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Prediction thread: Which current bowler is likely to get 400 Test wickets?

Chrish

Chrish

First Class Captain
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My prediction:

Stuert Broad: bit obvious

Ashwin: would be surprised if he doesn't get 500+

Rabada: most exiting prospect
 
Why don't we compare young guns instead of having a bowler who is already in the 300s?
 
I do back Ash to break Anil's Indian record of 619. He is around 31, committed & hungry - on top of that, he'll play at least 8 Tests every year at home - that's 60 -70 more Tests in IND for ~350 wickets + add another 150 away - he should reach close to Warne, if not Murali. On top of that, should reach either side of 5K runs as well.

After Jimmi, no fast bowler will beat Walshi, let alone Mac - they'll go to PLs & SLs for cheap money. Even Styen is struggling to reach 500. It takes lot more effort to play 125 Tests, but Rabada, might reach 400. Finn lost few years, otherwise at the rate ENG plays, he should have reached 400. Amir went for "haram" money, otherwise he would have definitely beaten Wasim's PAK record, even at PAK's customary 8 Tests/year.

Sakib can end up as the 1st all-rounder with 400+ wickets & 600+ runs. He is 31 now, a spinner & plays for a weaker team - even at 40, he might remain automatic choice. The shift in our Test strategy indicates, he'll play average 4/5 home Tests on turners every year & may be equal number away - that's another 80 to 100 Tests. Even if I take 75 Tests, that's around 250-300 wickets & 4K+ runs = 450 wickets & 7K runs. If he can bring that bowling average to <30 & batting average to 40+ - will finish as the best ever pure spin bowling all-rounder.
 
MMHS mind you sakib will dream of 400 wickets, you guys play Max 4/5 tests a year, even in this year you play only 2 tests as far as amir goes now we didnot play customary 7 tests, in this year we play 12 tests, in 2017 we will play 10 tests+3 tests in India{ not sure about that} in 2018 we will play 13 tests so how you say we play customary 7 tests a year, I admit that in Past we play less, but now we are playing more but slightly lesser than India, England and AUssies...................
 
I would back Yasir to get 400, of course Broad will reach the milestone, he will also get 500 because England play much more tests than any other nation. Steyn should reach 400 as should Ashwin.

For ourselves, I would back Amir to reach 400, even though we play fewer tests than any one else bar Bangladesh and probably the Windies. Other than Amir and Yasir, I see no one from Pakistan reaching the mile stone.
 
Spin
Yasir
Ashwin
Shakib
Moeen

Prospects
Miraz


Fast bowling
Broad

Prospects
Rabada
Starc
Amir
Hazelwood
 
Last edited by a moderator:
400 wickets is beyond modern bowlers.
Modern bowlers average 4 wickets per test, unlike the past legends who used to average 4.8 to 5.2 wickets per test, plus modern bowlers get injured more due to silly T20 exhaustion.

Of the current bowlers, Herath will get there if he plays another 10 tests.

After him, it'll be Broad.

Ashwin will be next, if he manages to play another 4 years and 40 tests injury-free.

Starc, Rabada, Hazelwood etc will not play beyond another 6-7 years, 40-45 tests, and 200 wickets more.

Ashwin will be the LAST 400 wicket holder in tests.
 
Perth93 said:
400 wickets is beyond modern bowlers.
Modern bowlers average 4 wickets per test, unlike the past legends who used to average 4.8 to 5.2 wickets per test, plus modern bowlers get injured more due to silly T20 exhaustion.

Of the current bowlers, Herath will get there if he plays another 10 tests.

After him, it'll be Broad.

Ashwin will be next, if he manages to play another 4 years and 40 tests injury-free.

Starc, Rabada, Hazelwood etc will not play beyond another 6-7 years, 40-45 tests, and 200 wickets more.

Ashwin will be the LAST 400 wicket holder in tests.
Click to expand...

Hazlewood is 26 has no significant history of injury and has played 23 tests in the two years since his test debut and Australia normally play about 12 tests a year.
 
Broad n Herath will get 400

Too early to say about Rabada n haze,yes they're showing lot of flare in start but an injury is enough to ruin everything

Anderson will most probably surpass walsh and with the amount of tests eng plays who knows may be mcgra too if he stays fit

Personally i would like to see steyn hitting 500 without harming his ecstatic stats but that looks tough in current scenario
 
LOL at the people saying Amir! at the rate he is getting wickets now he will need to be playing Test for another 20 years. He is no chance sadly. Should get 200. But there is a chance he could be dropped despite people saying he is bowling tidy...... you need wickets and he's just not a wicket taker.

He needs to take a break and put on some muscle to increase his pace
 
Think Starc will, what a athlete he is, in Tests after already bowling 20+ overs he can still bowl 150kph.
Not even Brett Lee or Shoab could do that........

He is definatly the most lethal bowler in the world
 
Hazelwood - He is still young, injury free and does not require pace to get wickets, best prospect to get 400 wickets. He is in the mould of McGrath.

Broad - He is almost there already.

Ashwin - He has a good chance too, since India plays lot more test than teams like Pakistan and India.

Its very difficult for Pakistani bowler to take 400 wickets, we play 6/8 test a year, you need to play 10/12 for bowlers and batsmen to have 400 wickets and 10K runs.
 
Yasir Shah
R Ashwin
Mohammad Amir
Rangana Herath
Rabada
Starc
Stuart Broad
 
Yeah good point about Hazlewood. Herath also has a chance

Don't think Starc will. He relies more on pace and I can see that going down after 30. Expect him to finish the same way as MJ.

Off topic but don't see Steyn hitting 450 let alone 500. Don't expect to get jimmy 500 either
 
Ashwin, Yasir and Rabada. Would have loved to include Starc too, but I am not too sure about his body lasting that long.
 
Both Yasir and Ashwin will take around 500 wickets but it is highly unlikely that they will surpass Kumble, Warne, and Murali.
 
Would be somewhat disappointed if Kagiso Rabada doesn't reach that milestone over the next decade (usual caveats apply on fitness).
 
Last Monetarist said:
Would be somewhat disappointed if Kagiso Rabada doesn't reach that milestone over the next decade (usual caveats apply on fitness).
Click to expand...

My main worry is should he be playing test cricket at this tender age? I am not a fitness expert but reckon they should have waited couple more years before allowing his debut
 
Definitely: ( among the newones, including Ashwin )

Hazlewood
Starc
Rabada
Ashwin

Likey:
Amir

Unlikely;
Yasir
Shakib
 
Ashwin will get there if he is not injured.

yasir and Amir have chance , but need to play really well.
 
Mithchal Starc if he didn't got serious injury
Ashwin if his action was not reported
Yasir Shah if he got more matches on asian soil
 
Haha lol at Amir being mentioned. Bechare bache kay peechay pad gaye. Though some say it sarcastically.

Hazlewood because he seems the likeliest to have the skillset + longevity fitness wise.

Starc could but i don't see him staying injury free. Might go the Waqar route.

Rabada debuted early and has the skill and plenty of time to make it happen.

I'm not sure about Ashwin or Yasir. Former can def go down as an allrounder great at this rate.
 
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