Prediction
When Pakistan and India meet, the one thing that can be predicted is that it will be a tense contest decided by which team holds its nerves better. On overall T20 record, it is easy to predict Pakistan. However, head to head, Pakistan have neither ever beaten India in a T20 on two attempts nor ever beaten India in any World Cup match.
On recent record though, Pakistan has to start this match as favourites.
Overall Record in Format
India
They have 18 wins in 35 matches, barely winning over half their matches. They have won the inaugural edition of the T20 World Cup but were knocked out in the other two editions before reaching the knock out phase.
Pakistan
They have 34 wins in 57 matches, easily winning over half their matches. They finished in the finals of the inaugural edition after a freak shot by Misbah meant India won. However, they bounced back to win the next one and finished in the semi finals of the third edition where a freak innings by Hussey knocked them out.
Recent Record (Last two years)
Pakistan
Pakistan have been poor recently, winning only 8 of their last 17 games in the past 2 years. However, since a change in captaincy, Pakistan's fortunes have turned better
India
They have won 4 matches while losing the other 4. It is not a great record, but then, neither is Pakistan's. However, Yuvraj's return will lift the side.
Key Players
Pakistan
Saeed Ajmal
A lovely off spinner with a beautiful doosra and a hard to read teesra. Confounding the best Indian batsman, Tendulkar in the WC was one of his biggest moments. A great record in this format means he will be key
Gul
While Ajmal is always good, it is important which Gul turns up at the Warmup game. If it is the lethargic one, he'll go at 10 an over. If a roaring and ready to go Gul comes out, Pakistan will have 8 safe overs out of 20, which assures that the team will not get to a huge target
Kamran Akmal
He can change the game with the bat and with the gloves. A good performance by him can take the game away from India
Shahid Afridi
As unlikely as it is, a sparkling batting performance can turn games. Steady bowler too.
India
Kohli
A gem of a batsman that can turn the game around in a flash. Technically sound, he has already bullied this Pakistan attack in the Asia Cup. Pakistan must dismiss him early
Dhoni and Raina
Fantastic finishers that can turn a par score of 150 to 180. Pakistan must be wary of letting them score too many too quickly.
Yuvraj
The man who might be the biggest person responsible for India's journey in the WC. A more than useful bowler and a huge hitter, it will be interesting to see how he comes back from cancer.
Conclusion
On Paper, Pakistan is stronger. However, in an India-Pakistan game, what matters in the end is whose nerves are better able to stand the pressure.
Going by overall history, one will back Pakistan. Seeing Pakistan's performances against India in World Cups though, one shall be tempted to lay their bet on India.