In my view these positions are guaranteed.
1. Warner [NSW]
2. Opening Batsman
3. Khawaja [QLD]
4. Smith* [NSW]
5. Middle Order Batsman
6. Middle Order Batsman/Allrounder
7. Wicket Keeper
8. Starc [NSW]
9. Spin Bowler
10. Third Quick
11. Hazlewood NSW
There was the possibity of Khawaja getting moved up to open the batting but that appears unlikely now. Selecting Renshaw will be too attractive to the selectors and media pressure is building on them to pick a young gun and stick with them.
If O'Keefe plays (as a pink ball specialist - he has a great record with the pink ball) then he bats ahead of Starc.
Opening Batsman
Shaun Marsh is obviously injured so won't be considered. Joe Burns is the incumbent but after twin failures today and 18 runs in his last 6 first class innings he will be dropped.
Cameron Bancroft was set for selection and probably just needed a 50 and a middling sort of score but he failed twice and has been generally out of form this season.
Michael Klinger could have been an option if the selectors desperately wanted to avoid a whitewash but I think the selectors want youth now and in any case he's not in particularly good form.
Travis Dean made his debut for Victoria last season and had a decent season and scored a century against NSW (minus Starc and Hazlewood and Cummins) this round. He is a reliable sort but to me he's never going to quite be test class and I also think the selectors will ignore him.
Matt Renshaw is a very young opener for Queensland who is into his second full season. Topped Queenslands run scoring last year as a teenager with more than 700 runs at an average of over 40 and scored 94 against a strong South Africa A (Philander and from memory Rabada both played) this year. Just came back from injury for this shield round and scored a century and a fifty. I consider him a monty to get selected.
Alex Doolan is another who could be an extreme desperation move but I consider it unlikely while South Australia's Jake Weatherald and Queensland's Marnus Labuschagne are both promising. Marcus Harris is also called for by some. This is a laugh. Once every ten innings he reminds people of why he gets selected and then is mediocre for the other nine.
Renshaw is the guy they have to pick though.
Middle Order Batsmen
Voges is pretty much guaranteed to not play. He earned his selection and despite what [MENTION=132916]Junaids[/MENTION] says he was a much better player from 2013 to 2015 than earlier in his career. However it is exceedingly obvious that old age has caught up to him. Today in the papers he admitted to not even seeing the ball that took him out. Even purely for safety reasons he can't be brought in to play the pink ball at night against someone like Rabada.
Ferguson failed in the test and failed both times this shield run. On the other hand he was selected after several consecutive good shield seasons so I'd expect him to get a few more tests (until Shaun Marsh recovers).
Travis Head is highly talented and very highly rated and I think a century in the second innings might get him in because the way the selectors have treated him so far suggests that they want an excuse to pick him. I have some concerns about him, his way of batting to me just exemplifies everything that is currently wrong with Australian cricket. Its successful and when he can get on top of bowlers he will win you a match single handily but I don't think that is what we need. Jake Lehmann is someone who excites a lot of people for some reason. He has definitely made some nice scores so far in his career but to me he is just an inferior version of Travis Head.
Chris Lynn is injured anyway and I also don't rate him at all. The other Queenslander, Joe Burns will make a test return at some point and it will be in the middle order where he belongs. Jake Heazlett is another very young Queensland batsman I expect will play tests.
The two New South Wales guys in contention are Nic Maddinson and Kurtis Patterson. Maddinson in my opinion is the most talented batsman in the country. He is also the dumbest and has thrown away so many great starts in between some incredibly impressive innings. Like Travis Head I can see why they are excited about him but to me he's just going to contribute further to our problems.
Kurtis Patterson is a very reliable young batsman. I think he can be depended on but I don't think he'll ever be more than just a good test player at best. A lot of the other players named have higher ceilings but after a collapse I wouldn't find myself worrying that Patterson might do something stupid the way I'd expect Maxwell/Maddinson to do.
Peter Handscomb is a player I've been calling for to be selected for a while now and he has pretty much forced the issue with a well timed 200. Behind Smith he's quite possibly the second best player of spin in the country so the tour of India coming up helps his cause even more. Apart from that just insert my description of Patterson here with the addition of Handscomb being in great form. He isn't the best prospect we have but he is the player we need in the team.
Cameron White is a joke selection the Victorian media calls for every year for the last decade. George Bailey scored a century but once again he batted like it was a one dayer. Not up to test cricket. Marcus Stoinis is a solid batsman who bowls a bit so could fill in that 5th bowler role if they need a extra rotation to avoid overbowling Starc and Hazlewood. But I think he's already reached his ceiling and it is below test standard (that said I never expected him to become as good a shield player as he has become).
Maxwell just no. An inferior Nic Maddinson who bowls mediocre off spin.
Mitch Marsh has the talent to become a test player but needs an extended run at state level and is injured anyway. James Faulkner is not a good enough batsmen to bat in the top six. Ashton Agar is better served pushing for selection as a spin bowler and is starting to restart his career. Injured himself anyway so can't press for selection after taking ten wickets last shield round.
Ashton Turner and Hilton Cartwright are possible prospects for the future but not now. Turner is also highly rated as a leader.
Keeping
Peter Nevill is the incumbent and is good enough with the gloves to play but despite strong shield performances has not performed with the bat at test level. There will be some temptation to give him a few more tests because the most immediate contender is Matthew Wade who is a mediocre wicketkeeper. Sam Whiteman is younger than the other two and like Nevill is good enough with the gloves. Unfortunately he had a prolonged period of poor performance with the bat before scoring a half century and a century this shield match. Because of Whiteman showing his possible return to form I think they will stick with Nevill.
Handscomb and Bancroft get named by people who see cricinfo scorecards and think they can keep. They can't at any acceptable level to get selected as a specialist keeper.
Spin Bowler
Nathan Lyon is mediocre and has always been mediocre and will always be mediocre but has a good chance of retaining his spot. Steve O'Keefe should be the main spinner for the India tour and has had a lot of success with the pink ball and is a very useful and reliable lower order batsman so might get ahead of him. Ashton Agar has a slight injury which forced him out of this match after taking 10 last match which will prevent him getting selected. Unfortunately his disappointing season last year with the ball (he scored 1-2 centuries with the bat) will prevent him from contending on the basis of just one ten wicket haul.
Mitchell Swepson is a very interesting leg spinning prospect but not ready just yet.
Adam Zampa will never be good enough for test cricket.
Fast Bowlers
Hazlewood and Starc will obviously play and get rested this round. Joe Mennie also got rested which should mean that he will play but who knows (he shouldn't in any case but it would be odd to rest him).
Pattinson, Cummins, Paris, Coulter-Nile etc are injured. Billy Stanlake is a great prospect but can't really be selected. Bollinger is too old. Of the rest of the Victorian lot, Tremain to me is the only one who might be test class but I think he might just be a good bench player at best. Siddle is of course injured as well and with the frequency of his injuries at his age we should give up on him.
Jackson Bird really needed to play in Hobart and while he should be first in line for Adelaide both Jason Behrendorff who has a good record and an exceptional record with the pink ball and Chadd Sayers in his home ground should also be considered.
James Faulkner might get nominated by some but no.
