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A well constructed argument to explain why peace is the need of the hour as far as Pakistan is concerned.
Well done and Congratulations to [MENTION=151956]Bigboii[/MENTION] for winning the POTW for Time Pass & Sports
http://www.pakpassion.net/ppforum/s...past-and-move-forward&p=11141838#post11141838
Well done and Congratulations to [MENTION=151956]Bigboii[/MENTION] for winning the POTW for Time Pass & Sports
http://www.pakpassion.net/ppforum/s...past-and-move-forward&p=11141838#post11141838
(My thought process according to what I am observing over the years between China, Pakistan, defense articles and whatever little I know about the region I am not claiming that this 100% true but something that I believe is taking place)
When COAS says something the whole of Pakistan listens (cause they dont say stuff just for the hell of it and they also have the authority to implement their thoughts) and these statements are borderline unprecedented unless and until they are serious
Last time a COAS who gave these kinds of comments was Musharaf and we got very close to a settlement
From Pak prospective India is funding baloch,MQM,Afghan and the whole nine yard (not interested in if its happening or not just something that army and Pakistani people think india is responsible for that just like India think Pulwama and Kargil was a Pak karnama)
So this would also be Pak army's concern if they let go will the other side also let go?
SO expecting Pak to lay down the Kashmir insurgency BEFORE any substantial talks probably won't happen just like India won't release their assets - the serious heads in Indian diplomatic circles would know this, hell I think even the PM would know and expect this
that's why some kind of trust building sessions should take place to atleast test the waters (I think GOI is also interested yes they gave the typed response but stuff that I am looking at in the articles, journalists am getting a hunch that they are testing the waters rn to see what if Pakistan is serious or not and then they'll give the appropriate response)
I hope this is not the GOI policy (that until and unless pakistan stop funding Kashmri militants they won't talk even if it means keeping the issue on the hanger) but if this issue isn't resolved now India is asking for unnecessary and avoidable trouble down the line
these couple of years are the perfect time to remove a threat from their borders to focus on the big gun that is China
if you don't finish this thing off quickly China will keep pumping big arms(with plans of more sophisticated top of the line Chinese weaponry rn going to Pak armoury) and keep you engaged on both sides unnecessarily and even if Pakistan wants a peace deal later on China probably won't let that happen
Pakistan is making a shift and Pak army is hesitant (they REALLY like the US more) but if peace with India isn't possible than full and DEEP alliance similar to something like US south Korea is 100% on the cards between Pak and China
Now why are they hesitant Chin is a lot more authoritarian towards Pakistan thats their style
Pak army thinks they are a risk to our nation's sovereignty (and their authority wink wink…) and they would rather not go “too” deep with tham
Friendship friendship khel is good but now the adult side of the situation is coming up and Pak army doesn't like what they are seeing
So only option left is peace with India to get out of this relationship and actually stop ourselves from deepening those relationships with China
If India refuses we have to fully depend on China to counter India and defend ourselves
Economy will pick up 5-10 years (it wont reach the crazy booms but there will be decent growth to keep us going and maybe reach a level just below middle income if thing go really well)
Why would this happen?
When we look at relationship between countries we have to look at weaponry
The US never gives its top weapons to lalu allies it's SK,Israel, NATO if we look at their economies they were flourished by and somewhat dependent on the US (it wouldn't have happened if their political system was decent, something that China should consider...)
If we look at Pak army in last couple years Chinese (who are trying to emulate US in creating alliances) TOP weaponry and serious military drills are happening between the two countries in active areas where chances of war is possible (drills happen to increase coordination in case of a war most of the drills are non serious and not that “to the point”, but these were serious and little more “secretive”...from the defense experts I follow (including western,indian and of course the Pakistani ones) they were planned by chinese to counter indian threat and how they would jointly counter the indian threat)
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com...ip-for-pakistan-navy/articleshow/80606252.cms
(you can find many such articles across the internet to test my claim)
No countries give serious weaponry to any country if they don't want serious alliance (like UK, SK,Israel has with US)
China is doing the same with Pakistan
CPEC was just a testing of waters and was laying down of infrastructure before the big chinese company/manufacturing move, China is trying shifting its boring businesses (that US did to China couple decades ago) so they can do the main things and these things are outsourced to their trusted allies
1st thing of military power is decent economy so the military side of things aren't impacted
these steps are there to keep Pakistan stable economically and most of all “reliant” on China - this keeps the military strong, a trusted ally economically good and in decent shape while fully in control of Chinese control a truly perfect blend
So if Pakistan/army agrees to give up thier authority/sovereignty economy would bounce back
Why? 1 teer sey toh sheekar
Pakistan is located at a seriously good geographical point so superpowers try to get on their good side to take advantage of that position by having a strong ally/military presence there (just like US before China)
Also Pakistan have a ready made hatred for their regional rival
This gives them an advantage they can hurt INdia through Pakistan (keeping them engaged on our borders, terrorism and so many other things) without looking like the bad guy
India would know who is actually pulling the trigger so they'll get the message but China isn't doing anything on face value
To suggest china isn't there to hurt India is a naive assumption they just did a massive cyber attack on Mumbai or its electrical system (according to former CIA agent Mike Baker), the boder war
Their plan is to dominate/humiliate India enough that any comparisons between them shoundt take place and the dominance of the region should go undisputedly to China
So they'd love to keep India on its tow though its own “activities” in addition to old school Pakistani techniques - Pakistan is a great ally to do their dirty work they'll lift Pakistan up economically, millitarically to do their dirty work against India
Now we know the the chinese plans, alliances and all the jazz
Why don't the Pakistan army want in on the plan?
They loved the military side of it(but to reach its apex China is moving towards economic control first to make Pakistani economically stronger but under “its” control- they are control freaks if we haven't realised it yet)
but now its going towards economy
Pakistani economy is controlled by Pak army when China enters the market they are looking for “control” to keep Pakistan in check, the taxes may go to the GOP but the control of these businesses would be Chinese not Pak army so not cut of the business either (they are making special economic zones so money out of brecruecy is also off-limits)
this is making Pak army nervous not only are they losing sovereignty by giving up their neck to China(their companies they can move out whenever they want to if things get out of hand so it gives them unprecedented stratigic importance in Pakistani affairs ), control of economy, lack of money making oppurtinities all of these things means less control by the army and more by China
https://www.sundayguardianlive.com/news/pro-us-pak-ghq-navy-officers-delay-cpec-projects-china-livid (I know this is different to what I am talking about but this is there that all is not kumba ya between Chinese and Pak military)
Army is stuck between rock and a hard place
They don't like China but they need it to counter India, this peace initiative is a desperate attempt to keep their power
After peace with india they can still find some way to exist and dominate but China is a national security threat and a threat to thier economic interests/ domination since this will go to China
They are choosing peace with India to keep themselves in power instead of the Chinese but if India refuse they have no choice but to go to China for better or for worse (this refusal is also bad for India they'll leave themselves open to 2 militarily powerful hostile countries with territorial disputes)
This is why this peace is serious for Army
Now a terrorist attack is possible during this process (if it starts that is)
Corruption by the Chinese to convince a mid level officer to coordinate a terrorist attack in India through its sleeper cells in India
A mid level officer (they are nationlist and conservitive) to stop this treachery of compromising kashmir can coordinate a plan on his own through his contacts with pak terrorist assets
Can also look at Mamoons post on discontent within army against Bajwa all of these things can impact this process
SO anything can happen but both should try for Peace especially India you are catching Pakistan in a bad spot make the full use of it
If its not used and is spent on jingoism than India will also suffer by a chinese controlled millitarically strong, economically decent pakistan on its border on top of a China in the north
This is a BAD combo for India so both India and Pakistan should try HARD to take advantage of this unprecedented situation
Peace deal NOW is important for both India and Pakistan (for varying reasons)
That's why I am pretty sure the first terror stops than talks begin is more of a talking point than genuine “policy” or it's a policy that is flexible enough to change if they see the seriousness of the initiative by Pak side if not then GOI is thick to say the least (but I am 99% its not ‘policy” but a tactic)…
