Should other countries follow England's example of 'Freedom Day' [End of COVID-19 restrictions]

[MenInG]

So in England from today there is a complete relaxation of COVID-19 precaution rules.

But is this a model other nations can follow? if not why not?

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Nearly all remaining Covid restrictions have been lifted in England, including an end to social distancing rules

There are no limits on how many people can meet; the 1m-plus distancing rule is over; nightclubs are open and capacity limits lifted

Prime Minister Boris Johnson, the chancellor and the health secretary are self-isolating, and there are warnings cases will surge

Lifting all coronavirus restrictions is "reckless", Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer says

Face coverings are no longer required by law, but they are expected in crowded and enclosed spaces

Some transport operators and supermarkets are asking customers to keep wearing masks

In Scotland, rules are also changing, with looser limits on indoor gatherings, but masks will remain compulsory in shops and on public transport

There have been a further 39,950 lab-confirmed Covid-19 cases in the UK and 19 deaths within 28 days of a positive test

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One expert likens what is being done to taking the "control rods out of a nuclear reactor".

"This is going to make things worse than they are now and we don't know when it will peak," says Loughborough University data analyst Dr Duncan Robertson.

And that in many ways goes to the heart of the issue.

This is our first "natural wave" of Covid - all the others have been brought to an end through lockdown and restrictions. The plan is for this one to exhaust itself. So predicting what will happen is much more difficult.

The move has been given the personal backing of chief medical officer Prof Chris Whitty and a number of the scientists advising him. Infection rates were always going to rise at this stage of the roadmap - more mixing means it is easier for the virus to spread.

But with significant levels of immunity from vaccination and natural infection the hope is spread of the virus will be brought under control in the coming weeks.

Some have suggested the government should wait longer before taking this step. But infections are already rising so that will not halt the rise.

And, according to Prof Whitty, were we to wait any longer, there is a risk the peak of infections this summer wave could be pushed to the autumn, which could make things worse with flu and other viruses circulating.

But that does not mean government scientists do not have concerns. Behind the scenes, they have been questioning the policy on face masks, in particular, after ministers made big play of the fact mask-wearing would no longer be legally required. Not because it will dramatically alter the course of rising infections, but because of the message it sent out - that controlling infection no longer mattered.

This has led to a definite change of approach with ministers now stressing the need to keep wearing masks in crowded indoor places.

How are the rules on masks changing on 19 July?
The reason is clear from the results of the latest modelling to be released. It looked at the impact of people returning almost immediately to normal behaviour, and compared it with a gradual resumption over months.

The results estimated the gradual approach could halve the summer peak and avoid what is called an overshoot - whereby the surge in cases means greater numbers become infected than need be, before this summer wave peaks. The modelling shows this is much more important in reducing the peak than simply delaying the lifting of restrictions.

It is why Prof Whitty has also referred to the importance of the public "going slowly" in the way they embrace new freedoms.

Prof Matt Keeling, a modeller at the University of Warwick, has gone even further. "If there is one message - the public is going to control the trajectory we are on," he said.

But this is just one of many unknowns, which explains the huge range around the central estimate that hospital admissions will peak this summer at 1,000 to 2,000 a day. (The winter wave just gone hit 4,000 in comparison.)

And if this does happen, it will come at a significant cost. While the vaccination programme has reduced the number of Covid deaths 10-fold, there could still be 100 to 200 deaths a day. About half of those are expected to be in unvaccinated people. It will also cause major disruption to the NHS. To put those summer figures into context, hospitals would expect to see about 1,000 admissions a day in the depths of winter, for all types of respiratory infections.

Will 19 July unlocking gamble pay off or backfire?

"We would get through it as we have before," says Dr Alison Pittard, of the Faculty of Intensive Care Medicine. "But it would be at the expense of elective care and other treatments."

Another consequence will be more people struggling with long Covid either because it takes them time to recover after being hospitalised or from persistent symptoms, such as fatigue and brain fog, which for a small minority appear to happen after milder illness.

Immunity will be way out
But, in the end, unless restrictions are re-introduced, this wave is only likely to come to an end when the wall of immunity - from vaccination and natural infection - is high enough. And when that happens, England could find itself in the very strong position, Sir Patrick Vallance, the government's chief scientific adviser, hinted last week. He said we were reaching the level of immunity where "big waves" may be in the past.

This does not mean herd immunity - given how infectious the Delta variant is and the changing nature of the virus, many experts now question whether this will be possible. Covid, they believe, is going to be around forever.

Instead, scientists expect some sort of equilibrium will be reached, whereby the R number, the average number of people an infected person passes the virus on to, will fluctuate around one.

This will see more manageable waves ebb and flow. And with vaccines offering good protection against serious illness, society will be more willing to tolerate the burden.

After all, in the most recent bad winter - 2017-18 - there were 300 to 400 flu deaths a day at the peak, more than is being predicted for this summer's Covid peak.

Will we get there in the coming months? It is, one of the key government modellers told me, really too close to call.

BBC

 

[KingKhanWC]

There shouldnt have been lock downs longer than a few weeks at the most.

It was nice to see people out with no masks today. A virus which only kills 1-2% of those infected is not enough to destroy the economy, make people jobless, stop them from hugging their loved ones, stop them from even being able to smile at people!

UK saw massive protests and online protests against these lockdowns, eventually the government had to back down. Sadly in other countries the people dont have the same voice.

 

[SangasCoverDrive]

The cases are high Bc of the testing rate. A lot of people are asymptomatic and they have to take COVID test as part of their work or other reasons. Most of the developing countries don’t even have self testing kit and if they had that, the numbers there would have been much higher.

 

[pakistani pride]

There shouldnt have been lock downs longer than a few weeks at the most.

It was nice to see people out with no masks today. A virus which only kills 1-2% of those infected is not enough to destroy the economy, make people jobless, stop them from hugging their loved ones, stop them from even being able to smile at people!

UK saw massive protests and online protests against these lockdowns, eventually the government had to back down. Sadly in other countries the people dont have the same voice.

Its way lower then 1 - 2 %. The panic is created by the media and massive testing.

I hope more countries follow UK .

 

[KingKhanWC]

Its way lower then 1 - 2 %. The panic is created by the media and massive testing.

I hope more countries follow UK .

It as in the UK if you have tested positive & die within 30 days inc car crash, hit by lightining, it goes down as a Covid death.

Some US states were the first, hopefully more will follow.

Intersting after 18 months the UK government hasnt spent any decent amount of time advising people how to boost their immune system.

 

[KingKhanWC]

Indian news report on this.

She says do Colonisers understand fresh freedom

It seems a few countries inc India are upset about this.

 

[sweep_shot]

Not every country has same situation. So, answer is no.

 

[MenInG]

So how did it go for people in England?

 

[PakLFC]

"Freedom day" was being told that people gathering anywhere in large numbers must be vaccinated!. Large numbers of people gather everywhere we go so effectively we are told that forceful vaccinations will soon be introduced. Imagine a scenario where people are not suffering from any disease yet forced in to so called treatment. We no longer own our bodies, we will be injected drugs we know nothing about even if we are perfectly healthy. A big "no" is the answer.

 

[SpiritOf1903]

Is not a good idea here!

 

[MenInG]

The government is "very concerned" about the numbers of people being pinged by the NHS app, the business secretary has told Sky News.

Speaking to Kay Burley, Kwasi Kwarteng said ministers were "monitoring" the situation and would be setting out a list of exempt critical workers "very soon", with the expectation that it will be published on Thursday.

"The list of exemptions will be quite narrow because, obviously, you have to draw the line somewhere," he said.

Downing Street said earlier this week that it would not be "producing a list covering individual sectors", with employers instead having to apply to government departments to allow workers to effectively circumvent the COVID-19 rules around isolation.

His comments come as retailers warn they are under "increasing pressure" to keep shelves fully stocked amid staff shortages caused by the "pingdemic".

Industry bosses have warned that supply chains are "starting to fail" due to the number of workers, including lorry drivers and meat-processing staff, getting pinged by the NHS COVID-19 app.

Some shoppers have posted pictures on social media of empty supermarket shelves in parts of the country.

The British Retail Consortium (BRC) has now urged the government to change self-isolation guidance to help address the issue.

Andrew Opie, director of food & sustainability at the BRC, said in-store staff and suppliers should be allowed to work even if they get an alert to isolate for 10 days.

The National Police Chiefs' Council has also said that police response times are "under strain" as some forces deal with staffing shortages.

The prime minister's spokesman said on Tuesday that the exemption would be determined on a case by case basis, with employers having to apply to the relevant government department to see if their workers can continue to come into work after they are identified as close contacts of someone who has tested positive for COVID.

The spokesman said it could include certain workers in the food industry, utilities, border staff and the NHS, but there is no blanket exemption for sectors.

There have been growing calls in recent weeks for changes to the rules around isolation, amid warnings that the number of people being told to quarantine is having a crippling effect on businesses.

Being pinged by the app means you should isolate for 10 days - but unlike being contacted by Test and Trace, it is guidance rather than legally mandated.

Latest figures show over 500,000 people were pinged by the app in the week up to 7 July, leading to concerns that millions could be forced out of work as coronavirus cases rise.

With case numbers expected to rise over the summer, there are fears that people will delete the app en masse to avoid being told to isolate.

There have been calls for the sensitivity of the app to be adjusted, but the government has ruled this out.

Boris Johnson, who is himself isolating after being identified as a close contact of the COVID-positive Health Secretary Sajid Javid, has said isolation is "one of the only shots we have got left in our locker to stop the chain reaction of the spread" of COVID.

"I'm afraid that at this stage it's simply a consequence of living with COVID and opening up when cases are high in the way that we are," he said.

From 16 August, under-18s and people who are fully vaccinated will no longer be told to isolate if they come into close contact with someone who has tested positive.

Instead, they will be encouraged to take a test. Anyone who tests positive will still be legally required to isolate, regardless of their vaccine status.

SKY

 

[MenInG]

Case rates among those in their 20s are the highest recorded since mass testing began

Coronavirus cases have continued to be highest among those aged 20 to 29 for some weeks, but this age group is now seeing the highest case rates since mass testing began.

There's now a seven-day rate of 1,154.7 per 100,000 people - or 1 in 100 - according to Public Health England.

 

[King_Kohli]

Coronavirus infections continue to fall in UK

The number of people testing positive for Covid-19 has continued to fall in the UK, the latest daily figures show.

The UK recorded 29,173 new cases on Sunday - down from 48,161 logged a week earlier on 18 July.

The number of new infections by date reported has fallen for five days in a row for the first time since February.

It is also the first time since the start of the pandemic that a sustained drop in cases has not coincided with a national lockdown.

"The data at present is looking good for at least the summer," said Prof Paul Hunter from the University of East Anglia.

"Today's figures do not of course include any impact of last Monday's end of restrictions. It will not be until about next Friday before the data includes the impact of this change."

What could be causing the fall in cases?
Public Health England tweeted the daily figures for Sunday, saying there had been a delay in updating the government's coronavirus dashboard.

It said 46,563,452 people had now had a first dose of a Covid vaccine, while 37,160,659 had received a second dose.

The dashboard later updated to show there have been a further 28 deaths within 28 days of a positive test.

The seven-day average of cases, which smooths out daily fluctuations, is showing a 15.4% decline compared with the week before.



In Scotland, case numbers started falling earlier than in England - with some evidence the decline may have been triggered by the football team's exit from the Euro 2020 tournament, although the downward trend has continued since then.

"There has been a lot of conversation about a football-related bounce in infections and whether we were seeing a wave-within-a-wave," said Mark Woolhouse, professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh.

"In Scotland though it's now starting to look like it's a longer-term trend. We haven't seen any sign of cases picking up [since the football finished]".

The figures show the number of people taking Covid tests has fallen over the past fortnight, which scientists say could explain some of the drop in reported case numbers but is very unlikely to be the only factor.

Better weather over the past fortnight across much of the country may also have helped as more socialising took place outside.


The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics suggest 92% of adults in the UK now have antibodies to the virus in their blood, either through a previous infection or at least one vaccination dose.

Real world data shows one dose of the Pfizer and AstraZeneca vaccines is around 35% effective at preventing a Covid infection with the dominant Delta variant.

After two doses that rises to 88% for the Pfizer jab and 67% for the AstraZeneca jab. Both jabs are even more effective against hospitalisation and death.

The vaccines can never offer 100% protection but as more of the population is jabbed so there is less opportunity for the virus to infect and spread.

What impact could the 19 July unlocking have?
Covid rules in England were relaxed on 19 July, removing social distancing restrictions in bars and restaurants and allowing nightclubs to reopen.

Any rise in infections linked to that unlocking is unlikely to show up in the daily case numbers for some days to come.

In other countries, such as the Netherlands and Spain, the reopening of nightclubs has been followed by a sharp rise in infections, and in some areas the policy was quickly reversed.

Some scientists say the impact of unlocking in England is extremely hard to predict but could be offset by a reduction in younger children mixing as schools close for the summer holidays.


"If I was a betting man, I would now say that the impact of 19 July will not be sufficient to start case numbers increasing again, but I cannot be certain," said Paul Hunter, professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia.

Others are more cautious. Prof Woolhouse from Edinburgh University said there "may well" be another rise in cases this summer.

"There are at least eight million adults who have had no vaccination at all, plus most children under 18. That is still a lot of material for the virus to work with... and if the change in behaviour is dramatic enough [after 19 July], then we could see cases increase again."

What about the impact on hospitals?
Since the start of the pandemic a rise in infections has always led, some weeks later, to a corresponding increase in hospitalisations and deaths.

The vaccine rollout has significantly weakened that relationship but has not broken it completely.

As of 22 July there were 5,001 Covid patients in hospital across the UK, up from a low of 871 on 27 May but still well below the 39,254 in hospital at the height of the winter wave in January.

The time lag between infections and hospital admissions means that number is likely to continue to rise over at least the next week, even if infections continue to fall.

Trying to predict what will happen in the longer term is a much more difficult task for data scientists and epidemiologists.

Most agree that there is unlikely to be a defined end-point to this pandemic. Instead the disease may become endemic - meaning it continues to circulate at a lower level in pockets of the population with smaller spikes driven by changes to behaviour and seasonal effects.

Earlier this month, the NHS was given the green light to start planning a Covid vaccine booster programme to try to minimise another wave of infections this winter.

Scientists serving on the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation recommended 30 million of the most vulnerable should receive a third dose. They will include all adults aged 50 and over and anyone over 16 who qualifies for a flu jab.

"This is a very difficult phase of epidemic to predict and very careful surveillance and monitoring will remain important for weeks and months to come," said Prof Woolhouse.

"There is nothing yet that undermines the government's decision to unlock on 19 July but [we will] have to continue to watch."

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57962995