The Brexit farce - All the predictions coming true

[Yossarian]

I posted the following over 15 months ago in another thread.

By 2020 it will be quite clear that all the reasons that Brexiteers voted for 'out' (immigration, paying into the EU, European Court, not needing to follow EU rules in many areas etc) are not going to work out as they were told.

* EU immigration numbers will not be cut - not if the NHS, Nursing homes and home care providers are going to keep on functioning, not if the restaurants and holiday venues are going to keep on satisfying their customers, not if the East Anglian farmers are going to have their summer crops picked and sent to supermarkets.

* There will need to be a 'Transition period' after 2019, lasting perhaps years, during which we will have to keep on paying into the EU and be subject to the European Court.

* If Britain wishes to keep on selling goods and services into the EU, then these goods and services will have to comply with EU rules.

Basically, the only thing that will change is the UK government not sitting at the decision making table of the EU. That and the fact that prices will go up (due to £ going down, plus reduced trade due to tariffs and additional red tape at ports trading with the EU).

Britain might be in the middle of a great big recession by then - all due to Brexiteers, with the Tories getting the blame for the whole mess.

A week is a long time in politics. By 2020 the Tories may have nowhere to hide.

Corbyn just has to sit tight, survive the back stabbing from the Blairites, and wait for the realities of the ramifications of Brexit to become clearer to the Brexiteers, and then see the Tories disintegrate as a result and hand the election on a plate to the Corbynistas.

And also this over a year ago in a different thread:

Bit by bit, slowly but surely, the folly of what they have committed to doing is beginning to hit home to Brexiteers. And they have started to turn on each other in the most vicious manner imaginable.

Brexit is turning out to be better than a Hollywood movie with lots of plots and sub-plots, intrigue, many twists and turns, plenty of back-stabbing, and who knows, maybe even a few fist fights in the House of Commons yet to come!

 

[Cpt. Rishwat]

I still think now the ramifications of Brexit are starting to be understood by the UKIP led Trumpers, we may see growing calls for another referendum so the genie can be put back in the box. Although of course, that will have meant we have wasted time and money negotiating an exit that might never materialise.

 

[Yossarian]

I still think now the ramifications of Brexit are starting to be understood by the UKIP led Trumpers, we may see growing calls for another referendum so the genie can be put back in the box. Although of course, that will have meant we have wasted time and money negotiating an exit that might never materialise.

Due to May caving in to Rees-Mogg's brigade yesterday with the Amendment that says that Britain will collect tariffs on behalf of the EU, and then pass these onto the EU (a key part of May's Chequers plan) only if the EU countries are also willing to do the same on behalf of the UK, Theresa May's Chequers plan is already effectively dead - Because the chances of the EU agreeing to that is zilch. They are not going to make changes to 27 countries border controls (for non-EU goods coming in) just for Britain.

And she has no other plan.

Plus now, finally, she's also beginning to realise that "crashing out" with "no deal" will be a complete disaster for Britain.

She is stuck!

I'm betting that she's hoping the Tory's will challenge her leadership and remove her, or she goes for an election and hope to lose to Corbyn - so that someone else has to deal with all the mess!

 

[IMMY69]

It’s a complete and utter shambles...

 

[IMMY69]

I’m so blue in the face arguing with people on this that i’ve literally given up..

 

[Yossarian]

I’m so blue in the face arguing with people on this that i’ve literally given up..

I've already come across so many Brexiteers who have already lost their jobs as a direct result of Brexit.

Both private and public organisations (such as the European Medicines Agency and European Banking Authority) are already in the process of leaving the UK completely or moving some of their operations out of the UK.

Whilst most of the top managers and staff will most likely be offered incentives to also move to the new locations in the EU, the same will not be the case with more junior clerical staff, junior technicians, production workers ... the list is endless. And this is just the beginning.

If there is a 'no deal' outcome and the UK crashes out, then this trickle will become a flood of jobs moving out of the UK.

 

[Yossarian]

It’s a complete and utter shambles...

just to add:

The ironic aspect is that the ones most likely to be affected, by losing their jobs, are those who voted for Brexit.


And just to hit the point home, most of them don't realise that when, say, a production facility moves (for example) a thousand jobs out of the UK and into Europe, it also affects other local businesses that relied on that production facility, such as local suppliers, shops, restaurants, effects on local house prices etc.... meaning that many thousands more also have their livelihoods affected.

Paradoxically, the ones that voted against Brexit are also those most likely to be least affected by Brexit.

Brexiteers are akin to turkeys that voted for Xmas.

 

[imrankhannsu]

Thats why you shouldnt leave such big decisions to the mass public.

 

[GoUgandaCranes]

I want Sweden to quit EU as well.

 

[Yossarian]

I want Sweden to quit EU as well.

Why?
One of the excuses of the Brexiteer's is that Britain will make new super duper trade agreements with the Commonwealth countries that will make Britain Great again. Basically, they hark back to the days of the Empire. What would be your reason for wanting Sweden to quit the EU?

 

[GoUgandaCranes]

Why?
One of the excuses of the Brexiteer's is that Britain will make new super duper trade agreements with the Commonwealth countries that will make Britain Great again. Basically, they hark back to the days of the Empire. What would be your reason for wanting Sweden to quit the EU?

Should have done what Norway did and never become part of the EU.

The heterogeneous observation of rules is what really makes me feel that we should leave it. We follow every single law down to the most minute detail while for other countries laws are more of a guideline and hence it becomes difficult to always have a good standard.

That said, this is my personal opinion based on the things that I've dealt with.

 

[IMMY69]

just to add:

The ironic aspect is that the ones most likely to be affected, by losing their jobs, are those who voted for Brexit.


And just to hit the point home, most of them don't realise that when, say, a production facility moves (for example) a thousand jobs out of the UK and into Europe, it also affects other local businesses that relied on that production facility, such as local suppliers, shops, restaurants, effects on local house prices etc.... meaning that many thousands more also have their livelihoods affected.

Paradoxically, the ones that voted against Brexit are also those most likely to be least affected by Brexit.

Brexiteers are akin to turkeys that voted for Xmas.

This is funny. We employ Eastern Europeans and each and every single one of them were angry the day after the Bexit vote. A couple of the ladies were actually crying, saying that this country does not want them despite their hard work and contribution to the economy.

Then we had a couple of extremely vocal Exiters. The only argument they could put up was immigration
and controlling boarders and being able to make our own rules. Of course, 99pct of the EU law will be retained in any case.

Fast forward two years and our eastern european friends now have a residency card for the UK and still retain their Eastern European passports... best of both.

On a serious note, many highly qualified workers are now leaving the country and certainly there has been less influx since Brexit. This means higher wages for those qualified to do the work which means higher cost to the ordinary bloke on the street. Higher wages, highers export tariffs.

The leavers wanted to bring in qualified doctors and nurses from the common wealth to breach the gap.
So far this has not been the case and our NHS is crumbling under the pressure. Meanwhile, bringing in a qualified doctor or nurse from India is going to cost three times that of someone from East Europe.

 

[Cpt. Rishwat]

This is funny. We employ Eastern Europeans and each and every single one of them were angry the day after the Bexit vote. A couple of the ladies were actually crying, saying that this country does not want them despite their hard work and contribution to the economy.

Then we had a couple of extremely vocal Exiters. The only argument they could put up was immigration
and controlling boarders and being able to make our own rules. Of course, 99pct of the EU law will be retained in any case.

Fast forward two years and our eastern european friends now have a residency card for the UK and still retain their Eastern European passports... best of both.

On a serious note, many highly qualified workers are now leaving the country and certainly there has been less influx since Brexit. This means higher wages for those qualified to do the work which means higher cost to the ordinary bloke on the street. Higher wages, highers export tariffs.

The leavers wanted to bring in qualified doctors and nurses from the common wealth to breach the gap.
So far this has not been the case and our NHS is crumbling under the pressure. Meanwhile, bringing in a qualified doctor or nurse from India is going to cost three times that of someone from East Europe.

Not sure that is true of the majority of oiks to be honest. The more savvy of the Brexiters might have thought that far ahead, the average person who voted on the back of seeing UKIP posters of hordes of immigrants at the gates, would not be wanting people coming from the Commonwealth either. If anything they would want them even less if it meant Indian doctors and nurses. For the more simple voters it would be a case of keep foreigners out and give those jobs to the British.

 

[Cpt. Rishwat]

See the poster below which appealed to the common masses and you might struggle to see EU workers being represented.

 

[IMMY69]

Not sure that is true of the majority of oiks to be honest. The more savvy of the Brexiters might have thought that far ahead, the average person who voted on the back of seeing UKIP posters of hordes of immigrants at the gates, would not be wanting people coming from the Commonwealth either. If anything they would want them even less if it meant Indian doctors and nurses. For the more simple voters it would be a case of keep foreigners out and give those jobs to the British.

Yes of course but my point was that the this was the line the brexit campaigners were using.

 

[IMMY69]

See the poster below which appealed to the common masses and you might struggle to see EU workers being represented.


View attachment 82980

I remember hearing that the refugees entering Germany will eventually come to the UK.
Funny as these people would never actually get German passports in the first place.

That photo sickens me..

 

[Robert]

That photo sickens me..

It’s based on an actual Nazi Party poster. It swung my vote from Leave to Remain. I suddenly realised I was on the side of the bad guys.

 

[Markhor]

Boris Johnson is a shameless narcissist - I doubt he even really has any objections to May's Brexit plan. The man was wavering between Remain and Leave before the referendum before deciding being a Leaver was best for his career. He also is on the record having SUPPORTED UK Single Market membership yet is now demanding a Hard Brexit.

Here's a list of quotes exposing this man's hypocrisy http://uk.businessinsider.com/boris-johnson-brexit-speech-changed-his-mind-remain-2018-2

This is one long leadership campaign and Boris know pandering to the Europhobes is the best way to endear himself amongst the members.

 

[Donal Cozzie]

So Simon Coveney is meeting with Barnier tomorrow where both will reiterate there will be no Withdrawal Agreement without an Irish backstop, meanwhile May visits the border for the first time, 2 years after Brexit of course, to reiterate how NI will not be in a separate customs union from the UK, having the gall to claim the EU are breaching the GFA when its quite blatantly the other way round.

Have to admit I never ever though Brexit would descend to this level of a shambles, and thats really saying something. May is actively speaking out against what she agreed to in December and what became official UK Government policy in the White Paper

 

[Yossarian]

So Simon Coveney is meeting with Barnier tomorrow where both will reiterate there will be no Withdrawal Agreement without an Irish backstop, meanwhile May visits the border for the first time, 2 years after Brexit of course, to reiterate how NI will not be in a separate customs union from the UK, having the gall to claim the EU are breaching the GFA when its quite blatantly the other way round.

Have to admit I never ever though Brexit would descend to this level of a shambles, and thats really saying something. May is actively speaking out against what she agreed to in December and what became official UK Government policy in the White Paper

May seems to have imbeciles as advisors when it comes to sitting down and creating Brexit strategies.

For example, she and her fellow Brexiteers don't appear to realise that if there is no deal, and the Irish sea does not become the new 'border' (which Rees-Mogg has forced her to include in the Trade Bill), and the UK ends up trading with the EU under WTO rules, then under the WTO rules, there has to be border controls and border checks between Ireland and NI, regardless of what she told the N.Irish yesterday.

She's also now agreed to Rees-Mogg's demand (again in the Trade Bill) that Britain will only collect tariffs on behalf of the EU (her new plan) if the 27 EU states also do the same on behalf of the UK. Can you see each and every one of the 27 EU states changing their external customs controls, customs procedures, I.T. systems etc. in order to satisfy the UK? And that's assuming that, legally speaking, the EU could even allow a 3rd country (ie the UK) to collect tariffs on it's behalf.

Basically,she's ruled out a Customs Union, ruled out remaining in the Single Market, she now realises 'no deal' will be a disaster, her new Chequers plan (especially after changes agreed with Rees-Mogg), apart from being unworkable, is incompatible with the EU's core rules, and last but not least, time is running out.

 

[BouncerGuy]

Brexit has completely failed for UK, say clear majority of Britons – poll

A clear majority of the British public now believes Brexit has been bad for the UK economy, has driven up prices in shops, and has hampered government attempts to control immigration, according to a poll by Opinium to mark the third anniversary of the UK leaving the EU single market and customs union.

The survey of more than 2,000 UK voters also finds strikingly low numbers of people who believe that Brexit has benefited them or the country.

Just one in 10 believe leaving the EU has helped their personal financial situation, against 35% who say it has been bad for their finances, while just 9% say it has been good for the NHS, against 47% who say it has had a negative effect.

Ominously for prime minister Rishi Sunak, who backed Brexit and claimed it would be economically beneficial, only 7% of people think it has helped keep down prices in UK shops, against 63% who think Brexit has been a factor in fuelling inflation and the cost of living crisis.

The poll suggests that seven and a half years on from the referendum the British public now regards Brexit as a failure. Just 22% of voters believe it has been good for the UK in general.

The Vote Leave campaign led by Boris Johnson and Michael Gove had promised that Brexit would boost the economy and trade, as well as bring back £350m a week into the NHS and allow the government to take back control of the UK’s borders.

James Crouch, head of policy and public affairs at Opinium, said the perception of Brexit being handled badly and having had negative effects on various aspect of UK life appeared to be spreading: “Public discontent at how Brexit has been handled by the government continues, with perceived failings even in areas previously seen as a potential benefit from leaving the EU.

“More than half (53%) of leave voters now think that Brexit has been bad for the UK’s ability to control immigration, piling even more pressure on an issue the government is vulnerable on. Despite this, Brexit is likely to be a secondary issue at the next election compared to the state of the economy and the NHS, which are the clear priority for voters.”

Robert Ford, professor of political science at Manchester University, said that while there was now evidence that negative perceptions of Brexit, particularly on the economy, could have an effect on votes at a general election, Brexit was very unlikely to play such a direct role as it did at the last two general elections.

Ford said: “Voters’ attention has shifted decisively elsewhere, with leave and remain voters alike focused on the domestic agenda of rising bills, struggling public services and weak economic growth.

“The appeal of ‘Get Brexit Done’ was not just about completing the long Brexit process but also about unblocking the political system and delivering on other long-neglected issues. Brexit got done, but this has not unblocked the political system, and troubles elsewhere have only deepened. Many of the voters who backed the Conservatives to deliver change now look convinced that achieving change requires ejecting the Conservatives.

“This shift in sentiment may be particularly stark among the ‘red wall’ voters who rallied most eagerly to Johnson’s banner four years ago, but have been most exposed to rising bills and collapsing public services since. The final act of Brexit may yet be the collapse of the Brexit electoral coalition.”

One of the key claims of the Brexiters was that leaving the EU’s single market and customs union would usher in a new era of global trade for the UK based on trade deals with other parts of the world. Many voters now seem to have concluded that Brexit has in fact been bad for trade. Some 49% think it has been bad for the ability of UK firms to import goods from outside the EU, while 15% think it has helped.
​

Brexit has completely failed for UK, say clear majority of Britons – poll

Only one in 10 feel leaving the EU has helped their finances, while just 9% say it has benefited the NHS, despite £350m a week pledge

www.theguardian.com

 

[IMMY69]

What did Farage say on I'm a Celebrity?

Oh yes..."leaving the EU gives Britain the freedom to make a mess of it ourselves”.

 

[Technics 1210]

With right-wing parties and ideologies surging in Europe, Britain did the right thing to leave the EU.

Plus the UK economy is growing at a faster rate compared to the economic power house of Europe, Germany. Let this sink in.

 

[ElRaja]

britiain aint doing that bad, the core issues which plague britain, a lack of productivity (long term anemic growth pre brexit), and a monetary policy which is reliant on global trends (recent inflation), have nothing to do with Brexit, the only reason the opinion has "turned" is cos a load of old brexit voters are dead and have been replaced by kids who are pro europe.

britain has a great opportunity to define itself within the world, unfortunately, our leaders are mental midgets with little clue how to run a council, let alone a whole country. hopefully the coming destruction of the tory party in the next election will force core reforms, and a return to some merit or competence based promotion within the party.