Let this be a lesson to Pak for always playing so slowly. Had they understood the importance of run rate they wouldn't be needing to score 400 versus Bangladesh and having to dismiss them for 80 or something. Only thing I would say is that the ICC has to assure all matches are played in the tournament like they are in the Football WC. Can you imagine a Brazil-Argentina World Cup match cancelled because of rain! The final table could have looked very different had all matches been played.
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How big would Pakistan have to beat Bangladesh to surpass on points table?
- Thread starter Bhaijaan
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Qualification scenarios for Pakistan. We have to bat first, if we lose the toss and Bangladesh bat, the toss will knock us out. If we bat first -
Pakistan - 350; Bangladesh - 38 all out
Pakistan - 400; Bangladesh - 84 all out
Pakistan - 450; Bangladesh - 129 all out
Pakistan - 500; Bangladesh - 175 all out
In short, the boys will be on the plane back to Pakistan this weekend
Now I'm a glass half full type of guy but I'm looking at the glass and it's completley empty.
What's worse is whatever was in the glass has been consumed whole by MS Dhoni
Marathonrunner
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Really sad to believe that the opening game against WI proved detrimental to Pakistan. Strange that WI could not capitalize on it
Sirris
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I hope Pakistan loses the match against BD. That's what they deserve after losing against WI.
sweep_shot
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You are correct. Wicket doesn't influence NRR.
A few people have asked why Pakistan can't bowl first. To put it simply, the best way to boost your NRR is to score a lot of runs really quickly. When a team bats first, there is no limit to how many runs they can score. But if they bat second, the number of runs they can score are limited by their opponent's total.
I understand that, but surely overs bowled and faced makes a difference to NRR? Is the 300+ margin based on both teams playing out 50 overs? For example, if Pakistan ends up scoring 400 and Bangladesh is all out for 150 in 20 overs or 40 overs. Does this have an impact on NRR?
Bilal Ahmad15
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It is pretty much impossible for Pakistan to qualify for semi-finals, but if Pakistan really wants to qualify, this should be there lineup:
1. Fakhar Zaman
2. Asif Ali
3. Wahab Riaz
4. Babar Azam
5. Haris Sohail
6. Mohammed Hafeez
7. Hasan Ali
8. Shoaib Malik
9. Sarfraz Ahmed
10. Mohammad Amir
11. Shaheen Shah Afridi
1. Fakhar Zaman
2. Asif Ali
3. Wahab Riaz
4. Babar Azam
5. Haris Sohail
6. Mohammed Hafeez
7. Hasan Ali
8. Shoaib Malik
9. Sarfraz Ahmed
10. Mohammad Amir
11. Shaheen Shah Afridi
It makes no difference to NRR if a team is all out in 20 overs or 40 overs.
IMMY69
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If my memory serves me well in 2003 our last game was against Zimbabwe and if we beat them well we could have Krept through on NRR... it wasn’t like this though, I think it was an easier target. Any way, Azhar Mehmoud was promoted up the order and we had a good run rate but lost two or three wickets until the heavens opened up...
The moral of the story is... well there isn’t one other then don’t let it get to such a situation.
The moral of the story is... well there isn’t one other then don’t let it get to such a situation.
cricketAXEpert
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It is not possible now. Lets hope Pakistan goes out on a win.
Abdullah719
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The moment a team is bowled out, they are considered to have faced 50 overs.
That's why Pakistan's total of 105 against WI only gave them a +NRR of 2.1.
WI's chase was completed at a RR of 7.9, thus Pakistan were -5.8 after the first game.
In a 50 over game if a team is bowled out within 20 overs or 40 overs it counts as full number of number of overs (50). And their total is divided by 50. For instance, even though Pakistan was bowled out for 105 in about 14 overs agains WI, NRR was calculated based on full 50 overs. 105/50
Bowling a side out only really helps in a sense that you can, perhaps, restrict them to a lower total. Basically, if a team is bowled out within 40 overs, more often than not they tend to have a lower score than a side playing out full 50 overs.
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Snatch
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Haha, it never ceases to amaze me how some Pakistan fans think.
I assume he was joking, but I'm really not sure.
Bat first, juggle the batting order to send hitters in power play, aim for 500 or more in an attempt to do that if you’re bowled out for 150 so be it, show that you want it and did your best, whatever is meant to happen will happen. It’s a game of cricket guys shouldn’t dictate our personal happiness, personal attacks and disrespectful behavior towards players is unwarranted, they’re there to do their job and do it to the best of their abilities.
I’m pretty sure most of us don’t like to be criticized and made fun of for every small mistake we make in our workplace. So, why not be emphatic and courteous towards these guys as well?
I’m pretty sure most of us don’t like to be criticized and made fun of for every small mistake we make in our workplace. So, why not be emphatic and courteous towards these guys as well?
Seems like doesn't matter what the score is, Pak can score 316, 400, 800, 1000 but at the end of the day, PAK needs to win by 316 runs to overtake NZ's runrate. Bat second, automatically out.
When a coin toss is the lifeline of a team's fate which already needs a miracle. Even before the match begins, 50-50 PAK is already out.
When a coin toss is the lifeline of a team's fate which already needs a miracle. Even before the match begins, 50-50 PAK is already out.
Kroll
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Good to see you guys, but we need your support to oust the deadwood before you go back to slumber. We need to raise our voices, enough is enough.
Savak
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I wonder if the captains exchange the team sheets with the officials before or after the toss. If we happen to lose the toss and Bangladesh bat first, then i would personally want Hasnain to be given a go and Malik, Hafeez to be given their farewell games so that there is no more farewell drama after the world cup
Sin Nombre
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Pakistan barely won against Afg with umpiring help and Gulbadin going crazy.
There was nothing that could be done in terms of NRR.
Lol what nonsesne.
Its nothing like sa 92. Pak got what they deserved. Its simple maths. They lost badly which is why no chance now.
It makes complete sense, you just don't understand maths I guess.
But they can overhaul it in less number of overs. For example, BD all out for 29 and Pakistan is home in 5 balls. Then Pakistan run rate will have only 5 balls (plus number of balls faced till now )as denominator.
Crap.
Run rate can be more than 6. BD abating first is only Chance Pakistan has.
Let’s assume Bangladesh make 300. If Pakistan chase it in 24 overs. Pakistan should be through
Who is saying bat second automatically out. In my view bat second is the best chance.
Whatever score Bangladesh make, Pakistan has to chase and ensure Pending overs into RR for that match is 317.
last_knight
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If BD bats and scores 120, Pak needs to chase it in 8/9 overs to go ahead of NZ in terms of NRR.
If BD scores 150, Pak needs to chase it in 10 overs.
Chasing is a better bet for Pakistan. Restrict BD under 150 and chase it inside 10 overs.
If BD scores 150, Pak needs to chase it in 10 overs.
Chasing is a better bet for Pakistan. Restrict BD under 150 and chase it inside 10 overs.
gazza619
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Guys the experts from Sky Sports have confirmed today in the post match that there is no scenario where Pakistan can bowl first and win big against Bangladesh to get through to the semi finals.
The only option is to bat first, so I suggest you give your calculators a breather.
The only option is to bat first, so I suggest you give your calculators a breather.
Abdullah719
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No. You can do the math and check.
If Bangladesh are bowled out for 0, Pakistan need to make 49 off 1 ball.
Pakistan can qualify by bowling first
I am not sure why everyone is saying Pakistan can not qualify if bowling first.
Pakistan has to gain around 320 runs. assume Bangladesh bat first and make 180. If Pakistan chase this in 18 overs, Pakistan should be through. 32 into 10
If Bangladesh make 240. Then Pakistan will have to change this in approx 21 overs. 29 into 11.5 will be more than 316
If Bangladesh make B runs
Pakistan chase in P overs
Then RR = B/P
RR * (50 - P ) should be greater than 316.
What is wrong in above calculation ?
I am not sure why everyone is saying Pakistan can not qualify if bowling first.
Pakistan has to gain around 320 runs. assume Bangladesh bat first and make 180. If Pakistan chase this in 18 overs, Pakistan should be through. 32 into 10
If Bangladesh make 240. Then Pakistan will have to change this in approx 21 overs. 29 into 11.5 will be more than 316
If Bangladesh make B runs
Pakistan chase in P overs
Then RR = B/P
RR * (50 - P ) should be greater than 316.
What is wrong in above calculation ?
What if Bangladesh make 150. Then?
Sky sports don’t know maths. What rubbish is going on. Bowling first and Pakistan has a better chance than batting first.
I am pretty sure its before the match begins. When I did play club cricket, it was always before the match.
Abdullah719
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Even if Pakistan chased it in 1 over, it wouldn't be enough to overhaul NZ's NRR.
One good result from today's match is that people's memory has moved on from 1992 to 2003
Enlighten us Jeetlodil. What calculation are you doing to get an outcome of PAK going to semi final batting second that even the experts are saying otherwise.
Abdullah719
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The NRR is calculated on the basis of totals runs for/overs - runs against/overs.
There is no scenario where BD post a score and Pakistan chase it down, where Pakistan will be able to overhaul NZ's NRR.
Lol. Who told you this. If Pakistan chase it in 1 over, Pakistan will gain 49 into 150. That is about 7500 runs.
If Pakistan chase it in 16 overs, Pakistan will gain 34 into 9.4 which is around 319 runs. Exactly what Pakistan needs
This is not true. I have shared calculations.
If Bangladesh make 180 and Pakistan chase in 18 overs, Pakistan will be through. Help with your calculations on this.
You dont know anything mate. Just go to bed lol
Yeah. Can you calculate NRR in this scenario.
Bdesh make 180 and Pakistan chase in 18 overs
Abdullah719
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Dude it's simple maths, you can't defeat facts.
Do the calculation yourself if you want for your scenario.
Pakistan's runs for/overs= 1710/339... Add 151 and 16 and make it 1861/355 which is 5.242.
Pakistan's run against/overs= 1773/304... Add 150 and 50 and make it 1923/354 which is 5.432.
Pakistan's NRR in this case: -0.19
NZ's final NRR: 0.175
Play with the following lineup of players at their prime and Pakistan can still not make it to the Semi Finals
Don Bradman
Sachin Tendulkar
Lara
Viv Richards
Kohli
Sobers
Ponting
Gilchrist
ABD
Miandad
Sehwag
Pak cricket same **** different day. Following them for decades. Same old problems. Players not reading the game, batsman losing wickets either too early or in clusters in middle overs, drop catches in crucial games. It has cist tgen 2011 2015 and now this world cup. There was no rocket science against WI to play out the overs to have decent RR. All analysts and everyone knew RR would come into play later. Pak lacked basic common sense, players and coaches all to blame and now they are out if world cup cuz of that game. Against Australia they should have won. Idiotic captaincy to have asif at slips and he drops a sitter of finch at 24 and that proved costly. If fielding and fitness doesn't improve same stuff will keep happening. Tbh sarfaraz hafeez Malik wahab (may be after a yr or so) need to go.
last_knight
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Never mind, I thought NZ nrr was in minus. Alas, it's +.17.
Means Pakistan has to chase a target of even 10 runs in minus 10 overs.
So only bet is bat first. And Azhar Mehmood made it clear that a team needs 300 balls to score 500 and opposition needs only 10 good balls. So Pakistan are effectively out.
Only instance i remember was Scotland vs Ireland in a WC T20 iirc, where Scotland chased 180 in 13 overs to overtake some other team on basis of NRR. And situation of Pakistan is even grave.
Titan24
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Some solid points made.
I think, it’s possible mathematically, but not realistic. In that same example take PAK chasing 150 in 4 overs with winning shot a boundary or six when scores are tied, that makes it 1865/343= 5.437.
Abdullah719
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LOL, If we had experts like you Pakistan will have no chance. It doesn't work like that. Abdullah719 is right. Let me show you the calculations.
Currently Pakistan has scored 1710 runs in 338.5 overs at RR = 5.05
Pakistan has 1773 runs scored against them in 303.4 overs at RR = 5.84
Therefore their current NRR = 5.05 - 5.84 = - 0.79
If they have to qualify they need an NRR more than +0.175 (which is NZ's NRR).
In Batting first scenario,
Even if Bangladesh gets bowled out for '0' and Pakistan wins in 1 ball and scores a 6 (maximum run possible in a ball). That would mean
Pakistan has scored 1716 runs in 338.7 overs at RR = 5.07
Pakistan has 1773 runs scored against them in 353.4 overs at RR = 5.02
Therefore their NRR would be = 5.07 - 5.02 = +0.05, which is lower than 0.175 and therefore NZ will go through.
Savak
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So what are the final numbers?
Abdullah719
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SCENARIOS:
Pakistan make 308, bowl Bangladesh out for 0. Win by 308 runs.
Pakistan make 350, bowl Bangladesh out for 38. Win by 312 runs.
Pakistan make 400, bowl Bangladesh out for 84. Win by 316 runs.
Pakistan make 450, bowl Bangladesh out for 129. Win by 321 runs.
Pakistan make 500, bowl Bangladesh out for 175. Win by 325 runs.
If Pakistan bowl first, there is no mathematical possibility of them making it through.
Savak
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Will be interesting to see Sarfaraz body language at the toss, if he loses the toss and Bang bat first, that will be the end of the matter
emranabbas
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Only chance we have is if Bangladesh play alongside us Vs New Zealand's NRR
Otherwise no chance
I can't see Pakistan scoring 300+
And knowing sarfaraz he may win the toss and field first
Otherwise no chance
I can't see Pakistan scoring 300+
And knowing sarfaraz he may win the toss and field first
So this NNr is flawed pathetic matrix
nads_rocks
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Its a dead rubber, calculate all you want, Pak will bat at 3rpo in the first 10 lose wickets, hit few boundaries and collapse for 250-260.
This team does not have what it takes and does not deserve to be in the top 4 otherwise it would never have been in this position.
To this you guys are still clinging on to some hope that Pakistan will win the toss and miraculously go on stick cricket mode and whop 450 runs.
[MENTION=131701]Mamoon[/MENTION] [MENTION=57576]MRSN[/MENTION]... such people still exist in cuckoo land
This team does not have what it takes and does not deserve to be in the top 4 otherwise it would never have been in this position.
To this you guys are still clinging on to some hope that Pakistan will win the toss and miraculously go on stick cricket mode and whop 450 runs.
[MENTION=131701]Mamoon[/MENTION] [MENTION=57576]MRSN[/MENTION]... such people still exist in cuckoo land
Kroll
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He's probably already reconciled with the fact that either way, the WC is over.
Against is 5.432, so that would only take Pakistan to 0.005 in NRR. NZ are at 0.175
Ups!!!
Then make it 250 in 4 overs with our MP bowing 23 no balls & 12 wides each for 5.
It’s the best method to separate teams on identical points. It takes out the impact of high/low scoring game. Also, in DWL affected games, for such calculations, NRR is the best method.
chacha kashmiri
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Its the tournament of the West Indian company hammering Pakistan
And a soviet afghanistan hammering Pakistan too
All that’s left is mushy and shakip to put Pakistan out their misery with two extra packets of sugar
And a soviet afghanistan hammering Pakistan too
All that’s left is mushy and shakip to put Pakistan out their misery with two extra packets of sugar
Savak
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I say the Pakistani team will create unexpected history on Friday
mystical man
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I can understand your mental condition ☺So why people are saying WC is over for us
BDfanforever
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This MP single handed cost Bangladesh big time. Why are Bangladeshi people so emotional? Yeah, MP Mashrafe did so much for development of our Cricket, therefore he should still play even though he can neither bowl, bat, or field.
Overall BD bowling has been expensive, but its not completely toothless. Big problem was MP was completely useless man.
Overall
Without MP
TBH,
Pakistan scoring 450 and then getting BD 120 all out is not totally out of the question...
A 0.1% chance yes...but still a chance nonetheless...
If Pakistan bat big in the first innings the team will be super charged up and BD will be under pressure...Shakib is also due a failure and the batting revolves around him...
aliahad
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I am not trying to be optimistic but green shirts should approach it in a completely different way. Let's say we bat first and wanted to score 450 runs which means they need 75 sixes in their innings from 300 balls which in my opinion is sort of more achievable or gettable rather than we need to get 400 plus runs. Give yourself a small goal rather than a big one.
I am sure that bangla attack is not that great, they will give you freebies. Make full use of the first 10 overs. I would give Asif and Fakhar the license to kill.
You only lose when you give up...
I am sure that bangla attack is not that great, they will give you freebies. Make full use of the first 10 overs. I would give Asif and Fakhar the license to kill.
You only lose when you give up...
Savak
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Pakistan should aim for 600 runs minimum
chacha kashmiri
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On a pitch where Pakistan theoretically score 400 how you can see us getting out a better line up than our own for 100 runs
Savak
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Need to aim for two boundaries and two sixes every over
Total 6s hit by Fakhar in his ODI career so far: 30
Total 6s hit by Asif in his ODI career so far: 21
Total 6s hit by Fakhar+Asif between them in their ODI careers so far: 30+21 = 51
You want them to hit 75 sixes in a single match?
Lets look at it another way...
World record for most sixes hit by a team in one ODI innings: 23 (West Indies, 12 of which came from Gayle's blade).
So you want to more than triple that record, on demand, at a game of your choosing?
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