ahmedwaqas92
ODI Debutant
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With Friday Night’s game done and dusted and Pakistan winning the latter comfortably in the end (Alhamdulliah), I started browsing Pakpassion and a couple of other social media platforms to read up on informed fans & what opinion they held of the entire Pakistani innings and the reason why this much needed turnaround was necessary after the disastrous 0-2 in the test series earlier.
As far as I am concerned, I believe that even though we had won comfortably we were still, 15 to 20 runs, short of what would’ve been an optimum 1st Innings batting performance and this naturally led me to go into full criticism mode at the innings that Babar played yesterday evening. I was so disappointed by his lack of creativity (or so I thought it was) that I casually dropped a line stating ‘This is probably the most useless ODI century I’ve seen in recent times’ while interacting with a few of my friends.
Alas most of them reacted the way a normal fan would and came to Babar’s defense stating that his contribution was the backbone through which we were able to post a more than enough competitive total. As I am that guy who doesn’t necessarily headbutts others on such matters and when we eventually won the game, I thought to my self that maybe we should quantify exactly why does it feel that Babar slows down whenever he’s reaching a milestone and whether there is any apparent evidence to this claim or is this just fan rhetoric based on nothing but the ‘Boom Boom’ culture.
For these very reasons I formulated an arbitrary criteria, to the best of my knowledge, which could give us proper insight on whether the narrative that Babar slows down whenever hes reaching a milestone holds true or not. Please note that due to time constraints I have isolated the milestones as Centuries only! I will not be addressing half century related progressions as I fundamentally believe that half centuries don’t necessarily hold as much relevance in the milestone category as a century does (unless and until the batsmen is going through a massive rut in form). With that said here is the criteria I have established:
1Innings in which centuries have been scored (Total = 6)
2The need to look at how Babar plays whenever he might reach an innings total of 85 runs (> or equal to 85) in those centuries.
3[/B}1st numerical metric ~ Innings Moving SR (Strike Rate) or IMSR
42nd numerical metric ~ Block Moving SR (Strike Rate) or BMSR
What is Block Moving SR (Strike Rate) - BMSR?
In my progression I have defined Block Moving SR as a means of isolating Babar’s runs from 85 to 100 and how many balls these fifteen runs took and the SR that incurs on every delivery that is consumed during these fifteen runs.
Why have I introduced BMSR?
BMSR actually gives us the SR of Babar during the last 15 percent of the runs required to complete his century. This progression actually will tell us exactly on whether Babar is playing to the situation, slowing down? Consolidating due to wickets falling at the other end or It is just that’s the way he plays?
BMSR would essentially give context to those last 15 runs and whether Babar was selfish in the approach that he employed or whether he was smart enough to play the way he did and hold the innings together.
What is IMSR ? Brief Definition for All those wondering if it’s any different to normal SR?[/B}
In a nutshell, IMSR (Innings Moving Strike Rate) is the instantaneous SR of a batsman that would incur on a specific point in the game. The ‘Moving’ nature of the SR will particularly show whether a batsmen is accelerating or getting bogged down due opposition pressure or not.
Any type of game analysis especially that which requires us to understand and make sense of numericals require a baseline for thorough understanding of the said metrics. With that in mind let’s establish a few facets of these six innings played by Babar:
(a) Two out of the six centuries Babar has scored are in away games, while the remaining four are in the UAE (a neutral venue).
(b) In those six innings Babar has five centuries in winnings causes while one of them is in a loosing cause.
(c) Five of these six innings have come while batting first (all wins), one innings was recorded while batting second (this is the only innings in which Pakistan lost)
(d)[/B} All Innings came while batting at #3
Century #1, 1st ODI vs WI Sept 30th 2016 (UAE)
Babar’s first century came at a strike rate of 84.03 but since the purpose of the thread is to know whether he slowed down during those last fifteen runs or not, we have to therefore isolate the largest deviation from the starting point I.e. 88 off 104. Babar actually was on 84 in 103 deliveries and then he struck a boundary so his total crossed the >85 filter that we’re looking at right now, and hence we have a starting point of 88 (104).
At 88 (104) his IMSR is 84.62 while since ‘slowing down’ will have a dip in the trend I am purposefully ignoring (for the time being) all values that might be higher than this figure. Using this criteria, the largest dip in IMSR is 83.33 which is a reduction of no more than 1.52% from the innings SR that he was maintaining while he entered the last fifteen run threshold.
During this period he also has moments where he has an IMSR higher than what he was maintaining at the <85 mark however, the reduction and inclination is next to negligible which signifies that Babar was not doing or playing in any way different than how he was playing before the <85 filter that we are using. He kept on rotating the strike and accumulating more or less the same way that he was doing all throughout the innings.
Was the last fifteen run approach correct?
This is the part where BMSR comes into play and for BMSR to make sense, we might need to look at a few match details in this period. Babar’s BMSR is 80.00 (aggregate value) for the entire block of 12 runs that he scored. This block came in at the start of the 35th over and ended by the 38th.
During this time period Pakistan lost two wickets and were five down by the time Babar completed that century. The run rate for the innings hovered between 5.33 (88.83 SR - Minimum Value) to 5.48 (91.33 SR - Maximum Value) which means that the last 12 runs that Babar scored were indeed slower than mean runs scored, at that time, for the Pakistani Innings.
Now this deceleration could be due to two wickets falling in between the designated overs and the fact that there were almost 72 deliveries remaining in the innings while with Pakistan’s ability to collapse and not play out their full quota I would essentially give Babar the benefit of the doubt and a props to his judgment on making that call. Pakistan’s final total was 284/9 at the end of 50 overs.
Century #2, 2nd ODI vs WI Oct 2nd 2016 (UAE)
(i) The second century, also against the West Indies came in the subsequent match of the same series in 2016
(ii) Starting position for Babar’s IMSR is 90.43 I.e. 85(94)
(iii) Largest dip in IMSR trend is 87.88 relative to the above starting point. This constitutes to a maximum reduction of only 2.81% on the IMSR in the 15 run >85 block of runs that we have arbitrarily selected up until Babar crosses that 100 run mark.
(iv) Upon his century completion Babar gives it the full Monty and ends up with an innings SR of 97.62 as shown by the orange spike.
The last fifteen run approach!
(a)Aggregate BMSR for the block of 15 runs was 88.23
(b)The block commenced at over 36.1 and finished at the 41.1 mark
(c)During these fifteen runs scored by Babar, Pakistan did not loose any wickets
(d)The run rate for the innings, in the above block of fifteen runs hovered between 6.00 (100.00 SR - Minimum Value) to 6.13 (102.16 SR - Maximum Value), signifying that Babar was indeed striking almost 10-12 points lower than the average SR of the entire Pakistani innings. It is a strange slowing down of sorts because in this
(e)Pakistan concluded their innings tally with 337/5 in 50 overs.
Century #3, 3rd ODI vs WI Oct 5th 2016 (UAE)
(i) The starting point of Babar’s IMSR is 104.94 at 85(81)
(ii) These last fifteen runs came from overs 38.1 to 43.2
(iii) The largest dip in the IMSR during these last fifteen runs came at 104.49 which when quantified to a percentile approximately rounds off to 0.42% (negligible change in the scheme of things)
(iv) Again at the end of Babar’s innings we can effectively see a massive spike showing his acceleration during the latter end of the innings. He ends up with an innings SR of 110.38
The last fifteen run approach!
(a) The block of these fifteen runs in question have a RR hovering between 5.95 (99.16 SR - Minimum Value) to 6.13 (102.16 SR - Maximum Value)
(b) For this block of runs Babar’s SR (Aggregate BMSR) is 114.28 ~ approximately 12 runs ahead (per hundred balls) of the innings SR for all other batsmen which essentially means that instead of slowing down Babar actually increased his pace for the block of 15 runs at the end to complete his century.
(c) In the same said period Pakistan lost a well set Azhar ali (after scoring a century) and Malik as well, so in total we lost 2 wickets in the same period that Babar was upping the ante at the other end.
Century #4, 5th ODI vs Aus Jan 26th 2017 (Aus)
(i) The only game where Babar has scored a century while chasing a target, (Result=Loss)
(ii) Starting position 85(98) I.e. striking at 86.73
(iii) The largest dip in the IMSR, relative to the starting position, was when it dropped to 84.31which is a reduction of only 2.79% compared to the IMSR at the starting position
(iv) This game was played when Pakistan were 1-3 down in the five match series already. The result of this match had no bearing on any aspect (long or short term) on the PCT at that particular in time which I can partake to the fact that such a scenario should more or less ease off any nerves whatsoever.
(v) Babar’s final score at the end was 100(109) with a SR of 91.74, the dismissal occurred two balls after he completed his 4th ton.
The last fifteen run approach!
(a) The required RR at the starting position of the block was 10.68 and hovered between the said figure and up to 12 runs per over (approximately)
(b) Babar entered the >85 run block from overs 34.1 up until 36.1
(c) In the said above period Babar’s aggregate strike rate for BMSR was 166.67 which if constituted into RPO gives us 10+ runs every six balls in the above mentioned block. It also helps us understand that even though this was a dead rubber Babar was essentially not slowing down and was actually gunning for the target irrespective of whether he was nearing a milestone or not.
(d) The Innings RR in that same period was in between 5.85 to 6.13, well below the BMSR of 166.67 that Babar was achieving at the same time while Pakistan did not loose any wickets in the same period.
(e) Pakistan were bowled out for 312 in 49.1 overs and lost the game.
Century #5, 2nd ODI vs WI Apr 9th 2017 (Providence)
(i) IMSR starting position is 85(111) I.e. 76.57
(ii) No dip in IMSR throughout the block
(iii) Babar as we have seen in the other previous trends as well, tees off at the death and jumps his overall aggregate SR by almost 20 more runs per 100 balls.
(iv) The >85 block of runs started at overs 43.2 and went until 47.1
The last fifteen run approach!
(a) Babar’s aggregate BMSR is 125.00 at the end of the >85 run block.
(b) The run rate during the >85 block of runs again hovers between 4.81(80.16 SR - Minimum Value) and 5.02 (83.67 SR - Maximum Value). This implies that Babar’s 125.00 aggregate BMSR is way above the instantaneous RR which the innings was going at. Rather than slowing down Babar is essentially gunning towards that 3 figure score.
(c) No wickets were lost during the course of the >85 Block and Pakistan at the end of the innings and we ended the innings at 282/5.
Century #6, 1st ODI vs SL Oct 13th 2017 (UAE)
(i) Babar’s starting position for the >85 run Block is 85(114).
(ii) At this point in time the IMSR for his innings is displaced at 74.56. For the next 15 runs Babar’s IMSR does not drop below this figure which implies that while nearing the 100 run milestone Babar is actually improving the runs per balls ratio that he was incurring before the >85 run block came into effect.
(iii) The Block starts from 41.3 overs and goes up until 47.4 (The largest number of balls that got incurred for any of the 6 centuries he has scored previously). This facet somewhat signifies that during the course of these last 15 runs, unlike other previous five occasions, Babar was not exposed to the strike and therefore these 15 runs came in between a longer stretch than it did on all previous games.
The last fifteen run approach!
(a) During the >85 run block Pakistan lost two wickets (an inform Malik who was scoring at a hefty SR) and the captain Sarfraz.
(b) During these last 15 runs Babar’s BMSR of 107.14 which (apart from being almost 25 runs higher than his IMSR) also was in line to the teams RR as well.
(c) Our innings RR at the same time hovered between 5.07 (84.5 SR - Minimum Value) to 5.60 (93.33 SR - Maximum Value) which clearly suggests that Babar’s 107.14 during the >85 run block was actually an inclination of pace rather than the generic ‘slowing down’ that he was accused off.
(d) Pakistan finished with a tally of 292/6 in their allotted 50 overs. The only thing was in the anomaly was that Babar couldn’t tee off like he did on four previous occasions and got dismissed 3 balls later after completing his ton - Quite similar to the Adelaide Innings back in January 2017.
Concluding Assessment
Before I write any conclusive analogy let me first state that whatever I write here is not some Almighty approving consent on the matter. People can derive their own set of narratives from the data sets that are publicly available here and or online. However, from what I can see from the above progressions, is that the claim that Babar plays to his century or ‘slows down’ as per say is nothing but an uninformed opinion based on subjective hogwash.
It is clear from the above statistics that numerically Babar has only ‘slowed down’ during the >85 block of runs twice (that’s it!!) and these two games were his first two centuries. On all other occasions Babar has actually increased his pace gunning towards a score of a 100 and on four such instances he’s actually demonstrated a very appropriate power hitting ability as well.
The two innings that he actually decreased the BMSR can further be broken down by the fact that during his first century Pakistan lost 2 wickets in that block of >85 runs up until he hit that century. Based on Pakistan’s collapsing culture, Babar playing at #3 for the first time and our generic inability to bat out the complete quota of 50 overs it was a smart choice from Babar to reduce risk inducing batting and consolidate for a bit - It is a most impressive feat that a young 22 year old lad saw the vulnerability of the situation and took charge to make sure we did not collapse.
Which makes the only time that he [/U]EVER[/U] ‘slowed down’ was during the 2nd century he scored against the WI at UAE in 2016. There could be multitude of reasons why he would’ve slowed down as per say but given the lad was new to the role and has not incurred this slowing down phenomenon yet, it would be mighty unfair to hold him for this one off. Eventually due to that century Pakistan did come out victorious in the end and it did not effect anything at all.
With all that said my final thoughts on the matter are that even though it might seem that Babar ‘slows down’ during the last stretch of his century making, numerically and based on valid metrics more often than not he actually increases the pace of the innings and induces a much higher SR than what his IMSR would’ve been before the >85 run block. The analogy also does open the discussion that is Babar, rather than slowing down at the end, is actually taking a bit of more time going out of the block ?? Well I guess that’s a debate for another thread.
Let me know what you guys think and Thank You for reading thus far!!
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) however personally speaking I absolutely love assembling these myself. I just wish I had more spare time to do a complete player by player analysis on many of the things that I believe are relavent to the course of Pakistan and world cricket.
!! Most (if not all) are normally here because of the love of the game.
