You are doing battle with strawmen entirely of your making. What jackpot are you talking about? Why the constant descent into caricature?
The question is not whether the next coach will win Pakistan the WC. It is simply: could he do better? And again, we can't know the answer until we try.
The past is a gauge of the future until it isn't. Simple as. India couldn't win abroad until it started winning abroad. Sri Lanka was a minnow in cricket until it won the WC.
As far as I can tell, repeating the same process at this stage would entail keeping Waqar on.
I could entertain your rather peculiar extrapolation from Test results to ODIs. You do understand that the opposite argument could be made on the same evidence?
But you seem make this point so at to argue that success in Tests is not due to the coach. Which begs the question, why have a coach at all?
Again we come to the conclusion that either way, Waqar should be fired.
Let's just hire a fitness trainer and be done with this argument.
India didn't start winning abroad because they found the right coach; they started winning abroad because they found the right players, and that happened because they evolved with time and improved their infrastructure at the grass-root level.
Sri Lanka did not win the World Cup because of Whatmore. Same Whatmore who couldn't beat Zimbabwe with Pakistan and failed to win a Test series for 2 years; same Whatmore who flopped in the IPL and failed with Sri Lanka in his second stint. Same Whatmore who has never been hired by teams like Australia, England, South Africa, India (only at U-19 level) etc.
Yes the opposite argument can also be made. I never said Waqar is a great coach, because the role of head coach in cricket is vastly overrated. All you need is a great captain and in Pakistan, most of the time, our captain has no tactical skills and on top of that, is not even good enough to merit a place in the team logically.
Which of course means that our players don't receive good education at the grass-root level, and if we are to become a top team we need to improve our infrastructure, cosmetic changes at the top and going from one coach to another when you don't have the players will not help.
I don't care if Waqar is coach or not, my point is that don't expect better results with the same set of players under some other coach, and that is why we have been in terminal decline for a decade even though we have gone through 8 different coaches. That is sufficient evidence that our problem starts at the bottom and not at the top.
Sacking coaches is ignoring the elephant in the room and not addressing the core problem. This has been the problem for years and decades, and that is why Pakistan cricket has regressed.