Brexit: Theresa May's deal is voted down in historic Commons defeat

[MenInG]

UK and EU officials have agreed the draft text of a Brexit agreement in a significant breakthrough for the talks.

A cabinet source told the BBC that the document has been agreed at a technical level by officials from both sides after intensive discussions this week.

A special cabinet meeting will be held at 14:00 GMT on Wednesday as Theresa May seeks ministers' backing.

The prime minister is currently meeting ministers for one-to-one talks as they are given sight of the draft agreement.

Health Secretary Matt Hancock, Transport Secretary Chris Grayling and Chief Whip Julian Smith are among those who have been seen entering Downing Street.

Scottish Secretary David Mundell said he had yet to see the detail but he was "encouraged" by the progress made.

But leading Brexiteers, such as Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg, have urged the cabinet to reject the draft agreement - which includes commitments over citizens' rights after Brexit, a proposed 21-month transition period after the UK's departure on 29 March 2019 and details of the so-called £39bn "divorce bill".

The future of the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland has been the last major outstanding issue to be settled amid disagreements over how to guarantee that there will not be physical checks reintroduced after Brexit.

Cabinet ministers were briefed on the state of the negotiations earlier on Tuesday, when they were told a "small number of outstanding issues" remained to be sorted.

No 10 said ministers were now being called to a special meeting to "consider the draft agreement the negotiating teams have reached in Brussels, and to decide on next steps".

Before they do so, they will be able to read relevant "documentation".

The text that's taken months of officials' blood, sweat and tears has been agreed, at least at a technical level.

Now a paper's being drafted to present to the Cabinet tomorrow ready for the government's hoped-for next step - political approval from Theresa May's team, even though many of them have deep reservations.

Remember in the last 24 hours some of them have been warning privately that what's on the table is just not acceptable, and will never get through Parliament. Some even believe the prime minister ought to walk away.

But the government machine is now cranking into action. With a text ready, their long-planned rollout can begin.

The BBC's chief political correspondent Vicki Young said some ministers had "deep concerns" about the shape of the likely agreement, which critics say could leave the UK trapped in a customs agreement with the EU.

She said they would have to decide whether they could support it, and if not, whether to resign from cabinet.

Leading Brexiteers have already condemned the draft agreement, Boris Johnson saying it would see the UK remain in the customs union and "large parts" of the single market.

He told the BBC it was "utterly unacceptable to anyone who believes in democracy". "Am I going to vote against it. The answer is yes," he added.

And Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said "given the shambolic nature of the negotiations, this is unlikely to be the good deal for the country".

'Failure to deliver'
Both the UK and EU want to schedule a special summit of European leaders at the end of November to sign off the reportedly 500 page withdrawal deal and the much shorter outline declaration of their future relationship.

Brussels has insisted it would only agree to put the wheels in motion for the summit if agreement can be reached on the issue of the Irish border.

Ambassadors from the remaining 27 EU states will meet in Brussels on Wednesday.

If a deal is agreed with the EU, Mrs May then needs to persuade her party - and the rest of Parliament - to support it in a key Commons vote.

Conservative Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg said if details of the text reported by Irish broadcaster RTE were true, the UK would become a "vassal state" with Northern Ireland "being ruled from Dublin".


Such an agreement "failed to deliver on Brexit" and the cabinet should reject it, he told the BBC.

"I think what we know of this deal is deeply unsatisfactory," he said. "There seems to be growing opposition to these very poor proposals."

Meanwhile, following pressure from all sides of the Commons, ministers have agreed to provide MPs with a legal assessment of the implications for the UK of the Irish backstop and other controversial aspects of any deal.

Cabinet Office minister David Lidington said Attorney General Geoffrey Cox would make a statement to MPs and take questions ahead of the final vote on any Brexit deal.

MPs, he said, would get to see "a full reasoned position statement laying out the government's both political and also legal position on the proposed withdrawal agreement".

The Democratic Unionists' Westminster leader Nigel Dodds said he was pleased Parliament had "asserted its will" as it was imperative that all parties to the deal were clear in what way and for how long it would "legally bind" the UK.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46188790

 

[KingKhanWC]

This whole process has been really confusing for the people of the UK. We dont know how much worse we will be and how life will change for us. Perhaps @Makhor can shed some clear light on this?

 

[Markhor]

Doubt if May will have the numbers to get this through Parliament. She not only has to convince the DUP, but a significant number of Conservative backbenchers who've already rejected this deal.

 

[Donal Cozzie]

Jesus this is so gratifying to watch. Gammon flaming in rage everywhere

 

[James]

Doubt if May will have the numbers to get this through Parliament. She not only has to convince the DUP, but a significant number of Conservative backbenchers who've already rejected this deal.

Depends if Labour back it or not.

 

[Markhor]

DUP will vote no. They argue they cannot support a deal that treats NI differently from the rest of UK.

But you ALREADY get treated differently ! Abortion laws anyone ?

Depends if Labour back it or not.

Will the number of Labour rebels be enough ?

 

[MenInG]

The UK is "significantly closer" to delivering on the result of the Brexit vote, Theresa May has told MPs.

She told the Commons a draft withdrawal agreement reached with the EU would give the UK control of borders, laws and money.

The PM is now in a crucial cabinet meeting, thought to be over-running by as much as two hours, where she is seeking her senior ministers' backing.

She is expected to make a statement afterwards.

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said the UK would be stuck in an "indefinite half-way house without any real say" over the rules.

Speaking at Prime Minister's Questions, he said Mrs May was putting a "false choice" before Parliament between her "botched deal and no deal".

Several Conservative MPs - as well as opposition parties - have lined up to criticise what is reported to be in the draft deal, particularly over ways to prevent a hard border in Northern Ireland.

Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party - which supports Mrs May's government in key votes - warned of "consequences" if there is a deal that "breaks up the United Kingdom".


The BBC's Norman Smith said the prime minister would seek to head off the threat of any resignations by telling her cabinet ministers that while not perfect, the agreement was as good as it can get.

Downing Street, he added, were pointing to what they view as significant wins, including no separate customs border for Northern Ireland and an arbitration mechanism to ensure the UK can exit the proposed "backstop" customs plan.

Ministers - including Brexiteers like Liz Truss, Esther McVey and Penny Mordaunt - were among those who filed into Downing Street to read the text ahead of the meeting, amid speculation about further resignations.

Just ahead of the cabinet meeting, all 13 Scottish Tory MPs, including Scottish Secretary David Mundell, signed a letter to the prime minister saying they would not support a Brexit deal that prevents the UK from negotiating its own fishing quotas.

Access and quotas "cannot be included in the Future Economic Partnership" and the UK must leave the Common Fisheries Policy at the end of 2020, they added.

What's been agreed?
The draft withdrawal agreement addresses the Northern Ireland "backstop", which aims to guarantee that physical checks will not be reintroduced at the border with the Irish Republic, in the event of the EU and UK failing to agree a deal on future trading relations that involves not having a physical border.

This has proven the most contentious part of the withdrawal negotiations, with concerns raised by Brexiteer Tories and the DUP over how it will work.

The backstop within the agreed draft is believed to avoid a return to a "hard border" with the Republic by keeping the UK as a whole aligned with the EU customs union for a limited time.

However, some Brexiteers fear this will keep the UK locked into EU trade rules for years.

The agreement also includes commitments over citizens' rights after Brexit, a proposed 21-month transition period after the UK's departure on 29 March 2019 and details of the so-called £39bn "divorce bill".

The future relationship statement is expected to be far shorter, with the UK and the EU's long-term trade arrangements yet to be settled.

What happens next?
If the cabinet signs it off, the EU Commission is expected later to publish the details of the 500-page draft withdrawal agreement as well as the much shorter declaration on future economic and security relations.

Ambassadors from the remaining 27 EU member states will discuss the possibility of organising an emergency summit later this month to sign off on it.

Irish prime minister Leo Varadkar has signalled the summit could take place on 25 November.

If this happens, the government will then face a battle to win Parliament's backing, in a vote the BBC's Laura Kuenssberg said could take place around 7 December.


With some Tories vowing to vote against it and Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party - which Mrs May relies on to win key Commons votes - also expressing concern, it is not clear which way the vote will go.

Brexiteer Conservative MPs were first to criticise the agreement, based on leaks of it, saying it would keep the UK under EU control.

Speaking at Prime Minister's Questions, Peter Bone said the reported agreement would not "deliver" on what people voted for and risked "losing the support of many Tory MPs and millions of voters across the country".

But Mrs May, who is expected to make a statement to MPs on Thursday, said the agreement would leave the UK free to do its own trade deals while the customs union "backstop" would be temporary.

And Conservative Chief Whip Julian Smith said he was "confident" the deal would pass when put to a crucial Commons vote.

Analysis
By BBC political editor Laura Kuenssberg

It doesn't seem to me that many of the cabinet are likely to walk on Wednesday over what's in the document.

It's suggested that those with bigger doubts are more likely to cause problems for the prime minister because it won't get through Parliament.

One source told me senior ministers are thinking not just about the wisdom of backing a deal they don't like because it's a sour compromise, but whether it is folly to back a deal they believe can't get through Parliament.

Slamming on the brakes now would force a crisis, but it could be less serious than the political disaster of pursuing this plan to an eventual calamitous defeat that could take them all down.

Read Laura's full blog
Pienaar: May's big gamble
What are the parties saying?

Media captionMPs react to reports about the draft text of a Brexit agreement
Former foreign secretary Boris Johnson described the reported agreement over the Northern Ireland backstop as "utterly unacceptable to anyone who believes in democracy", and said he would vote against it.

Leading Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg told BBC Newsnight he was so unhappy with the agreement he was considering calling on Mrs May to quit as PM.

The DUP's Jeffrey Donaldson told BBC Radio 4's Today that from "what we have heard... this deal has the potential to lead to the break-up of the United Kingdom and that is not something we can support".

And the SNP's Westminster leader Ian Blackford said the UK was heading towards a Brexit that would "cost jobs" and urged MPs to "think about your constituents' interests, think about jobs, think about prosperity".

But one of Mrs May's allies, former first secretary of state Damian Green, criticised "hyperbole" from people who had not read the document.

And former Conservative leader Lord Hague urged the cabinet to "stick together" - saying the draft agreement contained a "lot of compromises" but would allow the UK to regain control of immigration, fishing and farming.

View from the EU
By BBC Europe editor Katya Adler

What's so striking about this draft Brexit deal the UK media and politicians are all abuzz about, is the marked lack of excitement and/or hysteria in EU circles.

Contrary to the UK narrative, this is not viewed in Brussels as the back-against-the-wall, make-or-break moment.

There's still some time to keep negotiating. EU-UK technical talks are, in fact, ongoing as neither all the "i"s, nor all the "t"s of a deal have yet been dotted or crossed.

The thinking here is: if the UK cabinet or certain EU member states strongly object to specific parts of the draft document (as long as they don't rip up the whole thing), then negotiators can go back to the drawing board.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46203425

 

[James]

May has confirmed that the Cabinet have backed her plan. It was collective rather than unanimous - wonder if there will be any reshuffling?

It’s a small win for May, but I would currently rate the chances of this getting through the Commons as 50-50 at best.

 

[Donal Cozzie]

DUP getting shafted. Deeeeelicious.

Loyalist/DUP twitter is a hell of a lot of fun atm for anyone bored. Gammon flopping on the stove as it gets cooked

 

[MenInG]

Theresa May faces a grilling from MPs later over the draft Brexit agreement the UK has reached with the EU.

The PM secured her cabinet's backing for the deal after a five-hour meeting, although several ministers are understood to have spoken against it.

She has also faced a backlash from Tory Brexiteers and her Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) backers, amid suggestions of moves to force a no-confidence vote.

Labour will announce later whether or not it will back the deal.

However, leader Jeremy Corbyn said he did not believe the agreement - set out in a 585-page document - was in the national interest.

Mrs May is due to give a statement to the House of Commons on Thursday morning.

Read more on :

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46216381

 

[IMMY69]

Raab just resigned...

People in the UK, brace yourselves...

Pound already dropped against both the Euro and the dollar.

 

[IMMY69]

May has confirmed that the Cabinet have backed her plan. It was collective rather than unanimous - wonder if there will be any reshuffling?

It’s a small win for May, but I would currently rate the chances of this getting through the Commons as 50-50 at best.

Not so sure after Raab’s Resignation...

 

[MenInG]

Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab has resigned saying he "cannot in good conscience support" the UK's draft Brexit agreement with the EU.

Theresa May announced on Wednesday evening that she had secured the backing of her cabinet for the agreement, after a five hour meeting.

But several ministers were understood to have spoken against it.

And there are suggestions of moves among Conservative backbenchers to force a no-confidence vote in her.

The prime minister is due to make a Commons statement on the Brexit agreement at 1030 GMT.

Mr Raab - a Leave supporter who was promoted to the cabinet to replace David Davis when he quit in protest at Mrs May's Brexit plans - is among a group of senior ministers thought to be unhappy with the agreement

He was closely involved in drafting the agreement, which sets out the terms of Britain's departure from the EU.

In his resignation letter, Mr Raab said he could not support it because the regulatory regime proposed for Northern Ireland "presents a very real threat to the integrity of the United Kingdom".

And, he added, the "backstop" arrangements aimed at preventing the return of a hard Irish border would result in the EU "holding a veto over our ability to exit".

"Above all, I cannot reconcile the terms of the proposed deal with the promises we made to the country in our manifesto at the last election," he told the prime minister.

The BBC's Norman Smith said Mr Raab's departure puts pressure on other cabinet members to quit, raising the prospect of a "domino effect" that could end in the break-up of the cabinet.

Remain-backing Conservative MP Anna Soubry tweeted: "Raab's resignation marks the end of PMs Withdrawal Agreement. This is v serious the PM will clearly be considering her position. My own view is that we need a Govt of National Unity and we need it now."

Conservative Brexiteer MP Anne Marie Morris told BBC News she believed enough Tory MPs had now sent letters to the chairman of the 1922 committee to trigger a leadership contest.

She said there was enough time to install a new prime minister and change course on Brexit, adding: "Now is not the time for her leadership."

Labour's shadow Brexit Secretary Sir Keir Starmer said: "It is now clear the prime minister didn't have the backing of her cabinet."

He urged her to "listen to Parliament" where, he claimed, there would be a "growing majority" against a no-deal Brexit and in favour of other options.

Earlier on Thursday, Shailesh Vara quit as minister of state for Northern Ireland, saying he cannot support Mrs May's agreement, which he said "leaves the UK in a halfway house with no time limit on when we will finally be a sovereign nation".

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46219495

 

[the Great Khan]

People simply need to understand the reality of the world we live in. The UK will not leave the EU, they will either stay in as they currently do or they will stay in with reduced powers..there is no Brexit..But alas the UK education system has deteriorated to such an extent that you can feed the population any kind of rubbish and they will believe you as long as you blame somebody for their misery.

 

[Abdullah719]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Earlier this morning I informed the Prime Minister I was resigning from her Cabinet <a href="https://t.co/ZeBkL5n2xH">pic.twitter.com/ZeBkL5n2xH</a></p>— Esther McVey (@EstherMcVey1) <a href="https://twitter.com/EstherMcVey1/status/1063008263225126912?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 15, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Markhor]

Raab just resigned...

People in the UK, brace yourselves...

Pound already dropped against both the Euro and the dollar.

Raab resigns because the Brexit deal negotiated is a bad deal.

Who negotiated this bad deal ?

Dominic Raab !

 

[Markhor]

Robert Peston of ITV:

@Jacob_Rees_Mogg threatens to write letter of no confidence in @theresa_may as Tory leader - to her face. High drama

Norman Smith of the BBC:

I’m not sure I’ve seen a PM receiving such a remorseless pummelling in the Commons. Hard to see how she can continue with this Brexit deal.... #friendless

 

[Eagle_Eye]

Raab resigns because the Brexit deal negotiated is a bad deal.

Who negotiated this bad deal ?

Dominic Raab !

No he didn't.

May and her civil servant are the architects of this. They deliberately kept everyone in the dark and bringing things out at the last minute.

Deep state anyone?

This will all backfire with a rise of a British trump.

 

[Markhor]

No he didn't.

May and her civil servant are the architects of this. They deliberately kept everyone in the dark and bringing things out at the last minute.

Deep state anyone?

This will all backfire with a rise of a British trump.

Why did he accept the job in the first place if he didn't feel he had enough control over negotiations ? Why resign now when you provided cover for these negotiations for months ?

Blaming the civil servants is what a weak minister does. The problem is we've had two Brexit Secretaries and neither one stayed on top of their brief. Davis was lazy and didn't understand the detail according to reports. He claimed it would be "easy" to leave and that Britain held all the cards. Raab recently admitted he never knew the extent of trade at the Dover Calais Port !

Ultimately this is down to May who Robbins report to. May promised undeliverable red lines (ending ECJ jurisdiction, leaving the CU, no budget contributions) in 2016 to appease the ERG before reality came to bite.

 

[IMMY69]

A Brexit deal is like removing a brain tumour that has its tentacles firmly entrenched.

Leaving without a deal is like moving from a 5 year fixed price gas supply plan to a variable price plan.

Whatever happens the Country is going to suffer.

 

[Robert]

No ways this gets Parliamentary assent. Labour, Scot Nats, Lib ** and even DUP will vote against with a bunch of Tory rebels.

Result - May goes to the country. This will solve nothing as there will be a another hung Parliament.

But will May survive as Tory leader that long? If not, who is PM? It’s never the knife-wielded who wins Tory elections, it’s someone you don’t expect.

 

[Eagle_Eye]

May to give speech at 5. Let's see if she resigns.

 

[Markhor]

So Theresa is sticking with her plan and compares herself to Geoffrey Boycott who "stuck with it and got the runs in the end."

Boycott did get deliberately run out by one of his teammates at one point...

 

[Abdullah719]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">"Geoffrey Boycott stuck to it and he got the runs in the end" - Theresa May compares herself to her cricketing hero <a href="https://twitter.com/GeoffreyBoycott?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@GeoffreyBoycott</a>.<br><br>Get more on all the political fallout here: <a href="https://t.co/6YKa5xpWPu">https://t.co/6YKa5xpWPu</a> <a href="https://t.co/1eU2X8DRtj">pic.twitter.com/1eU2X8DRtj</a></p>— Sky News (@SkyNews) <a href="https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1063129767224979458?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 15, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[James]

May is a tough cookie to be fair to her. If she is going down, then she is making sure that she will be going down in flames.

 

[Bewal Express]

May is a tough cookie to be fair to her. If she is going down, then she is making sure that she will be going down in flames.

On this i am with May. I think the better option for her and the country is another referendum but this is the next best option.

 

[AAli98]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">"Geoffrey Boycott stuck to it and he got the runs in the end" - Theresa May compares herself to her cricketing hero <a href="https://twitter.com/GeoffreyBoycott?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@GeoffreyBoycott</a>.<br><br>Get more on all the political fallout here: <a href="https://t.co/6YKa5xpWPu">https://t.co/6YKa5xpWPu</a> <a href="https://t.co/1eU2X8DRtj">pic.twitter.com/1eU2X8DRtj</a></p>— Sky News (@SkyNews) <a href="https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1063129767224979458?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 15, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Tuk tuk Misbah & Chanderpaul are her current heros!!

 

[IMMY69]

The Mog has subumitted his letter for a vote of no confidence.

 

[Robert]

So Theresa is sticking with her plan and compares herself to Geoffrey Boycott who "stuck with it and got the runs in the end."

Boycott did get deliberately run out by one of his teammates at one point...

) ) )

Rees-Mogg as Botham!

 

[Eagle_Eye]

) ) )

Rees-Mogg as Botham!

Anyone saw question time tonight?
What a disgraceful and cringe showing from government minister Claire Perry.....

 

[Donal Cozzie]

Oh DUP what shall you do??

Hard Brexit? Advances cause of a United Ireland by 2 decades overnight, decimates the local economy, ensure no local business will ever give them a vote again. Face a slaughter in the polls.

Take Mays deal? Also advances cause of a UI and effectively creates an economic UI. Will be decimated by Unionist voters. Face slaughter in the polls.

Crash the Government? Potential Corbyn Government, who, in absence of Stormont, would almost certainly legislate immediately for Irish language rights and gay marriage rights in NI. Never again be let near a UK Government.

There is no way out ) Squirm squirm squirm!! Once again they have thrown under the bus by the Government they profess loyalty to. Deal wont pass commons but, once again, irrevocable evidence the UK will ditch them any and every chance they get. Delightful! )

 

[giri26]

Previously unthinkable idea of second Brexit referendum suddenly gains traction

WITH British Prime Minister Theresa May’s job under threat and her deal with the European Union in serious doubt, a previously unthinkable option is on the table — a second Brexit referendum.

Britain chose to leave the European Union in June of 2016 by a margin of 1.3 million votes, or 52-48 per cent.

And that was that. The issue was settled. Prime Minister David Cameron resigned, having campaigned for the losing side. His replacement, Ms May, promised to deliver on the will of the people.

“Brexit means Brexit,” she recited constantly, adopting her three-word slogan with a level of vigour worthy of Tony Abbott.

It soon became obvious that leaving the EU would be far messier than the Brexiteers had predicted, and Remainers started to push for a second public vote.

They were repeatedly slapped down. At the 2017 election, both major parties dismissed the idea. The only party supporting it, the Liberal Democrats, got 8 per cent of the vote. It turned into something of a taboo topic.

Now it is suddenly gaining traction.

Ms May faced a two-hour grilling from MPs in parliament today. Some of them asked her about holding a second referendum.

“The British people voted to leave the EU and we have a duty to deliver on that,” she said.

“I have seen other countries and member states of the EU taking matters back to their populace and holding a referendum, and when the vote has gone against what the EU wanted, there has then effectively been a second vote — a sort of ‘go back and think again’ vote. But I do not think it is right that we should do that in this country.

“We gave people the choice. We should deliver on the decision they took.”

However, there has been a shift in Ms May’s rhetoric. She no longer speaks as though Brexit is the only option. In recent days, she has framed the issue as a three-way choice between accepting her deal, leaving the EU without a deal, or not leaving at all.

Obviously Ms May’s leadership is inextricably linked to the deal, and she has promised to “see this through”. But her chances of success are slim. Seven senior ministers have resigned from her Cabinet in protest, she could face a leadership challenge within days, and her attempt to pass the deal through parliament seems doomed to fail.

What happens if the Prime Minister falls?

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn wrote to his party members today and made his intentions clear.

“If parliament votes down this shambolic Tory deal, as seems likely, this will represent a loss of confidence in the government,” he said.

“In those circumstances, the best outcome for the country is an immediate general election that can sweep the Tories from power.

“If we cannot get a general election, in line with our conference policy, we will support all options remaining on the table, including campaigning for a public vote.”

That’s pretty explicit. If Labour cannot force an election, it will push for another Brexit vote. And it seems the public will be on its side.

A poll published by Sky News yesterday showed 55 per cent of Brits were in favour of holding another referendum, while just 35 were opposed.

More than half of the respondents said their preferred option was now to avoid Brexit altogether. About a third wanted Britain to leave the EU without a deal, and just 14 per cent thought Ms May’s agreement was the best choice.

Those are not isolated results. A separate poll conducted by YouGov found a majority of 54 per cent would now vote to remain in the EU, while 46 per cent would still vote to leave. The split was 59-42 in favour of holding another referendum.

This week, Gordon Brown became the third former prime minister to come out in support of the idea.

To say a second vote would be controversial is an immense understatement. The country would go into meltdown. Supporters of Brexit are already furious, because they view Ms May’s deal with the EU as a “betrayal”.

Tory MP Jacob Rees-Mogg — the man currently trying to end her leadership — says the agreement is “worse than the gossip and the rumour and the leaks”.

“Now that I’ve seen it, it’s worse than I thought,” he told ITV yesterday.

“It fails the Prime Minister’s own promises, and that’s the most concerning thing, because a Prime Minister must not promise one thing and do another.”

Former Brexit minister Steve Baker has predicted the agreement “will be in bits in a couple of days”.

Boris Johnson, who resigned as Ms May’s foreign secretary over Brexit, has said it is “vassal state stuff” and “utterly unacceptable to anyone who agrees with democracy”.

UKIP, the controversial minor party which spent years campaigning to leave Europe, has described the deal as “abject surrender” and urged its supporters to “fight back”.

Its former leader Nigel Farage says it’s “the worst deal in history”.

That is the Brexiteers’ response to a draft deal that hasn’t even passed through parliament. Can you imagine their reaction to a second referendum, particularly if they were to lose?

There is another problem as well. What exactly would the referendum ask?

It could pose the same question as before, asking voters to choose between leaving the EU or remaining.

It could ask them to pick one of the three options Ms May has outlined — her deal, no deal, or no Brexit at all.

Either way, the process would undoubtedly be ugly.

And whatever happens, it will have to happen quickly. Britain’s deadline for leaving the EU passes on March 19 next year. If nothing drastic changes before then, Brexit will indeed mean Brexit — with or without a deal.

https://www.news.com.au/finance/eco...n/news-story/7ac10e31ffb4eb98951938c194f00e39

 

[MenInG]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">My letter of resignation sent to PM <a href="https://twitter.com/theresa_may?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@theresa_may</a> stepping down as Vice Chairman <a href="https://twitter.com/Conservatives?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Conservatives</a> & PM Trade Envoy to Pakistan. 1. Cannot support Draft EU Withdrawal Agreement. 2. Very disappointed by lack of leadership shown by UK Gov to do morally right thing in Asia Bibi Case. <a href="https://t.co/hcaxba1hJr">pic.twitter.com/hcaxba1hJr</a></p>— Rehman Chishti (@Rehman_Chishti) <a href="https://twitter.com/Rehman_Chishti/status/1063083736164720640?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 15, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[the Great Khan]

lol..we are seeing how stupid the general public is. Fed by years of "oh don't believe conspiracy theories" nonsense they are finding out who really runs this planet..lol..

The UK will not be leaving the EU no matter what they tell you..it will either be a "vassal state" or a full partner. That is the choice..there is no leaving..anybody who believes leaving is a good deal is a *****..end of..

the geopolitical future that is coming means it is essential the UK stays in the EU to survive..otherwise ?

 

[IMMY69]

lol..we are seeing how stupid the general public is. Fed by years of "oh don't believe conspiracy theories" nonsense they are finding out who really runs this planet..lol..

The UK will not be leaving the EU no matter what they tell you..it will either be a "vassal state" or a full partner. That is the choice..there is no leaving..anybody who believes leaving is a good deal is a *****..end of..

the geopolitical future that is coming means it is essential the UK stays in the EU to survive..otherwise ?

Well I've already said that crashing out would be extremely bad for the UK.
The best option for me is to remain within the EU, otherwise this deal is the next best option.

I said that getting a deal to take us out of the EU would be like extracting an incurable brain tumour. It's almost impossible to do this and keep everyone happy.

This view is held with or without any conspiracy theories thrown in.

 

[Robert]

Oh DUP what shall you do??

Hard Brexit? Advances cause of a United Ireland by 2 decades overnight, decimates the local economy, ensure no local business will ever give them a vote again. Face a slaughter in the polls.

Take Mays deal? Also advances cause of a UI and effectively creates an economic UI. Will be decimated by Unionist voters. Face slaughter in the polls.

Crash the Government? Potential Corbyn Government, who, in absence of Stormont, would almost certainly legislate immediately for Irish language rights and gay marriage rights in NI. Never again be let near a UK Government.

There is no way out ) Squirm squirm squirm!! Once again they have thrown under the bus by the Government they profess loyalty to. Deal wont pass commons but, once again, irrevocable evidence the UK will ditch them any and every chance they get. Delightful! )

Nailed. It.

 

[Cpt. Rishwat]

lol..we are seeing how stupid the general public is. Fed by years of "oh don't believe conspiracy theories" nonsense they are finding out who really runs this planet..lol..

The UK will not be leaving the EU no matter what they tell you..it will either be a "vassal state" or a full partner. That is the choice..there is no leaving..anybody who believes leaving is a good deal is a *****..end of..

the geopolitical future that is coming means it is essential the UK stays in the EU to survive..otherwise ?

It's amazing how reasonably intelligent people can be led down the garden path by a few tabloids playing on fear for a few extra sales. People have been sold the Little England nostalgia trip which has no relevance in today's world. Oh well, in for a penny in for a pound as they say. If we are going to Brexit we should go all the way.

 

[the Great Khan]

It's amazing how reasonably intelligent people can be led down the garden path by a few tabloids playing on fear for a few extra sales. People have been sold the Little England nostalgia trip which has no relevance in today's world. Oh well, in for a penny in for a pound as they say. If we are going to Brexit we should go all the way.

They are not intelligent. I have realised that most people are generally politically "thick" and politically stupid. They just cover their stupidity and ignorance with a veneer. The general populace in the uk are politcally illiterate and politically stupid. They have no clue..

 

[Donal Cozzie]

They are not intelligent. I have realised that most people are generally politically "thick" and politically stupid. They just cover their stupidity and ignorance with a veneer. The general populace in the uk are politcally illiterate and politically stupid. They have no clue..

In light of some of the crap I've read about Ireland and NI over the past 12 months, and the fact that near half STILL want a No Deal, I agree with this fully

 

[gazza619]

Emerging reports suggest Tories submit 48 letters for vote of no confidence in Theresa May

Ben Gelblum
November 16, 2018

The 48 letters from Conservative MPs needed to trigger avote of no confidence in Theresa May’s leadership have been submitted to the1922 Committee, a single -sourced Reuters Brexit editor is reporting.


Their BrexitCentral editor cites a source who he insists is always reliable.

“Unconfirmed and from a single (always previously reliable) source – but hearing that the 48 letters are in and Downing Street are preparing for a no confidence motion in Theresa May as Conservative leader…” tweeted Reuters’ Jonathan Isaby who is well connected to Brexiters in the Conservative Party.

The Huffpost’s Paul Waugh just tweeted: “All Govt whips havejust been told to cancel Friday constituency engagements and convene inParliament today, one source tells me. Make of that what you will?”

Sky News say sources are confirming this too.

“All government whips have been told to cancel any engagements today and return to London as a source close to the whip’s office says a no confidence vote in the Prime Minister is now “likely” Sky news is reporting.

“Have this confirmed by a source close to the whips office. They are heading back to SW1. Source tells me it must now be likely that confidence vote happening. “Got to be close if not there already” – says Beth RIgby Sky News’ Deputy Political Editor.


A series of perfectly timed resignations yesterday morning included Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab, regarded by Tories as a “poster boy forBrexit.”

Hours after Theresa May addressed the nation in a press conference to insist that everything was on track, reports are emerging that enough letters have been submitted to the Conservative backbenchers’ 1922 committee to trigger a leadership contest in the party.

“I am not in denial” the Prime Minister insisted last night when questioned about how she would get her Brexit deal through Parliament.

But the DUP had withdrawn their 10 MPs’ support that she hasbeen relying on for a majority, making it extremely unlikely that she can gether deal through the Commons in the face of objections from Labour and her ownMPs determined to vote against her deal.


“For what it’s worth, I can’t find a Tory MP who thinks the 48 no-confidence letters aren’t already with the 1922’s Brady. And surprising people are telling me they will vote against her, if (when?) it comes to it” Robert Peston tweeted yesterday.

Earlier Jacob Rees-Mogg publicly handed in a letter of no-confidence in Theresa May’s leadership to Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the1922 Committee and called on other MPs too.

When asked who would make a good leader for the party, the hardline Brexiter only mentioned fellow Brexit-supporting Tories Boris Johnson,Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Esther McVey and Penny Mordant.


The prominent Brexiter said Theresa May’s Brexit deal “has turned out to be worse than anticipated and fails to meet the promises given to the nation by the Prime Minister”.

The letter follows up on a threat Mr Rees-Mogg made in the House of Commons this morning, when he reeled off a list of promises he said the Prime Minister had broken with the EU withdrawal agreement.

Which MPs have submitted letters to the 1922 Committee?

The 18 Conservative MPs who have admitted publicly that they have submitted letters calling for a vote of no confidence in the PrimeMinister Theresa May are:

Andrea Jenkyns, Andrew Bridgen, Philip Davies, James Duddridge, Nadine Dorries, Martin Vickers, Adam Holloway, Lee Rowley, Simon Clarke, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Peter Bone, John Whittingdale, Laurence Robertson, Steve Baker, Maria Caulfield, Lee Rowley, Simon Clarke, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Peter Bone, John Whittingdale, Laurence Robertson, Steve Baker and Maria Caulfield.

At the same time resignations started hours after Theresa May presented the Brexit agreement to her cabinet.

Michael Gove refuses to say if he will resign.

Suella Braverman quit as minister in the Brexit department. She was the 4th resignation yesterday after Esther McVey, Dominc Raab and theNorthern Ireland Minster Shailesh Vara earlier today,


Boris Johnson was also seen bolting from the ERG meeting, and declined to speak to reporters.

And Tories were briefing a vote of no confidence was just a matter of time for their leader.

David Davis’ former advisor Stewart Jackson told LBC radio: “I think she’s finished, let’s be honest. I mean, she’s totally finished. You’ll have 48 letters in by next week.

“She’s lost the trust of the parliamentary party. It’s not just Brexiteers. The point is that for so many months she has obfuscated all the details of what, in secret, she has been negotiating with Olly Robbins and others with the European Union.”


“Sensing the levels of frustration and annoyance colleagues are feeling it would not surprise me if organically letters are going in,” Brexiteer MP Conor Burns also told LBC, adding, “anybody looking in could rightly conclude that most people are appalled at the mess we are in.

“This is an embarrassment for Britain. It’s an embarrassment for us all.”


https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/n...r-vote-of-no-confidence-in-theresa-may/16/11/

 

[James]

She will survive the No Confidence vote in my opinion, and she is clearly also too stubborn to resign. Forget the Maybot - this woman is like the Terminator in politician form.

 

[shaz619]

She will survive the No Confidence vote in my opinion, and she is clearly also too stubborn to resign. Forget the Maybot - this woman is like the Terminator in politician form.

She will get the runs in the end

 

[shaz619]

Also, a deal is better then no deal; we need to move on from this for gods sake. I would take those 48 letters, turn them sides and stick them straight up each and every.....or May should just use them for toilet paper in her kingdom.

 

[shaz619]

May is actually coming out looking so much better then everyone else right now, for once she is showing tru leadership pedigree. I respect that, she is coming across as a bit of a hero to be honest; and lets not forget, she didn't cause this mess but is trying her best to clean it up but the petulant children around her are just making it so difficult, never mind that dopey bloke who failed his a-levels and has zero higher education qualifications.

 

[Eagle_Eye]

She wants the leadership contest now before the vote.

The brexiteers should wait and go for the no confidence after the vote on the deal in parliament, which will not go through. At that point she will have nowhere left to turn and effectively politically dead.

 

[James]

I’m not sure if the No Confidence vote can be delayed that long.

Once the 48+ letters are in - which it has been suggested that they might already be - then it all happens pretty sharpish.

Tuesday is the current rumoured date.

She has well over 200 loyalists though and she only needs 160 votes, so I can’t see any other outcome than a clear victory for May in this.

 

[Eagle_Eye]

I’m not sure if the No Confidence vote can be delayed that long.

Once the 48+ letters are in - which it has been suggested that they might already be - then it all happens pretty sharpish.

Tuesday is the current rumoured date.

She has well over 200 loyalists though and she only needs 160 votes, so I can’t see any other outcome than a clear victory for May in this.

You can withdraw the letter at anytime. Some may have done that.

If she wins the no confidence, she can't be challenged for another year.

 

[the Great Khan]

I’m not sure if the No Confidence vote can be delayed that long.

Once the 48+ letters are in - which it has been suggested that they might already be - then it all happens pretty sharpish.

Tuesday is the current rumoured date.

She has well over 200 loyalists though and she only needs 160 votes, so I can’t see any other outcome than a clear victory for May in this.

Its not the vote that you guys need to keep an eye on. Its the number of votes she gets against her. If she wins overwhemingly then she will survive. If she sneaks through she is finished. Just go back and see what happened to Maggie. Gove is now positioning himself as the next leader.

 

[Eagle_Eye]

How can she stay on if she loses the vote on the deal.

 

[Robert]

How can she stay on if she loses the vote on the deal.

She would be forced to call a general election. But it looks like nobody will challenge her as Tory Leader. Nobody wants the poisoned chalice of Brexit.

 

[giri26]

Boris Johnson condemns Theresa May’s Brexit ‘remedy’

British Prime Minister Theresa May’s suggestion that issues with the Brexit deal can be remedied in talks over its future ties with the bloc are “a tragic illusion” or “an attempt at deception,” former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson says.

In the days since she unveiled a draft EU divorce deal, Mrs May’s leadership has been thrust into crisis. Several ministers, including her Brexit minister, have resigned and some of her own members of parliament are seeking to oust her.

Following strong criticism of her exit deal, Mrs May used an interview on Sunday to emphasise the outline agreement on Britain’s future relationship with the bloc was still being negotiated and would deliver on the 2016 Brexit vote.

“Of all the lies that are currently being peddled, the worst is that this agreement can somehow be remedied in the next stage of the talks,” Mr Johnson wrote in his weekly column for The Daily Telegraph.

“I have heard it said that this is like a football match, in which we are one- nil down at half-time, but as the Prime Minister suggested in her interview ... we can still pull it back and get the Brexit we want,” Mr Johnson wrote. “I am afraid this is either a tragic illusion or an attempt at deception ... we are about to give the EU the right to veto our departure from the customs union. Why should they let us go?”

Mr Johnson, who resigned in protest at Mrs May’s Brexit plans in July, is viewed as a potential successor to the British leader.

Setting out his own suggestions for the way forward, Mr Johnson said Britain should scrap the so-called Northern Ireland backstop, an insurance policy to avoid a return to border checks between the British province and EU-member Ireland. The backstop, one of the most contentious parts of the deal, would mean Britain being trapped in “economic and political servitude” to the EU, he said. Instead, both sides could discuss creating new unobtrusive checks away from the frontier, he said.

Britain should also withhold at least half of the £39 billion ($A682bn) divorce payment until an enhanced Canada-style free trade deal between the EU and UK had been reached, he said, adding that preparations for leaving without a deal should be accelerated.

“This needs to be treated as a challenge to be overcome, not as an inevitable disaster; because after the short-term logistical difficulties, the prospects for jobs and growth, and free-trade deals, would be very good indeed,” he said.

‘A change of leadership isn’t going to make it easier’

Mrs May warned that a leadership change wouldn’t make Brexit negotiations easier, as opponents in her Conservative Party threaten to unseat her and the former Brexit secretary suggested she failed to stand up to bullying from European Union officials.

As furious Conservative rebels try to gather the numbers to trigger a no-confidence vote, Mrs May insisted she hadn’t considered quitting. “A change of leadership at this point isn’t going to make the negotiations any easier and it isn’t going to change the parliamentary arithmetic,” she told Sky News.

Mrs May added that the next seven days “are going to be critical” for successful Brexit talks, and that she will be travelling to Brussels to meet with EU leaders before an emergency European Council summit on November. 25.

An announcement last week that Britain has struck a draft divorce agreement with the EU triggered a political crisis in Britain, with the deal roundly savaged by both the opposition and large chunks of May’s own Conservatives. Two Cabinet ministers and several junior government members quit, and more than 20 lawmakers have submitted letters of no confidence in May.

Forty-eight such letters — or 15 per cent of Conservative lawmakers — are needed for a leadership challenge vote. Asked about the attacks directed at her, Mrs May said: “It doesn’t distract me. Politics is a tough business and I’ve been in it for a long time.”

Dominic Raab, who quit Thursday as Brexit secretary, said “there is one thing missing and that is political will and resolve.”

“If we cannot close this deal on reasonable terms, we need to be very honest with the country that we will not be bribed and blackmailed or bullied and we will walk away,” he told The Sunday Times.

Many pro-Brexit Conservatives want a clean break with the EU and argue that the close trade ties between the UK and the EU called for in the deal would leave Britain a vassal state, with no way to independently disentangle itself from the bloc.

The draft agreement envisions Britain leaving the EU as planned on March 29, but remaining inside the bloc’s single market and bound by its rules until the end of December 2020.

It also commits the two sides to the contentious “backstop” solution, which would keep the UK in a customs arrangement with the EU until a permanent trade treaty is worked out. That will serve to guarantee that the border between the UK’s Northern Ireland and EU member Ireland remained free of customs checkpoints after Brexit.

Both Britain and the EU want to ensure Northern Ireland’s hard-won peace process isn’t undermined, but reaching an agreement on how to achieve that had long been a key obstacle in the negotiations.

Enough to challenge ‘within two days’

The number of Tory MPs known to have submitted letters of no confidence in Mrs May has risen to 25 as hard Brexiteers claimed that they were on target to reach more than 50 in the next two days.

The former London mayoral candidate Zac Goldsmith became the latest high-profile Conservative to declare that he had lost confidence in the prime minister and said that the party needed a “fresh start”.

The veteran Eurosceptic MP Sir Bill Cash said yesterday that he had also submitted a formal declaration of no confidence in the prime minister, accusing her of “broken promises”.

One senior Tory said that the number of MPs who would have privately written to Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Committee of backbench Tories which oversees the election of party leaders, was likely to be “at least a dozen”. The senior Tory added: “If there are 25 who have said they’ve put in letters then they must be nearly there. There will be a load of people who won’t have admitted it.”

Yesterday Sir Graham, who will declare when the threshold of 48 letters has been reached, confirmed publicly for the first time that the target had not been met. He added that if and when it was he would “expeditiously” trigger a formal vote of no confidence in the prime minister. Sources suggested that this could come within 24 hours of the threshold being met.

“The whole thing is written with the intention that it should be an expeditious process,” Sir Graham told Pienaar’s Politics on BBC Radio 5 Live, adding that “it ought to be a test of opinion very quickly, in order to clear the air and get it resolved”.

Sir Graham said that even his wife and other officers on the 1922 Committee had no idea how many letters had been received. “I get asked it in the supermarket, I get asked it in the street,” he said. “I’ve become very nervous about counting, or saying numbers, in case people think I’m saying something that I’m not. Victoria does not know, nor do the two vice-chairmen of the 1922 Committee or the other officers.”

Sir Graham said that past experience had taught him to be cautious about taking declared statements of intent at face value. Under the rules MPs can submit letters and withdraw them at any stage before a contest is triggered.

Sir Graham said: “I’ve been doing this job for eight years and some years ago I certainly had the experience of seeing somebody claiming publicly to have written me a letter when they hadn’t.” The same MP announced in the media that they had withdrawn the letter that they had not written in the first place, he added.

Steve Baker, the former Brexit minister, who is co-ordinating the letter-writing campaign, has said that he has had pledges from more than 50 MPs.

If a vote of confidence is triggered Mrs May would only have to win the support of half her parliamentary party to carry on and could not be challenged again for another year. However, one MP said if more than 100 out of the Tories’ 315 MPs voted against her or abstained her position would almost certainly be untenable.

Sir Graham predicted that Mrs May would win a confidence vote and told the northwest edition of the BBC One Sunday Politics program: “It would be a huge relief for me because people would have to stop asking me questions about numbers of letters for at least 12 months.”

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/ne...y/news-story/f322b9ff5b2011c543449aeff6f5f25a

 

[Markhor]

After all that huffing and puffing from the likes of Jacob Rees Mogg, it appears there aren't enough MPs who support a no confidence vote against Theresa May.

There needs to be 48 letters sent to the 1922 Committee but it appears the rebel Tories are well short.

 

[Robert]

Vince Cable is calling on Corbyn to table a No Confidence vote in the Government.

It will probably fail, but that will leave Corbyn no room for further constructive ambiguity. He must either back PeoplesVote or show his true colours as a Leaver.

 

[Yossarian]

Vince Cable is calling on Corbyn to table a No Confidence vote in the Government.

It will probably fail, but that will leave Corbyn no room for further constructive ambiguity. He must either back PeoplesVote or show his true colours as a Leaver.

Why should Corbyn do Vince Cable's bidding? Especially if its likely to fail.
Best thing for Corbyn to do is to sit back and watch the Tories implode, along with the Tories being seen as the ones responsible for the Brexit mess. THEN Labour/Corbyn can go and win the next election with ease.

 

[Markhor]

<iframe width="400" height="500" frameborder="0" src="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/embed/p06snkcd/46319276"></iframe>

Will we better off under your deal or remaining in the EU ?

"It will be different."

Basically, we will be worse off outside the EU economically, but politically we will be better off as we can finally put an end to free movement of people. Just say it man.

 

[Abdullah719]

Brexit: Donald Tusk tells European Union to approve deal

European Council President Donald Tusk has recommended that the EU approve the Brexit deal at a summit on Sunday.

It comes after Spanish PM Pedro Sanchez received assurances from the UK government over Gibraltar, and dropped his threat to boycott the summit.

He said he had received the written guarantees he needed over Spain's role in the future of the British territory.

UK Prime Minister Theresa May has arrived in Brussels to hold talks with top EU officials, ahead of the summit.

Meanwhile, former UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson said the UK would become a "satellite state" under the deal.

The UK is scheduled to leave the EU on 29 March 2019.

The terms of the UK's withdrawal have been under negotiation since June 2016 following a referendum in which 51.9% voted to leave the EU.

Even if the EU approves the deal, it still has to be passed by the UK Parliament, with many MPs having stated their opposition.

Spain had raised last-minute objections ahead of the summit about how the issue of Gibraltar had been handled in the Brexit talks so far.

But EU leaders secured a compromise with the Spanish prime minister, who said that Europe and the UK "had accepted the conditions set down by Spain" and so would "vote in favour of Brexit".

Mr Tusk, who represents EU leaders on the world stage, said he recommended "that we approve on Sunday the outcome of the Brexit negotiations" in a letter to members of the European Council.

He added: "No-one has reasons to be happy. But at least at this critical time, the EU 27 has passed the test of unity and solidarity."

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46330380

 

[James]

Seems as if Theresa May will get to the final hurdle in this process - trying to convince Parliament to pass her Brexit deal. But that is looking like an impossible task at the moment.

 

[shaz619]

[MENTION=53290]Markhor[/MENTION] Isn't a deal, better then no deal ? If this doesn't get passed what do you anticipate, ideally we need to get a move on now.

 

[Donal Cozzie]

Nobody else think that May, knowing what a disaster Brexit is, has timed this so that Parliament has no choice but to either take this deal or rerun the referendum and Remain?

Fairly obvious if this Deal as seems likely is shot down, you guys get either No Deal which sets you back about six decades, or Remain. No time for anything else to be negotiated.

That said if May came out tomorrow and said the backstop applied to NI only and the UK would totally break off I think this would pass easily. Enough Labour rebels in the Commons to compensate for the DUP voting against.

 

[gazza619]

Nobody else think that May, knowing what a disaster Brexit is, has timed this so that Parliament has no choice but to either take this deal or rerun the referendum and Remain?

Fairly obvious if this Deal as seems likely is shot down, you guys get either No Deal which sets you back about six decades, or Remain. No time for anything else to be negotiated.

That said if May came out tomorrow and said the backstop applied to NI only and the UK would totally break off I think this would pass easily. Enough Labour rebels in the Commons to compensate for the DUP voting against.

A no deal will take Brits back six decades is a bit of an exagarration I think.

I believe the failure in this whole brexit process has more to do with Thersa May’s persona. She does not have the same respect in the UK or in EU which a British PM should have. I may be wrong.

 

[Donal Cozzie]

A no deal will take Brits back six decades is a bit of an exagarration I think.

I believe the failure in this whole brexit process has more to do with Thersa May’s persona. She does not have the same respect in the UK or in EU which a British PM should have. I may be wrong.

The UK has no trade deals with anybody, the deals it has are deals which the EU has amassed since the 70s. No Deal Brexit dumps them out of every single trade deal they currently have and replaces it with WTO tariffs, where the average trade deal takes somewhere around 7 years to be negotiated.

4 decades then to be exact, almost five

 

[Eagle_Eye]

May has managed this in a way to reverse brexit. All this bungling was no accident. She was never sincere nor had the conviction to carry it through. Any sensible person would have started to prepare for no deal from day one as a priority.

My hunch is that the deal will not pass and she will be forced out.

Project fear is out in full force. Is a no deal that bad?

 

[Eagle_Eye]

Nobody else think that May, knowing what a disaster Brexit is, has timed this so that Parliament has no choice but to either take this deal or rerun the referendum and Remain?

Fairly obvious if this Deal as seems likely is shot down, you guys get either No Deal which sets you back about six decades, or Remain. No time for anything else to be negotiated.

That said if May came out tomorrow and said the backstop applied to NI only and the UK would totally break off I think this would pass easily. Enough Labour rebels in the Commons to compensate for the DUP voting against.

No deal adversely affects you...

What happens to your exports?

Maybe next time there is an economic crisis, we won't be providing liquidity overnight to prop up your banks... so that when little Donal goes to cash point, there won't be any money coming out. This was merely 10 years ago. We saved you guys from humiliation. ....

 

[KingKhanWC]

May has managed this in a way to reverse brexit. All this bungling was no accident. She was never sincere nor had the conviction to carry it through. Any sensible person would have started to prepare for no deal from day one as a priority.

My hunch is that the deal will not pass and she will be forced out.

Project fear is out in full force. Is a no deal that bad?

I think she is a person who thinks of her legacy as PM. Knowing the complications with Brexit, she wanted the job and now feels her deal is a good one. I think she is still deluded in thinking her deal will pass esp with business leaders urging MP's to vote in its favour. It wont pass, sterling will fall and the UK will be in serious bother.

Another refurendum will see a clear win for remain leading to even perhaps taking on board the Euro and ditching sterling. The public in the UK are too stupid to realise Britain is no longer the worlds biggest power, it needs others to maintain it's wealthy status.

 

[Donal Cozzie]

No deal adversely affects you...

What happens to your exports?

Maybe next time there is an economic crisis, we won't be providing liquidity overnight to prop up your banks... so that when little Donal goes to cash point, there won't be any money coming out. This was merely 10 years ago. We saved you guys from humiliation. ....

It does, correct, hence why I want it avoided. That said we've done all we can, Brexit does provide opportunities for us to attract even more FDI from firms looking to retain a presence in the EU and in a natively english speaking country too.

Our exports? Obviously they suffer, but the EU is a significantly larger market and trade partner than the UK individually are, although the UK are obviously crucially important, the question can be turned around. UK buys tonnes of Irish agriproducts, what happens UK imports f tariffs get placed on that? Its not a one sum game.

I am no fan of the Irish Government domestically but on Brexit they have played an absolute blinder. Have been prepared for this since before the referendum even ran, compare that to the fiasco going on in Westminster. ECB also providing billions in low interest loans to Irish businesses through the Irish Government with the explicit aim of helping them diversify their clients to a more EU wide base instead of relying solely on the UK. The best bit is, UK companies are also able to avail of these, some where even here in the city I'm in now, at my university, trying to do so according to Faisal Islam. When NI based firms have asked the UK Gov for advice on what to do, the response? "Ask Dublin"

And please, ditch that "we bailed you out " tripe. Had the Irish banks went under the UK banking sector would have been immediately next in line due to their exposure to the toxic industry here, the UK gave the money to suit their own interests which is totally fine for what its worth. Considering though Ireland approached them two years ago offering to pay the entire loan back immediately, and the UK said no as they wanted to collect the inzerest, I think we can place that "we saved you" colonial imperialistic rhetoric well and truly to bed.

Said it before and will say again, I could not give a damn, aside from curiosity, what the mainland UK does with itself. My only concern is with the island of Ireland. If the UK want to place tariffs on Irish goods and commit economic suicide by leaving the EU thats really totally fine, its their right. Would be foolish to think it wont also provide opportunities for us though. My priority is to see this island economically and culturally prosperous, which despite the DUP's headbanging, will continue long after we're all dead, despite some bumps in the road.

 

[James]

General Election coming in February I reckon.

 

[Robert]

General Election coming in February I reckon.

Won’t fix anything. The May deal is still all the EU27 will accept.

There would have to be a No Confidence motion and it will fail, I think.

 

[Robert]

May has managed this in a way to reverse brexit. All this bungling was no accident. She was never sincere nor had the conviction to carry it through. Any sensible person would have started to prepare for no deal from day one as a priority.

My hunch is that the deal will not pass and she will be forced out.

Project fear is out in full force. Is a no deal that bad?

2% to 16% percent drop in GDP predicted, depending on region. That ranges from another ten years of austerity in London and the South-West to actual Great Depression in the North-East and North-West. The fascists will start to organise, and minorities will get the blame.

Plus the collapse of the GFA.

 

[Eagle_Eye]

It does, correct, hence why I want it avoided. That said we've done all we can, Brexit does provide opportunities for us to attract even more FDI from firms looking to retain a presence in the EU and in a natively english speaking country too.

Our exports? Obviously they suffer, but the EU is a significantly larger market and trade partner than the UK individually are, although the UK are obviously crucially important, the question can be turned around. UK buys tonnes of Irish agriproducts, what happens UK imports f tariffs get placed on that? Its not a one sum game.

I am no fan of the Irish Government domestically but on Brexit they have played an absolute blinder. Have been prepared for this since before the referendum even ran, compare that to the fiasco going on in Westminster. ECB also providing billions in low interest loans to Irish businesses through the Irish Government with the explicit aim of helping them diversify their clients to a more EU wide base instead of relying solely on the UK. The best bit is, UK companies are also able to avail of these, some where even here in the city I'm in now, at my university, trying to do so according to Faisal Islam. When NI based firms have asked the UK Gov for advice on what to do, the response? "Ask Dublin"

And please, ditch that "we bailed you out " tripe. Had the Irish banks went under the UK banking sector would have been immediately next in line due to their exposure to the toxic industry here, the UK gave the money to suit their own interests which is totally fine for what its worth. Considering though Ireland approached them two years ago offering to pay the entire loan back immediately, and the UK said no as they wanted to collect the inzerest, I think we can place that "we saved you" colonial imperialistic rhetoric well and truly to bed.

Said it before and will say again, I could not give a damn, aside from curiosity, what the mainland UK does with itself. My only concern is with the island of Ireland. If the UK want to place tariffs on Irish goods and commit economic suicide by leaving the EU thats really totally fine, its their right. Would be foolish to think it wont also provide opportunities for us though. My priority is to see this island economically and culturally prosperous, which despite the DUP's headbanging, will continue long after we're all dead, despite some bumps in the road.

I concur with your last sentence for the island I reside on.

No you are wrong, the UK bailed you out because it wanted to see Ireland not goto the wall. UK exposure would have been managed like it was done for everything else. I understand this deep rooted indoctrination against the English and where it comes from.... look I am sympathetic to that and support the the union of the island of Ireland. When the UK does something good, just take it in the spirit that it is intended, we are not living in Britain of 100 years ago.

your agricultural exports have a huge market share of UK market. As an example .... most halal beef comes from Ireland. You are not going to stop trying to export to uk, just means that you will have to compete with cheaper alternatives from the likes Argentina... Brazil. People like me who like your grass fed cows, will have alternatives to choose from Argentina or Brazil or anywhere else. Right now, the EU is a protectionist club and you have enjoyed the benefits of that monopoly. Who knows, people might still prefer to pay little extra for Irish goods. All these predictions of doom and gloom are just that. No deal may not have the impact on your economy as being suggested.

The pound 'tanking'.... that has resulted in increase rise in exports. None of project fear predictions came true. What drove Germany to be the powerhouse ... one reason (amongst many) is that the euro made German exports cheaper compared to duetch mark.

As I said, they should have gone all out to work on no deal scenario from day one.

 

[IMMY69]

EU lawyers say there can be no unilateral withdrawal of article 50.
So we cannot go back without approval of all 27 nations which leaves all EU states able to renegotiate.
Doubt would get the same deal as we had which players in to Brexiteers hands, kills any talk of a second referendum.

So we are hurtling in to this. To say everyone will be 2-3k worse off each per year masks massive variations and is just nonsense. If we leave without a deal, which is now looking more likely, we end up with a general election towards end of January, early February.

All this will mean the pound crashing, cost of living going up, interest rates going up and property prices crashing. I know some people would like cheaper housing for youngsters but a property crash would be devastating for those that have large mortgages (which is pretty much the majority of UK homeowners).

Austerity measures will continue. If labour wins then government borrowing will increase exponentially to fund spending but this will come at great cost and risk to the economy.

The social impact will be massive and I dread to think what impact this will have on the minorities and the UK as a whole.

 

[shortbread]

interest rates going up and property prices crashing

While I agree for the most of it, as long as Carney sits atop BoE, Interest rates will remain low and asset prices will be supported. He's a banker (ex Goldman) and loves cheap credit, that's why they gave him the job in the first place. This guy orchestrated the Canadian housing price crash!

Any hike in interest rates will pop the credit bubble, he wont let that happen. Wait and watch a pound free fall!

USD, Gold and EM accounts is where to put it I think, as well as buy some popcorn to watch the whole thing unfold!

 

[IMMY69]

While I agree for the most of it, as long as Carney sits atop BoE, Interest rates will remain low and asset prices will be supported. He's a banker (ex Goldman) and loves cheap credit, that's why they gave him the job in the first place. This guy orchestrated the Canadian housing price crash!

Any hike in interest rates will pop the credit bubble, he wont let that happen. Wait and watch a pound free fall!

USD, Gold and EM accounts is where to put it I think, as well as buy some popcorn to watch the whole thing unfold!

It was Carney himself who said that if we exit without a deal that property prices will crash by 35%.

A weak/free falling pound = higher cost of imports = higher prices for goods = inflation = higher interest rates

The reason why brexiteers are ok with a hard exit is because they think we can do without imported goods and that it will strengthen domestic production which will produce jobs for British People. Problem with all this is that a hard Brexit will lead to wage inflation which will impact on local producers. Either domestic producers will have to increase their prices or worse, they will go out of business.

So the consumer will be hit either way and with rising prices and inflation there will have to be major increases in interest rates. Higher interest rates means higher credit lines for business and so the vicious cycle continues.

In my mind I can see clearly how a no deal exit will work out, at least in the short term (i.e. for the next 7 to 10 years) and I sincerely hope I'm wrong.

 

[shortbread]

It was Carney himself who said that if we exit without a deal that property prices will crash by 35%.

A weak/free falling pound = higher cost of imports = higher prices for goods = inflation = higher interest rates

I agree with your theory but that is not how Carney works.

First of all I would never take anything Carney says seriously, his nickname is the 'unreliable boyfriend'. All his predictions came wrong!

Carney's fix to all issues related to a slow economy is to crash interest rates, the guy loves quantitative easing. Low interest rates, cheap credit and start pumping the bubble.

The UK rates should be around 1.25% by now in order to create a post Brexit buffer. The economy has been resilient, there has been job creation, commodity prices like oil have been rising.....so all bankers would see this as an opportunity to raise rates.

But not Carney, he plays for the banks plain and simple. Banks want low base rates, set chunky LIBOR (hence profits) and lend to people as much as possible.

The first thing Carney did after people voted Yes was to lower rates, knee jerk. I expect more of the same. He'll bring rates to .25-.5% claiming it to help boost economy while rest of the country grapples with a weak pound and inflation!

 

[IMMY69]

I agree with your theory but that is not how Carney works.

First of all I would never take anything Carney says seriously, his nickname is the 'unreliable boyfriend'. All his predictions came wrong!

Carney's fix to all issues related to a slow economy is to crash interest rates, the guy loves quantitative easing. Low interest rates, cheap credit and start pumping the bubble.

The UK rates should be around 1.25% by now in order to create a post Brexit buffer. The economy has been resilient, there has been job creation, commodity prices like oil have been rising.....so all bankers would see this as an opportunity to raise rates.

But not Carney, he plays for the banks plain and simple. Banks want low base rates, set chunky LIBOR (hence profits) and lend to people as much as possible.

The first thing Carney did after people voted Yes was to lower rates, knee jerk. I expect more of the same. He'll bring rates to .25-.5% claiming it to help boost economy while rest of the country grapples with a weak pound and inflation!

I see your point re Carney. BUT he was appointed by Osborne and the likelihood is that we may end up with a labour government sometime in January/February and that could mean the end for Carney.

Labours plans are to increase taxes for the corporations and higher income earners and to borrow to spend on welfare, hospital, schools etc.. Tories would go the Singapore route of lowering taxes etc to tempt companies in to the country.

Whichever way, inflation has to go up. The ordinary person will be hit hardest and so interest rate hikes will happen irrespective of who the Governor of the BofE is. They simply cannot keep interest rates low with high inflation. It would be the death nail for Carney if he kept interest rates low while the pound was plummeting and with the inflation going the other way.

I see no way out of this mess if we go down the route of a hard exit.

 

[Zeeraq]

Brexit will make UK worse off, government forecasts warn

The UK will be poorer economically under any form of Brexit, compared with staying in the EU, government analysis suggests.

Official figures say the UK economy could be up to 3.9% smaller after 15 years under Theresa May's Brexit plan, compared with staying in the EU.

But a no-deal Brexit could deliver a 9.3% hit, the new estimates say.

Chancellor Philip Hammond said the deal was not just about the economy, but would deliver "political benefits" too.

The government's Brexit deal faces a potentially difficult vote in the House of Commons on 11 December.

Before that vote the prime minister is touring the country to promote the deal and will be in Scotland later on Wednesday.

The Treasury estimates do not put a cash figure on the potential impact on the economy, but independent experts have said that 3.9% of GDP would equate to about £100bn a year by the 2030s.

The 83-page document does not attempt precisely to forecast the impact of Mrs May's deal.

But it compares the likely impact of the proposals agreed by the Cabinet at Chequers in July and set out in the government's White Paper with the alternative scenarios of Norway-style membership of the European Economic Area, a Canada-style free trade agreement with the EU and a no-deal Brexit.

The economy will expand under all the scenarios.

However, the report found that after 15 years, under all Brexit scenarios, the economy would still be smaller than if the UK had remained in the European Union.

Former Brexit Secretary David Davis questioned the research, saying previous Treasury forecasts had been proved wrong and were based on "flawed assumptions".

Analysis

By BBC business editor Simon Jack

It's official: Brexit will make us poorer than we would be staying in the European Union.

That is the conclusion of a cross-departmental government 15-year forecast.

How much poorer depends on which Brexit route the UK takes, but the most likely outcomes would mean a hit to the economy of £60bn and £100bn with a no-deal scenario costing nearly £200bn.

The 82-page report looks at four main scenarios.

They are: the government's preferred outcome with frictionless trade; a standard free trade agreement, which means some friction at the border; a Norway-type arrangement, which would mean freedom of movement and ongoing rule taking; and finally, no deal.

Mr Hammond said the planned Brexit deal combined most of the economic benefits of remaining in the EU with the political benefits of leaving the EU.

Asked if the UK would be poorer under Mrs May's deal, the chancellor said: "The economy will be slightly smaller in the prime minister's preferred version of the future partnership."

But he argued that staying in the EU was not politically "viable".

Veteran Conservative Eurosceptic Sir Bill Cash said Mr Hammond was effectively arguing for the UK to stay in the European Union in his "extraordinary" statement.

He said the chancellor had ignored potential economic benefits of leaving the EU, asking: "What about the trade deals which could give us the most enormous opportunities throughout the world, if we are able to strike them?"

Under Mrs May's deal, the UK would be able to negotiate trade deals during the transition period after 29 March's Brexit day, but would not be able to implement them until the end of the planned 21 month transition period, which could itself be extended.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46366162

 

[Markhor]

[MENTION=44089]Eagle_Eye[/MENTION]

Let's clear something up about those much maligned pre-referendum Treasury forecasts. The Brexiteers dismissed it as Project Fear, and it's true they were too negative on certain aspects. They were too negative on output, inflation and unemployment.

However they got their forecast on sterling, real wages and the extra borrowing of £26bn due to hit to GDP right. So the reality is more mixed than Brexiteers make out.

 

[IMMY69]

[MENTION=44089]Eagle_Eye[/MENTION]

Let's clear something up about those much maligned pre-referendum Treasury forecasts. The Brexiteers dismissed it as Project Fear, and it's true they were too negative on certain aspects. They were too negative on output, inflation and unemployment.

However they got their forecast on sterling, real wages and the extra borrowing of £26bn due to hit to GDP right. So the reality is more mixed than Brexiteers make out.

I really don’t get this stuff about remainers and project fear.
If anything it was the leave campaign that used project fear. Fear of asylum seakers, fear of an EU army and fear if Turkey joining the EU...

Unfortunately there were and still are too many bafoons that fail to see how exiting will impact the country.

Dark days ahead

 

[shortbread]

I really don’t get this stuff about remainers and project fear.
If anything it was the leave campaign that used project fear. Fear of asylum seakers, fear of an EU army and fear if Turkey joining the EU...

Unfortunately there were and still are too many bafoons that fail to see how exiting will impact the country.

Dark days ahead

A stagnant economy and dwindling jobs market could mean more and more British seek employment abroad! Imagine a scenario if other nations start tightening visa rules on British job seekers....that would be some irony?

 

[Markhor]

When you look at the practicalities - no responsible leader overseeing the welfare of this country should countenance no deal !

1) Supply chains - 30% of our food comes from the EU so any disruption to supply chains means higher food prices and potential shortages from the long queues of lorries waiting to clear customs at Dover. We don't have facilities to store food safely while it is waiting to be checked nor the infrastructure to conduct all these border checks. There will also be disruption to supplies of medicines especially those with short half lives or needing refrigeration.

2) Tariffs - 10% WTO tariffs on cars and car parts would particularly hit our auto industry, whilst agricultural tariffs are even higher, rising to 35% for dairy products. We could lower our import tariffs to zero for the EU but under MFN rules you can't discriminate. We'd need to do that for ALL countries without them reciprocating for our exports.

3) Non-tariff barriers will be more disruptive. WTO rules on NTBs are not recognised universally. They do not prevent the EU requiring certification for many goods and services from outside the EU. With no deal we become the only major country trading with the EU on WTO rules without any bilateral arrangements. Why ? As WTO rules are NOT extensive enough nor as efficient. Disputes take on average two years to resolve whereas the ECJ court is quicker and Britain wins more cases than we lose.

No deal will hurt us far more than the EU. EU trade with Britain is 8%, whereas 44% of British trade is with the EU. They can replace British suppliers with those from other EU states. Some Tories have an imperialist delusion that FTAs with Commonwealth countries will in the long-term compensate for lack of frictionless trade with Europe - studies have shown the opposite. You naturally trade more with your neighbours !

Through the EU we ALREADY have access to 3rd party trade deals. Crashing out without a deal means we lose 3rd party deals overnight and those FTAs, outside the negotiating bloc of 400 million people, will take years to complete with much less leverage.

 

[shortbread]

Anyone reckon we'll see £1=$1 ?!