UK General Election. Don't be surprised if Theresa May's gamble fails

[KingKhanWC]

Don't worry, we will come out

Yes we will rain, snow or sleet! It's just the undecided voters who may be leaning towards labour who may be put off esp if they think the polls are showing no chance for JC.

 

[KingKhanWC]

Yes, I think it will be a factor. The elderly are heavily supporting the Tories, whilst the younger generations lean towards Labour.

Amongst the elderly, time and again, you hear them saying "We like Labour policies. Yes, Jeremy Corbyn is an honest man. But we don't like him!" - This, in my opinion, is the direct result of the Blairites sticking the knife into his back from the moment he was elected leader.

Getting back to your question:
For many of the elderly, going out to vote is their one chance to show that they still matter. So they put on their Sunday best and go out to vote, and make a big show of doing so. And they'll do that come rain or shine. Especially those voting Tory. The Labour leaning ones are probably less well off, and thus less liable to have their own cars to get to the polls, and thus less liable to to trudge through bad weather just to cast their vote..

In contrast, the younger generation are not so committed. They have a more laissez faire approach. They say that many of those at universities will vote Labour. But how many of those studying at uni, and living in digs or halls of residence, have cars to get them to the polling stations, as opposed to trudging through the wind and rain when they could be studying or enjoying themselves?

I kind of agree. I was at the Labour rally in Bham yesterday although it didn't rain heavily, you could tell a larger turnout would have been possible if it was hot and sunny.

 

[Dios]

I want to see the excuses Labour supporters pull after Theresa May increases her majority tomorrow.

 

[Yossarian]

I want to see the excuses Labour supporters pull after Theresa May increases her majority tomorrow.

Unless she increases it to 70+, she's in for a chop from the Tory's themselves. She's lost her mojo during the election campaign.

 

[Yossarian]

I kind of agree. I was at the Labour rally in Bham yesterday although it didn't rain heavily, you could tell a larger turnout would have been possible if it was hot and sunny.

Did you watch the bit about her on Newsnight tonight (err last night now)?

It was a mini documentary about her, with Tory colleagues, friends, even her school friends, being interviewed. They all more or less said that:

1. She's not good at understanding the economy and the way it works!

2. She's not good at negotiating, where you give a little, take a little, and generally try to work out a mutually beneficial deal that you're both happy with. She's much more fixed and less flexible. Also she doesn't like direct negotiations unless she has her team with her, because she herself can't think on the fly. If she's in a meeting without her team to advise her, she won't make a decision until she's gone back and consulted with them first.

And she's supposed to be the 'Strong and Stable' Leader in Brexit negotiations.

 

[KingKhanWC]

Did you watch the bit about her on Newsnight tonight (err last night now)?

It was a mini documentary about her, with Tory colleagues, friends, even her school friends, being interviewed. They all more or less said that:

1. She's not good at understanding the economy and the way it works!

2. She's not good at negotiating, where you give a little, take a little, and generally try to work out a mutually beneficial deal that you're both happy with. She's much more fixed and less flexible. Also she doesn't like direct negotiations unless she has her team with her, because she herself can't think on the fly. If she's in a meeting without her team to advise her, she won't make a decision until she's gone back and consulted with them first.

And she's supposed to be the 'Strong and Stable' Leader in Brexit negotiations.

No but will catch it on iplayer, thanks.

I dont understand how people have confidence in her negotating Brexit if she need advice to make any decisions. If she wins I really hope the 'no deal is a better than a bad deal' was just rhetoric. Walking away from any deal will surely have huge effects on the British economy, probably starting with the sterling taking another massive dive. Prices for all types of goods will increase and freedom of movement will diminish considerably. I really don't know what people see in her or perhaps it's the scaremongering regarding Corbyn which captured the foolish?

 

[James]

Sorry gents but I have a dull feeling in my bones - I think the Tories have got this one.

 

[KingKhanWC]

Sorry gents but I have a dull feeling in my bones - I think the Tories have got this one.

A bit of hope

new poll conducted by London research company Qriously gives Labour a 3-point lead over the Conservatives in the 2017 UK general election.

The survey puts Labour on 41.3 per cent of the vote and the Conservatives at 38.5 per cent, making the final result too close to call because the difference falls within the 3.2 per cent margin of error.

"This is the first poll that gives an outright lead for Labour," Christopher Kahler, Qriously's CEO, says. "But our results are not wildly out of line with what other polls are predicting. It’s generally agreed that it will be a close-run election."

- Read more about who to vote for and how to vote

Furthermore, only 85 per cent of ‘very likely’ Labour voters are certain of their voting intention on Thursday, versus 92 per cent for the Conservatives. Turnout is predicted to be high at around 70 per cent. "Turnout estimate has increased from a few weeks ago, when we had 60 per cent," Kahler continues. "We think this might be because the outcome is no longer a foregone conclusion, which in turn has come from an unexpectedly strong Labour performance." The poll puts the Liberal Democrats on 6 per cent, the Scottish National Party at 3.8 per cent and the UK Independence Party on 3 per cent. The number of undecided voters is at 14 per cent.

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The survey also provides further insights into voter sentiment, reflecting how unpredictable this electoral campaign has become: 43.3 per cent of the voters surveyed believe that their neighbours will vote for Conservative, versus 37.2 per cent who believe their neighbours will vote Labour instead.

"People generally believe the Conservatives will win," Kahler says."As to the impact on voting behaviour, that’s hard to say. It could galvanise Labour voters into action, or alternatively, it could make them feel the cause is hopeless and lead them to stay home. Likewise, it could make Conservative voters complacent, or encourage them to vote."

London-based Qriously is an ad-tech startup with an extensive list of clients including Vodafone, Audi, B&Q and organisations like the New York Police Department. Qriously conducts surveys by sending short questionnaires via mobile phone to billions of users in a matter of seconds. Using their platform, they have been able to correctly predict the outcome of the Brexit referendum, the Italian constitutional referendum, the Dutch general election and the Turkish constitutional referendum. According to Kahler, they can theoretically reach 80 per cent of smartphone users worldwide.

Qriously conducted this survey between Sunday 4 June and today, interviewing 2,213 UK adults. Data was weighted on gender, age, region and income to be demographically representative.

http://www.wired.co.uk/article/election-polls-labour-conservative-winner

 

[s28]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Final Con leads by pollster:<br><br>BMG: +13<br>ICM: +12<br>ComRes: +10<br>Panelbase: +8<br>Opinium: +7<br>TNS: +5<br>YouGov: +7<br>Survation: +1<br>Ipsos Mori: awaiting.</p>— Britain Elects (@britainelects) <a href="https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/872591111746990080">7 June 2017</a></blockquote>
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[s28]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Definitely no herding toward a consensus in the final UK polls. We've got everything from Conservatives +13 to Labour +3. <a href="https://t.co/8BZ502E24P">pic.twitter.com/8BZ502E24P</a></p>— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) <a href="https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/872593361861058560">7 June 2017</a></blockquote>
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[Nostalgic]

How prevalent is the infamous "shy Tory" phenomenon these days? Have the recent elections shown a significant difference between the polls and the eventual results in the Tory share of the vote?

 

[s28]

Good point. There is no 'Shy Tory' effect. The 2017 polls over-estimate Tory vote now because they assume a 'Shy Tory' effect and thus overcompensate for their 2015 errors. If anything given the media evisceration of Corbyn there should be a 'Shy Corbyn' effect.

The most stark example of this would be the Local Election results in May. Although the Tories were supposedly polling in the mid/high 40s in the National polls in the actual vote they only got a PNS (Projected National Share) of 37%.

Unfortunately polling companies are run by either fools or shills so they can't seem to get it into their thick heads that they are wrong.

 

[s28]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">I will lead a government you can rely on. Labour will build a Britain that works <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/ForTheMany?src=hash">#ForTheMany</a>, not the few. <a href="https://t.co/sTwuZ7a3p3">pic.twitter.com/sTwuZ7a3p3</a></p>— Jeremy Corbyn (@jeremycorbyn) <a href="https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/872437880622391296">7 June 2017</a></blockquote>
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[Junaids]

My prediction:

SCOTLAND
Conservatives 10 net gains from SNP
Labour 3 net gains from SNP
Lib Dems 1 net gain from SNP

ENGLAND AND WALES
Conservatives 5 net gains from Labour
Lib Dems 3 net gains from Conservatives
Labour 3 net gains from Lib Dems

Conservative majority roughly 30

 

[Nostalgic]

Good point. There is no 'Shy Tory' effect. The 2017 polls over-estimate Tory vote now because they assume a 'Shy Tory' effect and thus overcompensate for their 2015 errors. If anything given the media evisceration of Corbyn there should be a 'Shy Corbyn' effect.

The most stark example of this would be the Local Election results in May. Although the Tories were supposedly polling in the mid/high 40s in the National polls in the actual vote they only got a PNS (Projected National Share) of 37%.

Unfortunately polling companies are run by either fools or shills so they can't seem to get it into their thick heads that they are wrong.

Thanks. Another question: how big have the discrepancies between the share of the vote and the share of MPs been for the major parties in recent times? Which major party comes out worse off in that regard?

 

[Junaids]

Did you watch the bit about her on Newsnight tonight (err last night now)?

It was a mini documentary about her, with Tory colleagues, friends, even her school friends, being interviewed. They all more or less said that:

1. She's not good at understanding the economy and the way it works!

2. She's not good at negotiating, where you give a little, take a little, and generally try to work out a mutually beneficial deal that you're both happy with. She's much more fixed and less flexible. Also she doesn't like direct negotiations unless she has her team with her, because she herself can't think on the fly. If she's in a meeting without her team to advise her, she won't make a decision until she's gone back and consulted with them first.

And she's supposed to be the 'Strong and Stable' Leader in Brexit negotiations.

What's wrong with that?

There is a negotiating team for Brexit. It's crucial that there NOT be a Prime Minister who interferes and mucks it up, like Thatcher did with Hong Kong.

I've read extensively about the Hong Kong negotiations, and attended a speech by Chris Patten - the last Governor - which basically reinforced everything I'm about to say.

In short, the People's Republic of China was still an impoverished and backward sleeping giant in the period 1980-1984.

The UK government Foreign Office had calculated that Britain could afford to retain Hong Kong and Kowloon indefinitely even if China resumed sovereignty over the New Territories as it was legally entitled to do. In fact, even with the cost - primarily in water production and importation - Hong Kong would still be a close second behind London in terms of its net contribution to the UK economy.

But Thatcher had a stinking cold, and had not been able to absorb her briefing with her usual alacrity. And moreover, she and Denis were inveterate racists who disliked the company of Orientals.

Deng Xiaoping, in contrast, played his role to perfection. He deliberately wore a dirty and malodorous worksuit and chewed betel nut, which he continuously spat into a spittoon by Thatcher's feet. He coughed up phlegm when he wasn't coughing up betel residue.

Thatcher was appalled by this odious and apparently uncivilized little man. She could not surrender and get out quick enough.

So it was that the UK surrendered its second city, just 35 years ago.

So please forgive me if I don't want the PM negotiating anything herself, and if I don't want ANY decisions made "on the fly".

 

[TalhaSyed]

Come on let's get your election predictions in [MENTION=7774]Robert[/MENTION] [MENTION=4930]Yossarian[/MENTION] [MENTION=46929]shaz619[/MENTION] [MENTION=865]Big Mac[/MENTION] [MENTION=107620]s28[/MENTION] [MENTION=1842]James[/MENTION] [MENTION=136193]Adil_94[/MENTION] [MENTION=3474]TalhaSyed[/MENTION]

Going for a 61 seat Tory majority.

My head says a hung parliament but in recent times elections have not gone as you thought they will go - so I'm gonna go for a narrow win for Labour InshAllah!

 

[IMMY69]

"Works for the many"

Not EVERYBODY.

I just voted

 

[Yossarian]

"Works for the many"

Not EVERYBODY.

I just voted

Give the man a prize!

 

[Robert]

My prediction:

SCOTLAND
Conservatives 10 net gains from SNP
Labour 3 net gains from SNP
Lib Dems 1 net gain from SNP

ENGLAND AND WALES
Conservatives 5 net gains from Labour
Lib Dems 3 net gains from Conservatives
Labour 3 net gains from Lib Dems

Conservative majority roughly 30

Seems about right.

I hope Jo Swanson gets her seat back. The Lib Dems will need a new leader after this debacle.

 

[s28]

Brightening up now but when I did some door knocking earlier many had already been out and voted by 11.30

Feeling positive

IF people vote for the Tory toad in my constituency they deserve to get what is coming to them

go on Jezza
<blockquote class="twitter-video" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">One of my faves from the campaign <a href="https://t.co/xuD1LVQpdY">pic.twitter.com/xuD1LVQpdY</a></p>— The Absolute Boy JC (@TheBirmingham6) <a href="https://twitter.com/TheBirmingham6/status/872422814900506624">7 June 2017</a></blockquote>
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[s28]

Hello darkness my old friend...
<blockquote class="twitter-video" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">A tale of 2 campaigns <a href="https://t.co/E9KolY1Yzb">pic.twitter.com/E9KolY1Yzb</a></p>— Corbynator (@Corbynator2) <a href="https://twitter.com/Corbynator2/status/872420257130053633">7 June 2017</a></blockquote>
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[Cpt. Rishwat]

Murdoch enterprises is out will all guns blazing. Could the average Joe fall for it again?

 

[James]

Voted for Labour. Wife did also.

 

[shaz619]

Murdoch enterprises is out will all guns blazing. Could the average Joe fall for it again?



View attachment 74663

This was also in The Sun paper:

 

[s28]

I've been out and about with some of these characters 4:59

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/VeDMPkBXMpY" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[shaz619]

Give the man a prize!

This was [MENTION=491]IMMY69[/MENTION] heading to the polls this morning:

 

[Yossarian]

UK General Election. Don't be surprised if Theresa May's gamble fails

It failed

 

[James]

Yet another astonishing political result !

 

[Yossarian]

Yet another astonishing political result !

Is it? Why do you think I started the thread when everyone was expecting a Labour wipeout? (so he says blowing his own trumpet )

 

[JaDed]

Well predicted [MENTION=4930]Yossarian[/MENTION] but what do you think about terror attacks affecting the results?

 

[Yossarian]

Well predicted [MENTION=4930]Yossarian[/MENTION] but what do you think about terror attacks affecting the results?

They did affect.But not in the way everyone expected. War (or terror attacks) unite the country, usually behind the leader of the country, which gives him/her a chance to appear strong (and nobody wants to criticise him/her so as not to show the enemy/terrorists that there are divisions).
But, it went the opposite way for T.May. Tory attacks on Corbyn backfired, whilst May was partly blamed because of May's role in reducing 20,000 police numbers when Home Secretary.

 

[JaDed]

They did affect.But not in the way everyone expected. War (or terror attacks) unite the country, usually behind the leader of the country, which gives him/her a chance to appear strong (and nobody wants to criticise him/her so as not to show the enemy/terrorists that there are divisions).
But, it went the opposite way for T.May. Tory attacks on Corbyn backfired, whilst May was partly blamed because of May's role in reducing 20,000 police numbers when Home Secretary.

Yes think her home secretary role played a part here,hopefully she isn't shameless and resigns now.Pretty bad outcome for conservatives offlate first France and now this,wonder if it also something to do with Trump being the worst face of world conservatives,(eventhough personally he wouldn't be one).

 

[Cpt. Rishwat]

Yes think her home secretary role played a part here,hopefully she isn't shameless and resigns now.Pretty bad outcome for conservatives offlate first France and now this,wonder if it also something to do with Trump being the worst face of world conservatives,(eventhough personally he wouldn't be one).

More to do with the younger voters coming out in numbers to try and free themselves from the yoke of debt that they are lumbered with if they choose to pursue higher education under the Conservatives. When push came to shove, all the scaremongering of the last few years has been mostly rejected by the people, that much is clear with the crumbling UKIP vote. The public have voted for stuff that affects their everyday lives over the fear generated by the few.

 

[tahir_dj]

i think if there was 1 more month of campaign the labour would have got even more seats as the hate for thressa may was building up.

 

[Yossarian]

Yes think her home secretary role played a part here,hopefully she isn't shameless and resigns now.Pretty bad outcome for conservatives offlate first France and now this,wonder if it also something to do with Trump being the worst face of world conservatives,(eventhough personally he wouldn't be one).

I personally hoped for this very outcome with Tories still in power but without a majority.

The Tory won't be able to ride roughshod and do everything they wanted. They will have to wheel in every single MP for every meaningful vote in Parliament, the result will be on knife edge every time, with the possibility of a Tory MP or two rebelling.

it also puts pressure on Labour Blairites to back Corbyn, or not oppose him anyway.

But most importantly, Tories carry the can as the Brexit disaster brings to hit home to the ignorant masses as the Brexit negotiations progress and start to highlight the real difficulties, complexities and ramifications of leaving the EU

 

[Cpt. Rishwat]

I personally hoped for this very outcome with Tories still in power but without a majority.

The Tory won't be able to ride roughshod and do everything they wanted. They will have to wheel in every single MP for every meaningful vote in Parliament, the result will be on knife edge every time, with the possibility of a Tory MP or two rebelling.

it also puts pressure on Labour Blairites to back Corbyn, or not oppose him anyway.

But most importantly, Tories carry the can as the Brexit disaster brings to hit home to the ignorant masses as the Brexit negotiations progress and start to highlight the real difficulties, complexities and ramifications of leaving the EU

I did think about that, and there's a certain amount of schadenfreude to be had in watching the Tories struggle with Brexit. If Labour had won, they would have been lumbered with the fallout so it was a bit of a poisoned chalice. In the end though the ramifications of leaving the EU are going to harm all of us in my opinion so the only good result would have been one where there was a second referendum.

 

[Yossarian]

I did think about that, and there's a certain amount of schadenfreude to be had in watching the Tories struggle with Brexit. If Labour had won, they would have been lumbered with the fallout so it was a bit of a poisoned chalice. In the end though the ramifications of leaving the EU are going to harm all of us in my opinion so the only good result would have been one where there was a second referendum.

And thats why in my opinion there might still be one. Dont forget, now with every Tory MP vote crucial, with plenty of Tory MP's Remainers, its not going to be easy for the Tories to do what they want. Had Labour been in power, in a coalition, and tried to have a 2nd vote, the Brexiteers would have caused a civil war. But if the Tories are forced to do it .... as you say, a poisoned chalice

 

[s28]

.<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/t2OzrSH5tS0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[s28]

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[s28]

expert Prof Curtice on what happened

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">John Curtice gives his take on on <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/GE2017?src=hash">#GE2017</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/johncurticebreakfast?src=hash">#johncurticebreakfast</a> <a href="https://t.co/jKj154cxEG">https://t.co/jKj154cxEG</a></p>— NatCen (@NatCen) <a href="https://twitter.com/NatCen/status/874892655444058113">14 June 2017</a></blockquote>
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[James]

A lot of discussion in the Sunday papers about TM's position and the low confidence of Tory MPs in her leadership. The Telegraph and the Times reckon that she could go within the next few weeks.

 

[Robert]

Right [MENTION=1842]James[/MENTION]. Leadership challengers do not tend to succeed in the Tory party - look at Hezza in 1990 - but a stalking horse will emerge. The horse will garner enough votes to force an election by MPs, then disappear as a big beast emerges to take on Mrs May.

 

[Yossarian]

Right [MENTION=1842]James[/MENTION]. Leadership challengers do not tend to succeed in the Tory party - look at Hezza in 1990 - but a stalking horse will emerge. The horse will garner enough votes to force an election by MPs, then disappear as a big beast emerges to take on Mrs May.

As you know, Anthony Meyer MP (a nobody at the time) was the Stalking Horse that resulted in Margaret Thatcher being brought down. In Theresa May's case, there doesn't even need to be an actual challenge via a Stalking Horse. Merely making it obvious that there is likely to be one will be enough to tip Theresa May over the edge and force her to resign.

 

[s28]

Almost a year ago

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">I will lead a government you can rely on. Labour will build a Britain that works <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/ForTheMany?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#ForTheMany</a>, not the few. <a href="https://t.co/sTwuZ7a3p3">pic.twitter.com/sTwuZ7a3p3</a></p>— Jeremy Corbyn (@jeremycorbyn) <a href="https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/872437880622391296?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">7 June 2017</a></blockquote>
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[s28]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Final Con leads by pollster:<br><br>BMG: +13<br>ICM: +12<br>ComRes: +10<br>Panelbase: +8<br>Opinium: +7<br>TNS: +5<br>YouGov: +7<br>Survation: +1<br>Ipsos Mori: awaiting.</p>— Britain Elects (@britainelects) <a href="https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/872591111746990080">7 June 2017</a></blockquote>
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be wary of polls !

 

[Robert]

Right [MENTION=1842]James[/MENTION]. Leadership challengers do not tend to succeed in the Tory party - look at Hezza in 1990 - but a stalking horse will emerge. The horse will garner enough votes to force an election by MPs, then disappear as a big beast emerges to take on Mrs May.

Still waiting for that horse.