Ab Fan
Senior Test Player
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- Sep 24, 2015
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This is not a jinxing thread but given the current scenario of the teams and the matches coming up, Pakistan actually have the best chance to win this tournament.
Let us have a look at bogey teams for each of the four qualified teams :
New Zealand 's bogey team - Pakistan, England
England 's bogey team - Pakistan( lost in CT'17 and WC'19)
India's bogey team - New Zealand
Pakistan 's bogey team - Australia, India
Now given the qualifications scenarios :
S1 :- India vs England (Adelaide)
S2 :- NZ vs Pakistan ( Sydney)
The game between NZ and Pakistan is a game in which Pakistan go as favourites based on the enocunters of the two teams historically and also in recent times. The conditions in Sydney also gives Pakistan a great advantage.
India vs England could have been anyone's game. But on paper, England are stronger team, favourites and they do have an advantage vs India after beating them in 2019 World Cup. If England were not a strong team, India could have choked England like in 2013 CT Final.
This gives us a Pakistan vs England in Finals and if there is one team that England struggle in World Cups and Knockouts that is Pakistan. This gives Pakistan a scenario similar to 1992 World Cup.
Another scenario which is very less likely at the moment is if India loses to Zimbabwe then the semi final matches are :
India vs NZ- NZ
Pak vs Eng - Anyone but Pak has history on their side
NZ vs Pak - Pak should be favourites here too.
So, even in this scenario, Pakistan has a great chance of going all the way through and win the tournament. Their biggest mental block is against Australia who are out of this tournament already.
The only scenario where Pakistan may find it slightly tough is if they face India in finals because India have a 13-1 record against them in World Cups and India at the moment can afford a World Cup loss but not a loss vs Pakistan.
To conclude, Pakistan looks as the strongest contender for winning this tournament all of a sudden.
Let us have a look at bogey teams for each of the four qualified teams :
New Zealand 's bogey team - Pakistan, England
England 's bogey team - Pakistan( lost in CT'17 and WC'19)
India's bogey team - New Zealand
Pakistan 's bogey team - Australia, India
Now given the qualifications scenarios :
S1 :- India vs England (Adelaide)
S2 :- NZ vs Pakistan ( Sydney)
The game between NZ and Pakistan is a game in which Pakistan go as favourites based on the enocunters of the two teams historically and also in recent times. The conditions in Sydney also gives Pakistan a great advantage.
India vs England could have been anyone's game. But on paper, England are stronger team, favourites and they do have an advantage vs India after beating them in 2019 World Cup. If England were not a strong team, India could have choked England like in 2013 CT Final.
This gives us a Pakistan vs England in Finals and if there is one team that England struggle in World Cups and Knockouts that is Pakistan. This gives Pakistan a scenario similar to 1992 World Cup.
Another scenario which is very less likely at the moment is if India loses to Zimbabwe then the semi final matches are :
India vs NZ- NZ
Pak vs Eng - Anyone but Pak has history on their side
NZ vs Pak - Pak should be favourites here too.
So, even in this scenario, Pakistan has a great chance of going all the way through and win the tournament. Their biggest mental block is against Australia who are out of this tournament already.
The only scenario where Pakistan may find it slightly tough is if they face India in finals because India have a 13-1 record against them in World Cups and India at the moment can afford a World Cup loss but not a loss vs Pakistan.
To conclude, Pakistan looks as the strongest contender for winning this tournament all of a sudden.