Kianig89
Senior Test Player
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So after Shell, Total also planning to exit Pakistan these are two of petro-giants, so much for sifc
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Good luck to Pakistan, and all the Pakistani posters on PP who reside in Pakistan.IMF board to discuss Pakistan’s programme on Sept 25: spokesperson
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Thursday confirmed that the Fund’s board will meet on September 25 to discuss the $7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) to Pakistan.
Pakistan expected to secure a deal with the Fund in August after the lender approved the 37-month programme agreed upon in July. The country also raised its tax revenue target by a record 40 per cent and hiked energy prices to meet the global lender’s demands.
The country also completed its previous $3 billion loan programme in April and secured a credit rating upgrade from both Moody’s Ratings and Fitch Ratings late last month.
Addressing a press briefing today, IMF’s spokesperson Julie Kozack said that the Fund had reached a staff-level agreement with Pakistan on the EFF in July.
“We are very happy that we can say now that the board meeting is scheduled to take place on September 25,” she said.
“This is following Pakistan obtaining the necessary financing assurances from its development partners. The new EFF arrangement… follows the successful implementation of the 2023 nine-month standby arrangement.”
She added that consistent policymaking has supported economic stability in Pakistan, most notably a resumption of growth, significant disinflation, and a significant increase in the country’s international reserves.
Asked if Pakistan has received those assurances, she responded, “Yes.”
The State Bank (SBP) Governor Jameel Ahmad had earlier said that the country arranged over $2 billion in financing from lenders other than the IMF, adding that the external financing was seen as the “final hurdle” for the loan, according to a report published by Bloomberg today.
The SBP governor made these remarks at an analyst briefing after announcing the slashed policy rate on Thursday.
“All those assurances and external financing have already been arranged by the government and I don’t see any further hurdle now in taking our case to the board,” said Ahmad.
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, while addressing a meeting of the federal cabinet earlier in the day, had said that negotiations with the IMF were “progressing positively”, the state broadcaster, Radio Pakistan reported.
The prime minister also thanked friendly countries for “overwhelmingly supporting Pakistan”, the report said, adding that he also stressed the need to rid the country of the loans and put it on its own feet.
Source: Dawn News
We are the kings of taking loans to pay off other loans.The government has struck a $600 million commercial loan deal with a European bank at double-digit interest rate – the highest in the country's history – to qualify for approval of a $7 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout package.
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Govt takes loan at highest rate
The government has struck a $600 million commercial loan deal with a European bank at double-digit interest rate – the highest in the country's history – to qualify for approval of a $7 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout package.
The Ministry of Finance had to swallow the bitter pill of paying the highest-ever interest rate after it could not get any additional financing from the bilateral sovereign creditors, said government sources.
The government has accepted the term sheet of Standard Chartered Bank, London, for two loans totaling $600 million, according to the sources. The country would pay the highest interest rate of around 11%, they said.
Of the total, $300 million has been obtained for liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply and another $300 million is syndicate financing.
The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR)-based interest cost is the highest that Pakistan will pay on any foreign commercial loan. The Ministry of Finance was initially reluctant to strike the deal because of its implications for future foreign commercial financing.
Attempts were also made to take additional loans from bilateral creditors but there was no positive response, according to officials. The government tried to avoid the expensive path but was left with no option after it found all other avenues closed.
However, the bilateral creditors agreed to roll over $12 billion worth of cash deposits, which paved the way for securing the date of September 25 for considering Pakistan's case in the IMF Executive Board meeting.
IMF Director for Communication Julie Kozack said on Thursday, "We are very happy that we can say now that the board meeting is scheduled to take place on September 25. And this is following Pakistan obtaining necessary financing assurances from its development partners."
Kozack said that the new Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement that will be subject to the board approval follows the successful implementation of the 2023 nine-month standby arrangement.
Consistent policymaking has supported economic stability in Pakistan, most notably the resumption of growth, significant disinflation, and significant increase in the country's international reserves, she added.
In early August, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb revealed that Pakistan had an offer for a foreign commercial bank loan but he would try that the government got the loan after approval of the IMF package to ensure a lower interest rate.
From 2017 to 2021, Standard Chartered Bank gave four different loan facilities totaling $1.9 billion. Since 2021, it has not given any new loan. In 2017, the bank gave a $700 million loan at a fixed interest rate of 4.5%. In 2019, it lent $200 million at the London Inter-bank Offered Rate (Libor) plus a 3.25% margin. The bank also offered two facilities of $1 billion at Libor plus 2.4% interest rate.
Despite improving Pakistan's ratings, the international credit rating agencies still see lending to the country as highly risky and have placed it in the "C" category.
There was no other choice but to take the loan as lenders were not willing to extend funding at lower rates, said senior government officials. The finance minister and the finance secretary will travel to London next week to attend a seminar being arranged by JPMorgan Pakistan. The minister is expected to sell the story of Pakistan's turnaround and the stability the IMF programme will bring.
The country needs more foreign financing in the coming years as it will be facing the mammoth task of arranging $26 billion annually to repay debt and remain afloat. For this fiscal year, the central bank governor has said that the external debt repayment will be $26 billion, including the $16 billion that Pakistan will not pay and is expected to be rolled over.
IMF's Julie Kozack said that it is critical that Pakistani authorities recognise, and they do recognise, that consistent implementation of the new EFF is going to be necessary to successfully and sustainably stabilise the economy and pave the way for stronger and sustainable growth.
She said that it is so important to have stronger and sustainable growth to create job opportunities, especially for the young people or people who are looking to improve their standard of living.
Kozack said that the new programme is really aiming to build on this momentum and ultimately create a sustainable environment for strong growth and job creation, for the benefit of the Pakistani people, so they can reach their aspirations.
Govt takes loan at highest rate | The Express Tribune
Deal for $600m commercial bank loan paves way for IMF board meetingtribune.com.pk
Does it mean that Pakistan has thrown in the towel? its not like it has a critical mass of educated workforce to build an economy or will for the next couple of decades (based on kids school attendance)We are the kings of taking loans to pay off other loans.
Not thrown in the towel. There is enough educated people to start to pull the country in the right direction and effect change. It will require leadership thoughDoes it mean that Pakistan has thrown in the towel? its not like it has a critical mass of educated workforce to build an economy or will for the next couple of decades (based on kids school attendance)
Selling yourself to the highest bidder is not exactly positive sign...when it has been in practice fro 5+ decadesNot thrown in the towel.
Really? huh.There is enough educated people to start to pull the country in the right direction and effect change.
so.... it s dead end.It will require leadership though
The fix is to convert debt into equity grants in state owned enterprises. Pakistan is there somewhat in that they are selling off state owned enterprises like PIA, but the ultimate fix would be to swapping the debt for equity stakes. They can not only reduce the debt burden by doing this but also get away from bleeding cash by funding these over bloated state owned enterprises.Question for Pak posters who follow their economy
in 2023
>>>Pakistan has succeeded in a decent export figure of $27.724 billion during FY23. Imports stood significantly higher at $55.198 billion during FY23.<<
>>>Remittance inflows of $26.3 billion in 2023 marked a downward 11.7 per cent yearly change<<
Debt interest: I have read its ~$5 billion per year
Revenue= exports+remittance = ~$54 Billion/year
Expense = Imports + dent interest = ~$60 billion/year
shortfall = ~$5 billion /year
This has been the trend for a while
Pakistan Total External Debt
External Debt in Pakistan increased to 130502 USD Million in the second quarter of 2024 from 130412 USD Million in the first quarter of 2024. This page provides - Pakistan External Debt - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.tradingeconomics.com
Even if one assumed there is no new debt, the interest alone is sink pak economy.
Al those who are optimistic, what is the fix?
what is goign to disruo this downward spiral. CPEC was supposed to be the game changer. Is there an another game changer in the horizon?
So what is worth buying in pakistan for $131B? All your state owned enterprises are loss makers.The fix is to convert debt into equity grants in state owned enterprises. Pakistan is there somewhat in that they are selling off state owned enterprises like PIA, but the ultimate fix would be to swapping the debt for equity stakes. They can not only reduce the debt burden by doing this but also get away from bleeding cash by funding these over bloated state owned enterprises.
Nothing is worth that much but we can make a sizeable dent. What’s good for the buyer is the same for any distressed asset, long term growth potential. The buyer will have full control over the asset as Pak would have to sell it off completely or a major share. What is better for the lender, the risk of Pakistan defaulting on their loans or a physical asset that can be turned around over the long term?So what is worth buying in pakistan for $131B? All your state owned enterprises are loss makers.
I understand selling equity would be good for Pak, but what good is it for the buyer?
what is the point of buying equity if you have no control over how its run and has a track record of major losses year after year and uncontrolled corruption?
If I can do the math, so can potential buyers.
Is there any long term growth potential with the decades long political uncertainty ( which has no end in sight) and with 25% of young kids out of school?Nothing is worth that much but we can make a sizeable dent. What’s good for the buyer is the same for any distressed asset, long term growth potential.
Will establishment ever allow that?The buyer will have full control over the asset as Pak would have to sell it off completely or a major share.
Physical asset? as in land? equity in state owned enterprise is not a physical assetWhat is better for the lender, the risk of Pakistan defaulting on their loans or a physical asset that can be turned around over the long term?
Forecasted GDP growth is 2-3% for the next couple of years. For the short to medium term it’s modest but the long term potential is there.Is there any long term growth potential with the decades long political uncertainty ( which has no end in sight) and with 25% of young kids out of school?
Will establishment ever allow that?
Physical asset? as in land? equity in state owned enterprise is not a physical asset
Assuming for a minute that debt is not an issue, Pak is still relying on workers remiittances to pay 50% of its bills. has been that way for decades now. is that tangible model for growth?
They didn’t sell PIA, they transferred the debt to the people.The fix is to convert debt into equity grants in state owned enterprises. Pakistan is there somewhat in that they are selling off state owned enterprises like PIA, but the ultimate fix would be to swapping the debt for equity stakes. They can not only reduce the debt burden by doing this but also get away from bleeding cash by funding these over bloated state owned enterprises.
Pakistan records 14% increase in exports
Pakistan’s exports recorded a significant 14 per cent increase in the beginning of this financial year due to the support of Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC).
According to the statistics, exports increased by 620 million dollars to reach 5.1 billion dollars in August.
Due to increase in exports, the country’s trade deficit has narrowed to 3.6 billion dollars from 3.751 billion dollars at the beginning of the current fiscal year.
Meanwhile, imports of high-duty items such as vehicles, home appliances, and other consumer goods such as garments, fabrics and footwear fell by 1.3 per cent in August.
With the support of SIFC, the government is considering various measures to increase domestic exports and stabilize the economy. Recently, a trade liberalization plan has been finalized to boost the country’s exports and economy.
The country’s external debt has decreased in the last few months as a result of government’s measures to strengthen the economy.
Pakistan records 14% increase in exports
Pakistan's exports recorded a significant 14 per cent increase in the beginning of this financial year due to the support of Special Investmentarynews.tv
I think there's a couple of things you're missing in your analysisQuestion for Pak posters who follow their economy
in 2023
>>>Pakistan has succeeded in a decent export figure of $27.724 billion during FY23. Imports stood significantly higher at $55.198 billion during FY23.<<
>>>Remittance inflows of $26.3 billion in 2023 marked a downward 11.7 per cent yearly change<<
Debt interest: I have read its ~$5 billion per year
Revenue= exports+remittance = ~$54 Billion/year
Expense = Imports + dent interest = ~$60 billion/year
shortfall = ~$5 billion /year
This has been the trend for a while
Pakistan Total External Debt
External Debt in Pakistan increased to 130502 USD Million in the second quarter of 2024 from 130412 USD Million in the first quarter of 2024. This page provides - Pakistan External Debt - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.tradingeconomics.com
Even if one assumed there is no new debt, the interest alone is sink pak economy.
Al those who are optimistic, what is the fix?
what is goign to disruo this downward spiral. CPEC was supposed to be the game changer. Is there a another game changer in the horizon?
Yea that’s correct however they got a much better deal from lenders to cut the interest rate on the debt in half. FYI, they split PIA into two companies; one is the holding company which contains the commercial debt and the other is the actual airline which they haven’t sold yet, the asset is still for sale.They didn’t sell PIA, they transferred the debt to the people.
They just transferred the ownership.
Feel to smack their faces for this level of inefficiency.Yea that’s correct however they got a much better deal from lenders to cut the interest rate on the debt in half. FYI, they split PIA into two companies; one is the holding company which contains the commercial debt and the other is the actual airline which they haven’t sold yet, the asset is still for sale.
Story of pretty much every state owned enterprise in Pakistan unfortunately.Feel to smack their faces for this level of inefficiency.
PIA went from a top airline to the biggest disaster with crew absconding issues.
2-3% is just enough to keep with population growth and inflation and how often has pakistan met the forecast?Forecasted GDP growth is 2-3% for the next couple of years. For the short to medium term it’s modest but the long term potential is there.
How many planes does PIA own? don't they lease most of the planes? They don't own airports. so what is the physical asset.Physical assets as in an airline for example.
KThis is a key IMF recommendation that Pakistan is following through on. Around 40% of Pakistan’s current GDP is tied up in these bloated organizations. There are 25 or so of these state owned enterprises ranging from the power sector, distribution, insurance etc.
Could you clarify? I'm not sure what you are trying to say there.“Assuming for a minute debt is no longer an issue,” then the 50% remittance figure will naturally have a lower contributing percentage for growth.
If you CAD is significantly negative for a decade or more, how exactly are you going to build up you forex reserves?I think there's a couple of things you're missing in your analysis
- You're thinking current account deficit. There's inflows (and outflows) on the capital account that have to be taken into consideration. For example, India's current account deficit is upwards of $5B a quarter. However, India's been building reserves for years so obviously we're experiencing net inflows on the capital account. Pakistan could theoretically do the same
They have gone to the IMF 20+ times and never completed single program. Who is left to lend?- Pakistan's external debt to GDP ratio, while not good at ~36% is certainly not catastrophic. Theoretically, if they had viable lenders they could continue to borrow for a while
Wasn't that what happened with inflows from WOT thro' CSF funds and pause on debt repayment for Mush putting out to W?In the short to medium term, Pakistan has only one option - push out interest repayments as far as possible reprofiling the debt and borrowing (mainly from the IMF, China & the Saudis) to balance the remaining deficit.
In exchange for what exactly?In the longer term, they'll have to work on a bunch of things. -
- As @offstump said, they'll have to convert some of the debt to equity. Sri Lanka sold China it's port. Pakistan can consider something similar. Maybe they can even get some debt forgiveness
Wasn't CPEC supposed to be game changer? why would China throw good money after bad money? I can the taking equity for some of what is owed. maybe. I odn;t see any FDI from China. Maybe more guranteed return high interest loans- They'll have to bring in some money on the Capital account - especially FDI, mainly from China.
such as? Does pakistan have the skilled workforce that will work like the chinese work force? doubt it.I think labour's getting increasingly expensive in China. Pakistan will have to position itself as China's source of cheap labour and therefore persuade the Chinese government to relocate some of their most low value add, labour intensive industries to their close ally. That'll have the added benefit of increasing export revenues.
very hard path with ~30% of kids not getting primary education- They'll have to continue maintaining rigid controls on imports
It's a hard path.
Good question. Maybe they can ask IndiaIf you CAD is significantly negative for a decade or more, how exactly are you going to build up you forex reserves?
Pakistan will just have to beg I guess. The leaders have gotten pretty good at it and there's really no other option.Regarding IMF China and Saudi's none of them are in the mood
Natural resources are the only thing left. Mines, ports - stuff like that.In exchange for what exactly?
SL is staring down the barrel
That's true. They'll have to identify the least skilled stuff - whatever garment manufacturing is left in China, fiddly toy making, coal mining.such as? Does pakistan have the skilled workforce that will work like the chinese work force? doubt it.
Source for this would who or what?Essentially, make up the difference on the capital account.
External borrowings - governmental and non-governmental, FDI, FPI. Sems far-fetched today but takes only a few years of stability for things to change. Vietnam looked a basket case but is now the darling of macro-economists.Source for this would who or what?
couple of points. external borrowings means more debt and more interest. Its great if you can turn that into productivityExternal borrowings - governmental and non-governmental, FDI, FPI. Sems far-fetched today but takes only a few years of stability for things to change. Vietnam looked a basket case but is now the darling of macro-economists.
Whether Pakistan can do it, who knows? It's tough to be optimistic but the prescription is there.
true, and that is best that any political system can hope to bring. Economy will not recover unless common people, businessmen and investors see a political stability. Imran khan with is attitude had burned bridges with everyone and brought the country to a brink to serve his own selfish needs. Good to see some stability and hope for people of Pakistan. Irrespective how much I hate Pakistan military and governments, common people shouldn't suffer due these irresponsible leaders whose only motive is powerSay whatever there is a sense of calm and assurance in Pakistan since last many months ever since Imran Khan got locked up.
Pakistan is scheduled to sign agreements worth around $2 billion with a visiting Saudi delegation later this month, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said on Tuesday
A delegation from Saudi Arabia is expected in the country before the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) meeting that the country is hosting from Oct 15-16, he said.
The Saudi delegation, led by Minister for Investment Khalid Bin Abdulaziz Al-Falih, is set to visit Pakistan from Oct 9 to 11.
It is expected to include representatives from both government agencies and the private sector, signalling a broadening of Pakistan-Saudi economic partnerships.
During the federal cabinet meeting, the prime minister listed several positive developments such as China, UAE and Saudi helping the country successfully clinch the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme by providing timely confirmation of necessary financing assurances.
Additionally, he said that the Malaysian prime minister “had a very successful visit” and that a Saudi delegation was about to visit the country.
Regarding PTI clashes with the police in Islamabad during the SCO moot, the prime minister stressed that this was being done to “stay relevant” because the economy was improving.
“This is the same steps being taken again as the IMF programme has been started successfully, inflation has decreased and exports are increasing,” he said, adding that their “homegrown growth programme is being sabotaged”.
In August, it was reported that Pakistan had requested Saudi Arabia to increase its lending by about $1.5 billion from its existing $5bn portfolio to help bridge the external financing gap needed for the IMF’s 37-month bailout package.
All three friendly bilateral partners — Saudi Arabia, China and the UAE — had confirmed to the IMF their $12bn loan rollovers to Pakistan.
‘Rs190bn loss per day due to law and order situation’: Aurangzeb
Meanwhile, Finance Minister Muhammed Aurangzeb said during a televised address that the recent PTI clash in Islamabad and the Karachi attack on Chinese citizens had not only led to a loss of human lives but also caused significant damage to the economy.
“We’ve brought economic stability so we can go towards growth,” he said. “If you are doing it [protests] for the country, then you need to think about the impact of it on the economy.”
“In Islamabad alone, 800,000 families have suffered because of this strife,” he stressed, asking people to come to the table to negotiate instead.
As for the economic losses, the finance minister that there was a “Rs190 billion loss per day, including GDP, business disruption, and IT losses,” due to the law and order situation.
Regarding the terrorist attack in Karachi, which resulted in the deaths of two Chinese nationals, the finance minister said, “Yesterday, our Chinese brothers who were killed, whose precious lives were wasted, we cannot estimate a cost on them.”
“I express my condolences to the government of China and the people of China,” he said, adding that those who lost their lives were independent power producer (IPP) engineers with whom the power minister and he were negotiating with for debt reprofiling.
Source: Dawn News
Never. Pakistan chose to be rent seeker from its inception with Jinnah positioning Pak as a geostrategic bulwark against communism.When is this begging going to stop?
Stats that would keep decision up at night but in PKGround reality is.......
Poverty level rises to 40% in Pakistan
Every Pakistani I.e 27 crore people is in national debt of Rs. 300,000/- each.
Unemployed rate is sky rocketed.
Farmers are in dissent, there will be shortage of crops during next season.
Income inequality has increased manifolds,one military subsidiary organisation has two rules for person working in same grade.
Civilian salary is only 70% of that to what military person is getting form same appointment same work.
Bank robbery is also increasing so are Street crimes.
Around 16 National institutes the chairman/Ceo/ Heads are replaced with Military person being given the positions.
@Bewal Express take note
A great idea but who will protect us from the mafia? Who will protect us from the kidnapping by the ISI like IKs lawyer for the last 2 weeks? Who will protect us if the judges are controlledPM Shehbaz encourages UK investors to explore opportunities in Pakistan
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has emphasised that attracting foreign investment is the government's top priority. He made these remarks while meeting with a delegation of prominent UK business figures, led by Zuber Issa, in Lahore on Sunday.
During the meeting, the PM highlighted the government's efforts to provide optimal facilities to the business community through the Special Investment Facilitation Council's (SIFC) one-window operation.
He noted that the country's economy has shown signs of improvement in recent weeks, a trend he attributed to government initiatives that have bolstered investor confidence.
Sharif encouraged the delegation to invest in Pakistan, underscoring the potential for fruitful ventures within the country. The discussion also covered new avenues for cooperation and enhancing business-to-business relations between Pakistan and the United Kingdom.
The visiting delegation expressed their approval of the PM's economic policies, voicing confidence in the stability and sustainable development of Pakistan's economy.
PM Shehbaz encourages UK investors to explore opportunities in Pakistan | The Express Tribune
Discussion with UK business delegation also covered new avenues and enhancing B2B relations between Pakistan and UK.tribune.com.pk