I agree here. Pakistanis are complaining about curfews and basic human rights such as internet but failed to grasp how it has changed the whole scenario regarding kashmir.
Once the infrastructure is placed and economy develops, agitation will die down.
Have to admit. Modi is clever. He chose the perfect time to enforce it. As Pakistani economy is itself in shambles, there's no way it can afford to take other steps than asking others for help.
You like or dislike Modi, but one has to admit, he has the courage.
To make this happen, the following needed to be in place
1) No state government. As per the law, it can only be repealed by the President on the recommendation of constituent assembly. There is no constituent assembly anymore. So, state assembly was supposed to be it's replacement. There is no state assembly for the past year or so.
2. President. I doubt if Pranab Mukherjee would have agreed to this. BJP needed a puppet president.
3. President's rule in Kashmir- It appears the law that allows Presidents rule, an emergency law also states that in the absence of a state government, the Parliament can take it's place. This is the major factor as state government wouldn't have allowed this.
4. Votes in Upper house. BJP made noise about 370 and 35a in 2014 as well but they did not have any votes. It wouldn't have passed. They don't have majority even now but the regional parties unaffiliated with BJP voted along with BjP passing the bill.
5. Modi's incredible victory- If BJP formed a coalition government instead of bagging an absolute majority, this would have been impossible. Nitish always insisted that he is not for repealing 370. The regional parties from AP or UP wouldn't have gone along with BJP. All these regional parties didnt want to go against popular sentiment after Modi's incredible victory-.
5. Nationalist campaign before elections- Economy was going south and even 10 months before elections, exit polls suggested around 160 to 180 seats for BJP. The only reason BJP won a resounding victory was because of the nationalist campaign that was distinct compared to the campaign in 2014 that was run on economy.
6. Issues within UNSC countries : US has internal issues with immigration, they have trade wars with China, they are trying to get out of Afg. US policy under Trump was to look for US interests at the cost of even eroding their leadership in world affairs. Backing out of climate deal, trade deals were unprecedented. US is trying to build coalitions with several countries to police the world instead of going alone. They have identified India as their partner in Asia to keep China in check. UK is dealing with Brexit issues. China is dealing with trade war and is increasingly looking at India to fill part of the trade deficit. OBOR started spectacularly but countries are concerned about debt traps and it has lost steam to a certain extent. France and Russia have been vocal in their friendship with India for a while. There was not going to be any resistance from these countries for 370 repeal.
7. Pakistan's financial weakness and Gilgit order in 2018. Pakistan has been in financial strife for a few years and can't bear the cost of war for a region they claim disputed but never claimed ownership in their constitution. Pak PMs order in 2018 to claim Gilgit as a province was a surprise considering Pak's claim of that area to be in disputed status until then. Pak's objection to 370 repeal seems hypocritical with that order.
8. CPEC. Financial burden on Pak and at this critical juncture is a headache for Pak. Any bond they sell or loan they seek, the onus is on Pak to show that it's not towards interest payments of CPEC. This antoganized India to no end as Pak was allowing a 3rd country to build and control the disputed region. This also is the reason why China isn't going to object much to 370 repeal. This is the reason why Pak wanted to elevate Gilgit's status to a province to make China happy.
9.False flags and dry runs. Is Pulwama a false flag? Yes and no. Did India kill it's own soldiers to test Pak's capability? Or did Modi take advantage of the situation? Either way, a situation was created that an extraordinary response was needed. Did Modi attack Pakistan to see how Pak would react as a dry run to guage the response for a future 370 repeal? If Pak doesn't wage a war for an attack in their own country, will they do because of Kashmir? While Pakistanis were mature and celebrated the pilot's capture, one thing was certain. This was not the old India that was a coward. India lost credibility with claims of 300 terrorist deaths and the pilot capture but BJP and Modi got what they wanted. They found Pakistan's threshold and there is no denying that it won Modi the election. It also helped India in stregnthening their case against Pak regarding FATF.
10.Modi. It's obvious that any other leader doesn't have the guts to do this. The troika of Modi, Shah, Doval have been planning this for years and the strike was swift and shocking. Intelligence agencies across the world had no idea. There is no chance better than this. This was a perfect storm of epic proportions. This will not only solidify Modi's base but has totally demoralized the opposition.
So what's next? The 'butcher' of Gujarat as his enemies call him has a second chance. History will judge Modi on how he will deal Kashmir after his Godra reputation. It will be a case of redemption if he can be successful in integrating Kashmir. J&K is no more a disputed land. India has time and means to make this happen. There is no international pressure.The only way in for Pakistan is if there is stupidity on the Indian side. Mass killings, rapes will lead this to a disaster for India. RSS has taken a strong hold of the country and they are not stupid. With opposition at it's weakest, RSS has a chance to be in power for a decade. Uniform civil code is next. India will not touch Azad Kashmir. However, in a decade or two I expect India to make a move on Gilgit to gain acceas to Afg and Central Asia. It again depends on another perfect storm.
