My gut feeling is that Abhinandan missed the target and he hit the trees, there might have been a few human casualties which could have been normal civilians along with the trees, not the folks Indians intended to hit.
Your gut feeling is wrong....
on Feb 26th IndianAF Mirage 2000s lobbed spice bombs from a standoff range (it has more than 60 km range) and missed spectacularly. An aerial delivered bomb that can leave a building intact and kill people inside only exists in South Indian pseudo scifi movies where the hero kills 20 people with a banana

Please read this detailed analysis by Australian researchers published shortly after the attack. They used independent satellite imagery to confirm so there is no excuse that Pak Army did not allow anyone to go to the site.
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/indias-strike-on-balakot-a-very-precise-miss/
On the morning of Feb 27th PAF retaliated in broad daylight. 4x Mirages & 2x JF17s went inside Occupied Kashmir and bombed (next to) 1 Brigade HQ, 1 munitions depot and 4x other Military targets with H4 and REKs respectively. The targets were intentionally selected nearby just to show PAF's resolve and capabilities but not to cause mass carnage since we had already ascertained that the IAF strikes had been a failure. Had IAF actually caused casualties, the result of PAF retaliation would have been totally different.
Now the strike package was challenged by 2 x Mirage 2000, 2 x Su30, 5x Mig21 Bisons. On the other side we had 6 x F16s and 6x JF17 on fighter sweep duties (Over watch) inside Pak airspace backed by EW & AEW platforms. The EW aircraft completely jammed IAF comms. F16s engaged the Su30s first and shot it down with a long range AMRAAM shot. Afterwards both Mirages were heard saying that they are disengaging due to radar malfunction!. The SU30's wingman also made a figure 8 and bugged out. Out of the 5 Mig21s , nando stumbled blindly (comms and radar completely jammed) inside the fighter sweep range and was shot down. His plane's wreckage had all 4 missiles either on the rails or in the wreckage confirming he never even got a chance to fire his R73 at the F16s as claimed by the Indian Airforce.
Only thing India shot down was a certain Mi17 hurriedly sent for Search and Rescue operation.
People keep talking about the aerial engagement, nobody talks about the strike package going in unchallenged in one of the most contentious and hot zones and executing a text book stand off strike...

Below is a very well balanced write up of what actually happened. Please also read the FAQs

http://kaiser-aeronaut.blogspot.com/2019/06/