Analysis: 1992 is the Last Time a Subcontinental Team Won the World Cup in SENA, or Vice-Versa

[Thunderbolt14]

It is well known that in recent years, there is a significant home advantage bias to countries in the World Cup: in fact, the last 3 teams to win have been the host nation (India, Australia, and England).

I decided to delve further into this statistic. Even if we go back to the GOAT Aussie team that achieved a hat trick of victories across 1999, 2003, and 2007, the first two came in England and South Africa while the 2007 win came in the West Indies. In fact, 1987 is the last time Australia conquered the subcontinent in the Men’s ODI World Cup, winning a closely contested match against England at Eden Gardens, Kolkata after strong contenders and host nations India and Pakistan were knocked out earlier.

That is to say, no SENA team has won the world cup in the subcontinent ever since - 1996 and 2011, while no subcontinent team has won in SENA - 1999, 2003, 2015, and 2019.

1992, Pakistan’s victory in Australia, is the last instance of an anomaly. For better or worse, this does point to a significant conditions advantage in cricket, which has implications on the fairness of the event and begs the question to think about home advantages.

The same point is further illustrated by the fact that the last team to reach the Men’s ODI World Cup finals from the SENA vs subcontinent category is India in South Africa, 2003, preceded by Pakistan in England, 1999. Skipping over the world cup in the West Indies, both finalists in 2011 (Sri Lanka and India), 2015 (Australia and New Zealand), and 2019 (England and New Zealand) belonged to the same category. By 2023 and even perhaps beyond depending on the results of the tournament, this will have marked 20 years without anomaly.

Cross-examining this information, we must also give credit to Australia, Pakistan, and India for their fights in foreign conditions from 1996-2003. They played exceedingly well given the circumstances. But a darkened shadow of clouds loom ahead for us all — with a supreme India about to host the 2023 World Cup, the question stands astute.

Will the conditions advantage ever be broken?

 

[Slog]

1999 to 2007 Australia would have won the WC in any condition. Even in 1996 they were at start of journey and got all the way to the final so few years later would have won. They were also winning pretty much every ODI series in subcontinent at that time too.

There is an argument that 2011, 2015 and 2019 WC winners may not have won in overseas conditions.

 

[Ab Fan]

Yes,there is home advantage.

New Zealand co-hosted the WC'15 with Australia and reached the finals which was played in Melbourne.

 

[Slog]

Yes,there is home advantage.

New Zealand co-hosted the WC'15 with Australia and reached the finals which was played in Melbourne.

apart from handful the hosts always go into the deep end

2019 - yes
2015 - both did
2011 - 3 did
2007 - nope
1996 - 2 host reached semi and other eliminated by a host in QF
1992 - 1 host semi
1987 - both hosts semi

 

[Thunderbolt14]

1999 to 2007 Australia would have won the WC in any condition. Even in 1996 they were at start of journey and got all the way to the final so few years later would have won. They were also winning pretty much every ODI series in subcontinent at that time too.

There is an argument that 2011, 2015 and 2019 WC winners may not have won in overseas conditions.

I have tried to keep my analysis objective and stats-focused.

If we want to come to personal opinion, I do not think Australia could have won 1999 if they were playing against Pakistan in Lahore the same way India 2011 played their final in Mumbai, Australia 2015 in Melbourne, or England 2019 at Lord’s.

I do agree with you about the Australia in 2003 and 2007 though, no team, nowhere could have assailed those victories though commendable efforts from India and Sri Lanka. In fact India might have edged it in 2003 if they were playing in Eden Gardens or Mumbai, instead of in South Africa, against even that Aussie side.

But my point stands regardless - there is a significant conditions advantage, which goes beyond just “home advantage”. It is actually more than that: it is a “SENA advantage” and a “subcontinent advantage”. It is a subtle distinction, but it is a big, big deal given how consistent this streak is.

It will have been 31 years between 1992 and 2023. Assuming a subcontinental team wins in 2023, it will have been 35 years between 1992-2027 since a victory other than SENA in SENA and subcontinent in subcontinent.

To me, this speaks volumes.

 

[Mesozoic]

England will end that in 2023.

 

[Thunderbolt14]

England will end that in 2023.

Sarcasm or serious? They won’t hold up against the spin

 

[Nikhil_cric]

I have tried to keep my analysis objective and stats-focused.

If we want to come to personal opinion, I do not think Australia could have won 1999 if they were playing against Pakistan in Lahore the same way India 2011 played their final in Mumbai, Australia 2015 in Melbourne, or England 2019 at Lord’s.

I do agree with you about the Australia in 2003 and 2007 though, no team, nowhere could have assailed those victories though commendable efforts from India and Sri Lanka. In fact India might have edged it in 2003 if they were playing in Eden Gardens or Mumbai, instead of in South Africa, against even that Aussie side.

But my point stands regardless - there is a significant conditions advantage, which goes beyond just “home advantage”. It is actually more than that: it is a “SENA advantage” and a “subcontinent advantage”. It is a subtle distinction, but it is a big, big deal given how consistent this streak is.

It will have been 31 years between 1992 and 2023. Assuming a subcontinental team wins in 2023, it will have been 35 years between 1992-2027 since a victory other than SENA in SENA and subcontinent in subcontinent.

To me, this speaks volumes.

Australia had just beaten Pakistan 3-0 in a bilateral series in pakistan a few months earlier.

 

[King_Kohli]

Sarcasm or serious? They won’t hold up against the spin

Their ODI team is strong, most of them are playing spin very well.
IPL experience is additional advantage

 

[Mesozoic]

Sarcasm or serious? They won’t hold up against the spin

Have you watched ODIs in India in the last couple of years ?

Some no name Windies batters were smashing Kuldeep and chahal like club bowlers. Indian wickets are not "spin friendly" anymore in white ball cricket.

Yeah it may take turn in the latter part of ten tournament, but I think England are okay. They're not as bad as Aus or SAF.

 

[OldWarHorse]

Sarcasm or serious? They won’t hold up against the spin

More than spin, it will be the slowness of the tracks and ball not coming on which will affect them. Its a different ball game altogether if the pitches are made so, dry and slow. The SC teams can choke most batting attacks in those conditions.