FATF and the looming economic challenge for Pakistan

[OoparCut]

https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2018/03/05/the-fatf-grey-list-means-more-trouble-for-pakistan-than-you-think/

It is the worst kept secret in Islamabad that the government of Pakistan is already in talks with the IMF for another bailout later this year, most likely after the elections. Let us not forget that the last two bailouts – in 2008 and 2013 – were approved on very soft terms by the IMF board because the White House pressured them to go easy on Pakistan.

How inclined does anyone think President Trump – or US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson – are to help Pakistan out with the IMF? And in the absence of that help, what kind of terms will the IMF be willing to extract?

Here is the worst-case scenario: the civil servants from the finance ministry go into IMF meetings thinking they know exactly what to expect. The IMF likes to play tough, but ultimately concedes to targets that Pakistan says it can achieve, which tend to not be very difficult targets at all. And even when the government misses them, US influence typically means that the IMF is often willing to let those failed targets slide. But Pakistani bureaucrats do not see the US pulling the strings in the background. They think it is their own brilliance and negotiating skills that won them the day.

That illusion may well come crashing down very soon. And when that happens, Pakistan will find itself needing a lot of cash very fast. And lest anyone in Islamabad think China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) money will come to the rescue, Beijing made it abundantly clear in both 2008 and 2013 that it is in no mood to help Pakistan out of the mess created by its own inability to pay for its own bills. CPEC money will fund the infrastructure projects that China wants, and nothing else.

We have to face the reality that, by accepting CPEC, Pakistan has mortgaged its economic independence and future over to China, and Beijing is a much harsher master than Washington, and our old overlords in the United States are in no mood to bail us out of our mistakes.

 

[Reddy]

This is what happens when the Military establishment controls the foreign policy of Pakistan, got get Grey listed and will later get black listed for terrorism.

Military also had a wonderful idea about squeezing Afghanistan by blocking trade route, guess what happened? Pakistan lost 50% marketshare in Afghanistan with A reduction in exports from $2.7b to $1.2b amounts to a 7% drop in total annual exports of Pakistan which are at around $23b, this makes matter worse in the current tough economic conditions.

 

[OoparCut]

This is what happens when the Military establishment controls the foreign policy of Pakistan, got get Grey listed and will later get black listed for terrorism.

Military also had a wonderful idea about squeezing Afghanistan by blocking trade route, guess what happened? Pakistan lost 50% marketshare in Afghanistan with A reduction in exports from $2.7b to $1.2b amounts to a 7% drop in total annual exports of Pakistan which are at around $23b, this makes matter worse in the current tough economic conditions.

You are just a jealous Indian, so your words don't matter. So what if you're right. Since the source is the enemy, facts don't matter.

PakMil and CPEC gonna mek Pakistan great again. How sad for you!

 

[gani999]

You are just a jealous Indian, so your words don't matter. So what if you're right. Since the source is the enemy, facts don't matter.

PakMil and CPEC gonna mek Pakistan great again. How sad for you!

Chill, fella.

I think we should give this CPEC bashing a rest.

Like everyone else, Pakistan needs investment and prosperity. The Chinese are going where nobody else wants to go. Good for them if they can make it work. If the CPEC makes Pakistan prosperous, India and everyone else can only benefit.

I'd rather have Pakistani youngsters happily employed and earning well at home, than being frustrated and jobless, and eventually getting recruited by Jihadists for their dirty work. Don't forget that much of this is directed towards India.

Lets wish Pakistan well and hope they prosper.

 

[Varun]

I agree with the above post. Fact remains that neither India, Pakistan, Afghanistan or China knows the larger ramifications of CPEC at this stage. India being India will inevitably try to shoot it down, Pakistan being Pakistan will inevitably swoon over it.

I say let's wait for 15 years before passing a judgement.

 

[Napa]

Chill, fella.

I think we should give this CPEC bashing a rest.

Like everyone else, Pakistan needs investment and prosperity. The Chinese are going where nobody else wants to go. Good for them if they can make it work. If the CPEC makes Pakistan prosperous, India and everyone else can only benefit.

I'd rather have Pakistani youngsters happily employed and earning well at home, than being frustrated and jobless, and eventually getting recruited by Jihadists for their dirty work. Don't forget that much of this is directed towards India.

Lets wish Pakistan well and hope they prosper.

Very true. I prosperous Pakistan (which is only possible with a peaceful Pakistan) is good for India.