Ghabrana nahi hai, but coronavirus will spread further, cautions PM Imran Khan in address to nation

[Abdullah719]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Prime Minister Of Pakistan Imran Khan Address To Nation (17.03.20)<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/PrimeMinisterImranKhan?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#PrimeMinisterImranKhan</a> <a href="https://t.co/FLKb4818fQ">https://t.co/FLKb4818fQ</a></p>— Prime Minister's Office, Pakistan (@PakPMO) <a href="https://twitter.com/PakPMO/status/1239953000698961924?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 17, 2020</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<iframe src="https://www.facebook.com/plugins/video.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2FPTIOfficial%2Fvideos%2F250049496014155%2F&show_text=1&width=560" width="560" height="426" style="borderne;overflow:hidden" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowTransparency="true" allow="encrypted-media" allowFullScreen="true"></iframe>

 

[MenInG]

Prime Minister Imran Khan urged the public not to panic as the number of cases of novel coronavirus rise.

"Ghabrana nahi hai (you shouldn't panic)," the premier said in his address to the nation, adding that the public should take precautions to prevent the virus from spreading.

He also urged religious scholars to guide the people in coping with the challenge.

https://www.dawn.com/live-blog/

 

[Abdullah719]

Transcript from https://twitter.com/PTIofficial:

My Pakistanis today I want to talk to you all about #COVID19 because this is something I feel is creating lots of hysteria among our people.

On 15th January 2020 we decided to take measures regarding #covid19 because it was spreading fast in China & it was only a matter of time it would reach Pakistan.

First of all let me tell you what is #covid19
It’s a virus that is a form of flu but it spreads really fast.

But #covid19 is not something ultimately fatal. 97% of the people having this virus do recover. Fatality rate is less than 5% but the way it i spreading, like it was viral in China, 1 lac people getting affected means a lot of deaths even if 3-5% people die.

Since 15th January, we started off strict screening on Airports. First case in Pakistan was diagnosed on 26th Feb.

We called a NSC meeting when Pakistan had 20 cases declared. We studied responses to #covid19 around the world.

We studied responses of Italy who didn’t take precautions, now under lockdown, UK’s response is different. US at first didn’t go strict but now is locking down cities.

We were also exploring options to lock down cities when 20 cases were reported. But Pakistan’s economy is not that strong. We’re still in a recovery phase. We could not afford to lock down cities entirely. So we closed down stadiums, schools & universities etc.

We have also formed a National Coordination Committee, we have activated NDMA that caters to floods, earthquake victims etc and gave funds to it for procuring necessary equipment to combat #covid19

We figured we had masks but what is essential is ventilators. We had to be prepared in case the situation deteriorates and severity of cases increases. We realized we will need more & more ventilators. So we procured that.

In addition to the NCC, we have formed an economic committee to gauge the impact of this virus on our economy since it will spread in Pakistan just as it did all over the world & will create crisis like it has all over the world.

Airline industry, ban on banquet halls etc will create economic down-turn but what I am most worried about is induced inflation due to those who hoard items like sugar, wheat etc. Those hoarding resources in godowns will face a strong reaction from us.

I want to ask all stakeholders to join hands. This war against Corona is a collective war of entire humankind. The govt cannot do it alone. I urge you all to avoid public gatherings where a number of people come together.

Another thing, avoid shaking hands. Because this virus is highly contagious and can spread from human to human contact. When you shake hands, this virus can transfer and if you bring contaminated hands in contact with face, eyes, mouth, it can affect you.

Lastly, I want to tell my nation:

گھبرانا نہیں ہے

We are all Muslims, we believe in ultimate power of Allah. But care is mandatory. There’s a Hadith that if you’re afraid of your camel running away, you don’t just pray to Allah, you take a precaution by tying it somewhere first.

Our Prophet PBUH has taught us that cleanliness is half faith. So take all the prescribed precautions. Take care of hygiene, avoid large gatherings.

When the virus had reached Iran, a lot of pilgrims were coming back to Pakistan from there. Balochistan govt despite limited resources, isolated them & now they’re being sent back to respective provinces. I commend Balochistan govt for stepping up in tough time.

All my Pakistanis who are outside of Pakistan. Please take care of yourselves. If you have travelled, act responsibly & go for self-quarantine for at least 14 days because the virus starts showing symptoms after 8-14 days.

All the Pakistanis stuck in other countries, I totally understand the gravity of your problems. I have directed all embassies to step up & facilitate you.

Last but not the least, all the Pakistani students stuck in Wuhan or anywhere else in China. Repatriating you with your loved ones is my utmost priority once we take control, but for now, you are safe in China as China has controlled it to a great extent.

Our President [MENTION=135320]Arif[/MENTION]Alvi is in China on an official visit after the situation becoming safe & controlled. We’ll be asking China for knowledge sharing to cater this virus in Pakistan just as China catered to it. In Sha Allah, we will be out of this crisis soon.

All the doctors, nurses and other paramedic staff, I commend your efforts during these testing times.
Be assured, whatever equipment you need to contain and cure #covid19 cases, Gov of Pakistan stands by you & we’ll procure whatever you need & deem necessary.

 

[leg-side-flick]

Why doesn't he evacuate Pakistanis in China and other places and then quarantine them ?

 

[Syed1]

Why doesn't he evacuate Pakistanis in China and other places and then quarantine them ?

We are already getting 6000+ pilgrims from Iran half of whom are expected to be carrying it. Those are in quarantine or will be when they arrive. That is already a massive strain on the health system, then you want him to bring back the 30k Pakistani students in China?

Soon China will be the safest place against Corona because the disease is dying out there, while it is rapidly exploding in the rest of the world. I see no need to bring back the students.

 

[kk1992]

SHUT DOWN.

I understand most people survive on daily wages but Sindh has to be completely shut down for couple of weeks.

The only way to prevent it from spreading.

 

[leg-side-flick]

We are already getting 6000+ pilgrims from Iran half of whom are expected to be carrying it. Those are in quarantine or will be when they arrive. That is already a massive strain on the health system, then you want him to bring back the 30k Pakistani students in China?

Soon China will be the safest place against Corona because the disease is dying out there, while it is rapidly exploding in the rest of the world. I see no need to bring back the students.

Has any Pakistani died in China because of covid?

 

[leg-side-flick]

Has any Pakistani died in China because of covid?

If not, then it's okay, because data will suggest they are better off there now

 

[Mueez]

An honest speech.

Believe me there are leaders from more developed countries who couldn’t talk like IK.

He has made his thoughts clear.

Well done.

 

[Jin Chacha]

SHUT DOWN.

I understand most people survive on daily wages but Sindh has to be completely shut down for couple of weeks.

The only way to prevent it from spreading.

I know what you are saying is right but to be honest we are already past the point of no return. Even if they shut things down officially, it would mean very little in practical terms. Most people are just not aware/serious/literate enough to take a quarantine seriously and even now are treating the current situation as a holiday. The streets of Karachi are not deserted like the rest of the world and an official shutdown is unlikely to change that unless they do something extreme like calling in the army and imposing a curfew. It is more of a cultural issue. Local transmission has already started and it is now almost certain that the virus will spread exponentially. Our only hope now is the low mortality rate. Even IK seemed resigned to this and while the speech was honest and frank , it wasn't something that inspired a lot of confidence.

 

[BreadPakoda]

I know what you are saying is right but to be honest we are already past the point of no return. Even if they shut things down officially, it would mean very little in practical terms. Most people are just not aware/serious/literate enough to take a quarantine seriously and even now are treating the current situation as a holiday. The streets of Karachi are not deserted like the rest of the world and an official shutdown is unlikely to change that unless they do something extreme like calling in the army and imposing a curfew. It is more of a cultural issue. Local transmission has already started and it is now almost certain that the virus will spread exponentially. Our only hope now is the low mortality rate. Even IK seemed resigned to this and while the speech was honest and frank , it wasn't something that inspired a lot of confidence.

Then they need to be forced to stay at their homes. Flatten the curve!

 

[Jin Chacha]

Then they need to be forced to stay at their homes. Flatten the curve!

I wish that could happen. But I don't see much appetite for strong action either among the people or in the govt. And the IK speech pretty much ruled out a shutdown.

 

[kk1992]

I wish that could happen. But I don't see much appetite for strong action either among the people or in the govt. And the IK speech pretty much ruled out a shutdown.

Exactly, one of the worse speech in crisis.

Call it a curfew or whatever you want to call it.

14 million people in Karachi, virus won't stop infecting unless everyone is infected.

I guess as more people (sad to say it) start dropping, will probably force them to shut it down, aka mandatory curfew.

 

[BreadPakoda]

I wish that could happen. But I don't see much appetite for strong action either among the people or in the govt. And the IK speech pretty much ruled out a shutdown.

That's unfortunate. Italy has a proper shutdown now but the situation they are in currently could have been avoided by being more proactive and firm. Other countries must learn from Italy's mistakes.

 

[shah_1]

Pakistan students are lucky that they are in China.

 

[sensible-indian-fan]

So what exactly is Pakistan's plan?

No shut down and let deaths pile up in 1000s or 10,000s?

And one poster above finds this inspiring?

Am I missing anything lol

 

[amvbfm]

I know what you are saying is right but to be honest we are already past the point of no return. Even if they shut things down officially, it would mean very little in practical terms. Most people are just not aware/serious/literate enough to take a quarantine seriously and even now are treating the current situation as a holiday. The streets of Karachi are not deserted like the rest of the world and an official shutdown is unlikely to change that unless they do something extreme like calling in the army and imposing a curfew. It is more of a cultural issue. Local transmission has already started and it is now almost certain that the virus will spread exponentially. Our only hope now is the low mortality rate. Even IK seemed resigned to this and while the speech was honest and frank , it wasn't something that inspired a lot of confidence.

I will disagree that we are beyond redemption in the case of a lockdown. We still might be able to limit the spread and cut down the losses. But yes the economic fallout woulf be massive and the poorest segments of the society will suffer the most.

We had two options. Go for a lockdown and save lives but let the economy go bust and then perhaps lose more in the crisis that followed. Or do nothing, let the disease take its course and just hope for the best. The second option will undoubtedly result in the loss of a lot more lives and for all we know it may well lead to a recession that we are trying to avoid. Also again the poorest will face the brunt of it.

The PM's speech makes it clear that we've taken our decision and it is the second one. It is perhaps the easier and more fatalistic one.

I sincerely hope this is not an admission of defeat. That there sound reasons behind this decision other than the mere 3% mortality rate (which also might not hold for our country) and the fact that the other option seems more daunting at present. That the top leadership is privy to studies/simulations estimating probable losses and there are some concrete steps planned to deal with the possible scenarios that will emerge from here onwards. I also sincerely hope that we realize the gravity of this decision and how passing time will probably make it our final one as a lockdown much later might not be of much use and will be even more economically grievous.

Personally, I don't agree with this decision but I hope I am totally wrong and hope and pray every one remains safe during this crisis and we overcome it with minimal losses.

 

[Bewal Express]

So what exactly is Pakistan's plan?

No shut down and let deaths pile up in 1000s or 10,000s?

And one poster above finds this inspiring?

Am I missing anything lol

Logically a shutdown should be considered but trying to control PK's is like to trying heard cats. I was on the phone to a family friend in Bewal last week and he said without hesitation it's a hoax. Our Maulvis have big part to play, and if they educate and energise the population, IA we will get through it.

 

[AdamM97]

Logically a shutdown should be considered but trying to control PK's is like to trying heard cats. I was on the phone to a family friend in Bewal last week and he said without hesitation it's a hoax. Our Maulvis have big part to play, and if they educate and energise the population, IA we will get through it.

If the Maulvis have it their way, Pakistan will become another Iran and won’t be able to contain COVID19

Heard that Usman Buzdar has assured the ulema that friday prayers will continue. So irresponsible.

 

[Minnowbasher]

So what exactly is Pakistan's plan?

No shut down and let deaths pile up in 1000s or 10,000s?

And one poster above finds this inspiring?

Am I missing anything lol

Pakistan has 200 cases so far
UK has 2000
No shut down in UK yet Pakistan are expected to shut down after just 200 cases.
Behave

 

[Sirris]

SHUT DOWN.

I understand most people survive on daily wages but Sindh has to be completely shut down for couple of weeks.

The only way to prevent it from spreading.

This is a dumb solution for Pakistan at the current point. It is like chopping off both of your hands due to a tumor in your tiny finger. First chop off the tiny finger and see if the tumor spreads further or not.

The lockdown solution is being used in European countries where with open borders people from all parts of Europe come in for work, holidays and studies. There is a big mixing of the population on all levels. Most countries are very small in compared to Pakistan and heavily urbanized which further helps the virus. Lockdown makes sense for a small country like Denmark but not for Pakistan.

In Pakistan it is still not too late to manage without a lock down

I know the sensitivity of Shia sunni issue. But the situation requires us to be blunt. The big source of virus is Shia pilgirams. Hence Shia community needs to be on the guard, honest and corporate. Every one knows if he or his relative went to Iran recently or not. There should be a nation wide analysis of regions which are Shia dominated and those areas need to be strongly tested and movements in those areas need to be restricted. Since test kits and resources are limited first those who show symptoms and have a history of Iran travel or a relative.

Second most important thing right now is to shut down flights from US, Canada, Europe and the golf region. Or have proper measures where those who come in are put under quarantine.

Pakistan is a big country with large rural population. Most of them are untouched by the virus for now. Shutting down the we country is nonsense and the damage isn't worth it. Though certain parts of big cities like Karachi, Lahore and Peshawar can be put in a lockdown if a big concentration of virus on those areas seem to pop up.

Pakistans biggest problem is the lack of education and the stubbornness of the population.

Don't copy Europe's strategy in hopes of a magical solution. Mobilize the army and act with a strategy.

 

[sensible-indian-fan]

Logically a shutdown should be considered but trying to control PK's is like to trying heard cats. I was on the phone to a family friend in Bewal last week and he said without hesitation it's a hoax. Our Maulvis have big part to play, and if they educate and energise the population, IA we will get through it.

Yeah things can be challenging.

Yeah but this is the time for stringent measures.

Leaders are leaders for a reason. They have to do what's tough even if its bitter.

If he doesn't do it and people die left, right and centre (with breadwinners among them), it would be crazy.

 

[sensible-indian-fan]

Pakistan has 200 cases so far
UK has 2000
No shut down in UK yet Pakistan are expected to shut down after just 200 cases.
Behave

Did you just ask me to behave?

 

[sensible-indian-fan]

This is a dumb solution for Pakistan at the current point. It is like chopping off both of your hands due to a tumor in your tiny finger. First chop off the tiny finger and see if the tumor spreads further or not.

The lockdown solution is being used in European countries where with open borders people from all parts of Europe come in for work, holidays and studies. There is a big mixing of the population on all levels. Most countries are very small in compared to Pakistan and heavily urbanized which further helps the virus. Lockdown makes sense for a small country like Denmark but not for Pakistan.

In Pakistan it is still not too late to manage without a lock down

I know the sensitivity of Shia sunni issue. But the situation requires us to be blunt. The big source of virus is Shia pilgirams. Hence Shia community needs to be on the guard, honest and corporate. Every one knows if he or his relative went to Iran recently or not. There should be a nation wide analysis of regions which are Shia dominated and those areas need to be strongly tested and movements in those areas need to be restricted. Since test kits and resources are limited first those who show symptoms and have a history of Iran travel or a relative.

Second most important thing right now is to shut down flights from US, Canada, Europe and the golf region. Or have proper measures where those who come in are put under quarantine.

Pakistan is a big country with large rural population. Most of them are untouched by the virus for now. Shutting down the we country is nonsense and the damage isn't worth it. Though certain parts of big cities like Karachi, Lahore and Peshawar can be put in a lockdown if a big concentration of virus on those areas seem to pop up.

Pakistans biggest problem is the lack of education and the stubbornness of the population.

Don't copy Europe's strategy in hopes of a magical solution. Mobilize the army and act with a strategy.

How many deaths do you predict after all is said and done?

Economy wise, how much damage do you predict?

I am curious.

 

[Savak]

Shutting down is not a feasible long term solution. Need to find a cure and develop that antidote

 

[sensible-indian-fan]

You can't have a complete shut down.

Neither can you have the status quo.

Its about a blend tweaking it for your unique circumstances.

I have no idea exactly what Pakistan govt is doing but people (who disagree) seem to be fixated over complete shutdown.

 

[sensible-indian-fan]

This is a dumb solution for Pakistan at the current point. It is like chopping off both of your hands due to a tumor in your tiny finger. First chop off the tiny finger and see if the tumor spreads further or not.

The lockdown solution is being used in European countries where with open borders people from all parts of Europe come in for work, holidays and studies. There is a big mixing of the population on all levels. Most countries are very small in compared to Pakistan and heavily urbanized which further helps the virus. Lockdown makes sense for a small country like Denmark but not for Pakistan.

In Pakistan it is still not too late to manage without a lock down

I know the sensitivity of Shia sunni issue. But the situation requires us to be blunt. The big source of virus is Shia pilgirams. Hence Shia community needs to be on the guard, honest and corporate. Every one knows if he or his relative went to Iran recently or not. There should be a nation wide analysis of regions which are Shia dominated and those areas need to be strongly tested and movements in those areas need to be restricted. Since test kits and resources are limited first those who show symptoms and have a history of Iran travel or a relative.

Second most important thing right now is to shut down flights from US, Canada, Europe and the golf region. Or have proper measures where those who come in are put under quarantine.

Pakistan is a big country with large rural population. Most of them are untouched by the virus for now. Shutting down the we country is nonsense and the damage isn't worth it. Though certain parts of big cities like Karachi, Lahore and Peshawar can be put in a lockdown if a big concentration of virus on those areas seem to pop up.

Pakistans biggest problem is the lack of education and the stubbornness of the population.

Don't copy Europe's strategy in hopes of a magical solution. Mobilize the army and act with a strategy.

How many deaths do you predict after all is said and done?

Economy wise, how much damage do you predict?

I am curious.

Ok I misread your post.

My bad.

I agree.

----

Did Pakistani shut down all foreign flights and all danger areas?

 

[Syed1]

I think I have posted this five times already but no harm in saying it again.


The recent spike in cases in Pakistan is all from Shia pilgrims who were in quarantine at Taftan border crossing and then quarantined in their respective provinces. So they went from quarantine to quarantine, with less chance of infecting the general population. The average seems to be about half of the pilgrims have it, so in total about 7000 pilgrims will be shifted to quarantine and tested in the next few days and this will spike Pakistan's overall number BUT it should be noted that these people haven't had a chance to mingle with the general population and thus spread the virus. So even if the number of effected goes to 3000-4000 I'll not be fazed.


The danger is the 50 odd cases we have that aren't Iran return who arrived via airports, now they have had a chance to mingle since they returned and possibly infected others. If this number of 50 odd starts rising, then be concerned very concerned. I have old parents (like most of us here) I fear for them.

 

[Bewal Express]

Yeah things can be challenging.

Yeah but this is the time for stringent measures.

Leaders are leaders for a reason. They have to do what's tough even if its bitter.

If he doesn't do it and people die left, right and centre (with breadwinners among them), it would be crazy.

It's incredibly tough either way.

 

[sensible-indian-fan]

I think I have posted this five times already but no harm in saying it again.


The recent spike in cases in Pakistan is all from Shia pilgrims who were in quarantine at Taftan border crossing and then quarantined in their respective provinces. So they went from quarantine to quarantine, with less chance of infecting the general population. The average seems to be about half of the pilgrims have it, so in total about 7000 pilgrims will be shifted to quarantine and tested in the next few days and this will spike Pakistan's overall number BUT it should be noted that these people haven't had a chance to mingle with the general population and thus spread the virus. So even if the number of effected goes to 3000-4000 I'll not be fazed.


The danger is the 50 odd cases we have that aren't Iran return who arrived via airports, now they have had a chance to mingle since they returned and possibly infected others. If this number of 50 odd starts rising, then be concerned very concerned. I have old parents (like most of us here) I fear for them.

Interesting point.

But surely news of spread and where they come from can be tracked if numbers shoot up tom.

Out of these 250 odd cases, 200 are these pilgrims and 50 are unaccounted?

 

[Bewal Express]

If the Maulvis have it their way, Pakistan will become another Iran and won’t be able to contain COVID19

Heard that Usman Buzdar has assured the ulema that friday prayers will continue. So irresponsible.

I think the Maulvis need to be called in and persuaded to do the right thing. But being dictatorial towards some of these idiots will make hero's of them. Easy easy catchy monkey. Our Imam gave the go ahead not to have Jumma until things clear up.

 

[UP]

Pakistani awaam is full of trolls and not serious/literate enough. Unless it creates a great havoc, they will keep trolling.

Keeping Pakistani awaam in a lockdown wont work unless you call Army in.

The dreaded molvis have to play a positive part in this episode. But they will be too busy blaming Amreeka.

 

[The_KING]

Couldn't Shias have gone some other time for their pilgrim?

 

[kk1992]

How many deaths do you predict after all is said and done?

Economy wise, how much damage do you predict?

I am curious.

Can't avoid economic ramification.

Virus will spread.

Question for government to ask, economically suffer now and safe lives or suffer later and loose more lives.

 

[Cpt. Rishwat]

Can't avoid economic ramification.

Virus will spread.

Question for government to ask, economically suffer now and safe lives or suffer later and loose more lives.

If you want to save lives, then you will have to spend a lot of money. The countries that are shutting down are ploughing £billions into the economy to keep it afloat. Do you seriously believe Pakistan is one of those countries that can afford to do that?

 

[kk1992]

If you want to save lives, then you will have to spend a lot of money. The countries that are shutting down are ploughing £billions into the economy to keep it afloat. Do you seriously believe Pakistan is one of those countries that can afford to do that?

Pakistan certainly can't afford to, sad reality. But, Pakistan will be forced to.

number of cases in Pakistan will spike.

 

[kk1992]

This is a dumb solution for Pakistan at the current point. It is like chopping off both of your hands due to a tumor in your tiny finger. First chop off the tiny finger and see if the tumor spreads further or not.

The lockdown solution is being used in European countries where with open borders people from all parts of Europe come in for work, holidays and studies. There is a big mixing of the population on all levels. Most countries are very small in compared to Pakistan and heavily urbanized which further helps the virus. Lockdown makes sense for a small country like Denmark but not for Pakistan.

In Pakistan it is still not too late to manage without a lock down

I know the sensitivity of Shia sunni issue. But the situation requires us to be blunt. The big source of virus is Shia pilgirams. Hence Shia community needs to be on the guard, honest and corporate. Every one knows if he or his relative went to Iran recently or not. There should be a nation wide analysis of regions which are Shia dominated and those areas need to be strongly tested and movements in those areas need to be restricted. Since test kits and resources are limited first those who show symptoms and have a history of Iran travel or a relative.

Second most important thing right now is to shut down flights from US, Canada, Europe and the golf region. Or have proper measures where those who come in are put under quarantine.

Pakistan is a big country with large rural population. Most of them are untouched by the virus for now. Shutting down the we country is nonsense and the damage isn't worth it. Though certain parts of big cities like Karachi, Lahore and Peshawar can be put in a lockdown if a big concentration of virus on those areas seem to pop up.

Pakistans biggest problem is the lack of education and the stubbornness of the population.

Don't copy Europe's strategy in hopes of a magical solution. Mobilize the army and act with a strategy.

You have answered it yourself.

You can't not stop it from spreading.

Go outside, observe for 5 mins, count how many people have shaken hands and hugged.

 

[sjahmed23]

Pakistan is probably 2-3 weeks behind US and 4-5 months behind Italy and Iran. I fear for the worst. I don't think it's health care system can handle that many cases.

 

[Cpt. Rishwat]

You have answered it yourself.

You can't not stop it from spreading.

Go outside, observe for 5 mins, count how many people have shaken hands and hugged.

You are 100% correct here. Pakistanis are just not wired to maintain social distance like we do in the west. For their sake we can only hope the herd immunity works out well.

 

[Sirris]

I think I have posted this five times already but no harm in saying it again.


The recent spike in cases in Pakistan is all from Shia pilgrims who were in quarantine at Taftan border crossing and then quarantined in their respective provinces. So they went from quarantine to quarantine, with less chance of infecting the general population. The average seems to be about half of the pilgrims have it, so in total about 7000 pilgrims will be shifted to quarantine and tested in the next few days and this will spike Pakistan's overall number BUT it should be noted that these people haven't had a chance to mingle with the general population and thus spread the virus. So even if the number of effected goes to 3000-4000 I'll not be fazed.


The danger is the 50 odd cases we have that aren't Iran return who arrived via airports, now they have had a chance to mingle since they returned and possibly infected others. If this number of 50 odd starts rising, then be concerned very concerned. I have old parents (like most of us here) I fear for them.

Source?

Quarantine at the Taftan border is a great move but I doubt we reacted on time due to multiple reasons. First of all Iran itself downplayed the spread of virus in its country. It was only when the virus had spread across every level of its society that they started to get serious. It has the 3rd highest cases in the world. With 195 cases it has the highest diagnosed cases per million for a non-european country and 5th highest ratio in the world. With a population of 81 million that's a very dire situation. I also doubt that they are testing fast enough. Hence I fear that many pilgrim were able to enter pakistan infected and there was nothing one could do about it due to lack of proper information.

When did Pakistan start to quarantine the Shia pilgrims? How many pilgrims from Iran used to come in Pakistan on an average day?

Regarding those who arrived via airpots. Is there a database where the name of all passenger who came to Pakistan from the West and Golf region can be accessed and the people contacted to check if they had developed any symptoms.

 

[Sirris]

You have answered it yourself.

You can't not stop it from spreading.

Go outside, observe for 5 mins, count how many people have shaken hands and hugged.

Please be specific!

The part you bolded just highlights the fact that it would be difficult to get the people to behave as we want but it doesn't justify a lock down in any way.

The virus doesn't appear because people are hugging and hand shaking. It spreads if a person infected comes in close contact with a person not infected and transmits it. Even if 10'000 people in Pakistan are infected right now. That's a ratio of 50 cases per 1 million. It means 1 in 500'000 has it. In Italy at least 1 in 1000 has it. The mobility of an average citizen is strongly limited in Pakistan hence the virus can not spread through out the population like a wild fire. We know the profile of those who are most likely to carry the virus. All our efforts are needed to find them isolate them and their relatives. And if it have to be then lock down the area in their radius of movement.

The dynamics at play in Pakistan are totally different than those in Europe. I highlighted them here: http://www.pakpassion.net/ppforum/s...no-need-to-panic-yet!&p=10700767#post10700767

You can't lock down a country of 200 million people who are spread out on a large area without huge resources. The resources necessary to track down the infected right now are much less than the one needed to control a herd of 200 million.

Stop spreading hopelessness and justify your position.

 

[Pakistanian]

Pakistan must immediately increase its medical equipment inventory by massive proportions, they need millions of ventilators, IVs, hospital beds, heart monitors, x-rays, testing kits etc Most of the people who die are dying from the pneumonia, without enough ventilators people are going to die in large numbers, they should've been stockpiling these medical equipment in the event of a pandemic or natural disaster.

 

[kk1992]

Please be specific!

The part you bolded just highlights the fact that it would be difficult to get the people to behave as we want but it doesn't justify a lock down in any way.

The virus doesn't appear because people are hugging and hand shaking. It spreads if a person infected comes in close contact with a person not infected and transmits it. Even if 10'000 people in Pakistan are infected right now. That's a ratio of 50 cases per 1 million. It means 1 in 500'000 has it. In Italy at least 1 in 1000 has it. The mobility of an average citizen is strongly limited in Pakistan hence the virus can not spread through out the population like a wild fire. We know the profile of those who are most likely to carry the virus. All our efforts are needed to find them isolate them and their relatives. And if it have to be then lock down the area in their radius of movement.

The dynamics at play in Pakistan are totally different than those in Europe. I highlighted them here: http://www.pakpassion.net/ppforum/s...no-need-to-panic-yet!&p=10700767#post10700767

You can't lock down a country of 200 million people who are spread out on a large area without huge resources. The resources necessary to track down the infected right now are much less than the one needed to control a herd of 200 million.

Stop spreading hopelessness and justify your position.

I do not believe you understand the concept of social distancing.

quote from you lengthy essay.

Social distancing doesn't mean don't shake hands

 

[Sirris]

I do not believe you understand the concept of social distancing.

Social distancing doesn't mean don't shake hands

quote from you lengthy essay.

Meh, you are being such a lawyer. It should have been worded this way to be precise:

Social distancing doesn't JUST mean don't shake hands

The context should have made it clear as I further explain what's the most important part of social distancing. You can not shake hands and still get infected if you don't respect the necessary distance while you could shake hands and not get infected if you wash your hands immediately afterwards.

Again I need an explanation from you why you think in the current situation, where we have 1 in 500'000 infected, locking down an area of 881,913 km² with a population of 200 million is more reasonable than locking down specific areas with a strategic intent to do heavy testing there of people with a specific profile.

 

[Sirris]

I do not believe you understand the concept of social distancing.

Social distancing doesn't mean don't shake hands

quote from you lengthy essay.

Meh, you are being such a lawyer. It should have been worded this way to be precise:

Social distancing doesn't JUST mean don't shake hands

The context should have made it clear as I further explain what's the most important part of social distancing. You can not shake hands and still get infected if you don't respect the necessary distance while you could shake hands and not get infected if you wash your hands immediately afterwards.

Again I need an explanation from you why you think in the current situation, where we have 1 in 500'000 infected, locking down an area of 881,913 km² with a population of 200 million is more reasonable than locking down specific areas with a strategic intent to do heavy testing there of people with a specific profile.

 

[kk1992]

1 <---- You are here.
3
9
27
81
243
729
2,187
6,561
19,683
59,046
177,147
531,441
1,594,323 <--- Avoidable victims.

Adhere to social distance.

Takes 4-5 days to show symptoms.

 

[saeedhk]

Mosques in Bahrain, Kuwait, the UAE, Singapore, Hong Kong and Saudi Arabia have been shut.

Like always, Mullahs are keep the country hostage again. They have asked the government to not shut down mosques. When will we find a leader who could take these termites to task.

 

[chazam]

What’s Imran doing for ordinary Pakistanis I saw in a news the quarantine camps of Pakistan are in shambles whereas Indians have better facilities... we should ask government to improve conditions

 

[sjahmed23]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/m.jpos...eate-Coronavirus-spread-is-slowing-621145/amp

 

[kk1992]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/m.jpos...eate-Coronavirus-spread-is-slowing-621145/amp

Great.

people need to understand that it’s due to mitigation and suppression.

After first period of suppression, restriction could be lifted up in July, let’s say for a month, virus will resurface as in outbreak, which will required another mitigation and suppression so it won’t overwhelm the health care system, flatten the curve.

Only vaccine can stop it and that will take at least 18 months to developed.

This is the new norm until vaccine is developed and unfortunately until then many people will contract it, university and school will have to remain close, and larger gathering will have to remain prohibited.

This isn’t a common flu, this one kill people quick, people need to stop looking at it as a common flu.

 

[Hermoine Green]

Mosques in Bahrain, Kuwait, the UAE, Singapore, Hong Kong and Saudi Arabia have been shut.

Like always, Mullahs are keep the country hostage again. They have asked the government to not shut down mosques. When will we find a leader who could take these termites to task.

Dont think so. Famous scholars like Maulana Tariq jameel and Mufti Taqqi have already said to the people via tv channels that whatever precautionary steps will be told by docs or Govt, we will take it.

But............You know Diesel will try to do something nasty.

 

[Hermoine Green]

What’s Imran doing for ordinary Pakistanis I saw in a news the quarantine camps of Pakistan are in shambles whereas Indians have better facilities... we should ask government to improve conditions

Dont talk about Geo news and Mr. Talat hussain, he is a lier.

 

[amvbfm]

There is no easy solution to this. Whatever decision we make, there will be great damage both in terms of human lives and the economy. However, the decision should be based on hard facts and projections and not just on assumptions or fatalistic beliefs. We have to accept that a large number of people will die, we will have to accept that the economy will suffer. The question is which decision will minimize the losses. If a lockdown can limit immediate losses but lead to economic chaos that will disrupt social order then that is equally dangerous. However, if we let the disease run rampant without any significant controls and enforcement, with our population density, illiteracy and poverty the mortality rate will be way higher than 3% and we will get to a situation where a lockdown will become inevitable or happen itself.

Make no mistake it is a momentous decision. But that is the lot of leaders. They have to make difficult decisions. In such situations there is no right or wrong decision, what matters most is a timely decision. However, you can't just give up and be resigned to the fact that bigger and more developed countries haven't been able to do anything so what can we do. Just do whatever you can and by that i mean actual tangible work and not forming high level committees and making fatalistic statements. Also don't expect anyone to help you in such times. These are times when everyone, be it individuals, families or nations regress to basest human behavior and only look for their own survival. Don't expect debt write-offs, don't expect aid.

What can be done? Even if we don't enforce a lockdown we need to do work on a war footing:

- Actively enforce a ban on all kind of gatherings throughout the country. Use force if necessary. Don't just ask people to avoid gatherings. They never will.
- Mobilize grassroots organizations and local governments. The federal and provincial government can only do so much in such situations. They have to empower and instruct local governments to do the legwork that is needed. No amount of federal or provincial committees will be able to fight this menace.
- Put aside political, religious, ethnic differences. The virus won't appreciate any of these differences, it will kill everyone regardless of age,color, religion. Alas i don't see this happening as neither the government nor the others are willing to yield. They will die but not talk.
- I have repeatedly been hearing how the government doesn't want to create panic. Why not? There has to be panic. Not talking about it won't make it go away. And when it hits hard there will be automatic panic. Don't say there are just 200 at this time and we will wait till there are more. Things will get difficult to control each passing day so start as early as possible.
- Use television and mobile networks to spread as much awareness as possible. Distribute printed material where possible. The majority of our population still doesn't know anything about this disease.
- Impose a nominal tax on every transaction in the country to form a fund to fight this crisis. Don't expect IMF or US to help. And talk to your citizens about this. Yes it is economically hard at this point but our people have contributed to such causes before and will do it again.
- Divert a part of the taxes from the savings on oil to this fund. Use the fund for medical efforts and price stabilization as necessary.
- Maintain a constant channel of communication with your people. And twitter does not count. Come on television regularly. Use recorded phone messages like the ones that were used in election days.

I am sure the government is already considering all such suggestions and much much more. Unfortunately, i just don't see or feel the sense of urgency that is required at this point. Instead there is a sense of resignation and most of the statements coming from the top leadership reek of fatalism and are just not proportionate to the size of the crisis. I am not totally blaming the government, i know it is a challenge of epic proportions but what irks me is the lukewarm response that we have seen so far. I hope it will change and change soon for the sake of this country and its citizens. We have all heard the proverb "when there is a will there is a way" and there is no better time than this to put that to practice.

 

[Last Monetarist]

There is no easy solution to this. Whatever decision we make, there will be great damage both in terms of human lives and the economy. However, the decision should be based on hard facts and projections and not just on assumptions or fatalistic beliefs. We have to accept that a large number of people will die, we will have to accept that the economy will suffer. The question is which decision will minimize the losses. If a lockdown can limit immediate losses but lead to economic chaos that will disrupt social order then that is equally dangerous. However, if we let the disease run rampant without any significant controls and enforcement, with our population density, illiteracy and poverty the mortality rate will be way higher than 3% and we will get to a situation where a lockdown will become inevitable or happen itself.

Make no mistake it is a momentous decision. But that is the lot of leaders. They have to make difficult decisions. In such situations there is no right or wrong decision, what matters most is a timely decision. However, you can't just give up and be resigned to the fact that bigger and more developed countries haven't been able to do anything so what can we do. Just do whatever you can and by that i mean actual tangible work and not forming high level committees and making fatalistic statements. Also don't expect anyone to help you in such times. These are times when everyone, be it individuals, families or nations regress to basest human behavior and only look for their own survival. Don't expect debt write-offs, don't expect aid.

What can be done? Even if we don't enforce a lockdown we need to do work on a war footing:

- Actively enforce a ban on all kind of gatherings throughout the country. Use force if necessary. Don't just ask people to avoid gatherings. They never will.
- Mobilize grassroots organizations and local governments. The federal and provincial government can only do so much in such situations. They have to empower and instruct local governments to do the legwork that is needed. No amount of federal or provincial committees will be able to fight this menace.
- Put aside political, religious, ethnic differences. The virus won't appreciate any of these differences, it will kill everyone regardless of age,color, religion. Alas i don't see this happening as neither the government nor the others are willing to yield. They will die but not talk.
- I have repeatedly been hearing how the government doesn't want to create panic. Why not? There has to be panic. Not talking about it won't make it go away. And when it hits hard there will be automatic panic. Don't say there are just 200 at this time and we will wait till there are more. Things will get difficult to control each passing day so start as early as possible.
- Use television and mobile networks to spread as much awareness as possible. Distribute printed material where possible. The majority of our population still doesn't know anything about this disease.
- Impose a nominal tax on every transaction in the country to form a fund to fight this crisis. Don't expect IMF or US to help. And talk to your citizens about this. Yes it is economically hard at this point but our people have contributed to such causes before and will do it again.
- Divert a part of the taxes from the savings on oil to this fund. Use the fund for medical efforts and price stabilization as necessary.
- Maintain a constant channel of communication with your people. And twitter does not count. Come on television regularly. Use recorded phone messages like the ones that were used in election days.

I am sure the government is already considering all such suggestions and much much more. Unfortunately, i just don't see or feel the sense of urgency that is required at this point. Instead there is a sense of resignation and most of the statements coming from the top leadership reek of fatalism and are just not proportionate to the size of the crisis. I am not totally blaming the government, i know it is a challenge of epic proportions but what irks me is the lukewarm response that we have seen so far. I hope it will change and change soon for the sake of this country and its citizens. We have all heard the proverb "when there is a will there is a way" and there is no better time than this to put that to practice.

Brilliant post, agree with every word. Unfortunately, I am as pessimistic about you with respect to the will among the people and government to fight this pandemic.

This idea of not creating panic is absolutely ludicrous, extraordinary circumstances demand extraordinary measures, going about your lives as normal is the lot of the criminally stupid. The government is playing with the lives of the public who don't understand the humongous catastrophe that is hanging over the nation.

Once people start dying, there will be panic on the streets and a complete lockdown will sadly become necessary. All this can be avoided by acting now and aggressively pushing social isolation and enacting containment measures.

 

[sensible-indian-fan]

Can't avoid economic ramification.

Virus will spread.

Question for government to ask, economically suffer now and safe lives or suffer later and loose more lives.

If you want to save lives, then you will have to spend a lot of money. The countries that are shutting down are ploughing £billions into the economy to keep it afloat. Do you seriously believe Pakistan is one of those countries that can afford to do that?

Yes...when deaths pile up in 3-4 weeks, Imran will do the lockdowns anyway.

Is foreign travel banned?

Is critical areas locked out?

If no, then Imran is doing na AWFUL job.

 

[sensible-indian-fan]

1 <---- You are here.
3
9
27
81
243
729
2,187
6,561
19,683
59,046
177,147
531,441
1,594,323 <--- Avoidable victims.

Adhere to social distance.

Takes 4-5 days to show symptoms.

Yeah...the virus is dangerous cos it gives you the ILLUSION of security before pounding you mercilessly later on.

Sometimes takes 2 weeks to show symptoms.

 

[amvbfm]

Brilliant post, agree with every word. Unfortunately, I am as pessimistic about you with respect to the will among the people and government to fight this pandemic.

This idea of not creating panic is absolutely ludicrous, extraordinary circumstances demand extraordinary measures, going about your lives as normal is the lot of the criminally stupid. The government is playing with the lives of the public who don't understand the humongous catastrophe that is hanging over the nation.

Once people start dying, there will be panic on the streets and a complete lockdown will sadly become necessary. All this can be avoided by acting now and aggressively pushing social isolation and enacting containment measures.

Lack of awareness is one of the greatest issues at the moment and i don't see much happening in that regard. I can guarantee that a significant part of our population wouldn't even know that this thing exists and those who do don't understand the gravity. It will only start becoming apparent when we start losing people. A mere 5 minute address from the PM will not raise much awareness.

Moreover, trivializing the lethality of the virus might not create panic but it will certainly ease its spread. It is critically important how the government frames what it says. There is a need to structure the message in such a way that it doesn't cause panic but make people take steps they otherwise won't. Tell them that if you catch it you might recover but you are likely to spread it to your elders who might not, so do this this and this to avoid spreading it. Don't just tell them that not much is at risk because 97% people survive. They don't understand numbers. They don't understand that 3% can mean hundreds, thousands and millions. And when that happens they will surely ask why they were not told about this possibility. It is time for the government to initiate mass public contact through every possible medium. Use TV, mobile, internet, print.

 

[kk1992]

Coronavirus: Experiment in northern Italian town halts all new infections after trial

The experiment involved blanket testing of the town's entire population of 3,300 people.

A small town in northern Italy has reportedly stopped all new coronavirus infections as part of a successful experiment.

Vò, near Venice, was one of the 11 towns and villages at the centre of the country's COVID-19 outbreak and began the trial at the start of the pandemic in Europe.

The experiment involved blanket testing of the town's entire population of 3,300 people and the imposition of very strict quarantine on those infected and their contacts.

Italian news reports suggest the town has not registered new cases since Friday.

"Testing was vital, it has saved many lives," mayor Giuliano Martini was quoted by the country's media.

Andrea Crisanti, an infections expert at Imperial College London, who has been involved in the village's efforts to combat the virus told Italy's broadcast media that continuous testing and retesting of the whole population made the difference.

Professor Crisanti said: "In Vo Euganeo we tested all the inhabitants, even those who were asymptomatic.

Only way to stop it, yes! I understand not everyone can be tested in big cities.