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The UK economy, high inflation, rising interest rates, and the increasing cost of living

Interest rates are set to double in the next six months, with traders in financial markets betting the Bank of England will have to step up its efforts to stamp out price rises as inflation breaks into double digits.

Consumer prices rose by 10.1pc in July compared to a year earlier, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), outpacing the Bank’s forecasts of a 9.9pc jump.

Officials, led by Governor Andrew Bailey, have already raised rates from 0.1pc in December to 1.75pc earlier this month in an effort to stamp out rising prices.

Financial markets expect the Bank to now take the base rate to 3.5pc, or even 3.75pc, in early 2023. Another 0.5 percentage point increase is expected next month.

DT
 
Energy bills are expected to top £5,300 annually in April next year, a massive increase on previous predictions.

The dire news comes from energy consultancy Cornwall Insight in its final forecast before Ofgem confirms October's price cap this Friday.

Cornwall Insight's forecast for October this year has fallen very slightly from £3,583 for the average household, to £3,553.

The firm said that forecasts for this period had remained "largely steady" over recent weeks, but a 15% increase in wholesale energy prices last week has changed the outlook for next year.

The forecast is for January's cap to be £4,649.72 per year for the average household - compared to last week's forecast that it would reach £4,266 by this point.

And April's cap is forecast to hit £5,341.08 per year, compared to last week's forecast that it would reach £4,427.
 
Rising energy prices could push UK inflation as high as 18% next year, the highest rate in nearly 50 years, economic analysts have predicted.

Inflation - the rate at which prices rise - hit 10.1% in July, five times the Bank of England's (BoE) target.

Investment bank Citi said inflation was "entering the stratosphere" and could rise to 18%, while the Resolution Foundation said it could reach 18.3%.

The BoE predicted inflation will rise to more than 13% in the coming months.

Citi's forecast - which would be the UK's highest rate of inflation since 1976 - comes ahead of Friday's energy price cap announcement on the maximum amount suppliers can charge households for gas and electricity from October.

The investment bank's forecast is at the higher end of the scale compared to those made by other economists, such as EY-Parthenon which has forecast inflation to be at 15.4%.

However, economists at the Resolution Foundation think tank told the BBC that based on the current price cap predictions and the latest data on the rate prices are rising at, inflation could go as high as 18.3%.

Citi's chief UK economist, Benjamin Nabarro, said affordability concerns were "growing more deafening by the day".

"The question now is what policy may do to offset the impact on both inflation and the real economy," he said.

Full story at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62634795
 
UK economy shrank more than previously estimated in 2020, says ONS


The coronavirus pandemic dealt the UK economy a larger blow than previously estimated, according to official data on Monday that showed the country recorded its biggest fall in growth in gross domestic product since 1709.

The Office for National Statistics said it had revised down annual volume GDP growth in 2020 by 1.7 percentage points, meaning that it fell by 11 per cent, the largest in more than 300 years and the worst recorded among G7 countries.

Craig McLaren, ONS head of national accounts, said “the updated estimates for 2020” showed that “overall, the economy fared worse than we initially estimated”.

The revision means that the economy could now be smaller than initially estimated, and could suggest that the UK faced a cost of living crisis before it managed to recover fully from the hit of the pandemic.

Because of the downward revision for 2020, “growth in 2021 and 2022 will be starting from a lower point than we previously estimated”, added McLaren.

https://www.ft.com/content/b95e639f-7680-4b19-9d64-7c129186196f
 
Its not just the Covid that caused this mess. Its the brainless policy of shutting of fossil fuel production in the name of environment protection without thinking about how the alternatives work.

I don't know much about UK, but here in US, the economy got jolted with the Russia-Ukraine war. Biden administration's woke environment policies.
 
<b>Energy bills: Half of UK households face fuel poverty, EDF warns</b>

Half of UK households are facing fuel poverty this winter unless the government does more to help with energy bills, EDF has warned.

Philippe Commaret, a senior executive at EDF Energy UK, said without further support, people face a "catastrophic winter".
Energy bills are predicted to be nearly three times higher than last winter.

A household is considered to be in fuel poverty if it has to spend 10% or more of its income on energy.

From October, all UK households will start receiving payments providing a £400 discount on their fuel bills, with eight million low-income households set to receive an additional £650.

But the Liberal Democrats, Labour and most major energy suppliers are calling for further support for households, including for the energy price cap to be frozen at current levels.

The government has said no further measures will be announced before a new prime minister is in place from 5 September.

Mr Commaret, EDF Energy UK's managing director for UK customers, told the BBC the current level of support was "much too low" and called for additional help to be provided, including short-term help with bills and longer-term solutions such as better insulation for homes.

EDF had seen a 30% rise in calls from customers under stress and struggling to pay their bills, he said.

"All ideas to keep bills for customers flat should be considered," Mr Commaret said.

"Without further support from the government, more than half of UK households will likely be in fuel poverty by January."

"By way of context, I have to mention that we face, despite the support that the government [has] already announced, a dramatic and catastrophic winter for our customer," he said.

On Friday, the new energy price cap - the maximum amount suppliers can charge customers in England, Scotland and Wales for each unit of energy - will be announced.

The typical bill for an average household is expected to rise to more than £3,500 from October, up from the current figure of £1,971.

Last winter, the typical bill for homes was £1,277.

A sharp rise in wholesale gas prices this week means bills are likely to rise even further next year, to as much as £4,650 from January.

On Monday the price of gas soared after Russia said it would close down a key pipeline for maintenance work.

Experts fear the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which delivers Russian gas to Germany, may not reopen, making further price rises in the spring more likely.

But it is not just energy prices that are putting the squeeze on households.

Overall, inflation reached 10.1% in July, pushed higher by rising food costs, especially for staples such as bread, milk, pasta and butter. Investment bank Citi predicts that inflation could pass 18% next year.

Mr Commaret said any customers concerned about their bill should contact EDF for further support.

Plans to enable households to get discounts on electricity bills if they cut use at peak times are set to be announced by the National Grid in the next two weeks.

Mr Commaret said EDF was providing additional help and advice to its 3.4 million UK customers via an app to help customers identify ways to save fuel.

For example, he said UK households could save £60 a year by switching off appliances that were not being used.

EDF, which supplies gas and electricity to UK households, is 84% owned by the French state, but will soon be fully nationalised.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62643934
 
Its not just the Covid that caused this mess. Its the brainless policy of shutting of fossil fuel production in the name of environment protection without thinking about how the alternatives work.

I don't know much about UK, but here in US, the economy got jolted with the Russia-Ukraine war. Biden administration's woke environment policies.

I’m amazed that Biden has got this legislation through deadlocked Congress and laud him for it, though he hasn’t gone anything like far enough.

The decarbonisation of British power generation is too slow. There should have been much heavier investment in offshore wind farms, tidal power, energy from waste and small nuclear reactors.

Every new house and industrial development should be completed with PV panels, small wind turbines and grey water collectors. This is just good business sense.

We have to get rid of this truly dreadful Tory government first, and Labour appear to be heading for a landslide win.
 
I am worried that a Truss govt. will be forceful on the BoE to be more fiscally loose. Lowering taxes, increasing hand outs etc... will mean the debt burden will only grow larger. But the Tories will be more focussed on winning the next election in 2 years odd, so would prefer to kick the can down the road. So reign down increasing interest rates, more hand outs, lesser taxes, business subsidies/grants etc..etc..

This will mean the pound will be hammered. They will resolve this by telling us that they're making the pound more 'competitive' to improve our exports.
 
Just reading in a local financial paper that millions of Brits will be thrown into poverty as they will be unable to pay upcoming energy bills.

Whole World is in a mess now. Even here in Norway, the prices are completely out of control.
 
Energy prices are now orbital. Many in the West who live by the MSM narrative will claim astronomical energy prices are worth paying for Western freedom, but deep down they know this is all a lie.

Come winter when millions cannot afford their energy bills, when the elderly will die to to lack of heating etc, the perception of the Ukraine war will 100% change!
 
<b>Bank of England delays interest rate decision after Queen's death</b>

The Bank of England has postponed a key decision on interest rates following the death of Queen Elizabeth II.

It said that "in light of the period of national mourning", the Monetary Policy Committee's decision would now be announced at midday on 22 September.

It follows moves by several public bodies to change their plans for the coming week after the death of Britain's longest-reigning monarch.

The Bank had widely been expected to increase rates on Thursday.

Economists had been predicting that the UK's central bank would raise rates to 2.25% - the highest level since December 2008.

Last month, the Bank raised interest rates by the highest margin in 27 years in an attempt to keep soaring prices under control.

The BoE also predicted that the UK economy would fall into recession later this year.

Speaking in front of the Treasury Committee earlier this week, the Bank of England's governor, Andrew Bailey, defended its track record:

"The person going to put the UK in recession is Vladimir Putin, not the MPC [Monetary Policy Committee]."

He also said the Bank would take Prime Minister Liz Truss's energy plan announcement "into account" when next deciding on interest rates.

During her campaign, Ms Truss hit out at the Bank of England, accusing it of being slow to react to rising prices and protect vulnerable households.

But the new Chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, has reiterated his "full support for the independent Bank of England and their mission to control inflation, which is central to tackling cost of living challenges".

He has also said that he and Mr Bailey would meet twice a week from now on to discuss the rising cost of living.

Prices are rising at its fastest rate in 40 years, with inflation at 10.1%.

On Thursday, the prime minister has announced that the government would limit energy bill rises for all households for two years in an attempt to prevent widespread hardship.

A typical household energy bill will be capped at £2,500 annually until 2024.

Analysts say the huge support scheme could cost up to £150bn, but announcing the package Ms Truss said "extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures".

Further detail is expected by the end of the month, as the chancellor is expected to set out costings in a "fiscal event", where he will outline the level of borrowing necessary and any new tax measures he deems necessary to fund the package of support.

Full story at:-
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62847329
 
A mini Budget to outline how the government intends to pay for measures to tackle the cost-of-living crisis is still set to take place this month.

Politics has largely been put on hold during the 10-day period of mourning for the Queen, which lasts until her funeral on Monday.

But No 10 said it would deliver a "fiscal event" this month.

Last week, Ms Truss set out plans to limit energy bill rises for all households for two years.

Under the measures a typical household energy bill will be capped at £2,500 annually until 2024.

Businesses will also get support, with bills capped for six months.

However, the government has not given further details about the scheme, including how much it will cost.

Other plans include lifting the ban on fracking and new licences for North Sea oil and gas, to boost domestic supplies.

Ms Truss made the announcement just hours before the Queen's death.

Ordinary parliamentary business has been suspended for the period of mourning, although both Houses of Parliament sat on Friday and Saturday to allow politicians to pay tribute to the Queen.

The Commons is due to go into recess for more than three weeks from 22 September for the Labour and Conservative party conferences, leaving only a short window for the government to schedule a fiscal event.
 
<b>Business energy prices to be cut by half expected levels</b>

Energy bills for UK businesses will be cut by around half their expected level this winter under a huge government support package.

The scheme will fix wholesale gas and electricity prices for firms for six months from 1 October, shielding businesses from crippling costs.

Hospitals, schools and charities will also get help, the government said.

It comes after ministers announced a multi-billion pound plan to help households with bills for two years.

Analysts suggest the help for firms and households combined could cost up to £150bn.

Industry groups welcomed the package but warned further support may be needed after the winter.

It is understood the scheme will be reviewed after three months with an option to extend support for "vulnerable businesses" - but it is not known what sectors come under the category.

Wholesale prices, which are what suppliers pay for energy in bulk before they distribute it to customers, are expected to be fixed for all non-domestic energy customers at £211 per MWh for electricity and £75 per MWh for gas.

Those rates will be the base cost, to which other add-ons, such as standing charges will be added by suppliers.

Independent analysts Cornwall Insight said the plan marked a "substantial" 45% discount on wholesale energy prices at the end of last week.

The government said the scheme would apply to companies which had agreed fixed deals at higher prices on or after 1 April, when energy bills started to surge. Those on variable and flexible tariffs will also be eligible.

Companies do not need to contact suppliers as the discount will automatically be applied to their bills, with savings seen from October but received from November.

Josh Farrant, manager at The Ye Olde Fleece Inn in Kendal, Cumbria, said the pub was facing a hike in energy bills from £44,000 to around £124,000 a year before the government's wholesale cap was announced.

"That some help is coming gives us a bit of hope," he said. "But we are still massively going to have to look at the way we do things."

"It doesn't mean the panic is over. It's going to run for six months, then we'll see."

Guy Adams, who runs the Isle of Barra Beach Hotel in the Hebrides, said he had been quoted a 377% increase in his energy bills before the cap, which "would probably have finished us off".

"At present our cheapest room rate is £110 per night. We would have had to raise that to £415 per night," he told the BBC's Today programme.

However, he said because his seasonal hotel will close for the winter and reopen in May, it was "absolutely impossible" to set prices for bookings given the support package will only run until April.

"The fact that it is going to be reviewed in six months is not practical," he added.

Prime Minister Liz Truss said the government understood the "huge pressure" businesses, charities and public sector organisations faced with bills. She added that the new scheme would provide "certainty and peace of mind".

Bur Labour business spokesman Jonathan Reynolds said there were still questions about "how much this will cost and who will pay for it".

Lib Dem Treasury spokesperson Sarah Olney said the "delayed announcement" left businesses "under a cloud of damaging uncertainty".

"The government have no plan beyond these next six months, paralysing businesses who need to make decisions for the long term," she added.

The support will apply to all non-domestic energy customers in England, Scotland and Wales. A scheme offering comparable support will be established in Northern Ireland.

Officials have not said how much the package will cost the taxpayer, but Cornwall Insight estimates it at around £25bn.

Energy-intensive industries, such as steel-making, have warned that businesses could go bust due to their energy costs, which have surged since Russia invaded Ukraine.

Unlike households, businesses are not covered by an energy price cap, which is the maximum amount a supplier can charge per unit of energy. It means non-domestic bills have soared even higher.

The government announced earlier this month that bills for a typical household would be limited to £2,500 annually until 2024 under a separate scheme.

On Wednesday, the government also said:
• New laws would be introduced to ensure landlords passed the discount on to tenants who pay all-inclusive bills.
• An additional £100 payment would go to households that do not receive support for their heating costs, such as those not served by the gas grid.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62969427
 
Well well well, the mini budget has been announced and I am impressed. Key take aways:

The NI rise introduced by Sunak will be reversed from November.

Basic income tax rate reduce to 19% from 20% from April 2023.

Planned rise is corporation tax now frozen at 19%

Stamp duty threshold for first time buyers raises to £425000

Energy bills to be capped.

Labour and LDs - wipe those tears! You are not coming into power for a while now!

Well done Tories!
 
Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng has outlined a series of tax cuts and economic measures in a massive shake-up of the UK's finances

The basic rate of income tax has been cut to 19p in April 2023 and the 45% top rate of tax for higher earners abolished

The threshold before stamp duty is paid has been raised to £250,000 - for first time buyers it is raised to £425,000

The cap on bankers' bonuses has been lifted, and a planned rise in corporation tax has been scrapped

An increase in National Insurance has been reversed, and low-tax investment zones will be set up across the UK

Labour's shadow chancellor said the changes amounted to a "comprehensive demolition" of the government's last 12 years in power
 
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The chancellor has denied suggestions he is gambling with the economy as his raft of tax cuts were met with a hostile reception - and sent the pound plummeting to a 37-year low.

The Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS) said he was "betting the house" by putting government debt on an "unsustainable rising path".

Only those with incomes of over £155,000 will be net beneficiaries of tax policies announced by the Conservatives, with the "vast majority of income taxpayers paying more tax", said the respected financial think tank in a scathing assessment of the plans.

Mini-budget - latest updates

During a visit to a factory in Kent on Friday afternoon, Kwasi Kwarteng told reporters: "It's not a gamble.

"What is a gamble is thinking that you can keep raising taxes and getting prosperity, which was clearly not working.

"We cannot have a tax system where you are getting a 70-year high, so the last time we had tax rates at this level before my tax cuts was actually before Her late Majesty had acceded to the throne.

"That was completely unsustainable and that's why I'm delighted to have been able to reduce taxes across the piece this morning."

The Resolution Foundation think tank said the chancellor's measures would involve an extra £411bn of borrowing over the next five years.

It said the tax cuts do very little to boost the incomes of those who need it the most, pointing out that someone earning £1m a year would gain more than £55,220 a year, while someone on £20,000 would gain only £157.

Pound plunged to a four-decade low

The growth plan outlined by the chancellor to lift the UK from the depths of the cost of living crisis and back to prosperity has been met with horror on financial markets, with the pound taking a particular hammering late in the day.

Sterling, bonds, and share values all fell sharply in the wake of Mr Kwarteng's mini-budget.


The pound - already on its knees this month because of a strong dollar - slid below $1.09 for the first time in 37 years.

That was after US bank Citi declared on Friday afternoon that the currency was facing the prospect of a confidence crisis. It speculated that it could eventually hit parity with the dollar for the first time in history, but added that it expected sterling to settle within the $1.05-$1.10 range.

The all-time low of $1.0545 was witnessed on 25 February 1985.

Biggest tax cuts in 50 years

The chancellor revealed the biggest tax cuts for 50 years as part of the new economic agenda - a package that will be paid for through a huge leap in government borrowing.

He cut stamp duty for homebuyers, and brought forward a cut to the basic rate of income tax, to 19p in the pound, a year early, to April, as part of tax cuts costing up to £45bn annually.

The plans, which include the previously announced energy bill aid for households and businesses, raised the Treasury's debt issuance plans for the current financial year alone by £72.4bn to £234.1bn.

Taken together, It went much further than markets had been expecting.

The package was announced a day after the Bank of England warned the UK may already be in a recession and lifted interest rates to 2.25%.

How much stamp duty will home buyers now pay?

The FTSE 100 shed 2% of its value by the close, with miners and energy stocks among the worst performers.

Commenting on the package, Caroline Le Jeune, head of tax at accountants Blick Rothenberg, said: "In 25 years of analysing budgets this must be the most dramatic, risky, and unfounded mini-budget.

"Truss and her new government are taking a huge gamble."

SKYNEWS
 
Arguably the interest rate rises is a bigger crisis then the energy situation given how people may be paying between 300-600 quid extra on their mortgage. It’s not good news for homeowners or those who live on rent and will have pay more when prices go up.

If we are in a recession, I don’t know how long the bank of England can continue to do this in a time of need [MENTION=7774]Robert[/MENTION] their theory is, they are raising the rates to bring inflation down / spending and then they can look to bring the rate down, I don’t know if that logic is sound because the people are already budgeting for basic requirements. They are refusing to recognise that inflation is being driven by external factors to, largely.
 
Ask yourselves, as rates move higher, debt payments increase almost immediately, but why aren't banks raising the rates on saver accounts immediately?

You guessed it. Britain is broke: the country was insolvent in 2008 and since then the finances of this country have been propped up by one industry - housing.

When the housing market collapses, the energy crisis will seem like a summer picnic.
 
Arguably the interest rate rises is a bigger crisis then the energy situation given how people may be paying between 300-600 quid extra on their mortgage. It’s not good news for homeowners or those who live on rent and will have pay more when prices go up.

If we are in a recession, I don’t know how long the bank of England can continue to do this in a time of need [MENTION=7774]Robert[/MENTION] their theory is, they are raising the rates to bring inflation down / spending and then they can look to bring the rate down, I don’t know if that logic is sound because the people are already budgeting for basic requirements. They are refusing to recognise that inflation is being driven by external factors to, largely.

and now to conquer the expansiveness of the budget the boe will have to continue to raise rates.
 
Arguably the interest rate rises is a bigger crisis then the energy situation given how people may be paying between 300-600 quid extra on their mortgage. It’s not good news for homeowners or those who live on rent and will have pay more when prices go up.

If we are in a recession, I don’t know how long the bank of England can continue to do this in a time of need [MENTION=7774]Robert[/MENTION] their theory is, they are raising the rates to bring inflation down / spending and then they can look to bring the rate down, I don’t know if that logic is sound because the people are already budgeting for basic requirements. They are refusing to recognise that inflation is being driven by external factors to, largely.

The fact is even after these hikes, current interest rates are at historical lows. The issue is the BoE continued to keep interest rates artificially near to zero for decades that the public did not know any better. This helped them take on more expensive properties that would otherwise have been unaffordable. This boom led to a asset price inflation and created the UK housing bubble.

A country can't simply keep printing money, rack up debt and have near 0% interest rates forever.... one day this gravy train will stop. The problem is as a nation we're soo addicted to Quantitative easing and money printing that no one really knows how to bring this runaway train to a halt before de-railing the whole thing!
 
The fact is even after these hikes, current interest rates are at historical lows. The issue is the BoE continued to keep interest rates artificially near to zero for decades that the public did not know any better. This helped them take on more expensive properties that would otherwise have been unaffordable. This boom led to a asset price inflation and created the UK housing bubble.

A country can't simply keep printing money, rack up debt and have near 0% interest rates forever.... one day this gravy train will stop. The problem is as a nation we're soo addicted to Quantitative easing and money printing that no one really knows how to bring this runaway train to a halt before de-railing the whole thing!

Read an article where it was explained how a 4pct interest rate in todays world would equate to 11pct in the early 90's so although current rate looks historically low the affects are almost similar to the mid 90's levels and will soon hit late 80's/early 90's level.
 
That was anything but a "mini budget" - some of the most radical fiscal measures in decades.

I personally stand to benefit from the changes to IR35 (basically going back to the old rule where contractors determine if they fall within IR35 so subject to income tax and national insurance) and the dividends tax reduction.

IR35 changes led to a stupid situation where companies could make a blanket determination that a contractor is inside IR35 despite working short-term or occasionally, so your income is taxed like an employee without any employee benefits.

However I'm keenly aware there are those less fortunate who don't stand to gain as much from the tax cuts.

It's a big bet that the Govt have made, and without the economic growth they're hoping to kickstart, the country will face a very large invoice which will require either Osborne era spending cuts or significant tax rises.
 
The Bank of England has said it will "not hesitate" to hike interest rates to curb inflation after the pound fell to a record low against the US dollar.

The Bank said it was "monitoring developments closely" and would make a decision on any action in November.

Its statement came after the Treasury said it would publish a plan to tackle debt in a bid to reassure investors.

In Asia currency market trade on Tuesday, the pound rose by more than 1% to top $1.08.

On Monday, some UK lenders said that they were halting new mortgage deals.

Halifax, the UK's largest mortgage lender, said it would temporarily withdraw all mortgage products that come with a fee due to the market volatility.

Virgin Money and Skipton Building Society have also stopped offering mortgage products to new customers.

Experts said a rise in the cost of long-term borrowing due to the market turmoil meant the cost to lenders of offering new mortgage deals was too expensive.

Sterling fell to an all-time low earlier against the US dollar after Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng pledged further tax cuts at the weekend on top of Friday's mini-budget where he announced the biggest tax cuts in 50 years.

The pound had been sliding as global markets reacted to the sharp increase in government borrowing required to fund the cuts.

A weak pound makes it more expensive to buy imported goods and risks pushing up the rising cost of living even further. Imports of commodities priced in dollars, including oil and gas, are also more expensive.

UK inflation, the rate at which prices rise, is already rising at its fastest rate for 40 years.

Some economists had predicted the Bank of England would call an emergency meeting in the coming days to raise interest rates in a bid to stem the fall, as well as calming rising prices.

But the Bank of England instead said it was "monitoring developments in financial markets very closely" and would make a full assessment at its next meeting on 3 November.

Investors are now predicting that interest rates could more than double by next spring to 5.8% from their current 2.25%, to curb high inflation, which is expected to be fuelled by the huge tax cuts announced in Friday's mini-budget.

BBC
 
Pound rises in Asian trading after chaotic day

Spooked by the turmoil facing the pound, banks last night withdrew mortgage deals in anticipation of a rate rise from the Bank of England. Halifax, Virgin Money and Skipton were among lenders to take the step after a day of wild swings on currency markets as the pound fell to a record low against the dollar. Early today, the pound steadied in Asian markets as it began to recover some of its losses.

Yesterday's chaos led the Treasury to issue a statement pledging to set out its approach to managing the public finances, followed minutes later by the Bank of England saying it would not hesitate to increase rates at its next meeting. Deputy economics editor Tim Wallace writes that Governor Andrew Bailey failed to convince markets he can avoid an emergency interest rate rise.

Traders predict rates will hit 6pc mid way through next year, which would add £800 to the monthly cost of a typical mortgage. Conservative peer Lord Frost said the fallout to the mini-Budget had been an "overreaction", but some Tory backbenchers have expressed disquiet about the handling of the economy in the first month of Liz Truss's premiership. It comes as Sir Keir Starmer will today paint Labour as the party of "sound money"

DT
 
The pound is recovering already / will recover.

I’m not sure about taking away the top tax rate altogether, I was really surprised that the Conservatives did that and it feels a bit reckless — but reducing basic rate income tax and scrapping national insurance rises is a great double-move that will assist all average income and low income households across the country.

Labour agree for the most part — they have said that they would only reverse the top rate decision and keep the rest of it the same.
 
I'm waiting to see what the BoE does, if they do increase rates to as high as the rumoured 6% - I can see the housing market's long overdue crash.
 
This may be a good time for houseowners to consider moving onto a low fixed rate mortgage deal. Fixed rates have their detractors, partly for being locked-in deals with early repayment charges, and particularly during a stagnant low interest environment; but that scenario is not what is coming down the line. I am on a reasonably low fixed rate until April 2025 and feeling quite lucky about that at the moment. The fixed rate will provide security.
 
This may be a good time for houseowners to consider moving onto a low fixed rate mortgage deal. Fixed rates have their detractors, partly for being locked-in deals with early repayment charges, and particularly during a stagnant low interest environment; but that scenario is not what is coming down the line. I am on a reasonably low fixed rate until April 2025 and feeling quite lucky about that at the moment. The fixed rate will provide security.

Virgin Money and Skipton Building Society are taking on new new mortgage applications.
 
Virgin Money and Skipton Building Society are taking on new new mortgage applications.

That’s two relatively small providers, making up less than 5% of the market.

The Big 4 + the main building societies hold over 70% of the market and have plenty of mortgage products on offer.

There is no great alarm for the mortgage market unless a market leader such as Halifax or Nationwide was to stop accepting new applications, then there would be a knock-on effect and potentially a big problem.
 
By ERC you mean the overpayment charges?

Distinction w/o a difference… Overpaying incurs a charge on a fixed rate mortgage, whereas clearing the whole thing early and moving to a new deal elsewhere also gets a bigger charge. But a fixed rate for a fixed term might be good at the moment or the monthly payment could be all over the place (usually going north…)
 
I finally bought a new home about 2 months ago.

Paid over the odds for it due to the demand and locked myself into a 3 year mortgage rate.

Kicking myself a bit as if it was to go on the market now the demand just wouldnt be there and it could have been snapped up a bit cheaper....but on the contrary the interest rates would have been much higher.

It just seems like we are in a lose lose scenario whatever we do nowadays.

From a financial perspective I'm still ok as both me and my wife are in secure high income jobs.

But if people like me are keeping a close on eye on daily expenditure, I shudder to think how difficult those on low income, minimum wage jobs have it.

A housing market crash is something that people welcome, but the harsh reality of a crash is that it is triggered by people selling at a loss, in negative equity traps or because they are effectively now homeless as they can't pay up.
 
That was anything but a "mini budget" - some of the most radical fiscal measures in decades.

I personally stand to benefit from the changes to IR35 (basically going back to the old rule where contractors determine if they fall within IR35 so subject to income tax and national insurance) and the dividends tax reduction.

IR35 changes led to a stupid situation where companies could make a blanket determination that a contractor is inside IR35 despite working short-term or occasionally, so your income is taxed like an employee without any employee benefits.

However I'm keenly aware there are those less fortunate who don't stand to gain as much from the tax cuts.

It's a big bet that the Govt have made, and without the economic growth they're hoping to kickstart, the country will face a very large invoice which will require either Osborne era spending cuts or significant tax rises.

The changes to IR35 had more pros than cons imo

The system was being abused massively, particularly in the financial sector.
 
That’s two relatively small providers, making up less than 5% of the market.

The Big 4 + the main building societies hold over 70% of the market and have plenty of mortgage products on offer.

There is no great alarm for the mortgage market unless a market leader such as Halifax or Nationwide was to stop accepting new applications, then there would be a knock-on effect and potentially a big problem.

Halifax has!

Halifax, the UK's largest mortgage lender, said it would temporarily withdraw all mortgage products that come with a fee due to the market volatility.

Albeit temporary, but until the Gilts/GBP situation settles, said products will not be available!
 
I finally bought a new home about 2 months ago.

Paid over the odds for it due to the demand and locked myself into a 3 year mortgage rate.

Kicking myself a bit as if it was to go on the market now the demand just wouldnt be there and it could have been snapped up a bit cheaper....but on the contrary the interest rates would have been much higher.

It just seems like we are in a lose lose scenario whatever we do nowadays.

From a financial perspective I'm still ok as both me and my wife are in secure high income jobs.

But if people like me are keeping a close on eye on daily expenditure, I shudder to think how difficult those on low income, minimum wage jobs have it.

A housing market crash is something that people welcome, but the harsh reality of a crash is that it is triggered by people selling at a loss, in negative equity traps or because they are effectively now homeless as they can't pay up.

First of all — well done. Owning a home (and/or property in general) is good security imo. At least we have an asset that will always be worth something. There is also some research that suggests homeowners have better mental health outcomes than renters, which I found really interesting to discover. A three year initial fixed rate is fine; and particularly good timing right now.

The initial more precarious phase is always a bit of a worry with negative equity. You will feel like you are effectively paying the interest on your mortgage for the first 12-24 months and the numbers will barely seem to shift.

But stick it out for a few years and you will likely start to see quite a pleasing gap between (a) your mortgage balance and (b) the updated market value of your property given the natural passage of time.

I bought my house for £110k in the north of England during the Brexit negotiations and my mortgage balance was initially just below £100k, so I was quaking for a while — but giving it 6 years has seen my balance drop to £78k and the value of my property increase (for now) to offers in excess of £150k, which is what my neighbour with an identical house sold for this summer.

For a small property that’s a heck of lot of yield (around £80k — for the next property deposit, a future house move, other investments, or just some nice juicy equity sitting there) created from what feels like nothing, and it did not take a lot of effort to get there. One must merely remain stoic and pay one’s mortgage every month.
 
I finally bought a new home about 2 months ago.

Paid over the odds for it due to the demand and locked myself into a 3 year mortgage rate.

Kicking myself a bit as if it was to go on the market now the demand just wouldnt be there and it could have been snapped up a bit cheaper....but on the contrary the interest rates would have been much higher.

It just seems like we are in a lose lose scenario whatever we do nowadays.

From a financial perspective I'm still ok as both me and my wife are in secure high income jobs.

But if people like me are keeping a close on eye on daily expenditure, I shudder to think how difficult those on low income, minimum wage jobs have it.

A housing market crash is something that people welcome, but the harsh reality of a crash is that it is triggered by people selling at a loss, in negative equity traps or because they are effectively now homeless as they can't pay up.

Th country can't afford a property crash which is why all the incentives are there to try and prop up the market.

However, regardless of whether there is a crash or not, you have done wonderfully to buy your property.
Whether it drops 30 to 50% is irrelevant because in the long term you will always do well.
Also, I bet the mortage rate you fixed for three years is 1/1.5% below what is being offered now (may be even more).

James has already highlighted the positives of biuying your own home and, depending on the size of the mortgage, you should just relax and not worry about prices coming down. Most people who borrow 50 or even 60pct of the total value will have to see a substantial crash before it actually starts eating in to their investment (i.e. the deposit payment).

If and when the property market crashes, unless you're in the 1pct who can buy with cash, you would actually find it harder to buy the same property you own now even if it's 30-40pct cheaper so don't dwell on it.
 
Marr on LBC reported that three traders allegedly got with bd if the budget three days beforehand and shorted Sterling.

If that is true, it’s insider trading and Kwarteng must resign.
 
This may be a good time for houseowners to consider moving onto a low fixed rate mortgage deal. Fixed rates have their detractors, partly for being locked-in deals with early repayment charges, and particularly during a stagnant low interest environment; but that scenario is not what is coming down the line. I am on a reasonably low fixed rate until April 2025 and feeling quite lucky about that at the moment. The fixed rate will provide security.

i fixed mine for five years last year, and forced my family to fix our family house mortgage for three. i do not let a day go by without reminding them, lololol.

i would recommend a short term fix to normalise your budget, there are several supply factors which have fed into inflation, once the increased rates choke enough economic growth, and the supply side factors ease out (which they will have to)inflation will come down very fast, my own estimate is sometime around h1 next year.

the forward rate expectations will take a sharp nose dive then. of course this is all my speculation, everyone shd do their own research. this is gonna be a very 6 to 9 months, but all is not hopeless.

I finally bought a new home about 2 months ago.

Paid over the odds for it due to the demand and locked myself into a 3 year mortgage rate.

Kicking myself a bit as if it was to go on the market now the demand just wouldnt be there and it could have been snapped up a bit cheaper....but on the contrary the interest rates would have been much higher.

It just seems like we are in a lose lose scenario whatever we do nowadays.

From a financial perspective I'm still ok as both me and my wife are in secure high income jobs.

But if people like me are keeping a close on eye on daily expenditure, I shudder to think how difficult those on low income, minimum wage jobs have it.

A housing market crash is something that people welcome, but the harsh reality of a crash is that it is triggered by people selling at a loss, in negative equity traps or because they are effectively now homeless as they can't pay up.

time in the market beats timing the market, whatever vagueries there are 10, 15 years down the line will be irrelevant, don't stress too much about short-term fluctuations.

my rationale for why this will be sharp and painful but fundamentally short correction are above, u also have to remember that banks are not as leveraged as 2008, bank mortgage portfolios for the most part have some buffer to shocks, and whoever is in power come what may, literally and figuratively, is likely to support the housing market.

Halifax has!

Halifax, the UK's largest mortgage lender, said it would temporarily withdraw all mortgage products that come with a fee due to the market volatility.

Albeit temporary, but until the Gilts/GBP situation settles, said products will not be available!

the situation is currently pretty dire, you can raise deposits and put them straight into UK gilts and make money. either the saving rate will increase, or bond prices will to eventually close the gap, but until that happens, banks have a risk-free alternate to park cash and earn money, hence the developments in the mortgage markets.
 
Halifax has!

Halifax, the UK's largest mortgage lender, said it would temporarily withdraw all mortgage products that come with a fee due to the market volatility.

Albeit temporary, but until the Gilts/GBP situation settles, said products will not be available!

*Products that come with a fee.

Many of their mortgage products do not have at product fee.
 
The International Monetary Fund has launched a stinging attack on the UK’s tax-cutting plans and called on Liz Truss’s government to reconsider them to prevent stoking inequality.

In rare public criticism of a leading global economy, the Washington-based fund said Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget risked undermining the efforts of the Bank of England to tackle rampant inflation amid the cost of living emergency.

It said a statement planned by Kwarteng for 23 November presented an “opportunity for the UK government to consider ways to provide support that is more targeted and reevaluate the tax measures, especially those that benefit high income earners”.

The rebuke comes amid a growing international backlash over the chancellor’s £45bn of unfunded tax cuts, with the intervention from the IMF swiftly followed by sharp criticism from the credit rating agency Moody’s late on Tuesday. The US treasury secretary, Janet Yellen, also said the US was “monitoring developments very closely” in the UK.

As one of the most influential adjudicators in global financial markets, which rates the creditworthiness of governments and corporations on behalf of large investors, Moody’s said the UK’s “large unfunded tax cuts are credit negative”.

“A sustained confidence shock arising from market concerns over the credibility of the government’s fiscal strategy that resulted in structurally higher funding costs could more permanently weaken the UK’s debt affordability.”

The intervention from the IMF is rare given the influence of the UK in the global economy, and as one of the organisation’s largest shareholders.

Larry Summers, the former US treasury secretary, said such a warning shot from the IMF would be more usual for an emerging market economy than a country like Britain. He told the BBC’s Newsnight: “It is early days and things could change and economics is not an exact science, but I would certainly say that this has the look right now of a number of unforced errors.”

Summers said earlier on Tuesday that he was surprised the IMF had not intervened since the mini-budget on Friday.

The IMF has consistently warned countries to avoid universal bailouts in response to the energy price shock. It has argued that only the poorest households should be protected from higher energy bills and the extra costs from rising inflation to limit the impact on public borrowing.

In a move just days after Kwarteng’s mini-budget, and after the pound fell to the lowest ever level against the US dollar at one point on Monday, the organisation said it was “closely monitoring recent economic developments in the UK” and was engaged “with the authorities”.

“Given elevated inflation pressures in many countries, including the UK, we do not recommend large and untargeted fiscal packages at this juncture, as it is important that fiscal policy does not work at cross purposes to monetary policy,” the spokesperson said in the IMF’s first public reaction.

Kwarteng cut the top rate of tax from 45p to 40p and promised a 1p cut in the basic rate of tax from April next year. He also said he would retain corporation tax at 19% – scrapping a planned rise to 25% – and reverse a recent rise in national insurance payments, saying that the near £50bn cost would be added to the UK’s debt pile.

The move sent sterling and government bonds into freefall over the weekend and on Monday, despite Kwarteng arguing that the budget was aimed at growing the economy.

Kwarteng calmed markets by saying he would set out medium-term debt-cutting plans on 23 November, alongside forecasts from the independent Office for Budget Responsibility on the full scale of government borrowing.

The Bank of England also issued a notice saying it stood ready to raise interest rates to bring down inflation. However, most analysts forecast that the pound would continue to fall and borrowing costs rise unless the government reversed at least some of its planned tax cuts.

A Treasury spokesperson said: “Our energy price guarantee saves households £1,000 on average and we’re halving business energy bills.

“We are focused on growing the economy to raise living standards for everyone and the chancellor has announced he will publish his medium-term fiscal plan on 23 November, which will set out further details on the government’s fiscal rules.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...x-cuts-likely-to-increase-inequality-imf-says
 
This may be a good time for houseowners to consider moving onto a low fixed rate mortgage deal. Fixed rates have their detractors, partly for being locked-in deals with early repayment charges, and particularly during a stagnant low interest environment; but that scenario is not what is coming down the line. I am on a reasonably low fixed rate until April 2025 and feeling quite lucky about that at the moment. The fixed rate will provide security.

i fixed mine for five years last year, and forced my family to fix our family house mortgage for three. i do not let a day go by without reminding them, lololol.

i would recommend a short term fix to normalise your budget, there are several supply factors which have fed into inflation, once the increased rates choke enough economic growth, and the supply side factors ease out (which they will have to)inflation will come down very fast, my own estimate is sometime around h1 next year.

the forward rate expectations will take a sharp nose dive then. of course this is all my speculation, everyone shd do their own research. this is gonna be a very 6 to 9 months, but all is not hopeless.



time in the market beats timing the market, whatever vagueries there are 10, 15 years down the line will be irrelevant, don't stress too much about short-term fluctuations.

my rationale for why this will be sharp and painful but fundamentally short correction are above, u also have to remember that banks are not as leveraged as 2008, bank mortgage portfolios for the most part have some buffer to shocks, and whoever is in power come what may, literally and figuratively, is likely to support the housing market.



the situation is currently pretty dire, you can raise deposits and put them straight into UK gilts and make money. either the saving rate will increase, or bond prices will to eventually close the gap, but until that happens, banks have a risk-free alternate to park cash and earn money, hence the developments in the mortgage markets.

I fixed mine for a couple of years and am regretting not going for the 5 year fixed rate. So I am ok right now but my current rate will expire by end of next year.

I need to enquire further on my options but if I remortgage now there will be a charge.

Am unsure however if I should look to remortgage now and pay the early charge given my current low rate but I am concerned by the time I come to remortgage next year around July, rates may be up to 6%

Any suggestions welcome, thanks
 
Breaking News:

Bank will buy bonds on 'whatever scale is necessary'

The Bank of England has just announced that it will buy government bonds to "restore orderly market conditions".

This intervention is the Bank’s latest attempt to calm the markets after the pound fell and the cost of government borrowing spiked following last week’s mini-budget.

The Bank says "the purchases will be carried out on whatever scale is necessary to effect this outcome".

Government bond yields (the effective cost of government borrowing), especially at longer borrowing durations, have spiked in the past few days as investors continue to worry about the UK economy.

The Bank says the operation will be fully indemnified by HM Treasury and that the purchases would be "time limited".

Auctions will take place from today until 14 October.

BBC

Well, QE has restarted!
 
Without increase in productivity not sure how England hopes to maintain the economy standard of the country with only borrowing.

I can't event recall anything innovative other than ARM being from UK anymore.
 
Without increase in productivity not sure how England hopes to maintain the economy standard of the country with only borrowing.

I can't event recall anything innovative other than ARM being from UK anymore.

Yup. This is why USA and China can weather the storm because they are manufacturing power houses.

Meanwhile UK sold its soul to the largest single market and turned net importer.
 
UK financial management or mismanagement will be giving emerging market economies a run for their money, albeit without the latter's growth!
 
I fixed mine for a couple of years and am regretting not going for the 5 year fixed rate. So I am ok right now but my current rate will expire by end of next year.

I need to enquire further on my options but if I remortgage now there will be a charge.

Am unsure however if I should look to remortgage now and pay the early charge given my current low rate but I am concerned by the time I come to remortgage next year around July, rates may be up to 6%

Any suggestions welcome, thanks

Just found out what my ERC would be LOL I think I will have to bite the bullet next year.

Hoping we all get through this. Stay strong guys
 
Just found out what my ERC would be LOL I think I will have to bite the bullet next year.

Hoping we all get through this. Stay strong guys

Should be down in two years time, the problem with be Utility plus mortgage but considering your rate is good till EOY 2023, you are pretty much in safe spot for now.
 
Just found out what my ERC would be LOL I think I will have to bite the bullet next year.

Hoping we all get through this. Stay strong guys

Mate just save the amount you would have had to pay as penalty and pay down your mortgage when the current rate expires. As Jaded says, things may look ver different by this time next year.
 
Should be down in two years time, the problem with be Utility plus mortgage but considering your rate is good till EOY 2023, you are pretty much in safe spot for now.

Mate just save the amount you would have had to pay as penalty and pay down your mortgage when the current rate expires. As Jaded says, things may look ver different by this time next year.

Nice one guys am going to try and leave it as late as possible remortgaging next year unless we see a change hopefully in quarter 3
 
Things will look different next year? :)))

Rates are predicted to rise above 6%.

This info is in the links above.

Indebted folks bricking it.
 
Inflation is not going away soon, this is all orcheastrated they want something to break in the system so they can offer u the 'new solution'. CBDCs coming to u soon.
 
Inflation is not going away soon, this is all orcheastrated they want something to break in the system so they can offer u the 'new solution'. CBDCs coming to u soon.

That's what it seems like.

We are probably seeing smokes and mirrors while something sinister is going on behind the scene.

NWO?
 
I read that, had the BoE not intervened by buying up government gilt bonds yesterday, the pensions market would have collapsed. Many would have seen their retirement fund wiped out.

Truss and Kwarteng have no clue. They have to be replaced. Am hearing that Tories are already putting no confidence letters in.
 
I read that, had the BoE not intervened by buying up government gilt bonds yesterday, the pensions market would have collapsed. Many would have seen their retirement fund wiped out.

Truss and Kwarteng have no clue. They have to be replaced. Am hearing that Tories are already putting no confidence letters in.

Another new PM?
 
I read that, had the BoE not intervened by buying up government gilt bonds yesterday, the pensions market would have collapsed. Many would have seen their retirement fund wiped out.

The other separate story here is that this does not exactly engender much confidence about the security of our pensions if this is all it takes to supposedly wipe them out.

So either the UK pension market is an extremely fragile basketcase and we should all be moving our money under the mattress, or this story was slightly exaggerated.
 
You could bring back Thatcher, Major, Blair, Cameron, May, Boris, and all their #11s, it will make no difference.

The seeds for this crisis were sown in the 80s and 90s - the music has stopped.

Raise rates - and it is not only citizens who have to cough up more, but so too the government.

Don't raise rates - and inflation will evaporate value and affordability.

The GBP has been under pressure since 2008, and with next to no manufacturing in the UK, GBP remains over valued.

Finally, the entire economy of the UK is underpinned by the housing market, and when (not if) the housing market collapses, the UK will see austerity at levels never seen before, not even around WW1/2.
 
Russia has done the right thing, devolved and detached from the USD, as a result the Ruble remains strong.

UK must do the same, the world is subservient to the USD and its economy, and Amreeka doesn't care, just like the UK fell victim of the banking crisis which started in the USA.

Time to ditch the USD.
 
My wife and I are currently in the process of buying a new house. We have had an offer accepted, but have not yet formally started the process of buying yet.
I was wondering if it would be better of waiting and seeing, or taking the plunge. We would be cash buyers in the short term but may well have to take a loan out afterwards to repay a family member if they needed the money they borrowed back sooner.
 
My wife and I are currently in the process of buying a new house. We have had an offer accepted, but have not yet formally started the process of buying yet.
I was wondering if it would be better of waiting and seeing, or taking the plunge. We would be cash buyers in the short term but may well have to take a loan out afterwards to repay a family member if they needed the money they borrowed back sooner.

There has been talk of house prices falling 10-15%, but on the back of this talk I imagine that measures will be taken to prevent the collapse from happening. So it’s a difficult one.
 
My wife and I are currently in the process of buying a new house. We have had an offer accepted, but have not yet formally started the process of buying yet.
I was wondering if it would be better of waiting and seeing, or taking the plunge. We would be cash buyers in the short term but may well have to take a loan out afterwards to repay a family member if they needed the money they borrowed back sooner.

I’d hang fire to see if houses prices fall, as they did in the early nineties.
 
My wife and I are currently in the process of buying a new house. We have had an offer accepted, but have not yet formally started the process of buying yet.
I was wondering if it would be better of waiting and seeing, or taking the plunge. We would be cash buyers in the short term but may well have to take a loan out afterwards to repay a family member if they needed the money they borrowed back sooner.

It's a tough call. Theory dictates that this sort of QE cannot be sustained, but the UK has relentlessly stuck to loose fiscal policies. We saw the London financial system begin to sweat even before BoE has done any sort of real meaningful tightening.

On top of this they've just announced the stamp duty reduction.

So to answer in a more direct manner, if the UK house prices should crash, it should've already done so yesterday because the fundamentals do not add up.

Instead both the govt. and the BoE have been actively involved in inflating the house price bubble. I am expecting more supportive measures soon. That said if it does pop.... well a house price fall will be the last of your worries.
 
I read that, had the BoE not intervened by buying up government gilt bonds yesterday, the pensions market would have collapsed. Many would have seen their retirement fund wiped out.

Truss and Kwarteng have no clue. They have to be replaced. Am hearing that Tories are already putting no confidence letters in.

I am in this field and what you heard is correct. I expected Japan to have this situation first, but recent announcement by new leaders made the market react the way it reacted. Central bank monetary policies are trying to bring down inflation, but government fiscal policies are putting more fuel to fire to increase inflation.

Many big pension funds were closed to getting wiped out. Wall Street Journal and Barrons had a very detailed article on this. Problem is structural here. UK productivity growth has come to a stand still in the last 2 decades. Using debt to subsidized many things works well when productivity is growing at the same proportion.

If all it took 4-5% rate for pension funds to getting wiped out, then problem was them trying to reach for yield by taking leverage. UK is better off by taking small steps in right direction to avoid making huge mistake in policy otherwise situation in 2 years may look similar to many emerging economies. US dollar appreciating so quickly is putting pressure on many currencies. I expect we will see trouble in other parts as well. Hopefully, leaders around the world will stop policies which made inflation worse. Lower inflation in the last two decades had given a false sense of security.
 
It's a tough call. Theory dictates that this sort of QE cannot be sustained, but the UK has relentlessly stuck to loose fiscal policies. We saw the London financial system begin to sweat even before BoE has done any sort of real meaningful tightening.

On top of this they've just announced the stamp duty reduction.

So to answer in a more direct manner, if the UK house prices should crash, it should've already done so yesterday because the fundamentals do not add up.

Instead both the govt. and the BoE have been actively involved in inflating the house price bubble. I am expecting more supportive measures soon. That said if it does pop.... well a house price fall will be the last of your worries.

I don't follow UK closely, but Japan had elevated housing prices for decades. It was elevated artificially for so long. For the next two decade it went downward. Point I was trying to make that it can take long time for prices to adjust based on fundamentals, but it always does. I don't know anything about UK housing so my comments are generic here.
 
I don't follow UK closely, but Japan had elevated housing prices for decades. It was elevated artificially for so long. For the next two decade it went downward. Point I was trying to make that it can take long time for prices to adjust based on fundamentals, but it always does. I don't know anything about UK housing so my comments are generic here.

Japan however is a manufacturing giant and an export driven economy. Totally the opposite to the UK which is an import economy.
 
Japan however is a manufacturing giant and an export driven economy. Totally the opposite to the UK which is an import economy.

Yes, it's true and that makes UK situation tricky. Bubble level of Japan was too high so situation may not be comparable. I was using Japan just as an example of asset inflation and deflation taking decades.
 
The Cuckservatives and their most loyal/blind Cucksupporters have plunged the nation into disarray, look no further then the fascination Amber and Lizz have with this Kwassi fella and the Cuckservative way is reinforced, absolute degenerate plebs
 
Keep as little money in the bank right now, stack ur cash under your mattress, hide it in crypto, buy gold and silver, you Will see bank bail ins next year.
 
Keep as little money in the bank right now, stack ur cash under your mattress, hide it in crypto, buy gold and silver, you Will see bank bail ins next year.

Crypto is probably not a good idea as it is very unpredictable.

Agree with other suggestions.
 
<b>Former Bank of England governor Mark Carney has accused the government of "undercutting" the UK's key economic institutions.</b>

Mr Carney told the BBC the government's tax-cutting measures were "working at some cross-purposes" with the Bank.

He also pointed to a decision not to publish economic forecasts by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) alongside Friday's "mini-budget".

The mini-budget sparked turmoil on financial markets and hit the pound.

Investors had been demanding a much higher return for investing in government bonds, causing some to halve in value.

Pension funds, which invest in bonds, were forced to start selling, sparking fears of a fresh market downturn.

The Bank of England was forced to step in to calm markets and on Wednesday, said it would buy £65bn of government bonds over the next fortnight in an attempt to restore stability.

Sterling hit a record low against the US dollar of around $1.03 on Monday. It has since risen to around $1.08 after the Bank's announcement and remained there after Prime Minister Liz Truss said she would stand by the measures announced in the mini-budget.

The cost of government borrowing, however, edged higher and the interest paid - or yield - on 10-year government debt rose.

Speaking to the BBC's Today programme, Mr Carney said that while the government was right to want to boost economic growth:

"There is a lag between today and when that growth might come."

He said: "There was an undercutting of some of the institutions that underpin the overall approach - so not having an OBR forecast is much-commented upon and the government, I think, has accepted the need for that but that was important."

The OBR provides independent forecasts of the impact of government's plans on the economy as well as on public finances.

The Treasury decided not to publish its forecasts on Friday, which fuelled market turmoil.

"Unfortunately having a partial budget, in these circumstances - tough global economy, tough financial market position, working at cross-purposes with the Bank - has led to quite dramatic moves in financial markets," Mr Carney said.

The Treasury has subsequently said the OBR will release a full forecast when Mr Kwarteng announces his medium-term fiscal plan on 23 November.

Mr Carney also said that the government's mini-budget showed it was "working at some cross-purposes with the Bank in terms of short-term support for the economy".

Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng unveiled the country's biggest tax package in 50 years on Friday. But the £45bn-worth of tax cuts has sparked concerns that government borrowing could surge along with rising interest rates.

The Bank has a target to keep inflation at 2%. But prices are rising at their fastest rate in four decades and the Bank has been lifting interest rates to cool inflation.

Since the mini-budget, some economists believe interest rates could rise faster and higher, to as much as 6% by next May.

Ms Truss insisted that the government's plan was "right".

In her first remarks since Friday's announcement, Ms Truss told the BBC: "Of course there are elements of controversy, as there always are."

But she said: "This is the right plan that we've set out."

On Wednesday, Treasury Minister Andrew Griffith said that every major country "is dealing with exactly the same issues" as the UK such as Russia's war with Ukraine and the effect on energy prices.

But while Mr Carney conceded that the global economy is "going through some difficulties", he said that over the last week "developments have centred around the UK" and that recent financial turmoil was a response to the government's mini-budget.

Mr Carney was the governor of the Bank of England for almost seven years, from July 2013 to March 2020.

Before that he led Canada's central bank for five years, where he is seen as having played a major role in helping the country avoid the worst effects of the 2008 global financial crisis.

His successor as governor, Andrew Bailey, declined to comment on Thursday on whether the Bank would make further interventions.

Some economists - including former deputy governor Sir Charlie Bean - suggested that the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee call an emergency meeting and raise interest rates before a scheduled meeting on 3 November.

Mr Carney said it was "important that the system functions" but added: "We're talking about an interest rate meeting five weeks from now and it is important to see the persistence of the exchange rate moves, it is important to see what else the government does and take that into account."

He added: "This is a robust system, this is a resilient system, it has had a big knock but it will move forward."

The Bank is widely expected to raise interest rates before Mr Kwarteng announces his fiscal plan in late November.

This should set out how the government intends to follow its own fiscal rules.

The current fiscal rules state that debt should be falling as a share of the UK's gross domestic product - which is all the goods and services that the country produces - by 2024-25.

The rules also dictate that by that same financial year, daily public spending should be balanced by revenues.

But it is possible that Mr Kwarteng could set out his own rules in November, changing those drawn up by his predecessor Rishi Sunak in November 2021.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63070485
 
The government is to pull forward its long awaited debt plan from late November, the BBC understands.

The Treasury Select Committee, former Chancellor George Osborne, and many in the markets have advised the government not to allow a hiatus of several weeks’ market speculation over how its numbers will add up.

The chancellor told the Conservative conference that the figures would be provided “shortly” rather than 23 November.

While the date is to be confirmed, it could occur this month, after the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) told the Treasury it could complete its deliberations in a faster timeframe.

The OBR will cost all the policies announced by the chancellor and provide new numbers for borrowing.

The budget watchdog will also cast judgement on the government’s claims that its raft of reform policies will boost the growth of the economy.

The numbers will set the parameters for critical decisions on the extent of spending cuts required to meet the chancellor’s fiscal targets, given the £43bn in unaccounted tax cuts.

It is the latest sign that Number 11 is willing to do what it takes to regain confidence lost since the mini-budget, following the acknowledgement of problems with the mini-budget and the U-turn over the scrapping of the 45p rate.

But the decisions revealed by the OBR analysis will lead to a different set of tough decisions - how to make the numbers add up.

Independent analysts say the scale of required cuts could rival the 2010 coalition austerity programme.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-63114183
 
Dead cat bounce.

The U-Turn on the 45% tax rate only save around £2 Billion out of the £45 Billion needed to fund the tax cuts. This means the BoE is still £43 Billion short.

We are seeing a relief rally in the GBP.

Come winter, reality will settle in more ways than one.
 
<b>Average two-year mortgage rate highest for 14 years</b>

The interest rate on a typical two-year fixed rate mortgage has breached 6% for the first time in 14 years.

The typical deal has a rate of 6.07%, the financial information service Moneyfacts says, a level not seen since the financial crisis in November 2008.

Mortgage rates have been going up for months, but recorded a sharp increase in response to the fall-out from the mini-budget nearly two weeks ago.

First-time buyers and those looking to remortgage are affected.

An average of at least 100,000 people a month are coming to the end of their current mortgage, and face a significant rise in their monthly repayments.

"Borrowers may well be concerned about the rise to fixed mortgage rates but it is essential they seek advice to assess the deals that are available to them right now," said Rachel Springall from Moneyfacts.

"Fixing for longer may seem more appealing, particularly as both the average two- and five-year fixed rates rise to levels not seen in over a decade. Consumers must carefully consider whether now is the right time to buy a home or to wait and see how things change in the coming weeks."

Brokers say lenders are "playing safe" with rates amid current economic uncertainty, but costs could eventually start to dip.

Uncertainty over future interest rates after the mini-budget led lenders to pull more than a thousand deals from the market.

They are slowly starting to return - there were 3,961 products a fortnight ago, now there are 2,371 - but have become more expensive on average.

Representatives from High Street banks and mortgage lenders are meeting Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng on Thursday, with the current situation facing borrowers on the agenda.

It is understood that this is the latest in a regular series of discussions.

Bosses from Barclays, Natwest and Lloyds Banking Group are expected to attend.

The interest rate on a new, average two-year fixed deal on the morning of the speech was 4.74%, compared with 6.07% now.

That is a difference of about £170 a month on repayments for somebody borrowing £200,000 on a 30-year mortgage.

A five-year fixed deal has typically risen from 4.75% to 5.97% over the same period.

That leap will be much greater when compared to a borrower's previous deal taken out two or five years ago.

Some more specialist lenders, whose customers may include those with a chequered credit history or the recently self-employed, have been raising rates to 6.5-7% or more.

In the meantime, the average standards variable rate - which by nature are changeable and are paid by 900,000 homeowners - has gone up from 4.41% at the start of the year to 5.63% at the start of October.

During her speech at the Conservative Party conference, Prime Minister Liz Truss said that the government "will do what we can" to support homeowners.

However, she said that the benchmark interest rate was set independently by the Bank of England.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63144506
 
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has criticised the chancellor's mini-budget again, just days after warning it will fuel the cost-of-living crisis.

The body, which works to create global financial stability, admitted tax cuts announced by Kwasi Kwarteng would lift economic growth in the short-term.

But it said the cuts would "complicate the fight" against rising prices.

It warned that "for many people 2023 will feel like a recession" with costs spiralling even further.

Economic growth in the UK is set to grind to a near halt next year, growing by 0.3%.

That marks a 0.2% downgrade from the IMF's July forecast, and a sharp fall from the 3.6% rate of growth for the UK economy expected in 2022.

The most recent figures included in the new World Economic Outlook report by the influential financial institution do not, however, take into account the chancellor's recent mini-budget.

The body, which works to stabilise the global economy, has also downgraded its economic growth forecasts due to the impact of Russia's Ukraine invasion.

'Steady hand'
After Kwasi Kwarteng unveiled plans for huge tax cuts, the IMF criticised the government's proposals warning that the measures are likely to fuel the cost-of-living crisis.

In an unusually outspoken statement, the IMF said the proposal was likely to increase inequality and add to pressures pushing up prices.

The IMF works to stabilise the global economy and one of its key roles is to act as an early economic warning system.

It said it understood the government's package aimed to boost growth, but it said that the tax cuts could speed up the pace of price rises, which the UK's central bank is trying to bring down.

In its latest report on Tuesday, economic counsellor Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said: "As storm clouds gather, policymakers need to keep a steady hand".

It acknowledged that that biggest tax package in 50 years set out by the chancellor would "lift growth somewhat in the near term", despite the fact it sparked turmoil on financial markets.

It also added that the measures would "complicate the fight" against inflation, which measures how the cost of living changes over time.

The IMF also cautioned that governments would need to protect the least well-off from the impact of higher prices.

Poorer households often spend relatively more than others on food, heating, and fuel, it pointed out - all areas that have seen steep price rises as energy and grain exports have been restricted after the invasion of Ukraine.

And countries that are reliable on Russian gas in Europe are being hit particularly badly. Germany's economy, for example, is now predicted to contract next year.

BBC
 
Jacob Rees-Mogg has claimed market turmoil is not linked to the mini-budget in which the chancellor announced big tax cuts without the usual analysis of the economic impact.
The business secretary said volatility was "more to do with interest rates than a minor part of fiscal policy."
He said the Bank of England had not raised rates as fast as the US.
But economists and some MPs said the plans had worried investors, pointing to the surge in borrowing costs.
Investors are often wary of putting money into countries that are increasing their debt.
And if a country raises its interest rates it means investors will get a bigger return on their money if they put it into that country's banks and assets.
After the mini-budget, the pound plunged and government borrowing costs surged.
"What has caused the effect in pension funds... is not necessarily the mini-budget. It could just as easily be the fact that the day before the Bank of England did not raise interest rates as much as the (US) Federal Reserve did," he said.
"Jumping to conclusions about causality is not meeting the BBC's requirement for impartiality" he said, after a suggestion the chancellor's actions had been the trigger for the fluctuations in the value of the pound and government bonds.
At the first PMQs since the mini-budget, Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer accused Prime Minister Liz Truss of "ducking the question" when asked whether she agreed with the business secretary.
Ms Truss said the government had taken "decisive action", adding "as a result of our action... we will see higher growth and lower inflation."

Separately, speaking at the Treasury Select Committee on Wednesday Deutsche Bank's chief UK economist Sanjay Raja said the mini-budget on 23 September was the "straw that broke the camel's back".
He said the "trade shock" because of Brexit is a factor, and added: "You throw on the 23 September event, you've got a side-lined financial watchdog, you've got lack of a medium-term fiscal plan, one of the largest unfunded tax cuts we've seen since the early 1970s, it was kind of the straw that broke the camel's back."
The Resolution Foundation's Torsten Bell said it was clear the huge package of cuts, which was downgraded to £43bn after Mr Kwarteng's U-turn on the top rate of income tax, should not have happened in the current financial climate.
He said the sacking of the Treasury's top civil servant Sir Tom Scholar and the lack of a report on the economic impact from independent forecaster the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) had contributed to investor unease.
"It was no surprise to any of us that this is where you end up".
"This is what happens if you aren't paying attention," he said. "It was always going to be hard but it was exactly because it was always going to be hard that you don't do this."
The latest official statistics showed the economy unexpectedly shrank in August, strengthening predictions that it will fall into a recession.

BBC
 
Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng has insisted he is "not going anywhere", despite the market turbulence he admitted was caused in part by his policies.

Asked if he and PM Liz Truss would still be in their jobs this time next month, he said: "Absolutely, 100%."

Mr Kwarteng also sidestepped questions about whether he would U-turn on parts of his mini-budget, saying: "Our position hasn't changed."

He is facing growing calls from Tory MPs to rethink his tax-cutting package.

Discussions are under way between the prime minister and backbenchers about what her party can accept.

The mood among Tory MPs is angry and fatalistic. "It's checkmate, we're screwed," one told the BBC.

"There is no question in my mind, they'll have to junk loads of this stuff and U-turn," another said.

Some think the government's tax-cutting plans should be reversed, while others think the help with energy bills should be more targeted.

Other scenarios being discussed by Tory MPs include the chancellor resigning or the prime minister being ousted.

However, there is little agreement on what should happen next or who should replace Ms Truss if she is removed.

The government has already U-turned on its plan to scrap the top rate of income tax, but this only made up £2bn of the tax cuts announced by the chancellor last month.

He is under pressure to spell out how the remaining £43bn will be paid for, and how he will get the UK's national debt falling.

Mr Kwarteng is due to deliver a statement on 31 October, along with independent economic forecasts.

Pressed on whether there could be further U-turns on his mini-budget, Mr Kwarteng, who is in Washington for an IMF meeting, said there would be more detail on 31 October.

Asked about the possibility corporation tax could rise, Mr Kwarteng said he was "totally focused" on delivering his mini-budget.

Ms Truss has pledged to scrap a planned rise to the tax, which was set to increase from 19% to 25% in 2023.

On Wednesday, she said it would be "wrong"
to raise corporation tax "when we are trying to attract investment into our country at a time of global economic slowdown".

In an interview with Sky News, former Home Secretary Priti Patel said the market would now "dictate" the prime minister's decision on corporation tax "primarily because we want to see stability".

The pound rose against the dollar as rumours emerged about a possible government U-turn.

However, it later fell back after stronger-than-expected inflation data from the US drove up the value of the dollar.

In an interview in the Daily Telegraph, when asked about the market response to the speculation of a U-turn on corporation tax, Mr Kwarteng said: "Let's see."

However, he added that he still thought ensuring "competitive" tax rates for businesses was a "great idea".

The chancellor's mini-budget on 23 September has caused turmoil in the financial markets and prompted the Bank of England to intervene to protect pension funds.

Mr Kwarteng acknowledged there was "some turbulence" after his mini-budget but said there was "a very dicey situation globally", with inflation, potential interest rate rises and energy price spikes affecting everybody.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-63244805
 
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