My starting XI for Lord's is probably -
Azhar
Sami
Babar
Hari
Sarfraz
Asad
Saad Ali
Fahim
Amir
Hasan
Rahat
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I think, 8 of the XI makes it automatically. For rest 3 spots,
1. I picked Sami as Azhar's partner. More than anything, he has toured UK once and played few Tests there. I think, toughest 2 batting jobs are opening in ENG (that too early summer) and batting in middle order in IND. Sami has the experience, and in a 2 Test series Fakhar or Imam won't get much experience.
2. Fahim over Shadab - in late May, Shadab isn't going to bowl more than Haris. He is too inexperienced and most likely he'll struggle to grip the ball. May be in 2nd Test at Leeds, he can come but not at Lord's. I think, Lord's Test will be short - may be 4 days, therefore PAK isn't going to bowl more than 200 overs. If 3 pacers can't do it, replacing Fahim with Abbas won't work either; but Fahim can bat and he is much faster. 150 overs form 3 pacers, 35 from Fahim and 15 for Haris - batting from Fahim is bonus over Abbas.
3. Asad doesn't want to move out of 6, hence he should be kept there, as he is performing at 6. That makes Sarfraz to bat at 7, which I don't want - he'll face the 2nd ball immediately and he isn't the striker to add crucial additional 50/60 with tail. So, I'll play him at 5, making the youngster debut at 7. Among Saad & Usman, I think Saad is more attacking and in top form, which should make him ideal No. 7. If it was No. 3 or 4, I probably would have gone with Usman, but for lower middle order Saad is my choice - he scored almost a thousand runs on shocking wickets at 75+ SR, which makes him ideal candidate for 7.
Among 3 pacers, if Abbas is to play, I'll actually drop Hasan rather Rahat. On song Rahat is more penetrative than even Amir, and he is the only guy over 6' in this squad.