Champions Trophy - Group B semi-final qualification scenarios

[TalhaSyed]

Still a lot of games to play in the group stage, however, Pakistan's win yesterday has blasted the group wide open!

Let's look at what games remain in the group:

Ind vs SL (Today)
Ind vs SA (Sunday)
Pak vs SL (Monday)

The big question mark in all this is rain and matched being washed out. As things stand (according to Google)

Ind vs SL: Low chance of showers until 6pm - so we should get a game
Ind vs SA: Low chance of showers until noon and then no rain foretasted until 9pm - so we should get a result
Pak vs SL: Very low chance of rain all day - so again we should get a game

That is all good news, however, of course that is not set in stone

A Sri Lanka win today would mean the remaining two games would essentially be Quarter Final's

A India win today would make qualification for Sri Lanka very difficult and would ALMOST guarantee India's place in the Semi Finals

If India win their remaining two games, a win for Pakistan would put India & Pakistan in Semi Final. Meanwhile a win for Sri Lanka against Pakistan would bring Sri Lanka, South Africa & Pakistan to 2 points. Pakistan's NRR is better than Sri Lanka's NRR at the moment, so the 2nd team to qualify will essentially be determined by the margin of victories which India and Sri Lanka can achieve.

If India lose both their remaining games, South Africa will go through and the Pakistan vs Sri Lanka match will essentially be a straight shootout to see who is the 2nd team to make the SF

If India win today and lose to South Africa, Sri Lanka will be out, meanwhile Pakistan will have to beat Sri Lanka by a big margin to have a chance to qualify for the Semi Finals. In this scenario Pakistan, South Africa & India will end up on 4 points and qualification to the next round will be dictated by NRR.

As always - there are a lot of 'if's' and 'buts' when it comes to Pakistan's chances of qualification for the next round. For now Pakistan should just focus on trying to register a win against Sri Lanka, and if possible, try making it a big win!

One thing is for sure - Pakistan's victory against South Africa, has certainly blown this group wide open!

 

[ToeCrusher2]

A win today for India will not only guarantee a place in the semis but also a place at the top of the table, leaving just one spot open for 3 teams to fight for. I frankly don't see the saffers winning against India either, so pak vs sri lanka might decide the second semi finalist

 

[RehanG]

Pakistan humesha if's and buts ke saath hi qualify karta he..

 

[TalhaSyed]

Pakistan humesha if's and buts ke saath hi qualify karta he..

To be fair, two World Cups ago (in 2011) we got through without any if's and but's and we all know how that ended

In 1992 and 2009 we get through after plenty of if's and but's and we know how that ended

 

[TalhaSyed]

A win today for India will not only guarantee a place in the semis but also a place at the top of the table, leaving just one spot open for 3 teams to fight for. I frankly don't see the saffers winning against India either, so pak vs sri lanka might decide the second semi finalist

....unless South Africa trash India on Sunday and Pakistan trash Sri Lanka on Monday.

In which case India, South Africa and Pakistan will all end up on 4 points and it will come down to NRR.

Of course, since India has such a great NRR (which will only improve if they win today), this is extremely unlikely, however, theoretically, it is not impossible and there is no guarantees at this stage.

 

[ToeCrusher2]

....unless South Africa trash India on Sunday and Pakistan trash Sri Lanka on Monday.

In which case India, South Africa and Pakistan will all end up on 4 points and it will come down to NRR.

Of course, since India has such a great NRR (which will only improve if they win today), this is extremely unlikely, however, theoretically, it is not impossible and there is no guarantees at this stage.

South africa can't trash India, they can win against India, even in the unlikely scenario of a trashing against south africa, it won't be enough to push India down because India benefitted massively against pakistan and the nrr is only going to improve from here if we win against lanka, and no matter how badly pak trash lanka their nrr will still create problems for them, I haven't done the calculations but my guess is if it came down to NRR then required numbers for pak in the last game will be practically impossible to achieve, a win today pretty much confirms top spot for India

 

[TalhaSyed]

South africa can't trash India, they can win against India, even in the unlikely scenario of a trashing against south africa, it won't be enough to push India down because India benefitted massively against pakistan and the nrr is only going to improve from here if we win against lanka, and no matter how badly pak trash lanka their nrr will still create problems for them, I haven't done the calculations but my guess is if it came down to NRR then required numbers for pak in the last game will be practically impossible to achieve, a win today pretty much confirms top spot for India

Yea I agree with most of that. However, I have done some calculations so lets look at some imaginary scenarios.

At today's game - India manage to score a win which isn't by the biggest of margins. Let's imagine that its over cast, seaming conditions and both teams struggle with the bat. India bat first manage to get 220 on the board, however, they manage to restrict Sri Lanka to 190 with their seamers and win the match.

Come Sunday, India have a bad day at the office, whilst South Africa look to bounce back hard after yesterdays defeat. South Africa bat first and score 300, however, the Indian batsmen struggle and get bundled out for 180.

On Monday, Pakistan look to continue with their momentum and bat first. Pakistan scores 290 and the Pak bowlers then put on another impressive effort, dismissing the Sri Lankan's for 150.

The table will end up look like this:

SA 4 Points NRR 1.551
Pak 4 Points NRR 0.297
Ind 4 Points NRR 0.241
SL 0 Points NRR -1.840

Now I know the above scenario is very very unlikely, however it is by no means what so ever impossible. Of course the score's I've used their are just arbitrary numbers, however what I am trying to show is that the margins of victories/defeats we are talking about here are very unlikely, but not impossible.

 

[TalhaSyed]

Sri Lanka have done it and the equation is pretty straight forward now!

Two quarter finals coming up!

India vs South Africa on Sunday

Pakistan vs Sri Lanka on Monday

 

[FlickedOffHips]

This group just became WIDE OPEN. I can't name with any conviction two teams that will qualify for the Semis.

 

[Pete Rose]

all i know... is that paksitan will not want rain.

 

[Syed1]

Thanks to Lanka for making the next two games hella interesting. All four teams can qualify and any two teams can go home. Lovely prospect.

 

[Anwar_194]

All I know is India vs. SA will be a GEM OF A GAME!

 

[cricketerB94]

If weather don't interrupt in any match of group B going forward, only one of India or South Africa will go through.
Both teams were semi finalists according to some gurus before the start of champions trophy.

 

[Veteran]

Sri Lanka just made this tournament really interesting. Against all expectations!

 

[Pete Rose]

rain forecast on monday.

 

[super hitter]

Pakistan will need to bat first against Sri Lanka

 

[Hawkeye]

AWESOME AWESOME AWESOME scenario in Group B!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[marlonbrowndo]

Pakistan will need to bat first against Sri Lanka

No

 

[Asif321]

great chance for pakistan ...... just win and qualify hopefully they will

 

[shaz619]

rain forecast on monday.

A Green Storm.

 

[TeymurBlake]

This tournament just took a turn for the best I think. South Africa vs India and Pakistan vs Sri Lanka. Ohhhh mouthwatering stuff. Interesting couple of days coming up.

 

[JibranAnsari]

Quarter finals...brilliant.

I fancy our chances against sri lanka

 

[Inswing]

No ifs and buts for any team just win the game and book your place in SF

 

[GLORY OF '92]

rain forecast on monday.

Where do people get the forecast?

It's forecast to be a beautiful day.

 

[Arham_PakFan]

rain forecast on monday.

40% of chance of rain in the afternoon,that too passing showers of light rain.

 

[The intelligent Supporter]

Still a lot of games to play in the group stage, however, Pakistan's win yesterday has blasted the group wide open!

Let's look at what games remain in the group:

Ind vs SL (Today)
Ind vs SA (Sunday)
Pak vs SL (Monday)

The big question mark in all this is rain and matched being washed out. As things stand (according to Google)

Ind vs SL: Low chance of showers until 6pm - so we should get a game
Ind vs SA: Low chance of showers until noon and then no rain foretasted until 9pm - so we should get a result
Pak vs SL: Very low chance of rain all day - so again we should get a game

That is all good news, however, of course that is not set in stone

A Sri Lanka win today would mean the remaining two games would essentially be Quarter Final's

A India win today would make qualification for Sri Lanka very difficult and would ALMOST guarantee India's place in the Semi Finals

If India win their remaining two games, a win for Pakistan would put India & Pakistan in Semi Final. Meanwhile a win for Sri Lanka against Pakistan would bring Sri Lanka, South Africa & Pakistan to 2 points. Pakistan's NRR is better than Sri Lanka's NRR at the moment, so the 2nd team to qualify will essentially be determined by the margin of victories which India and Sri Lanka can achieve.

If India lose both their remaining games, South Africa will go through and the Pakistan vs Sri Lanka match will essentially be a straight shootout to see who is the 2nd team to make the SF

If India win today and lose to South Africa, Sri Lanka will be out, meanwhile Pakistan will have to beat Sri Lanka by a big margin to have a chance to qualify for the Semi Finals. In this scenario Pakistan, South Africa & India will end up on 4 points and qualification to the next round will be dictated by NRR.

As always - there are a lot of 'if's' and 'buts' when it comes to Pakistan's chances of qualification for the next round. For now Pakistan should just focus on trying to register a win against Sri Lanka, and if possible, try making it a big win!

One thing is for sure - Pakistan's victory against South Africa, has certainly blown this group wide open!

Great Through write up, cant expect any less from the Legend Talha Syed..complete with weather reports and all

Bring it on Lanka # Spirit Squad

 

[Smbhayi]

hope SL beat Pak.

 

[TalhaSyed]

Great Through write up, cant expect any less from the Legend Talha Syed..complete with weather reports and all

Bring it on Lanka # Spirit Squad

Thanks a lot for the kind words bro

The results from the last two days have been brilliant and have thrown the competition wide open! Now just hoping that Pakistan can In-Shaa-Allah capatilise and make the most of the position the have gotten/found themselves in

 

[StreetSmart]

hope SL beat Pak.

Hope SA beat India

 

[shaz619]

I like how [MENTION=3474]TalhaSyed[/MENTION] is not even contemplating an Indian qualification scenario

 

[bluevision]

Possible scenarios ----

Match A) Ind vs SA:
1.Winner goes thru
2.If no result-India goes thru on the basis of RR, SA can qualify only if Match B is rained out.

Match B) Pak vs SL:
1.Winner goes thru regardless of the Match A's outcome.
2. If no result- SA will qualify on the basis of RR provided match A is abandoned too; along with Ind.

So.....
#If both matches have outcomes, it's straight forward.Both winners will be in SFs
#If both matches are rained out Ind and SA will secure their spots in semis.
#If only Match A is rained out, it's India and Winner of match B

#If only Match B is rained out, it will be the winner of Match A and SL

Simple equation!Not! Or did I miss out on anything!?

 

[Square Drive]

[MENTION=3474]TalhaSyed[/MENTION] [MENTION=46929]shaz619[/MENTION] how's the official weather like for the India-SA and Pakistan-SL games?

Need two full games.

 

[TalhaSyed]

[MENTION=3474]TalhaSyed[/MENTION] [MENTION=46929]shaz619[/MENTION] how's the official weather like for the India-SA and Pakistan-SL games?

Need two full games.

When I checked earlier today - their was great weather expected all day on Sunday in London for SA vs India. Meanwhile from 12 noon onwards, the weather forecast is also looking very good in Cardiff inshallah on Monday for our game

 

[Square Drive]

When I checked earlier today - their was great weather expected all day on Sunday in London for SA vs India. Meanwhile from 12 noon onwards, the weather forecast is also looking very good in Cardiff inshallah on Monday for our game

Hmm.

So if we win the toss vs SL, should we not look to chase then purely due to tactical reasons (i.e keeping DL in mind)? We shouldn't consider weather at the toss?

 

[shaz619]

[MENTION=3474]TalhaSyed[/MENTION] [MENTION=46929]shaz619[/MENTION] how's the official weather like for the India-SA and Pakistan-SL games?

Need two full games.

As it stands the weather is fine for both games, no rain forecast

 

[Square Drive]

As it stands the weather is fine for both games, no rain forecast

Excellent!

RIP India.

 

[Langau]

When I checked earlier today - their was great weather expected all day on Sunday in London for SA vs India. Meanwhile from 12 noon onwards, the weather forecast is also looking very good in Cardiff inshallah on Monday for our game

Forcast will change after a day or 2.
it Should be checked on saturday. That will be more accurate.

 

[super hitter]

No

I fear a collapse in a complete match, if it's a rainy day, then field first.

 

[fawad_wellwisher]

I fear a collapse in a complete match, if it's a rainy day, then field first.

The only way Pakistan can win is if they get Sri Lanka out cheaply. A lot will depend on the pitch the game is being played on and if suits Pakistan bowling.

It will be hard for our batsmen to score 300+ and even if we did the Lankans will get to the target easily if there is nothing in it for the bowlers.

 

[kingusama92]

That IND vs SA game is going to be nuts.

Just hope rain doesn't play a part in this tournament. Each game deserves to be played.

 

[AZulfi]

Pakistan's destiny is their our own hands. As long as Pakistan beat Sri Lanka (effectively a QF), they will be through to the semis regardless of the India vs RSA result.

However if there is a washout on Monday then Lanka will proceed

 

[Smbhayi]

Hope SA beat India

actually that's why I want SL beat Pakistan .

it'd be an embarrassing moment if Pakistan qualify and India didn't

 

[todfod 11]

Pakistan will need to bat first against Sri Lanka

Nah bhai bat second and get them out cheaply. Most of sri lankan batsmen are hit n miss.

 

[todfod 11]

That IND vs SA game is going to be nuts.

Just hope rain doesn't play a part in this tournament. Each game deserves to be played.

Safs will choke once again

 

[Hawkeye]

actually that's why I want SL beat Pakistan .

it'd be an embarrassing moment if Pakistan qualify and India didn't

Smbhayi sir you can't avoid the inevitable.

It's happening!!

 

[Yossarian]

If both matches washouts, India and SA go through
If India / SA match is a washout, India go through, SA go out, and winners of SL/Pak go through
If both matches have results, then winners of each match go through.
India go out if they lose to SA regardless of SL/Pak result

Pakistan have to win to go through. Washout means eliminated;

 

[Yossarian]

Best hope for Pakistan is a India/SA washout.

Because then SL cant rely on a washout. Just like Pakistan, they too have to go for a win.

Maybe both teams will ask the umpires that they be allowed to play even if its pouring down with rain.

 

[letme alone]

rain rain go away let for pak one way

 

[Yossarian]

Bangladesh 3 points, NRR = 0.00. If Eng/Aus washout, Aus 3 points, NRR = 0.00

Who goes through?

 

[Abdullah719]

Who goes through?

Bangladesh, because they would have more wins than Australia.

Unless I'm mistaken, wins take precedence over NRR anyway.

Points>Wins>NRR

 

[ToeCrusher2]

Bangladesh, because they would have more wins than Australia.

Unless I'm mistaken, wins take precedence over NRR anyway.

Points>Wins>NRR

Yup Bangladesh will go through, wins > NRR