What's new

How will the US–Israel war against Iran impact the global economy?

Cricket Warrior

Super Moderator
Staff member
Joined
Aug 12, 2023
Runs
24,686
The escalating conflict between the United States and Israel against Iran is starting to raise serious concerns about the global economy. The Middle East is a key energy region for the world, so any instability there can quickly impact oil prices, global trade, and inflation. One major concern is the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20% of the world’s oil supply passes, making it a critical route if tensions continue to rise.

Oil prices have already started to climb, and global markets are reacting with a lot of uncertainty. Higher energy prices could push inflation up, increase transportation and production costs, and potentially slow down economic growth if the conflict drags on. Some analysts are even warning that prolonged disruption could lead to stagflation or possibly a global recession.

What do you guys think? How big of an impact could this war have on the global economy, and which countries or regions are likely to be hit the hardest?
 
Don’t put all your eggs in one basket or to be clear don’t put everything you have in a bank account. Hold hard assets , house, gold, silver , antiques or land .

If this war continues by the summer , the global economy will collapse , banks may close , leaving you broke .
 
Don’t put all your eggs in one basket or to be clear don’t put everything you have in a bank account. Hold hard assets , house, gold, silver , antiques or land .

If this war continues by the summer , the global economy will collapse , banks may close , leaving you broke .

Yup. Diversification is the way to go.

Gold is very good during these times.
 
if this escalates for another few weeks, $200 oil, and rates up by 150 bps, however knowing trump he'll wake up one morning, claim victory and and make a tonne of money as the trades unwind.
 
Indian Navy is Quietly Guiding the Country’s Ships Through Strait of Hormuz

Indian government officials confirmed in media reports that the country continues to quietly guide its ships out of the Persian Gulf. The reports indicate that after contact with the Iranians to ensure safe passage, the government launched “Operation Urja Suraksha” to guide and protect critical shipping out of the region.

The IANS News Service detailed the operation with confidential information from government sources. According to the report, the operation is underway with the “highest degree of caution and minimal publicity” to ensure the safe evacuation of the Indian-flagged ships.

India’s Shipping Ministry had said there were 22 Indian-flagged vessels with over 600 seafarers in the western Persian Gulf. There were also three ships with an additional 76 Indian seafarers east of the Strait of Hormuz. According to the latest report, India identified 20 of the vessels as high-priority as they were carrying LNG, LPG, and crude oil.

More than five Indian warships have been dispatched, and they are leading the first element of the support operation. While none of the warships have entered the Strait of Hormuz, they remain above the Gulf of Oman near the terminus and are in constant communication with the merchant ships.

After securing permission from Iran for the ships to transit the Strait, the warships are providing guidance on the route. They are reported to be providing instruction as well as the procedures the ships should follow. This is considered to be critical as Iran is forcing the ships to take a different route from the Traffic Separation Scheme and closer to its coastline. Ships are being individually guided with precise instructions.

Once a ship clears the Strait of Hormuz, it is met by a series of destroyers and frigates. The support extends through the Gulf of Oman with additional warships and logistics in place.


 
UAE jobs: Firms avoid mass layoffs, turn to pay cuts

As regional uncertainty persists, firms are prioritising employee retention through redeployment and adjusted schedules

There are “no systemic permanent layoffs” in the UAE, as companies believe that the regional military conflict is a temporary issue, say recruitment industry executives.

Companies in the UAE and the Gulf region are encouraging employees to take accrued leave instead of implementing systematic permanent layoffs, as business leaders seek to reduce costs responsibly while protecting the long-term interests of their organisations amid the ongoing regional conflict involving the US, Israel and Iran.

“It’s been a little over one month since the regional issues started. So far, we haven’t seen any trend of systematic permanent layoffs. This is a good sign and signals positive sentiment in the employers’ market about what the future holds. The steps taken by companies tend to indicate that almost all employers presently see this conflict as a temporary issue lasting a few weeks or months, creating momentary pressure on revenues and profitability rather than a long-term decline,” Mohammad Osama, CEO of GRG, told Khaleej Times in an interview.

A systemic layoff refers to a widespread, planned reduction in the workforce that is embedded in an organisation's structure or operational strategy.

On Tuesday, Danube Group announced that it would not lay off any employees.

“We will not lay off any employees at Danube Group. All salaries will be paid on time. Our 6,000-plus employees are not just our workforce; they are our family,” said Rizwan Sajan, founder and chairman of Danube Group.

Sanjeev Giri, head of operations at Adecco UAE, said it is natural for employees to wonder whether challenging market conditions might lead to layoffs, salary adjustments, or temporary cost-containment measures.

“Yet the broader picture of the UAE labour market tells a more reassuring story – one of continued growth, adaptability, and forward-looking workforce strategies,” he said, adding that the key question facing business leaders is not simply how to reduce costs, but how to do so responsibly while protecting long-term organisational capability.

He noted that firms recognise that talent is an asset requiring significant time and investment to build. “Losing experienced employees during temporary downturns can create larger challenges when markets recover. As a result, organisations are adopting more flexible workforce strategies.”

Unpaid leave, salary cuts

Giri added that some sectors react more quickly than others to shifts in demand or operational pressures.

“Industries such as aviation services, retail, logistics, and energy-related services often experience early adjustments during market fluctuations. For organisations in these sectors, workforce planning becomes a critical balancing act.”

Sanjeev Giri elaborated that common approaches include offering voluntary unpaid leave options, temporarily redeploying employees to other projects, adjusting work schedules, or slowing new hiring while protecting existing teams. These measures allow organisations to navigate short-term financial pressures while maintaining workforce stability.

Mohammad Osama said these steps vary from industry to industry and from market to market.

“For example, in Saudi Arabia, particularly for companies operating in the Western Province, we haven’t seen any impact whatsoever. Similarly, in the technology sector, companies are carrying on with their projects with little to no disruption.”

He added that the most extreme cases are in the hospitality industry, where a percentage of staff have been asked to take unpaid leave until the situation eases. Other measures have included up to a 30 per cent reduction in staff salaries, which is again temporary until the situation improves.

“However, in many other industries and sectors that haven’t been impacted as much, business continues as usual. Some of the measures taken have included reduced spending on staff entertainment, business travel expenses, and, in some cases, non-essential marketing and PR,” he added.

Use accrued leave

Mohammad Osama added that some companies are encouraging employees to use their accrued leave.

“This has been seen in most companies, particularly where employees have decided to travel outside the UAE due to the current situation. While many companies have allowed their staff to work from home in Dubai, they have been more reluctant to allow them to work from outside the country. Several reasons have been cited for this, including time zone differences, access to essential connectivity tools, and the availability of a work-conducive environment,” he added.

Moreover, firms with diversified business units are deploying key staff and high-performing employees to other projects.

Giri also confirmed that firms are encouraging employees to utilise accrued annual leave.

 
Back
Top