Even a jailed Imran Khan is favored over Nawaz and Bilawal to run Pakistan's economy!

[FearlessRoar]

Jailed Imran Khan Favored in Survey to Run Pakistan’s Economy

Jailed ex-Prime Minister Imran Khan is the top pick for Pakistani finance professionals to oversee the cash-strapped economy’s recovery, according to a Bloomberg survey.

Khan, effectively barred from contesting the Feb. 8 election, was ranked highest among 12 traders, economists and analysts from some of the nation’s biggest brokerages. Respondents cited the former cricket star’s enduring popularity as a key reason, saying he’d be able to push through market-focused reforms in the long run.

Three-time former premier Nawaz Sharif came second, with respondents mentioning his experience in government and the widespread belief that he’s backed by the country’s powerful military. Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, a scion of the influential Bhutto clan, was a distant third, with some of those surveyed citing a distrust of dynastic politics.

Khan’s popularity is the elephant in the room as almost 129 million eligible voters prepare to cast their ballots in federal and provincial elections next week. Pakistan has seen its National Assembly complete a five-year term just three times in its 76-year history, and political observers say there’s growing unhappiness with the electoral system with Khan out of the race.

On Tuesday, Khan was handed another jail sentence for his role in publicizing a classified diplomatic cable.

At the same time, Sharif and his Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz have been gaining support from voters since he ended four years of self-imposed exile in London. His return was widely seen as a deal with the generals. A Gallup poll carried out in November showed Sharif holds the highest approval ratings in his base in Punjab, Pakistan’s most populous province.

An analysis by Bloomberg Economics of Pakistan’s misery index — a combination of inflation and unemployment rates — showed Sharif’s party performed better in managing the economy over the past three decades compared with rivals, including Khan.

The elections are intended to bring an end to the political volatility weighing on Pakistan since Khan’s ouster in April 2022, leading to his very public confrontation with the army that has loomed large over foreign policy and the economy. Whoever wins the polls will oversee an economy that’s grappling with low reserves and stubbornly high inflation. The country is likely to require another loan from the International Monetary Fund to stay afloat.

All 12 survey respondents said they didn’t expect Pakistan to survive without a new IMF loan. Half of them said Pakistan can survive without a bailout for six months, in a sign the economy remains fragile. A nine-month IMF program is set to end in March, and Pakistan has about $1 billion in dollar-denominated debt due in April.

Here are other findings from the survey carried out in January:

Poll contributers expect Pakistan’s economy to log 2.65% growth in the fiscal year starting July. The government estimates the economy will expand 2%-2.5% in the current fiscal year after contracting about 0.3% last fiscal year

Inflation is likely to moderate to 25.05% in fiscal year ending June. It now stands at about 30%

Four respondents said Pakistan can survive without an IMF loan for three months while two said nine months. None said the country can survive for more than a year without a bailout.

Source: Bloomberg

Jailed Imran Khan Favored in Survey to Run Pakistan’s Economy

(Bloomberg) -- Jailed ex-Prime Minister Imran Khan is the top pick for Pakistani finance professionals to oversee the cash-strapped economy’s recovery, according to a Bloomberg survey.Most Read from BloombergMusk’s $55 Billion Pay Package Voided, Threatening World’s Biggest FortuneTrump Risks...

news.yahoo.com

 

[Rana]

This is populism

Jailed Khan will be number 1 in the polls to become the next PM of Pakistan

We’ve accepted how this works

 

[MenInG]

This is populism

Jailed Khan will be number 1 in the polls to become the next PM of Pakistan

We’ve accepted how this works

And that should worry all who are worried about Pakistan

When a company like Bloomberg says this -it should send alarm bells ringing.

 

[Hextro]

PTI being the best party for Pakistan's economy has been a known fact for quite a while. I wonder how PDM supporters can argue against it.

Name an economic parameter and I'll tell you how PDM(PMLN and PPP) performed worse at it.

Writing about every mess up by the PDM parties throughout Pakistan's history would take too long. Someone can easily write a 1000+ page book on the subject of their incompetence.

 

[FearlessRoar]

PTI being the best party for Pakistan's economy has been a known fact for quite a while. I wonder how PDM supporters can argue against it.

Name an economic parameter and I'll tell you how PDM(PMLN and PPP) performed worse at it.

Writing about every mess up by the PDM parties throughout Pakistan's history would take too long. Someone can easily write a 1000+ page book on the subject of their incompetence.

I recommend you to read this

Pakistan: Imran Khan and the politics of inflation

Will the prime minister survive a vote of no confidence over his management of the economy at a time when Pakistanis face crippling price rises?

www.ft.com

 

[hoshiarpurexpress]

Bloomberg is rubbing salt on the wounds of Pakistanis. Everyone in the world knows that Imran is done for.

 

[MenInG]

Bloomberg is rubbing salt on the wounds of Pakistanis. Everyone in the world knows that Imran is done for.

Bloomberg is telling Pakistanis what a huge mistake they have made.

Nothing wrong with it.

 

[The Bald Eagle]

Bloomberg is rubbing salt on the wounds of Pakistanis. Everyone in the world knows that Imran is done for.

Bloomberg is telling Pakistanis what a huge mistake they have made.

Nothing wrong with it.

They are just stating the fact. Pakistan's economy is going to suffer a big time after handicapping IK in bogus cases.

 

[Hextro]

Thanks for the reply.

I recommend you to read this

Pakistan: Imran Khan and the politics of inflation

Will the prime minister survive a vote of no confidence over his management of the economy at a time when Pakistanis face crippling price rises?

www.ft.com

I'm not going to register my details to read the article. It would've been preferable that you post all the contents of the article here.

Finally, written data sets are better for online forums than visualizations because they don't take up two screens worth of space.

That's not a valid argument. Public opinion is an important parameter but it doesn't reflect the causes of the problems displayed. Not to mention that inflation has been a common theme in Gallup surveys since they started conducting them.

Example:

According to a Gilani Research Foundation Survey carried out by Gallup & Gilani Pakistan, 2 in 3 Pakistanis (67%) opine that inflation in the country has increased during the tenure of the PML-N government.

A nationally representative sample of men and women from across the four provinces was asked, “Please tell in your opinion, how much has the inflation rate increased or decreased during PML-N’s regime?” In response to this question, 35% said it had increased a lot, 32% said somewhat increased, 21% said somewhat decreased and 7% said decreased a lot. 5% did not know or wish to respond.

{- All of this is not useful information as it doesn't show the cause.

When discussing the economy, we have to put a priority focus on policy-making. It would be better if the graph you posted directly pointed out a policy that caused inflation so that we could discuss it.

Good thing that the next chart you posted has a clearer topic.

That's more like it. This is a graph that contains something worth discussing. Now let's talk about the cause of inflation.

The main cause of inflation is increased spending, and that's where the problem lies because spending did not increase during PTI's first year and a half in office, it declined.

From the graph you posted, it appears that inflation spiked right before and a few months after IK took office, and there is a reason for that. The Inflation percentage in the chart is directly linked to every time the PKR was devalued, which brings me to my main point, PMLN was the cause of the inflation, let me explain why. His Highness Dar thought that artificially pumping the PKR was a great idea because it gave a nice visualization of the GDP in USD, which PMLN used in its election campaign, among many other reasons he used to justify this dumb decision.

Dar was pumping the market with dollars to keep the value of the rupee high. Once PTI came to power our total reserves stood at $15.7 Billion(Pakistan had major debt repayments due a few weeks after PTI was elected), with the SBP only holding $9B of that $15.7 Billion.

What does all this mean? It means that Pakistan could only cover 2 months' worth of imports with its reserves because it was spending billions to inflate the rupee. The first thing PTI did was let the market decide the PKR's value, this led to a sharp fall in the PKR's value and led to higher inflation as people raised the prices of their goods and services to keep up with the devaluation. Every time you see a spike in the chart, it coincides with a drop in the value of the PKR. This isn't ideal but it was unavoidable.

I hope I was able to provide you with the constructive response you were hoping for regarding this chart. There's a lot more I could go into detail with but I'm not willing to make that kind of a time commitment.

This is such a silly point to raise because it's going against your argument.

This chart shows that Pakistan has been on a decline long before PTI was elected. Pakistan's per capita first falls below India's around the time PPP was elected, and it fell below Bangladesh's around the time PMLN left office in 2018. By the time PTI was elected both these country's economies had already surpassed Pakistan due to the PDM parties(PPP 2008-13, PMLN 2013-18).

It's funny that you bring this up because 2020-21 was the only time in the last decade and a half when Pakistan surpassed India's growth rate, largely due to how well Pakistan handled COVID-19 in comparison to India. I'd also like to point out that both PMLN and PPP called for a complete lockdown(India's method) during COVID-19 which would've literally caused people to starve to death and declined our economy severely, which again goes to show that both these parties are not sane enough to rule.

How is this a point worth bringing up?

https://gallup.com.pk/wp/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Public-Pulse-Report-June-2023-3.pdf

LIKEABILITY RATING OF POLITICAL PARTIES - PTI/58%, PPP/42%, PMLN/38% (These stats are useless unless they are about voting intention.)

Should we switch the reality every time one of these surveys comes out or should we be looking at data and deciding for ourselves which party had the best performance? I provided you with numbers and the context behind those numbers precisely for this reason.

__________________________________________________________________________________

Since I spent all this time addressing the points you raised(the images you copy-pasted), it's only right that I raise some points of my own.

In total PMLN and PPP have ruled Pakistan for over 20 years. PMLN and PPP have ruled Pakistan for over 5-6 times the amount of time PTI has. During their latest term(not counting PDM) PPP increased Pakistan's exports from $20.2 Billion to $25.1 Billion in 5 years. That's an average increase of $0.98 Billion.

PMLN decreased Pakistan's exports of goods from $24.8 Billion to $24.7 Billion in their 5 years of rule(For reference Bangladesh increased its total exports from $29.30 billion to $40.56 billion) while increasing Pakistan's imports from $43.7 billion to $63.1 billion in those same 5 years.

PMLN also increased CAD(current account deficit) from $3.13 Billion in 2014 to $19.2 Billion in 2018, despite not improving our productive capacity.

It's also worth mentioning that PMLN managed to reduce Pakistan's exports in the golden period of international trade. That was the same period when countries like Bangladesh's economies took off.

PTI increased Pakistan's exports from $24.7 Billion to more than $31.2 Billion in 3.5 years. That's an average increase of over $1.85 Billion. If we count total exports including the exports of services then total exports were $38 Billion.

Pakistan recorded a CAD of $12bn in PTI's last 9 months which was entirely due to record-high fuel and commodity prices. Pakistan's current account deficit (CAD) fell sharply by 78% to $0.5 billion in February 2022 from $2.53bn in January 2022.

Under PTI textile exports increased to nearly $20B from $9-11B in 2018. And yes, they are currently on the decline thanks to PDM and the caretaker government.

PTI got the Riko Diq 11 Billion USD penalty removed and turned it into an investment opportunity.

Remittances during PTI's last 12 months were $31.3bn, they are also on the decline thanks to ours truly.

Total years spent ruling Pakistan -

PMLN - 9 years 491 days

PPP - 11 years 950 days

PMLQ - 4 years 249 days

PDM - 1 years 126 days

Combined = 30+ years or just under.

What makes you think they can fix Pakistan's economy now after they have tried for 30 years and failed?

I could go on and on, but I think you get the gist of it.

If you reply please don't copy-paste the contents of an article. It's better to express your thoughts through your own words.

 

[Kianig89]

Pakistan has 12½ crore voters
In 2018 PTI got around 2 crore votes the most to any political party.
Now PTI popularity is at its peak imagine if PTI again gets 2crore votes , then will PDM will gets more than 2 crore votes highly unlikely the writing is on the wall

 

[Bewal Express]

Thanks for the reply.



I'm not going to register my details to read the article. It would've been preferable that you post all the contents of the article here.

Finally, written data sets are better for online forums than visualizations because they don't take up two screens worth of space.



That's not a valid argument. Public opinion is an important parameter but it doesn't reflect the causes of the problems displayed. Not to mention that inflation has been a common theme in Gallup surveys since they started conducting them.

Example:



{- All of this is not useful information as it doesn't show the cause.

When discussing the economy, we have to put a priority focus on policy-making. It would be better if the graph you posted directly pointed out a policy that caused inflation so that we could discuss it.

Good thing that the next chart you posted has a clearer topic.



That's more like it. This is a graph that contains something worth discussing. Now let's talk about the cause of inflation.

The main cause of inflation is increased spending, and that's where the problem lies because spending did not increase during PTI's first year and a half in office, it declined.

From the graph you posted, it appears that inflation spiked right before and a few months after IK took office, and there is a reason for that. The Inflation percentage in the chart is directly linked to every time the PKR was devalued, which brings me to my main point, PMLN was the cause of the inflation, let me explain why. His Highness Dar thought that artificially pumping the PKR was a great idea because it gave a nice visualization of the GDP in USD, which PMLN used in its election campaign, among many other reasons he used to justify this dumb decision.

Dar was pumping the market with dollars to keep the value of the rupee high. Once PTI came to power our total reserves stood at $15.7 Billion(Pakistan had major debt repayments due a few weeks after PTI was elected), with the SBP only holding $9B of that $15.7 Billion.

What does all this mean? It means that Pakistan could only cover 2 months' worth of imports with its reserves because it was spending billions to inflate the rupee. The first thing PTI did was let the market decide the PKR's value, this led to a sharp fall in the PKR's value and led to higher inflation as people raised the prices of their goods and services to keep up with the devaluation. Every time you see a spike in the chart, it coincides with a drop in the value of the PKR. This isn't ideal but it was unavoidable.

I hope I was able to provide you with the constructive response you were hoping for regarding this chart. There's a lot more I could go into detail with but I'm not willing to make that kind of a time commitment.



This is such a silly point to raise because it's going against your argument.

This chart shows that Pakistan has been on a decline long before PTI was elected. Pakistan's per capita first falls below India's around the time PPP was elected, and it fell below Bangladesh's around the time PMLN left office in 2018. By the time PTI was elected both these country's economies had already surpassed Pakistan due to the PDM parties(PPP 2008-13, PMLN 2013-18).

It's funny that you bring this up because 2020-21 was the only time in the last decade and a half when Pakistan surpassed India's growth rate, largely due to how well Pakistan handled COVID-19 in comparison to India. I'd also like to point out that both PMLN and PPP called for a complete lockdown(India's method) during COVID-19 which would've literally caused people to starve to death and declined our economy severely, which again goes to show that both these parties are not sane enough to rule.



How is this a point worth bringing up?

https://gallup.com.pk/wp/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Public-Pulse-Report-June-2023-3.pdf

LIKEABILITY RATING OF POLITICAL PARTIES - PTI/58%, PPP/42%, PMLN/38% (These stats are useless unless they are about voting intention.)

Should we switch the reality every time one of these surveys comes out or should we be looking at data and deciding for ourselves which party had the best performance? I provided you with numbers and the context behind those numbers precisely for this reason.

__________________________________________________________________________________

Since I spent all this time addressing the points you raised(the images you copy-pasted), it's only right that I raise some points of my own.

In total PMLN and PPP have ruled Pakistan for over 20 years. PMLN and PPP have ruled Pakistan for over 5-6 times the amount of time PTI has. During their latest term(not counting PDM) PPP increased Pakistan's exports from $20.2 Billion to $25.1 Billion in 5 years. That's an average increase of $0.98 Billion.

PMLN decreased Pakistan's exports of goods from $24.8 Billion to $24.7 Billion in their 5 years of rule(For reference Bangladesh increased its total exports from $29.30 billion to $40.56 billion) while increasing Pakistan's imports from $43.7 billion to $63.1 billion in those same 5 years.

PMLN also increased CAD(current account deficit) from $3.13 Billion in 2014 to $19.2 Billion in 2018, despite not improving our productive capacity.

It's also worth mentioning that PMLN managed to reduce Pakistan's exports in the golden period of international trade. That was the same period when countries like Bangladesh's economies took off.

PTI increased Pakistan's exports from $24.7 Billion to more than $31.2 Billion in 3.5 years. That's an average increase of over $1.85 Billion. If we count total exports including the exports of services then total exports were $38 Billion.

Pakistan recorded a CAD of $12bn in PTI's last 9 months which was entirely due to record-high fuel and commodity prices. Pakistan's current account deficit (CAD) fell sharply by 78% to $0.5 billion in February 2022 from $2.53bn in January 2022.

Under PTI textile exports increased to nearly $20B from $9-11B in 2018. And yes, they are currently on the decline thanks to PDM and the caretaker government.

PTI got the Riko Diq 11 Billion USD penalty removed and turned it into an investment opportunity.

Remittances during PTI's last 12 months were $31.3bn, they are also on the decline thanks to ours truly.

Total years spent ruling Pakistan -

PMLN - 9 years 491 days

PPP - 11 years 950 days

PMLQ - 4 years 249 days

PDM - 1 years 126 days

Combined = 30+ years or just under.

What makes you think they can fix Pakistan's economy now after they have tried for 30 years and failed?

I could go on and on, but I think you get the gist of it.

If you reply please don't copy-paste the contents of an article. It's better to express your thoughts through your own words.

Our friend uses hunches and half baked Noora social media points than tangible evidences.
@FearlessRoar
I dare you to challenge this detailed reply.

 

[Bewal Express]

Pakistan has 12½ crore voters
In 2018 PTI got around 2 crore votes the most to any political party.
Now PTI popularity is at its peak imagine if PTI again gets 2crore votes , then will PDM will gets more than 2 crore votes highly unlikely the writing is on the wall

They will bomb, intimidate and rig the polls. If that doesn't stop the voters electing PTI candidates, they will arrest the reps and force them to vote for NS. Look at the Foreign press and they too can see what we have known for 2 years that PK is under Martial Law.

 

[BouncerGuy]

More than 45 percent of the population in Pakistan is of people aged less than 45. They know what is going on here. You cannot make aged people understand what is right because they are still thinking like what their ancestors thought earlier. There is a pure lack of education here and this is what is putting Pakistan back to the old days.

IK was popular and now hs become more popular.

 

[hassan918]

The recent general election has proved that all those surveys that were suggesting that Imran Khan is the most popular leader among people of Pakistan were correct. It seems Pakistani people are in favor of Imran Khan in almost every aspect and this favor and support seems to be increasing with every passing day.

 

[Bewal Express]

The recent general election has proved that all those surveys that were suggesting that Imran Khan is the most popular leader among people of Pakistan were correct. It seems Pakistani people are in favor of Imran Khan in almost every aspect and this favor and support seems to be increasing with every passing day.

We told you but you didn't believe us. NS and the mafia politics was to dole out money to the well connected, buying TV and media, rigging elections and then claim to be winning elections. But this is epic, a phainty that will change PK forever.

 

[Bewal Express]

They will bomb, intimidate and rig the polls. If that doesn't stop the voters electing PTI candidates, they will arrest the reps and force them to vote for NS. Look at the Foreign press and they too can see what we have known for 2 years that PK is under Martial Law.

My crystal ball is still working.

 

[Cricket Warrior]

We told you but you didn't believe us. NS and the mafia politics was to dole out money to the well connected, buying TV and media, rigging elections and then claim to be winning elections. But this is epic, a phainty that will change PK forever.

We have some stubborn politicians who still haven't accepted that Imran Khan has become the most popular leader of this country. These elections can't even define the peak at which IK has reached. So it's better for the establishment to accept this truth otherwise we are on the verge of a civil war.

 

[Cricket Warrior]

My crystal ball is still working.

can u plz see in ur crystal ball and tell me what is the future of Bilawal as a PM?

 

[Bewal Express]

We have some stubborn politicians who still haven't accepted that Imran Khan has become the most popular leader of this country. These elections can't even define the peak at which IK has reached. So it's better for the establishment to accept this truth otherwise we are on the verge of a civil war.

IK cannot back down to these thugs and IA he won't. He has izzat and love from millions of PKs because he is brave and honest. The establishment and IK cannot co- exist, and they have to go back to barracks and let PK become a civilised country

 

[Bewal Express]

can u plz see in ur crystal ball and tell me what is the future of Bilawal as a PM?

I need to get it out again

 

[rpant_gabba]

It is a positive with the voter turnout.

What is the end game? Who is going to bell the proverbial cat aka the establishment? Mujib had the voters with him 1970-71 too.

 

[BouncerGuy]

Imran is popular among people because of obvious reasons. One thing he has done during his tenure as PM was to open the minds of people towards corruption. People are now questioning the relevant representatives of their area. These Bilawal's and Nawaz's are nothing but hungry for money. Use to spit venom against each other before the elections and when the elections are done, they make each other their brothers or Fathers. Asif Zardari used to say that if they join hands with Nawaz, GOD will never forgive us, Shehbaz used to say "We will drag Zardari on the roads otherwise change my name" and now they are together again. People cannot ignore this stuff and if they do, then they deserve such a crisis.