For win
bowl out kiwis under 200 at max in 1st session tomorow,
score atleast 270 to 300 in next 3 odd sessions and set kiwis minimum 200 target, then shoot out them under that score,
For draw,
bowl out nz under 300 till tea tomorow then play out next 5 sessions atleast and score around 450 minimum, which will set kiwis a 280 plus target in 2 sessions and pak can defend that by bowling dry and setting defensive fields, and if kiwis really try to force the issue then pak can even bundle them out in 2 sessions theoretically.
But as of now there is 10 percent chance of draw, 20 percent pak win but 70 new zeland win. You don't win many test after getting all out under 150 no matter how hard the conditions are. But it's not beyond pak, and nz can also help pak cause by self destructing batting as well.