Can China overcome it's demographic challenges ?

[Nikhil_cric]

China's birth rate hits record low as population continues to shrink

Beijing has been trying hard to encourage more young people to marry and have children.

www.bbc.com

China's population has declined for the 4th consecutive year , despite several efforts by Beijing to encourage family formation.

According to UN estimates, China's population will decline to 630 odd millon by 2100 - expected to be the steepest population decline in human history.

According to other internal studies like the one done by the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, an even steeper decline to 525 million by 2100 is predicted.

Will heavy investment in robotics and AI help the Chinese overcome their demographic challenges or will it be a case of "demography is destiny" and a death spiral that China cannot get out of?

 

[rpant_gabba]

China's birth rate hits record low as population continues to shrink

Beijing has been trying hard to encourage more young people to marry and have children.

www.bbc.com

China's population has declined for the 4th consecutive year , despite several efforts by Beijing to encourage family formation.

According to UN estimates, China's population will decline to 630 odd millon by 2100 - expected to be the steepest population decline in human history.

According to other internal studies like the one done by the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, an even steeper decline to 525 million by 2100 is predicted.

Will heavy investment in robotics and AI help the Chinese overcome their demographic challenges or will it be a case of "demography is destiny" and a death spiral that China cannot get out of?

Good. that way they don't have to "collaborate" with africa to feed their population

#Thanos #infinitywar

 

[DeadlyVenom]

From the article

But some Chinese people have told the BBC they are hindered by other factors - including the desire for a carefree life without constantly worrying about their children.

I wonder what has shifted in Chinese culture to have so many people feeling this way. Has the CCP turned people into commercially driven robots?

 

[Bhaijaan]

The Deathly Hallows of World domination

1. Civilizational Strength
2. Human Capital
3. Natural Resources
4. Economic Size


These, in my view, are the four decisive forces that determine not just the power of nations, but their endurance across centuries. Any nation which has a healthy situation with 3/4 factors mentioned above must be doing just fine. 2/2 is also good. 1/4 struggling. 0/4 you have no chance and you will just live at the mercy of greater forces. 4/4 is extremely rare and is actually capped by nature or destiny. Only a handful of nations in the world can potentially combine all 4 at once.

Human capital itself draws from civilizational strength.

Technology has allowed smaller nations to punch above their weight in recent world history but times are rapidly changing. Yeou have to understand that technology is a migratory bird. You maybe world leader today but others will eventually level up, learn from your mistakes and actually exceed you as a result through much better resource deployment.

Once parity arrives, power snaps back to those with deeper roots, larger populations, and cultural continuity.
Think of it as startups vs Mega industrial giants. They're just lurking in the shadows, watching you do your little experiments and celebrate your little wins and waiting for you to make just 1 mistake eventually so they can come like Pacman with their deep pockets.

Natural resources matter immensely. But their trade can be controlled and manipulated as have been for ages. Venezuela with the greatest resources were humiliated just a week ago. It doesn't matter if its not backed by the other factors mentioned above.

Human capital is different. Countries think it can be imported but they don't how civilizational strength works. The Western world will soon learn the mistakes they made in importing people from regions with far greater civilizational strength than Western. Besides, anyway a country like say Japan cannot just wake up one morning and decide to become a 300 million strong society. The only shortcut to such scale would have been territorial expansion, a path it once pursued, until two atomic flashes permanently sealed that chapter.

The United States dominated the modern era because it achieved a rare convergence: a young civilizational identity reinforced by extraordinary human capital, vast natural resources, and unmatched economic scale. That alignment allowed it to outlast Imperial Japan, outproduce Nazi Germany, and outmaneuver the Soviet Union.

But history never crowns a single power forever. The next contender assembling the Deathly Hallows is no mystery.

India stands apart as a living civilization rather than a constructed state. It carries demographic scale, civilizational memory, abundant resources, and an economic trajectory that points not merely toward relevance, but toward supremacy.


Not dominance by conquest.
Dominance by continuity.

The kind that does not announce itself loudly, yet reshapes the world all the same.

 

[Vikram1989]

I have few Chinese friends who don't want to have any kids.they think its economic and emotional burden. So most of them are deciding upfront before they start dating. Even Hongkong, Japanese, Koreans are on the same page.

 

[rpant_gabba]

From the article

But some Chinese people have told the BBC they are hindered by other factors - including the desire for a carefree life without constantly worrying about their children.

I wonder what has shifted in Chinese culture to have so many people feeling this way. Has the CCP turned people into commercially driven robots?

How dare you question the culture of the Pak masters! It is all in the master plan of Chairman Mao and his incarnate Xi

 

[rpant_gabba]

for those who don't actually read comprehend the links they post

>>>"If it becomes less competitive for kids to get the resources they need, I might feel more mentally ready and less stressed about having a child.<<<

 

[Varun]

China has been super successful. Driving down population will now enhance that success over the next decades - quality over quantity and all that.

I hope India too starts to decline soon, even though in our case we will inevitably grow old before we grow rich, or even middle class.

 

[finalfantasy7]

I have few Chinese friends who don't want to have any kids.they think its economic and emotional burden. So most of them are deciding upfront before they start dating. Even Hongkong, Japanese, Koreans are on the same page.

dont you think you indians should do the same, the chinese are not illegally immigrating to the whole world, its you indians who are.


evcery economist has stated india does not need more people - it needs de-population to increase its wealth - even to the poor

 

[Red-Indian]

With all mess in America, Xi seems to be getting away with his own brand of weirdness in China.

He's either become incredibly paranoid or just plain eccentric. I've been following his purges in government but even I had no idea how totally he's been hollowing out China's military leadership


Last week, Zhang Youxia who was easily the most powerful man in China's military was arrested on what look like very suspicious grounds - "leaking military secrets to the US" and of course the old chestnut "corruption." Hei Weidong who was the other abruptly disappeared last year.

This just leaves Xi and the relatively new Zhang Shengmin in charge from a 7 man committee just 2 years ago. I always thought Xi was powerhungry and authoritarian but of late it's tough to understand what's going on. So many of China's most important businessmen, bureaucrats and military officials are disappearing.

Do we have weirdos in charge of both of the world's most powerful countries now?

 

[rpant_gabba]

dont you think you indians should do the same, the chinese are not illegally immigrating to the whole world,

Not exactly well informed are you? Chinese lock themselves up in shipping containers to get to US

evcery economist has stated india does not need more people - it needs de-population to increase its wealth - even to the poor

Entirely agree with this.

 

[finalfantasy7]

Not exactly well informed are you? Chinese lock themselves up in shipping containers to get to US

Entirely agree with this.

rpant, re read my first statement, i didnt say one country did i?

and indian only immigrate via airplane, indians look at yourselves in the mirror

 

[rpant_gabba]

rpant, re read my first statement, i didnt say one country did i?

and indian only immigrate via airplane, indians look at yourselves in the mirror

sorry. bro. you are playing with a full deck. Lets move on.

 

[finalfantasy7]

sorry. bro. you are playing with a full deck. Lets move on.

im not your bro, and you've got no reply, hence you want to move on

you know i can list numerous of articles showing you how indians illegally immigrate to US = shipping containers is one of them.

 

[Champ_Pal]

Young Chinese do not want to have kids and the older generation will not have enough people to take care of them. They will be a country of weak and feeble.

At this point they have 2 options. Invite immigrants to their country from Africa and South Asia to work in healthcare industry or hope that their investment in AI and robotics will help take care of the elderly care.
The next decade will show which way China will go.

 

[Champ_Pal]

China can always import people from Pakistan to join the workforce in the dragon land. Pakistan has a lot of population looking for work. A win-win for both countries.