Do you think that the ‘Jeep’ (Chaudhry Nisar) will make the federal government?

[pakistanisgreat]

I think "jeep" will make the government. I think Army is supporting Jeep members for the new government. Ch Nisar might be new prime minister.

 

[Pakistanian]

Nah I think Toyotas gonna form the government.

 

[mmkextreme_1]

I don't think so

 

[Arham_PakFan]

Chaudhry Nisar has a low chance of becoming the prime minister,but that too only if he joins up with whoever wins the election,if it’s not PTI.It is impossible for an independent candidate to form the entire government.

 

[Mian]

I can't see more than 20 Ind this time.and not all of them going to be the one with Jeep symbol.

 

[Minnowbasher]

Nah I think Toyotas gonna form the government.

This cracked me up

 

[hussain.r97]

No, not at all. The vast majority of the jeep candidates have literally no electability. There are hardly 2-3 jeep candidates that have a chance of winning. Jeep candidates may fare better in Punjab Assembly though.

Independents are going to be low this election, don't expect more than 15, maximum 20.

 

[A-1]

Jeep is plan B for NS, they knew they were in trouble after the khatam e nabaut fiasco, so the created a new idenetity.

Chaudhry nisar is a hypocrite of the highest order. Watch them go back to their masters after the election is over

 

[Sean143]

Election or selection?

So guys what do you think, are we actually deciding our leadership or someone else is doing that for us?

Met an intellectual uncle today, he said that probably it would be jeep that will decide which way the pendulum swings.The game has been played very smartly, Chaudhary Nisar and IK are the two pawns.

I also belong to a bureaucratic family, and my siblings and father are also of the same opinion.
Let's see what happens tomorrow.

 

[Mian]

You guys are giving Jeep too much importance trust me Jeep isn't even going to be able to win 5 NA seats. It's PMLN vs PTI all over Punjab very few Ind candidates are expected to win and not all of them are on Jeep

 

[hussain.r97]

I think this jeep block is very overrated right now, they will not get more than 4 NA seats. The vast majority of candidates running on the jeep symbol have no electability, they have no chance of forming a significant electoral block. In general, independents are going to be low this time, not more than 15.

If we're talking about Punjab assembly, that is a different story. Jeep might do better on provincial seats and become king maker in Punjab.

 

[pakistanisgreat]

It think it is selection. There are two people ready for PM, Imran khan and Ch Nisar. Who ever obey the army will become the PM of Pakistan.

As long as you listen to army's order and follow then you can have any position in government.

 

[Mian]

What happened to all the conspiracy theories related to Jeep, Ch Nisar and Hung Parliament?

Look like every recent conspiracy theories about establishment is gone wrong. All those jeep waale candidates lost including their chief Ch Nisar and PTI got good enough numbers to form government with Independent candidates.

BAP or GDA will make PTI will have 140+ in NA

 

[InziRules]

Don't forget PSP doing MQM ka Safaya in Karachi.....

Anyone in Karachi could have told you PSP had no support here. Everyone despised Mustafa Kamal and co. They were the worst of MQM, suddenly dry cleaned and absolved of all crimes.

Can't wait for PSP Dolphins to go to jail for their work in the Baldia fires.

 

[Mian]

Don't forget PSP doing MQM ka Safaya in Karachi.....

Anyone in Karachi could have told you PSP had no support here. Everyone despised Mustafa Kamal and co. They were the worst of MQM, suddenly dry cleaned and absolved of all crimes.

Can't wait for PSP Dolphins to go to jail for their work in the Baldia fires.

True and BAP and GDA also not showing any extra ordinary result they were claimed to be built on Establishment instructions and Mustafa Kamal the new face of estab in Karachi lost too lol

Most of those establishment ke bheje hue electables lost on PTI ticket too like Gondal, Firdos etc

 

[proud_pakistani]

People love making conspiracy theories. It makes them sound all smart.

 

[Mamoon]

There is no doubt that pre-poll rigging took place and like always, the establishment-backed party has prevailed.

However, when the victory is so dominating, it is futile to blame rigging. It is clear that the majority of the people have made their choice, and it is a choice that has to be respected - that is how democracy works.

That is why it was was absurd to see PTI supporters blaming rigging for PML-N’s landslide victory in 2013.

PTI simply did not have a strong case at that time, and the majority did not have faith in their inexperience.

However, after 5 years in KP, where there overall performance was not satisfactory but they were still better than their predecessors, as well as the corruption charges against PML-N, people are now willing to give PTI a chance to see if they can fulfill their manifesto and walk the talk.

As far as PPP is concerned, it has been reduced to a minnow party at the national level - people have no faith in Bilawal in spite of the fact that he carries himself with a lot of dignity and led the most mature campaign.

As long as Zardari is lurking in the shadows, PPP will not be able to gain the trust of the majority.

Now that PTI has its chance that it richly deserved, let’s see what happens. The important issues that they need to tackle are:

- current account deficit
- dollar rates
- forex reserves
- inflation and oil prices
- good Taliban nonsense (Haqqani)
- Balochistan
- disastrous foreign policy

Furthermore, the biggest self-created challenge for Imran would be to ensure that the electables do not revert to their old ways.

Imran put his faith in electables because they know the science of winning elections, and he couldn’t have come into power without them.

The science of winning elections is basically spending huge amounts of money which they recover via corruption when they win elections.

If Imran stops them from doing corruption, they will simply go to another party and Imran will lose his government.

What will happen in that case? By-elections? Then what?

On a side note, although it is something quite minor, I would like to see Imran live up to his promise of converting the PM House into a public institution and Governer houses into public parks and guests houses, a promise that he failed to fulfill with respect to the CM House in KP.

On a final note, a plea to overseas Pakistanis. We were told you that will not return to Pakistan permanently until there is a system of accountability, merit and law & order.

However, now that the dawn of Naya Pakistan is upon us, it is time for you to walk the talk and return to Pakistan. Supporting Naya Pakistan from the comforts of your armchairs in the West is not good enough.

 

[Deewana Mastana]

Yeh jeep nahi cheap hai!

 

[Arham_PakFan]

Looks like the tyres of the jeep were low on air.

 

[KB]

Imran put his faith in electables because they know the science of winning elections, and he couldn’t have come into power without them.

The science of winning elections is basically spending huge amounts of money which they recover via corruption when they win elections.

If Imran stops them from doing corruption, they will simply go to another party and Imran will lose his government.

It is just worth putting the issue of the ‘electables' in some historical context.

’Electables’ is short-hand for those ‘career’ or ‘professional’ politicians that possess financial and social capital that enables them to wield influence in localities. There are a variety of sources upon which their social networks and rootedness in local politics may derive from: economic power based on extensive land holdings; potential to capitalise on social bonds (‘biraderi’); ability to work though pir-murid networks; a ‘proven’ track record in being able to ‘deliver’ and ‘get things done’ on local development; being a member of a dynastic political family.

Such politicians are of course well known for their fickleness. But it is worth stressing that there is a long history of a certain section of politicians oscillating between various parties. We can go back as far as to 1944-46, when many Unionist Party politicians in the Punjab defected to the All-India Muslim League ahead of the crucial 1946 provincial elections.

The AIML in 1946, and the PPP in 1970 and now the PTI in 2018, all broke through with the presence of ‘electables’ among its ranks, despite such presence running sharply in counter to the ideological appeals made by the respective parties. Such instances exhibit a pragmatism in seeking to maximise votes. In addition, electioneering is a costly business, and candidates who can to a significant degree self-finance their campaigns are gladly welcomed. For instance in the debates within the PPP, in the run-up to the 1970 elections, as to whether to accommodate the career politicians, many were conscious that compared with other parties the PPP possessed fewer funds and the entry of ‘electables’ could boost the coffers.

But it also points to something deeper - the weakness of parties as institutions. In all these cases - the AIML in 1946, the PPP in 1970 and now the PTI in 2018 - the party machines can be said to have been weak, with decision making highly centralised and authority flowing less from formal party structures than a charismatic leader - Jinnah, Bhutto and now Imran Khan. As in 1946 or 1970, with the AIML and the PPP, the progress a politician can make within the three major parties today depends on proximity and patronage of the top leadership. On the local level party infrastructure remains weak. Hence the reliance on local ‘electables’ rather than doing the much harder work of institutionalising popular enthusiasm and support by building firm organisational foundations stretching all the way to the local level.

The presence of these ‘careerists’ with questionable loyalty to the cause, has historically caused issues eventually as it induces factionalism. The ML disintegrated soon after independence. The PPP in the 1970s also weakened and many abandoned the party. Those who clamber opportunistically on board are just as likely to jump off when a different wind begins to blow, as the PML-N has just witnessed.

As a final point, it should also be stressed that this is not to say that Pakistani politics revolves simply around local issues and local candidates. There is in fact a complex interplay of the local and the national. It is not simply a top down relationship. Many candidates switch parties due to ‘pressures from below’. The fact that most still strive to get a ticket from a party rather than running as independents to later join whoever wins, also indicates that the party ‘brand’ has purchase in localities.

This interplay of factors is revealed by studies of the 1946 and 1970 elections in the Punjab. In the 1946 provincial elections, historian Ian Talbot writes that “The politics of biraderi and local power were by no means destroyed in 1946, but they had to compete, often unsuccessfully, with the Muslim League’s ideological appeals.” Even more strikingly, it is clear that in the 1970 elections in West Pakistan, the Pakistan People’s Party inspired countless individuals to vote with their conscience. Phillip Jones, in his outstanding work on the rise of the PPP, provided a detailed study of the 1970 elections in the Punjab, studying elections results at the level of polling stations. Whilst of course local ties mattered, he also pointed clearly to “the ‘horizontal’ character of the pro-PPP vote patterns in the 1970 elections…the PPP vote largely represented a rejection of traditional (parochial or vertical) loyalties in reference for perceived economic and social interests, as articulated in the PPP programme.” His conclusion based on solid research was emphatic: “in fifty-four (or 65.9 per cent) of eighty-two NA constituencies in Punjab, majorities or near-majorities rejected parochial considerations and voted for a party that promised to break open elite institutions and to broaden access to education, medical care, commercial enterprise, industrial management, land ownership and political decision-making. The vote for the PPP was a vote for a levelling of hierarchical institutions and privileged behaviour. It was a vote against subjecthood in a static universe and a vote for participating citizenship in a dynamic one.”

It is also likely that the PTI breakthrough rested on a combination of the presence of the 'electables' with local clout and genuine popular support and enthusiasm.

 

[Mian]

It is just worth putting the issue of the ‘electables' in some historical context.

’Electables’ is short-hand for those ‘career’ or ‘professional’ politicians that possess financial and social capital that enables them to wield influence in localities. There are a variety of sources upon which their social networks and rootedness in local politics may derive from: economic power based on extensive land holdings; potential to capitalise on social bonds (‘biraderi’); ability to work though pir-murid networks; a ‘proven’ track record in being able to ‘deliver’ and ‘get things done’ on local development; being a member of a dynastic political family.

Such politicians are of course well known for their fickleness. But it is worth stressing that there is a long history of a certain section of politicians oscillating between various parties. We can go back as far as to 1944-46, when many Unionist Party politicians in the Punjab defected to the All-India Muslim League ahead of the crucial 1946 provincial elections.

The AIML in 1946, and the PPP in 1970 and now the PTI in 2018, all broke through with the presence of ‘electables’ among its ranks, despite such presence running sharply in counter to the ideological appeals made by the respective parties. Such instances exhibit a pragmatism in seeking to maximise votes. In addition, electioneering is a costly business, and candidates who can to a significant degree self-finance their campaigns are gladly welcomed. For instance in the debates within the PPP, in the run-up to the 1970 elections, as to whether to accommodate the career politicians, many were conscious that compared with other parties the PPP possessed fewer funds and the entry of ‘electables’ could boost the coffers.

But it also points to something deeper - the weakness of parties as institutions. In all these cases - the AIML in 1946, the PPP in 1970 and now the PTI in 2018 - the party machines can be said to have been weak, with decision making highly centralised and authority flowing less from formal party structures than a charismatic leader - Jinnah, Bhutto and now Imran Khan. As in 1946 or 1970, with the AIML and the PPP, the progress a politician can make within the three major parties today depends on proximity and patronage of the top leadership. On the local level party infrastructure remains weak. Hence the reliance on local ‘electables’ rather than doing the much harder work of institutionalising popular enthusiasm and support by building firm organisational foundations stretching all the way to the local level.

The presence of these ‘careerists’ with questionable loyalty to the cause, has historically caused issues eventually as it induces factionalism. The ML disintegrated soon after independence. The PPP in the 1970s also weakened and many abandoned the party. Those who clamber opportunistically on board are just as likely to jump off when a different wind begins to blow, as the PML-N has just witnessed.

As a final point, it should also be stressed that this is not to say that Pakistani politics revolves simply around local issues and local candidates. There is in fact a complex interplay of the local and the national. It is not simply a top down relationship. Many candidates switch parties due to ‘pressures from below’. The fact that most still strive to get a ticket from a party rather than running as independents to later join whoever wins, also indicates that the party ‘brand’ has purchase in localities.

This interplay of factors is revealed by studies of the 1946 and 1970 elections in the Punjab. In the 1946 provincial elections, historian Ian Talbot writes that “The politics of biraderi and local power were by no means destroyed in 1946, but they had to compete, often unsuccessfully, with the Muslim League’s ideological appeals.” Even more strikingly, it is clear that in the 1970 elections in West Pakistan, the Pakistan People’s Party inspired countless individuals to vote with their conscience. Phillip Jones, in his outstanding work on the rise of the PPP, provided a detailed study of the 1970 elections in the Punjab, studying elections results at the level of polling stations. Whilst of course local ties mattered, he also pointed clearly to “the ‘horizontal’ character of the pro-PPP vote patterns in the 1970 elections…the PPP vote largely represented a rejection of traditional (parochial or vertical) loyalties in reference for perceived economic and social interests, as articulated in the PPP programme.” His conclusion based on solid research was emphatic: “in fifty-four (or 65.9 per cent) of eighty-two NA constituencies in Punjab, majorities or near-majorities rejected parochial considerations and voted for a party that promised to break open elite institutions and to broaden access to education, medical care, commercial enterprise, industrial management, land ownership and political decision-making. The vote for the PPP was a vote for a levelling of hierarchical institutions and privileged behaviour. It was a vote against subjecthood in a static universe and a vote for participating citizenship in a dynamic one.”

It is also likely that the PTI breakthrough rested on a combination of the presence of the 'electables' with local clout and genuine popular support and enthusiasm.

top quality post brother!

 

[Bewal Express]

He missed the boat, he can get lost.

 

[Mian]

He missed the boat, he can get lost.

SMQ lost provincial seat, JKT disqualified, Sarwar is in senate and Aleem Khan is on NAB hit list guess who else had the best opportunity to be in the race for Punjab CMship if he had joined PTI instead of listening to his big ego. Ch Nisar you missed the right train and a chance to write your name in history

 

[Waseem]

So guys what do you think, are we actually deciding our leadership or someone else is doing that for us?

Met an intellectual uncle today, he said that probably it would be jeep that will decide which way the pendulum swings.The game has been played very smartly, Chaudhary Nisar and IK are the two pawns.

I also belong to a bureaucratic family, and my siblings and father are also of the same opinion.
Let's see what happens tomorrow.

Well those intellectual uncles would be quite embarrassed now that THE Jeep has flopped. CH Nisar the New Prime Minister couldn't even win his own seat.

PSP and TLP were apparently also supported by these forces and they couldn't win any seats

No doubt a lot of things happen in our politics and it's not all black & white but all our intellectual uncles think everything is just a conspiracy in our country.