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Decline of the US empire, rise of the Chinese one?

It would be true but Xi came to US to meet Biden and American businesses not the other way around.
 
Just bear one thing in mind the day petro dollar gets replaced by petro Yuan universally. That day will be the last day of US hegemony and would mark the start of China's global supremacy.
 
Just bear one thing in mind the day petro dollar gets replaced by petro Yuan universally. That day will be the last day of US hegemony and would mark the start of China's global supremacy.
That’s not how it works.. Petro Dollar is a thing yes but American economy is transparent to invest in, every country’s excess money goes i to US bonds, no other country has the capability to be that transparent.. stop having one dimensional thought process , everything is a combination of things.

China has to prove that its transparent from its government to invest in, it’s so far not because it prefers only manufacturing.
 
That’s not how it works.. Petro Dollar is a thing yes but American economy is transparent to invest in, every country’s excess money goes i to US bonds, no other country has the capability to be that transparent.. stop having one dimensional thought process , everything is a combination of things.

China has to prove that its transparent from its government to invest in, it’s so far not because it prefers only manufacturing.
Brother you may call it one dimensional. But you should know the US fed prints money from thin air. The US does not have any actual assets to back their currency. They only rely on great demand of oil and its trade in petrodollar. That's why I said the day petro dollar ends, no one is going to invest in their treasury bonds.
 
Just bear one thing in mind the day petro dollar gets replaced by petro Yuan universally. That day will be the last day of US hegemony and would mark the start of China's global supremacy.
So be it, if and when that comes an investor will pull out of the US and put their money where the returns are, don't care if it's Rwanda as long as there's returns and ease of doing business. I need my assets to return at least 20% annually, not greedy and definitely no emotions attached.
 
Just bear one thing in mind the day petro dollar gets replaced by petro Yuan universally. That day will be the last day of US hegemony and would mark the start of China's global supremacy.
That day is not going to be anywhere in the near future.

Chinese economy is struggling and their belt and road project has been a major flop. At this point China cannot even go back on all the infrastructure projects it has undertaken in other countries.

No country will full trust Chinese yuan. It is highly manipulated and there is no transparency in its value. You have to accept what ccp tells the world. I doubt even BRICS nations will use digital Yuan.

Basically China has given brainless loans to struggling third world countries and they are not going to get that money back. No matter how much China restructures the debt, countries like Pakistan, South Africa. Srilanka etc are not paying back any of that money.

China will remain this way for the foreseeable future. They have another major problem coming in the near future. Their aging population and not enough people being born to take care of the old and feeble and their retirement costs.
 
That’s not how it works.. Petro Dollar is a thing yes but American economy is transparent to invest in, every country’s excess money goes i to US bonds, no other country has the capability to be that transparent.. stop having one dimensional thought process , everything is a combination of things.

China has to prove that its transparent from its government to invest in, it’s so far not because it prefers only manufacturing.
China is like that shady guy who pretends to be rich but never reveals the truth about his wealth.
 
Brother you may call it one dimensional. But you should know the US fed prints money from thin air. The US does not have any actual assets to back their currency. They only rely on great demand of oil and its trade in petrodollar. That's why I said the day petro dollar ends, no one is going to invest in their treasury bonds.
That’s is not true, it’s on the basis on productivity per capita as well, almost every tech you use software or hardward is designed with some US company..
Your logic was somewhat closer in 2008 when US didnt have apple phones, Android, Open AI, Tesla, Amazon, Meta if anything America has gotten into everyone’s house pockets more so than in 2008 when it depended upon oil.
 
That day is not going to be anywhere in the near future.

Chinese economy is struggling and their belt and road project has been a major flop. At this point China cannot even go back on all the infrastructure projects it has undertaken in other countries.

No country will full trust Chinese yuan. It is highly manipulated and there is no transparency in its value. You have to accept what ccp tells the world. I doubt even BRICS nations will use digital Yuan.

Basically China has given brainless loans to struggling third world countries and they are not going to get that money back. No matter how much China restructures the debt, countries like Pakistan, South Africa. Srilanka etc are not paying back any of that money.

China will remain this way for the foreseeable future. They have another major problem coming in the near future. Their aging population and not enough people being born to take care of the old and feeble and their retirement costs.
Well don't consider China to be that naive they are earning exponentially on all these debts by getting strategic assets of the loaned countries on lease for 40 and in some cases 99 years. And on child policy they have already abolished the one child policy. Chinese are so cunning ppl and the problem with US is its extravagant debt spending to fund its economy and that is why such a model is never sustainable. Also the new xi - putin nexus is disastrous for US dollar hegemony as they are hell bent to ditch dollar through trade in local currencies.
 
Also the new xi - putin nexus is disastrous for US dollar hegemony as they are hell bent to ditch dollar through trade in local currencies.
To break this China needs more allies among the top 10 economies in the world and this is where they're failing. Russia is simply a $2 trillion economy, small fish. Nearly 70% of the global economy is made up of the top 10 alone. What China desperately needs to break the western hegemony are better quality allies.
 
To break this China needs more allies among the top 10 economies in the world and this is where they're failing. Russia is simply a $2 trillion economy, small fish. Nearly 70% of the global economy is made up of the top 10 alone. What China desperately needs to break the western hegemony are better quality allies.
Yep China do need more allies but western alliance isn't that strong too owing to their emerging differences.
 
US Navy officer jailed for passing military blueprints, plans to China

A US Navy officer who admitted to providing sensitive military information to China has been jailed for more than two years.

Wenheng Zhao, 26, pleaded guilty in October to passing on information to Chinese intelligence for bribes.

Mr Zhao was a petty officer working at a California naval base.

He passed on information about military exercises, operational orders and critical infrastructure from 2021 to 2023, US officials said.

Specifically, he provided information about the US Navy's large-scale drills in the Indo-Pacific region, as well as electrical diagrams and blueprints for a radar system located at the US base on the Japanese island of Okinawa.

The US Navy's base there in Okinawa is critical to its operations in Asia. The US has made what it calls the "Indo-Pacific" region a key security priority, and in recent years has worked on shoring up alliances there to counter China's ramped-up military presence.

In the past few years it has expanded the naval drills it operates with allies in the region. However, US authorities gave no indication that information about other countries' naval drills was compromised.

aZhao, who had security clearance and worked at Naval Base Ventura County in Port Hueneme, had specifically entered restricted military and naval installations "to collect and record" information, the US Justice Department said.

He also used "sophisticated encrypted communication methods" to pass on the information, destroyed evidence and concealed his relationship with a Chinese spy.

He was paid at least 14 separate bribes between August 2021- May 2023, to a total of at least $14,866 (£11,650).

Zhao is a naturalised US citizen who was born in China. He immigrated to the US in 2009, became a citizen in 2012 and enlisted in the navy five years later.

He was arrested last August in California and pleaded guilty to the spying charges in October.

On Monday a Californian district court sentenced him to 27 months in jail. He had faced a maximum 20 year sentence.

There were no reports of any of his comments. Authorities have also not provided information as to the motivation for his betrayal, beyond financial reasons.

In October, following Zhao's guilty plea, US Justice Department Assistant Attorney General Matthew Olsen said China's intelligence services "actively target clearance holders across the military, seeking to entice them with money to provide sensitive government information."

On Monday he reiterated the warning.

"Mr Zhao betrayed his solemn oath to defend his country and endangered those who serve in the US military," he said.

Mr Olsen added that US authorities were committed to combatting Chinese government efforts to "undermine our nation's security".

Another US Navy member was also arrested last year, around the same time as Zhao, and charged with spying offences. Jinchao Wei, 22, a naturalised US citizen, is accused of conspiring to send national defence information to a Chinese agent.

Wei had served on the amphibious assault ship the USS Essex and was accused of handing over dozens of documents, photos and videos detailing the operation of ships and their systems to China.

It is unclear if the same Chinese agent is alleged to have contacted both men.

China's embassy in Washington on Monday said it was not aware of the details of Zhao's case. It accused the US government and media of hyping up espionage cases, many of which it said were based on unfounded allegations.

 
FBI director warns that Chinese hackers are preparing to ‘wreak havoc’ on US critical infrastructure

FBI Director Christopher Wray on Wednesday warned that Chinese hackers are preparing to “wreak havoc and cause real-world harm” to the US.

“China’s hackers are positioning on American infrastructure in preparation to wreak havoc and cause real-world harm to American citizens and communities, if or when China decides the time has come to strike,” Wray told the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party.

Though cyber officials have long sounded the alarm about China’s offensive cyber capabilities, Wray’s dramatic public warning underlines the huge level of concern at the top of the US government about the threat Chinese hackers pose to critical infrastructure nationwide. The head of the National Security Agency and other senior US officials also testified on Chinese cyber activity in front of the panel Wednesday.


 
Western attempts to badmouth Chinese economy an outdated political tactic to deflect internal conflicts

China's prominent position in industrial manufacturing has attracted worldwide attention, particularly its great success in providing high-quality and low-priced goods to consumers around the world. China is currently the largest manufacturing country in the world and its industry continues to expand, helping most developing countries - and also others - to resist and withstand the impact of the economic growth slowdown caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The development of manufacturing and other productive areas has improved China's image at home and abroad. However, it has also attracted some harsh and unreasonable old-fashioned criticism from the US and its followers. Hitting China seems to have become a political tradition in Western countries' relations and dealings with the Eastern country, and from time to time the same old story is repeated. Western countries usually use tricks to fabricate and distort facts out of thin air to attack and vilify China's image, leaving out its positive contributions.

US President Joe Biden and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen have used the terms "ticking time bomb" and "a risk factor for the US economy," respectively, to comment on the Chinese economy. According to them, the Chinese government led by President Xi Jinping has failed to bring prosperity to the country of 1.4 billion people, while its economic strategy to date has been largely speculative rather than based on realistic projections. After China announced the 5 percent GDP growth target for 2024, Western media outlets have rushed to claim that there is "little cause for optimism" that China can achieve its goal.

The US is well aware of China's efforts to address urban and rural unemployment, food production and industrial development to successfully eliminate poverty. Despite this and the fact that the Chinese government's efforts have enabled the country's economy to continue growing, making it a better China day by day, verbal attacks keep coming.

The implication of US politicians' rhetoric is that China's manufacturing industry's collapse would negatively impact global production and consumption. This would affect the economic and social development of most countries, including the US and Western countries. Politicians have reminded citizens of the dangers experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic, when industrial production in China slowed down, disrupting global supply chains, driving up inflation and reducing incomes.

However, statistics show that China's manufacturing industry accounts for over 28 percent of the world total, while the US is at about 16 percent, even at COVID-19 parity. According to data from China's National Bureau of Statistics, China's GDP posted a growth of 5.2 percent year on year in 2023, higher than the annual target of around 5 percent, which fully demonstrates the country's achievements in economic governance in the face of huge global uncertainty. Moreover, the Chinese government prioritizes being people-centric, focusing on high-quality development, pursuing low-carbon development, innovation and sustainability, and continuously improving the rural environment and people's living standards. It also has continuously improved risk management and control capacity to be prepared for unexpected challenges.

In both the short and long term, the Chinese economy is expected to maintain its growth momentum. The IMF stated in its latest World Economic Outlook Report that global economic growth is likely to see a further upward trend in 2024. Key factors include the acceleration of China's economic recovery. Major economists believe that China will be the largest contributor to global economic growth this year.

It is clear that some Western politicians, vying for positions of power, distort facts and vilify the Chinese economy because they view China as an "alien" that does not conform to the West's path of political and economic development. This creates a simplistic narrative of "good guys" versus "bad guys."

Despite this propaganda from the West, the Chinese government under the leadership of President Xi Jinping has led the country's economy to overcome challenges like the COVID-19 outbreak, displaying the Chinese economy's strong resilience and maintaining China's status as a leading manufacturing country. Western attempts to tarnish China's image are misleading and using international issues to deflect internal conflicts is an outdated political tactic in today's world.

 
Somehow missed this thread on one of favourite topics. Pity a high quality discussion over the first 30odd posts was derailed by the usual jingoism.

I'll make a couple of points. The decision on China Vs. US and who will dominate this century is still very much in the balance but the last couple of years have tilted the balance towards the US & allies. 2-3 factors have made the difference

- China taking the COVID restriction stubbornly too far and the consequent kickstarting the China+1 strategy plus the economic impact ruining a major growth engine - the Chinese real estate industry
- Trump's import restrictions and Biden's continued pressure on restricting advanced technologies
- India joining the US camp both economically and militarily

Manufacturing-wise, China is still the 800 pound Gorilla in the room (I'm aware that the terms new Axis & new Allies are pejorative. They're not mine but the author's).

https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4334a30a-c968-41cc-a819-38236706b47a_797x574.jpeg

However, the trajectory isn't great. Productivity growth has slowed down

https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7469bbd1-522d-42ae-afe3-87769a409e3c_1135x696.jpeg

Keep in mind that although China has grown mightily in percentage terms, in absolute terms its gap in living standards relative to the U.S. is actually larger than it was in 1990 and the rate of growth now is slowing down which means it may never catch up and China risks being stuck as a powerful middle income country.

https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F401866b1-b7cd-4b91-8030-b68a0bca96ef_1020x732.jpeg


I'll stop now because this could be an endless post and will respond if people are willing to engage.
 
I'll stop now because this could be an endless post and will respond if people are willing to engage.
Looks great .can u pls elaborate with few more graphics, if anything related to cpec investments and roll backs by respective countries too.As there is a constant fear among all the new axis and its allies, how much quickly can China cover its losses in its technical advancements will be interesting. Even chinese products are banned from sensitive areas. China also wants to remove us software's and hardware in its govt sector and imp areas(by 27).
 
Looks great .can u pls elaborate with few more graphics, if anything related to cpec investments and roll backs by respective countries too.As there is a constant fear among all the new axis and its allies, how much quickly can China cover its losses in its technical advancements will be interesting. Even chinese products are banned from sensitive areas. China also wants to remove us software's and hardware in its govt sector and imp areas(by 27).
I'll try and get to it later tonight. It's not a simple answer though. Belt & Road (or CPEC as it's known in Pakistan) is not just successful or a failure. It's a very mixed bag with some of both and probably needs a major re-evaluation.

On the second point, that's still a very open question. There can only be forecasts since the entire technology restrictions are still very recent and only in some areas.
 
Somehow missed this thread on one of favourite topics. Pity a high quality discussion over the first 30odd posts was derailed by the usual jingoism.

I'll make a couple of points. The decision on China Vs. US and who will dominate this century is still very much in the balance but the last couple of years have tilted the balance towards the US & allies. 2-3 factors have made the difference

- China taking the COVID restriction stubbornly too far and the consequent kickstarting the China+1 strategy plus the economic impact ruining a major growth engine - the Chinese real estate industry
- Trump's import restrictions and Biden's continued pressure on restricting advanced technologies
- India joining the US camp both economically and militarily

Manufacturing-wise, China is still the 800 pound Gorilla in the room (I'm aware that the terms new Axis & new Allies are pejorative. They're not mine but the author's).

https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4334a30a-c968-41cc-a819-38236706b47a_797x574.jpeg

However, the trajectory isn't great. Productivity growth has slowed down

https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7469bbd1-522d-42ae-afe3-87769a409e3c_1135x696.jpeg

Keep in mind that although China has grown mightily in percentage terms, in absolute terms its gap in living standards relative to the U.S. is actually larger than it was in 1990 and the rate of growth now is slowing down which means it may never catch up and China risks being stuck as a powerful middle income country.

https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F401866b1-b7cd-4b91-8030-b68a0bca96ef_1020x732.jpeg


I'll stop now because this could be an endless post and will respond if people are willing to engage.
China will still do really well being a powerful middle income nation due to sheer amount of high IQ citizens.

From what I have noticed and what people at chip companies have told me is that they are great engineers but they cannot imagine the whole picture while designing a product.
It doesn’t help that their government cracks down on tech.
 
Looks great .can u pls elaborate with few more graphics, if anything related to cpec investments and roll backs by respective countries too.As there is a constant fear among all the new axis and its allies, how much quickly can China cover its losses in its technical advancements will be interesting. Even chinese products are banned from sensitive areas. China also wants to remove us software's and hardware in its govt sector and imp areas(by 27).
In truth, I'm not sure what can be said about the impact of the recent Technological Cold War that's happening between the New Axis and New Allies. It's still too early to assess impact since the official war is only about a few years old. There's been a lot of articles, academic papers, blog posts etc. but all of them to my mind speculative. One my closest friends (naturalised US citizen) who went into academics is on the US government advisory panel for the CHIPS act. How new it is will be obvious from the fact that he completed the 3 months security check and took oath of office in early February.

Let's wait and see impact but there is no doubt that this is going to be one of the fundamental moving forces of our era. There'll be some big splashy news but a lot of stuff will happen behind the scenes. You'll suddenly hear that the Rwandan government fell and there'll be articles in the mainstream news about warlords etc. but those in the know will be aware that there was a discovery of reserves of some obscure material with an unpronounceable name vital for a certain class of semiconductors and China funded the ousting of the US leaning government there.

The conflict I think was inevitable but because of Xi Jinping, China has chosen to enter into it quicker that it should have. You asked for a couple of charts. Here they are

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Too soon I think. There's still so much more to invest in China as you'll see from my chart above showing where US and China GDP per capita stand. China has still so much more to grow.

1710498368432.png
The US is rushing to decouple itself from China and what a lot of Academics are calling 'Altasia' is trying to take it's place.

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@Red-Indian Till now Chinese were able to reverse engineer the latest technologies and incorporate in their companies.But just like cold war days,soviet were very good with old technologies but went out of sync with new innovations as there was no help on lastest ones.I think something like that will plague Chinese in down the lane.The more the sensitivity area more the problem.As u said every one will fight for every inch and it will be dirty. Now it will be pro vs anti chinese/us on every issue.In a sense all govts has to behave as Extreme Right for opponents and left for same axis.
 
@Red-Indian Till now Chinese were able to reverse engineer the latest technologies and incorporate in their companies.But just like cold war days,soviet were very good with old technologies but went out of sync with new innovations as there was no help on lastest ones.I think something like that will plague Chinese in down the lane.The more the sensitivity area more the problem.As u said every one will fight for every inch and it will be dirty. Now it will be pro vs anti chinese/us on every issue.In a sense all govts has to behave as Extreme Right for opponents and left for same axis.
Agreed. The western has finally decided to take the anti-China efforts seriously. Post cold-war, there was a period of anti-Islam which sort of gave space to China to grow (mostly legitimately...occasionally as you state, illegitimately) without serious opposition. Now slowing down China's rise and influence is the main theme of a lot of foreign and industrial policy.

As I said, probably inevitable in the long run but likely came too soon for China to complete it's ascension into a developed, upper income country.
 
As I said, probably inevitable in the long run but likely came too soon for China to complete it's ascension into a developed, upper income country.
Yeah once everyone is fixated to slow down the Chinese progress,it's a multi faceted problem for them.Somewhere I read ,apart from.them there is no developed and super rich country in their block.So it has to be the bread winner for all of them against the odds.
 
If America's economy begins to deteriorate, people in Ningbo will be among the first to know. The eastern Chinese port, home to 9.6m residents, contains a sprawling industrial district. Its goods are prepared for export, and are shipped abroad via a deepwater harbour, which is one of the world’s busiest. The coast of Zhejiang province is dotted with similar entrepôts, where thousands of mostly family-owned firms have built up a diverse manufacturing base over the past 40 years. They make everything from textiles and car parts to electronics and machine components.

Ningbo is also a city of political importance. Although private industry, rather than state-backed enterprise, has thrived in the region, it has nevertheless been held up as a model of “common prosperity”—Xi Jinping’s way of dealing with wealth inequality. And amid a gloomy overall outlook, with much of the country mired in a property crisis and suffering from weak consumer demand, surprisingly strong exports and fading fears of a recession in America have combined to make Ningbo one of China’s most optimistic cities.

Official data released on March 7th showed that China’s exports surged by 7.1% year on year in the first two months of 2024. This is especially impressive given that some analysts had expected growth of less than 1%. Even exports to America climbed 5% year on year, after having tumbled by nearly 7% in December. The figures were sufficiently encouraging that policymakers at China’s annual congress in Beijing disclosed a version of them a day ahead of the expected release date.

Little surprise, then, that the atmosphere in Ningbo is more cheerful than in other Chinese cities. Part of this, locals say, can be attributed to its relatively easy covid-19 years. In 2022 many large Chinese cities were locked down for months on end. Ningbo, perhaps by dint of luck, avoided a full-city lockdown and closed few factories. When Shanghai was shut down in April and May that year, halting lorries bound for its port, some traffic was rerouted to Ningbo’s busy harbour.

The good cheer has limits, though, which suggests that cities such as Ningbo may not drive China’s recovery. A downturn in foreign demand would be devastating for the region. Local factories experienced a brief taste of this as China reopened in early 2023. Empty containers began stacking up in Ningbo’s port, indicating a lack of overseas purchases. An official who visited the city last March says he anticipated a disaster for the city and other export hubs. Fortunately, part of the phenomenon was explained by excess shipping containers returning to China for the first time since the start of the pandemic. The drop in demand was a blip.

Ningbonese factory bosses have other concerns. The family-controlled nature of their firms makes financing from banks more difficult to secure. As larger manufacturers in southern cities such as Shenzhen enjoy government support for technology upgrades—involving robotics and the internet of things—local companies are finding it tough to keep pace.

And although the most recent export data beat expectations across the board, things improved from a very low base. Analysts at hsbc, a bank, expect trade uncertainty to persist. Meanwhile, demand is shifting: that from poorer markets, such as Africa and South America, is surging, according to the most recent data; that from America remains strong; but that from Australia, the eu and Japan is falling.

How well will Ningbo adapt? Many manufacturers got their start supplying foreign brands. More recently, they have begun selling directly to customers in the rich world through Amazon, an online marketplace, and Temu and Shein, two Chinese e-commerce sites, notes Hing Kai Chan of the University of Nottingham Ningbo China. They are unlikely to have developed similar channels in the markets now growing strongly. If rich-world demand fizzles out, Ningbo’s happy days could come to an end. Instead of developing a new path to prosperity, China’s optimistic city is riding on the coat-tails of the country’s geopolitical rivals.

 

China will be a driving force for the world economic recovery, official says​


China aims to be strong driving force for the world economic recovery this year, opening its markets wider to foreign investors and promoting high quality growth, the country's top legislator Zhao Leji said on Thursday.

China will make tech innovation a new point of economic growth and is willing to collaborate with other countries on it, Zhao, the chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, said at the opening plenary of the annual gathering of the Boao Forum for Asia.

China's import and export of goods is expected to exceed $32 trillion in the next five years, according to Zhao.

Recent economic indicators have shown the world's second-biggest economy made a bright start to the year, offering some relief to policymakers as they try to shore up growth amid weakness in the property sector and mounting local government debt.

Zhao also promised greater openness in the country's markets for foreign investors, with a further reduction of the "negative list" of sectors prohibited or restricted for investment from foreign companies without special approval.

Many foreign businesses have been looking to "de-risk" supply chains and operations away from China. Inbound foreign direct investment shrank nearly 20% in the first two months of the year, data released last week showed.

Earlier in March, Beijing announced a series of policies to prop up economic growth and a growth target of around 5% for 2024, which Zhao said conveyed confidence the country's economy continuing to rebound and improve in the long term.
China opposed trade protection and decoupling, said Zhao.

"Investing in China is investing in the future." ($1 = 7.2260 Chinese yuan renminbi)

 
“Many foreign businesses have been looking to "de-risk" supply chains and operations away from China. Inbound foreign direct investment shrank nearly 20% in the first two months of the year, data released last week showed.“


- Reason why China is finally calming down,lowest FDI since 1990s for them
 
From my limited knowledge , decoupling from China will damage Western economies much more than it will China.

The West and countries like South Korea and Japan depend much more on capital goods from China(and other BRICS) nations than the other way around.

It's also true, albeit less true, for intermediary goods.

Chasing labour arbitrage and having strict environmental policies(in EU) has left to deindustrialization in the West .

It will take time(more than a decade) and cost a lot more to reindustrialise and build that productive capacity to become less dependent on China.

It's not going to happen any time soon or you risk seeing massive inflation in the developed world.
 
“Many foreign businesses have been looking to "de-risk" supply chains and operations away from China. Inbound foreign direct investment shrank nearly 20% in the first two months of the year, data released last week showed.“


- Reason why China is finally calming down,lowest FDI since 1990s for them
This reduction in FDI is not a current year phenomenon. It's definitely been going on longer than that. Probably since the pandemic when companies were reeling from the almost total Chinese shutdown. Maybe even longer than that.

Here's evidence

https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd444749f-7fc8-49c6-ade6-981f4acc40b3_1015x744.jpeg


To be fair though, I don't think it is the investment loss that bothers the Chinese anymore. They generate plenty of Capex themselves due to their savings rate and massive current account surplus. They're more bothered about lack of access to latest technologies. Xi was especially wooing the Dutch Prime Minister since they want access to ASML lithography systems.
 
This reduction in FDI is not a current year phenomenon. It's definitely been going on longer than that. Probably since the pandemic when companies were reeling from the almost total Chinese shutdown. Maybe even longer than that.

Here's evidence

https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd444749f-7fc8-49c6-ade6-981f4acc40b3_1015x744.jpeg


To be fair though, I don't think it is the investment loss that bothers the Chinese anymore. They generate plenty of Capex themselves due to their savings rate and massive current account surplus. They're more bothered about lack of access to latest technologies. Xi was especially wooing the Dutch Prime Minister since they want access to ASML lithography systems.
US and Netherlands are very strict with that, China still has managed to bypass bans somehow with TSMC , I saw other day that Samsung has helped Huawei.

I agree on FDI, but with FDI comes political clout as well which creates a favorable view of the country.
India gets a lot of free press cause that.
 
From my limited knowledge , decoupling from China will damage Western economies much more than it will China.

The West and countries like South Korea and Japan depend much more on capital goods from China(and other BRICS) nations than the other way around.

It's also true, albeit less true, for intermediary goods.

Chasing labour arbitrage and having strict environmental policies(in EU) has left to deindustrialization in the West .

It will take time(more than a decade) and cost a lot more to reindustrialise and build that productive capacity to become less dependent on China.

It's not going to happen any time soon or you risk seeing massive inflation in the developed world.
Decoupling is reality now. Companies are wiling to bear slight higher costs to reduce Supply Chain risk. Talk to a Supply Chain or sourcing manager in any big company today and it's their number one submission. There will be some impact in the short term but governments are falling over themselves to give tax and other concessions to offset some of it.

Here's some evidence. Not perfect but you can clearly see the trend and it's sustained. In the last 7 years, China has fallen from 21% of US Imports to 15%. Now some of that is rerouting through other countries etc. but a lot of that is real.

https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3ce575d7-ba61-436a-baa7-15e5e148342f_885x644.jpeg


If you want to know where it's rerouting, see where the Greenfield investments are going. See the spike in every country except China.

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Huawei’s success a story crucial in reshaping global economic landscape

On March 29, Chinese tech giant Huawei released its annual report 2023 which showed that its overall operations met expectations, achieving global sales revenue of 704.2 billion yuan ($99.18 billion) and a net profit of 87 billion yuan ($12.25 billion).

Additionally, according to the latest statistics from market research firm Omdia, Huawei's share in the global communications equipment market (including small and large base stations) reached 31.3 percent last year, ranking first.

We particularly noted a statement in Huawei's annual report: By the end of 2023, the company's information and communications technology solutions have brought connectivity to 90 million people in remote regions in nearly 80 countries around the world.

Huawei, a Chinese company, has made impressive strides in the global telecommunications sector, serving as an excellent example of China's exceptional manufacturing capabilities. The company has demonstrated resilience, innovation and strategic market positioning despite challenges from the US and Western nations attempting to restrict its growth. This story is crucial in reshaping the global economic landscape, especially in driving growth in emerging economies.

Huawei's success demonstrates its unwavering focus on research and development, its ability to tailor solutions to meet the diverse needs of different regions, particularly developing and under-developed countries, and its achievement of cost-effectiveness without compromising quality.

It has facilitated a transformation in the global economic landscape, enabling these countries to share the fruits of globalization and embark on a fast track to development. Huawei represents Chinese companies that have contributed to the world's peaceful development.

Imagine what it will mean for the development of individuals and families and the economic development of their countries when more poor people in poor areas of the world have access to state-of-the-art communications equipment and become users of communications technologies that are no less advanced than those in developed countries.

This opens up more opportunities for them to choose development paths that align with their history, traditions and societies.

Chinese firms such as Huawei are collaborating and investing in emerging economies alongside the Belt and Road initiative, thereby enhancing the economic standing of these nations and exerting a substantial influence on global power dynamics.

It signifies a move toward a more diversified global technology and economic landscape and promotes greater autonomy among emerging economies. As these countries ascend to the worldwide stage with the advancement of new technology, they will play a more significant role in shaping the future international economic order.

This paradigm shift challenges the US and its Western allies, ultimately necessitating a reevaluation of the structural contradictions within their global strategies.

Their containment of Chinese companies with advanced technology will fail because the growth of these companies worldwide, especially in Asia, Africa and Latin America, follows the trend of global development progress and is the inevitable result of the redistribution of technological and economic power.

Asia alone, for example, has become the most dynamic and growth-potential region in the world, with 40 percent of the world's economy and contributing more than 70 percent to global economic growth. The contribution of Chinese enterprises cannot be underestimated.

Continuing to divide the world landscape and draw boundaries based on geopolitical strategies and interests is no longer compatible with the changes brought about by the ongoing development of emerging economies.

Huawei and many other Chinese firms' journey to the world remains challenging as the US and the West are still curbing their progress on various pretexts, including so-called security.

However, Huawei's emergence is also forcing more world-class manufacturers to be more proactive in the face of technological and market competition so that more emerging economies can benefit from fair competition.

Huawei's endeavor is not only a story about how Chinese companies are breaking through US containment and going global. This story is also about emerging economies.

With the push and application of new technologies like 5G, emerging economies will continue to rise, and we may witness the evolution to a more diversified, balanced and equitable new world order.

 
Decoupling is reality now. Companies are wiling to bear slight higher costs to reduce Supply Chain risk. Talk to a Supply Chain or sourcing manager in any big company today and it's their number one submission. There will be some impact in the short term but governments are falling over themselves to give tax and other concessions to offset some of it.

Here's some evidence. Not perfect but you can clearly see the trend and it's sustained. In the last 7 years, China has fallen from 21% of US Imports to 15%. Now some of that is rerouting through other countries etc. but a lot of that is real.

https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3ce575d7-ba61-436a-baa7-15e5e148342f_885x644.jpeg


If you want to know where it's rerouting, see where the Greenfield investments are going. See the spike in every country except China.

https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe24158cc-efe6-4b56-a8c1-4c1510314643_1389x894.jpeg

I saw some data that those countries have had to increase their imports of capital goods from China . So, there may not be direct dependency. I'll try and post that if I find it.
 
I saw some data that those countries have had to increase their imports of capital goods from China . So, there may not be direct dependency. I'll try and post that if I find it.
Of course, it's never so simple. You're probably referring to research from the International Institute of Finance which argues that most of the trade is being rerouted.

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While there's some truth there, couple of points in response to that.

1. Their own charts partly contradict their point. The rate of increase in the black line for those countries is higher than the blue line which means they're increasing their exports to US faster than imports from China.

2. Incomes in these countries are rising so is their internal consumption which means they're probably buying more stuff from China for their own use as well and not relabelling as Robin Brooks theorises.

You just have to ask supply chain guys to get at the real truth. Everyone's terrified of fresh tariffs in their industry. Each and every supply chain manager has 3 to 5 year targets they have to hit in terms of diversification.
 
Xi, Biden agree to advance cooperation

President Xi Jinping and United States President Joe Biden affirmed in a phone conversation on Tuesday the progress achieved so far in bilateral ties since their meeting in San Francisco in November, and agreed to strengthen communication to avoid misjudgment in order to push for the steady development of China-US relations.

The two heads of state considered their phone conversation to be “candid and constructive”, according to a news release from the Foreign Ministry after the phone talk. The phone call was their latest interaction after exchanging congratulations on the 45th anniversary of diplomatic ties between the two countries on Jan 1.

Xi said that the stabilizing trend of bilateral ties in recent months has been welcomed by both societies and the international community. On the other hand, there has been an increase in negative factors that require attention from both sides, he added.

Xi stressed that the issue of strategic perception is always fundamental to the China-US relationship, just like the first button of a shirt that must be put right.

 
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US, EU eye Chinese legacy chips in renewed semiconductor accord​


The United States and the European Union committed to extend by three years their cooperation on identifying disruptions in the semiconductor sector, with a particular emphasis on mainstream "legacy" chips from China.

The two sides concluded a two-day session of their Trade and Technology Council on Friday with a l2-page joint statement on the meeting's outcomes.

It said the two partners would share market intelligence about "non-market" policies and practices, which they argue prevail in China, and consult on planned action to address distortions on the global supply chain.

European Commission Vice President Margrethe Vestager, who oversees EU policy on technology, said the EU and U.S. were taking "the next steps" regarding legacy semiconductors.

U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo told a news conference that China was producing some 60% of legacy chips, found in cars, household appliances and medical devices, and would continue to do so in the coming years.

"And we know there's a massive subsidisation of that industry on behalf of the Chinese government which could lead to huge market distortion. And so that's why we're focused on it," she said.

The Commerce Department has already launched a survey to assess market distortion, she said, adding that the EU would do a similar exercise soon, with the two set to share their results.

The two partners have also committed to join forces in research to find alternatives to per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in chips. The "forever chemicals" do not readily break down and studies show they can harm human health.

 

US-China relationship on 'more stable footing' Yellen says​


US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Chinese Premier Li Qiang sounded cautiously confident on Sunday that ties between the world's two largest economies were improving.

Yellen met Li in Beijing on her second visit to China in less than a year.

She told the Chinese premier that the ability to have difficult conversations has put the two economic giants on "a more stable footing."

"While we have more to do, I believe that, over the past year, we have put our bilateral relationship on more stable footing," she said.

Relations between the US and China have often been strained in recent years, with issues such as technology, trade, human rights and Beijing's aggressive stance on Taiwan all bones of contention.

On Sunday. Li said China hoped for a partnership rather than an adversarial relationship between the two countries.

The premier added that "constructive progress" had been made during Yellen's visit.

'Balanced growth'

On Saturday, Yellen held a series of meetings in the export hub of Guangzhou.

The Treasury chief held hours of discussions with her counterpart, Vice Premier He Lifeng.

The two agreed to hold " intensive exchanges " on more balanced economic growth.

Yellen stressed that she intends to use the medium to advocate for a level playing field with China to protect US workers and businesses.

Talking about Yellen's Guangzhou visit, Li said on Sunday that Chinese internet users have closely followed the details of her trip since her appearance in the southern city, showing "expectation and hope for the China-US relationship to continue to improve."

Excess capacity arguments contentious

During her visit, Yellen emphasized the threat of China's overproduction of clean energy products, such as EVs and solar panels, to producers in the US and other countries.

It was not well-received by some sections of the Chinese media.

The state news agency Xinhua said that talking up "Chinese overcapacity" in the clean energy sector created a pretext for protectionist policies to shield American companies.

Suppressing China's EV-related industries will not help the US grow its own, Xinhua said as it expressed hope that more headway could be made during Yellen's visit to break down barriers impeding mutually beneficial cooperation.

A meeting between Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping in San Francisco in November has contributed to a warming of bilateral ties.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is also expected to soon visit China again in a sign that the two sides are striving to return to more settled relations.

 
China is the need of USA, besides maintaining good relations with China, the USA has no other option.
 
In China, Blinken urges fair treatment of American companies

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Thursday called on China to provide a level playing field for American businesses as he began a visit aimed at resolving a raft of contentious issues that could jeopardise the newly repaired relationship.

Blinken's trip is the latest high-level contact between the two nations that, along with working groups on issues from global trade to military communication, have tempered the public acrimony that drove relations to historic lows early last year.

But Washington and Beijing have been increasingly at odds over how American companies operate in China, Chinese exports and manufacturing capacity, and strains are also growing over Beijing's backing of Russia in its war in Ukraine.

State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said that at a meeting with China's top official in Shanghai, Chen Jining, Blinken raised concerns about China's "trade policies and non-market economic practices."

Blinken also "stressed that the United States seeks a healthy economic competition with the PRC and a level playing field for U.S. workers and firms operating in China."

The PRC, or People's Republic of China, is the country's official name.

China has dismissed as groundless criticism that its manufacturing capacity is excessive, adding that its industries, ranging from electric vehicles to solar panels, are competitive and innovative.

Chen said through translators that the recent call between the leaders of both countries had helped the "stable and healthy development of our two countries' relationship", adding: "Whether we choose cooperation or confrontation affects the well-being of both peoples, both countries, and the future of humanity."

While in Shanghai, Blinken also spoke with American and Chinese students at New York University's local campus, where he said intercultural interactions were "the best way to make sure that we start by hopefully understanding one another".

SUPPORT FOR RUSSIA

Blinken will head to Beijing on Friday for talks with his counterpart, Foreign Minister Wang Yi, and possibly President Xi Jinping. Those meetings could be fraught.

Just as Blinken landed in Shanghai, President Joe Biden signed a rare bipartisan bill that included $8 billion to counter China's military might, as well as billions in defence aid for Taiwan and $61 billion in aid to Ukraine.

Biden also signed a separate bill tied to the aid legislation that bans TikTok in the U.S. if its owner, the Chinese tech firm ByteDance, fails to divest the popular short video app over the next nine months to a year.

Blinken will press China to stop its firms from retooling and resupplying Russia's defence industrial base. Moscow invaded Ukraine days after agreeing a "no limits" partnership with Beijing, and while China has steered clear of providing arms, U.S. officials warn Chinese companies are sending dual-use technology that helps Russia's war effort.

Without providing details, a senior State Department official told reporters that Washington was prepared to "take steps" against Chinese firms it believes are damaging U.S. and European security.

State-run China Daily said in an editorial that there was "a huge question mark over what the discussions between Blinken and his hosts can yield" and that both sides "have been largely talking past each other."

"On the conflict in Ukraine, the world can see it clearly that the Ukraine issue is not an issue between China and the U.S., and the U.S. side should not turn it into one," it said.

Other state media also highlighted the tensions over the differences. "Plenty of animosity remains, primarily fuelled by Washington's adherence to a zero-sum mindset and framing China as a threat," a commentary in state-run Xinhua news agency said.

REUTERS
 
China is willing to cooperate with the US, but cooperation should be a two-way street, Chinese President Xi Jinping said on Friday when meeting with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

"China is not afraid of competition, but competition should be about common progress, not a zero-sum game," Xi said.

Xi said China is committed to non-alignment, and the US should not form small circles, adding that both sides can have their own friends and partners and should refrain from targeting, opposing, or damaging each other.

People's Daily China
 

The U.S. labor market is shifting toward skilled labor as white-collar hiring slows​


America's job market increasingly appears to be splitting into two tracks, economists say, alongside a steady demand for skilled workers and a flagging interest in hiring more "knowledge-based" professionals.

The evidence can be found in the data, which shows a higher unemployment rate for professional and business services workers, and a lower one for people who work in manufacturing.

"It's a buyer's market for brain and a seller's market for brawn," said Aaron Terrazas, chief economist at the jobs and workplace search site Glassdoor.

On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the latest monthly payroll data for the U.S. economy. Total employment rose by 175,000 in April. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 3.9% from 3.8% in March.

That came in below estimates of 240,000 jobs for April.

The softness in the jobs report was greeted with some positive reactions. Stock futures jumped after the news. Concerns about the U.S. economy have been focused on overheating — whether inflation will continue to rise and force the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher in an effort to slow the economy and bring rising prices under control.

Jason Furman, who served as President Barack Obama's top economic advisor, said on CNBC's "Squawk Box" that it was a "goldilocks" report, showing an economy that could be headed to the soft landing of reasonable inflation and low unemployment.

“The bottom line is this report is quite reassuring," said Furman, who now teaches at Harvard.

It's not that America is only — or even mostly — producing low-wage jobs. The health care industry continues to lead the employment boom, with an approximately 4.5% gain in payrolls over the past year, equating to some 750,000 new jobs. Other industries seeing strong growth include government jobs, certain sectors of social work, travel, tourism and the arts — alongside some manufacturing sectors.

But the overall labor market remains at something of a standstill, as seen in a report earlier this week showing the hiring rate continuing to drift sideways. At the same time, the rate of workers quitting or being laid off is also not showing much change. Economists led by Guy Berger at The Burning Glass Institute research group call it the "great stay."

"It’s a good time to have a job, but a not-so-good time to be actively looking for one," he wrote in his Substack newsletter Wednesday.

Many American consumers have also begun reporting signs of a deteriorating job situation. In its latest report on consumer confidence, the Conference Board business group said respondents to its monthly survey reported feeling less positive about the current labor market and more concerned about future business conditions, job availability and income.

That echoed findings of the New York Federal Reserve's monthly survey of consumer expectations, which reported more survey respondents feeling pessimistic about losing their job or finding a new job. Respondents rated the average probability of losing their job in the next 12 months at almost 1 in 6 — above pre-pandemic levels and the highest reading since September 2020.

"On the margin, businesses are not as eager to add staff," said Sarah House, managing director and senior economist at Wells Fargo.

But why has payroll data remained strong? One reason is increased supply, thanks to rising participation rates in the workforce, as well as booming immigration.

"There is increased labor 'supply' for businesses that do want to hire or add staff," House said.

Yet, those trends are likely to diminish too, if they haven't already, she said.

One sign that the job market remains strong is that the number of individuals collecting unemployment is still very low.

"We're seeing a gradual and orderly slowing" in workers quitting and firms with job openings, said Joe Brusuelas, principal and chief economist for RSM US LLP. That is consistent with private sector firms "carefully managing their labor force."

On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank does not intend to change its key interest rate anytime soon even as its fight against accelerating price increases has stalled — and despite the apparent softening of the labor market.

He said the central bank had "the luxury of strong growth and a strong labor market" that will allow it to maintain interest rates until inflation comes down further — and ruled out any implication that there might be "stagflation" in the economy.

But he invoked the prospect of a rate cut should the labor market "unexpectedly" weaken.

As inflation continues to moderate, Powell said, "We’re now focusing on the other goal," referring to the Fed's dual mandate of balancing price growth with jobs.

"The employment goal now comes back into focus. So we are focusing on it,” he said.

Some economists saw Friday's jobs report as sign that Powell's plans are coming to fruition.

"These are the #jobs numbers that Jay Powell was hoping for," David Wessel, director of the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy at the Brookings Institution, posted on X.

 
China’s Xi Jinping is visiting Europe for the first time in five years – his goodwill tour will be an uphill struggle

When Xi Jinping arrived in Italy for a state visit in 2019, he was given a lavish welcome, with private tours of Roman landmarks and a dinner serenaded by opera singer Andrea Bocelli, topped with a crowning flourish – Italy’s decision to join Xi’s signature Belt and Road infrastructure initiative.

Five years later, on his first return to the continent since then, the Chinese leader will land in a very different climate. While the pomp and ceremony may remain as Xi begins his six-day European tour in France on Sunday, views on China across the continent have shifted dramatically.

In the past weeks alone, the European Union has launched trade probes into China’s wind turbines and procurement of medical equipment, and raided offices of Chinese security equipment maker Nuctech as part of an investigation into subsidies. Germany and the United Kingdom in recent days also arrested or charged at least six people for alleged espionage and related crimes linked to China.

And in March, Italy formally exited the Belt and Road, costing the program its only G7 member country, in a blow to China and its leader.

Behind these developments are mounting economic grievances that have the EU preparing for a potential major trade confrontation with China – as well as growing suspicions about Beijing’s global ambitions and influence driven by alarm over China’s deepening ties with Russia as it wages war against Ukraine.

“China is seen increasingly as a multi-faceted threat in many European capitals. But there are divisions within Europe over how fast and far to go in addressing concerns about China, both in the economic and security spheres,” said Noah Barkin, a Berlin-based visiting senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States.

Now, Xi’s trip – with stops in France, Serbia and Hungary – is an opportunity to woo his critics, but also showcase that even as views are hardening in some parts of Europe, others still welcome China with open arms.

Beijing is keen to dampen Europe’s push to address alleged trade distortions, which would come at a bad time for its flagging economy. It also wants to ensure Europe doesn’t draw any closer to the US, especially amid uncertainty over the outcome of the upcoming US election.

Major breakthroughs with China’s toughest critics will be hard to come by unless Xi is ready to make surprise concessions. And the trip could instead serve to underscore divisions – not only between Europe and China – but those within Europe that could play to China’s favor, analysts say.


 
I think we might need to at some point raise a different thread on alternative empires to US or Chinese. Not sure what Europe is getting out of this deal, surely the EU should have been able to form it's own bloc if they weren't so bogged down with self imposed regulations and commitment to silly ideological claptrap like LGBTQ which were given more importance than they deserved.
 
I think we might need to at some point raise a different thread on alternative empires to US or Chinese. Not sure what Europe is getting out of this deal, surely the EU should have been able to form it's own bloc if they weren't so bogged down with self imposed regulations and commitment to silly ideological claptrap like LGBTQ which were given more importance than they deserved.
That issue is occurring in US as well, but that doesn’t necessarily stop innovation.
 
Chinese will win the EV wars, the only way for them to be challenged is if California gets its act together and partners with German/Swedes.

Only thing going for California right now is AI and Neuromorphic tech, but if China goes through their patents they will frogleap that too by copying/modification.

Lets see what Open AI launched today.
 
I think we might need to at some point raise a different thread on alternative empires to US or Chinese. Not sure what Europe is getting out of this deal, surely the EU should have been able to form it's own bloc if they weren't so bogged down with self imposed regulations and commitment to silly ideological claptrap like LGBTQ which were given more importance than they deserved.
Maybe I'm biased because I head up diversity for my company in India (not voluntary I assure you. Every senior leader has to take one of these and I dilly-dallied so long that this was the only one left) but I don't think LGBTQ and similar ideological overreach is the problem.

I think you hit the nail on the head on regulations though. It's a nightmare. Each of them start logically but where they end up is absurd. I think Europe's going to be left really behind in the next 20 years or so as China and India continue to rise and the States & Russia stay relevant. Sort of like the end of the Ottoman empire - stuck in bureaucracy and behind the times as new world powers are rising.
 
Maybe I'm biased because I head up diversity for my company in India (not voluntary I assure you. Every senior leader has to take one of these and I dilly-dallied so long that this was the only one left) but I don't think LGBTQ and similar ideological overreach is the problem.

I think you hit the nail on the head on regulations though. It's a nightmare. Each of them start logically but where they end up is absurd. I think Europe's going to be left really behind in the next 20 years or so as China and India continue to rise and the States & Russia stay relevant. Sort of like the end of the Ottoman empire - stuck in bureaucracy and behind the times as new world powers are rising.
Netherlands, Germany, Scandinavians will stay relevant, European engineering is still pretty awesome.
There is a reason why ASML is still impossible to replicate.
 
Netherlands, Germany, Scandinavians will stay relevant, European engineering is still pretty awesome.
There is a reason why ASML is still impossible to replicate.
Maybe...there's always islands of excellence left at the fall of every empire/nation but the trend seems irreversible.
 
Maybe...there's always islands of excellence left at the fall of every empire/nation but the trend seems irreversible.

I think empires that are homogeneous do survive or atleast make a comeback like Japanese , Chinese.. more chance of America and UK to fall due to diversity…
 
I think empires that are homogeneous do survive or atleast make a comeback like Japanese , Chinese.. more chance of America and UK to fall due to diversity…
That's a valid point. In the big picture, every nation rises, falls, rises again etc. but smaller homogenous empires/countries/cultures do seem to have a track record of bouncing back quicker. There's some good stuff out there on the shape of the next century. I've even read a few but obviously it's all pretty speculative and it's easy to get swept away when you're reading a well written book.
 

China takes measures against 12 U.S. military-linked firms​


China said on Wednesday it had taken measures against 12 companies involved in the U.S. military-industrial complex and their senior executives, in response to the U.S. arming of Taiwan and sanctions on Chinese companies.

The U.S. companies included units of Lockheed Martin (LMT.N), Raytheon and General Dynamics (GD.N), China's Foreign Ministry said.

The measures, which include freezing assets in China and banning senior executives from entering the country, took effect from Wednesday, it added.

The action follows U.S. "indiscriminately imposing unlawful unilateral sanctions on a number of Chinese entities on the basis of so-called Russia-related factors," the ministry said in a statement.

China said the U.S. had "ignored its objective and impartial position in the Ukrainian crisis", and had instead "engaged in unilateral bullying and economic coercion".

The ministry said the U.S. has also continued to sell arms to Taiwan, which "seriously violates" the one-China principle and joint communiqués between both countries, and "seriously undermines" China's sovereignty and territorial integrity.

 
I think we might need to at some point raise a different thread on alternative empires to US or Chinese. Not sure what Europe is getting out of this deal, surely the EU should have been able to form it's own bloc if they weren't so bogged down with self imposed regulations and commitment to silly ideological claptrap like LGBTQ which were given more importance than they deserved.
EU got bogged down by fanning the Ukrainian war hoping that'd be the end of Russia. Inversely their own economies have suffered from recession and persistent inflation. It'd be safer betting on Africa at this point.
 
EU got bogged down by fanning the Ukrainian war hoping that'd be the end of Russia. Inversely their own economies have suffered from recession and persistent inflation. It'd be safer betting on Africa at this point.

I always figured the offensive against Russia was NATO led, which means American led in reality. EU might have thought they could benefit as a by product but are they strong enough to act unilaterally if the US wasn't interested?
 
I always figured the offensive against Russia was NATO led, which means American led in reality. EU might have thought they could benefit as a by product but are they strong enough to act unilaterally if the US wasn't interested?
The issue is EU found comfort in outsourcing security to the US and redirecting it's defence spend towards social responsibilities. When push comes to shove EU will splinter in multiple directions when faced with a conflict, until and unless the Americans lead the way. EU know this as well, they need the Americans more than the Americans needing them.
 
The issue is EU found comfort in outsourcing security to the US and redirecting it's defence spend towards social responsibilities. When push comes to shove EU will splinter in multiple directions when faced with a conflict, until and unless the Americans lead the way. EU know this as well, they need the Americans more than the Americans needing them.
Then maybe the EU should make it's mind up and either forget notions of a united Europe and fall in line with US interests, or start mending ties with Russia...which proximity wise would probably make more sense.
 

China's premier hails 'new beginning' with US-allied South Korea, Japan​


hinese Premier Li Qiang praised what he called a restart in relations with Japan and South Korea as he met their leaders for the first three-way talks in four years on Monday, agreeing to revive trade and security dialogues hampered by global tensions.

The Chinese premier met with South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in Seoul with efforts to revitalise three-party free trade agreement negotiations, stalled since 2019, high on the agenda.

As the summit opened, Li said the meeting was "both a restart and a new beginning" and called for the comprehensive resumption of cooperation between East Asia's economic powerhouses.

But for this to happen politics should be separated from economic and trade issues, he added, calling for an end to protectionism and the decoupling of supply chains.

"For China, South Korea, and Japan, our close ties will not change, the spirit of cooperation achieved through crisis response will not change and our mission to safeguard regional peace and stability will not change," Li said.

A joint declaration released after the meeting called for China, Japan, and South Korea to formalise more regular communication at the highest levels, and collaborate on climate change, conservation, health, trade and international peace, among other areas.

The declaration also set a goal of boosting the number of people-to-people exchanges to 40 million by 2030 through exchanges in culture, tourism and education.

The leaders also issued separate joint statements on pandemic preparation and intellectual property protection.

Regardless of the agreements signed during the talks, the meeting itself is being seen as a mark of progress in relations between three countries whose relations are marked as much by suspicion and rancour as constructive engagement.

China and U.S.-allied South Korea and Japan are trying to manage mutual distrust amid the rivalry between Beijing and Washington, tensions over democratically ruled Taiwan, which China claims as its own, and North Korea's nuclear programme.

Yoon and Kishida have charted a closer course with each other and to Washington, embarking on unprecedented three-way cooperation with the United States on military and other measures.

U.S. President Joe Biden has raised barriers to Chinese imports, hiking tariffs on an array of Chinese imports including electric vehicle (EV) batteries and computer chips. Donald Trump, his rival in the November presidential election, has floated tariffs of 60% or higher on all Chinese goods.

On North Korea, Yoon and Kishida called on Pyongyang not to carry out a planned rocket launch carrying a space satellite, which they say uses ballistic missile technology banned by United Nations Security Council resolutions.

Li called for all parties to practice restraint and prevent further complication of the situation on the Korean peninsula. China is North Korea's only military ally, its largest trade partner, and along with Russia, has called for U.N. sanctions on North Korea to be eased.

The trade relationship between China, South Korea and Japan has evolved over the past decade to become increasingly competitive.

Those ties have been further tested by U.S. calls for its allies to shift their supply chains for key products, such as semiconductors, away from China.

Yoon said the leaders agreed to build a transparent and predictable trade and supply chain environment, but did not elaborate.

The leaders also attended a forum with top business executives from the three countries who noted that cooperation had not reached its potential due to the global challenges, but agreed that industry would work together to support trade and stabilise supply chains.

South Korea, Japan and China held 16 rounds of official negotiations over a three-way FTA after they first kicked off in 2012.

At their last negotiation in November 2019, the three countries agreed on liberalisation at a level higher than the Regional Comprehensive Economic partnership (RCEP), of which they are all members, encompassing areas from trade of goods and services to investment, customs, competition and e-commerce.

Monday's summit comes a day after the leaders met separately for bilateral talks with each other.

In those meetings, Li and Yoon agreed to a diplomatic and security dialogue and resume free trade talks, while Kishida and the Chinese premier discussed Taiwan and agreed to hold a new round of bilateral high-level economic dialogue.

Yoon also asked China to play a constructive role with its partners in North Korea, which is expanding its nuclear weapons and missile arsenal in defiance of United Nations Security Council resolutions.

 
The issue is EU found comfort in outsourcing security to the US and redirecting it's defence spend towards social responsibilities. When push comes to shove EU will splinter in multiple directions when faced with a conflict, until and unless the Americans lead the way. EU know this as well, they need the Americans more than the Americans needing them.
They are trying now ,all the digital act and stuff but it’s too late, US tech is too big for them.
 
I think empires that are homogeneous do survive or atleast make a comeback like Japanese , Chinese.. more chance of America and UK to fall due to diversity…

Both Chinese and japanese rise post WWII has depended on exports to US. japan reached its peak early 90's and it has been a slow bleed with not end in sight.

The same issues are not beginning to plague China.
 
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Both Chinese and japanese rise post WWII has depended on exports to US. japan reached its peak early 90's and it has been a slow bleed with not end in sight.

The same issues are not beginning to plague China.

I read the article which pointed to China Japanese issues being same.

Chinese ,Skorea and Japanese exports to US are true but you are mistaken if you think that’s all that matters.

If just exports to US was a thing every tom dick country would had made it, these countries have bounced back thanks to extensive technological advancements that they have utilised within their own land to solve their problems as well.

If export was all that was needed Mexico, Nigeria would had made it too
 
I read the article which pointed to China Japanese issues being same.

Chinese ,Skorea and Japanese exports to US are true but you are mistaken if you think that’s all that matters.

If just exports to US was a thing every tom dick country would had made it, these countries have bounced back thanks to extensive technological advancements that they have utilised within their own land to solve their problems as well.

If export was all that was needed Mexico, Nigeria would had made it too
1) main things are trade and exports both in volume and relative to your population.

Eg life in post ww2 china was miserable till deng xiaopeng opened up the economy.

Japan and Meiji reformation improved Japan and US support post WW2 helped it.

Of course you need the necessary intellectual and manpower resources to make the products. There are social structures which help with that.

It also helps to have geography which makes it difficult for others to interfere in your internal affairs. Japan and china are great examples of that.
 
1) main things are trade and exports both in volume and relative to your population.

Eg life in post ww2 china was miserable till deng xiaopeng opened up the economy.

Japan and Meiji reformation improved Japan and US support post WW2 helped it.

Of course you need the necessary intellectual and manpower resources to make the products. There are social structures which help with that.

It also helps to have geography which makes it difficult for others to interfere in your internal affairs. Japan and china are great examples of that.
Pre ww-2 itself Japan was huge with advancements, even after Germany fell the fools kept going at America.

Japan was extremely ahead even during 1700.. they were just closed off.
Japan defeated Russia as late as 1905, embarrassing the heck out of them.
Japanese were a warrior country with good economy before WW-2 as well.

Anyone can interfere with China and Japan , they are open to Naval destruction like any, read on how China was cut open by America and Britain.

Opening up economy just doesn’t bring about changes, Japs and Chinese have made technological advancement second to none, they were always ahead and have become even more ahead in this century..
 
Pre ww-2 itself Japan was huge with advancements, even after Germany fell the fools kept going at America.
Meiji restoration/modernisation happened in late 19th century which set them up for early 20th century
Japan was extremely ahead even during 1700.. they were just closed off.
Nope they had a strong caste system with shogun holding the power and samurai holding the weapons. the rest of the pleabians had not choice but to behave
Japan defeated Russia as late as 1905, embarrassing the heck out of them.
not exactly a great achivement. Tsarist russia was godawful.
Japanese were a warrior country
Always was the case. Constant internal conflicts
with good economy before WW-2 as well.
Yes, thanks to opening up in late 19th century and trading. Why do you think they attacked peal harbor? becos of US naval blockade, they couldn't get the oil necessary.
Anyone can interfere with China and Japan , they are open to Naval destruction like any, read on how China was cut open by America and Britain.
Yup. It took the colonial power of UK to get china to heel. no some rif raff. It naval blockade and A-bomb from Us to control Japan.
Opening up economy just doesn’t bring about changes, Japs and Chinese have made technological advancement second to none, they were always ahead and have become even more ahead in this century..
Opening up and being protected by US in the case of Japan, gave it access to markets which in turn helps with technological advancement.

In terms of technology, south Korea was ahead of China until china opened up. u know what happened after.
 

China Warns US Against 'Ideological Confrontation' Over Tiananmen Comments​


China on Wednesday warned the US against stoking "ideological confrontation", after Washington's top diplomat Antony Blinken vowed to never stop promoting human rights in China 35 years after the bloody crackdown in Tiananmen Square.

"The move of the US seriously interferes with China's internal affairs," foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said, demanding the US "stop provoking ideological confrontation, and stop interfering in China's internal affairs under the pretext of human rights."

 

G7 vows action against 'unfair' China business practices​


Leaders of the Group of Seven vowed on Friday to tackle what they called unfair business practices by China that were undermining their workers and industries, according to a draft statement on the final day of their annual summit.

The G7 also warned of action against Chinese financial institutions that helped Russia obtain weaponry for its war against Ukraine.

The leaders of Italy, the United States, Britain, Canada, France, Germany, and Japan were on Friday discussing concerns surrounding China's excess industrial capacity, which Western governments say is distorting local markets.

Pope Francis was then due to make a historic appearance at the summit in southern Italy to discuss artificial intelligence.

The draft statement, seen by Reuters, stressed the G7 was not trying to harm China or thwart its economic development but would "continue to take actions to protect our businesses from unfair practices, to level the playing field and remedy ongoing harm."

The U.S. this week imposed fresh sanctions on China-based firms supplying semiconductors to Russia amid worries over Beijing's increasingly aggressive stance against Taiwan and run-ins with the Philippines over rival maritime claims.

"China is not supplying weapons (to Russia) but the ability to produce those weapons and the technology available to do it, so it is in fact helping Russia," U.S. President Joe Biden told reporters at the summit on Thursday after signing a bilateral security pact with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

During the first day of their meeting in southern Italy, the G7 nations agreed on a deal to provide $50 billion of loans for Ukraine backed by interest from frozen Russian assets - hailing the accord as a powerful signal of Western resolve.

In the draft, G7 leaders also promised sanctions against entities that helped Russia circumvent sanctions on its oil by transporting it fraudulently.

The draft reiterated commitments made at the G7 meeting in Japan last year on sexual and reproductive rights but did not directly mention the word abortion.

The issue has caused a dispute between France and Italy after Rome - which holds the G7 rotating presidency - demanded the removal of a reference to "safe and legal abortion" from the final statement.

The pope will be joined by 10 other heads of state and government, including the prime minister of India and the king of Jordan, as the G7 throws open its doors to outsiders to show it isn't an aloof, exclusive club.

Besides his speech on AI, the Pope will hold multiple bilateral meetings, including with Biden, Zelenskiy and Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan.

"It is a historic day. We will welcome the Holy Father. It is the first time for a pontiff at a G7. I am proud it will happen under the Italian presidency," Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni told reporters on Thursday.

Leaders will also discuss immigration, a crucial issue for Meloni who is pushing Europe to help her curb illegal flows from Africa and who has launched a flagship plan to boost development in the continent to tackle the root cause of the departures.

Many of the leaders will leave Italy late on Friday, including Biden, and Meloni said they had already agreed on the summit's conclusions, to be approved at the end of the day.

On Saturday, there will be room for bilateral meetings for those staying on, ahead of a final news conference from Meloni.

 

China Warns US Against 'Ideological Confrontation' Over Tiananmen Comments​


China on Wednesday warned the US against stoking "ideological confrontation", after Washington's top diplomat Antony Blinken vowed to never stop promoting human rights in China 35 years after the bloody crackdown in Tiananmen Square.

"The move of the US seriously interferes with China's internal affairs," foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said, demanding the US "stop provoking ideological confrontation, and stop interfering in China's internal affairs under the pretext of human rights."

China has ultimate Ctrl Alt delete button of history!
Massacre your own people and delete!
 
China has ultimate Ctrl Alt delete button of history!
Massacre your own people and delete!
US and Europe have it for rest of the world- esp brown and black people.

Both are wrong but just saying, IF China was to listen to those students that protested then they wouldn’t be where they are today, taking millions out of poverty.
 
US and Europe have it for rest of the world- esp brown and black people.

Both are wrong but just saying, IF China was to listen to those students that protested then they wouldn’t be where they are today, taking millions out of poverty.
China history is filled with wiping of millions and millions of people in history. Yes, western colonization has been brutal and genocidal but somehow people forget how crazily high the mortality of Chinese civil wars and rebellions is! Rest of the world falls far behind!
 
China history is filled with wiping of millions and millions of people in history. Yes, western colonization has been brutal and genocidal but somehow people forget how crazily high the mortality of Chinese civil wars and rebellions is! Rest of the world falls far behind!
That’s because of their population, if you keep in mind their population and then check percentage wise, European American nations are crazy when their wars took place.
 
That’s because of their population, if you keep in mind their population and then check percentage wise, European American nations are crazy when their wars took place.
Please do check before throwing the percentage angle again.
How much of the world population fell to Western colonization and what percentage got wiped compared to what Chinese and other lesser known empires had done to their own people. Western world for all its ills has shown some some sort of acceptance of it past brutalities while other civilizations just glorify their pasts as very saintly and peaceful.

The Taiping Rebellion, also known as the Taiping Civil War or the Taiping Revolution, was a civil war in China between the Manchu-led Qing dynasty and the Hakka-led Taiping Heavenly Kingdom. The conflict lasted for 14 years, from its outbreak in 1850 until the fall of Taiping-controlled Nanjing—which they had renamed "Tianjing"—in 1864. However, the last rebel forces were not defeated until August 1871. Estimates of the conflict's death toll range between 20 and 30 million people, representing 5–10% of China's population.


this is just one of the many many brutal times of Chinese history.
 
Please do check before throwing the percentage angle again.
How much of the world population fell to Western colonization and what percentage got wiped compared to what Chinese and other lesser known empires had done to their own people. Western world for all its ills has shown some some sort of acceptance of it past brutalities while other civilizations just glorify their pasts as very saintly and peaceful.




this is just one of the many many brutal times of Chinese history.
Thank you for the correction.. heres another that supports your point on death toll. But they havent deleted that from their history.
 

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Thank you for the correction.. heres another that supports your point on death toll. But they havent deleted that from their history.
We know about colonization and genocides by Western nations but somehow brutalities of Eastern empires are know only to people who like Trivia.
Even in present ... literally thousands and thousands more have died in sudanese Civil war.. millions displaced .. no one is talking about that. Millions displaced in Myanmar civil war... no one is talking about it. Similar for Yemen, but everyone knows about Gaza. Why?? Because the West is involved.
Death toll in Sudan, Yemen and Myanmar is several times and brutal than whats going on in Gaza.
West is an easy target because freedom of expression even in a skewed manner exists there.
 

China suspends arms control and non-proliferation consultations with U.S.​


China has decided to suspend talks with the United States on holding a new round of consultations over arms control and non-proliferation, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on Wednesday.

The responsibility for the suspension lies squarely on the U.S. side, said Lin Jian, a spokesperson for the ministry.

Lin said China took the move because the political atmosphere in which the two sides continue to engage in arms control consultations has been undermined by the U.S. side.

For some time, the U.S. has ignored China's resolute opposition and repeated representations, continued to engage in arms sales to China's Taiwan region, and taken a series of negative measures that undermine China's core interests and hurt the mutual trust between the two sides, he explained.

China is willing to maintain communication with the U.S. on international arms control on the basis of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation, said Lin.

But the U.S. must respect China's core interests and create the necessary conditions for dialogue and exchange between the two sides, he added.

China and the U.S. held consultations on arms control and non-proliferation in Washington, D.C., in November 2023.

 

China suspends arms control and non-proliferation consultations with U.S.​


China has decided to suspend talks with the United States on holding a new round of consultations over arms control and non-proliferation, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on Wednesday.

The responsibility for the suspension lies squarely on the U.S. side, said Lin Jian, a spokesperson for the ministry.

Lin said China took the move because the political atmosphere in which the two sides continue to engage in arms control consultations has been undermined by the U.S. side.

For some time, the U.S. has ignored China's resolute opposition and repeated representations, continued to engage in arms sales to China's Taiwan region, and taken a series of negative measures that undermine China's core interests and hurt the mutual trust between the two sides, he explained.

China is willing to maintain communication with the U.S. on international arms control on the basis of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation, said Lin.

But the U.S. must respect China's core interests and create the necessary conditions for dialogue and exchange between the two sides, he added.

China and the U.S. held consultations on arms control and non-proliferation in Washington, D.C., in November 2023.

Chinese state statements are always super ironic and funny. :ROFLMAO:
 
Chip stocks drop on fears US to toughen China rules

Technology stocks around the world have slumped on fears about the global computer chip industry.

The sell-off came after a report that the Biden administration could be set to further tighten restrictions on exports of semiconductor equipment to China.

Comments by former US President Donald Trump that Taiwan, the biggest producer of chips, should pay for its own defence added to the concerns.

In the US, the tech-heavy Nasdaq index closed 2.7% lower on Wednesday, while chip stocks have also tumbled in Europe and Asia.

"Regardless of the outcome of the elections... I think we will see the US increase some of the restrictions" said Bob O'Donnell, chief analyst at TECHnalysis Research.

"How far they will take it, though, is the big question."

In Asia, chip making giant TSMC was trading almost 3% lower on Thursday, while semiconductor equipment maker Tokyo Electron was down by around 9.5%.

That came after Nvidia closed 6.6% lower in New York on Wednesday, while AMD lost more than 10%.

In Europe, shares in ASML, which makes chip making machines, tumbled by almost 11%.

The falls came after Bloomberg News reported on Wednesday that the US government is preparing to impose its tightest curbs yet on semiconductor making equipment to China if firms like ASML and Tokyo Electron continue to give the country access to their advanced chip technology.

ASML declined to comment when contacted by the BBC. Tokyo Electron did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The BBC has also asked the US Commerce Department for a statement.

The Biden administration has previously taken steps to restrict China's access to advanced chip technology.

In October, it restricted exports to China of advanced semiconductors used in artificial intelligence (AI) technology.

The remarks on Taiwan by Mr Trump also hinted at possible disruption of global chip supplies.

Taiwan produces most of the world's advanced chips.

“Investors always react to any remarks from the US but despite these comments, the long term business trend for the semiconductor industry is clearly going up,” said Marco Mezger, Executive Vice President of memory chip technology company Neumonda.

BBC
 
US charges Chinese dissident with allegedly spying for Beijing

US prosecutors have filed criminal charges against a Chinese dissident living in the US, accusing him of being an agent of Beijing's intelligence service.

Yuanjun Tang, 67, was arrested on Wednesday in the New York City, the US department of justice (DOJ) said in a statement.

He is alleged to have spied on US-based Chinese democracy activists and dissidents.

Mr Tang, now a naturalised US citizen, is also accused of making false statements to the FBI.

The BBC could not immediately identify a lawyer for Mr Tang.

In Wednesday's statement, the DOJ said Mr Tang "was charged by criminal complaint with acting and conspiring to act in the United States as an unregistered agent of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and making materially false statements to the FBI".

It also alleged that between 2018 and 2023 he acted as China's agent on the orders of the country's ministry of state security (MSS) - China's principal civilian intelligence agency.

Mr Tang is accused of regularly receiving instructions via email, encrypted chats and other means of communications from the agency.

It is also alleged that he "regularly received instructions from and reported to an MSS intelligence officer regarding individuals and groups viewed by the PRC as potentially adverse to the PRC’s interests, including prominent US-based Chinese democracy activists and dissidents."

"He also travelled at least three times for face-to-face meetings with MSS intelligence officers and helped the MSS infiltrate a group chat on an encrypted messaging application used by numerous PRC dissidents and pro-democracy activists to communicate about pro-democracy issues and express criticism of the PRC government," the DOJ alleges.

He apparently agreed to work for China's intelligence agency in a bid to see his family living in mainland China, according to CBS, the BBC's US news partner, which cites US prosecutors.

According to court documents, Mr Tang was imprisoned in China for opposing the Chinese government.

He protested against the Chinese Communist Party during the 1989 Tiananmen Square demonstrations, CBS reports.

In about 2002, he managed to defect to Taiwan, and was later granted political asylum in the US, the DOJ said.

BBC
 
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