JaDed
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It would be true but Xi came to US to meet Biden and American businesses not the other way around.
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That’s not how it works.. Petro Dollar is a thing yes but American economy is transparent to invest in, every country’s excess money goes i to US bonds, no other country has the capability to be that transparent.. stop having one dimensional thought process , everything is a combination of things.Just bear one thing in mind the day petro dollar gets replaced by petro Yuan universally. That day will be the last day of US hegemony and would mark the start of China's global supremacy.
Brother you may call it one dimensional. But you should know the US fed prints money from thin air. The US does not have any actual assets to back their currency. They only rely on great demand of oil and its trade in petrodollar. That's why I said the day petro dollar ends, no one is going to invest in their treasury bonds.That’s not how it works.. Petro Dollar is a thing yes but American economy is transparent to invest in, every country’s excess money goes i to US bonds, no other country has the capability to be that transparent.. stop having one dimensional thought process , everything is a combination of things.
China has to prove that its transparent from its government to invest in, it’s so far not because it prefers only manufacturing.
So be it, if and when that comes an investor will pull out of the US and put their money where the returns are, don't care if it's Rwanda as long as there's returns and ease of doing business. I need my assets to return at least 20% annually, not greedy and definitely no emotions attached.Just bear one thing in mind the day petro dollar gets replaced by petro Yuan universally. That day will be the last day of US hegemony and would mark the start of China's global supremacy.
That day is not going to be anywhere in the near future.Just bear one thing in mind the day petro dollar gets replaced by petro Yuan universally. That day will be the last day of US hegemony and would mark the start of China's global supremacy.
China is like that shady guy who pretends to be rich but never reveals the truth about his wealth.That’s not how it works.. Petro Dollar is a thing yes but American economy is transparent to invest in, every country’s excess money goes i to US bonds, no other country has the capability to be that transparent.. stop having one dimensional thought process , everything is a combination of things.
China has to prove that its transparent from its government to invest in, it’s so far not because it prefers only manufacturing.
That’s is not true, it’s on the basis on productivity per capita as well, almost every tech you use software or hardward is designed with some US company..Brother you may call it one dimensional. But you should know the US fed prints money from thin air. The US does not have any actual assets to back their currency. They only rely on great demand of oil and its trade in petrodollar. That's why I said the day petro dollar ends, no one is going to invest in their treasury bonds.
Well don't consider China to be that naive they are earning exponentially on all these debts by getting strategic assets of the loaned countries on lease for 40 and in some cases 99 years. And on child policy they have already abolished the one child policy. Chinese are so cunning ppl and the problem with US is its extravagant debt spending to fund its economy and that is why such a model is never sustainable. Also the new xi - putin nexus is disastrous for US dollar hegemony as they are hell bent to ditch dollar through trade in local currencies.That day is not going to be anywhere in the near future.
Chinese economy is struggling and their belt and road project has been a major flop. At this point China cannot even go back on all the infrastructure projects it has undertaken in other countries.
No country will full trust Chinese yuan. It is highly manipulated and there is no transparency in its value. You have to accept what ccp tells the world. I doubt even BRICS nations will use digital Yuan.
Basically China has given brainless loans to struggling third world countries and they are not going to get that money back. No matter how much China restructures the debt, countries like Pakistan, South Africa. Srilanka etc are not paying back any of that money.
China will remain this way for the foreseeable future. They have another major problem coming in the near future. Their aging population and not enough people being born to take care of the old and feeble and their retirement costs.
To break this China needs more allies among the top 10 economies in the world and this is where they're failing. Russia is simply a $2 trillion economy, small fish. Nearly 70% of the global economy is made up of the top 10 alone. What China desperately needs to break the western hegemony are better quality allies.Also the new xi - putin nexus is disastrous for US dollar hegemony as they are hell bent to ditch dollar through trade in local currencies.
Yep China do need more allies but western alliance isn't that strong too owing to their emerging differences.To break this China needs more allies among the top 10 economies in the world and this is where they're failing. Russia is simply a $2 trillion economy, small fish. Nearly 70% of the global economy is made up of the top 10 alone. What China desperately needs to break the western hegemony are better quality allies.
Looks great .can u pls elaborate with few more graphics, if anything related to cpec investments and roll backs by respective countries too.As there is a constant fear among all the new axis and its allies, how much quickly can China cover its losses in its technical advancements will be interesting. Even chinese products are banned from sensitive areas. China also wants to remove us software's and hardware in its govt sector and imp areas(by 27).I'll stop now because this could be an endless post and will respond if people are willing to engage.
I'll try and get to it later tonight. It's not a simple answer though. Belt & Road (or CPEC as it's known in Pakistan) is not just successful or a failure. It's a very mixed bag with some of both and probably needs a major re-evaluation.Looks great .can u pls elaborate with few more graphics, if anything related to cpec investments and roll backs by respective countries too.As there is a constant fear among all the new axis and its allies, how much quickly can China cover its losses in its technical advancements will be interesting. Even chinese products are banned from sensitive areas. China also wants to remove us software's and hardware in its govt sector and imp areas(by 27).
China will still do really well being a powerful middle income nation due to sheer amount of high IQ citizens.Somehow missed this thread on one of favourite topics. Pity a high quality discussion over the first 30odd posts was derailed by the usual jingoism.
I'll make a couple of points. The decision on China Vs. US and who will dominate this century is still very much in the balance but the last couple of years have tilted the balance towards the US & allies. 2-3 factors have made the difference
- China taking the COVID restriction stubbornly too far and the consequent kickstarting the China+1 strategy plus the economic impact ruining a major growth engine - the Chinese real estate industry
- Trump's import restrictions and Biden's continued pressure on restricting advanced technologies
- India joining the US camp both economically and militarily
Manufacturing-wise, China is still the 800 pound Gorilla in the room (I'm aware that the terms new Axis & new Allies are pejorative. They're not mine but the author's).
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However, the trajectory isn't great. Productivity growth has slowed down
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Keep in mind that although China has grown mightily in percentage terms, in absolute terms its gap in living standards relative to the U.S. is actually larger than it was in 1990 and the rate of growth now is slowing down which means it may never catch up and China risks being stuck as a powerful middle income country.
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I'll stop now because this could be an endless post and will respond if people are willing to engage.
In truth, I'm not sure what can be said about the impact of the recent Technological Cold War that's happening between the New Axis and New Allies. It's still too early to assess impact since the official war is only about a few years old. There's been a lot of articles, academic papers, blog posts etc. but all of them to my mind speculative. One my closest friends (naturalised US citizen) who went into academics is on the US government advisory panel for the CHIPS act. How new it is will be obvious from the fact that he completed the 3 months security check and took oath of office in early February.Looks great .can u pls elaborate with few more graphics, if anything related to cpec investments and roll backs by respective countries too.As there is a constant fear among all the new axis and its allies, how much quickly can China cover its losses in its technical advancements will be interesting. Even chinese products are banned from sensitive areas. China also wants to remove us software's and hardware in its govt sector and imp areas(by 27).
Agreed. The western has finally decided to take the anti-China efforts seriously. Post cold-war, there was a period of anti-Islam which sort of gave space to China to grow (mostly legitimately...occasionally as you state, illegitimately) without serious opposition. Now slowing down China's rise and influence is the main theme of a lot of foreign and industrial policy.@Red-Indian Till now Chinese were able to reverse engineer the latest technologies and incorporate in their companies.But just like cold war days,soviet were very good with old technologies but went out of sync with new innovations as there was no help on lastest ones.I think something like that will plague Chinese in down the lane.The more the sensitivity area more the problem.As u said every one will fight for every inch and it will be dirty. Now it will be pro vs anti chinese/us on every issue.In a sense all govts has to behave as Extreme Right for opponents and left for same axis.
Yeah once everyone is fixated to slow down the Chinese progress,it's a multi faceted problem for them.Somewhere I read ,apart from.them there is no developed and super rich country in their block.So it has to be the bread winner for all of them against the odds.As I said, probably inevitable in the long run but likely came too soon for China to complete it's ascension into a developed, upper income country.
This reduction in FDI is not a current year phenomenon. It's definitely been going on longer than that. Probably since the pandemic when companies were reeling from the almost total Chinese shutdown. Maybe even longer than that.“Many foreign businesses have been looking to "de-risk" supply chains and operations away from China. Inbound foreign direct investment shrank nearly 20% in the first two months of the year, data released last week showed.“
- Reason why China is finally calming down,lowest FDI since 1990s for them
US and Netherlands are very strict with that, China still has managed to bypass bans somehow with TSMC , I saw other day that Samsung has helped Huawei.This reduction in FDI is not a current year phenomenon. It's definitely been going on longer than that. Probably since the pandemic when companies were reeling from the almost total Chinese shutdown. Maybe even longer than that.
Here's evidence
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To be fair though, I don't think it is the investment loss that bothers the Chinese anymore. They generate plenty of Capex themselves due to their savings rate and massive current account surplus. They're more bothered about lack of access to latest technologies. Xi was especially wooing the Dutch Prime Minister since they want access to ASML lithography systems.
Decoupling is reality now. Companies are wiling to bear slight higher costs to reduce Supply Chain risk. Talk to a Supply Chain or sourcing manager in any big company today and it's their number one submission. There will be some impact in the short term but governments are falling over themselves to give tax and other concessions to offset some of it.From my limited knowledge , decoupling from China will damage Western economies much more than it will China.
The West and countries like South Korea and Japan depend much more on capital goods from China(and other BRICS) nations than the other way around.
It's also true, albeit less true, for intermediary goods.
Chasing labour arbitrage and having strict environmental policies(in EU) has left to deindustrialization in the West .
It will take time(more than a decade) and cost a lot more to reindustrialise and build that productive capacity to become less dependent on China.
It's not going to happen any time soon or you risk seeing massive inflation in the developed world.
Decoupling is reality now. Companies are wiling to bear slight higher costs to reduce Supply Chain risk. Talk to a Supply Chain or sourcing manager in any big company today and it's their number one submission. There will be some impact in the short term but governments are falling over themselves to give tax and other concessions to offset some of it.
Here's some evidence. Not perfect but you can clearly see the trend and it's sustained. In the last 7 years, China has fallen from 21% of US Imports to 15%. Now some of that is rerouting through other countries etc. but a lot of that is real.
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If you want to know where it's rerouting, see where the Greenfield investments are going. See the spike in every country except China.
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Of course, it's never so simple. You're probably referring to research from the International Institute of Finance which argues that most of the trade is being rerouted.I saw some data that those countries have had to increase their imports of capital goods from China . So, there may not be direct dependency. I'll try and post that if I find it.
Naw on the contrary, Xi came to US not the other way.Only China and Russia are capable of bowing America to its knees.
Lol do you really believe that?China is the need of USA, besides maintaining good relations with China, the USA has no other option.
Ofcourse yesLol do you really believe that?
It is not an authentic sourceThis is what you call development. Pretty obvious the numbers in 2024 are even less.
That issue is occurring in US as well, but that doesn’t necessarily stop innovation.I think we might need to at some point raise a different thread on alternative empires to US or Chinese. Not sure what Europe is getting out of this deal, surely the EU should have been able to form it's own bloc if they weren't so bogged down with self imposed regulations and commitment to silly ideological claptrap like LGBTQ which were given more importance than they deserved.
Maybe I'm biased because I head up diversity for my company in India (not voluntary I assure you. Every senior leader has to take one of these and I dilly-dallied so long that this was the only one left) but I don't think LGBTQ and similar ideological overreach is the problem.I think we might need to at some point raise a different thread on alternative empires to US or Chinese. Not sure what Europe is getting out of this deal, surely the EU should have been able to form it's own bloc if they weren't so bogged down with self imposed regulations and commitment to silly ideological claptrap like LGBTQ which were given more importance than they deserved.
Netherlands, Germany, Scandinavians will stay relevant, European engineering is still pretty awesome.Maybe I'm biased because I head up diversity for my company in India (not voluntary I assure you. Every senior leader has to take one of these and I dilly-dallied so long that this was the only one left) but I don't think LGBTQ and similar ideological overreach is the problem.
I think you hit the nail on the head on regulations though. It's a nightmare. Each of them start logically but where they end up is absurd. I think Europe's going to be left really behind in the next 20 years or so as China and India continue to rise and the States & Russia stay relevant. Sort of like the end of the Ottoman empire - stuck in bureaucracy and behind the times as new world powers are rising.
Maybe...there's always islands of excellence left at the fall of every empire/nation but the trend seems irreversible.Netherlands, Germany, Scandinavians will stay relevant, European engineering is still pretty awesome.
There is a reason why ASML is still impossible to replicate.
Maybe...there's always islands of excellence left at the fall of every empire/nation but the trend seems irreversible.
That's a valid point. In the big picture, every nation rises, falls, rises again etc. but smaller homogenous empires/countries/cultures do seem to have a track record of bouncing back quicker. There's some good stuff out there on the shape of the next century. I've even read a few but obviously it's all pretty speculative and it's easy to get swept away when you're reading a well written book.I think empires that are homogeneous do survive or atleast make a comeback like Japanese , Chinese.. more chance of America and UK to fall due to diversity…
EU got bogged down by fanning the Ukrainian war hoping that'd be the end of Russia. Inversely their own economies have suffered from recession and persistent inflation. It'd be safer betting on Africa at this point.I think we might need to at some point raise a different thread on alternative empires to US or Chinese. Not sure what Europe is getting out of this deal, surely the EU should have been able to form it's own bloc if they weren't so bogged down with self imposed regulations and commitment to silly ideological claptrap like LGBTQ which were given more importance than they deserved.
EU got bogged down by fanning the Ukrainian war hoping that'd be the end of Russia. Inversely their own economies have suffered from recession and persistent inflation. It'd be safer betting on Africa at this point.
The issue is EU found comfort in outsourcing security to the US and redirecting it's defence spend towards social responsibilities. When push comes to shove EU will splinter in multiple directions when faced with a conflict, until and unless the Americans lead the way. EU know this as well, they need the Americans more than the Americans needing them.I always figured the offensive against Russia was NATO led, which means American led in reality. EU might have thought they could benefit as a by product but are they strong enough to act unilaterally if the US wasn't interested?
Then maybe the EU should make it's mind up and either forget notions of a united Europe and fall in line with US interests, or start mending ties with Russia...which proximity wise would probably make more sense.The issue is EU found comfort in outsourcing security to the US and redirecting it's defence spend towards social responsibilities. When push comes to shove EU will splinter in multiple directions when faced with a conflict, until and unless the Americans lead the way. EU know this as well, they need the Americans more than the Americans needing them.
They are trying now ,all the digital act and stuff but it’s too late, US tech is too big for them.The issue is EU found comfort in outsourcing security to the US and redirecting it's defence spend towards social responsibilities. When push comes to shove EU will splinter in multiple directions when faced with a conflict, until and unless the Americans lead the way. EU know this as well, they need the Americans more than the Americans needing them.
I think empires that are homogeneous do survive or atleast make a comeback like Japanese , Chinese.. more chance of America and UK to fall due to diversity…
Both Chinese and japanese rise post WWII has depended on exports to US. japan reached its peak early 90's and it has been a slow bleed with not end in sight.
The same issues are not beginning to plague China.
1) main things are trade and exports both in volume and relative to your population.I read the article which pointed to China Japanese issues being same.
Chinese ,Skorea and Japanese exports to US are true but you are mistaken if you think that’s all that matters.
If just exports to US was a thing every tom dick country would had made it, these countries have bounced back thanks to extensive technological advancements that they have utilised within their own land to solve their problems as well.
If export was all that was needed Mexico, Nigeria would had made it too
Pre ww-2 itself Japan was huge with advancements, even after Germany fell the fools kept going at America.1) main things are trade and exports both in volume and relative to your population.
Eg life in post ww2 china was miserable till deng xiaopeng opened up the economy.
Japan and Meiji reformation improved Japan and US support post WW2 helped it.
Of course you need the necessary intellectual and manpower resources to make the products. There are social structures which help with that.
It also helps to have geography which makes it difficult for others to interfere in your internal affairs. Japan and china are great examples of that.
Meiji restoration/modernisation happened in late 19th century which set them up for early 20th centuryPre ww-2 itself Japan was huge with advancements, even after Germany fell the fools kept going at America.
Nope they had a strong caste system with shogun holding the power and samurai holding the weapons. the rest of the pleabians had not choice but to behaveJapan was extremely ahead even during 1700.. they were just closed off.
not exactly a great achivement. Tsarist russia was godawful.Japan defeated Russia as late as 1905, embarrassing the heck out of them.
Always was the case. Constant internal conflictsJapanese were a warrior country
Yes, thanks to opening up in late 19th century and trading. Why do you think they attacked peal harbor? becos of US naval blockade, they couldn't get the oil necessary.with good economy before WW-2 as well.
Yup. It took the colonial power of UK to get china to heel. no some rif raff. It naval blockade and A-bomb from Us to control Japan.Anyone can interfere with China and Japan , they are open to Naval destruction like any, read on how China was cut open by America and Britain.
Opening up and being protected by US in the case of Japan, gave it access to markets which in turn helps with technological advancement.Opening up economy just doesn’t bring about changes, Japs and Chinese have made technological advancement second to none, they were always ahead and have become even more ahead in this century..
China has ultimate Ctrl Alt delete button of history!China Warns US Against 'Ideological Confrontation' Over Tiananmen Comments
China on Wednesday warned the US against stoking "ideological confrontation", after Washington's top diplomat Antony Blinken vowed to never stop promoting human rights in China 35 years after the bloody crackdown in Tiananmen Square.
"The move of the US seriously interferes with China's internal affairs," foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said, demanding the US "stop provoking ideological confrontation, and stop interfering in China's internal affairs under the pretext of human rights."
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China Warns US Against 'Ideological Confrontation' Over Tiananmen Comments
China on Wednesday warned the US against stoking "ideological confrontation", after Washington's top diplomat Antony Blinken vowed to never stop promoting human rights in China 35 years after the bloody crackdown in Tiananmen Square.www.barrons.com
US and Europe have it for rest of the world- esp brown and black people.China has ultimate Ctrl Alt delete button of history!
Massacre your own people and delete!
China history is filled with wiping of millions and millions of people in history. Yes, western colonization has been brutal and genocidal but somehow people forget how crazily high the mortality of Chinese civil wars and rebellions is! Rest of the world falls far behind!US and Europe have it for rest of the world- esp brown and black people.
Both are wrong but just saying, IF China was to listen to those students that protested then they wouldn’t be where they are today, taking millions out of poverty.
That’s because of their population, if you keep in mind their population and then check percentage wise, European American nations are crazy when their wars took place.China history is filled with wiping of millions and millions of people in history. Yes, western colonization has been brutal and genocidal but somehow people forget how crazily high the mortality of Chinese civil wars and rebellions is! Rest of the world falls far behind!
Please do check before throwing the percentage angle again.That’s because of their population, if you keep in mind their population and then check percentage wise, European American nations are crazy when their wars took place.
The Taiping Rebellion, also known as the Taiping Civil War or the Taiping Revolution, was a civil war in China between the Manchu-led Qing dynasty and the Hakka-led Taiping Heavenly Kingdom. The conflict lasted for 14 years, from its outbreak in 1850 until the fall of Taiping-controlled Nanjing—which they had renamed "Tianjing"—in 1864. However, the last rebel forces were not defeated until August 1871. Estimates of the conflict's death toll range between 20 and 30 million people, representing 5–10% of China's population.
Thank you for the correction.. heres another that supports your point on death toll. But they havent deleted that from their history.Please do check before throwing the percentage angle again.
How much of the world population fell to Western colonization and what percentage got wiped compared to what Chinese and other lesser known empires had done to their own people. Western world for all its ills has shown some some sort of acceptance of it past brutalities while other civilizations just glorify their pasts as very saintly and peaceful.
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Taiping Rebellion - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
this is just one of the many many brutal times of Chinese history.
We know about colonization and genocides by Western nations but somehow brutalities of Eastern empires are know only to people who like Trivia.Thank you for the correction.. heres another that supports your point on death toll. But they havent deleted that from their history.
Chinese state statements are always super ironic and funny.China suspends arms control and non-proliferation consultations with U.S.
China has decided to suspend talks with the United States on holding a new round of consultations over arms control and non-proliferation, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on Wednesday.
The responsibility for the suspension lies squarely on the U.S. side, said Lin Jian, a spokesperson for the ministry.
Lin said China took the move because the political atmosphere in which the two sides continue to engage in arms control consultations has been undermined by the U.S. side.
For some time, the U.S. has ignored China's resolute opposition and repeated representations, continued to engage in arms sales to China's Taiwan region, and taken a series of negative measures that undermine China's core interests and hurt the mutual trust between the two sides, he explained.
China is willing to maintain communication with the U.S. on international arms control on the basis of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation, said Lin.
But the U.S. must respect China's core interests and create the necessary conditions for dialogue and exchange between the two sides, he added.
China and the U.S. held consultations on arms control and non-proliferation in Washington, D.C., in November 2023.
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China suspends arms control and non-proliferation consultations with U.S.
China has decided to suspend talks with the United States on holding a new round of consultations over arms control and non-proliferation, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on Wednesday.news.cgtn.com
Chinese state statements are always super ironic and funny.![]()