6-0 for the strongest 4 teams batting first, will toss decide who wins the 2019 World Cup?

[Napa]

The 4 strongest teams in the tournament Australia, India, England and Pakistan have played a total of 6 games against each other in the group phase. I consider Pakistan to be a stronger team than NZ.

All games among these 4 strongest teams have been won by the team batting first. Pakistanis should not feel too bad losing to Australia and India, the result may have been different if they batted first. At least the record all games considered suggests so.

Statistically, a 6-0 record is quite compelling. Unless the captain winning the toss has another brain fade like Morgan (Pakistan-England) or Sarfaraz (India-Pakistan), it appears that the simple formula for winning is "win toss, bat first".

Except for NZ (the weakest of the semifinalists) it appears that the semifinal and final games between Australia, India and England will be decided by the toss. A pity really.

The really should hold an auction for the toss. The side bidding more runs to be given to the opponents gets to choose whether to bat or bowl first. Need to take luck out of the equation.

 

[Suleiman]

Anyone know why this is the case? Is it purely due to scoreboard pressure or are these pitches slowing down?

 

[aloo paratha]

Anyone know why this is the case? Is it purely due to scoreboard pressure or are these pitches slowing down?

Flat pitches + scoreboard pressure. 300+ are totals you don't even see chased in bilaterals that often, the pressure of the world cup just adds to it. Even though the pitch is the same for both teams, a par score of 250 is much easier to chase because you don't feel as much pressure. 300+ pitches are a cancer for ODI cricket.

 

[rhony]

The pitches have slowed down in the 2nd innings. Add to that the pressure in world cups

 

[jnaveen1980]

NZ has won 4 matches while fielding first albeit against weaker sides. Bangladesh lost 4 matches while fielding first albeit against stronger sides. India won 1 lost 1. Australia won 1 lost 1.

Australia won 6 out of 6 batting first
England won 5 out of 5 batting first
India won 5 out of 5 batting first

Pakistan won 3 out of 4 batting first
Srilanka won 3 out of 5 batting first
Bangladesh won 2 out of 3 batting first


Only two teams have less than 1 W/L ratio while batting first is west indies and afghanistan

Toss will decide the semi final.

 

[TheNightWatchman]

So this was an issue I noticed from the start of the tournament. It's really now a game of tosses now more than who is the better side. Because all these teams are capable of beating each other provided who bats first. Unless one team spectacularly collapses in the first innings we pretty much know the team batting first is going to win putting on a 300+ score.

 

[Napa]

So this was an issue I noticed from the start of the tournament. It's really now a game of tosses now more than who is the better side. Because all these teams are capable of beating each other provided who bats first. Unless one team spectacularly collapses in the first innings we pretty much know the team batting first is going to win putting on a 300+ score.

Why, Sarfaraz, why? Why bowl first after winning the toss when the whole world (including your PM) is telling you to bat first. A great chance for Pakistan to end the streak thrown away!

 

[Itachi]

So this was an issue I noticed from the start of the tournament. It's really now a game of tosses now more than who is the better side. Because all these teams are capable of beating each other provided who bats first. Unless one team spectacularly collapses in the first innings we pretty much know the team batting first is going to win putting on a 300+ score.

If that wasn't the case, Pakistan probably would have had in finals by now.

 

[TheNightWatchman]

If that wasn't the case, Pakistan probably would have had in finals by now.

Leave it to Pakistan to be the only team to "spectacularly collapse" in a tournament where almost every team batting first is scoring 300+. But one bad match shouldn't have been the reason for their demise.

Meanwhile, as far as the top 4 is concerned. Aus and India seem like the only 2 teams who can actually win a match batting second. Aus more so because they have Starc and an inform Behrendorff who can limit the team batting first to a low score. India have the 2nd best bowling line up in the top 4 not sure if they are capable of collapsing England though even though Bumrah has been bowling really good. NZ have a weak batting line up and thus are more likely to suffer from a collapse if they bat first and chasing they are abysmal so I would be extremely surprised if they reach the final by beating Aus.
Onto Eng vs IND. If India bat first and Rohit doesn't choke in the big games they have a pretty good chance. As far as England goes, if they bat first they are beating every side in the semis easy. I personally don't see them collapsing to Bumrah and co.
Summary: Australia is winning this worldcup unless England luck out and bat first in the semis and final both.

 

[Robert]

The first five WC finals were won by the team that batted first.

 

[BaankeJi]

I think teams will have to overcome this limitation to win the world cup.

 

[saeedhk]

Even an idiot would know this. Win toss bat first. Im a WC, why would anyone bowl first and chase? Even the best chasing sides India and Eng couldn’t chase. But our captain and management showed how brainless they are by choosing to chase against Aus and India. We deserve to go home simply due to our idiocy.

 

[saeedhk]

Why, Sarfaraz, why? Why bowl first after winning the toss when the whole world (including your PM) is telling you to bat first. A great chance for Pakistan to end the streak thrown away!

Has to be the most idiotic decision ever probably. Our management and team have zero cricketing sense. Didn’t they know that we are the worst chasing side? I fail to understand what made them bowl first. Did Sarfraz think they will bowl India out for 150? Sarfraz said it was a team decision to bowl first, which means our batters are cowards who start shivering when they see a drop of rain. Would’ve been a much more competitive match had Pak batted first. Even 250 would’ve been challenging for India in a chase.

 

[latecut]

Even an idiot would know this. Win toss bat first. Im a WC, why would anyone bowl first and chase? Even the best chasing sides India and Eng couldn’t chase. But our captain and management showed how brainless they are by choosing to chase against Aus and India. We deserve to go home simply due to our idiocy.

The fact that it had rained before the India vs Pakistan match prompted Sarfaraz to elect to field. Moreover, Pakistan had batted first against West Indies and see what happened. In those early days of the world cup, several matches were won by teams batting second. For instance, India had won against South Africa by batting second.

It is easy for people to criticise cricket captains with the benefit of hindsight.

 

[Napa]

The fact that it had rained before the India vs Pakistan match prompted Sarfaraz to elect to field. <b>Moreover, Pakistan had batted first against West Indies and see what happened.</b> In those early days of the world cup, several matches were won by teams batting second. For instance, India had won against South Africa by batting second.

It is easy for people to criticise cricket captains with the benefit of hindsight.

3 days after that debacle, Pakistan batted first and scored 348 en route to beating England.

2 years prior, Pakistan beat India in England batting first in a tournament final. In that CT tournament, they also lost to India in the group stage batting second.

There was enough data to suggest that batting first would give Pakistan a significant advantage.

 

[ak619]

Anyone know why this is the case? Is it purely due to scoreboard pressure or are these pitches slowing down?

Flat pitches + scoreboard pressure. 300+ are totals you don't even see chased in bilaterals that often, the pressure of the world cup just adds to it. Even though the pitch is the same for both teams, a par score of 250 is much easier to chase because you don't feel as much pressure. 300+ pitches are a cancer for ODI cricket.

It's only and only down to the pressure of chasing in WCs. Nothing else.

I've shared stats with [MENTION=149691]Captain caveman[/MENTION] which shows that the win ratio for teams batting first and batting second in the last 2 years is 0.9

Which means teams actually do better when they are chasing nowadays.

The WC games have been skewed towards batting first because teams (especially weaker teams) will always struggle chasing under the WC pressure.

 

[saeedhk]

The fact that it had rained before the India vs Pakistan match prompted Sarfaraz to elect to field. Moreover, Pakistan had batted first against West Indies and see what happened. In those early days of the world cup, several matches were won by teams batting second. For instance, India had won against South Africa by batting second.

It is easy for people to criticise cricket captains with the benefit of hindsight.

Not really. Other teams choose to bat first despite having a good chasing record. Our team should be the last one to chase. We all know how bad we are at chasing. Also, we had won against England batting first. And against Australia, we chose to bowl first and see what happened. Sarfraz and Co should’ve learnt something from that defeat but no, they made the same mistake.

I have always said Pak should never choose to bowl first because we simply dont have mentally strong batters. Our think tank is a complete failure.

 

[saeedhk]

3 days after that debacle, Pakistan batted first and scored 348 en route to beating England.

2 years prior, Pakistan beat India in England batting first in a tournament final. In that CT tournament, they also lost to India in the group stage batting second.

There was enough data to suggest that batting first would give Pakistan a significant advantage.

Agreed. Can’t believe some people actually defend the decisions to bowl first against Aus and India.

 

[Sunzi]

Yeah its rubbish.

Never known the toss to be so important before. It's the match!

Win the toss and bat and there is a very high chance, as has been seen by most teams, that the match is more or less over within the first hour-hour and a half.