UK General Election. Don't be surprised if Theresa May's gamble fails

[Musakhel]

Never voted before, not even sure if I am registered to vote.

 

[shaz619]

I thought, in general overall, the grilling by the audience was very tame, almost non-existant. Hence although Corbyn did better, Theresa May didn't completely fall apart which would have been the case had she been challenged more and put under pressure. She was, in essence, allowed to do a Party Political Broadcast with her responses.

Disappointed with the whole program overall. Makes me wonder if the audience members were too carefully chosen such that none were the aggressive type in their questioning.

I felt the same way as you, the immediate thought which came to my mind was that May should pick on someone her own size and one of the audience members did call her out on that. But then again, it's a controlled environment and we don't know for sure how the individuals were picked.

 

[shaz619]

[MENTION=3474]TalhaSyed[/MENTION]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...ill-help-jeremy-corbyn-become-prime-minister/

 

[KingKhanWC]

Best to maximise our time moving forward to create a safety net which would take care of our family's

Gold. It's a shame Namak Halal doesn't post here anyone. Not only was he a brilliant poster but he knew this many years ago and invested in gold. I have a lot of friends who also invested in Gold around a decade ago, before the 2008 crash and made an absolute killing. Unlike paper money you cannot just create gold so it's value will always remain. Gaddafi also wanted to introduce Gold Dinar's as currency, he also knew the paper money bubble was going to burst sooner or later. Our previous PM Gordon Brown sold out the UK's gold reserves for some foolish reason or more likely it was a favour. But we dont know when this could happen, maybe tommorow maybe in 15, 20 years.

 

[shaz619]

Gold. It's a shame Namak Halal doesn't post here anyone. Not only was he a brilliant poster but he knew this many years ago and invested in gold. I have a lot of friends who also invested in Gold around a decade ago, before the 2008 crash and made an absolute killing. Unlike paper money you cannot just create gold so it's value will always remain. Gaddafi also wanted to introduce Gold Dinar's as currency, he also knew the paper money bubble was going to burst sooner or later. Our previous PM Gordon Brown sold out the UK's gold reserves for some foolish reason or more likely it was a favour. But we dont know when this could happen, maybe tommorow maybe in 15, 20 years.

Which gold items have you invested in KingKhan, I may consider making small investments in it once I find a job soon and have money which I can put towards my savings. It's the one thing which may depreciates but not as much compared to other items and never really loses value

 

[KingKhanWC]

Which gold items have you invested in KingKhan, I may consider making small investments in it once I find a job soon and have money which I can put towards my savings. It's the one thing which may depreciates but not as much compared to other items and never really loses value

Bullion, coins etc. It fluctuates but overall it's the most sound investment imo. After the Brexit vote, sterling went down , gold has risen. Even after the strikes on Syria by the US, gold went up. Around 2006/7 Gold was around $630 per ounce and now it's around $1300 per ounce. In the event of a another economic collapse it would sky rocket.

 

[shaz619]

Bullion, coins etc. It fluctuates but overall it's the most sound investment imo. After the Brexit vote, sterling went down , gold has risen. Even after the strikes on Syria by the US, gold went up. Around 2006/7 Gold was around $630 per ounce and now it's around $1300 per ounce. In the event of a another economic collapse it would sky rocket.

True, I also hope to get on the property ladder soon but it will take ages to buy one without a mortgage and am just put off buying something which I do not own; also stems from bad experiences around me and so on. There are some decent 3 bedrooms houses in Brum but a lot of them are in run down areas, beyond the city you might get more value for money but may not like the area

 

[shaz619]

[MENTION=3474]TalhaSyed[/MENTION]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...ill-help-jeremy-corbyn-become-prime-minister/

 

[Yossarian]

Gold. It's a shame Namak Halal doesn't post here anyone. Not only was he a brilliant poster but he knew this many years ago and invested in gold. I have a lot of friends who also invested in Gold around a decade ago, before the 2008 crash and made an absolute killing. Unlike paper money you cannot just create gold so it's value will always remain. Gaddafi also wanted to introduce Gold Dinar's as currency, he also knew the paper money bubble was going to burst sooner or later. Our previous PM Gordon Brown sold out the UK's gold reserves for some foolish reason or more likely it was a favour. But we dont know when this could happen, maybe tommorow maybe in 15, 20 years.

I know someone who lost a fortune, including his house, at the beginning of the 80's because he invested in gold just before it plummeted.

(Apparently, he invested in some sort of scheme that was allowed at the time whereby he only needed to invest 10% of his own money in relation to the value of gold he was buying, ie He was allowed to buy an amount (value) up to 10 times the amount of money he was putting in.

Of course, just as he stood to make a massive profit if the price of gold went up, he also stood to lose a massive amount if the price fell. And it did. He had put his house as collateral to get a loan from the bank which he had then used to finance the gold purchase.

He not only lost the house, but the losses on the gold were such that it took him another 20 years to pay off the debt.

 

[KingKhanWC]

I know someone who lost a fortune, including his house, at the beginning of the 80's because he invested in gold just before it plummeted.

(Apparently, he invested in some sort of scheme that was allowed at the time whereby he only needed to invest 10% of his own money in relation to the value of gold he was buying, ie He was allowed to buy an amount (value) up to 10 times the amount of money he was putting in.

Of course, just as he stood to make a massive profit if the price of gold went up, he also stood to lose a massive amount if the price fell. And it did. He had put his house as collateral to get a loan from the bank which he had then used to finance the gold purchase.

He not only lost the house, but the losses on the gold were such that it took him another 20 years to pay off the debt.

Tragic. Around 1970 they hit an all time low, around $200 and rose dramatically to around $1700 within a decade in 1980. In two years they had a steep fall and then went back down to a low around 2000/01. Since they have been steadily rising with a drop in 2011 but since then the prices have fluctuated and now the trend seems to be on the rise all be it slowly. I guess it's all about timing but at present it's probably a better investment than property esp since interest rates are bound to increase ,most likely next year. I'm not sure what scheme he had but I wouldn't risk the house on any investment. Every investment is a gamble to some extent I suppose.

Not sure what your feelings are but if Corbyn gets elected and with Trump in power any economic collapse in the next fears will be easily blamed on them even though their influence would be limited.

 

[KingKhanWC]

True, I also hope to get on the property ladder soon but it will take ages to buy one without a mortgage and am just put off buying something which I do not own; also stems from bad experiences around me and so on. There are some decent 3 bedrooms houses in Brum but a lot of them are in run down areas, beyond the city you might get more value for money but may not like the area

Property value has been a safe bet in the long term in the UK. Maybe it's paranoia but im dubious esp since interest rates will rise soon and if there is an economic collapse the value of our currency could take a hit. In the end you have to have self confidence and adapt to the environment you face. I would concentrate on spirituality and happiness within as the best investment. Once you are content in life, then you can take a risk for two depending on your circumstances. Otherwise the stress is just not worth it imo.

 

[Adil_94]

a bit of a better showing from May tonight but considering her performances so far that isnt saying much. Some very good questions from the audience to both candidates.

Corbyn has performef better than expected in these debates now the proof will be in the pudding on June 8th i think Labour can increase to 250-260 seats.

My predictions are for a hung parliament or a narrow Tory majority. I dont see May making substansial gains on Camerons 330 2 years ago.

Whatever you want to say about Cameron he at least didnt crumple under pressure when faced with awkward questions.

 

[Yossarian]

Not sure what your feelings are but if Corbyn gets elected and with Trump in power any economic collapse in the next fears will be easily blamed on them even though their influence would be limited.

Part of me still wants Theresa May to win, with just enough seats to form a government by getting the Northern Irish Unionists to vote with her plus the fact that Sinn Fein does not take up it's seats in the House of Commons and thus cannot vote against the Tories in Parliament, ie The Tories lose roughly 10 seats compared with what they have currently.

This will mean that the Tories will be on knife edge every time Parliament takes a vote, the Tory PM (whether T. May or a successor) will have to wheel in every single Tory MP every time, be constantly in fear of a disgruntled Tory MP not turning up, and in essence means that the Tories could not pass any controversial Bill.

It will also mean that the Tories will have to negotiate Brexit, but with the likelihood that Parliament demands to have a final vote on it's final implementation, and gets that final vote (because the Tory PM will not be able to defeat the motion if only one or two Tory MP's rebel)..

This process will also bring home to the Brexiteers what Brexit means in reality, but still enough time to reconsider due to the point above.

A win-win situation!

 

[James]

a bit of a better showing from May tonight but considering her performances so far that isnt saying much. Some very good questions from the audience to both candidates.

Corbyn has performef better than expected in these debates now the proof will be in the pudding on June 8th i think Labour can increase to 250-260 seats.

My predictions are for a hung parliament or a narrow Tory majority. I dont see May making substansial gains on Camerons 330 2 years ago.

Whatever you want to say about Cameron he at least didnt crumple under pressure when faced with awkward questions.

Cameron ran a government for 6 years and usually stayed on his feet, actually starting to look like a bit of an accomplishment now with the minor sense of chaos we have been facing since the EU referendum.

 

[irfan]

May lied about Diane Abbott, she has only campaigned for innocent people who have not been convicted of any crime to be wiped off the DNA database.

 

[shaz619]

Part of me still wants Theresa May to win, with just enough seats to form a government by getting the Northern Irish Unionists to vote with her plus the fact that Sinn Fein does not take up it's seats in the House of Commons and thus cannot vote against the Tories in Parliament, ie The Tories lose roughly 10 seats compared with what they have currently.

This will mean that the Tories will be on knife edge every time Parliament takes a vote, the Tory PM (whether T. May or a successor) will have to wheel in every single Tory MP every time, be constantly in fear of a disgruntled Tory MP not turning up, and in essence means that the Tories could not pass any controversial Bill.

It will also mean that the Tories will have to negotiate Brexit, but with the likelihood that Parliament demands to have a final vote on it's final implementation, and gets that final vote (because the Tory PM will not be able to defeat the motion if only one or two Tory MP's rebel)..

This process will also bring home to the Brexiteers what Brexit means in reality, but still enough time to reconsider due to the point above.

A win-win situation!

Would you consider abstaining in this situation given the future projections of an economic collapse which will be blamed on Jeremy's "activist" politics? or do the costs out weigh the benefits?

 

[shaz619]

Theresa May has today had her Jobseeker’s Allowance stopped for failing to turn up for an interview.

Mrs May, who is applying for the post of Prime Minister, was repeatedly warned that failing to turn up for an interview would harm her chances of receiving benefits.

Department for Work and Pensions spokesperson Simon Williams said, “It’s very simple – to show us that jobseekers are serious about a job we expect them to attend interviews and answer questions so that we can gauge their suitability for the post.

“Otherwise we assume that they’re not up to the job, or just work-shy ********, and dock their money.

“We might have to give the job to someone else now, though **** knows who. This is the worst shower of applicants I’ve ever seen.”

Mrs May defended her decision not to turn up, saying that she was dead busy and they never sent her a letter or nothing and anyway she sent her mate Amber along who’s dead good at interviews and aced it for her.

 

[Yossarian]

Would you consider abstaining in this situation given the future projections of an economic collapse which will be blamed on Jeremy's "activist" politics? or do the costs out weigh the benefits?

Abstaining might mean the Tories winning in my area. Although to be honest, my vote is not going to make a jot of difference considering it's a semi-rural area in the Shires where you could put a Tory badge on a dog and it will still win by a landslide.. But I'll still be casting my vote.

 

[shaz619]

Abstaining might mean the Tories winning in my area. Although to be honest, my vote is not going to make a jot of difference considering it's a semi-rural area in the Shires where you could put a Tory badge on a dog and it will still win by a landslide.. But I'll still be casting my vote.

) I live in one of those Tory safe seats at the moment being a student but received a polling card for Brum as well and will be voting Labour there. I thought about it and feel like we should give Jeremy a chance regardless of the future projections because while he will be vilified in dire circumstances he could be exactly what we need rather then a Tory government who'd no doubt add more fuel to the fire

 

[James]

Cor blimey, Survation poll has Tories at 40% and Labour at 39%.

 

[s28]

The underlying data in all these polls actually shows Labour ahead.

The headline figures showing Tories ahead are after the underlying data is 'fudged'/adjusted to allow for the polling company guess as to how many of the people who say they will vote one way or the other will actually vote one way or the other or vote at all

 

[s28]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Blimey. <br>Survation / MAil on Sunday Poll conducted this morning (ie after QT):<br>Con 40 (-6%)<br>Lab 39 (+5%)<br>LD 8%<br>UKIP 5 %<br>Others 9%</p>— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) <a href="https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/871089790992732164">3 June 2017</a></blockquote>
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[Junaids]

We are entering into unknown territory now.

If I was Nicola Sturgeon, I'd be ringing up Jeremy Corbyn and offering to stand down my candidates from every seat in Scotland that the Conservatives cannot win. In return for an undertaking to hold a referendum on independence in 2018.

I still think that the Conservatives will win by 40 seats. No poll has yet shown Labour ahead.

But it really is squeaky bum time now.

 

[SpiritOf1903]

Here he is. Look at the shocked look on the faces of David Dimbleby and the rest of the panel. Even panelist Suzanne Evans of UKIP was shocked and basically said what he was saying was a bit too extreme!


<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/e0q6MJDVtQw" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

He's a Brummie

 

[TalhaSyed]

I wasn't joking either brother I think moving forward maybe things could be better in Scotland for me if I were to have a family and so on [MENTION=3474]TalhaSyed[/MENTION] I will be graduating soon god willing and am keeping my options open with regards to my future.
[MENTION=3474]TalhaSyed[/MENTION] which area has all the nice pakistani restaurants in Scotland? must be where the asian community is based mostly. What are the people and area like where you live Talha ?

If you wanna be in an area with a big Muslim population the Glasgow is a city to go.

Edinburgh also has a lot of Halal restaurants - though not as many as Glasgow and it has more of a mix (Pakistani, Turkish, Lebanese etc.)

If the Bear is thinking of moving to Scotland let Tallu know and he'll show you around

 

[TalhaSyed]

[mention=3474]talhasyed[/mention]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...ill-help-jeremy-corbyn-become-prime-minister/

Lets go Corbyn!!

Tories suck!

 

[s28]

I think if most people were given a choice of Theresa May for PM or Nicola Sturgeon they'd go Sturgeon

For most liberals/progressives and I'd bet even some Tories a Sturgeon/Corbyn ticket looks quite appealling

In 2015 right wing press had a field day saying vote Miliband get Salmond... it won't work this time

'Vote Corbyn, Get Sturgeon' would be a Labour landslide

 

[James]

SNP would bow to Corbyn's every whim in an informal joint government as long as he rubber-stamps IndyRef2. That is literally all they really want; so if he gets 285 seats on Thursday then he will be in a strong negotiating position and I would say therefore within one more raise of the royal flush.

 

[s28]

Media are mauling Theresa May over her terrorism failures and now Jeremy Corbyn adds to Tory Steve Hilton's call for her to resign

<blockquote class="twitter-video" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">WATCH THIS: Theresa May just got absolutely mauled by the media. Police cuts are the number one story. It's making her very uncomfortable... <a href="https://t.co/ddbxu3DHOj">pic.twitter.com/ddbxu3DHOj</a></p>— EL4C (@EL4JC) <a href="https://twitter.com/EL4JC/status/871690143387840512">5 June 2017</a></blockquote>
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[shaz619]

If you wanna be in an area with a big Muslim population the Glasgow is a city to go.

Edinburgh also has a lot of Halal restaurants - though not as many as Glasgow and it has more of a mix (Pakistani, Turkish, Lebanese etc.)

If the Bear is thinking of moving to Scotland let Tallu know and he'll show you around

Will let you know bro, I'd bug you every day in Scotland to the point where you move house

 

[s28]

 

[Macho Mann]

how many elections does britain have

 

[s28]

We were meant to have 5 yearly elections on basis of Fixed Term Parliament Act but the arrogant idiot Theresa May saw an opportunity to increase her power when she was 20% ahead in the polls and called an early election... but because she's an idiot and incompetent she has screwed up her campaign, her manifesto and her reputation

 

[s28]

<blockquote class="twitter-video" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">We asked a former British intelligence analyst how to make Britain safe. She didn't hold back. Watch and RT ⬇<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/GE2017?src=hash">#GE2017</a> <a href="https://t.co/hJZuVqxcfK">pic.twitter.com/hJZuVqxcfK</a></p>— Momentum (@PeoplesMomentum) <a href="https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/871661501488254976">5 June 2017</a></blockquote>
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[TalhaSyed]

Will let you know bro, I'd bug you every day in Scotland to the point where you move house

Bring it on

 

[Yossarian]

Could the weather make a difference to the final outcome?

Thursday is expected to be windy with rain falling most of the day. Whereas the pensioners and the older generation (who mostly vote Tory) are expected to dress in their Sunday best and go out and vote no matter what (for many of them it's their way of being important again), the younger generation on the other hand (the majority of whom are likely to vote Labour) may feel it's not worth going out and getting wet, besides they have better things to do anyway.

What do you think? Will the weather make a significant difference, especially in constituencies where a few votes either way could make the difference between winning and losing?

 

[s28]

Game on for my prediction of Labour crossover in polling before Election Day

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Westminster voting intention:<br><br>CON: 41% (-2)<br>LAB: 40% (+3)<br><br>(via <a href="https://twitter.com/Survation">@Survation</a> / 02 - 03 Jun)<br>Chgs. w/ 27 May.</p>— Britain Elects (@britainelects) <a href="https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/871858754769301504">5 June 2017</a></blockquote>
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[s28]

10,000 people turned out in the rain to see Corbyn in Gateshead

I don't think a bit of rain will stop people coming out in numbers to get rid of the vile Tories

<blockquote class="twitter-video" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Over 5,000 can't get in to Labour rally in Gateshead tonight because it's full! Here's people trying to get closer to hear Jeremy inside. <a href="https://t.co/uIrCc3IKVU">pic.twitter.com/uIrCc3IKVU</a></p>— Richard Burgon (@RichardBurgon) <a href="https://twitter.com/RichardBurgon/status/871786718369906690">5 June 2017</a></blockquote>
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[s28]

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[James]

Corbyn is on fire at the moment, but he really needs to bury Diane Abbott somewhere. She's just embarrassed the campaign yet again on Sky News.

 

[Eagle_Eye]

Corbyn is on fire at the moment, but he really needs to bury Diane Abbott somewhere. She's just embarrassed the campaign yet again on Sky News.

Agree. She needs to stay away till June 9th

 

[asifp]

First Past the post, Conservative will retain majority.

 

[Yossarian]

Agree. She needs to stay away till June 9th

She needs to stay away full stop. If Labour gets elected, Corbyn needs to make her the British Ambassador to Antarctica or some remote uninhabited island in the Pacific.

 

[s28]

<blockquote class="twitter-video" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">What was she thinking? &#55357;&#56834; <a href="https://t.co/XrhXOEZm1z">pic.twitter.com/XrhXOEZm1z</a></p>— Momentum (@PeoplesMomentum) <a href="https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/871777407002398721">5 June 2017</a></blockquote>
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[Eagle_Eye]

She needs to stay away full stop. If Labour gets elected, Corbyn needs to make her the British Ambassador to Antarctica or some remote uninhabited island in the Pacific.

She use to be articulate and reasonably well versed. But now she's a complete liability under scrutiny from media and the type of role she holds.

 

[Yossarian]

She use to be articulate and reasonably well versed. But now she's a complete liability under scrutiny from media and the type of role she holds.

Dementia?

 

[Big Mac]

Game on for my prediction of Labour crossover in polling before Election Day

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Westminster voting intention:<br><br>CON: 41% (-2)<br>LAB: 40% (+3)<br><br>(via <a href="https://twitter.com/Survation">@Survation</a> / 02 - 03 Jun)<br>Chgs. w/ 27 May.</p>— Britain Elects (@britainelects) <a href="https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/871858754769301504">5 June 2017</a></blockquote>
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Aren't Survation banking on a 90% turnout from 18-24 year olds?

 

[Yossarian]

Aren't Survation banking on a 90% turnout from 18-24 year olds?

Fat chance.

 

[Cpt. Rishwat]

View attachment 74563

I was driving past there on the other side of the bridge while that was going on. I was wondering what all the fuss was about.

 

[James]

Agree. She needs to stay away till June 9th

She needs to stay away full stop. If Labour gets elected, Corbyn needs to make her the British Ambassador to Antarctica or some remote uninhabited island in the Pacific.

Diane Abbott is Jeremy's old flame and his best mate, so he obviously has a big soft spot for her, but she is genuinely dragging him down at the moment. Successful politicians need to surround themselves with competent people, not their friends.

Speaking of which. An interesting occurrence today with Abbott calling in sick to Women's Hour. Perhaps she is in fact losing internal backing?

In any case, she must be getting managed through the Labour Party absence management process by now - after her "migraine" on the evening of the parliamentary Brexit vote

 

[KingKhanWC]

At the Corbyn rally in Birmingham

 

[s28]

Corbyn headlining the gig supported by Clean Bandit, The Farm, Saffia Khan and Steve Coogan !

 

[s28]

Getting really savage with the tweets as well.

<blockquote class="twitter-video" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">In less than one day, a million people have watched this video about <a href="https://twitter.com/theresa_may">@Theresa_May</a>'s record on cutting police numbers. <a href="https://t.co/RH9e8DLKgS">pic.twitter.com/RH9e8DLKgS</a></p>— Jeremy Corbyn (@jeremycorbyn) <a href="https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/872136014558404609">6 June 2017</a></blockquote>
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[Yossarian]

Speaking of which. An interesting occurrence today with Abbott calling in sick to Women's Hour. Perhaps she is in fact losing internal backing?

She was looking depressed and down hearted today. I wonder if her dire performances are making her ill rather than the other way around?

 

[James]

She was looking depressed and down hearted today. I wonder if her dire performances are making her ill rather than the other way around?

There's a photo on Twitter of her at the tube station nearest Radio 4 offices just this morning, taking a phone call. It's therefore possible that she was pulled at the last minute underneath a 'sickness' smokescreen when Jeremy realised that he could not sustain any more damage!

 

[s28]

<blockquote class="twitter-video" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Wow! Steve Coogan tells Birmingham to "rise like lions from their slumber in unvanquishable number" & get out & vote <a href="https://t.co/rovYyjaDxi">pic.twitter.com/rovYyjaDxi</a></p>— Jeremy Corbyn for PM (@JeremyCorbyn4PM) <a href="https://twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/872220164602941440">6 June 2017</a></blockquote>
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[s28]

<blockquote class="twitter-video" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/VoteLabour?src=hash">#VoteLabour</a> & 'Seize the means of production'. Brilliant video from Acid Womble. <a href="https://t.co/RfX0SGFXiF">pic.twitter.com/RfX0SGFXiF</a></p>— The Pileus (@thepileus) <a href="https://twitter.com/thepileus/status/872224824592146432">6 June 2017</a></blockquote>
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[s28]

<blockquote class="twitter-video" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">A truly remarkable 38 seconds of political analysis. Theresa May's entire political strategy has collapsed. <a href="https://t.co/vdItBVv6rj">pic.twitter.com/vdItBVv6rj</a></p>— Tory Fibs (@ToryFibs) <a href="https://twitter.com/ToryFibs/status/872077818452221952">6 June 2017</a></blockquote>
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[Junaids]

<blockquote class="twitter-video" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Wow! Steve Coogan tells Birmingham to "rise like lions from their slumber in unvanquishable number" & get out & vote <a href="https://t.co/rovYyjaDxi">pic.twitter.com/rovYyjaDxi</a></p>— Jeremy Corbyn for PM (@JeremyCorbyn4PM) <a href="https://twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/872220164602941440">6 June 2017</a></blockquote>
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Has Alan Partridge defected from the Tories to Labour?

Good grief, next it will be G-G-G-Granville and Arfer Daley.

If Hyacinth Bucket defects it's all over.

 

[James]

Abbott has been stood down. Lyn Brown to take on the Home Secretary charge.

There's a Malcolm Tucker-style cover story about her supposed ill health in full flow.

 

[s28]

Brilliant Newsnight video showing how Corbyn's campaign and manifesto has won round voters in a key marginal Walsall North

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/zK3NqdoWqSU" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[s28]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Nobel Prizewinning economist Joseph Stiglitz backs Labour's plans for the economy. <a href="https://t.co/2Pse8ESSpk">https://t.co/2Pse8ESSpk</a></p>— John McDonnell (@johnmcdonnellMP) <a href="https://twitter.com/johnmcdonnellMP/status/872452711043784704">7 June 2017</a></blockquote>
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[s28]

This. Is. Incredible.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/SeuH7FG9mSA" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[Markhor]

Come on let's get your election predictions in [MENTION=7774]Robert[/MENTION] [MENTION=4930]Yossarian[/MENTION] [MENTION=46929]shaz619[/MENTION] [MENTION=865]Big Mac[/MENTION] [MENTION=107620]s28[/MENTION] [MENTION=1842]James[/MENTION] [MENTION=136193]Adil_94[/MENTION] [MENTION=3474]TalhaSyed[/MENTION]

Going for a 61 seat Tory majority.

 

[s28]

I'm going with Yougov expectation of Tories 24 short of majority ; Hung Parliament

 

[Big Mac]

Come on let's get your election predictions in [MENTION=7774]Robert[/MENTION] [MENTION=4930]Yossarian[/MENTION] [MENTION=46929]shaz619[/MENTION] [MENTION=865]Big Mac[/MENTION] [MENTION=107620]s28[/MENTION] [MENTION=1842]James[/MENTION] [MENTION=136193]Adil_94[/MENTION] [MENTION=3474]TalhaSyed[/MENTION]

Going for a 61 seat Tory majority.

Human beings are generally awful so the Tories will win, with a reduced majority, and s28's post per day ratio will plummet.

Hoping for a hung parliament with the Lib Dems becoming kingmakers so they can push to retain membership of the common market, freedom of movement within the EU and the rest of that good stuff.

That's just a pipe dream though.

 

[shaz619]

Come on let's get your election predictions in [MENTION=7774]Robert[/MENTION] [MENTION=4930]Yossarian[/MENTION] [MENTION=46929]shaz619[/MENTION] [MENTION=865]Big Mac[/MENTION] [MENTION=107620]s28[/MENTION] [MENTION=1842]James[/MENTION] [MENTION=136193]Adil_94[/MENTION] [MENTION=3474]TalhaSyed[/MENTION]

Going for a 61 seat Tory majority.

The shaz619 predicts a narrow win for LABOUR !

 

[shaz619]

Human beings are generally awful so the Tories will win, with a reduced majority, and s28's post per day ratio will plummet.

Hoping for a hung parliament with the Lib Dems becoming kingmakers so they can push to retain membership of the common market, freedom of movement within the EU and the rest of that good stuff.

That's just a pipe dream though.

)

I think it will bring out the beast in him, he'd post a lot more ferociously

 

[James]

Hung Parliament with a Labour-SNP Coalition.

An alternative prediction to the majority (Tory victory) which is probably my honest prediction as well anyway.

 

[Yossarian]

Come on let's get your election predictions in [MENTION=7774]Robert[/MENTION] [MENTION=4930]Yossarian[/MENTION] [MENTION=46929]shaz619[/MENTION] [MENTION=865]Big Mac[/MENTION] [MENTION=107620]s28[/MENTION] [MENTION=1842]James[/MENTION] [MENTION=136193]Adil_94[/MENTION] [MENTION=3474]TalhaSyed[/MENTION]

Going for a 61 seat Tory majority.

Mines in the OP!

Yes, Theresa May and the Tories will win. But not by the massive margins forecast, especially if the polls start to narrow. (Tories need a lead of around 9% ahead of Labour in the polls just to maintain their current 10 or so majority!)

But if you want numbers, I'd say a Tory majority of between 10 to 40.

 

[James]

Is that 9% thing true Yossarian?

Is it because solid Labour constituencies are generally more populous?

 

[Yossarian]

Is that 9% thing true Yossarian?

Is it because solid Labour constituencies are generally more populous?

I know that total no of votes cast or percentage of votes cast for a particular party does not directly translate into number of seats won by them, but nevertheless it's a reasonable yardstick to use for Labour and the Tories since they field candidates in every constituency (except NI?).

In the 2015 General Election,
Seats won: Conservatives 331, Labour 232, others 87. = Tory Majority 12.
Votes cast: Conservatives 11,334,576 (36.9%), Labour 9,347,304 (30.4%)
ie Difference of 6.5%

 

[irfan]

70 seat majority for Cons unfortunately

 

[KingKhanWC]

@S28

What's the latest polls?

I read the Tory party is 12 points ahead now

 

[KingKhanWC]

Pretty much sums up the media in this country and the idiotic nature of many of the voters who fall for this.

 

[Yossarian]

@S28

What's the latest polls?

I read the Tory party is 12 points ahead now

It's from ICM which has consistently been showing the biggest lead for the Tories. In fact a 12 point lead is their lowest figure since the start of the election.

 

[Eagle_Eye]

Tories to win with 80+ majority

 

[KingKhanWC]

It's from ICM which has consistently been showing the biggest lead for the Tories. In fact a 12 point lead is their lowest figure since the start of the election.

Heavy rain is expected. Do you feel this will have any bearing on the turnout? If so which parties are likely to suffer?

 

[shaz619]

Heavy rain is expected. Do you feel this will have any bearing on the turnout? If so which parties are likely to suffer?

Don't worry, we will come out

 

[Yossarian]

Heavy rain is expected. Do you feel this will have any bearing on the turnout? If so which parties are likely to suffer?

Yes, I think it will be a factor. The elderly are heavily supporting the Tories, whilst the younger generations lean towards Labour.

Amongst the elderly, time and again, you hear them saying "We like Labour policies. Yes, Jeremy Corbyn is an honest man. But we don't like him!" - This, in my opinion, is the direct result of the Blairites sticking the knife into his back from the moment he was elected leader.

Getting back to your question:
For many of the elderly, going out to vote is their one chance to show that they still matter. So they put on their Sunday best and go out to vote, and make a big show of doing so. And they'll do that come rain or shine. Especially those voting Tory. The Labour leaning ones are probably less well off, and thus less liable to have their own cars to get to the polls, and thus less liable to to trudge through bad weather just to cast their vote..

In contrast, the younger generation are not so committed. They have a more laissez faire approach. They say that many of those at universities will vote Labour. But how many of those studying at uni, and living in digs or halls of residence, have cars to get them to the polling stations, as opposed to trudging through the wind and rain when they could be studying or enjoying themselves?