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What is the future of the Pakistan Muslim League (N) party after Nawaz Sharif's disqualification?

Markhor

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After the Supreme Court's disqualification of Nawaz Sharif, there are many questions that have emerged. What is the future of a Party that for decades has revolved around one man and one family ?

The succession plan is seriously imperiled now that the names of Nawaz's sons and Maryam Sharif are forever tainted by this scandal.

Is there a chance of splits forming, defections or even the disintegration of the party ? Does the PML-N have the maturity to make a clean break from the Sharifs and hold democratic party elections or will the Sharifs try to control the show from behind the scenes ?

There'll always be a party in some form to represent the entrenched interests of the Punjab industrial-bureaucratic elite but for much longer will that party be the PML-N ? Will Nawaz fight this as he's done in the past or will he finally exit Pakistan's political landscape ?
 
Next couple of weeks will give us a clear picture i am expecting splits and many electables jumping out of the ship...
 
Next couple of weeks will give us a clear picture i am expecting splits and many electables jumping out of the ship...

What chance do you think PTI will have of winning in Punjab at the next election now ?
 
What chance do you think PTI will have of winning in Punjab at the next election now ?

I don't think PTI will win, even now. As much as I want us to break away from this PML-N PPP tussle, simply can't see PML N lose because they are still the most popular party in Punjab. And if you win Punjab you win the whole country.

Some people are dheet, stubborn. Even after seeing this they will still vote for the noon party. It's when this older generation dies out that we might see some noticeable change in terms of who comes in power.
 
in one word "DARK"

I can see a fight within party for the throne and if the other brother is made PM things will only become worse
 
Ousted PM left with limited legal remedies

ISLAMABAD: Adjudicated under Article 184-3 of the Constitution, the apex court decision on Panama Papers case leaves limited legal remedies for Nawaz Sharif, the ousted prime minister, and his family members, expect for filing a review petition.

Disqualified as a member of parliament, Sharif can no longer formally head the PML-N as Section V of the Political Parties Order, 2002 bars a person – who is not qualified to be a lawmaker – from becoming office-bearer of any political party.

The ruling party is in the process of choosing Sharif’s successor as leader of the house. It would also have to elect a new president for the party in the coming days. However, it is clear that the party would complete its full five-year term ending on June 4, next year before entering the race for the next general elections.

Intransigent ruling PML-N has vowed to fight back – both on legal and political fronts after the court injunction. It has decided to continue an aggressive posture, irrespective of consequences.
The ruling party plans to intensify its battle against political opponents and powerful institutions of the country. The PML-N believes the ground on which Nawaz Sharif is disqualified is not cogent enough to oust an elected prime minister.

Once the precedent has been set, the same ground of non-declaration in nomination forms can easily be used against other top politicians. The PTI chief Imran Khan is already facing similar charges in a pending case. Many other known politicians can be implicated on these charges.

This also means the PML-N would passionately pursue pending cases and may file more such petitions against their political opponents in the coming days.

Failure of political forces

Instead of strengthening the appropriate forums, the politicians have been relaying on other institutions to deal with political matters. Analysts believe that parliament over the years has been conveniently conceding its supremacy in favour of other institutions.

Soon after Panama Papers case came to the limelight, it was an excellent opportunity for the political parties to come up with some credible accountability mechanism acceptable to all. They had been critical of the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) but failed to replace it with an independent anti-graft watchdog.

Political leaders have been castigating the ambiguous provisions of Sadiq and Ameen added to Articles 62 and 63 of the Constitution during military regime of General Ziaul Haq but have never made a serious attempt to rectify them.

The same goes for powers of the apex court under Article 184-3. There is no provision to file appeal against it. The government initiated process to amend the provision a few months ago when the Panama Papers case had already landed in Supreme Court but had to shelve the plan after finding that most opposition parties were averse to the move because of its timing.


The draft bill, if passed, would have inculcated a provision to file an appeal against decisions taken in suo motu cases. Such an appeal could have been heard by a bench comprising judges other than the ones who gave the decision. Had the bill been passed on time, the aggrieved PML-N could have had one more forum for remedy.

At the start of the Panamagate controversy, when the apex court rejected government’s application to investigate into the matter under ‘toothless’ Commission Of Inquiry Act, 1956, the government and opposition had entered into parlays to devise a workable mechanism for investigations.

After several rounds of talks, they failed to agree on terms of reference (ToRs) of the proposed probe commission. The government wanted an open-ended inquiry which would have potentially opened thousands of cases – many of them with no connection whatsoever with the Panama Leaks.

This would have started a never-ending exercise putting the real issue on the back burner. Due to its inflexible attitude, the government lost opportunity to resolve the controversy and ultimately the apex court had to intervene into the matter due to precarious political situation.

Source: https://tribune.com.pk/story/1469135/ousted-pm-left-limited-legal-remedies/
 
I don't think PTI will win, even now. As much as I want us to break away from this PML-N PPP tussle, simply can't see PML N lose because they are still the most popular party in Punjab. And if you win Punjab you win the whole country.

Some people are dheet, stubborn. Even after seeing this they will still vote for the noon party. It's when this older generation dies out that we might see some noticeable change in terms of who comes in power.

PTI won't win all of Punjab, but I don't see why they can't take significant chunks of Punjab away from PML-N. Plus, if PML-N splits into fragments, their vote share will also split too.
 
Nawaz is over for 2018 election but rest depends on what will happen to SS. If he gets into trouble because of hudaibiya paper mill case then Imran Khan will be the next PM ( considering no disqualification). Shahbaz will be favourite to win the next PM if somehow manages to escape all this.
 
I am afraid to say that they still have great support in Punjab and have a good future unless some splits happen as some posters said above.

Just like MQM and Karachi. You cant take Altaf bhai and MQM from Karachi walas. Both these parties MQM and PMLN thrive on regional and ethnic politics.
 
Panama verdict will certainly shift more votes to the PTI from the PML-N. The PTI will garner more votes in the GE 2018 than what they achieved in GE 2013 due to their long and hard fight against corruption and the ultimate dismissal of Nawaz Sharif.

There were also reports that 30 PML-N were willing to join the PTI if SC's verdict is against the Sharif clan. If this happens, combined with the PTI-led dismissal of Nawaz Sharif, the PTI will win Punjab and Imran Khan will become the PM.
 
Does the PML-N have the maturity to make a clean break from the Sharifs and hold democratic party elections or will the Sharifs try to control the show from behind the scenes ?
Well today's events answer that question.

The family business continues.
 
It has dented N league they will lost seats in next GE prolly their size might be half still it might be the case that both PTI and PML N gets equal seats and whoever collects lota' makes govt
 
It'll take a few election cycles for them to be truly wiped out. They still have a presence in Punjab.
 
Punjab will stay with them

Slave mentality
 
I am afraid to say that they still have great support in Punjab and have a good future unless some splits happen as some posters said above.

Just like MQM and Karachi. You cant take Altaf bhai and MQM from Karachi walas. Both these parties MQM and PMLN thrive on regional and ethnic politics.

And how did you become an authority on Karachi?
 
And how did you become an authority on Karachi?

From my recent visits and 90% cousins and friends and by-elections in last few years. I can say for middle class that MQM still have large support in Khi and the next elections will prove it.
Even the supporters outside Sarfi's home chanted naaras of Jiay Muhajir.. I mean seriously :O Would be a sight to see Hasan Ali supporters chanting jiay Punjabi and Fakhar Zaman fans chanting Jiay Pashtoon/Hindko... is qoum ko abhi time lagna hai regionalism sai bahir nikalnay mai.. Especially PMLN aur MQM supporters ko
 
From my recent visits and 90% cousins and friends and by-elections in last few years. I can say for middle class that MQM still have large support in Khi and the next elections will prove it.
Even the supporters outside Sarfi's home chanted naaras of Jiay Muhajir.. I mean seriously :O Would be a sight to see Hasan Ali supporters chanting jiay Punjabi and Fakhar Zaman fans chanting Jiay Pashtoon/Hindko... is qoum ko abhi time lagna hai regionalism sai bahir nikalnay mai.. Especially PMLN aur MQM supporters ko

And I would even say in last elections it looked a party like PTI had a larger support in Khi then now still they only managed to win only 1/2 seats while MQM grabbed most of the seats in Khi
 
PTI won't win all of Punjab, but I don't see why they can't take significant chunks of Punjab away from PML-N. Plus, if PML-N splits into fragments, their vote share will also split too.

Even if they were to get parts of Punjab it won't be enough to make a difference and Imran has made no serious effort to make a strong foothold in Sindh. Punjabis have a strong loyalty to pml-n.

You are right about the split though. But I think if that happens PPP will win.

Think it's going to take a few years before PTI establishes itself as a big player.
 
What I see is PML(N) splitting in factions. I believe Shabaz Sharif if he becomes PM will get disqualified in 6-9 months due to the Hudaibiya case. What would be interesting is to see Qadri making an enterance now #ModelTown to put more pressure on Shabaz. More then that, sources say that there are major difference between the Sharifs. Hamza Shabaz has an indifferent relationship with kulsoom, Maryam etc The Nawaz dynasty terminating has drove the Nawaz side of family crazy. You could tell this by Nawaz Sharif body language today that he is in denial and didn't really want to recommend Shabaz.

Interesting times ahead! But I really do believe that the Shabaz disqualification will be the nails in the coffin for PMLN and PTI would be able to clean sweep Punjab as a result. PTI should really push for biometric system now as it has political leverage at the moment.
 
only negative impact: he cannot become PM

otherwise this qualification has given new life to PMLN.
raden_sarief_bastaman_saleh_wounded_lion_d5391008g.jpg
 
You cannot put NS in same bucket as Ch Shujat/Ch Nasir/Atiziz Ashan/Asad Umar etc like tier 2 politicians. NS still has one of the biggest vote bank and political brand in the country. If Benizir was still alive, PPP would not have been a dead party. Look at Altaf, he is running Karachi from London in last 2/3 decades. PPP despite loosing all leaders by death, still wins in Sindh...At the end many people don't like establishment, these brand names cannot be killed by SC or Army in one shot...When people can believe all problems can be solved by Islam without any evidence, why its a surprise that these political brands are so strong??

Many PPers are in denial that IK is very different from NS or Benzir, his party is working exactly same way as the other two did in 90s. they (Benazir and NS) worked with Army to topple the other govt now IK is doing the same...There parties were filled with lotas, now IK is on lota hiring speer. In all cases, their govt did not topple because of corruption alone, well its when they had rift with military. At some point IK would have to disagree with military, I doubt result would be different, people are already talking about IK needs to increase his PR with military, again something people were saying back in 1986/87 about Benazir

Its a dilemma for Military, if they really go hard at NS, they will make him hero, if they go too soft now, they will be perceived as bad guys by lot more people...There is a reason why political matters are better judge by people and not by establishment, specially in a country like Pakistan where not single PM has completed his term in 70 years...When we talk about establishment, how many Generals, Judges have been tried on court?? - They did nothing wrong in 70 years? - For politicians tier 1 are killed, jailed, exiled and forcefully barred from election :acp:
 
PTI won't win all of Punjab, but I don't see why they can't take significant chunks of Punjab away from PML-N. Plus, if PML-N splits into fragments, their vote share will also split too.


NS still has Punjab Govt, if they take everything away from NS, political victimization can be bad for establishment party aka PTI. You don't want to look like an establishment party...Plus PTI is very weak in ruler Punjab and Sindh, buying lotas does not work that quickly, NS name still sells...IK has no real strategy for those areas, probably don't understand them yet...
 
Nawaz is over for 2018 election but rest depends on what will happen to SS. If he gets into trouble because of hudaibiya paper mill case then Imran Khan will be the next PM ( considering no disqualification). Shahbaz will be favourite to win the next PM if somehow manages to escape all this.

If they disqualify Shahbaz and Imran, peecha raha kiya gaya?? - Military is not that dumb ;-)
 
If they disqualify Shahbaz and Imran, peecha raha kiya gaya?? - Military is not that dumb ;-)

Pti would be hoping for SS disqualification otherwise it would be mighty difficult to defeat brand Shahbaz in Punjab.
 
Taking NS out is just like selling a marquee player from a top club but the club has its strength although it will be slightly weaken PTI has still work to do unless NAB also go full throttle on PML N top brass in next 6 months
 
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