Cpt. Rishwat
T20I Captain
- Joined
- May 8, 2010
- Runs
- 40,818
Britain’s legal migration numbers matter more than small boats
Stop the boats! If you’ve been paying attention, you may just have noticed that this is a core priority for the government. In fact some of its members go even further. In a speech last week the immigration minister Robert Jenrick insisted that “there is no more important issue in our domestic politics than the question of who gets to come to this country and in what numbers”.
But much less attention has been paid to what is, numerically, a much bigger issue: the extraordinary growth of migration via perfectly legal routes.
Between June 2021 and June 2022 net migration hit a record 504,000 people — roughly 1.1 million long-term arrivals, set against 560,000 departures.
We don’t yet have the next set of figures, covering 2022 as a whole. But we already know, from the Home Office’s visa statistics, that the number coming in has increased to more than 1.3 million. Part of this is down to the issuing of roughly 210,000 visas under the Ukraine scheme. But the main driver is a huge post-pandemic surge in the numbers arriving to work and study, which rose from 239,000 and 435,000 in 2021 to 423,000 and 626,000 in 2022. Both are record highs, by a very long way.
What has also changed is where these arrivals are coming from. Over the past couple of years migration from the EU has been basically flat. But migration from outside it has soared. And, as Neil O’Brien pointed out before he became a Tory minister, there has been a shift within that non-EU category towards south Asia and Nigeria. Since 2019 work visas for Indians have doubled and student visas have quadrupled. India now tops the table for work visas, student visas and visitor visas.
This shift is also apparent in the job market. Since the start of 2021 the number of PAYE jobs filled by EU workers has remained flat, at 2.5 million. Yet the number filled by non-EU workers has risen from just over 2 million to almost 3 million. In London, where 37 per cent of the population now were born outside the UK, the number of payrolled employees grew by 152,000 between December 2021 and 2022. But only 40,000 of those were from the UK. A full 120,000 came from outside the EU, and the number of EU workers actually shrank by 8,000.
What does this mean for net migration? We don’t have the number of departures yet. But unless there has been a huge deviation from existing trends, my colleagues at the Centre for Policy Studies (CPS) think tank estimate that the 2022 figure will be at least 700,000, which would be more than double the pre-Brexit record. If the number leaving falls back towards the levels of the 2010s, net migration could reach a million. Even taking the Ukrainians into account, these are unprecedented numbers.
Now, you can argue, as I would, that opening our doors to Ukraine and Hong Kong was absolutely the right thing, morally and politically. That soaring numbers of international students will deliver an economic bonanza to our universities, before heading home as lifetime friends of the UK. That the crisis-stricken NHS and care system is increasingly dependent on foreign staff, not least because they don’t make such a fuss about pay rises.
But you don’t have to be Nigel Farage to see that immigration on this scale creates challenges. For one thing, it is emphatically not what voters were promised. David Cameron pledged to reduce net migration to the “tens of thousands”. The Brexit campaign promised to “take back control” amid warnings of “continued out-of-control migration”, not least from supposed Turkish accession to the EU. The Tories’ 2019 manifesto explicitly promised that “overall numbers will come down”.
Admittedly, the most notable thing about this latest surge in migration has been the public’s failure to pick up the pitchforks in response. When Farage warned that “London, Manchester and Birmingham are now all minority white cities”, Sajid Javid tweeted back: “So what?” Within Whitehall a Treasury obsessed with increasing the size of the labour force is scarcely going to turn down extra workers — though, as the Migration Advisory Committee has noted, the new arrivals tend to work in different sectors from the EU migrants they are replacing; hence the continued recruitment difficulties in many areas.
Yet there are still landmines ahead. In Jenrick’s speech, for which he was pilloried by some on the left as a latter-day Enoch Powell, he warned that excessive, uncontrolled illegal migration could erode national identity, damage social trust and community cohesion and put pressure on infrastructure and public services. The same arguments apply just as well to legal migration.
Consider the housing market. The notorious 300,000-a-year target for housebuilding in England was based on an assumption that net migration would run at 170,000 a year. As the CPS pointed out in 2021, actual migration had been far higher — to the point where we should have added 40,000 homes to the target. And if you plug in that latest figure of 504,000, you end up needing to increase the target to 430,000 new homes a year.
Now, immigration is emphatically not the cause of the housing crisis. Even without it we would still need many more homes. And even if we slashed net migration to zero overnight, we would still need to build homes for the people who have already arrived. But it is hideously difficult to persuade people to accept new housing in their village when they suspect it will all be snapped up by incomers. Indeed, I’ve seen polling showing that among those Britons who agree we have a housing crisis (the overwhelming majority), the most popular explanation is “increased immigration”.
It’s not just about housing, though. Recent polling for the CPS showed that for 27 per cent of voters immigration is one of the most important issues facing society; the figure rises to more than 40 per cent among Tory and Leave voters. Among voters as a whole 59 per cent believe immigration has been too high over the past decade, and just 9 per cent say it has been too low.
Whenever people accuse the UK of being a backward, prejudiced country, I always point to our extraordinary record of welcoming and assimilating immigration. My children and I are among the millions of Britons who wouldn’t exist without it. But, for all the focus on the boats in the Channel, it is those coming in perfectly legally who are the bigger story — and will do far more to reshape Britain.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...umbers-matter-more-than-small-boats-cztbsdhbv
I think I speak for all my fellow Brits and like minded cultural purists who feel alarmed at the threat to our culture through legal immigration due to Brexit. This is a sensitive topic which needs to be discussed thoughtfully and honestly.