Brexit - BIG Irish border problem between Ireland and Northern Ireland (part of the UK)

[Yossarian]

My take on this Irish / UK / EU / Brexit problem.

To summarise, this was always going to be a major sticking point vis-a-vis Brexit. Unfortunately, due to Brexiteers ignorance as regards the practicalities of international trade and tariffs, they brushed it off as scaremongering whenever the topic came up.

Some background.

After the Good Friday peace agreement, and the fact that both the UK and Ireland were in the EU, meaning Customs Union, Free Trade, and free movement of people and goods, all border posts, customs controls etc were abolished and the personnel removed. People and goods could go back and forth as they wished, like going from one town to another in the same country. And they do.

After Brexit

Unless the UK and EU reach agreement on a Customs Union (unlikely!) there is the possibility that with the UK making it's own trade agreements with the likes of the USA, India, China etc, and with no border controls, US beef, Australian lamb, Chinese steel and Indian cars could be imported into Belfast (Northern Ireland), sent an hour down the road to Dundalk (in Ireland which is still in the EU) and exported tariff-free to France, Germany or any other EU country.”
ie A back-door into the EU, bypassing EU Customs, EU tariffs, and most importantly EU regulations and Standards.

Without a Customs Union agreement between the EU and the UK, there are only 3 options to solve the problem.

1. Electronic checks - Unworkable (how do you check a Northern Irish farmer moving his cows to Ireland via dirt track/road or through fields, and then shipping them (or their meat) off to be sold in the EU? Or moving the aforementioned US beef in a similar manner?

2. Reimpose a border between the Northern Ireland and Ireland


Apart from breaking the Good Friday peace agreement and risking resuming the Northern Irish conflict, the question of moving cows/meat through country roads and over fields still applies. Unless you also start fencing it all.

3. Let Northern Ireland remain being part of the EU, and make the Irish sea the border between both parts of Ireland and the rest of the UK.

Apart from the DUP (the Northern Irish party helping to keep the Tories in power) not accepting that deal, it would mean the beginning of Northern Ireland separating from the UK. So not acceptable.

The Tories and Brexiteers (those that now understand the issues) are in a fix.

Discuss

[MENTION=7774]Robert[/MENTION], [MENTION=1842]James[/MENTION], [MENTION=136108]Donal Cozzie[/MENTION]

 

[Pakistanian]

Just give it back to Ireland, it's occupied land.

 

[Yossarian]

Just give it back to Ireland, it's occupied land.

You obviously don't understand the historical background as to why it's separate from the rest of Ireland, what were the IRA, Sinn Fein, the UDA, the UVF and the general Northern Ireland conflict all about. Lets just say that its as complex, maybe even more so, than the Kashmir and Palestinian/Israeli issues.

 

[Donal Cozzie]

As somebody who lives on one of the border counties on the Republic side (Cavan) there is only one solution, the other two are simply not possible.

A sea border.

The Irish border does not exist. It cannot exist. At present dozens if not hundreds of farmers have land which crosses the border dozens of times. Not only that but countless businesses north and south rely on each other to function and survive. Additionally thousands of people live in one territory and work in another. The border has hundreds of small country roads passing through it. The British Army at the height of the conflict tried to seal it, checkpoints, fences even mines if I'm not mistaken. Didn't work, while the main roads were secured, locals constantly removed barriers in the country ones and smuggling was rampant. Not only that but countless lakes require a 10 minute boat trip to reach the opposing side in another country.

The only way you even know you've crossed is when shops display prices in pounds (in border areas in NI its very common for stores to take euros and pounds) and when speeds are displayed in mph instead of kph.

As youve pointed out Yossarian its absolutely unacceptable for the EU to allow goods be smuggled through this porous border, so they wont allow it to happen. Ireland as an EU member also have a veto over accepting the terms of Brexit (all 28 states musz consent for it to pass) so any proposal that allows a border wont pass, Ireland have been very clear on this, even today meetings took place between Boris and Coveney (our foreign minister) and Varadkar and May, where we reiterated flatly we wont allow a border to return. This isnt even Irelands problem to solve, the UK were the ones who created this mess, which is why its so hilarious that in proposing NI remain in the EU CU we'Ve already proposed more concrete plans than the UK have with regards to this issue.

As for electronic scanning lol, not even possible so thats a pipe dream.

Either Brexit wont happen or NI will stay in the Customs Union. NI voted 56 percent to Remain as well, the farmers in NI in particular are heavily reliant on EU grants so its absolutely hilarious to watch a party of small minded sectarian bigots such as the DUP unwillingly advance the cause of a United Ireland so much without even meaning to, then burying their heads in the sand as a consequence. There's a reason for the first time ever there exists no Unionist majority in Stormont. Sure for now they can be content by propping up the current shambles of a UK government, but that wont last very long and after that I cant see them faring particularly well, particularly when NI's increasing Catholic population and the RHI scandal come into play, plus the DUP'S general bigotry.

Its sad really, NI is a very delicate situation and imperialism, idiocy and triumphalism have poked it and tensions are always waiting to bubble up again.

So to summarise Yossarian, technically the three options you listed exist, but in reality only one can be implemented. All sides know this, IMO they'Re just trying to look defiant publicly before the UK cave and allow some concessions, particularly when you consider the majority of people on the mainland UK see NI as nothing more than an embarrassment and problem child.

 

[Yossarian]

So to summarise Yossarian, technically the three options you listed exist, but in reality only one can be implemented. All sides know this, IMO they'Re just trying to look defiant publicly before the UK cave and allow some concessions, particularly when you consider the majority of people on the mainland UK see NI as nothing more than an embarrassment and problem child.

The OP is basically my attempt to summarise (for ignorant Brexiteers) what you have now laid out in more detail. So we're on the same page.

As to the 3 options, you know it and I know it, that by having the Irish sea as the border, the UK Government is basically accepting the separation of NI from the rest of the UK.
And that is not going to happen as long as the Tories are in power propped up by the UDP.

Since this can't happen for the reason stated, the only other viable option, short of the UK not leaving the EU is for the UK to have a Customs Union agreement between the EU and the UK.

A Customs Union agreement basically means that there is no need to bring back border controls since goods could freely be moved back and forth between the North and South. As for people movement, that would still be possible under the Common Travel Area (CTA) agreement. ie everything remains as is.
The stumbling block to this approach is that a Customs Union between the UK and the EU would mean that the UK could not sign separate tariff deals with other countries - one of the main points of Brexit!
So thats also out!

And we both agree that electronic checks do not solve the problem of country roads etc.
And thats also out!


And lastly, if the UK walks away from the EU with a "no deal", what then? Utter chaos and complete disaster!

This is why the EU is insisting upon a solution to the NI problem before moving onto any other negotiations.

 

[Eagle_Eye]

for Ireland...... let's put brexitoff the table then.What nonsense.

If they don't want to make a special for NI then Ireland is free to erecting barriers and check point if it wants.

Keep calm and carry on.

 

[Yossarian]

for Ireland...... let's put brexitoff the table then.What nonsense.

If they don't want to make a special for NI then Ireland is free to erecting barriers and check point if it wants.

Keep calm and carry on.

Further Brexiteer ignorance being spouted. Obviously didn't comprehend either the OP, or more importantly, the detailed explanation of the situation by [MENTION=136108]Donal Cozzie[/MENTION], an Irsihman living not far from the Irish border. Do you understand what's behind the Good Friday agreement? And how it brought to an end the decades long conflict in Northern Ireland that is part of the UK? And the ramifications on the Good Friday agreement and peace in NI if barriers and checkpoints start being erected again?
Thought not!

 

[Robert]

Ok let us assume a Hard Brexit. Ulster is out of the Customs Union and Single Market.

As [MENTION=136108]Donal Cozzie[/MENTION] says, the only way to make this work is move the border to the ports. Goods inbound to Ulster will have to pay import tariffs. Goods inbound for the Republic will not.

But that won’t work as anyone in Ulster can ask their mate in the Republic to pick up tariff-free goods for them and walk across a field into Ulster with it.

So smuggling would have to be policed by U.K. Border Force staff on the back roads and the lakes. Which would look to Republicans like “Cromwell’s men are here again.”

Unless UKBF just turns a blind eye.

Gawd help us. What a mess.

 

[Robert]

Either Brexit wont happen or NI will stay in the Customs Union.

OK, good so far.

But then Scotland will want to stay in the CU (and maybe the SM) too.

Then England and Wales will want to when they see the price of food spike.

Let's just join EFTA and have done with it.

 

[Donal Cozzie]

The OP is basically my attempt to summarise (for ignorant Brexiteers) what you have now laid out in more detail. So we're on the same page.

As to the 3 options, you know it and I know it, that by having the Irish sea as the border, the UK Government is basically accepting the separation of NI from the rest of the UK.
And that is not going to happen as long as the Tories are in power propped up by the UDP.

Since this can't happen for the reason stated, the only other viable option, short of the UK not leaving the EU is for the UK to have a Customs Union agreement between the EU and the UK.

A Customs Union agreement basically means that there is no need to bring back border controls since goods could freely be moved back and forth between the North and South. As for people movement, that would still be possible under the Common Travel Area (CTA) agreement. ie everything remains as is.
The stumbling block to this approach is that a Customs Union between the UK and the EU would mean that the UK could not sign separate tariff deals with other countries - one of the main points of Brexit!
So thats also out!

And we both agree that electronic checks do not solve the problem of country roads etc.
And thats also out!


And lastly, if the UK walks away from the EU with a "no deal", what then? Utter chaos and complete disaster!

This is why the EU is insisting upon a solution to the NI problem before moving onto any other negotiations.

What can the DUP do though?

The only thing they hate more than Irishness is Corbyn, they stated they'd do anything to prevent him winning the last election hence their deal with the Tories. What would they gain by collapsing the UK Government and triggering another election, one which would almost certainly hand Corbyn a win??

Additionally as I stated, NI didnt even vote for Brexit, so they'd be continuing to alienate their own electorate (not that they mind that tbf).

The other two options are simply not possible, a sea border is difficult for the UK but possible and as I said before, overwhelming majority of the UK, who dont give a damn about NI, would probably take it if it meant getting their Brexit, even though it'd effectively mean splitting the UK up.

My opinion is, they will play tough for while to appease the hardcore brexiters, eventually accept that NI issue is not practical to solve, ergo let it stay in the Customs Union. Most people in NI would be delighted with this since they never wanted to leave in the first place, so no issues there aside from the usual layabout yobs who created the fleg debacle marching for a week or two until they get tired. The DUP would then face their own unsolveable conundrum, accept this move even though it goes against everything they stand for politically but remain in UK Government or break down the Government at which point the UK electorate will have the decision of voting Conservative and accepting the proposed Brexit deal or vote Corbyn for a change and potentially no Brexit. If the former occurs then zero change, border remains at sea. If the latter occurs then the DUP return to a NI without a functioning government, where they are returning their worst results in history in the general elections, where a now Labour UK Government with direct rule will then almost certainly legislate for an Irish Language Act, Same sex marriage etc issues the DUP are strongly opposed on and unlike now the DUP have absolutely no leverage with which to influence the Direct Rule Government on.

Both the DUP and the UK are between a rock and a hard place, and its entirely self created. Baffling.

 

[Donal Cozzie]

OK, good so far.

But then Scotland will want to stay in the CU (and maybe the SM) too.

Then England and Wales will want to when they see the price of food spike.

Let's just join EFTA and have done with it.

I read an article on derspiegel.de in German yesterday on this.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausla...d-nordirland-in-der-eu-bleiben-a-1178059.html

Main jist of it.

Create a British federal state, unlike the Union which currently exists.

This allows NI and Scotland to remain, while England and Wales get their Brexit

Not easy to do, but possible and EU have shown flexibility in the past i.e Greenland and the Faroes despite being governed by Denmark are economically outside the EU,despite having free movement and the other benefits of membership, Rather these two islands are part of an economic zone with Iceland.

Greenland voted to leave the EU in 1982, but in 1985 the EU made them an "associated territory", granting them free movement etc while not being economically affiliated with the EU, while Denmark remained unaffected.

A federal state would require borders between NI Scotland and Wales England to work. For NI the sea does this job, for Scotland Hadrians Wall was proposed in the article as being the new customs border between Scotland and the rest of GB.

This whole situation is such a shambles really.

 

[Yossarian]

Gawd help us. What a mess.

Both the DUP and the UK are between a rock and a hard place, and its entirely self created. Baffling.

Yep. And to cap it all, hard Brexiteers are talking about simply walking way with nothing agreed, "No deal is a bad deal". What happens then from 11:00:01 pm 29th March 2019 onwards?

 

[Yossarian]

Greenland voted to leave the EU in 1982, but in 1985 the EU made them an "associated territory", granting them free movement etc while not being economically affiliated with the EU, while Denmark remained unaffected.

Brexiteers / Kippers don't want free movement. In fact it's probably the single biggest reason for them voting for Brexit, because for them 'free movement' means unfettered immigration from Poland, Romania and other parts of Eastern Europe..

 

[irfan]

alternative is to run custom checks etc between the whole of Ireland and rest of EU and the cost to be borne by UK.

 

[Donal Cozzie]

alternative is to run custom checks etc between the whole of Ireland and rest of EU and the cost to be borne by UK.

Yeah lets compromise Irelands sovereignty, economy and people so Sally from Hartlepool can get the Brexit she wanted as the Poles stole that Sainsbury's job she never applied for.

This is the worst solution yet lol. How do you quantify the cost? The UK probably wouldnt even be able to afford the tens of billions required to even come close to paying the damage this would do to the Irish economy, not to mention why the hell would Ireland or the EU even allow this to occur.

 

[Shutdown Corner]

I didnt understand any of this, lol.

Donal, why is NI split from Ireland? Are they protestant? Or is it purely political (like East vs W Germany) rather than a religious (West Bengal vs Bangladesh or Punjab Pakistan vs Punjab India) one?

 

[Wasim_Waqar]

Time for Ireland to be united!

 

[Robert]

I didnt understand any of this, lol.

Donal, why is NI split from Ireland? Are they protestant? Or is it purely political (like East vs W Germany) rather than a religious (West Bengal vs Bangladesh or Punjab Pakistan vs Punjab India) one?

Catholic Ireland was ruled by the British since the late twelfth century.

Many Scottish Protestants were brought over in the late seventeenth century and settled in Ulster in the north.

During WW1, when most of the Army was in France, Irish resistance fighters rose up. By 1919 Sinn Fein won a landslide election victory and declared a Free State. Guerilla war rumbled on for two years until a truce was called. London would not accept the Free State entire, and Partitioned the country so that six counties in the north remained part of the U.K.

Various abuses of Catholics followed. British troops were sent into NI in 1968 I believe, to try to keep the peace. A resurgent IRA and Protestant paramilitaries carried on bombing campaigns until all was sorted out in the Good Friday Agreement. The Republic renounced its claim on the six counties and peace broke out.

 

[Donal Cozzie]

I didnt understand any of this, lol.

Donal, why is NI split from Ireland? Are they protestant? Or is it purely political (like East vs W Germany) rather than a religious (West Bengal vs Bangladesh or Punjab Pakistan vs Punjab India) one?

I didnt understand any of this, lol.

Donal, why is NI split from Ireland? Are they protestant? Or is it purely political (like East vs W Germany) rather than a religious (West Bengal vs Bangladesh or Punjab Pakistan vs Punjab India) one?

This is gonna be a lonnggg post OK, you've been warned.

Spoiler

The conflict does traditionally fall along religious lines, with the Catholic natives being Republicans who want a united Ireland and Protestant planters being Unionists who want to remain connected to their ancestral home, however its a very lazy generalisation to make to say its purely Catholic vs Protestant, not to mention doing so would do a tremendous disservice to the many Protestants throughout Irish history who firmly believed in independence or home rule. and who played a vital role in us getting there. The conflict is more of a political one with religious elements.

To begin with, Ireland officially became a British colony or territory around the 12th century. Ireland was four kingdoms at the time, each one with a border following the current borders we have today between the four provinces, Ulster, Connaught, Leinster and Munster. There was one King who ruled above these kingdoms but for all extents and purposes Ireland back then was like Game of Thrones today, lots of families and clans squabbling amongst each other and raiding etc.

Funnily enough the British were invited over technically. Diarmuid MacMorrough was essentially booted off of the throne of the Kingdom of Leinster around the 12th century and fled to England where he asked the Normans for help, offering the Norman chief Strongbow his daughter if he could win him back the throne of his former province. Well Strongbow came and decided he wanted all of Ireland instead lol.

So basically for three or four hundred years following this the ruling British constantly had to deal with raids, clan feuds and the like as well as several outright rebellions against foreign rule. Essentially Britain ruled Ireland, but outside of Dublin (Or The Pale as it was known then) they had zero control as the original Norman invaders became Irish themselves as they settled, married and the later generations followed and pillaged and raided the British control locations. At some point the British got fed up of this and decided to launch the plantations and actually control Ireland.

There were 3 if I'm not mistaken. Munster Plantation, Laois-Offaly plantation and the Ulster one (we'll get to this one).

So the first two both failed but the aim was the same. Boot out the local "savages", replace them with British folk who would be paid and promised land and estates for going and maintaining the land and erasing the local culture. The first two failed as the British essentially brought the settlers over and didnt protect them, the locals simply rose up and took the land back or if that didnt happen the British settlers hired the locals they displaced to maintain the land due to lack of actual settlers who went to Ireland and over time married and became local themselves (what happened the Normans basically) Certain Irish towns were renamed at the time (Portlaois became Queenstown etc, reverted back to Portlaois following the Plantation) but ultimately these experiments at erasing Irelands past failed.

Its worth noting the first two efforts because only one Plantation ever became successful and thats the Ulster one. The British learned from the mistakes the third time around and when the Ulster Plantation was launched in the early 17th century there were many soldiers posted to protect the settlers (or planters as they were known) and many walled towns were constructed to stave off attacks from the local displaced Irish (Virginia in my county being one example of a Plantation town which still exists today, albeit without the walls). So what happened here is the indigenous folk tried to regain the land but failed, the settlers were successful.

At this stage in time all the clan chiefs in Ireland essentially banded together seeing that this Plantation was more successful but ultimately they failed, were defeated and in one of the most pivotal moments in Irish history the remaining chiefs of Ireland gathered together following the defeat and left the country in exile, known as the Flight of the Earls this essentially ended the ancient Celtic or Gaelic method of living in the country.

You may be wondering why I'm waffling on. Well

1) I'm bored, so why not go in depth
2) Its very important to go all the way back if you want to understand the NI conflict of today, because this "us vs them" mentality which developed among both sides all the way back in the 1600s is very much alive and well today, if anything its even stronger.

So essentially if we skip ahead a few hundred years, Ireland continuously had minor revolts and uprisings but they were all badly planned and failed miserably (United Irishmen Revolt in 1798 being one). However unlike the rest of Ireland which was dirt poor, Ulster was relatively prosperous. It had the best land in the country, had a massive linen trade IIRC and the shipyards in Belfast where the Titanic would eventually be constructed were amongst the best in the world at the time. However the rest of Ireland outside Dublin was extremely poor. The Famine (which I shall hereby refer to as the Hunger because IMO it was more of a genocide than anything, but I digress) didnt affect Ulster at all really, it was the West in particular which was decimated. So to shorten it, Ulster, the majority of the people living there having descended from the Scottish people who were brought over by the British to colonise the area 300 years prior, recognised themselves as British, not Irish, were Protestant or Presbyterian, not Catholic and were fairly prosperous. So already you see a division opening. Rest of Ireland - impoverished, catholic, fiercely angry vs Ulster prosperous, protestant, british identity.

To skip on, in 1921 following the War of Independence Ireland for the first time ever became split as out of 9 counties of Ulster, the six which were most "planted" so to speak didnt want to cut links with the UK and they wanted to remain a member of the UK as they had been relatively prosperous, whereas obviously the rest of Ireland suffered tremendously. So its a siege mentality really, they were the only people on the island to have this opinion so they fought like hell for it. Not only this but a lot of people in Ulster were extremely religious and Presbyterianism is about as extreme as Christianity gets, so that didnt help. They saw Catholicism as backwards and corrupted and under no circumstances wanted to be left behind in a United Ireland where the overwhelming majority were Catholic. They wanted to remain in a British Protestant state and so threatened to rebel against the Queen if they were not allowed remain in the UK.

The British knew full well if they simply cut off all of Ulster (which is 9 counties, including mine) that that would not succeed because the Protestant Unionists would be outnumbered by the indigenous Irish Catholic Republicans (or Nationalists). They set out from the beginning to create an artificial statelet or to put it bluntly as it was described by the Unionists themselves "A Protestant state for a Protestant people". Thats why the six most "settled" counties were used and not all 9.


Now picture this. Northern Ireland is just created. Its probably got a 70% Unionist and 30% Nationalist split. It could have worked but sadly Northern Ireland up to 2000 was a prime example of the British Government creating and assisting absolute misery.

To put it bluntly, the IRA obviously following independence for the southern part of Ireland saw the six counties of Ulster still under British rule and said " we arent having that" and started launching campaigns to win back the territory. They failed, miserably, and in the late 50's the IRA (the ones who won Irish independence, not the terrorists who would emerge later) actually disbanded.

However life as an Irishman in NI in those days was akin to being a person of colour in the US. Every aspect of NI as a state and NI as a society was geared towards oppressing the Irish at every turn. To give an example, Derry is NI's second largest city. Its also largely Nationalist. The British engineered (or gerrymandered) democracy in Derry so that the 40,000 or so Nationalist votes would return 8 councillors whereas the 20,000 Unionist votes would return 12, ensuring the state continued treating the Irish like trash. This occurred in every single constituency.

The police force was virtually all Unionist and they revelled in beating the Nationalists. Peaceful protests were attacked, locals were burned out of their homes (Battle of the Bogside resulted in the greatest mass migration of people since Jews fled the Nazis) and nothing was done about it, or it was organised the carried out by the police themselves. In order to vote you needed to own property something the Unionists had no issue with as they were descendants of the planters, but the Nationalists were much poorer so often owned nothing. They couldnt vote. Housing authorities were biased against Nationalists, in Dungannon a famous case emerged were a young Catholic Nationalist family of five were rejected for a three bedroom home which was instead granted to the single 19 year old secretary of the local Unionist politician. It later emerged that in 43 years not one Nationalist had been given a home despite it being a majority Nationalist area. This is the sort of discrimination you had to deal with. No voting rights, no property rights, no chance of finding a job, the government who you turn to for help are the ones actively carrying out these actions and if you complained you had the crap kicked out of you by the police.

It was in this environment of hopelessness that the Provisional IRA was formed and began a bombing campaign which would cause untold misery for all, while the majority of Nationalists marched peacefully for equal rights (NICRA were a famous organisation) only to be set upon by the police once again. On the opposing side the Unionists formed their own terror groups such as the UDA or UVF who mostly murdered innocent Catholics or Nationalists indiscriminantly.

This continued for twenty years until the Good Friday Agreement was signed, and in 2007 for the first time ever Nationalists and Unionists governed jointly and thats basically where we are today.

Apologies for waffling on a lot, but to summarise farrrr more briefly

. Ulster was planted by the British, those settlers viewed themselves as British, not Irish, mistrusted locals from the get go and were fiercely religious.
. Rest of Ireland was miserable
- When independence came, the settlers didnt want to join a United Ireland so threatened violence unless the British kept them in the UK.
. This happened, Northern Ireland was founded. Was ran solely by Unionists up until power sharing in 2007 who proceeded to treat Nationalists about as bad as possible. Overall NI was a disgusting, artificial sectarian statelet where human rights violations were rampant
- This led to the IRA reforming, which led to the Unionist groupd forming and about 30 years of terrorism, hate and suffering up until the Good Friday Agreement
. We're now in 2017, Unionists have suffered dwindling elections results continuously since power sharing began. All demographics point towards an ensuing Catholic majority, which will benefit the Nationalist parties hugely who have experienced continuously growing election results.

Robert has just done a good summary too. All in all its a fairly sad situation all round, countless atrocities on all sides.

 

[Yossarian]

I didnt understand any of this, lol.

Donal, why is NI split from Ireland? Are they protestant? Or is it purely political (like East vs W Germany) rather than a religious (West Bengal vs Bangladesh or Punjab Pakistan vs Punjab India) one?

OK let me summarise it a manner, albet slightly different to [MENTION=7774]Robert[/MENTION] and [MENTION=136108]Donal Cozzie[/MENTION], that you can understand and relate to.

Ireland as a whole is overwhelmingly Catholic. However, 6 counties in the north have sizeable Protestant populations, in somes cases more than Catholics living there.

When Ireland became independent, the Protestants wished to remain in the UK and not as a minority in Catholic majority independed Ireland.

So Britain kept the 6 northern counties with sizeable Protestant populations, grouped them together, called it Northern Ireland and made it part of the UK. The rest (the majority) became independent Ireland.

Many Catholic families were split between the two (Just like Kasmir).

The Catholics that were still left in Northern Ireland (not far under 50% of the population) felt being discriminated against, and wanted to be part of Ireland, with all of Ireland united again as one Ireland (just like Kashmiris wanting a united Kashmir).

The Protestants and the British Government were against this. When the Catholics complained/demonstrated, they were treated badly. So some of them resorted to violent means (terrorism - IRA). The British Government sent in the Army to fight the IRA. Some of the Protestants also retaliated with their own terrorism against the Catholics.

This went on for decades. With many killings, bombings in Northern Ireland, as well as major bomb blasts in mainland UK cities like Birmingham, Manchester and London as well as other cities.

This was all brought to an end with the Good Friday peace agreement in 1998. This included removing all border posts, all border fences, all customs and border checks between Ireland and Northern Ireland - ie everything normally associated with a border between two countries being removed. This allowed people and goods to move back and forth freely. People can live on one side but work and go to school on the other. Farmers can move their cows and other livestock back and forth as they wish.

Brexit (as per the explanation in the OP) will stop that from happening if there is no agreement between the EU and the UK. The options are as per the OP.

Furthermore, the Good Friday peace agreement becomes (partly) meaningless unless people and goods can move freely. But they can't after Brexit without some sort of new agreement as outlined. Else, most likely, conflict resumes and terrorism resumes.

 

[Robert]

Ireland could unite over this. The Ulster loyalists are going to wonder why the U.K. stitched them up over Brexit, and could decide to throw in with Dublin. What do you reckon [MENTION=136108]Donal Cozzie[/MENTION]?

 

[Yossarian]

Ireland could unite over this. The Ulster loyalists are going to wonder why the U.K. stitched them up over Brexit, and could decide to throw in with Dublin. What do you reckon [MENTION=136108]Donal Cozzie[/MENTION]?

Sure they will. And pigs will fly.

 

[Robert]

Sure they will. And pigs will fly.

Pigs have been flying since the Good Friday Agreement.

 

[Donal Cozzie]

Ireland could unite over this. The Ulster loyalists are going to wonder why the U.K. stitched them up over Brexit, and could decide to throw in with Dublin. What do you reckon [MENTION=136108]Donal Cozzie[/MENTION]?

It may happen, but it wil be despite the Ulster Loyalists not because of them

Ulster Loyalism is a very strange pure form of hatred. They would happily burn NI to the ground as opposed to joining with those "taigs" as they call them. An extreme form of identity crisis, they have no culture, no language no nothing, their existence was created on subjugating the locals and thats how it continued, hence the human rights abuses of the 20th century. They are caught now on a sinking ship. The mainland UK and rest of the world sees them as Irish, mainland UK doesnt care about them, slowly but surely they're losing their grip on power in the North, the demographics are shifting and their "culture" is being exposed for the bigotry it is.

Will Ireland unite? Ive always stated its only a matter of time. NI is too small to last forever, not to mention the demographics. I said before Brexit itd take a couple of decades but now I think its been sped up. The DUP are screwed either way here. Support Brexit get a hard border and watch NI's economy crumble entirely, dont support the inevitable decision to have a sea border/all island economy and hand a pro UI Corbyn an election win and lose their control over the current UK Government, with a Nationalist friendly Direct Rule from Labour to follow as Stormont is currently down.

I wont put a timeline on it as NI is sadly still a place where hatred goes deep. Anything could happen. One thing for sure though Brexit did more for the cause than any IRA bomb ever did.

Ultimately Loyalism is in its dying breaths, hence the furore every time anything in NI changes e-g the Flag in Belfast. They see it coming even if they wont admit to it.

Funny thing is Loyalsits could well prosper in a UI. Better economy for all and they'd have a fairly important role in government and could well end up in coalition governments if they wanted. But alas the hate runs deep as I said, they'd rather burn effigies of dead priests and black Celtic footballers every July.

 

[Eagle_Eye]

Project fear from Remoaners in full flow in this thread.
- does uk want a hard border- answer no. Who is going to impose one, EU. Here is a suggestion for the Irish, go and moan at the EU and fight for special dispensation for themselves.

Why the hell they think they are... asking the UK to compromise on its Soverignty so that they can have their cake and eat it.
Brexit is a reality that Remoaners must accept. A deal or no deal will be clearer much earlier than the deadline. O

 

[Donal Cozzie]

Project fear from Remoaners in full flow in this thread.

Im not a remoaner or a brexiter. Personally couldnt care what the mainland UK does.

- does uk want a hard border- answer no. Who is going to impose one, EU.

LOL. Err no mate. Wasnt the entire rhetoric of Brexit "taking back control" "control our borders".So you dont want to do that now? And no dont pass the buck on this by blaming the EU. I am far from the EU's biggest fan,
its got a lot of problems, but how can you blame them for a border? The UK voted to "take back control" so the EU is literally asking "OK you want out, how the hell do you solve the NI issue?" and the Brexiters are just bluffing and blubbering in response. A border is being imposed BECAUSE of Brexit, which the UK caused, ergo its the UK's responsibility to solve and it sure as hell aint the EU implementing it.

Here is a suggestion for the Irish, go and moan at the EU and fight for special dispensation for themselves.

Hahahaha no mate. We didnt vote for Brexit, ye did. Your problem to solve. If you dont solve it? No deal and economic disaster for the UK. Your move.

Why the hell they think they are... asking the UK to compromise on its Soverignty so that they can have their cake and eat it.

Now this is peak irony. You're refusing to solve the most blatant issue of Brexit, particularly amusing since ye WANTED to control your borders, and then accusing us of compromising UK sovereignty???? Absolutely brilliant stuff.

Brexit is a reality that Remoaners must accept. A deal or no deal will be clearer much earlier than the deadline. O

So basically you refuse to acknowledge Brexit and therefore the UK created this massive issue and rather than take control of it yous realise you dont have a clue HOW to solve it, and thus pass the buc on to us or expect us to screw ourselves for your benefit? Please mate. Ireland never voted for any of this, therefore if it goes against our interests we'll have no issues vetoing it. You and I both know we're playing a waiting game until the UK Government cave and accept a sea border, at which stage then the process can finally move on. Ireland aint gonna roll over on ths issue. Funny because this is the first time in history we actually have some leverage over the UK

This whole affair was summed up nicely in a comment I read yesterday

It’s like in a Maths exam where you skip Part 1 because you’ve no clue, in order to move onto the far more difficult Part 2. Problem is you need the answer from Part 1 for Part 2…
On top of that, you actually thought you had English Paper 2 today and don’t have your calculator.
Also you’re terrible at Maths.
And a knob.
Best of luck with it all, Boris.

Sooner the Brexiters realise that Ireland isnt gonna roll over and actually propose actual plans, while also trying not to rip up an internationally recognised peace agreement, sooner everyone can move on and try to salvage something

 

[Yossarian]

Project fear from Remoaners in full flow in this thread.
- does uk want a hard border- answer no. Who is going to impose one, EU. Here is a suggestion for the Irish, go and moan at the EU and fight for special dispensation for themselves.

Why the hell they think they are... asking the UK to compromise on its Soverignty so that they can have their cake and eat it.
Brexit is a reality that Remoaners must accept. A deal or no deal will be clearer much earlier than the deadline. O

As said previously, just like the vast majority of Brexiteers, you don't have a clue as to the practical, on the ground, ramification of Brexit, especially a "no deal is better than a bad deal deal mantra" car crash Brexit, whether that be over Northern Ireland, or on roll-on, roll-off container traffic through ports like Dover, or on those parts of industry with just-in-time integrated supply chains all over Europe ...etc ...etc. Oh well, car crash Brexit it is then.

 

[Cpt. Rishwat]

Yeah lets compromise Irelands sovereignty, economy and people so Sally from Hartlepool can get the Brexit she wanted as the Poles stole that Sainsbury's job she never applied for.

This made me laugh. I'm still utterly fascinated to see what London would look like if the Brexiteers got the capital they dreamed of.

 

[Markhor]

What can the DUP do though?

The only thing they hate more than Irishness is Corbyn, they stated they'd do anything to prevent him winning the last election hence their deal with the Tories. What would they gain by collapsing the UK Government and triggering another election, one which would almost certainly hand Corbyn a win??

Additionally as I stated, NI didnt even vote for Brexit, so they'd be continuing to alienate their own electorate (not that they mind that tbf).

The other two options are simply not possible, a sea border is difficult for the UK but possible and as I said before, overwhelming majority of the UK, who dont give a damn about NI, would probably take it if it meant getting their Brexit, even though it'd effectively mean splitting the UK up.

My opinion is, they will play tough for while to appease the hardcore brexiters, eventually accept that NI issue is not practical to solve, ergo let it stay in the Customs Union. Most people in NI would be delighted with this since they never wanted to leave in the first place, so no issues there aside from the usual layabout yobs who created the fleg debacle marching for a week or two until they get tired. The DUP would then face their own unsolveable conundrum, accept this move even though it goes against everything they stand for politically but remain in UK Government or break down the Government at which point the UK electorate will have the decision of voting Conservative and accepting the proposed Brexit deal or vote Corbyn for a change and potentially no Brexit. If the former occurs then zero change, border remains at sea. If the latter occurs then the DUP return to a NI without a functioning government, where they are returning their worst results in history in the general elections, where a now Labour UK Government with direct rule will then almost certainly legislate for an Irish Language Act, Same sex marriage etc issues the DUP are strongly opposed on and unlike now the DUP have absolutely no leverage with which to influence the Direct Rule Government on.

Both the DUP and the UK are between a rock and a hard place, and its entirely self created. Baffling.

The fact there is no functioning government in Stormont adds to the problem.

The Unionist leaders of Ulster have a supremacist, colonial mentality that's never been shed. But that was what Northern Ireland was set up to be - a state for Protestants run by Protestants. Even the majority they had, they systematically gerrymandered to retain it. For decades they fought to hang onto their privileges and heaven forbid the Catholics were given their due rights.

The fact is many real British folk view the Loyalists as an embarrassment. We don't want you, personally I have far more in common with an Irish Nationalist than I do with these "defenders of Ulster" who are currently preventing powersharing from being restored through their intransigence to accept an Irish Language Act.

 

[Donal Cozzie]

The fact there is no functioning government in Stormont adds to the problem.

The Unionist leaders of Ulster have a supremacist, colonial mentality that's never been shed. But that was what Northern Ireland was set up to be - a state for Protestants run by Protestants. Even the majority they had, they systematically gerrymandered to retain it. For decades they fought to hang onto their privileges and heaven forbid the Catholics were given their due rights.

The fact is many real British folk view the Loyalists as an embarrassment. We don't want you, personally I have far more in common with an Irish Nationalist than I do with these "defenders of Ulster" who are currently preventing powersharing from being restored through their intransigence to accept an Irish Language Act.

Exactly. Ultimately everybody knows this, even the Loyalist politicians themselves do. They just dont wanna accept it. End of the day as I said Unionism could well have a place in todays world if it adapted to modern times and expressed geuine reasons for remaining in the UK.

Alas all they do is whataboutery about the IRA, spout bigotry, resist change of any sort and embezzle themselves every chance they get. Plus the odd effigy.

Unionism made its choice when it allowed thugs like Bryson, Allister, Campbell etc to be its leadership, now it'll reap its rewards.

 

[Donal Cozzie]

The delicious irony of the DUP's refusal to adopt the mainland UK's stance on language recognition and same sex marriage being used to call for a sea border is just hilarious

Its coming!

Brussels' chief Brexit negotiator has made the case for Northern Ireland remaining in the European Union customs union after Britain leaves the EU, to solve a deadlock in talks over the Irish border.

Michel Barnier said there were already over 100 areas where Northern Ireland implemented special rules to harmonise with the Republic and argued that Brexit called for a "specific solution" to "unique circumstances".

Speaking at a think-tank in Brussels the senior EU official said "those who wanted Brexit" must come up with solutions to solve the conundrums it had created.

"We need to preserve stability and dialogue on the island of Ireland. We need to avoid a hard border. I know that this point is politically sensitive in the UK, it is not less sensitive in Ireland," he told an audience at the Centre for European Reform.

"Some in the UK say that specific rules in Northern Ireland would endanger the integrity of the UK single market. But Northern Ireland already has specific rules, in many areas that are different to the rest of the UK.

"Think of the all-Ireland electricity markets… think of rules that prevent and hinder animal disease. There are over 100 areas of cross-border cooperation on the island of Ireland and such cooperation depends in many cases on the application of common rule and common regulatory space."

Theresa May has committed to taking the UK out of the single market and customs union, but the decision means new difficulties on the Irish border.

Ireland will be staying in the EU, Britain will be leaving, but neither side wants to tear up the Good Friday agreement and put a hard border on the island of Ireland.

The EU however says that its must still have a border on its frontiers, and has suggested in leaked internal documents that customs checks instead be carried out at ports between Northern Ireland and Great Britain.

Brexit Secretary David Davis has however ruled out a “new border in the UK”, arguing that such a solution would risk “the constitutional and economic integrity of the United Kingdom”.

The Conservatives also have no majority in the House of Commons and would likely rely on votes of the Northern Ireland unionists DUP to pass any Brexit deal, limiting the Government’s freedom of action on the subject.

In a wide-ranging speech, Mr Barnier called for clarity from the UK over the issue of the Irish border.

"The UK said it would continue to apply some EU rules on its territory, but not all rules," he told the audience. "What is therefore unclear is what rules will apply in Northern Ireland after Brexit and what the UK is willing to commit to avoid a hard border. I expect the UK as a good guarantor of the Good Friday agreement to come forward with proposals.

"The Islands of Ireland is faced with many challenges, those who wanted Brexit must come up with solutions."

On Friday Irish PM Leo Varadkar said he wanted a promise in writing from the UK that there would be no hard border on the island of Ireland, while European Council president Donald Tusk said "much more progress" was needed on the issue, along with that of the financial settlement, before trade talks could begin

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...ier-customs-union-ports-britain-a8064931.html

 

[Yossarian]

Exactly. Ultimately everybody knows this, even the Loyalist politicians themselves do. They just dont wanna accept it. End of the day as I said Unionism could well have a place in todays world if it adapted to modern times and expressed geuine reasons for remaining in the UK.

Alas all they do is whataboutery about the IRA, spout bigotry, resist change of any sort and embezzle themselves every chance they get. Plus the odd effigy.

Unionism made its choice when it allowed thugs like Bryson, Allister, Campbell etc to be its leadership, now it'll reap its rewards.

But the Tory imperialist nostalgists, aka the Brexiteers who have been pushing for Brexit for decades, so that Britain can "reclaim it's past glories", will also be vehemently opposed to having yet another piece of the old Empire being lost, this time a component of itself, or to give it's full name, the "United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland."

Without Norther Ireland, and being left with just England, Scotland and Wales (which make up "Great Britain"), it will become "The United Kingdom of Great Britain" - with the "United Kingdom" bit becoming meaningless.

 

[Donal Cozzie]

But the Tory imperialist nostalgists, aka the Brexiteers who have been pushing for Brexit for decades, so that Britain can "reclaim it's past glories", will also be vehemently opposed to having yet another piece of the old Empire being lost, this time a component of itself, or to give it's full name, the "United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland."

Without Norther Ireland, and being left with just England, Scotland and Wales (which make up "Great Britain"), it will become "The United Kingdom of Great Britain" - with the "United Kingdom" bit becoming meaningless.

I'm fairly sure they dont make up the majority of Tories, least I'd hope not.....

Extremist or not, reality is clear as day for all to see

 

[Yossarian]

I'm fairly sure they dont make up the majority of Tories, least I'd hope not.....

Extremist or not, reality is clear as day for all to see

They don't need to make up a majority of Tories, but just those who pull the strings in the background. Just look how the referendum itself came about: the anti-EU Tories are/were a fairly small band, but they wielded enough power to force David Cameron to hold the referendum.

You're on the outside looking in from a logical point of view. But when it comes to politics, power and influence, logic goes out of the window. It's a just takes a few here and there, with control of the right levers of the media, the right levers of power and influence, the so called "Establishment", and hey presto, you're in a position to form perceptions, manipulate the public, and ultimately control events.

 

[Yossarian]

The DUP's threats to the Tory government

The DUP pledged in June to support Theresa May's minority government over Brexit and other core issues as part of a parliamentary pact due to last at least two years.

But Nigel Dodds, the party's deputy leader, has warned that any prospect of the border moving to the Irish Sea after Brexit - an idea suggested by some within the Irish government - would be "gravely destabilising" to the UK government.

They (the Conservatives) know that," he told the BBC's Daily Politics.

Given Northern Ireland's trade links with the rest of the UK, he said such a move would be "madness economically, never mind the political consequences".

But Ireland's foreign minister Simon Coveney said his government was right to seek more assurances about the border issue before agreeing to the next phase of Brexit talks.

"This is a much bigger issue than trade," he told the Evening Standard. "This is about division on the island of Ireland."

Arguing Dublin had the support of the other 26 EU members, he added. "I will not be an Irish foreign minister that presides over a negotiation which is not prioritising peace on the island of Ireland."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42064743

 

[Robert]

Without Norther Ireland, and being left with just England, Scotland and Wales (which make up "Great Britain"), it will become "The United Kingdom of Great Britain" - with the "United Kingdom" bit becoming meaningless.

Might just go back to the Kingdom of Great Britain, as it was entitled before absorbing Ireland in 1807 or whenever.

 

[Robert]

If the border moves to the ports, what do you think will happen to the Tory-DUP deal [MENTION=136108]Donal Cozzie[/MENTION]? Will it collapse as the DUP renege on the agreement, forcing another GE?

 

[Donal Cozzie]

If the border moves to the ports, what do you think will happen to the Tory-DUP deal [MENTION=136108]Donal Cozzie[/MENTION]? Will it collapse as the DUP renege on the agreement, forcing another GE?

I dont know tbh and I dont think anybody can predict the DUP. Either way they're screwed as I said.

If its moved and they collapse the Government a Nationalist friendly Corbyn takes over and immediately starts using Direct Rule to legislate for same sex marriage and an Irish Language Act. They don't collapse the Government and for all extents and purposes the UK ditches NI, but the DUP keep their 1.5 billion pound bribe.

Impossible to say really. Personally I think the DUP are so bigoted they'd happily collapse the Government, but in doing so they'd sign their own death warrant

 

[Yossarian]

I dont know tbh and I dont think anybody can predict the DUP. Either way they're screwed as I said.

If its moved and they collapse the Government a Nationalist friendly Corbyn takes over and immediately starts using Direct Rule to legislate for same sex marriage and an Irish Language Act. They don't collapse the Government and for all extents and purposes the UK ditches NI, but the DUP keep their 1.5 billion pound bribe.

Impossible to say really. Personally I think the DUP are so bigoted they'd happily collapse the Government, but in doing so they'd sign their own death warrant

And if the "No deal better than bad deal" and walk-away mantra becomes reality, what then come 11:00 pm 29th March 2019?

 

[Donal Cozzie]

And if the "No deal better than bad deal" and walk-away mantra becomes reality, what then come 11:00 pm 29th March 2019?

Conceivably a hard border but, who knows?

 

[Yossarian]

Conceivably a hard border but, who knows?

But you more or less stated that a hard border was effectively almost impossible to have and enforce in reality, for the reasons stated (or words to that effect)?

The Irish border does not exist. It cannot exist. At present dozens if not hundreds of farmers have land which crosses the border dozens of times. Not only that but countless businesses north and south rely on each other to function and survive. Additionally thousands of people live in one territory and work in another. The border has hundreds of small country roads passing through it. The British Army at the height of the conflict tried to seal it, checkpoints, fences even mines if I'm not mistaken. Didn't work, while the main roads were secured, locals constantly removed barriers in the country ones and smuggling was rampant. Not only that but countless lakes require a 10 minute boat trip to reach the opposing side in another country.

A "no deal better than a bad deal", thus the UK government walking away, and forcing Ireland to leave the EU back door wide open, or leaving Ireland/EU to implement an unworkable hard border, surely means major problems for Ireland? And the EU then forcing Ireland to have customs controls between itself and the rest of the EU as a means of shutting the EU's back door? Is that a possibility that Ireland may be faced with?

 

[Donal Cozzie]

But you more or less stated that a hard border was effectively almost impossible to have and enforce in reality, for the reasons stated (or words to that effect)?



A "no deal better than a bad deal", thus the UK government walking away, and forcing Ireland to leave the EU back door wide open, or leaving Ireland/EU to implement an unworkable hard border, surely means major problems for Ireland? And the EU then forcing Ireland to have customs controls between itself and the rest of the EU as a means of shutting the EU's back door? Is that a possibility that Ireland may be faced with?

Yes I know I did. My point was that they'd try to implement one anyway, and fail.

I cannot see how the last point is possible. Ireland as an EU member would never allow itself to be locked out of its own customs market and the EU wouldnt be so foolish as to treat one of its own members in such a fashion.

Way I look the UK walking away with no deal is the worst case scenario, even worse than NI getting special status, therefore I find it quite unlikely it would happen considering the UK and EU want to avoid it. The UK would also want to avoid a hard border as well, least they stated as much in previous announcements. Hard border causes damage on all sides so thats why I find it fierce unlikely it will happen.

 

[Yossarian]

Yes I know I did. My point was that they'd try to implement one anyway, and fail.

I cannot see how the last point is possible. Ireland as an EU member would never allow itself to be locked out of its own customs market and the EU wouldnt be so foolish as to treat one of its own members in such a fashion.

Way I look the UK walking away with no deal is the worst case scenario, even worse than NI getting special status, therefore I find it quite unlikely it would happen considering the UK and EU want to avoid it. The UK would also want to avoid a hard border as well, least they stated as much in previous announcements. Hard border causes damage on all sides so thats why I find it fierce unlikely it will happen.

I agree with most of above. Other than the fact that many Tory Brexiteers are hell bent on the "no deal is better than a bad deal" scenario, and walking away at 11:00 pm on 29 March 2019. And that includes some members of the Cabinet. In fact, at this stage, it looks like being more than just a mere possibility.

 

[Eagle_Eye]

I agree with most of above. Other than the fact that many Tory Brexiteers are hell bent on the "no deal is better than a bad deal" scenario, and walking away at 11:00 pm on 29 March 2019. And that includes some members of the Cabinet. In fact, at this stage, it looks like being more than just a mere possibility.

hard border puts Ireland in a bind. They get locked out of tarrif free access to their largest export market because of the eu imposing a border in case of a no deal. Their biggest worry is that the UK may do favourable deals elsewhere and the Irish lose their market share.

The solution is that the EU makes an exception for Britain, it always has done so nothing new there or Ireland holds a vote to leave the EU... no second go this time. Knowing the consequences for their economy, the Irish will leave the EU, they have form in voting against the EU in referendums.

 

[Yossarian]

hard border puts Ireland in a bind. They get locked out of tarrif free access to their largest export market because of the eu imposing a border in case of a no deal. Their biggest worry is that the UK may do favourable deals elsewhere and the Irish lose their market share.

The solution is that the EU makes an exception for Britain, it always has done so nothing new there or Ireland holds a vote to leave the EU... no second go this time. Knowing the consequences for their economy, the Irish will leave the EU, they have form in voting against the EU in referendums.

So now Brexiteers are hoping that Ireland will decide to leave the EU considering the extent to which Ireland has benefited from being in the EU! Brexiteers getting desperate and are now clutching at straws.)

 

[Eagle_Eye]

So now Brexiteers are hoping that Ireland will decide to leave the EU considering the extent to which Ireland has benefited from being in the EU! Brexiteers getting desperate and are now clutching at straws.)

No I am not hoping for anything. I am stating what the solution is for Irish economy not to be affected.

EU makes Britain a special case or Ireland leaves EU. I merely stated fact that Irish people always vote against the EU and then asked to keep voting till they change their mind. Now more than ever they need to decide whether they want to be in EU that will impose a hard border.

What happens to Ireland if uk lowers its corporate tax and there is a hard border.

The tactics employed by lil Leo will ultimately backfire and have a blow back on their economy more than ours. As I said before, he should be fighting for Britain and asking for special case for Britain. Otherwise, live with the consequences.

 

[Yossarian]

No I am not hoping for anything. I am stating what the solution is for Irish economy not to be affected.

EU makes Britain a special case or Ireland leaves EU. I merely stated fact that Irish people always vote against the EU and then asked to keep voting till they change their mind. Now more than ever they need to decide whether they want to be in EU that will impose a hard border.

What happens to Ireland if uk lowers its corporate tax and there is a hard border.

The tactics employed by lil Leo will ultimately backfire and have a blow back on their economy more than ours. As I said before, he should be fighting for Britain and asking for special case for Britain. Otherwise, live with the consequences.

What a load of cobblers. Did you watch the Budget speech yesterday, or read about it? And the reduced forecasts for the economy for the next 5 years due to brexit? Did you read about the EU institutions based in London choosing their new locations and starting the relocation process?

Here read the first paragraph of a thread I started:

Most are aware of banks saying they will relocate thousands of staff from London to the EU due to Brexit.

However, the vast majority of Brexiteers are not aware even now that there are numerous EU institutions, such as the European Medicines Agency (EMA) and the European Banking Authority as well as others which will move out of the UK after Brexit and/or Britain will cease to be part of after Brexit.

The EMA coordinates the evaluation of the safety and effectiveness of treatments by national agencies before they can be used across the EU.

The EMA will be now be moving out of London to Amsterdam. The new city for the EBA will be decided later tonight. Many pharmaceutical companies will also be relocating some of their functions to Amsterdam so as to be closer to the EMA..

You can read the rest of it here which provides further details.
http://www.pakpassion.net/ppforum/s...reatments-new-drugs-amp-jobs&highlight=Brexit

Brexit is starting to have it's effect. And yet most Brexiteers are still deluding themselves that leaving the EU is as simple as resigning from the membership of a private golf club but then expecting the golf club to give you the same level of access and members benefit as you enjoyed previously as a member.

 

[Eagle_Eye]

What a load of cobblers. Did you watch the Budget speech yesterday, or read about it? And the reduced forecasts for the economy for the next 5 years due to brexit? Did you read about the EU institutions based in London choosing their new locations and starting the relocation process?

Here read the first paragraph of a thread I started:

You can read the rest of it here which provides further details.
http://www.pakpassion.net/ppforum/s...reatments-new-drugs-amp-jobs&highlight=Brexit

Brexit is starting to have it's effect. And yet most Brexiteers are still deluding themselves that leaving the EU is as simple as resigning from the membership of a private golf club but then expecting the golf club to give you the same level of access and members benefit as you enjoyed previously as a member.

EMA and EBA are both EU agencies.... why on earth do you expect them to stay in UK when we will not be in the EU.... this is an example of remoaner obfuscation or ill thought out negative sentiment.

Still waiting on recession that was predicted.....

the more doom and gloom the Remoaners spread, the more resilient the country turns out to be.

As for Ireland, lowering of corporation tax by uk and hard border ... what are their plans to deal with that. The Uk will never undermine its sovereignty so best move on from that and lobby for Britain in EU.

 

[Donal Cozzie]

EU makes Britain a special case or Ireland leaves EU. I merely stated fact that Irish people always vote against the EU and then asked to keep voting till they change their mind. Now more than ever they need to decide whether they want to be in EU that will impose a hard border.

Irish people do not "always" vote against the EU, You refer to the Lisbon Treaty which correct we shot down, and then after the EU gave Ireland exclusions in certain parts was overwhelmingly ratified.

The EU is not imposing anything. What part of that dont you understand? The UK is leaving the Customs Union, and potentially a hard border may arise as a result of that. Therefore the UK is imposing it. Yiu cant just say "Well we dont want a hard border, therefore its not us imposing it" when it was your decision that caused it in the first place.

Mate, while there are some very small aspects of Irish politics opposed to the EU, the overwhelming majority of people recognise how pivotal the EU was in transforming this former third world backwater into one of the worlds most successful economies. Not to mention one of the best places to live despite some issues. In every single poll conducted on this topic Ireland not only is very favourable to remaining, we're actually no.1 in the EU.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2017/0509/873610-eu_poll/

https://ec.europa.eu/ireland/news/irish-most-positive-about-eu-eurobarometer_en

We recognise the EU aint perfect, it has problems, but we also recognise that it transformed this country for the better in countless countless ways.

What happens to Ireland if uk lowers its corporate tax and there is a hard border.

Absolutely nothing because realistically most corporations would rather a very low corporation tax AND EU market access as opposed to an even lower tax and no market access. Why do you think countless institutions, particularly financial ones, are already moving their HQ's to Dublin, Frankfurt and elsewhere after the referendum?

The tactics employed by lil Leo will ultimately backfire and have a blow back on their economy more than ours. As I said before, he should be fighting for Britain and asking for special case for Britain. Otherwise, live with the consequences.

"Lil Leo" there we go the mask slips. Little Old Ireland will shut up and do what its masters in Westminster tell it to eh? Nope! I'm far from a fan of Varadkar or the Fine Gael government but credit where its due they've been excellent on Brexit so far. Ireland does not want a hard border. The UK does not want a hard border. The EU does not want a hard border. All thats left is grandstanding until the UK goes for a sea border.

Why should we be fighting for Britain? The Brexiters dont want special status I thought??

Again you cannot grasp the fact that we're firmly staying in the EU and also wont allow a border to return. Either the UK can accept that and negotiate something sensible or it can endure economic disaster in a no deal scenario.

Ireland would suffer too of course, UK is an important trade partner, but contrary to popular belief our trade with the EU far outweighs that of the UK. We sure as hell wont damage our own membership for the sake of our neighbours who have shown our island absolutely zero respect or care throughout this entire process.

 

[Yossarian]

[MENTION=136108]Donal Cozzie[/MENTION] ^^^^ By and large agree 100% with your post.

If Brexit wasn't going to be such a disaster, it would have been hilarious seeing Brexiteers like [MENTION=44089]Eagle_Eye[/MENTION] on the one hand thinking that Brexit was going to lead Britain to utopia, whilst at the same expecting, or rather hoping, that the EU would now grant the UK a special deal. The only special deal that the EU should grant the Brexiteers is the Brexiteers begging to cancel article 50.

 

[Eagle_Eye]

Irish people do not "always" vote against the EU, You refer to the Lisbon Treaty which correct we shot down, and then after the EU gave Ireland exclusions in certain parts was overwhelmingly ratified.

The EU is not imposing anything. What part of that dont you understand? The UK is leaving the Customs Union, and potentially a hard border may arise as a result of that. Therefore the UK is imposing it. Yiu cant just say "Well we dont want a hard border, therefore its not us imposing it" when it was your decision that caused it in the first place.

Mate, while there are some very small aspects of Irish politics opposed to the EU, the overwhelming majority of people recognise how pivotal the EU was in transforming this former third world backwater into one of the worlds most successful economies. Not to mention one of the best places to live despite some issues. In every single poll conducted on this topic Ireland not only is very favourable to remaining, we're actually no.1 in the EU.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2017/0509/873610-eu_poll/

https://ec.europa.eu/ireland/news/irish-most-positive-about-eu-eurobarometer_en

We recognise the EU aint perfect, it has problems, but we also recognise that it transformed this country for the better in countless countless ways.



Absolutely nothing because realistically most corporations would rather a very low corporation tax AND EU market access as opposed to an even lower tax and no market access. Why do you think countless institutions, particularly financial ones, are already moving their HQ's to Dublin, Frankfurt and elsewhere after the referendum?



"Lil Leo" there we go the mask slips. Little Old Ireland will shut up and do what its masters in Westminster tell it to eh? Nope! I'm far from a fan of Varadkar or the Fine Gael government but credit where its due they've been excellent on Brexit so far. Ireland does not want a hard border. The UK does not want a hard border. The EU does not want a hard border. All thats left is grandstanding until the UK goes for a sea border.

Why should we be fighting for Britain? The Brexiters dont want special status I thought??

Again you cannot grasp the fact that we're firmly staying in the EU and also wont allow a border to return. Either the UK can accept that and negotiate something sensible or it can endure economic disaster in a no deal scenario.

Ireland would suffer too of course, UK is an important trade partner, but contrary to popular belief our trade with the EU far outweighs that of the UK. We sure as hell wont damage our own membership for the sake of our neighbours who have shown our island absolutely zero respect or care throughout this entire process.

Let's correct you on Irish history with Eu referendums. They have had two, once for Nice and another for Lisbon, both times they voted against it. Both times they were made to vote again....

Britain is not going to dilute its sovereignty, just to satisfy what is in your best interest. It's a completely foolish and antagonist approach, the people of UK are not going to accept it. I wouldn't ask the people of Ireland to dilute their sovereignty.

Everything with EU is negotiable, the UK will want a deal that suites us for what we need. things will become clear in the weeks and months ahead.

The question here is how to deal with blowback on Irish economy, as i outlined earlier, it's only by two ways

- leave eu
- Eu allows special deal for Ireland to make with UK. We are not even asking it to be linked to the wider deal. Infact I should have said that it's a special deal for Ireland. This way Irish economy is not impacted, the exports come in as is and people of the island of Ireland move around freely. if Ireland pushes for it and Britain pushes for it will happen, the eu will cave. The prospect of another member bolting for the exit is not palatable to those dreaming of united states of Europe in Brussels.


The UK is the largest trading partner of Ireland.... but if you think it's not going to have an effect then fine let the borders go up. But remember thst once a market share is lost, it's hard to get it back. If you can new markets in the EU, by all means go for it.

 

[Eagle_Eye]

[MENTION=136108]Donal Cozzie[/MENTION] ^^^^ By and large agree 100% with your post.

If Brexit wasn't going to be such a disaster, it would have been hilarious seeing Brexiteers like [MENTION=44089]Eagle_Eye[/MENTION] on the one hand thinking that Brexit was going to lead Britain to utopia, whilst at the same expecting, or rather hoping, that the EU would now grant the UK a special deal. The only special deal that the EU should grant the Brexiteers is the Brexiteers begging to cancel article 50.

Carry on with scaremongering.....

explain why would ema and eba, veritable arms of the EU want to keep headquarters in the UK post brexit?

 

[Donal Cozzie]

Let's correct you on Irish history with Eu referendums. They have had two, once for Nice and another for Lisbon, both times they voted against it. Both times they were made to vote again....

They were made to vote again on edited versions of the Treaties, which were both ratified. Whats wrong with that? They were rejected, changes were made and accepted, isnt that democracy?

Not only that, but the first vote on the Treaty of Nice had a pathetically low turnout of 34%.

Britain is not going to dilute its sovereignty, just to satisfy what is in your best interest. It's a completely foolish and antagonist approach, the people of UK are not going to accept it. I wouldn't ask the people of Ireland to dilute their sovereignty.

Except you are? In Northern Ireland there are hundreds of thousands of Irish people with Irish passports who now face a potential border being put up on what they see as their home. How is that not compromising on sovereignty. The Irish state has even invested money on cross border schemes, hell the Irish Government invested 19 million euros on health services in Derry and thats only one. Ambulance services and the like regularly cross borders too.

Not only that but you seem more than happy to make us go to the EU and suggest that we be taken out of the Customs Union to sort out the UK's mess. Thats basically the definition of compromising sovereignty considering we had nothing to do with the Brexit vote in the first place.

Its also very rich to accuse us of using a nationalistic and antagonistic approach considering its blatantly obvious Brexiters are fuming at us for not simply rolling over and gave the impact of Brexit on Ireland and NI and therefore the UK absolutely zero thought whatsoever, otherwise we wouldnt have this discussion in the first place. The only party being nationalistic and antagonistic here is the UK, thats plain as day.

The GFA recognised that the Irish Government as co-guarantors had a right to a say in the affairs of Northern Ireland. Brexit risks ripping all this into pieces.

Everything with EU is negotiable, the UK will want a deal that suites us for what we need. things will become clear in the weeks and months ahead.

Agreed on this. What the UK seems to need or want is access to the Single Market without allowing free movement of people. Things will be negotiated and things will happen. We'll have to see what the UK ultimately decide because the ball is firmly in their court here.

The question here is how to deal with blowback on Irish economy, as i outlined earlier,

You state this as if Ireland are the only ones affected when the UK is actually worse off considering its hindering trade with 27 neighbours whereas our trade with 1 is being hindered, albeit an important 1. I'd still much rather our position here.

it's only by two ways

- leave eu

As the links in my previous post showed, not a hope in hell this will this happen. An Irexit referendum prompted by the UK essentially asking us to vote to suit them? Lol, we're talking 15% voting Leave on a good day here.

- Eu allows special deal for Ireland to make with UK. We are not even asking it to be linked to the wider deal. Infact I should have said that it's a special deal for Ireland. This way Irish economy is not impacted, the exports come in as is and people of the island of Ireland move around freely. if Ireland pushes for it and Britain pushes for it will happen, the eu will cave. The prospect of another member bolting for the exit is not palatable to those dreaming of united states of Europe in Brussels.

But what then stops people importing cheap poor quality chlorinated chickens (As the current most prominent example) to Belfast, crossing the border and shipping it to Germany from Dublin? Are you proposing Ireland have customs unions checks at its borders for the EU? Why on earth would the EU treat one of its members in such a fashion. Ireland sure as hell wont allow it as the amount of FDI we have means itd be a disaster to impose checks, not to mention how badly itd affect Irish businesses. Ireland, a good PR story for the EU with regards to recovering from the financial crisis, developing into a proper nation in a short time and peacekeeping, and the EU would allow it to be locked out of its own customs union to suit the UK who have behaved about as poorly as possible to the EU? How do you think the other EU states would react to that, particularly the smaller ones?

The UK is the largest trading partner of Ireland....

Wrong. Its actually the US followed by Belgium, an EU state! and then the UK with both being identical. I'm only doing brief post midnight maths here but the following link

https://tradingeconomics.com/ireland/exports-by-country

allows me to see that exports to EU nations amounts to about 53 billion dollars (I've stopped counting after Italy, odds are the rest amount to another few billion) if I also include Switzerland who are also in the CU if I'm not mistaken. So EU CU trade is roughly 3 times larger than that with the UK, not taking account for the increase we're likely to see post Brexit particularly if as seems likely the UK ruins its own food standards to get a deal with the US.

So you're saying Ireland should do a deal with the UK then approach the EU and agree to lock itself out of a Customs Union which garners 3 times more revenue than UK trade, to satisfy the UK??

How does this work exactly? Or am I reading this wrong?

If you're proposing Ireland and the UK agree no trade barriers and Ireland then go to the EU and say "look we're doing this, take it or leave it" that'd be just as moronic as it'd be shot down instantly by the other states and we'd be back at square 1.

but if you think it's not going to have an effect then fine let the borders go up. But remember thst once a market share is lost, it's hard to get it back. If you can new markets in the EU, by all means go for it.

Of course it will have an effect. The UK is one of our biggest trading partners. But we're not gonna let ourselves be walked over on this one. Ultimately we also find ourselves in a position to profit from Brexit as well. UK trade aint gonna disappear due to Brexit, itll remain a key partner, but itll obviously be reduced. That said we're still far better off on the EU's side, both politically and financially, and we're also gonna argue for a borderless island to protect the hundreds of thousands of citizens in the six counties and protect the GFA, which the UK
obviously dont give a damn about. That is our right, that is our position and that is what we'll do.

Ultimately the UK have caused issues in what was a very close relationship between the two states because they didnt give a damn about our island, despite them controlling a sixth of it. As the guff on twitter and being spouted lately on the Sun about our PM show, they cant comprehend the reality of their situation.

The next month will be extremely interesting I'll say that.

 

[Donal Cozzie]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Downing Street spokesman says possibility of Northern Ireland staying in the customs union post-Brexit is "a matter for the negotiations". Interesting...</p>— Henry Zeffman (@hzeffman) <a href="https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/934019845733208064?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 24, 2017</a></blockquote>
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And it begins....

English Nationalism vs Ulster Unionism, only ever gonna be one winner....

 

[Donal Cozzie]

Legitimately dumbfounded following UK media and twitter the last three days and the absolute nonsense and bile I've seen being spouted.

Its becoming more and more obvious that not one politician on the Brexit side has a clue what they're talking about, either that or they're willfully spouting lies and soundbites to appease the imperialist crowd.

Kate Hoey declares today that the issue can be solved electronically, in which case why doesnt every border on earth use it, then declaring Ireland will likely leave the EU which is absolute nonsense. Also said that we'll pay for the border which is just transcending reality.

Honestly stunned that the UK establishment possesses such astounding ignorance of the one nation it has a land border with. Baffling stuff. As for the argument that I keep hearing repeated "we dont want a border so its up to the EU to erect one" thats actually so mindboggling dumb I dont even know where to begin.

Associate editor of the Telegraph

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The point is that the Irish border is about so much more than economics and trade. It's hundreds years of history; Ireland has poisoned UK politics and brought down governments for centuries, and may well do so again. <a href="https://t.co/bGD1alt5FX">https://t.co/bGD1alt5FX</a></p>— jeremy warner (@JeremyWarnerUK) <a href="https://twitter.com/JeremyWarnerUK/status/935185322010402821?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">27 November 2017</a></blockquote>
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A House of Lords member referring to our PM as "The Indian"

And to top it off this gem from an elected MEP, although its UKIP I suppose so cant expect much. We're a "threat" now

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">UK threatened by Ireland. A tiny country that relies on UK for its existence. We should advise, we are free to revoke common travel area.</p>— Gerard Batten MEP (@GerardBattenMEP) <a href="https://twitter.com/GerardBattenMEP/status/934821820859068417?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">26 November 2017</a></blockquote>
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30 years of closening relations for what? Absolute ignorance and triumphalist guff in return.

Genuinely surprised, expected a minority of loonies alright but these are elected representatives.

 

[Donal Cozzie]

As regards NI, well these polls reveal a lot



<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Northern Irish public:<br>"People should be prepared to accept border controls between Northern Ireland and Great Britain if agreed in the Brexit negotiations between the Gov and the EU":<br><br>Agree: 49%<br>Disagree: 39%<br><br>via <a href="https://twitter.com/IpsosMORI?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@IpsosMORI</a></p>— Britain Elects (@britainelects) <a href="https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/934876815902105600?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">26 November 2017</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Polls on Brexit & NI are quite rare so read this. Clear majority of catholics & protestants appear to back free movement across Irish border with border controls between the island & GB. (NB. it's a slightly odd Q. IMO). <a href="https://t.co/58ifuG9amN">https://t.co/58ifuG9amN</a></p>— Gavin Kelly (@GavinJKelly1) <a href="https://twitter.com/GavinJKelly1/status/934882168513417216?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 26, 2017</a></blockquote>
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[Yossarian]

Hard Brexit would hit 142 Irish cross-border agreements

From heart surgery to special needs education to mobile phone charges, an EC and UK study has compiled a list of activities that will be hit

A confidential study conducted by the UK government and the European commission has listed 142 cross-border activities on the island of Ireland that would be negatively impacted by a hard Brexit.

They include heart surgery in Dublin for children from Northern Ireland as well as cancer treatment in Derry for people from the Republic because patients, clinicians and ambulances are free to move across the border without checks.

Also listed as at risk are existing cross-border agreements on mobile phone roaming, which enable commuters, tourists and business travellers to enjoy charges restricted to local rates across the entire island.


https://www.theguardian.com/politic...t-would-hit-142-irish-cross-border-agreements

Theresa May - between a rock and a hard place.

She stated 3 "Red Lines" that her Tory government will not cross:

1. No border controls, of any sort, between Ireland and Northern Ireland.
2. The UK will leave the Customs Union.
3. The UK will leave the Single Market.

Somebody forgot to tell her that (1) is incompatible with (2) & (3).

To be fair to Labour, they say that all options (regarding points 2 & 3) are open and still on the table.

 

[Eagle_Eye]

Well that's great. Brexit has united Catholics and Protestants!!.... now only if they can agree to unite the island of Ireland too...

 

[Donal Cozzie]

I......what......I mean......

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Could you draw Ireland's border with Northern Ireland? The border with Northern Ireland has become a major Brexit stumbling block. <a href="https://t.co/yyqCRpPFuW">pic.twitter.com/yyqCRpPFuW</a></p>— Channel 4 News (@Channel4News) <a href="https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/935599685611515904?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">28 November 2017</a></blockquote>
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[Yossarian]

Ireland/EU thought they had reached agreement with the UK.

Shortly before the news conference between Jean-Claude Juncker and Theresa May to announce that agreement had been reached, the DUP made a public statement that basically said they were having none of what they thought Theresa May had agreed with the Irish/EU.

Theresa May left her meeting with Jean-Claude Juncker to make a call to (or take from?) Arlene Foster of the DUP.

20 minutes later, Theresa May comes back to the meeting, and says 'No deal' (or similar).

The DUP have her over a barrel!

 

[Markhor]

Ireland/EU thought they had reached agreement with the UK.

Shortly before the news conference between Jean-Claude Juncker and Theresa May to announce that agreement had been reached, the DUP made a public statement that basically said they were having none of what they thought Theresa May had agreed with the Irish/EU.

Theresa May left her meeting with Jean-Claude Juncker to make a call to (or take from?) Arlene Foster of the DUP.

20 minutes later, Theresa May comes back to the meeting, and says 'No deal' (or similar).

The DUP have her over a barrel!

Hang on, if we're calling for "regulatory alignment" between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, that implies you're keeping NI in the single market and customs union.

What's to stop Scotland calling for a similar arrangement ?

This government will break up the Union with their incompetence. When will we stop this madness of trying to create a bespoke deal and let sanity prevail by staying in the Single Market with a Norway-style EEA arrangement ?

 

[Donal Cozzie]

Ireland/EU thought they had reached agreement with the UK.

Shortly before the news conference between Jean-Claude Juncker and Theresa May to announce that agreement had been reached, the DUP made a public statement that basically said they were having none of what they thought Theresa May had agreed with the Irish/EU.

Theresa May left her meeting with Jean-Claude Juncker to make a call to (or take from?) Arlene Foster of the DUP.

20 minutes later, Theresa May comes back to the meeting, and says 'No deal' (or similar).

The DUP have her over a barrel!

Do they??

It all comes down to what we've been saying, either the Tories go the DUP route and erect a hard border and potentially cause another conflict, or they shaft the DUP and everybody is happy bar the bigoted neanderthals.

What can the DUP do? They've bought themselves a couple days at best. Fact is as of this morning the UK Government as I said were more than willing to shaft the DUP for Brexit, because there is no other solution to this mess. They said they wanted out of the SM and CU, but also avoid a border. The only method of this is some form of special status for NI. Absolutely nothing else achieves this and both the DUP and Tories have flatly rejected any other solution.

The DUP are just as powerless here as May is IMO. They collapse the Government, bye bye 1 billion pound bribe, hello Socialist pro United Ireland Jeremy Corbyn, If by some miracle the Tories retain a majority, they wont be looking to deal with the DUP again. DUP sink back into powerlessness and obscurity either way, and with no Executive in the North they have zero power.

All the Tories need to do if its necessary is increase the 1 billion pound bribe by a few million more. How they handle the Scottish and London questions though? Who knows. Within 5 minutes of the agreement leaking this morning Sturgeon and Sadiq were asking why they cant have special status, we're literally witnessing the UK break up before our eyes, ironically through something which was supposed to take back control and make it stronger.

All that happened today was the DUP exposed their bigotry once again for all to see. Rejecting a move which would be incredibly beneficial to NI for the sake of flegs, even though they already diverge from the UK in countless ways and contrary to what they claim, they do not represent NI and Foster is not the First Minister, and hasnt been for nearly 12 months.

 

[Donal Cozzie]

If the DUP have May over a barrel, Varadkar and Coveney have her over a piping hot volcano.

 

[Yossarian]

Do they??

It all comes down to what we've been saying, either the Tories go the DUP route and erect a hard border and potentially cause another conflict, or they shaft the DUP and everybody is happy bar the bigoted neanderthals.

What can the DUP do? They've bought themselves a couple days at best. Fact is as of this morning the UK Government as I said were more than willing to shaft the DUP for Brexit, because there is no other solution to this mess. They said they wanted out of the SM and CU, but also avoid a border. The only method of this is some form of special status for NI. Absolutely nothing else achieves this and both the DUP and Tories have flatly rejected any other solution.

The DUP are just as powerless here as May is IMO. They collapse the Government, bye bye 1 billion pound bribe, hello Socialist pro United Ireland Jeremy Corbyn, If by some miracle the Tories retain a majority, they wont be looking to deal with the DUP again. DUP sink back into powerlessness and obscurity either way, and with no Executive in the North they have zero power.

All the Tories need to do if its necessary is increase the 1 billion pound bribe by a few million more. How they handle the Scottish and London questions though? Who knows. Within 5 minutes of the agreement leaking this morning Sturgeon and Sadiq were asking why they cant have special status, we're literally witnessing the UK break up before our eyes, ironically through something which was supposed to take back control and make it stronger.

All that happened today was the DUP exposed their bigotry once again for all to see. Rejecting a move which would be incredibly beneficial to NI for the sake of flegs, even though they already diverge from the UK in countless ways and contrary to what they claim, they do not represent NI and Foster is not the First Minister, and hasnt been for nearly 12 months.

Only one problem with the above. Aside from the DUP, there are also plenty of Tory right wingers/Brexiteers who will sink Theresa May since, on the question of NI being fully part of the UK, there is no difference between them and the DUP.

Theresa May's position is akin to someone stuck on the 100th floor of a burning skyscraper and faced with staying and burning to death, or jumping and being smashed to a pulp. Death is inevitable either way.

 

[Donal Cozzie]

Only one problem with the above. Aside from the DUP, there are also plenty of Tory right wingers/Brexiteers who will sink Theresa May since, on the question of NI being fully part of the UK, there is no difference between them and the DUP.

Theresa May's position is akin to someone stuck on the 100th floor of a burning skyscraper and faced with staying and burning to death, or jumping and being smashed to a pulp. Death is inevitable either way.

Well they're gonna have to face the simple reality

1) Brexit for GB, special status for NI

2) No Brexit at all.

Which do you think they prefer.....

Media of the past two weeks has shown loud and clear for NI Unionists that the mainland UK can barely point them out on a map let alone care about them. Brexit has done more to damage the Union than 80 years of post partition conflict ever could have.

 

[Donal Cozzie]

DUP gonna come in for pressure themselves now. Ireland, the EU and the UK were satisfied with the proposed arrangement. I still feel when talks resume later this week it'll go ahead

 

[Robert]

May can just bung the people af NI another billion. These DUP MPs are responsible to their constituents and surely nobody wants to see the Troubles start up again.

If NI gets Customs Union access, Scottish Tories will demand it too. Maybe even London Tories will.

 

[James]

Hopefully the government collapses over this and we can have another GE.

 

[Donal Cozzie]

So today

1) DUP accused the Irish Government of leaking the agreement early, trying to pressure the other side. They then laughably hid behind the GFA, the one we're trying to save and that the DUP vociferously campaigned against.
2) DUP said they never saw the agreement (despite claiming last two weeks they were heavily involved with May's negotiators)
3) Arlene Foster claimed that, apparently, the Irish Government requested that the UK Negotiators dont show it to their fellow partners and coalition member, the DUP, a claim the Irish Government immediately rejected as nonsense.

I'm beginning to wonder if Brecit will even go ahead at this rate because the rhetoric went from "Brexit means Brexit, no single market" to " If one area of UK must converge with EU on regulations they all must".

My theory, DUP consented to agreement, backed down either when they saw how badly fellow unionists took it (unlikely, DUP wouldve known full well how it would go down) or 2) some people in the Conservatives conspired with them to make May look completely inept and replace her.

I'll give Brexit one thing it aint boring.

 

[Gabbar Singh]

And after all the hysteria a deal has been struck.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...resa-may-expected-meet-donald-tusk-two-sides/

 

[Robert]

Hearing on Twitter about Tory Brexit headbangers telling the DUP to “stick at it, we are with you not the PM”.

Poor Mrs May, beset by traitors in that hyena pack of a party.

 

[Yossarian]

The 'agreement' basically says there will be no hard border and no changes to the way trade operates between Ireland and Northern Ireland, and Northern Ireland will follow all the rules as they currently exist (ie with Ireland/EU)

The 'agreement' also says there will be no changes to the way NI operates within the UK, no border in the Irish sea, no special deal between NI and Ireland/EU, and everything stays as is. Unless the negotiations of a future trade agreement between the EU and the UK results in changes to above, in which case those changes will not be made without the agreement of the Northern Irish assembly.

Basically saying "Nothing changes in Northern Ireland until we know what needs to be changed, then we'll change it" )

 

[Donal Cozzie]

The 'agreement' basically says there will be no hard border and no changes to the way trade operates between Ireland and Northern Ireland, and Northern Ireland will follow all the rules as they currently exist (ie with Ireland/EU)

The 'agreement' also says there will be no changes to the way NI operates within the UK, no border in the Irish sea, no special deal between NI and Ireland/EU, and everything stays as is. Unless the negotiations of a future trade agreement between the EU and the UK results in changes to above, in which case those changes will not be made without the agreement of the Northern Irish assembly.

Basically saying "Nothing changes in Northern Ireland until we know what needs to be changed, then we'll change it" )

This agreement essentially forces the UK to stay in the CU and SM, in which case what even is the point of Brexit??

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/...k-from-the-madness-of-a-hard-brexit-1.3320096

Let’s not understate the import of what Ireland has just achieved. It has not just secured an outcome that minimises the damage of Brexit on this island. It has radically altered the trajectory of Brexit itself, pushing that crazy careering vehicle away from its path towards the cliff edge.
This saga has taken many strange turns, but this is the strangest of all: after one of the most fraught fortnights in the recent history of Anglo-Irish relations, Ireland has just done Britain a favour of historic dimensions. It has saved it from the madness of a hard Brexit. There is a great irony here: the problem that the Brexiteers most relentlessly ignored has come to determine the entire shape of their project. By standing firm against their attempts to bully, cajole and blame it, Ireland has shifted Brexit towards a soft outcome. It is now far more likely that Britain will stay in the customs union and the single market. It is also more likely that Brexit will not in fact happen.

ssentially what this extraordinary deal does is to reverse engineer Brexit as a whole from one single component - the need to avoid a hard Irish border. It follows the Sherlock Holmes principle: eliminate the impossible and whatever remains, however improbable, must be the solution. The Irish Government, by taking a firm stance and retaining the rock solid support of the rest of the EU, made the hard border the defining impossibility. Working back from that, the Brexit project now has to embrace what seemed, even last Monday, highly improbable: the necessity, at a minimum, for the entire UK to mirror the rules of the customs union and the single market after it leaves the EU. And this in turn raises the biggest question of all: if the UK is going to mirror the customs union and the single market, why go to the considerable bother of leaving the EU in the first place?

The great surprise of the text of the joint report is that its language is actually much more favourable to Ireland that the text that was leaked on Monday as having been agreed. The language that caused the Democratic Unionist Party to threaten hellfire and damnation suggested that there would be continuing “regulatory alignment” between the two parts of Ireland. What we’ve actually ended up with is much firmer and clearer - and it explicitly invokes the customs union and the single market as the source of these regulations: “In the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the internal market and the customs union which, now or in the future, support North-South co-operation, the all-island economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement.”
The phrase “in the future” is crucial - it means that every single change in the EU’s rules will have to be mirrored north of the border. But this is now the wooden horse inside the walls of Troy because, to avoid the idea of Northern Ireland becoming a separate regulatory space, there will also have to be the same mirroring of the rules and regulations that continue to apply in Northern Ireland by the UK as a whole. The mathematics are simple: if A equals B and B equals C, then C equals A. A is Ireland’s position in the single market and customs union, B is Northern Ireland’s full alignment to that position and C is the UK’s commitment not to differ from Northern Ireland. The commitment to have no barriers to east-west trade means that London is effectively a prisoner of Belfast.
I suggested earlier this week that we were seeing things being turned upside down: instead of, as DUP leader Arlene Foster insisted, Northern Ireland leaving the EU on the same terms as the UK, the UK will have to leave the EU on the same terms as Northern Ireland. This, in effect, is what is now agreed. We always knew the Border is extremely porous, but what has now been smuggled across it is a minimum condition for the second phase of the Brexit talks: whatever trade arrangements eventually emerge, they cannot be ones in which Britain strays much beyond the existing customs and market arrangements. To adapt Henry Ford, Britain can have any Brexit it likes, so long as it is green.
Apart from all of its other consequences, this means the DUP’s great bluff has been called. It was insisting on two contradictory things: no special status for Northern Ireland and completely leaving the customs union and single market. This contradiction has come back to haunt the whole Brexit project -the DUP has been forced to concede that if the first condition is to be satisfied, the second in effect cannot. The deal secured by Ireland does not necessarily force the UK to stay in the customs union and single market. It just forces it to act as if it has stayed in - a distinction without a difference. Call it what you like - if it acts like a customs union, moves like a customs union and is fully aligned like a customs union, it is a customs union.
But this, of course, is precisely why this deal is not just the beginning of the end of the Brexit talks. It is potentially the beginning of the end of Brexit itself. If the deal sticks, the dreams of a clean break, of throwing off the shackles of EU regulation and sailing off into the great blue yonder of Empire 2.0 are over - unless the “swivel-eyed loons” can stage a coup, call off the talks process and crash out with no deal.
And as they themselves have always argued, if Britain is not making a clean break, what is the point of breaking up with the EU at all? Ireland has just pointed its neighbour towards one obvious answer to that question.

 

[Donal Cozzie]

Big big win for the Irish Government, Border avoided, best case scenario of UK completely remaining in SM and CU essentially achieved. First time in my life I've ever seen such cross party agreement with everybody agreeing on what needed to be done.

DUP and UK Government make huge climb down, bluff was called.......

 

[Markhor]

At last - and that was only Phase One, the hardest part is still to come.

On the issue of citizens rights, whilst the ECJ won't have direct jurisdiction over EU citizens in the UK, this agreement says UK courts will have to pay "due regard" to its decisions on an indefinite basis.

The agreement also states that the UK will maintain "full alignment" with the rules of the Single Market and Customs Union. In effect, the UK will be a regulatory protectorate of Brussels - so what's the point of leaving the Single Market and Customs Union ?!

The hard Brexiteers are outraged with Leave Means Leave moaning about how we could end up with a worse deal than Norway - well who's fault is that ? You lot keep demanding withdrawal from the EEA !

 

[the Great Khan]

At last - and that was only Phase One, the hardest part is still to come.

On the issue of citizens rights, whilst the ECJ won't have direct jurisdiction over EU citizens in the UK, this agreement says UK courts will have to pay "due regard" to its decisions on an indefinite basis.

The agreement also states that the UK will maintain "full alignment" with the rules of the Single Market and Customs Union. In effect, the UK will be a regulatory protectorate of Brussels - so what's the point of leaving the Single Market and Customs Union ?!

The hard Brexiteers are outraged with Leave Means Leave moaning about how we could end up with a worse deal than Norway - well who's fault is that ? You lot keep demanding withdrawal from the EEA !

so in other words we will be regulated by the EU but have no say on those regulations?

lol...

 

[Eagle_Eye]

The devil will be in the detail. This seems like a way to get through the next phase..... suitably vague

 

[Yossarian]

Both the pro- and anti-Brexiteers are applauding the same set of words, with both pretending that they got what they wanted whilst the other side caved in. )

 

[Donal Cozzie]

The devil will be in the detail. This seems like a way to get through the next phase..... suitably vague

"In the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom will maintain FULL ALIGNMENT with those rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation."

There isnt much vague to it IMO.

UK cannot enforce customs union or regulatory changes that make a seamless border in NI impossible i.e they wont leave the customs union and will change theirs to adapt to any changes the EU make.

Both the pro- and anti-Brexiteers are applauding the same set of words, with both pretending that they got what they wanted whilst the other side caved in. )

I've not seen any Brexiters applauding this? Unless you count MP'S instructed to do so to ease pressure on May, they've been vocally furious.

Ireland has done the UK a massive favour here tbh, leaving the customs union would have been disastrous for the UK economy.

 

[Markhor]

[MENTION=4930]Yossarian[/MENTION] [MENTION=7774]Robert[/MENTION] [MENTION=44089]Eagle_Eye[/MENTION] [MENTION=1842]James[/MENTION] @Donal_Cozzie

So the cat is out of the bag - David Davis admits this morning on Marr his aim is for a "Canada plus plus plus" trade deal. Michel Barnier's leaked memo last month also hints at a Canadian-style FTA (with no further inducements thereby ruling out Davis's non-defined "pluses"), so we are willing to endure years of struggle for a deal WORSE than existing arrangements.

Let's be clear what Canada's arrangement is. It does not significantly reduce non-tariff barriers (these barriers are far more relevant in today's world than tariffs which are already low) such as EU rules of origin requirements.

CETA does NOT guarantee Canadian firms an EU financial services "passport" which is significant for the UK economy that's heavily reliant on the financial sector. I wonder how the City of London who bankroll the Tory Party will react when presented with such a deal ! A Canadian-style FTA would not offer the same level of access to EU markets for UK businesses as our membership of the Single Market and Customs Union enables.

Now I can already hear the Leavers' cry "But Britain would get a better FTA due to its size and proximity etc" - what makes one think the EU would undermine its own Single Market and Customs Union by giving Britain a more favourable agreement ?! What incentive would the EU have to strike such a deal given it would be license for other third countries to tear up their own deals with the EU, and they've already warned the EU not to give Britain a more preferential arrangement.

The upside is that Canada doesn't have to sign up to Freedom of Movement, but are the British so steeped in their hatred of the sight of immigrants that they'd be willing to incur the economic damage of such an inadequate deal ? Theresa May has only herself to blame by ruling out continued membership of the Single Market and Customs Union - a sensible Norway/Switzerland-style deal that would respect the outcome of the referendum but protect our economy thus ending this saga tomorrow.