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Countdown to US attack on Iran

LordJames

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Based on the last few Trump posts, it is almost certain that US will attack Iran, agree with the analysis of Trita Parsi

Something happened yesterday, and Trump is now determined to take the country to a war of choice. He can change his mind at the last minute, as he did in 2019, but short of that, there will be war.

It is important to understand that capitulation is most likely not an option for Iran for a variety of reasons.

First, Trump's conduct in the past ten days has destroyed any confidence Tehran has in him and his desire for a peaceful outcome. For the Iranians to ever back down from their long-standing position to never give up enrichment, they must have confidence that backing down ends the conflict. They have no such confidence in Trump at this moment. They don't think he will stop there.

Second, Tehran has lost confidence in Trump's ability or willingness to say no to Israel (that confidence existed earlier to some extent). And Israel will not be content with even a complete dismantlement of Iran's nuclear program.

If the nuclear program is destroyed, Israel will turn to Iran's missile program. It will not accept Iran having missiles that can wreak havoc on Israel - as Iran has done in the last few days. Without missiles, an air force, and a nuclear deterrent, Iran will be completely exposed and defenseless. Once that is achieved, the Israelis will push for regime change or regime collapse. And after that, as the Israelis have done in Syria after Assad fell, they will push to destroy the rest of Iran's conventional military so that Iran won't be able to challenge Israel's emerging regional military hegemony for decades to come. Iran's territorial integrity will also be put at risk.

As a result, Tehran does not view capitulation - even if they desired it, which I don't think they do - as a stable outcome.

In their view, their only chance is to fight back. By making the war as costly as possible for the US - even if they will lose it - they think they can either deter Trump, or make him cut the war short. As he did in Yemen.

Thus, if new talks take place and Trump insists on capitulation, he will get war. Iran will pay an immeasurable price. As will the region. But the US will also pay a very heavy price. Scores of American soldiers may be killed. Oil prices will skyrocket, and gas prices in hot summer months in the US will soar. Inflation will go up. Trump's Iran war may destroy his presidency as Bush's Iraq invasion destroyed his.

Iran will lose. But so will the US. Israel is perhaps the only country that will benefit from this war of choice.
 
The visit of "Field Marshall" Asim Munir and protocol given to him now also makes a lot of sense.
 
I told you @Rana

Are you still gonna give pumps to Iran to go all the way in this war?

There is no version of this in which Iran comes out on top:
 
I told you @Rana

Are you still gonna give pumps to Iran to go all the way in this war?

There is no version of this in which Iran comes out on top:

Depends on your "definition" of on top.

As I have said before, Iran is country under sanctions for decades so it is unrealistic to view Iran as a peer to US. However, the world will have to pay for the Israeli madness.

It is also unrealistic for a country with decades of sanctions to have a layered air-defense system against a modern air force (e.g. Israel) and the aerial supremacy is to be expected.

But the ramifications of US jumping into a war in the middle east will be massive, may not be immediate but we will see.

When the US invaded Afghanistan, they were able to bomb and conquer parts of Afghanistan fairly quickly and then the music started which led to withdrawal years later with massive financial and human costs.

Same in Vietnam, US won every battle but still lost the Vietnam war.

If you want to predict the future, learn the definition of "on top" and it won't be US (in the long run).
 

Trump considers strike on Iran ahead of crucial Situation Room meeting​



President Trump will meet with his national security team in the White House Situation Room at 1pm on Tuesday to make decisions about U.S. policy towards the war between Israel and Iran, three U.S. officials tell Axios.

Why it matters: The U.S. officials said Trump is seriously considering joining the war and launching a U.S. strike against Iran's nuclear facilities, especially its underground uranium enrichment facility in Fordow.



Driving the news: Trump returned early from the G7 summit to focus on Iran, telling reporters on Air Force One overnight that he wasn't interested in a "ceasefire" but a "real end" to the war and to Iran's nuclear program.

  • The White House has discussed the idea of meeting directly with the Iranians this week, but Trump said that would "depend what happens when I get back" to Washington.
  • Two Israeli officials told Axios that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Israeli defense establishment continue to believe the Trump is likely to enter the war in the coming days to bomb Iran's underground enrichment facility.
  • So far the U.S. has helped Israel defend itself from incoming missiles, but declined to take part in offensive operations.
What they're saying: Amid growing signs that the U.S. could strike Iran, Vice President J.D. Vance pushed back against criticism from prominent MAGA voices about Trump getting involved in the war.

  • "The president has shown remarkable restraint in keeping our military's focus on protecting our troops and protecting our citizens," Vance wrote in a lengthy X post stressing Trump's consistency on the Iran nuclear issue.
  • "He may decide he needs to take further action to end Iranian enrichment."

Trump himself signaled his thinking in a series of belligerent posts on Truth Social ahead of the Situation Room meeting.

  • "We now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran. Iran had good sky trackers and other defensive equipment, and plenty of it, but it doesn't compare to American made," Trump wrote.
  • A few minutes later he warned Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei against targeting U.S. forces in the Middle East. "We know exactly where the so-called 'Supreme Leader' is hiding. He is an easy target, but is safe there - We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now. But we don't want missiles shot at civilians, or American soldiers. Our patience is wearing thin," Trump wrote.
  • In a third post in less than an hour Trump wrote: "UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER"
 
Depends on your "definition" of on top.

As I have said before, Iran is country under sanctions for decades so it is unrealistic to view Iran as a peer to US. However, the world will have to pay for the Israeli madness.

It is also unrealistic for a country with decades of sanctions to have a layered air-defense system against a modern air force (e.g. Israel) and the aerial supremacy is to be expected.

But the ramifications of US jumping into a war in the middle east will be massive, may not be immediate but we will see.

When the US invaded Afghanistan, they were able to bomb and conquer parts of Afghanistan fairly quickly and then the music started which led to withdrawal years later with massive financial and human costs.

Same in Vietnam, US won every battle but still lost the Vietnam war.

If you want to predict the future, learn the definition of "on top" and it won't be US (in the long run).
There won’t be any real consequences beyond short term economic ripples. This isn’t about winning a war, it’s about sending a long term message, total regional dominance. The goal is to make sure no one dares to challenge them for decades.
 
what a weird thread….

Countdown to US striking a country? What’s their to celebrate here for you @Bhaijaan ?

You are hurt because Iran held its own and pretty much battered the…. Out of Israel? Because you thought Jordan was going to intercept all the missiles?

This is your sadistic pleasure bhaijaan?
 
what a weird thread….

Countdown to US striking a country? What’s their to celebrate here for you @Bhaijaan ?

You are hurt because Iran held its own and pretty much battered the…. Out of Israel? Because you thought Jordan was going to intercept all the missiles?

This is your sadistic pleasure bhaijaan?

Maybe we should start a countdown for destruction of India too... Have a look at what the very important war monger Senator Lindsey Graham said today and in the last few days

"China and India purchase 70% of cheap Russian oil that keeps Putin’s war machine running. It is long past time that they both pay a price."

"To China and India: if you continue to prop up Putin’s war machine, you’ll have nobody to blame but yourself."
 
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