The next 2023 Cricket World Cup in India I going to be the second edition with this current format where 10 teams play each other in league stages and then top four advances to Knock-Out stages. Officially, India has already qualified as hosts, and top seven teams from 2020–22 ICC Cricket World Cup Super League will advance to the Tournament stage directly; last 5 will fight it out with lower league teams for last two spots. In any case, India would have been among top eight, therefore effectively top eight sides from ICC World Cup Super League are guaranteed a spot in Tournament stage.
It’s still almost 3 years for the World Cup and the Super League will continue till March 2022, may be even later as they will have to schedule few deferred series for this on going pandemic issue. It’s probably premature to look into the World Cup, but on current state of affairs, predictable developments, changes by the participants, we can look into the possible results of the series planned for each team (eight series each) and predict a point table. It’s definitely not conclusive and lots of factors might change the predictable outcome, but the final projected table should give an idea. Here, I am looking into teams by home and away, with possible best, worst & probable series results to draw a final points table. Unlike Test Championships, here every Series has 3 games and they’ll use a tie-breaker to allocate points in tied game, therefore the equations are straight forward.
Here are the teams in alphabetic order (Points are given considering best case, expected, worst case scenario, in that order):
AFGHANISTAN:
Home: IRL (JAN 2021): 30, 20, 10// PAK (SEP 2021): 20, 10, 0// NED (DEC 2021): 30, 30, 20// AUS (MAR 2022): 10, 0, 0 Total: 90, 60, 30 = Average 60
Away: IND (MAR 2021): 0, 0, 0// SRL (JUL 2021): 10, 10, 0// BD (FEB 2022):20, 10, 0// ZIM (NOV 2021): 20, 10, 10. Total: 50, 30, 10 = Average 30.
Overall: 140, 90, 40. Average = 90, Expected: 80-90
AUSTRALIA:
Home: IND (NOV 2020): 30, 20, 10// NZL (JAN 2021): 30, 20, 20// SAF (JAN 2022): 30, 30, 20// ZIM (PP): 30, 30, 30 Total: 120, 100, 80 = Average: 100
Away: ENG (AUG 2020): 20// WIN (JUN 2021): 30, 30, 20// AFG (MAR 2022): 30, 30, 20// PAK (FEB 2022): 30, 30, 20 Total: 110, 110, 70. Average = 96.67
Overall: 230, 210, 160. Average = 200, Expected: 190-200
BANGLADESH:
Home: SRL (DEC 2020): 20, 20, 10// WIN (JAN 2021): 20, 20, 10// ENG (OCT 2021): 20, 10, 0// AFG (FEB 2022): 30, 20, 10// Total: 90, 70, 30 = Average: 63.33
Away: IRL (PP): 30, 20, 10// NZ (FEB 2021): 0, 0, 0// SAF (MAR 2022): 0, 0, 0// ZIM (JUN 2021): 30, 30, 20. Total: 70, 50, 20. Average = 46.67
Overall: 160, 120, 50. Average = 110, Expected 110-120
ENGLAND:
Home: IRL (JUN 2020): 20// AUS (AUG 2020): 10// SRL (JUN 2021): 30, 30, 20// PAK (JUL 2021): 30, 30, 20// Total: 90, 90, 70 = Average 80.33
Away: SAF (DEC 2020): 30, 20, 10// BD (OCT 2021): 30, 20, 10// IND (PP): 20, 20, 0// NED (MAY 2021): 30, 30, 30// Total: 110, 90, 50 = Average 80.33.
Overall: 200, 180, 120. Average = 166.67, Expected: 170-180
INDIA:
Home: AFG (MAR 2021): 30, 30, 30// ENG (PP): 30, 10, 10// SAF (OCT 2021): 30, 30, 20// WIN (JAN 2022): 30, 30, 20 Total: 120, 100, 80 = Average: 100
Away: AUS (NOV 2020): 20, 10, 0// NZL (MAR 2022): 20, 10, 10// SRL (PP): 30, 30, 20// ZIM (PP) 30, 30, 30. Total: 100, 80, 60. Average = 80
Overall: 220, 180, 140. Average = 180, Expected: 170-180
IRELAND:
Home: BD (PP): 20, 10, 0// NZL (PP): 10, 0, 0// SAF (JUN 2021): 10, 0, 0// ZIM (AUG 2021): 20, 20, 10// Total: 60, 30, 10 = Average: 33.33
Away: ENG (JUL 2021): 10// AFG (JAN 2021): 20, 10, 0// NED (JUN 2021): 20, 20, 10// WIN (JAN 2022): 10, 10, 0. Total: 60, 50, 20. Average = 43.33
Overall: 130, 80, 30. Average = 80, Expected 70-80
NETHERLANDS:
Home: ENG (MAY 2021): 0, 0, 0// IRL (JUN 2021): 20, 10, 10// PAK (PP): 10, 0, 0// SAF (JUN 2021): 10, 0, 0// Total: 40, 10, 10 = Average 20
Away: AFG (DEC 2021): 10, 0, 0// NZL (JAN 2022): 0, 0, 0// SAF (SEP 2021): 0, 0, 0// ZIM (PP): 20, 10, 10// Total: 30, 10, 10 = Average 16.33
Overall: 70, 20, 20. Average = 36.67, Expected: 40-50
NEWZELAND:
Home: BD (FEB 2021): 30, 30, 30// WIN (PP): 30, 20, 20// NED (JAN 2022): 30, 30, 30// IND (MAR 2022): 20, 20, 10 Total: 110, 100, 90 = Average: 100
Away: AUS (JAN 2021): 10, 10, 0// IRL (PP): 30, 30, 10// PAK (OCT 2021): 20, 20, 10// WIN (PP) 30, 20, 10. Total: 90, 80, 30. Average = 66.67
Overall: 200, 180, 120. Average = 166.67, Expected: 160-170
PAKISTAN:
Home: ZIM (OCT 2020): 20// NZL (OCT 2021): 20, 10, 10// WIN (DEC 2021): 20, 20, 10// AUS (FEB 2022): 10, 0, 0// Total: 70, 50, 40 = Average: 53.33
Away: SAF (APR 2021): 10, 10, 0// ENG (JUL 2021): 10, 0, 0// AFG (SEP 2021): 30, 20, 10// NED (PP): 30, 30, 20. Total: 80, 60, 30. Average = 56.67
Overall: 150, 110, 70. Average = 110, Expected 110-120
SOUTH AFRICA:
Home: ENG (DEC 2020): 20, 10, 0// PAK (APR 2021): 30, 20, 20// NED (SEP 2021): 30, 30, 30// BD (MAR 2022): 30, 30, 30. Total: 110, 90, 80 = Average: 93.33
Away: IRL (JUN 2021): 30, 30, 20// IND (OCT 2021): 10, 0, 0// SRL (PP): 20, 10, 10// AUS (JAN 2022): 10, 0, 0. Total: 70, 40, 30. Average = 46.67
Overall: 180, 130, 110. Average = 140, Expected 130-140
SRILANKA:
Home: AFG (JUL 2021): 30, 20, 20// IND (PP): 10, 0, 0// SAF (PP): 20, 10, 10// ZIM (PP): 30, 30, 20. Total: 90, 60, 50 = Average 66.67
Away: BD (DEC 2020): 20, 10, 10// NZL (FEB 2021): 10, 0, 0// ENG (JUN 2021): 10, 0, 0// WIN (FEB 2021): 20, 10, 10. Total: 60, 20, 20 = Average 33.33
Overall: 150, 80, 70. Average = 100, Expected: 100-110
WEST INDIES:
Home: AUS (JUN 2021): 10, 0, 0// SRL (FEB 2021): 20, 20, 10// IRL (JAN 2022): 30, 20, 20// NZL (PP): 10, 10, 0// Total: 70, 50, 30 = Average: 50
Away: BD (JAN 2021): 20, 10, 10// IRL (PP): 30, 30, 10// NED (PP): 30, 20, 20// IND (JAN 2022): 10, 0, 0// Total: 90, 60, 40. Average = 63.33
Overall: 170, 110, 70. Average = 113.33, Expected: 110-120
ZIMBABWE:
Home: BD (JUN 2021): 10, 0, 0// AFG (NOV 2021): 20, 20, 10// IND (PP): 0, 0, 0// NED (PP): 20, 20, 10. Total: 50, 40, 20 = Average: 36.67
Away: PAK (OCT 2021): 10// IRL (AUG 2021): 20, 10, 10// SRL (PP) 10, 0, 0// AUS (PP) 0, 0, 0.
Total: 40, 20, 20. Average = 26.67
Overall: 90, 60, 40. Average = 63.33, Expected 60-70
So, if we stack up the teams as per expected points, it comes like:
1. Australia: 190-200 (That win against England actually has put them as front runners)
2. India: 170-180 (The host, might lack motivation)
3. England: 170-180 (That loss against IRL will cost them a position, and they let Aussies steal a series, otherwise would have finished as top)
4. New Zealand: 160-170 (The most predictable & steady side)
5. South Africa: 130-140 (Their fixtures will help them to earn easy points – against India & Australia, they are playing away, means they are getting better home schedules)
6. Bangladesh: 110-120 (A mix bag schedule, but their success hugely depends on those series against Afghans, Ireland and Zimbabwe)
7. Pakistan: 110-120 (That loss against ZIM will cost them a spot and their schedule isn’t favorable – against Australia, it won’t matter home or away, but away in Netherlands & Afghanistan are the traps for them)
8. West Indies: 110-120 (Most unpredictable side – might surprise few teams, then might surprise themselves as well)
9. Sri Lanka: 100-110 (My dark horse for the qualifier)
10. Afghanistan: 80-90 (They have the best away schedule, but they have to cash on Asian opponents – playing all four of them)
11. Ireland: 70-80 (10 bonus points against England & they have home advantage against Zimbabwe)
12. Zimbabwe: 60-70 (10 bonus points against Pakistan & they have home advantage against Netherlands)
13. Netherland: 40-50 (The outsider – I think, Scotland would have been a better opponent here)
It’s not a decisive ranking, rather an indicative one. By this table, it looks like 100+ points will be required for a direct entry, but my hunch is, these series are not normal bilaterals – better teams won’t release the gas paddle after 2-0, therefore last spot might be available even with 90-100 points.
From this list, what I see is that top 5 teams are through by some margin and there will be a tight fight between Bangladesh, Pakistan, West Indies & Sri Lanka to avoid the 9th spot. Afghans have an outside chance to sneak into top eight, but even if they miss out, through the qualifiers in Asia, they should make it easily with the 9th team. In that club of 6th to 9th team, my dark horse is Sri Lanka – if Arthur can restore the pride and discipline in their squad, they will make the first cut for sure, at whose cost I don’t know.
It’s still almost 3 years for the World Cup and the Super League will continue till March 2022, may be even later as they will have to schedule few deferred series for this on going pandemic issue. It’s probably premature to look into the World Cup, but on current state of affairs, predictable developments, changes by the participants, we can look into the possible results of the series planned for each team (eight series each) and predict a point table. It’s definitely not conclusive and lots of factors might change the predictable outcome, but the final projected table should give an idea. Here, I am looking into teams by home and away, with possible best, worst & probable series results to draw a final points table. Unlike Test Championships, here every Series has 3 games and they’ll use a tie-breaker to allocate points in tied game, therefore the equations are straight forward.
Here are the teams in alphabetic order (Points are given considering best case, expected, worst case scenario, in that order):
AFGHANISTAN:
Home: IRL (JAN 2021): 30, 20, 10// PAK (SEP 2021): 20, 10, 0// NED (DEC 2021): 30, 30, 20// AUS (MAR 2022): 10, 0, 0 Total: 90, 60, 30 = Average 60
Away: IND (MAR 2021): 0, 0, 0// SRL (JUL 2021): 10, 10, 0// BD (FEB 2022):20, 10, 0// ZIM (NOV 2021): 20, 10, 10. Total: 50, 30, 10 = Average 30.
Overall: 140, 90, 40. Average = 90, Expected: 80-90
AUSTRALIA:
Home: IND (NOV 2020): 30, 20, 10// NZL (JAN 2021): 30, 20, 20// SAF (JAN 2022): 30, 30, 20// ZIM (PP): 30, 30, 30 Total: 120, 100, 80 = Average: 100
Away: ENG (AUG 2020): 20// WIN (JUN 2021): 30, 30, 20// AFG (MAR 2022): 30, 30, 20// PAK (FEB 2022): 30, 30, 20 Total: 110, 110, 70. Average = 96.67
Overall: 230, 210, 160. Average = 200, Expected: 190-200
BANGLADESH:
Home: SRL (DEC 2020): 20, 20, 10// WIN (JAN 2021): 20, 20, 10// ENG (OCT 2021): 20, 10, 0// AFG (FEB 2022): 30, 20, 10// Total: 90, 70, 30 = Average: 63.33
Away: IRL (PP): 30, 20, 10// NZ (FEB 2021): 0, 0, 0// SAF (MAR 2022): 0, 0, 0// ZIM (JUN 2021): 30, 30, 20. Total: 70, 50, 20. Average = 46.67
Overall: 160, 120, 50. Average = 110, Expected 110-120
ENGLAND:
Home: IRL (JUN 2020): 20// AUS (AUG 2020): 10// SRL (JUN 2021): 30, 30, 20// PAK (JUL 2021): 30, 30, 20// Total: 90, 90, 70 = Average 80.33
Away: SAF (DEC 2020): 30, 20, 10// BD (OCT 2021): 30, 20, 10// IND (PP): 20, 20, 0// NED (MAY 2021): 30, 30, 30// Total: 110, 90, 50 = Average 80.33.
Overall: 200, 180, 120. Average = 166.67, Expected: 170-180
INDIA:
Home: AFG (MAR 2021): 30, 30, 30// ENG (PP): 30, 10, 10// SAF (OCT 2021): 30, 30, 20// WIN (JAN 2022): 30, 30, 20 Total: 120, 100, 80 = Average: 100
Away: AUS (NOV 2020): 20, 10, 0// NZL (MAR 2022): 20, 10, 10// SRL (PP): 30, 30, 20// ZIM (PP) 30, 30, 30. Total: 100, 80, 60. Average = 80
Overall: 220, 180, 140. Average = 180, Expected: 170-180
IRELAND:
Home: BD (PP): 20, 10, 0// NZL (PP): 10, 0, 0// SAF (JUN 2021): 10, 0, 0// ZIM (AUG 2021): 20, 20, 10// Total: 60, 30, 10 = Average: 33.33
Away: ENG (JUL 2021): 10// AFG (JAN 2021): 20, 10, 0// NED (JUN 2021): 20, 20, 10// WIN (JAN 2022): 10, 10, 0. Total: 60, 50, 20. Average = 43.33
Overall: 130, 80, 30. Average = 80, Expected 70-80
NETHERLANDS:
Home: ENG (MAY 2021): 0, 0, 0// IRL (JUN 2021): 20, 10, 10// PAK (PP): 10, 0, 0// SAF (JUN 2021): 10, 0, 0// Total: 40, 10, 10 = Average 20
Away: AFG (DEC 2021): 10, 0, 0// NZL (JAN 2022): 0, 0, 0// SAF (SEP 2021): 0, 0, 0// ZIM (PP): 20, 10, 10// Total: 30, 10, 10 = Average 16.33
Overall: 70, 20, 20. Average = 36.67, Expected: 40-50
NEWZELAND:
Home: BD (FEB 2021): 30, 30, 30// WIN (PP): 30, 20, 20// NED (JAN 2022): 30, 30, 30// IND (MAR 2022): 20, 20, 10 Total: 110, 100, 90 = Average: 100
Away: AUS (JAN 2021): 10, 10, 0// IRL (PP): 30, 30, 10// PAK (OCT 2021): 20, 20, 10// WIN (PP) 30, 20, 10. Total: 90, 80, 30. Average = 66.67
Overall: 200, 180, 120. Average = 166.67, Expected: 160-170
PAKISTAN:
Home: ZIM (OCT 2020): 20// NZL (OCT 2021): 20, 10, 10// WIN (DEC 2021): 20, 20, 10// AUS (FEB 2022): 10, 0, 0// Total: 70, 50, 40 = Average: 53.33
Away: SAF (APR 2021): 10, 10, 0// ENG (JUL 2021): 10, 0, 0// AFG (SEP 2021): 30, 20, 10// NED (PP): 30, 30, 20. Total: 80, 60, 30. Average = 56.67
Overall: 150, 110, 70. Average = 110, Expected 110-120
SOUTH AFRICA:
Home: ENG (DEC 2020): 20, 10, 0// PAK (APR 2021): 30, 20, 20// NED (SEP 2021): 30, 30, 30// BD (MAR 2022): 30, 30, 30. Total: 110, 90, 80 = Average: 93.33
Away: IRL (JUN 2021): 30, 30, 20// IND (OCT 2021): 10, 0, 0// SRL (PP): 20, 10, 10// AUS (JAN 2022): 10, 0, 0. Total: 70, 40, 30. Average = 46.67
Overall: 180, 130, 110. Average = 140, Expected 130-140
SRILANKA:
Home: AFG (JUL 2021): 30, 20, 20// IND (PP): 10, 0, 0// SAF (PP): 20, 10, 10// ZIM (PP): 30, 30, 20. Total: 90, 60, 50 = Average 66.67
Away: BD (DEC 2020): 20, 10, 10// NZL (FEB 2021): 10, 0, 0// ENG (JUN 2021): 10, 0, 0// WIN (FEB 2021): 20, 10, 10. Total: 60, 20, 20 = Average 33.33
Overall: 150, 80, 70. Average = 100, Expected: 100-110
WEST INDIES:
Home: AUS (JUN 2021): 10, 0, 0// SRL (FEB 2021): 20, 20, 10// IRL (JAN 2022): 30, 20, 20// NZL (PP): 10, 10, 0// Total: 70, 50, 30 = Average: 50
Away: BD (JAN 2021): 20, 10, 10// IRL (PP): 30, 30, 10// NED (PP): 30, 20, 20// IND (JAN 2022): 10, 0, 0// Total: 90, 60, 40. Average = 63.33
Overall: 170, 110, 70. Average = 113.33, Expected: 110-120
ZIMBABWE:
Home: BD (JUN 2021): 10, 0, 0// AFG (NOV 2021): 20, 20, 10// IND (PP): 0, 0, 0// NED (PP): 20, 20, 10. Total: 50, 40, 20 = Average: 36.67
Away: PAK (OCT 2021): 10// IRL (AUG 2021): 20, 10, 10// SRL (PP) 10, 0, 0// AUS (PP) 0, 0, 0.
Total: 40, 20, 20. Average = 26.67
Overall: 90, 60, 40. Average = 63.33, Expected 60-70
So, if we stack up the teams as per expected points, it comes like:
1. Australia: 190-200 (That win against England actually has put them as front runners)
2. India: 170-180 (The host, might lack motivation)
3. England: 170-180 (That loss against IRL will cost them a position, and they let Aussies steal a series, otherwise would have finished as top)
4. New Zealand: 160-170 (The most predictable & steady side)
5. South Africa: 130-140 (Their fixtures will help them to earn easy points – against India & Australia, they are playing away, means they are getting better home schedules)
6. Bangladesh: 110-120 (A mix bag schedule, but their success hugely depends on those series against Afghans, Ireland and Zimbabwe)
7. Pakistan: 110-120 (That loss against ZIM will cost them a spot and their schedule isn’t favorable – against Australia, it won’t matter home or away, but away in Netherlands & Afghanistan are the traps for them)
8. West Indies: 110-120 (Most unpredictable side – might surprise few teams, then might surprise themselves as well)
9. Sri Lanka: 100-110 (My dark horse for the qualifier)
10. Afghanistan: 80-90 (They have the best away schedule, but they have to cash on Asian opponents – playing all four of them)
11. Ireland: 70-80 (10 bonus points against England & they have home advantage against Zimbabwe)
12. Zimbabwe: 60-70 (10 bonus points against Pakistan & they have home advantage against Netherlands)
13. Netherland: 40-50 (The outsider – I think, Scotland would have been a better opponent here)
It’s not a decisive ranking, rather an indicative one. By this table, it looks like 100+ points will be required for a direct entry, but my hunch is, these series are not normal bilaterals – better teams won’t release the gas paddle after 2-0, therefore last spot might be available even with 90-100 points.
From this list, what I see is that top 5 teams are through by some margin and there will be a tight fight between Bangladesh, Pakistan, West Indies & Sri Lanka to avoid the 9th spot. Afghans have an outside chance to sneak into top eight, but even if they miss out, through the qualifiers in Asia, they should make it easily with the 9th team. In that club of 6th to 9th team, my dark horse is Sri Lanka – if Arthur can restore the pride and discipline in their squad, they will make the first cut for sure, at whose cost I don’t know.
