‘Watershed’: How Saudi-Pakistan defence pact reshapes region’s geopolitics
A beaming Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif – welcomed with Saudi F-15 fighter jets, a red carpet, and full royal protocol – joined Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Wednesday to sign a “strategic mutual defence agreement” (SMDA).
Observers say it is a landmark moment in the decades-old alliance between the two nations whose ties stretch back nearly eight decades.
The signing ceremony at the Royal Court in Al-Yamamah Palace in Riyadh was witnessed by senior officials from Saudi Arabia, the custodian of two of Islam’s holiest sites, alongside representatives from Pakistan, the Muslim world’s only nuclear power.
The deal comes at a critical moment. Regional politics have been upended by two years of Israeli aggression – including its war on Gaza and strikes on neighbouring states – capped by last week’s Israeli attack on Doha, Qatar’s capital, which borders Saudi Arabia.
But it also comes amid heightened tensions between India and Pakistan, after a short but intense conflict in May in which they struck each other’s military bases over four days, taking South Asia to the brink of a full-fledged war between nuclear-armed neighbours.
Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the agreement with Saudi Arabia reflects the “shared commitment” of both nations to strengthen security and promote regional peace, while also pledging to “strengthen joint deterrence against any aggression”.
“The agreement states that any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both,” the ministry said.
Asfandyar Mir, a senior fellow at the Washington DC-based Stimson Center, described the pact as a “watershed” for both countries.
“Pakistan previously maintained mutual defence treaties with the United States during the Cold War, but they crumbled by the ’70s. Even with China, despite extensive defence cooperation, Pakistan lacks a formal mutual defence pact,” Mir told Al Jazeera.
Muhammad Faisal, a South Asia security researcher at the University of Technology Sydney, said the deal could serve as a template for Pakistan to engage in similar bilateral defence cooperation with the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, two key Gulf partners.
“In the immediate term, this agreement will consolidate and formalise multi-prong defence cooperation already under way, and new avenues to expand it via joint trainings, defence production and potential expansion of Pakistani troops contingent in Saudi Arabia will be explored,” Faisal said.
Historic bonds and military cooperation
Saudi Arabia was one of the first countries to recognise Pakistan after its independence in August 1947. In 1951, the two nations signed a “Treaty of Friendship,” laying the foundation for decades of strategic, political, military, and economic cooperation.
Over the years, Pakistani armed forces have deployed to the kingdom several times and trained Saudi personnel both in the Gulf and in Pakistan.
According to official records, Pakistan has trained more than 8,000 Saudis since 1967. An agreement signed in 1982 further cemented this cooperation by ensuring the “deputation of Pakistan Armed Forces personnel and military training” in Saudi Arabia.
But the latest pact arrives as the Middle East’s geopolitical chessboard is in flux. The fallout from Israel’s war on Gaza and its strikes on regional neighbours has made Gulf states uneasy, many of which still rely heavily on United States security guarantees, even as Washington remains Israel’s closest ally.
Qatar, attacked by Israel on September 9 for hosting Hamas leaders, serves as the forward headquarters for US Central Command (Centcom).
As of mid-2025, some 40,000–50,000 US troops are stationed across the Middle East, deployed in large bases and smaller forward sites – at least 19 of them – including Prince Sultan Air Base outside Riyadh.
While Saudi officials say the deal with Pakistan has been in the works for at least a year, Sahar Khan, an independent security analyst in Washington, DC, said its language will raise eyebrows in the US.
During its tenure from 2021 to 2025, President Joe Biden’s administration imposed sanctions on seven occasions targeting Pakistani individuals and firms over alleged ballistic missile development. Biden administration officials also publicly raised concerns over the range of missiles Pakistan was building, and whether they could carry nuclear weapons as far as the US.
“Pakistan already has a credibility problem in Washington, and this agreement won’t reduce it,” Khan told Al Jazeera.
Khan said that it is in Pakistan’s interest to clarify that its nuclear and missiles programme is India-centric, and while its bilateral relations with Saudi Arabia remain strong, “it will not fight Saudi wars but instead, will only provide relevant support”.
A region on edge
Earlier this year, in June, Israel waged a 12-day war with Iran, targeting nuclear facilities as well as senior civilian and military leaders. American bomber jets supported the assault, dropping massive bunker-buster bombs on Fordow, one of Iran’s key nuclear sites.
Three months later, Israel struck a building in a leafy Doha neighbourhood that is home to embassies, supermarkets and schools, killing at least five Hamas members and one Qatari security official.
The Doha attack triggered an emergency meeting of Arab and Islamic nations. Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states – Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE – said they would activate a joint defence mechanism.
Faisal said the Pakistan-Saudi pact should be viewed through the lens of these developments.
“These events have exacerbated security anxieties of the Gulf states while jeopardising confidence in the US security umbrella as the ultimate shield. As Gulf states look to bolster their security, regional countries such as Pakistan, Egypt and Turkiye emerge as natural partners,” he said.
Khan, however, said that while the timing of the pact does suggest a link with Israel’s recent attack on Qatar, “such kinds of agreements take months, if not years, to negotiate”.
Yet, the Stimson Center’s Mir pointed out that the agreement would also test how both Pakistan and Saudi Arabia manage their exposure to the other’s tensions with countries with which they have otherwise cautiously managed relations, or are even friends with.
“Pakistan now risks entanglement in Saudi Arabia’s regional rivalries, particularly with its neighbour Iran,” he said. “Saudi Arabia has committed itself to Pakistan’s disputes, notably with India, and potentially with the Taliban-led Afghanistan.”
The Indian question
The defence deal will also be watched closely in India, Pakistan’s nuclear-armed archrival.
Relations between India and Pakistan, already at a historic low, plummeted further in April after the Pahalgam attack, in which gunmen killed 26 civilians in Indian-administered Kashmir, for which India blamed Pakistan, which the latter rejected.
Days later, in May, the two countries fought a four-day skirmish, targeting each other’s military bases with missiles and drones in their most serious escalation in nearly three decades before a ceasefire on May 10 that US President Donald Trump claims he brokered.
On Thursday, during a weekly news briefing, Indian foreign ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said that the Indian government was aware of the signing of the pact.
“We will study the implications of this development for our national security as well as for regional and global stability. The government remains committed to protecting India’s national interests and ensuring comprehensive national security in all domains,” Jaiswal said.
But this agreement, says Sydney-based Faisal, could rebalance the Pakistan-Saudi relationship, which in recent years has been defined by Saudi financial bailouts for a struggling Pakistani economy, even as Riyadh cultivated closer ties with India.
“Pakistan’s relative position has improved,” he said, “and new space has opened for expanding the Pak-Saudi cooperation on both bilateral defence and regional security matters.”
With Pakistan’s economy faltering and increasingly dependent on Saudi aid during the last decade, India had been steadily deepening its own relationship with Riyadh. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi made his third visit to Saudi Arabia in a decade this April.
Mir said the new pact shows that Saudi Arabia still sees value in its relationship with Pakistan, and that Islamabad is not isolated in its extended neighbourhood – despite Indian attempts to get countries to distance themselves from Pakistan.
“At precisely the moment when Pakistan is faced with the threat of Indian military action,” he said, “Pakistan has secured a strong collective defence agreement from Saudi Arabia. So, it introduces a lot of complexity to future India-Pakistan dynamics.”
Pakistan’s nuclear shield over Saudi Arabia?
Saudi Arabia has long expressed interest in acquiring nuclear technology for civilian use, to diversify from fossil fuels.
In January, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud reiterated Riyadh’s readiness to enrich and sell uranium, a key component of nuclear programmes.
But Saudi Arabia has also repeatedly made clear that it does not seek to pursue nuclear weapons.
In his 2024 book War, American journalist Bob Woodward recounted a conversation in which Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed reportedly told US Senator Lindsey Graham that Riyadh planned to enrich uranium only for energy purposes.
When Graham expressed concern about the prospect of a Saudi bomb, Woodward wrote, Salman replied:
“I don’t need uranium to make a bomb. I will just buy one from Pakistan.”
Still, Khan, the analyst, said some things were unclear about the ambit of the agreement signed between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.
“It is important to note that while Pakistan has made defence pacts before, none of those have led to nuclear assurances or a formation of a ‘nuclear umbrella’. There is nothing in this agreement that indicates a formation of a nuclear umbrella or any extended deterrence,” she said.
Mir warned that even robust alliances carry risks.
“The pact will trigger a new alliance politics around what it does or does not cover, deterrence, resource commitment, operational details, among others,” he said. However, he added, that does not diminish the political significance of this pact being struck.
“It’s a huge development for both countries.”
Faisal, too, agreed, pointing out that while the deal refers to treating an aggression against one country against both, that is perhaps more of a political statement, rather than an alliance or joint defence commitment, for now.
“Nonetheless, the political and defence coordination between the two sides will deepen, while strengthening respective military capabilities of both countries,” he said.
Deal reflects the Gulf’s anxieties as US credibility wanes after Israel’s attack on Doha. But it affects India, too.
www.aljazeera.com
my tone will reflect the same. Hope it continues.
