Donal Cozzie
ODI Debutant
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[MENTION=4930]Yossarian[/MENTION] [MENTION=7774]Robert[/MENTION] [MENTION=44089]Eagle_Eye[/MENTION] [MENTION=1842]James[/MENTION] @Donal_Cozzie
So the cat is out of the bag - David Davis admits this morning on Marr his aim is for a "Canada plus plus plus" trade deal. Michel Barnier's leaked memo last month also hints at a Canadian-style FTA (with no further inducements thereby ruling out Davis's non-defined "pluses"), so we are willing to endure years of struggle for a deal WORSE than existing arrangements.
Let's be clear what Canada's arrangement is. It does not significantly reduce non-tariff barriers (these barriers are far more relevant in today's world than tariffs which are already low) such as EU rules of origin requirements.
CETA does NOT guarantee Canadian firms an EU financial services "passport" which is significant for the UK economy that's heavily reliant on the financial sector. I wonder how the City of London who bankroll the Tory Party will react when presented with such a deal ! A Canadian-style FTA would not offer the same level of access to EU markets for UK businesses as our membership of the Single Market and Customs Union enables.
Now I can already hear the Leavers' cry "But Britain would get a better FTA due to its size and proximity etc" - what makes one think the EU would undermine its own Single Market and Customs Union by giving Britain a more favourable agreement ?! What incentive would the EU have to strike such a deal given it would be license for other third countries to tear up their own deals with the EU, and they've already warned the EU not to give Britain a more preferential arrangement.
The upside is that Canada doesn't have to sign up to Freedom of Movement, but are the British so steeped in their hatred of the sight of immigrants that they'd be willing to incur the economic damage of such an inadequate deal ? Theresa May has only herself to blame by ruling out continued membership of the Single Market and Customs Union - a sensible Norway/Switzerland-style deal that would respect the outcome of the referendum but protect our economy thus ending this saga tomorrow.
Brexiters and the UK Gov seem to be claiming that in the event of no deal Britain can diverge from EU rules, despite this completely contradicting the agreement just signed.
One growing and gargantuan mess. Whole thing should have been scrapped after Davis himself admitted not one impact study was carried out. Such baffling incompetence