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Buying shares?

I had a look at Serica Energy a couple of months ago (on a tip) but decided against it. Looks good on paper, but I was invested elsewhere.

The problem I have is that there are so many good shares out there at the moment, and not enough capital to invest.
 
PXS up 40% today, probably in advance of Tuesday's launch by DSM of Fruitflow in Madrid.
 
jaspa888 said:
PXS up 40% today, probably in advance of Tuesday's launch by DSM of Fruitflow in Madrid.
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jaspa888. i've got about 5k to invest on shares, but the problem i have is i've got very limited knowledge on shares, help will be very much apreaciated on how to start, and what to invest in, and the time scale
 
saj786 said:
jaspa888. i've got about 5k to invest on shares, but the problem i have is i've got very limited knowledge on shares, help will be very much apreaciated on how to start, and what to invest in, and the time scale
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:facepalm:....... Brother I have done that before and lost some money.... Do not rely solely rely on others... everyone can get it wrong... even Jaspa8888 and I am sure he will be the first to admit that. He has however provided some very helpul posts in this thread... go through it and do you own research all the time.

If you cannot afford your money to be tied up for some time or in worst case scenario lose it... I suggest you are better of having it in your bank account....
 
saj786 said:
jaspa888. i've got about 5k to invest on shares, but the problem i have is i've got very limited knowledge on shares, help will be very much apreaciated on how to start, and what to invest in, and the time scale
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100% agree with Eagle Eye here.

Ultimately, it is your money and you have to decide what your risk/reward strategy is.

You have six options:

1) AIM: Very risky, as these are often illiquid companies. You are investing on potential, rather than assets and the stock is totally reliant on newsflow. You should be prepared to lose all your investment, but a stock can go up 100% in a day on good news. The market regulation is not robust, meaning there are more bad investment opportunities than good ones. But its all in the research and due diligence you do.

2) FTSE: Mush less risk as these are the biggest 100 companies in the land. Market valuation is largely based on assets, meaning that you are very unlikely to lose all your investment, and market regulations are much more robust, meaning that the companies are much better run. The risk and returns are much more modest (+/-3% on good/bad news), and you will usually receive dividends in a good year too.

3) Commodities: You can bet on commodities like oil, gold, silver, etc. Again the risk/rewards are high, but you need detailed knowledge of the sector.

4) Currency: Same as commodities, except you are betting on a foreign currency movements. Very volatile.

5) Cash ISA: Very safe, 0% risk, with certain banks offering you 3% fixed return. Exempt from CGT too. Boring but very safe.

6) Mixed Porfolio: All of the above in a balanced portfolio.

Only you can decide what is best for you. If you do decide to go into shares, then you need to pick a couple of sectors, and then do a LOT of research on those sectors. Oil & Gas, Mining and Pharmaceutical are the ones with the highest risk and rewards, but there are less volatile sectors out there (Defence, Business Services, etc.).

You will receive lots of tips on shares message boards, but there are lots of unscrupulous tipsters out there wanting to take advantage of your inexperience. They will use technical terms and buzz words to sound authoritative and knowledgable, but you need to make your own decisions.

Good luck.
 
Indeed it is. Very high volumes, but still no news. Worth noting the unusually high number of trades through PLUS. One theory is that someone is building up a stake by stealth.

Hitting resistance at 6p as there are many eager sellers who have been locked into losses since last year.
 
jaspa888 said:
Indeed it is. Very high volumes, but still no news. Worth noting the unusually high number of trades through PLUS. One theory is that someone is building up a stake by stealth.

Hitting resistance at 6p as there are many eager sellers who have been locked into losses since last year.
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I am thinking of selling my small stake as its hovering around 6.... I think its peaked for the time being even though news yet to come out which could see it soaring further.....
 
Its the most volatile share I've ever seen. It went from 2p to 23p (1000%) in about 3 months last year, and has fallen back to 3p for the last 6 months.

Its not a share I want to be out of though, as it will rocket to stupid levels once commercial deals are announced. And that could be at any time, especially as PXS/DSM are already 12 months into the protected proprietary 5-year period for the EFSA approval. They wont want to waste much more time...
 
The positives for this company are huge.....I was going to take short term profit.... But I will retain a long term interest as I think this company has a very bright future.....
 
Just came across this thread very interesting reading.

Have been trading in shares (privately) since late 2008. Had been thinking about it for a good 18 months before that but never really got involved until actual money was involved. Those who want to get involved will find it's hard unless you have some emotional involvement and the fear or losing money/making a profit. So I would always recommend to start small and understand how markets work.

I'm quite interested to learn how GKP has been mentioned quite a lot on this thread. I was told about this share by at least 3 or 4 people working in the city (not all professional investors mind) and finally took got in after a few months of following/research.
 
Agreed dblock.

There is a big difference between trading and investing, IMO. You can make more money short-term with trading, but I have found with bitter experience that overall, I make much more investing rather than trading.

With trading, you need to look at small movements in price, and need to trade in large volumes to make those small movements count. You can also be caught with your pants down if some newsflow arrives that was unexpected. To be an effective trader, you need level 2 datastream (£50/month) and several hours in front of your PC every day. It can take over your life, though the very experienced can make an excellent living out of it...

Investing is more about the long-term. Research the **** out of the stock and its sector, and then sit back and watch the anticipated growth over the coming months and even years. There is no better feeling than watching that 4p stock becoming a pound share. Of course, even with the best research, you will still pick out the occasional dog, but a balanced portfoilio will mean that you can absorb these losses.

Warren Buffet believes in investing rather than trading, and his mantra has always been to be invested for the long-term.
 
Actually I meant investing.. I used the term trading very loosely. The shortest I've kept a stock was 3 months and that was because it had risen by 60% and at that stage it just felt good to take my first 'profitable' stock.

I agree with jaspa that investing is far better and usually less costly.. in terms of time and emotions.

I started with ftse100 listed companies and then after a while began to look at ftse350 and aim shares - all these markets have their own dynamics and that should be taken into account with each one being more risky respectively.

Also I would recommend people to not get to greedy. Not everything will increase 10x original value..determine what you want to get out of your portfolio.
 
Not sure if these companies have been mentioned here before ? Both of these companies are listed in the UK but have major projects in Pakistan and Bangladesh so might be interesting to research.

The below extracts are taken from an e-mail from one of the top tipsters in UK penny share tipping circles Tom Bulford of Red Hot Penny Shares.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

How this penny share could solve Pakistan’s desperate energy crisis

14th October 2010

The lights have been going out across Pakistan. From rural villages to the capital Islamabad, residents regularly have to go without power for up to 15 hours a day. The economy is being crippled and there is a very simple reason for it.

For some months now the country’s power stations have been unable to afford to import the oil and gas that is needed to power the generators. And with the country’s own production of oil and gas going into decline this problem is only going to get worse.

But there is a ready solution – coal. The Government is determined to reduce the country’s reliance on imports by promoting the coal industry. And one penny share company that wants to help it on its way is ORACLE COALFIELDS (ORCP).

Last week I met Shahrukh Khan, Chief Executive and 24% shareholder of this PLUS Markets-quoted venture and he explained how Oracle’s coal mining project could alleviate Pakistan’s looming power deficit. And turn this penny share into mining titan in the process.

Pakistan’s desperate race against time

First and foremost I should say that Oracle’s license is on the Thar coalfield, which is in the south-eastern province of Sindh, well away from the troubles in the north of the country. It is 380kms from Karachi, with its population of an astonishing eighteen million, is well served by roads and unaffected by the recent floods.

Development of the Thar coalfield is seen as essential if Pakistan is to generate the power that it needs. Today it generates some 20,000 MW of power, with some 30% of this from hydro, 66% from oil and gas and the small balance split between nuclear and coal.

Demand for power is growing at some 7%-8% per year and the generators can barely keep pace. Next year demand for power is forecast to exceed supply by a slim 628MW. But by 2020 the Pakistan Government has forecast that this deficit will swell to over 14,000MW unless new capacity is added. With domestic production of oil and gas in decline and the Government determined that the country should not rely upon imported fuel, it wants to boost coal-fired generation using domestic supply.

How Oracle is seizing a three million ton opportunity

So Oracle has taken a license on Block VI of the Thar coalfield, which is thought to host over 175 billion tonnes of coal. This is not of the highest quality and so although the China Northeast Coalfield Geological Survey Bureau has assessed the field, China is not intent upon acquiring its output for its own iron and steel industry. But this lignite coal is good enough for power stations and the energy intensive cement industry, and so Oracle is working to exploit its mine in conjunction with two such customers.

Principal of these is the Karachi Electricity Supply Company (KESC), which wants to build a power station beside the mine. Given the propensity for things to happen slowly in parts of Asia, it is reassuring to know that the KESC is owned by the Dubai-based Abraaj Capital, the largest private equity firm in the Middle East and one that should be able to push things along. This will be crucial because the majority of the mine’s projected annual output of three million tons is earmarked for KESC’s power station so any delays here would seriously inconvenience Oracle.

So to allow for the possibility that it will be producing coal before the power station is able to take it, Oracle has signed a second agreement with Lucky Cement, the largest cement producer in Pakistan and a major exporter to the Middle East. With energy accounting for over 70% of the production cost of cement and the world market price of coal being driven higher by Chinese demand, Lucky is also keen to find alternative sources of supply.

How to turn a 0.43p tonne of coal in an £18 haul

The greatest risks to Oracle’s plans lie with the need to attract some $300m to finance the construction of the mine in the face of Pakistan’ volatile political situation, while there is also a risk that its customers will not be ready to take the coal when production starts.

But if it all comes together then Oracle could be a winner. It has a JORC compliant coal resource of 1.4bn tonnes which can be mined through what the industry calls a ‘muck operation’ – in other words an open pit operation that begins with the removal of the overburden. Edison Investment Research has pointed out that Oracle’s current stock market value of £6m values each tonne of coal in the resource at just 0.43p. To this must be added the $300m capital investment needed to produce 3m tonnes per year which, assuming a twenty year mine life, equates to $5 per tonne of mined coal. ‘Once developed,’ Edison points out, ‘investors will have access to a profit margin of $15 -$30 per tonne’. That equates to the potential of around £18 per tonne of coal.

In summary both as a project and as a penny share investment Oracle makes a lot of sense. The next step will be a Bankable Feasibility Study which, according to Shahrukh Khan is being prepared to the most exacting international standards. Armed with this Oracle is looking to step up from PLUS markets to AIM early next year. As Pakistan races against time, I will be keeping a close eye on Oracle’s role in solving the country’s desperate energy crisis.
 
Could it be that two of the world’s bigger coal projects are finally going to get the green light? Certainly the way that the share prices of GCM RESOURCES (GCM) and STRATEGIC NATURAL RESOURCES (SNRP) have been climbing of late suggests that good news could be just around the corner.

Let me start with GCM. Its focus is on the Phulbari coal project. Such is its scale and potential importance to the economy of Bangladesh that GCM’s share price soared in 2005, hitting a high of 919p. Then trouble struck in the shape of rioting by some of 40,000 rural dwellers who were threatened with forced relocation. The Government of the day backed off but hopes were revived when a new Government, democratically elected in 2008, vowed to make power generation a top priority.

The need for electricity is evident. With a population of 160 million, Bangladesh is one of the most densely populated countries on the planet. It is also one of the poorest. According to the World Bank over 80% of the population survive on the equivalent of less than US$2 a day and GDP per capita, at around US$1,500 per annum, is a fraction of the world average.

And yet Bangladesh has been achieving economic growth of 6% per year and has been identified by Goldman Sachs as one of the countries with the potential to become an economic powerhouse of the 21st century. But if it is going to realize this potential it will need power. And that leaves it with a very simple choice...How coal can save Bangladesh from total ruin

At present Bangladesh has the capacity to generate around 4000MW of power. But with demand closer to 5000MW regular blackouts are hampering the efficiency of existing industries and agriculture. In recognition the Government, in pursuit of accelerated GDP growth of 8%-10% per year, has said that a 50% increase in electricity generation is needed over the next five years.

That is a ‘big ask’. Making it harder still is the fact that Bangladesh is running out of the gas that currently fires 90% of its electricity. So the obvious answer is to exploit the country’s huge coal reserves. Phulbari has a coal resource of 572m tons, and is the only project that has been subjected to a full Environmental and Social Impact Assessment. It alone could support a power generating capacity of 4000MW, and could transform the outlook for electricity availability in the country.

So the question now is whether and when the Government will give Phulbari the green light. Some clues suggest that this could be imminent.

The first of these is that POLO RESOURCES (PRL), has said that approval for Phulbari would make a ‘substantially undervalued asset’. PRL has a 29.8% stake, and is known as a shrewd investor in resource projects around the world.

Next, the local media have reported that the Bangladesh Government has decided to form a Committee to establish a ‘coal mine city’ at Dinajpu, convenient for Phulbari. And acknowledging past problems, M. Mizbahuddin, secretary of Bangladesh’s Energy Division has said that ‘rehabilitation of the affected people of the coal mining area and the fixing of compensation packages in consultation with the affected people is the main task of the committee.’

So after years on the brink of disaster, Bangladesh looks to have bitten the bullet – the government now looks to be backing coal in a big way.
 
You are spot on on GCM... (I have Indonesian play CHL on my list as well)

Coal seems to be where the clever long term money is going

The decision by Indonesia's Bakrie Group to climb into bed with serial trader Nathaniel Rothschild and reverse Indonesian miners Berau Coal and PT Bumi into his Londonlisted Vallar Group, to eventually create an Indonesian 'Footsie' coal champion, attracted buyers to Western Coal, 36.5p better at 454.5p. Dealers said it is the purest coal play in the market and should benefit from the Indonesian deal.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/ar...RT-Brokers-feel-urge-merge.html#ixzz15aDNsAfi
 
I do like to keep an eye on Pakistanis running UK listed companies... so I was surprised to find I'd missed this re VYKE a serial disaster area in the past. Looks like one of our favourite cricketers sorting himself out a new career ? ;-) :p



Mohammad Asif, Chief Executive of Vyke, said: "We are delighted that the Board of BLS continues to show its commitment to Vyke further demonstrating its belief that Vyke has an attractive platform through which BLS intends to direct telecoms traffic. We have now concluded extensive and successful testing of these services. Bonjour (through BLS and its affiliates) is determined to deliver on its obligations under the joint venture agreement and Vyke looks forward to being in a position to provide further updates to the market at the appropriate time."

http://fool.uk-wire.com/Article.aspx?id=201011180700073874W
 
Excellent RNS from RRL this morning.

Estimated share of 1bn oil barrels in Georgia - far higher than even the most optimistic had predicted.

Not quite the next GKP but should still be a multi-bagger from here. And that is before Puntland (if ever) happens.
 
Jaspa - whats with PXS....profit taking or worry over not many concrete deals?
 
Jaspa, not a fan of RRL.

You can get purer exposure and more gearing to Puntland via TSX listed AOI (Africa Oil Corp)

The Georgian estimates are just that. I prefer junior oils who are targetting big provinces with big partners. e.g. BPC (Bahamas Petroleum Corp) targetting potential 22bn boe in JV with Statoil and with likes of majors/supermajors such as Gazprom/Repsol/Petronas drilling across the maritime boundary in Cuban waters.
 
jaspa888 said:
Excellent RNS from RRL this morning.

Estimated share of 1bn oil barrels in Georgia - far higher than even the most optimistic had predicted.

Not quite the next GKP but should still be a multi-bagger from here. And that is before Puntland (if ever) happens.
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Hi mate. Just out of interest. When do you personally decide when the right time is to sell. For example RRL jumped quite a bit when do you decide to cash in. Gut instinct or a science behind it?
 
Eagle_Eye said:
Jaspa - whats with PXS....profit taking or worry over not many concrete deals?
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I think the recent fall is down to a number of reasons:

- the number of people day-trading the share for a quick buck, especially with the volatile history of PXS
- Rising Stars and DSMV (long-term seed capitalists) still selling down their stakes
- investors locked in for a long period deciding to take a small profit

I am in for the long-term because the SP will be massive if/when they get those first comnmercial deals. PXS is still the only company with a product with EFSA 13.5 approval, and now that big companies are guaranteed a decent supply chain via the DSM joint venture, the deals will come.

The product (Fruitflow) is fantastic, but PXS is still run by boffins. Hence its IR record is poor, and that has put a lot of private inestors off.
 
pia786 said:
Jaspa, not a fan of RRL.

You can get purer exposure and more gearing to Puntland via TSX listed AOI (Africa Oil Corp)

The Georgian estimates are just that. I prefer junior oils who are targetting big provinces with big partners. e.g. BPC (Bahamas Petroleum Corp) targetting potential 22bn boe in JV with Statoil and with likes of majors/supermajors such as Gazprom/Repsol/Petronas drilling across the maritime boundary in Cuban waters.
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The reason I like RRL is that its SP is under-pinned by its proven Texan resource. Now with Georgia, we have further stability.

And with AOI in Puntland, RRL has a free ride until AOI spend its $50m ear-marked for exploration in Puntland.

I agree with your last paragraph though. I will have a look at those companies - my problem is that I am locked into a lot of stocks with overdue news and dont want to make the same mistake (impatience, grass is greener elsewhere, etc) that I made with CHAR.
 
DeadlyVenom said:
Hi mate. Just out of interest. When do you personally decide when the right time is to sell. For example RRL jumped quite a bit when do you decide to cash in. Gut instinct or a science behind it?
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I am not a big believer in technical analysis (TA) in AIM stocks, because they are so news-driven.

My selling strategy depends on the type of punt I have had: if I am waiting for good news and it delivers, then I will sell when news materialises as a profit is a profit. If the stock is more of a long-term slow-burner (SXX), I may occasionally top-slice on good news, but will then stake-build on the retrace/dips as there is still much more potential to come.
 
Jaspa888 mate I am tempted to invest medium/longterm but dont know where to start off.I can afford to invest £100/200 per month and take it from there.How does the whole thing work and what would you advise for a fresh starter?Thanks.
 
My nephews started investing recently. (One is up 200% in just a few months and now thinks it is 'easy' !)

Two pieces of advice I gave them was

1. Research :- stocks/investing. Books i read early on were Jim Slater's 'Zulu Principle' and Edwin Lefevre's 'Reminiscences of a Stock Operator'. Lots of professional hedge fund investors often reference that latter book.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reminiscences_of_a_Stock_Operator

http://www.incademy.com/courses/Ten-great-investors/-Warren-Buffett/5/1040/10002

2. Only invest what you are prepared to lose.
 
Excellent advice pia786.

I have met so many people who base their investment on other people's opinions, and then blame everyone but themselves when the **** hits the fan. Its your money, you are solely responsible for your investment decisions.

Also, 2009 was a once-in-a-generation anomaly, where even blue chip stocks lost so much of their true value. You could stick a pin in the FTSE/AIM, and just about every share doubled in value. There were massive gains to be made once some sanity returned to the market, which it did by August 2009. My brother made thousands watching Barclays go from 40p to 400p in just a few months.

2010 has been more problematic as those multi-bagger opportunities still exist, but in a far fewer stocks so research is now king. But many investors have lost much/most of their 2009 gains by thinking the easy times would continue, and not researching their investments enough.
 
came across this today and thought worth sharing

The 22 Rules of Trading

Dennis Gartman

1. Never, under any circumstance add to a losing position.... ever! Nothing more need be said; to do otherwise will eventually and absolutely lead to ruin!

2. Trade like a mercenary guerrilla. We must fight on the winning side and be willing to change sides readily when one side has gained the upper hand.

3. Capital comes in two varieties: Mental and that which is in your pocket or account. Of the two types of capital, the mental is the more important and expensive of the two. Holding to losing positions costs measurable sums of actual capital, but it costs immeasurable sums of mental capital.

4. The objective is not to buy low and sell high, but to buy high and to sell higher. We can never know what price is "low." Nor can we know what price is "high." Always remember that sugar once fell from $1.25/lb to 2 cent/lb and seemed "cheap" many times along the way.

5. In bull markets we can only be long or neutral, and in bear markets we can only be short or neutral. That may seem self-evident; it is not, and it is a lesson learned too late by far too many.

6. "Markets can remain illogical longer than you or I can remain solvent," according to our good friend, Dr. A. Gary Shilling. Illogic often reigns and markets are enormously inefficient despite what the academics believe.

7. Sell markets that show the greatest weakness, and buy those that show the greatest strength. Metaphorically, when bearish, throw your rocks into the wettest paper sack, for they break most readily. In bull markets, we need to ride upon the strongest winds... they shall carry us higher than shall lesser ones.

8. Try to trade the first day of a gap, for gaps usually indicate violent new action. We have come to respect "gaps" in our nearly thirty years of watching markets; when they happen (especially in stocks) they are usually very important.

9. Trading runs in cycles: some good; most bad. Trade large and aggressively when trading well; trade small and modestly when trading poorly. In "good times," even errors are profitable; in "bad times" even the most well researched trades go awry. This is the nature of trading; accept it.

10. To trade successfully, think like a fundamentalist; trade like a technician. It is imperative that we understand the fundamentals driving a trade, but also that we understand the market's technicals. When we do, then, and only then, can we or should we, trade.

11. Respect "outside reversals" after extended bull or bear runs. Reversal days on the charts signal the final exhaustion of the bullish or bearish forces that drove the market previously. Respect them, and respect even more "weekly" and "monthly," reversals.

12. Keep your technical systems simple. Complicated systems breed confusion; simplicity breeds elegance.

13. Respect and embrace the very normal 50-62% retracements that take prices back to major trends. If a trade is missed, wait patiently for the market to retrace. Far more often than not, retracements happen... just as we are about to give up hope that they shall not.

14. An understanding of mass psychology is often more important than an understanding of economics. Markets are driven by human beings making human errors and also making super-human insights.

15. Establish initial positions on strength in bull markets and on weakness in bear markets. The first "addition" should also be added on strength as the market shows the trend to be working. Henceforth, subsequent additions are to be added on retracements.

16. Bear markets are more violent than are bull markets and so also are their retracements.

17. Be patient with winning trades; be enormously impatient with losing trades. Remember it is quite possible to make large sums trading/investing if we are "right" only 30% of the time, as long as our losses are small and our profits are large.

18. The market is the sum total of the wisdom ... and the ignorance...of all of those who deal in it; and we dare not argue with the market's wisdom. If we learn nothing more than this we've learned much indeed.

19. Do more of that which is working and less of that which is not: If a market is strong, buy more; if a market is weak, sell more. New highs are to be bought; new lows sold.

20. The hard trade is the right trade: If it is easy to sell, don't; and if it is easy to buy, don't. Do the trade that is hard to do and that which the crowd finds objectionable. Peter Steidelmeyer taught us this twenty five years ago and it holds truer now than then.

21. There is never one cockroach! This is the "winning" new rule submitted by our friend, Tom Powell.

22. All rules are meant to be broken: The trick is knowing when... and how infrequently this rule may be invoked!

http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/rules.html
 
RRL still has some way to go IMO, but may look for an exit today to put into XEL.

XEL could go upto 450p on good drilling updates next week.

What do you think pia786?
 
Been interested in xel for a while.. Just can't seem to buy it on my Hsbc share dealing account. I wonder if anyone else has encountered this.
 
XEL have never been a fan of it as it is a heavy oil play. It does rely to some extent on Government subsidy and a high prevailing oil price. Fair play to those who have invested. I note the house broker was moving to neutral this week so i'd beware as this recent run looks like retail investors buying on the hope of a good drill result. Generally in my experience pricing in good news prior to a binary outcome is not a good idea. Usually with these oil and gas plays you can wait for the actuall drill result and buy after the result with reduced risk rather than try to pre-empt the news.

e.g. you could have bought RKH at 60-80p after they announced an oil strike whereas prior to the news you would have paid 40-100p depending on where you bought

the only heavy oil play I have been involved with is NPE and that was because it had 'lighter' less viscous heavy oil and some very good light oil discoveries

NPE (own Mariner/Kraken) XEL (own Bentley)

2wf4j9i.jpg
 
pia786 said:
Looks like GCM had a good finish to the week.
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i get the message when u say do alot of research, but how and where do you get started about investing, is it through the bank, stock market, i dont have clue, if u could give us some solid advice will be well apreciated
 
saj786 said:
i get the message when u say do alot of research, but how and where do you get started about investing, is it through the bank, stock market, i dont have clue, if u could give us some solid advice will be well apreciated
Click to expand...

I'm not an expert and you probably want to wait for the advice of others as well - but I think a good way to start from an initial interest point of view is to think of 2/3 companies which you think are successful and will be successful in the near future (simply based on any knowledge you have).

Open up a virtual portfolio (there are many available on the web) and buy those shares and start to follow how they do. This gives you some emotional attachment (even though you've not bought the stock) which is quite important and start looking out for news, look at past performance etc.. and basically you get a feel for the market.

That is the my interest developed.
 
As I said before read a book like 'Zulu Principle' the basic idea behind that book is along the lines of there are very few experts on the Zulu tribes so if you as an amateuer start doing research on it and specialise in it you can very quickly become an expert.

Similarly with stocks you can not become an expert on the thousands of stock covered by thousands of analysts but you can become a relative expert if you concentrate your resources on studying one particular industry or company.

For example if you start with some knowledge of Pakistan study companies with projects in Pakistan ? e.g. Oracle Coalfields (you might actually have more knowledge about the environment Oracle operates in than even many highly paid City analysts who have never left the comfort of their offices).

Or if you have an interest in Sport start by researching sports related companies ? Tottenham Hotspur and a few other football clubs are listed on the stock exchange. Over time you may come to see what causes stock prices to rise and fall.

Or if you work for a company which has shares listed on a stock exchange follow the share price and see how it moves and try to understand why.

This all requires time, patience and effort. So it is up to you to put in the research. I found losing real money was the best teacher for me. You learn the lessons much more quickly.

For what it is worth I have a particular interest in the Resources area whether it be 'Energy' resources like Oil&Gas or Industrial commodities such as Copper/Nickel/Iron Ore because over the long term China and India's growth will require more resources and demand will outstrip supply because the demand is unlimited and growing whilst resources are scarce and dwindling. In the long term that might mean a war (military or economic) for resources between the East and West or between India and China.

So if you want to start researching on companies which could meet the insatiable demand of India and China where do you start? Or if you just want to be in some of the hot stocks of this year which have gone up 5-10x (XEL, RRR etc) where do you start ?

Here are two good websites :-

http://www.minesite.com
http://www.oilbarrel.com

on those websites you will find

1. Daily News on companies in their sector on the homepages

2. Research notes written by Professional analysts :-

Minesite : - http://www.minesite.com/investors/brokers_notes.html
Oilbarrel :- http://www.oilbarrel.com/investors_economy/brokers_notes.html

3. Forums that Private Investors can attend to see Management of these companies present their stories :-

http://www.minesite.com/msforums.html
http://www.oilbarrel.com/oilbarrel_forums.html

4. Presentations/Webcasts from these forums setting out the investment cases for companies :-

http://www.oilbarrel.com/conference_presentations.html
http://www.minesite.com/webcasts
 
This is just an example of my research process but I think you'll find it all boils down to the same thing really. But having research process is one thing the overarching philosophy and your underlying psychology is another thing you have to understand which is why 'Edwin Lefevre's "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" is so good. The guy operated in the early 20th Century but his battles with his own mind are classic and timeless the guy made and lost several fortunes over his life.

This is how a Professional Investment Management company describes its research process :-

http://www.bluealphafunds.com/research-process.aspx

Research Process

The investment process is primarily driven by bottom-up company research.

We have four approaches in searching for investment ideas:

Screening

This is broad based and covers factors such as changes in earnings forecasts, valuation metrics, price behaviour, and price performance. This allows for multiple screening approaches in order to focus the research process towards areas of interest.



Broad and extensive reading

As a team we read all relevant business and investment publications both locally and internationally.



Management and Industry Interaction

Attending industry wide and company specific presentations, speaking to peers in the investment industry, talking to industry insiders and specialists, and assessing the impact of surprise events.



Market Consensus

By reviewing both performing and underperforming stocks, as well as consensus earnings we seek out situations where we believe there to be the potential for excessive optimism or pessimism.



On the basis of any of the above activities we identify stocks that are worthy of further scrutiny. These ideas are then subject to more intensive research.

The detailed research process involves:

I. Studying company statutory reports and presentations.

II. Reviewing broker research – we have access to research from a number of international and local broking firms.

III. Attending company presentations/participating in visits to the company. We attend company presentations on an ongoing basis, and have direct contact with company management. In particular we try to establish management contacts within the mid- to smaller capitalisation companies.

IV. Based on our research and additional financial modeling of the company, we formulate a view of the intrinsic value of the stock – either as a standalone investment or on a relative basis as part of a pair trading strategy. Valuation techniques include discounted cash flows, book and replacement cost comparisons, return on equity and PE relative valuations.

V. Fundamental trades are ultimately structured around an investment thesis – “the story” – which considers qualitative issues, potential downside versus the upside and potential catalysts.

The investment thesis is then debated amongst the team. In addition to deriving a fundamental estimation of the value of a stock, cognisance is taken of catalysts that may move a share price such as: news flow, potential for corporate action and potential for earnings surprises. Although research is primarily bottom-up, we moderate stock views with a top down overlay based on our best estimation on the outlook for macro factors such as interest rates, GDP growth, inflation and the Rand. Research is ongoing and positions are monitored with respect to additional information or stock price movements.
 
Pia786 you seem very knowledgeable bro, I've got a copy of "Reminiscenses of a Stock Operator" and some of the quotes are legendary! For any budding investors google "Reminisces of a stock operator" and there are a few free e-books available make sure you read, re-read and understand what Jesse Livermore is saying.

I notice that you have a special interest in the O+G sector, a company I have recently got into is Bowleven (BLVN) at just over £2, they are currently drilling in cameroon with a possibility of striking upto 3.7 billion barrels, (Fox have an unrisked valuation of £18+, current sp is £3).

Have you looked into BLVN and if so what is your view?

Your findings would be much appreciated!
 
Been doing it as a job for a long time (with mixed success) but always learning!

BLVN saw the management present at a recent Oilbarrel conference and the guy who runs the company was a bit young,glib and promotional which put me off. Having said that

1. In the current 'bull' market environment these are the sort of management teams who prosper.

2. Last company who I saw at a Minesite conference who engendered the same reaction were the SOLG guys and their shares went from 5p to 80p just a few months later !

I have not looked at BLVN in depth but the 'headline' stuff that i do know i'd summarise as they have decent 'address'/acreage in West Africa and frequently these companies who drill successfully in new basins often are not valued correctly for the de-risking of the rest of their prospects. So if I was long BLVN i'd stick with it now. Would not pay too much attention to what Fox Davies say they are pretty small and insignificant in City circles. Cannacord are more reputable and some of their comments on BLVN feature here as coming from 'the sector watcher'

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/11/09/398801/markets-live/
 
GCM - have followed the company for years, from the days in 2004 when it went on a run from below 100p to over 900p in the space of months and more recently in the last few years when it has gone from 13p to the present 270p

The interest in it revolves around the fact that it owns a 500 million tonne high quality coking and thermal coal deposit in Bangladesh right on the doorstep of India and China. 'Rule of thumb' acquisition multiples for coal deposits of such size and quality would suggest GCM shares should trade at 800-1600p/share however there is a huge political risk discount attached to the shares because successive Bangladeshi Governments have failed to take any positive steps towards allowing GCM to start mining that coal.

But after several years the current Government finally seem to be ready to give the go-ahead.

The most public sign being the publication of a long awaited (3-4 years!) Coal Policy on a Bangladeshi Government website for 'public comment and consultation'. The closing period for that consultation is November 25th.

The Asian Development Bank who have previously said they would partly fund the project have recently expressed dismay at how long some of the projects are taking. This particular project would add hugely to Bangladesh GDP and allow them to develop other industries and be more self-sufficient.

Directors of Polo Resources (POL) a company with a 29% shareholding in GCM have been buying £1m+ worth of shares in their own company POL recently. They would be prevented by Insider Dealing rules from trading in GCM shares but by buying POL shares they could always claim in defence they were only buying shares in a company which had only indirect interest in GCM.

Finally GCM are due to hold their AGM on December 6th. So I'd expect some news soon.

GCM shares trade at a huge discount to where they should based on the economic value of their resources but they rely on a single binary decision from a no-doubt corrupt or inept Bangladeshi administration so maybe the discount is fair. The stock has risen steadily for months with occasional spikes but if they do get the go-ahead I reckon the shares would trade in the 500-1000p range in pretty short order.
 
reckon BMD is a charlatan

does not seem to have much idea of how the market works, at best is some junior gimp in some back office function

hurt a lot of people with the Tower Resources debacle early on and has since concentrated on lower risk appraisal plays such as Encore and Xcite since then and most of his views simply parrot those of good commentators on the BB's
 
pia786 said:
reckon BMD is a charlatan

does not seem to have much idea of how the market works, at best is some junior gimp in some back office function

hurt a lot of people with the Tower Resources debacle early on and has since concentrated on lower risk appraisal plays such as Encore and Xcite since then and most of his views simply parrot those of good commentators on the BB's
Click to expand...

My feelings exactly. I think he lost a lot of friends with the TRP duster, but I can see the lemmings following his every word again on XEL. Dont people ever learn?

You looked at PXS recently?
 
Missed PXS the first time. BIOS not really my thing. Pretty much 100% in resources.
 
Been in PXS for about 5 years, but didnt sell on last year's ramp.

Perhaps I have made the cardinal sin of getting emotional about a stock, but still believe this will be big in 2011. And the best part for me is that its impossible to do a NAV as no-one knows the number or type of deals PXS could sign, so upside is open-ended.
 
any of the dentist fraternity able to comment on this company ? new listing on AIM today (3DD)

http://fool.uk-wire.com/Article.aspx?id=201011220800035379W

On announcement of the Admission to AIM, James Noble, Chairman commented: "We are delighted to commence trading on AIM this morning. 3D has transformed itself over the last yearand has reached an exciting stage in its development where the Board considers that its strategic objectives can be more readily achieved by a listing on AIM.



We believe that our first product to market, the CarieScan PRO has the ability to transform dental care. We have shipped our first orders to Patterson Dental, who we recently appointed to distribute the PRO in the USA and Canada and, with the proceeds from the placing we are now proceeding to scale-up manufacture of the PRO to target these substantial markets fully. We look forward to reporting further progress in the years ahead."
 
jaspa888 said:
My feelings exactly. I think he lost a lot of friends with the TRP duster, but I can see the lemmings following his every word again on XEL. Dont people ever learn?

You looked at PXS recently?
Click to expand...

So you dont think xel will hit the 500p + mark in the coming months?
 
goldleaf said:
So you dont think xel will hit the 500p + mark in the coming months?
Click to expand...

XEL is all about the flow rates. Many unsubstantiated rumours coming out that flow rates will be good (to be announced in the next 10-15 days) - thats where the 500p valuation is coming from.

On the downside, part of the potential good news is already priced in, so expect the SP to fall to sub 200p if flow rates are poor.

I have taken a small punt that rates will be good, but it is a blind punt.
 
I know of some of the people mentioned in that Reuters article.

Regarding some of the companies mentioned. I think sometimes you get the critics you deserve.

Despite what they say about Bramhill the impression I got was that he got sacked and the company have swept the supposed legal action under a carpet.
 
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for anyone interested in these companies...


Cadogan Petroleum Plc
Leed Petroleum Plc
Niche Group Plc
Xcite Energy Resources Ltd

9th December 2010
9.30 am - 1.30 pm

The Brewery, Chiswell Street, London EC1Y 4SD

http://www.oilbarrel.com/oilbarrel_forums.html

Oilbarrell usually put on a nice buffet lunch afterwards as well !
 
jaspa888 said:
I wouldnt have minded going to that, but its my company Xmas party that day

Interesting advice from the famous pi bonobo77 from a year ago:

http://brokermandaniel.com/a-must-read-for-every-serious-private-investor/
Click to expand...

Thanks for the link, I like the "Always buy into the company, not the share price. And just accept that you can’t be in them all. As long as you back more winners than losers, you’ll be OK."

What do you do for a day job jaspa if you dont mind me asking?

I'm sure you're sat infront of a screen all day checking share prices like me :)

I'm in sales, plenty of spare time on my hands.
 
I am in finance, though get plenty of time to study the markets when staying in hotels several times a week.

I used to do the Level 2 stuff a few years ago, but - much like bonobo77 - found out I was not very good at trading. So I stick to investing now, where a few pennies on best entry point is not that significant in the long-term.
 
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http://www.minesite.com/minews/sing...t-is-now-securely-in-place-next-stop-a/1.html

November 25, 2010

With The Bankable Study On Its Pakistani Coal Project Now Fully Funded, Oracle Coalfields Gets Set For An Aim Listng
By Alastair Ford



It’s somewhat ironic that after all the trouble Shahrukh Khan had in convincing the international investment community that Pakistan was a safe place to do business, it was actually trouble in the West’s own back yard that stymied Oracle’s plans to move from London’s PLUS market to Aim last year. “2009 was mixed, actually, very slow”, says Shahrukh. “Funding was a struggle.” But it wasn’t floods or terrorism that made it so, it was the Western World’s very own new best friends, the bankers and governments.
And Shahrukh’s by no means the only mining company executive who found it tough last year. The Aim market was a virtual wasteland as far as new listings were concerned, with only an occasional secondary raise to disrupt the otherwise undisturbed roll of the tumbleweeds. This year has hardly been a breeze either. The first half was only marginally better than 2009, and sentiment then soured over the summer. It was only with the sensational upward run taken by gold when autumn got underway that the appetite for new listings finally returned. And even then market conditions aren’t exactly benign. Nick Clarke, who recently took Central Asian Metals to the market in what was, at the time, the biggest Aim fundraising of the year, told Minesite the other day that institutions are still being very selective. “It’s not a slam dunk out there”, he said. No indeed, and a couple of listings have been pulled lately, too.

Which is why Shahrukh is taking his time. After all, he can afford to, on several counts. Much of the work required for Oracle’s Aim listing was completed back in 2008, when the original plans for listing were put in place, just ahead of the implosion of Lehman Brothers. That means that this time round, once the green light is given, the process can be initiated and completed relatively rapidly. More significantly, the company’s funding worries have eased considerably over the past few months. In July, Oracle’s new broker Libertas helped bring in £1 million of new money, the largest resources company fundraise on PLUS of the year. That was enough to set going a bankable feasibility study on Oracle’s Thar coal prospect in Sindh province, and enough to convince other onlookers that Oracle was very much still alive, and kicking.

One such observer was Andrew Bell, the man behind several junior mining companies, including recent market darling Red Rock Resources, which is closing in on gold production, and Regency Mines, which is now diversifying into a full-blown mining investment vehicle. Behind the scenes, sits the patient Bruce Rowan, a man who’s now beginning to make money on even the most speculative of his investments. Bruce’s Starvest investment company is a shareholder in both Regency and Oracle, and Starvest and Oracle share a board member in Tony Scott. So it was just a short hop and a skip to put Shahrukh together with Andrew Bell, and presto, a new partnership was born.

Regency will put just over £1 million into Oracle following a subscription for shares at a price of 5.5p. That’s a nice premium over the 3p price at which the money was raised in July, but then Sharrukh’s not been idle in putting the July money to work. Some top names in mining consulting are nosing around the Thar property at this very moment, working up the feasibility study. SRK is in charge, Wardells is doing the environmental work, Aquaterra is taking a specialised look at water table issues, and coal experts Dargo will lend a bit of commodity-specific expertise. Four rigs are currently at work, and the aim is to deliver a definitive feasibility study by the end of the first half of 2011, and a bankable study by the end of the same year. All of which is now fully funded.

One box that can be ticked straight away relates to the size of the resource. There’s no doubt that it’s there, and that it’s big. “It’s enough to do a mega project”, says Shahrukh, “though it’s important that we keep our feet on the ground”. So far Oracle has booked 1.4 billion tonnes of measured lignite coal, of which 371 million tonnes is proven. That’s more than enough to be going on with. There’s not much doubt either that it can be mined relatively cheaply. Whether there’ll be a mine-mouth power station next door, as envisaged in an Oracle MOU with UAE-backed Pakistani power company, remains to be seen. But the company’s already identified other markets. Local champion Lucky Cement looks lined up to take enough initial supply to generate serious early cash flow for Oracle whatever happens

Pakistan has always been a hard sell from the political angle, but from the point of view of potential growth the investment case is unanswerable. Andrew Bell’s shown himself over the past year or so to be a man with an eye for an attractive deal, and the idea of providing coal to go into a power station in a country that suffers daily power outages of six or seven hours at a time makes perfect sense. Power generation is a political hot potato in Pakistan, with all parties in favour of new projects, but investment thin on the ground. That means that Oracle’s aspirations may meet with relatively little official opposition, especially as Thar sits in the middle of a desert, and will cause minimal disruption to the local populace. But first things first, let’s have a look at the economics and see if the company can get on to Aim.
 
saj786 said:
this looks a potential good investment, is it worth investing in now or down the line
Click to expand...

I personally wouldnt touch any company operating in Pakistan, but that is because I have run a business there and am perhaps embittered with how unstable and corrupt the place is.

Oracle Minefields is currently quoted only on PLUS market, but it may be worth waiting until they move to AIM next year to see how the bigger AIM market values the company.
 
would second jaspa's opinion

Pakistan is far too corrupt to invest in as it is and furthermore PLUS is a very 'lightly' regulated and illiquid market so as a beginner you may get your head ripped off by the rapacious buggers on the other side of your trade

I follow the Oracle story but have no investment in it

GCM Resources (Bangladesh coal project) on the other hand looks to be on the verge of a very exciting time and I have bought more recently.
 
pia786

I heard a source of mine reckon that SMDR are rumoured to have found 150MM, and that it may be announced this/next week. Got a view on it?
 
Have liked the idea of SMDR but never got round to looking at it properly just had brief skim of the RNS this morning . Will have a look.
 
One of my mates (ex-ML) has just told me that there are BIG rumours in the City of a DES oil strike. Heard anything?
 
Sounds like the work of some mischevious day traders.

They did the same number on XEL last week by spreading rumours that the flow rate analysis was to be delayed. ANd gullible pi's fell for it...
 
What do you lads make of Bahamas Petrol?

IN THE FINANCIAL TIMES:
The 2 analysts offering 12 month price targets for BPC Ltd (BPC:LSE) have a median target of 753.72, with a high estimate of 1,012 and a low estimate of 495.63. The median estimate represents a 5,283.74% increase from the last price of 14.00
 
BPC I have been an enthusiastic buyer of BPC for some time. They had a 'flash crash' down to 2p area just a few months ago where I bought more at 2-3p.

This run has been amazing but when Investment Banks as big as Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch take an interest in such a small company you can bet they aren't doing it out of altruism.

I suspect they reckon they will make a lot of money out of it.

Russia/China/US all reckon this area is of strategic importance.
Major oil companies are targeting the area.

BPC have almost exclusive licences to the area. It is a great story. But But But

It could be huge, but I'd be careful buying after a 400-500% move in the space of a few months !

And Directors were selling stock at 3,4,5,6p just a few months back !
 
By the way that Financial Times 'research' is just a computer 'model' so 'garbage in, garbage out'.

The actual price target Goldman Sachs have is 16p and no sensible analyst would publish a price taregt as outlandish as that claimed by the FT computer.
 
DES have been 'short' throughout (as a paired trade) with RKH. In my opinion the DES guys are a shambles (the sons of an MP who did a trip to Falklands prior to the Falklands War and realised there might be oil). Met the RKH chairman (a real industry player) shortly after RKH's strike and got the inference 'from the horses mouth' that is was a big strike.

No idea on the recent rumours. Reckon DES is overpriced even if they find oil to be honest.
 
IF any sophisticated knowledgeable risk-aware investors want a punt on a very low priced goldie in a very prospective area look at PLUS quoted Sheba Exploration (SHE)

Mkt Cap is about £2m. (bummer to buy though spread is outrageous so you'll lose 40-50% of your investment straight away , you really have to believe in gold and expect this to go up 5-10x to make up for the risk you'd take on)

They will do a fund raising soon.

But they are in Ethiopia which is shaping up to be prospective all of a sudden and shares similarities geologically with some decent finds in that area e.g. Centamin in Egypt ? some stuff in Saudi ? (yes a big area !)

DYOR etc

I have chucked in about £100. ;-)

http://www.shebaexploration.com/Corporate.html
 
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I bought a junior gold minor on TSX/NYSE - Fronteer Gold Inc in September. It is up 34 percent now, my best pick yet but I took such a small position, damn it :(
 
more re Sheba Exploration :-

From the CEO of Stratex:

Stratex recently acquired 5.6% of Ethiopia-focussed Sheba Exploration plus an earn into Sheba’s Shehagne project and a joint venture with Sheba for other projects in Ethiopia. What’s so compelling about Ethiopia and Sheba Exploration?


Well Ethiopia geology-wise is just as exciting, for slightly different reasons, as Turkey and without doubt it’s more under-explored than Turkey.


It has two different kinds of geological terrains. One that is very old, that’s 700 to 1,000 million years old, and one that’s very young. Sheba has been focussing its exploration on the northern parts of Ethiopia and some of the oldest rocks there, with some early discoveries or indications of gold. We liked what they were doing. We’d read their press releases. We’d done a diligence on their projects, obviously with their approval. And we saw this as an excellent opportunity to establish a firm footprint in the country based on underlying assets, which we would then develop in conjunction with our new joint venture partners, while also looking elsewhere.


I think a key point to make here Harry is that some of the ground held by Sheba in the northern part of the country is just across the border from discoveries in Eritrea, which are of very major significance. Sunridge’s, base metal and gold discoveries and also of course Nevsun’s major Bisha copper-zinc-gold deposit as well. So all the indications are very positive.
 
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