If Mir Hamza plays our chances are 0%.
Otherwise 5%.
Mir Hamza would be a terrible selection.
I would go with:
ATTRITIONAL ELEVEN: designed to make big totals and rely on scoreboard pressure.
1. Abdullah Shafique
2. Shan Masood (c)
3. Mohammad Rizwan
4. Babar Azam
5. Saud Shakeel
6. Agha Salman
7. Sarfraz Ahmed (wk)
8. Faheem Ashraf
9. Hasan Ali
10. Nauman Ali
11. Shaheen Shah Afridi
That is one pace bowler down on the ideal team, but there is no decent alternative pace bowler anyway.
The only difference from my first choice team is that I'd rather have a fit Naseem Shah as a fourth quick instead of Nauman Ali, and I'd pick Shadab Khan or Mohammad Nawaz at Number 7 instead of Sarfraz Ahmed.
The main alternative for me is whether you drop Sarfraz Ahmed and select Mohammad Wasim instead as a fourth quick. But that weakens the batting somewhat.
ATTACKING ELEVEN: designed to take more wickets at Perth
1. Abdullah Shafique
2. Shan Masood (c)
3. Agha Salman
4. Babar Azam
5. Saud Shakeel
6. Mohammad Rizwan (wk)
7. Mohammad Nawaz - but he wasn't selected for the tour!
8. Faheem Ashraf
9. Hasan Ali
10. Mohammad Wasim
11. Shaheen Shah Afridi
I don't really like Sarfraz Ahmed as a batsman in Aussie conditions because the requirement is to play no shot when Hazlewood and Cummins bowl outside off-stump, yet Sarfraz flashes at every delivery. If I have to choose between him and Rizwan, Rizwan starts automatically in Australia.
Compare their Test batting records in Australia:
Sarfraz Ahmed: 4 matches, 232 runs at 38.66
Mohammad Rizwan: 2 matches, 177 runs at 44.25.
The problem is that Pakistan has arrived far too late and played far too little red ball cricket in Australia going into the First Test. They were 62 all out in Perth in 1981-82, with only Sarfraz Nawaz reaching double figures, and this terrible preparation could have the same effect.
But all is not lost. If Rizwan plays, this is the best Pakistan Test batting line-up ever to tour Australia, and yes, I did watch Asif Iqbal, Zaheer Abbas, Javed Miandad, Mohsin Khan, Inzamam and Mohammad Yousuf.
The bowling is a problem, but fortunately for Pakistan, most of the Aussie batsmen are well past their peaks and may not be able to cash in.