X factor player. But they are unpredictable. Don't bet on this 55 all out team. Early this year they were rolled over by NZ for 76 runs and 159 runs. Boult didn't even play. I won't be surprised if it is a total blow out.
 
Remember that India vs Sri Lanka game in 2009. India posted 400 plus but Sri Lanka looked well on course to chase it down as Tillekratne Dilshan was batting like Fakhar. But Dilshan got out for 160 odd & the chase faltered & Sri Lanka lost by just 3 runs!

So in a way Pakistan got bit lucky to get away bcoz you can never be sure what wud happened if Fakhar got out. But again in this case full credit to Pakistan bcoz they did everything possible from their end !
 
jnaveen1980 said:
NZ 75%. Ever since Kushal Mendis took over captaincy his form took an U turn. He is their X factor player. But they are unpredictable. Don't bet on this 55 all out team. Early this year they were rolled over by NZ for 76 runs and 159 runs. Boult didn't even play. I won't be surprised if it is a total blow out.
Click to expand...
im so worried that i am even reading sumit bajaj and other astrolgers predictions :)). I need some hope from somewhere.

I think Pakistan are done
 
NishanKonar said:
Remember that India vs Sri Lanka game in 2009. India posted 400 plus but Sri Lanka looked well on course to chase it down as Tillekratne Dilshan was batting like Fakhar. But Dilshan got out for 160 odd & the chase faltered & Sri Lanka lost by just 3 runs!

So in a way Pakistan got bit lucky to get away bcoz you can never be sure what wud happened if Fakhar got out. But again in this case full credit to Pakistan bcoz they did everything possible from their end !
Click to expand...
Sensational death bowling by Zaheer pulled things back for India.
 
jnaveen1980 said:
NZ 75%. Ever since Kushal Mendis took over captaincy his form took an U turn. He is their X factor player. But they are unpredictable. Don't bet on this 55 all out team. Early this year they were rolled over by NZ for 76 runs and 159 runs. Boult didn't even play. I won't be surprised if it is a total blow out.
Click to expand...
New Zealand has no bowlers left at all. Every team is hammering them badly. Boult & Southee are trundler level on these flat pitches

So Sri Lanka might sneak a win here
 
Major said:
im so worried that i am even reading sumit bajaj and other astrolgers predictions :)). I need some hope from somewhere.

I think Pakistan are done
Click to expand...
Never trust Srilankans. They are garbage team. There is a reason why they played qualifier to get to world cup. Yes they can totally shock out of the blue. But more often than not they are mediocre.
 
Major said:
im so worried that i am even reading sumit bajaj and other astrolgers predictions :)). I need some hope from somewhere.

I think Pakistan are done
Click to expand...
come on bro, you’re Muslim right? Astronomy, palm readers etc are shirk.

This is not from me, this is how it is in the Quran and Hadith.

Make dua if you really want us to go to semis and lift the trophy, not these grifters.

Allah gave us victory after we got smashed for 400, no one predicted that
 
captain.hansolo said:
If you were watching the game, you would have noticed that Boult was spraying it all over the place, on the legs angling down, outside off at short of good length, wide outside off and holding its line.

Credit to the opener for making the most and putting more pressure on the bowler and forcing more own goals. But consider this, what percentage of 400+ scores are chased down?
Click to expand...
It’s not about percentages that are chased down. It’s about who was well positioned to win. Pakistan was comfortably placed at 200/1 with a batsman known for daddy hundreds at the crease. If Babar & Fakhar stayed for 5-7 more overs, it would have left less than 130ish to be chased down by 9 remaining batsmen. Easily doable.
 
jnaveen1980 said:
Never trust Srilankans. They are garbage team. There is a reason why they played qualifier to get to world cup. Yes they can totally shock out of the blue. But more often than not they are mediocre.
Click to expand...
Never understood why Sri Lankans are so poor in India. When pitch & conditions here are very similar to Colombo & Dambulla !
 
For Pakistan to make 400 Fakhar would need to have made atleast 240 himself in 25 overs. Even then the rest of the batters would likely have found a way to mess up a 6rpo target.

We know that Babar Rizwan at best are 100-110 SR guys. Ifti is a slogger who'd get 30(20) on his best day. Game would have ended very quickly once Fakhar got out
 
jnaveen1980 said:
True. Most memorable chase attempt on this ground was in 2014 in the decider match of the series. Look at the strike rate of Maxwell/Watson/Faulkner. Unbelievable hitting. It was deadlier than Fakhar. There were 3 Fakhar plus chasing 386. Yet they fell short.

www.espncricinfo.com

IND vs AUS Cricket Scorecard, 7th ODI at Bengaluru, November 02, 2013

Get cricket scorecard of 7th ODI, IND vs AUS, Australia tour of India 2013/14 at M Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bangalore dated November 02, 2013.
www.espncricinfo.com www.espncricinfo.com
Click to expand...

Australia was 74/4 in the 17th over. Of course, they would have lost. Wrong yardstick to use. Pakistan was 200/1 in the 25th over. I don’t care what anybody says, Pakistan needed 200 from 25 over. That’s doable any day on that pitch and especially against the weak NZ bowling lineup with only 2 pacers who by the 25th over only 9 overs of pace remained. Give me a break!

Even the NZ captain thought there was no way his team was going to win.
 
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