UK General Election. Don't be surprised if Theresa May's gamble fails

[Robert]

Shot in the dark / prediction time? (Seats)

Tories: 375
Labour: 205
SNP: 45
Lib Dems: 3
Greens: 2
Others: 20
UKIP: 0

Which Lib Dems do you think will lose their seats? Clegg might, Olney might, but I can see them making gains in Cornwall.

 

[James]

Which Lib Dems do you think will lose their seats? Clegg might, Olney might, but I can see them making gains in Cornwall.

Clegg and Mulholland for sure. Leeds and Sheffield will almost certainly go blanket Corbyn due to a large student vote.

Carmichael, Olney and Brake live on very slim majorities.

Only Mark Williams and Tiger Tim are completely safe in my opinion.

 

[s28]

Labour polling at 39% in England now

 

[s28]

Celeb endorsements keep coming for Corbyn

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The legislation set out by <a href="https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn">@jeremycorbyn</a> is everything we need to believe in. It's time to pull together and vote. Stop the madness #</p>— Sam Womack (@Sam_Womack) <a href="https://twitter.com/Sam_Womack/status/865350378044391424">18 May 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[s28]

Lowkey brilliant here

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/9dPzDqNvPUU" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[s28]

Jamie Oliver destroys May on Free School Meals

<blockquote class="twitter-video" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Food campaigner and <a href="https://twitter.com/Channel4">@Channel4</a> presenter <a href="https://twitter.com/jamieoliver">@jamieoliver</a> expresses his disappointment at the Tory plan to scrap free school lunches for infants <a href="https://t.co/xY3yTtgqgm">pic.twitter.com/xY3yTtgqgm</a></p>— Channel 4 News (@Channel4News) <a href="https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/865607997669515264">19 May 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[s28]

This kid seen off Theresa May today

<blockquote class="twitter-video" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Hasnain Nawaz, 9, tells <a href="https://twitter.com/itvnews">@ITVNews</a> why he asked <a href="https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn">@JeremyCorbyn</a "What does strong and stable leadership mean?" <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/GE2017?src=hash">#GE2017</a> <a href="https://t.co/sTJkw6e79C">https://t.co/sTJkw6e79C</a> <a href="https://t.co/qwZYneFcAG">pic.twitter.com/qwZYneFcAG</a></p>— ITV News (@itvnews) <a href="https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/865619333208297472">19 May 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[s28]

A lot of similar stuff being tweeted

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Someone wondered this morning whether the Tories could be trying to throw the election because they've realised that doing Brexit is v hard</p>— Graham Linehan (@Glinner) <a href="https://twitter.com/Glinner/status/865578519895588864">19 May 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Robert]

I was out knocking on doors with my local Lib Dem candidate yesterday. Of those we spoke to there was a 4:1 LD: Tory ratio.

The local Tory MP has built up a lot of bad will in a hurry through scandal. That could get us over the line as he appears to have lost significant support.

 

[James]

The Conservative manifesto is turning out to be an omnishambles.

Very clever work from Corbyn's inner circle to brand the Tory social care policy the "Dementia Tax" on the back of Dementia Awareness Week. Of course it's not a Dementia Tax as such, but the term is reaching far & wide and people are really buying into it.

This is the kind of heart-engaging, slightly politically-dirty activism that Labour should have been going for much earlier in Corbyn's tenure. It would have helped Labour a great deal in the polls.

 

[s28]

I was out canvassing over the weekend also. In a Tory held marginal. It was a nice smart well-heeled area with great views across Shropshire hills. Small sample size but I didn't meet anyone saying they will vote Tory. Met a Lib Dem turning Labour. One person saying they thought Corbyn would be better negotiating Brexit than May. A small businessman saying he would pay higher taxes but he'd vote Labour. People worried about fox hunting. I was told by experienced canvassers that the sitting Tory MP seemed to be hardly campaigning whether through complacency or having given up I can't say. Added to the turnaround in the polls after the #DementiaTax it all looks good for a more competitive election than was first thought.

 

[Robert]

I was out canvassing over the weekend also.

Respect. Hopefully we can do something to reduce the Tory score by one each.

This Tory budget is looking more and more counterproductive for them. Did they think people would keep accepting more and more pain forever? Thatcher, Major and Cameron were really good at making policies which would engage their core vote, but May seems to have blown her own foot off.

 

[Markhor]

Ross Campbell from the Institute of Chartered Accountants:

He suggested that extra investment in infrastructure projects was needed “to spearhead the UK's economic reboot in a post-Brexit landscape”.

Yet capital spending has fallen by £1.4bn to £55.9bn for 2016-17 under May's government.

This obsession with lowering the deficit means politics has trumped economics. Italy has a lower deficit than us, what does that tell you ? Deficits obviously must be managed, but the economic debate needs to also focus on growth.

 

[Yossarian]

Tories have started scoring own goals in the last few days.

Of all the various age groups, pensioners usually have the highest turnout at election time. They also tend to be conservative (with a small 'c') and thus are usually more inclined to vote Tory.

This week the Tories have scared them twice over. First with the proposal to axe the 'Triple Lock' pension guarantee, and then the Dementia Tax proposal.

If pensioners start switching away from voting Tory (even if it's simply by staying home and not voting), May's gamble could backfire.

 

[KingKhanWC]

Momentum is with Labour and Corbyn. Im just not sure there is enough time to close the gap enough. If election day was 5/6 weeks away, I truly believe both parties would be neck and neck.

 

[Yossarian]

The Conservative manifesto is turning out to be an omnishambles.

Very clever work from Corbyn's inner circle to brand the Tory social care policy the "Dementia Tax" on the back of Dementia Awareness Week. Of course it's not a Dementia Tax as such, but the term is reaching far & wide and people are really buying into it.

This is the kind of heart-engaging, slightly politically-dirty activism that Labour should have been going for much earlier in Corbyn's tenure. It would have helped Labour a great deal in the polls.

Did you watch the Andrw Marr Show this morning? Damian Green, the Work and Pensions Secretary, was involved in a major accident live on air, in the form of a car-crash interview.

Apart from looking clueless when asked questions about the lack of any financial details in the Tory manifesto, when seated on the sofa next to John McDonnell at the end of the program (McDonnell had also been interviewed by Marr earlier), Green tried going on the attack by pointing his finger at McDonnell and shouting "'You don't understand capitalism!'.

McDonnell replied back with "You were an associate director in the water industry," (which Green admitted) "And you made quite a profit out of it. £18 billion of profits paid out to shareholders during your period, and we're going to take that money and instead of using it for dividends for shareholders - rich people - we're going to use that to cover the costs."

Damian Green was left floundering and jabbering like a demented Trump. Here he was defending the robbing of pensioners whilst basically being told that Tory policies benefited him personally at the cost of British taxpayers - which he could not deny.

No wonder Theresa May refuses to debate Corbyn or other party leaders. Without a prepared script to hide behind, she knows she will get hammered.

 

[Yossarian]

Momentum is with Labour and Corbyn. Im just not sure there is enough time to close the gap enough. If election day was 5/6 weeks away, I truly believe both parties would be neck and neck.

I wouldn't be upset if Tories still won (which I expect them to do). But only if their majority was cut, or worse, having to rely upon the backing of the Ulster Unionists. Imagine May, Boris and David Davis negotiating Brexit, and then having to take responsibility for the outcome and aftermath of Brexit.

 

[s28]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">So I'm hearing lots of feedback from the doorstep on formerly Tory voting pensioners switching to Labour. Let me hear your stories <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/ge2017?src=hash">#ge2017</a></p>— John Prescott (@johnprescott) <a href="https://twitter.com/johnprescott/status/866381719666032640">21 May 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[s28]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">FT UK: Senior Tories were kept in the dark over May's dementia tax <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/tomorrowspaperstoday?src=hash">#tomorrowspaperstoday</a> <a href="https://t.co/GwhHlZG6Oq">pic.twitter.com/GwhHlZG6Oq</a></p>— Neil Henderson (@hendopolis) <a href="https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/866392474415226885">21 May 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[s28]

<blockquote class="twitter-video" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Listen to the professionals: Every single person planning to vote Conservative needs to see this. <a href="https://t.co/zNdZ4wPHPB">pic.twitter.com/zNdZ4wPHPB</a></p>— Rachael (@Rachael_Swindon) <a href="https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/866548764365991936">22 May 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Robert]

I wouldn't be upset if Tories still won (which I expect them to do). But only if their majority was cut, or worse, having to rely upon the backing of the Ulster Unionists. Imagine May, Boris and David Davis negotiating Brexit, and then having to take responsibility for the outcome and aftermath of Brexit.

In the wake of Brexit I expect Sinn Fein to gain MPs so there may not be much support from that sector.

I foresee Irish unification in a decade, so the Six Counties can benefit from EU membership.

 

[Yossarian]

Just watched another car crash. This time Andrew Neil interviewing Theresa May. Even though I still felt that Andrew Neil was a bit too easy on her, nevertheless, she was hopeless and floundering, and attempting to divert the topic to anything other than the questions posed to her.

Theresa May must be petrified at the mere thought of her upcoming interview with Jeremy Paxman. I'm betting that the Tories are at this very minute pulling every string imaginable to find ways of having Paxman replaced. Or failing that, incapacitated. Paxman needs to get a food taster for the next week or so, someone to check his food before Paxman eats it.

 

[Robert]

Just watched another car crash. This time Andrew Neil interviewing Theresa May. Even though I still felt that Andrew Neil was a bit too easy on her, nevertheless, she was hopeless and floundering, and attempting to divert the topic to anything other than the questions posed to her.

Theresa May must be petrified at the mere thought of her upcoming interview with Jeremy Paxman. I'm betting that the Tories are at this very minute pulling every string imaginable to find ways of having Paxman replaced. Or failing that, incapacitated. Paxman needs to get a food taster for the next week or so, someone to check his food before Paxman eats it.

Paxo will expose Corbyn at the same time. Might work out well for Farron......

 

[Yossarian]

Paxo will expose Corbyn at the same time. Might work out well for Farron......

Sure. But the difference is that Theresa May's whole pitch is of 'strong and stable' leadership.

After Andrew Neil listed the numerous promises May has made in the past, which she has either broken, or which turned out to be false, or unachievable, or she U-turned on, both as Home Secretary and as PM, he asked her why should the public believe her and trust her this time? He posed the question a number of times and each time she desperately tried changing the subject instead of responding to the question.

Corbyn has no such baggage to speak of. The worst that Corbyn can be challenged on is Trident, support for the Palestinian cause, and not specifically condemning the IRA but instead condemning all bombings generally, both from the Unionists side as well as the Republicans side.

Of the two, Theresa May has far more to fear from being interviewed by Paxman. May may be good at reading prepared speeches to a carefully selected Tory leaning audience whilst standing behind a podium, but she appears to be totally out of her depth when forced to answer questions directly, either in a press conference, during a Q&A session or in one-to-one interviews.

Corbyn appears far more relaxed, and gives the impression of being honest, in similar situations.

Akin to a robot faced with a situation it's not programmed for, versus a kindly old, but eccentric, uncle.

 

[s28]

Theresa May interview with Andrew Neil obviously didn't go too well



https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2017/05/the-art-of-negotiation/

 

[s28]

Craig Murray former UK Ambassador spot on here in his analysis of her body language

 

[s28]

Someone who like myself has felt enthused enough to go out campaigning and door-knocking for the first time in their life

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Been watching the election kerfuffle? Just starting to get a tiny thrilling feeling in your gut that something might be shifting? Listen up!</p>— Jack Shenker (@hackneylad) <a href="https://twitter.com/hackneylad/status/866623113404010498">22 May 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Yossarian]

The Manchester blast changes everything.

 

[ElRaja]

guess whose back, back again, the tories back, tell a friend, lols. good to see all those familiar old names still posting.

apparently some communists came to my house and convinced my dad to vote labour. my moms always been a red anyway, now my dad too :/ known i shouldnt have left the house.

oh well, guess the tori strategy of doing nothing and letting corbyn score own goals hasnt worked too well. still think itll be alright on the night.

 

[s28]

Good video from US perspective on how Corbyn now has momentum behind him

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/65LaGMeIxUI" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[James]

When it comes down to it I would still say the smart money is on a Tory win, particularly with everyone worried about more attacks and not wanting a change of government.

 

[Yossarian]

Good video from US perspective on how Corbyn now has momentum behind him

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/65LaGMeIxUI" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

When it comes down to it I would still say the smart money is on a Tory win, particularly with everyone worried about more attacks and not wanting a change of government.

Tories were always guaranteed to win. The only question was by how big a margin.

Prior to the bomb attack, Theresa May's robotic slogan 'Strong and Stable Leadership' was starting to look a bit thin due to the disastrous manner in which Theresa May was performing every time she was faced with direct questions during interviews. It appeared as if Labour were edging closer, and could deny the Tories the massive victory everyone expected, leaving the Tories with roughly a similar sized majority as they have now.

But the Manchester bomb attacks has changed all that. It allows Theresa May to give the impression of being a leader again, thereby undoing the damage she had done with her interviews.

So (sadly) again looking like a substantial Tory majority is on the cards.

 

[s28]

Hello

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Westminster voting intention:<br><br>CON: 43% (-1)<br>LAB: 38% (+3)<br>LDEM: 10% (+1)<br>UKIP: 4% (+1)<br><br>(via <a href="https://twitter.com/YouGov">@YouGov</a> / 24 - 25 May)</p>— Britain Elects (@britainelects) <a href="https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/867848021182173185">25 May 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Robert]

[MENTION=4930]Yossarian[/MENTION], I wonder if the Manchester atrocity will drive the Blukippers away from the Tories and back to UKIP, splitting the Tory vote in some marginals.

We might be heading for a hung Parliament with the SDP holding the balance of power.

 

[Yossarian]

[MENTION=4930]Yossarian[/MENTION], I wonder if the Manchester atrocity will drive the Blukippers away from the Tories and back to UKIP, splitting the Tory vote in some marginals.

We might be heading for a hung Parliament with the SDP holding the balance of power.

Sure, some BluKippers who had abandoned UKIP will now return to UKIP due to the bombs. But the same will be true of the Labour Brexiteers who will do what they did during Brexit and side with UKIP.

 

[James]

I don't think UKIP will pick up many votes at all. With Farage at the helm, his bluntness and charisma meant that they had something about them, but people don't take them seriously anymore.

It will be a straight shootout between Labour and the Tories - the much larger vote share that both parties are commanding in the polls compared to 2015 suggests this.

If we look at the latest poll above from s28, more than 80% of people are set to vote Labour or Tory, compared to barely 60% in 2015.

 

[s28]

The Establishment have got their knickers in a right twist after this latest poll

Coming out with all sorts of smears to try to con the voters into hating Corbyn

One standard thing they bring up is his supposed 'support for the IRA'

Corbyn did not support the IRA he talked to the political wing of the Irish Republican movement Sinn Fein

It turns out now that as part of his peace efforts he also interacted with Loyalists

https://skwawkbox.org/2017/05/25/world-exclusive-corbyn-mowlams-envoy-to-ira-and-loyalists/

 

[IMMY69]

This Election is getting extremely interesting now.

I'm getting disillusioned with the Tories.

 

[s28]

There is a crowdfund to put up anti-Theresa ads here

https://thepeoplesassembly.nationbu...tm_medium=email&utm_source=thepeoplesassembly

 

[s28]

Corbyn twitterati are absolutely killing it in this election campaign

<blockquote class="twitter-video" data-lang="en"><p lang="und" dir="ltr"><a href="https://t.co/J4MHeN2UCr">pic.twitter.com/J4MHeN2UCr</a></p>— Phil (@PhilEFC) <a href="https://twitter.com/PhilEFC/status/867859800574525441">May 25, 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Yossarian]

Was unable to watch Jeremy Corbyn's interview with Andrew Neil. However, I've been told that Corbyn performed significantly better than Theresa May when she was interviewed by Andrew Neil.

Anyone watched both interviews and thus is able to give a comparison? [MENTION=7774]Robert[/MENTION] ?

 

[s28]

Afraid I missed it as well.

I expect the big one will be when they are on same programme being grilled consecutively (BBC Question Time on Friday June 2nd for example). May is terrible live, whilst Corbyn as a people person and shaped by the white heat of the furnace of 3 campaigns in 3 years is becoming a polished and consummate performer whilst retaining the integrity and honesty he has had throughout 30+ years of backbench political activism

 

[s28]

I maintained from the outset that the polls were wrong and I still do not trust them. It's very odd that Yougov (Tory run) went from the most pessimistic prior to the calling of the Election (24% lead for CON over LAB) to the most optimistic now (only a 5% lead for CON over LAB)

I also feel they don't adequately account for the youth vote which will have been mobilised by EU Ref and the current Register to Vote campaign in addition to LAB pledge on tuition fees

Finally Momentum are hitting the streets in numbers this weekend and the LAB ground game is going to be much stronger than the CON one

 

[s28]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Looking to discredit Corbyn’s speech about terrorism? Here’s a handy guide to selective quoting for Tories and others. <a href="https://t.co/rKJDxjAHBD">pic.twitter.com/rKJDxjAHBD</a></p>— David Schneider (@davidschneider) <a href="https://twitter.com/davidschneider/status/868243858899034112">26 May 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Junaids]

Urgent Exit Required.

 

[Robert]

Was unable to watch Jeremy Corbyn's interview with Andrew Neil. However, I've been told that Corbyn performed significantly better than Theresa May when she was interviewed by Andrew Neil.

Anyone watched both interviews and thus is able to give a comparison? [MENTION=7774]Robert[/MENTION] ?

Afraid I didn't watch. But Corbyn seems to have had some media training. He is not getting snappy and irritable any more, he is developing a Zen-like state when questioned. Also, he looks much smarter than a year ago.

 

[irfan]

Afraid I didn't watch. But Corbyn seems to have had some media training. He is not getting snappy and irritable any more, he is developing a Zen-like state when questioned. Also, he looks much smarter than a year ago.

I watched it and although admittedly I am somewhat slightly biased in favour of Corbyn, I would say he did better than May. He answered the questions, did not use any trite slogans and remained calm; his final parting remark to Andrew Neil was good. However, I do not think he did as well as some Corbyn supporters are saying as he stumbled over govt borrowing requirements and I feel he did not address the foreign policy link to terror as fully as he could have.
Way too much time (nearly half of interview) was spent on probing his links to Sinn Fein/IRA and what happened thirty years ago but that was the fault of the interviewer.

 

[Adil_94]

Corbyn has been performing a lot smoother in the last few weeks but i still think the negative stigma hangs over his head after last few years of negative coverage of him.

I wouldnt be surprised if Corbyn bettered Milibands performance. But i still think Tories will get a majority.

 

[Yossarian]

Corbyn has been performing a lot smoother in the last few weeks but i still think the negative stigma hangs over his head after last few years of negative coverage of him.

I wouldnt be surprised if Corbyn bettered Milibands performance. But i still think Tories will get a majority.

That was never in doubt. But everyone was predicting a Labour wipeout (which may still happen, but is looking less likely).

Hence the thread and the OP questioning that asummption.

 

[Robert]

Corbyn has been performing a lot smoother in the last few weeks but i still think the negative stigma hangs over his head after last few years of negative coverage of him.

I don't think said negative coverage has had much effect. Young voters love him, but to the majority of older voters he is not credible.

We are presented with two rotten choices really - Tories who look competent but who are out of ideas and offer only more hardship, or Labour who offer the Moon but haven't done their sums properly and in any event don't have the competence to deliver.

Off to help my Lib Dem candidate on the doorsteps.....

 

[Yossarian]

I just wish to blow my own trumpet, and highlight a couple of points from the OP.

I'm going to go against the general consensus and play the Devil's advocate:

[.....]

Yes, Theresa May and the Tories will win. But not by the massive margins forecast, especially if the polls start to narrow. (Tories need a lead of around 9% ahead of Labour in the polls just to maintain their current 10 or so majority!)

And all of that if nothing out of the ordinary takes place in the next 6 weeks (such as Trump bombing someone and starting a war that the UK public doesn't agree with, but Theresa May gives backing to Trump nevertheless)

Anyway, that my 'Devil's Advocate' argument. Now give reasons why you disagree with the above analysis.

Also, unfortunately, and regretably, the OP did use the word 'bombing' in reference to the last few weeks of the campaign. But not in my wildest nightmares did I think it was to be Isis murdering innocents in the UK, but rather Trump doing something stupid.

In hindsight, I wish I hadn't added that bit at the end of the OP.

 

[Adil_94]

[MENTION=7774]Robert[/MENTION] i think Lib Dems policy on refugees and immigration will.be seen as too soft in this current climate. Their manifesto says i think they would accept 50,000 Syrian refugees which i think is political suicide now esp after the Manchester attack

 

[shaz619]

That was never in doubt. But everyone was predicting a Labour wipeout (which may still happen, but is looking less likely).

Hence the thread and the OP questioning that asummption.

I thought you changed your prediction after the attacks, do you still think Labour will do decently?

 

[Markhor]

I watched it and although admittedly I am somewhat slightly biased in favour of Corbyn, I would say he did better than May. He answered the questions, did not use any trite slogans and remained calm; his final parting remark to Andrew Neil was good. However, I do not think he did as well as some Corbyn supporters are saying as he stumbled over govt borrowing requirements and I feel he did not address the foreign policy link to terror as fully as he could have.
Way too much time (nearly half of interview) was spent on probing his links to Sinn Fein/IRA and what happened thirty years ago but that was the fault of the interviewer.

I thought Corbyn handled the foreign policy questions well, he got the right balance between criticising western foreign policy without coming across as if he was apologising for terror - he did well to reference the MI5 heads, Boris Johnson etc to support his argument. But he was on weaker ground on the IRA.

There wasn't enough time given for the economic issues, as Neil went on and on about the IRA.

 

[Yossarian]

I thought you changed your prediction after the attacks, do you still think Labour will do decently?

The Tories instead of capitalising on that, by showing their credentials as a "Strong and Stable Leadership" government running the country in a time of crisis (and May's appearances on the world stage with the Nato and G8 Summits), the Tories seem to be blowing it.

Even attacking Corbyn's speech on foreign policy (which the Tories could have manipulated to show Corbyn in a bad light) has backfired. Both Boris Johnson and Michael Fallon (the Defence Secretary ) lambasted Corbyn for linking Britains foreign policy to the rise in terrorism in the UK, not realising that he was repeating more or less the exact comments made by Boris Johnson himself after the London bombings. Talk about own goals!

A week is a long time in politics. Two weeks ago, Tories had a lead of around 20%. Now the lead is down to around 10- 12% (on average, discounting the 5% in the Youguv poll). With almost 2 weeks still to go, anything could still happen. Tories rebounding and increasing their lead again, or Labour continuing to close the gap.

My prediction? (Unless something out of the ordinary occurs): Tories winning with a small overall majority or even a hung Parliament. ie The Tories became overconfident and Theresa May's gamble fails.

 

[shaz619]

The Tories instead of capitalising on that, by showing their credentials as a "Strong and Stable Leadership" government running the country in a time of crisis (and May's appearances on the world stage with the Nato and G8 Summits), the Tories seem to be blowing it.

Even attacking Corbyn's speech on foreign policy (which the Tories could have manipulated to show Corbyn in a bad light) has backfired. Both Boris Johnson and Michael Fallon (the Defence Secretary ) lambasted Corbyn for linking Britains foreign policy to the rise in terrorism in the UK, not realising that he was repeating more or less the exact comments made by Boris Johnson himself after the London bombings. Talk about own goals!

A week is a long time in politics. Two weeks ago, Tories had a lead of around 20%. Now the lead is down to around 10- 12% (on average, discounting the 5% in the Youguv poll). With almost 2 weeks still to go, anything could still happen. Tories rebounding and increasing their lead again, or Labour continuing to close the gap.

My prediction? (Unless something out of the ordinary occurs): Tories winning with a small overall majority or even a hung Parliament. ie The Tories became overconfident and Theresa May's gamble fails.

If Cobyn pulls off the big upset win it will be bigger then Ali taking out George Foreman, I hope he wins; in these tough times am of the opinion that he will give our nation a great deal of hope. I made my little sister register few weeks back and she will voting Labour as well.

The coming week is huge, it will give us a clear indication of the gen elections outcome. What I've found shocking is that the Tories have not even bothered to appease the youth vote, they are relying mostly on corporate Britain, old people and clueless working class Nigels who want to take their country back

 

[James]

Corbyn's campaign strategy is clearly to pump out inventive and popular policies to recover in the polls, and then after winning power they will work out what they can actually afford & then prioritise.

At least they have a strategy though. Not sure what the Tories have been smoking - Theresa May had a very easy free year in power. I expected more than this from her.

Tories still likely winners, but looks like a very competitive election at the moment. The small parties are all looking rather useless and impotent at the moment, which has helped Labour - the Lib Dems and UKIP in particular are offering absolutely nothing.

Labour performing way above expectations. They have all of the momentum and might even sneak a win.

 

[Yossarian]

Corbyn's campaign strategy is clearly to pump out inventive and popular policies to recover in the polls, and then after winning power they will work out what they can actually afford & then prioritise.

At least they have a strategy though. Not sure what the Tories have been smoking - Theresa May had a very easy free year in power. I expected more than this from her.

Tories still likely winners, but looks like a very competitive election at the moment. The small parties are all looking rather useless and impotent at the moment, which has helped Labour - the Lib Dems and UKIP in particular are offering absolutely nothing.

Labour performing way above expectations. They have all of the momentum and might even sneak a win.

I doubt they'll be able to do that.

Currently Tories have 330 MP's and Labour 229. SNP will likely keep most of their seats (give or take one or two), same for the Liberal Democrats and the other smaller parties combined.

That means that Labour will need to take 50 or so seats from the Tories to win. Taking out the safe Tory seats (where even a dog with a Tory tag will get elected) leaves Labour needing to wipe out the Tories not just from the marginal seats, but also take many of the seats where the Tories had a healthy majority in 2015.

So the best outcome that Labour can hope for is a reduced Tory majority or the Tories falling just short of a majority and thus relying upon the Unionist parties.

 

[s28]

<blockquote class="twitter-video" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">WATCH THIS!!!!!!!! Just watch it!!!!' <a href="https://t.co/WfOYVStNV0">pic.twitter.com/WfOYVStNV0</a></p>— ARTIST TAXI DRIVER (@chunkymark) <a href="https://twitter.com/chunkymark/status/868229195763200000">26 May 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[s28]

I am told on ConservativeHome almost every article is Tories panicking

 

[James]

The Tories have had their worst electoral campaign since William Hague.

 

[Robert]

[MENTION=7774]Robert[/MENTION] i think Lib Dems policy on refugees and immigration will.be seen as too soft in this current climate. Their manifesto says i think they would accept 50,000 Syrian refugees which i think is political suicide now esp after the Manchester attack

Yeah, it says that. We are on 8-10% anyway. Might as well be true to our internationalist principles. I think we can take three or four seats back off the Tories in my county.

I knocked on a lot of doors today and helped stuff 9000 envelopes. Lib Dem support seems to be holding up here. Only met one hardcore Tory. I think I talked a couple of Labour-leaners into voting for us. "Vote Labour, get Tory" is the mantra.

 

[James]

The most recent polls are beginning to be surmised by @britainelects.

ComRes and Opinionum still have the Tories at 45% share. Quite surprised by this.

 

[s28]

They include in built Tory bias now due to adjustments to allow for GE2015 'shy Tory' effect

 

[s28]

<blockquote class="twitter-video" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The most important part of Jeremy Corbyn's interview. A real choice at this election: Another future is possible. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/VoteLabour?src=hash">#VoteLabour</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/GE2107?src=hash">#GE2107</a> <a href="https://t.co/iDg51POH0z">pic.twitter.com/iDg51POH0z</a></p>— EL4C (@EL4JC) <a href="https://twitter.com/EL4JC/status/868383998363537408">27 May 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[s28]

3 polls since Manchester and the gap is 5-7%

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Westminster voting intention:<br><br>CON: 44% (-2)<br>LAB: 38% (+4)<br>LDEM: 7% (-)<br>UKIP: 5% (-2)<br><br>(via <a href="https://twitter.com/ORB_Int">@ORB_Int</a> / 24 - 25 May)</p>— Britain Elects (@britainelects) <a href="https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/868560077413900288">27 May 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Yossarian]

3 polls since Manchester and the gap is 5-7%

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Westminster voting intention:<br><br>CON: 44% (-2)<br>LAB: 38% (+4)<br>LDEM: 7% (-)<br>UKIP: 5% (-2)<br><br>(via <a href="https://twitter.com/ORB_Int">@ORB_Int</a> / 24 - 25 May)</p>— Britain Elects (@britainelects) <a href="https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/868560077413900288">27 May 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Tories need a lead of around 7% just to maintain their current majority of 12. So anything less and Theresa May's in deep trouble, and that's from within her own party! The Tory's are ruthless when it comes to getting ridding of a leader that's not performing. Look what they did even to Thatcher once she lost her mojo.

 

[Robert]

Tories need a lead of around 7% just to maintain their current majority of 12. So anything less and Theresa May's in deep trouble, and that's from within her own party! The Tory's are ruthless when it comes to getting ridding of a leader that's not performing. Look what they did even to Thatcher once she lost her mojo.

If there is a hung Parliament, there will be an immediate Tory leadership challenge. Their ruthlessness is their strength and they do not forgive failure like Labour do. I don't know who could unite them though - maybe Boris?

Reads as unlikely. Labour had a 3% lead in the polls in 2015 and still lost. There is no indication that they can win Scotland back. I think the Tories will get a majority of fifty.

 

[Yossarian]

If Labour don't put Diane Abbott in solitary confinement until the election is over then regardless of how well Labour's policies might be received by the electorate, regardless of how well Jeremy Corbyn does, Labour is going to be annihilated.

That woman is a walking disaster for the Labour party. I was cringing and almost had to hide behind the sofa watching her being interviewed on The Andrew Marr show this morning. She single handedly undid all the good work Corbyn has been doing in the last couple of weeks.

 

[s28]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Gloomy Tory canvasser in Ealing & Acton writes off their chances of regaining seat from Labour. Blames dementia tax and negative campaign.</p>— Kevin Schofield (@PolhomeEditor) <a href="https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/868527663065034753">27 May 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Markhor]

Paul Nuttal calling for a returm to waterboarding and internment in this BBC interview.

Andrew Neil rightly stating there has never been a ticking time bomb scenario where torture has been needed to prevent terror attacks.

The Senate Intelligence Committee and countless experts have discounted the idea that torture works but Paul Nuttall thinks its a good idea.

 

[ElRaja]

Paul Nuttal calling for a returm to waterboarding and internment in this BBC interview.

Andrew Neil rightly stating there has never been a ticking time bomb scenario where torture has been needed to prevent terror attacks.

The Senate Intelligence Committee and countless experts have discounted the idea that torture works but Paul Nuttall thinks its a good idea.

nothing he could say could reduce ukips polling any further, they served their purpose and are frantically looking for something to cling on to ideologically, even if its torture, lol.

 

[Markhor]

May and Corbyn will be doing their live Q&A at 8:30 on Channel 4/Sky News.

May does not have the communicative skills and ease that Cameron had in front of a live audience. He was well versed with the live Q&A format whereas May has looked to hide from the public at every turn.

Corbyn will definitely get pressed on the IRA.

Should be fascinating viewing, even if its not a head-to-head TV debate.

 

[Markhor]

nothing he could say could reduce ukips polling any further, they served their purpose and are frantically looking for something to cling on to ideologically, even if its torture, lol.

After the referendum, the Tories have parked their tanks on UKIP's lawn and succeeded in shoring up the right-wing vote.

I don't see UKIP reaching the heights of 2015 again where they got 3.9 million votes. Plus with FPTP voting system its extremely hard for smaller parties to break through.

Reading the polls it seems, minus Scotland, we're back to the two party system. The Lib Dem resurgence on the back of the 48% hasn't materialised and the Leave voters are largely hitching their wagon to May not UKIP.

Anyway that was a waste of half an hour - bring on the main event, and good that you're back here to post on it !

 

[KingKhanWC]

May and Corbyn will be doing their live Q&A at 8:30 on Channel 4/Sky News.

May does not have the communicative skills and ease that Cameron had in front of a live audience. He was well versed with the live Q&A format whereas May has looked to hide from the public at every turn.

Corbyn will definitely get pressed on the IRA.

Should be fascinating viewing, even if its not a head-to-head TV debate.

Is this tonight?

 

[shaz619]

Is this tonight?

Yes

http://news.sky.com/watch-live

 

[shaz619]

[MENTION=43583]KingKhanWC[/MENTION] actually watch it at this link Channel 4

https://tvplayer.com/watch/channel4

The fat ugly bloke on Sky is the most moronic and toxic presenter on national TV these days

 

[KingKhanWC]

[MENTION=46929]shaz619[/MENTION] Thanks and I prefer Channel 4 for the same reason.

 

[shaz619]

Actually you can watch it at the Sky Link that fat bloke is gone now thank god

 

[ElRaja]

After the referendum, the Tories have parked their tanks on UKIP's lawn and succeeded in shoring up the right-wing vote.

I don't see UKIP reaching the heights of 2015 again where they got 3.9 million votes. Plus with FPTP voting system its extremely hard for smaller parties to break through.

Reading the polls it seems, minus Scotland, we're back to the two party system. The Lib Dem resurgence on the back of the 48% hasn't materialised and the Leave voters are largely hitching their wagon to May not UKIP.

Anyway that was a waste of half an hour - bring on the main event, and good that you're back here to post on it !

tbh i think theresa may was always a closet brexiter, and she toed the party line until events unfolded in her advantage.

i see so many people who just think of voting lib dem as a wasted vote, unless u reach a threshold where victory is at least imaginable, you will never get that popular upsurge.

there were two types of brexiters, xenophobic brexiters, and non xenophobic brexiters, the former likely to be the only ukip voters left now, to whom policies such as water boarding and capital punishment may appeal. the latter would have no real problem going back to the tories.