Over-estimations of fourth innings pressure

[CricketAnalyst]

To a very large extent people are now just taking at gospel that 4th innings chases are impossible and everything is competitive, without taking into account what makes them tough; bad wickets, or batting that's out of form.

Just in one day, commentators thought Australia chasing 265 against Bangladesh was a conversation separate from 'reality', and Joe Root declared leaving a side to score 322 in 100 overs after his own side just scored 490 and his tail-enders were batting with no difficulty at all.

What does this say about the state of cricket analysis, now that these targets are looking within reach with tons of wickets left?

 

[Saj]

Depends on the pitch.

Some pitches in certain parts of the world are dustbowls after 20 overs and batting in the 4th innings on those is an extremely tough ask.

 

[Monsee]

With all due respect, Indian posters should not be saying anything bad about the state of pitches on the 5th day (4th innings chase) because:

- If on Indian soil, the ball would be turning miles by then with puff of dust kicking at every ball drop and due to the strength of their batters at home, they rarely ever get to chase a total or a significant one at that. Then their tigers at home spinners just have to land the ball at good lengths and let the pitch do the rest to bowl most teams out. Relatively bad batting techniques against spin these days means they (India) usually end up on the winning side

- If not on Indian soil, most if not all matches involving Indian team, against a stonger opposition are usually over by end of 4th day (or earlier), so why would Indian posters look at 4th innings chases the same way as all others including experts look at? I mean if you rarely ever are exposed to the tense matches, why would you look positively at performances by others?

 

[jnaveen1980]

If only 4th innings chases were easier there would have been so many successful 300 plus chases. Most of them happened in the recent years. Not all 4th innings chases are harder. Infact in NZ best time to bat is on day 5. After day 1 it will become a flat road. Same way pitches like Lords, St Johns are roads all 5 days. Mostly they win due to scoreboard pressure. One of the reason these days it is possible because the wickets we get stay true right till day 5. India almost pulled off a miracle at the Adelaide oval. Umpiring blunders cost them. Same way Fauf duplessis and ABDV defied India almost all day and turned the tables and even had a chance to win against India on day 5 where the batting was getting easier by the day.

 

[TestMatch]

642 teams have been set over 300 runs in a final innings chase, 29 have been successful. That is a 4.5% success rate.