Post-census activities at the dilapidated offices of the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) in Karachi have gone cold since the completion of the census ‘enumeration-phase’ in May this year.
Even the guard manning the barrier near the building in Sindhi Muslim Society does not seem to care anymore, as the centre financed by the UNFPA for post-census data-processing of Sindh and Balochistan has been shifted to Islamabad.
Meanwhile, the ‘Statistics House’ in the capital is a different story.
Even the basement meant for parking has been converted into a makeshift area for data-entry operations, pushing the motorbikes and vehicles belonging to employees of Grade-18 and below onto the road.
But this is a huge basement where, besides the data-entry activities, the census forms returned from 32 million-plus households in the country have been dumped.
Recently, an electrical fire in one of the upper-floor offices sent shivers through the employees as none of the sprinklers or other pieces of fire-fighting equipment worked.
Luckily it was doused before it could get out of control.
“But the basement is devoid of any fire-fighting apparatus, and a fire there would have torched the whole place in minutes”, quipped one of the employees present that day.
Unfortunately, a spark of another kind of conflagration may have been lit when PBS announced the provisional results of the Sixth Housing and Population Census on Aug 28.
The total population of the country has been counted at 207,774,520 living in 32,205,111 households.
According to PBS, the total population has increased by 63 per cent over the last 19 years, an annual growth rate of 2.4pc, while the nationwide average household size is still hovering around 6.45 persons.
These trends portend disaster for the nation, and need to be addressed on a war footing if we are to avoid being overwhelmed by illiteracy, poverty and disease.
By wasting nine precious years to conduct the sixth decennial census that was due in 2008, the nation may have missed the early warnings of impending disaster.
Intercensal growth rate is important to determine how great a burden would continue to be imposed by the people’s need for infrastructure including schools, hospitals, housing, roads, and demand for food, water, electricity and jobs.
However, while rapid population growth of a country can be seen as a threat by its neighbours, under-enumeration within provinces or districts can stoke feelings of exploitation and disaffection.
While the earlier attempt at enumeration in March 2011 was aborted, ostensibly after ‘statistical anomalies’ were detected during House Listing Operation (HLO), the initial phase of a housing census, the present exercise seems no less flawed, especially where a city like Karachi is concerned.
Population changes between HLO 2011 and Census 2017.
The provisional census results released thus far appear to be marred by major anomalies and statistical errors, and the final results are certain to further polarise the country.
“Some of the inconsistencies in provincial and district results are impossible to explain,” comments a former provincial chief of population census organisation.
“These results will further exacerbate the North-South divide in the country. The issue demands a serious and urgent response from the authorities.”
While both government and opposition parties in Sindh have come out guns blazing, the provisional census results have actually promoted feelings of mistrust between them.
“The rest of the Sindh has gained in numbers at the expense of Karachi and Hyderabad. Why is the PPP crying crocodile tears? While it makes noises back home, the Sindh chief minister signs everything [pertaining to the census-gathering, data-processing procedures and even the provisional results] in Islamabad,” fumes a political activist in Karachi.
Meanwhile some experts in other provinces too have started raising muted voices of dissent, although for other reasons.
Emotions notwithstanding, it is a worthwhile exercise to take a cold, hard look at the announced provisional results.
According to the figures, 75,584,989 people live in 12,192,314 households in the country’s urban areas.
This translates into an average household size of 6.19 persons.
Let us start by examining the released figures for Karachi and Lahore as parallel datasets are readily available for them.
These will also serve to demonstrate the anomalies and errors in the current exercise.
https://www.dawn.com/news/1358516/census-2017-the-story-behind-the-anomalous-numbers
Apparently some glaringly apparent fudging has been done to reduce Karachi's population.
Is this just a simple power and money grab by those who are in a position to do so, or is there more to this in terms of systemic discrimination against Karachi?
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