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How long will India's #1 ranking last?

Zak_Fan

Zak_Fan

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Ever since being knocked off the perch in 2011, India hasn't really held on to the #1 ranking for a substantial period of time. How long do you think this current ranking will last?

My Prediction is 18 months, what do you guys think? :kohli
 
Until Nov 2017 atleast. That's when we tour SA. We have to win all 10 tests at home though to increase our lead and hence our ranking. :murali
 
2 years

I expect India to win 11 of the thirteen home tests

And that should open up enough of a lead in the top for them to be ranked #1 for a year or so
 
While theoretically it could last long 1-2 years, Eng will be no pushovers and Aus may just come out with some plan next year.

We pounded NZ in 2012 before going down to Eng. So have to be very very careful.
 
Untill India is playing at home on spin wickets. After that it will be a phainty again
 
sensible-indian-fan said:
While theoretically it could last long 1-2 years, Eng will be no pushovers and Aus may just come out with some plan next year.

We pounded NZ in 2012 before going down to Eng. So have to be very very careful.
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We pounded them in the 1st test. Bangalore test was much closer. Could've gone either way.
 
Till India goes out of home.... more like Bangladesh in limited overs nowadays.... both are tigers at home.... so literally 1 year....
 
Lets not think too far ahead. Next series is the toughest one, at home vs England who beat us in 2012. First target has to be to win that series hopefully ithout losing any tests. But that will be a lot of hard work.
 
England too won't be able to win...bcoz moeen and Rashid are still not in the same league as swann and Monty were...
Plus I believe England middle order is not settled
Too much will be on root and cook... and Woakes

Plus point for England is Barstow Down the order is very good against spin..and so is woakes... and anderson broad can use reverse swing to good effect...
 
Yatoo said:
SL away is not a big achievement. It's like TN climate and Soil. Srilanka is not an island arc or volcanic island. It's continental island


WI are a dead team
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Those are test playing nations and away series win is an away series win. Obviously winning in England/OZ/SA is better but these matter too. WI are not easy to beat at home always. England failed to do so last year and Pakistan have never won there.
 
naseem said:
Till India goes out of home.... more like Bangladesh in limited overs nowadays.... both are tigers at home.... so literally 1 year....
Click to expand...

Not really. I think we can manage occasional wins and plenty of draws away.
 
Nikhil_cric said:
Those are test playing nations and away series win is an away series win. Obviously winning in England/OZ/SA is better but these matter too. WI are not easy to beat at home always. England failed to do so last year and Pakistan have never won there.
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England has also won in South Africa
South Africa won in Australia

But currently Windies Sri Lanka and newzealand without mccullum is a minnow
 
naseem said:
England has also won in South Africa
South Africa won in Australia

But currently Windies Sri Lanka and newzealand without mccullum is a minnow
Click to expand...

We drew 2 tests in Australia as well. India's only bogey team is England. They have absolutely dominated us both home and away in recent years. :facepalm:
 
We are tigers at home and countries other than Aus,Sa etc,so 1.5 years minimum
 
Rankings and the mace are BS.

What matters is how much momentum the team has, how ruthless and how versatile it is. One of the best things I like about Kohli is that he is a character who has an immense drive to win. Many Indian fans can still remember the constant "it's all about the process" talk by Dhoni even after consistent whitewashes overseas. It always looked like he never enjoyed test cricket as much as he enjoyed LOI cricket and hence the passive body language. Truth be told, Dhoni was never built for test cricket but did well to have a decent career. In comparison, Kohli's aggressive win at all costs captaincy looks like a breath of fresh air. Yeah, it may not work all the time but it's still any day better than passive captaincy.

He doesn't tolerate losses and failures and there is a nice competitive spirit in this team. Everyone is performing nowadays and everyone wants to contribute for the win. Even underrated cricketers like Saha are stepping up when the team requires him. What's more important is that it's a young team with almost everyone in the 25-30 years age group. So most of them have their best years ahead of them. Kohli has now a 12 or 13 match undefeated streak which is commendable. They have been very ruthless at home ever since the England series loss, winning all the matches except the rain abandoned match. Above all, I think the pacers are developing better now that they have been given freedom and even sprayguns like Yadav are starting to bowl impressive spells more frequently.

The England series will be a very good test. They have got great batting depth and some class batters like Cook, Root, Bairstow, etc. So that will be a series to watch out for. It's imperative that India develops into a very good unit with ruthless winning mentality and that will keep them in good stead in the overseas tours. Rankings are useless, teams are recognized by their legacy. The 2000s Indian team had a legacy, they won world over, this Indian team doesn't eventhough it's had a very good start. Kohli has been good in the two overseas matches he captained (apart from the WI series), drew with Australia at Sydney and fell close at Adelaide. The next tour to South Africa in 2017 will be very interesting. India tend to do well in South Africa lately, but everything will depend on our pacers.
 
naseem said:
True that but we gonna crush England this time soon
Click to expand...

England is a smart test team! They will exploit some weaknesses in Indian Team (unsettled opening batting, unsettled seam bowlers, inexperienced middle order). Just relying on the main weapon (spin bowlers & spin pitches) is not going to work against England, we should soon sort out the weaknesses. Some of their batsmen can negate India's strength to huge extent which will even out the contest like anything! (They have the kind of batsmen who gave nightmares to Indians in India over the history - Trescothick, Chanderpaul, Andy Flower, Hayden, etc) But to defeat India, England should definitely have proper spinners like last time. Otherwise its going to draw matches (or lottery - if the pitches are too much bowler friendly in which case England will have the upper-hand due to their smartness & intent in Test Matches!)
 
street cricketer said:
Rankings and the mace are BS.

What matters is how much momentum the team has, how ruthless and how versatile it is. One of the best things I like about Kohli is that he is a character who has an immense drive to win. Many Indian fans can still remember the constant "it's all about the process" talk by Dhoni even after consistent whitewashes overseas. It always looked like he never enjoyed test cricket as much as he enjoyed LOI cricket and hence the passive body language. Truth be told, Dhoni was never built for test cricket but did well to have a decent career. In comparison, Kohli's aggressive win at all costs captaincy looks like a breath of fresh air. Yeah, it may not work all the time but it's still any day better than passive captaincy.

He doesn't tolerate losses and failures and there is a nice competitive spirit in this team. Everyone is performing nowadays and everyone wants to contribute for the win. Even underrated cricketers like Saha are stepping up when the team requires him. What's more important is that it's a young team with almost everyone in the 25-30 years age group. So most of them have their best years ahead of them. Kohli has now a 12 or 13 match undefeated streak which is commendable. They have been very ruthless at home ever since the England series loss, winning all the matches except the rain abandoned match. Above all, I think the pacers are developing better now that they have been given freedom and even sprayguns like Yadav are starting to bowl impressive spells more frequently.

The England series will be a very good test. They have got great batting depth and some class batters like Cook, Root, Bairstow, etc. So that will be a series to watch out for. It's imperative that India develops into a very good unit with ruthless winning mentality and that will keep them in good stead in the overseas tours. Rankings are useless, teams are recognized by their legacy. The 2000s Indian team had a legacy, they won world over, this Indian team doesn't eventhough it's had a very good start. Kohli has been good in the two overseas matches he captained (apart from the WI series), drew with Australia at Sydney and fell close at Adelaide. The next tour to South Africa in 2017 will be very interesting. India tend to do well in South Africa lately, but everything will depend on our pacers.
Click to expand...

To be honest, even under Dhoni the team was doing pretty well at home/ in WI barring the England series. We drew in SA, won everything at home till 2011.

All this team spirit and ruthlessness will come to test when we visit a tough team like England where Kohli personally failed. Let's see how he lifts the spirits up and manages to bat well as well.
 
RamLakhan said:
England is a smart test team! They will exploit some weaknesses in Indian Team (unsettled opening batting, unsettled seam bowlers, inexperienced middle order). Just relying on the main weapon (spin bowlers & spin pitches) is not going to work against England, we should soon sort out the weaknesses. Some of their batsmen can negate India's strength to huge extent which will even out the contest like anything! (They have the kind of batsmen who gave nightmares to Indians in India over the history - Trescothick, Chanderpaul, Andy Flower, Hayden, etc) But to defeat India, England should definitely have proper spinners like last time. Otherwise its going to draw matches (or lottery - if the pitches are too much bowler friendly in which case England will have the upper-hand due to their smartness & intent in Test Matches!)
Click to expand...

Last time England had an inform bell, KP, Prior plus cook...now they have only cook and root plus woakes Barstow.. ..rest is not worth mentioning
 
naseem said:
Last time England had an inform bell, KP, Prior plus cook...now they have only cook and root plus woakes Barstow.. ..rest is not worth mentioning
Click to expand...

Yes that's why I said England has less chances this time, but still their test team is capable enough to capitalize on opposition's weakness and also negate the opposition's strength! India should be careful about their batting order (and picking batsmen) + seam bowlers.
 
Statsman said:
To be honest, even under Dhoni the team was doing pretty well at home/ in WI barring the England series. We drew in SA, won everything at home till 2011.

All this team spirit and ruthlessness will come to test when we visit a tough team like England where Kohli personally failed. Let's see how he lifts the spirits up and manages to bat well as well.
Click to expand...

Yup there hasn't been too much difference in the results. But there is certainly a difference in the approach. This team is being ruthless in the sense that they should have won 3 nil at Sri Lanka if not for the lack of DRS (still it was a bad goof up at Galle). Again I remember Dhoni settling for a draw in the last match of one series in West Indies and winning the series 1 nil. This team should have won 3 nil but a washed out day and some bad bowling on the last day ensured a draw for the windies. Even in SA in 2010, we should have won the series but our bowlers ended up goofing up on the last day against Kallis. I see that aggressive win at all costs approach with Kohli, yes he also does make mistakes but I think that aggressive captaincy will help him in the overseas matches at least not to get whitewashed 8 nil.
 
naseem said:
Zaroor... but really cant see England beating us only if moeen Bhai has a good series with bowl
Click to expand...

Moeen is very underrated. I expect him to play a huge role in India either with the bat or the ball. The guy may not be the most talented but has got great mettle and fight in him (eventhough he doesn't show it outwardly).
 
The home stretch of 13 Tests will start being counted at 50% weighting for ranking purposes around Nov 2019. I would say that we will definitely hold on to the ranking for the next 2 years, and for about 4 to 5 years if we perform well in Aus/Eng/SA (which seems quite possible given the strength of our batting).
 
I don't get why we can't mix and match our test series. We play half a dozen series at home, then head out for several tours on end. It's always been a recipe for disaster.
 
street cricketer said:
Moeen is very underrated. I expect him to play a huge role in India either with the bat or the ball. The guy may not be the most talented but has got great mettle and fight in him (eventhough he doesn't show it outwardly).
Click to expand...


Yes....this time the strength of englishmen are alrounders...stokes....woakes... Johnny boy...moeen and rashid
 
If we hold the #1 ranking for more than 5 years, we will move to the 3rd all time position ahead of England. Shouldn't expect to displace WI in second position for at least a couple of decades!

Screen Shot 2016-10-11 at 9.20.20 AM.jpg
 
If we win 3-0 or 4-0 against England nothing will stop us from being number 1 for at least an year n half. Crucial series this winter. Cook, Root n all rounders will be tough to handle.
 
Indian posters making too much noise, but it was very much expected, but you guys can keep on your self praising untill you step out of india, wish we could have a pak-indo series, and would have settle this debate for once and all that who the best team is, but it is not practically possible in current scenario, so keep beating the hell out of most phatu spin playing teams.
 
The ICC Test Predictor only goes till the NZ in SA series in Feb/Mar 2017. Still quite a few series till then. My best guess about the outcomes of these series is:

Pak - WI = 3-0
Bang - Eng = 0-1
Zimb - SL = 0-2
Aus - SA = 2-1
Ind - Eng = 3-1
NZ - Pak = 1-1
Aus - Pak = 2-0
NZ - Bang = 1-1
Ind - Bang = 1-0
NZ - SA = 1-1

If the above results occur, then the predictor says the rankings of the teams will be:

Screen Shot 2016-10-11 at 12.04.39 PM.jpg

India will have a somewhat comfortable lead prior to hosting Australia in Feb/Mar for 4 Tests (which are too far out for the Predictor atm).

You can play with the Predictor to see how different scenarios pan out. If India draws with Eng 2-2, it will just be ahead of Australia with 114 points. If to this scenario you add Pakistan winning 2-0 in NZ, and matching Aus 1-1, then it would edge ahead of India to get back the #1 ranking.

I am of course hoping that India beats England 4-0 in which case it ratings would be 121 rather than 118. If it follows up with a 3-0 or a 4-0 victory over the visiting Aussies, then it's grip on the #1 ranking will be firm for a few years.
 
So the earliest plausible scenario which has Pakistan getting the #1 ranking back requires India failing to beat Eng, and Pakistan beating NZ 2-0. If this happens the #1 ranking reverts back to Pakistan in Nov 2016. If they go on to tie Aus in Aus, the #1 ranking remains with them at the end of that series.
 
Simple question?
What happens if Pakistan beats W Indies 3 nil...any change in rankings?
 
Expecting India to continue their tradition of losing games whenever they step outside of India.
 
They're not losing a series on these pitches, especially if Kohli continues his 100% win record at the toss.

The only way they can lose it is if England play at their very best with Moeen, Rashid, Stokes and Bairstow having a great series. They'll definitely need to win more tosses than India as well.

Pakistan does have the ability to win all of their next five tests, which will put them at #1 if India lose against England.
 
Napa said:
The ICC Test Predictor only goes till the NZ in SA series in Feb/Mar 2017. Still quite a few series till then. My best guess about the outcomes of these series is:

Pak - WI = 3-0
Bang - Eng = 0-1
Zimb - SL = 0-2
Aus - SA = 2-1
Ind - Eng = 3-1
NZ - Pak = 1-1
Aus - Pak = 2-0
NZ - Bang = 1-1
Ind - Bang = 1-0
NZ - SA = 1-1

If the above results occur, then the predictor says the rankings of the teams will be:

View attachment 70114

India will have a somewhat comfortable lead prior to hosting Australia in Feb/Mar for 4 Tests (which are too far out for the Predictor atm).

You can play with the Predictor to see how different scenarios pan out. If India draws with Eng 2-2, it will just be ahead of Australia with 114 points. If to this scenario you add Pakistan winning 2-0 in NZ, and matching Aus 1-1, then it would edge ahead of India to get back the #1 ranking.

I am of course hoping that India beats England 4-0 in which case it ratings would be 121 rather than 118. If it follows up with a 3-0 or a 4-0 victory over the visiting Aussies, then it's grip on the #1 ranking will be firm for a few years.
Click to expand...

You lose lots of point by losing to some lower ranked team. 2-3 bad series and you will lose enough points. Case in point, SA situation in the last few years. It's not difficult to imagine India losing lots of tests when you play in Eng, SA or Aus. You also have lots of test in those countries so I won't say that it will be safe for few years despite you getting a big lead.
 
sensible-indian-fan said:
While theoretically it could last long 1-2 years, Eng will be no pushovers and Aus may just come out with some plan next year.

We pounded NZ in 2012 before going down to Eng. So have to be very very careful.
Click to expand...

Yes but everyone knew then it was paper over cracks. Failing openers, No.4 spot reserved quota for a non-performer, Ashwin v1.0.

A lot is different now. We might not win 5-0 definitely but I expect us to take the series 3-1 or 3-2. 4-1 would be a very good result but England aren't that bad.
 
A look at India's next round of away tours

Aug 2017 - SL (3)
Jan 2018 - SA (4)
Jul 2018 - Eng (5)
Dec 2018 - Aus (4)

Safe to say we'll have it in our grips till the beginning of 2018 and from then it will define if we're worthy of it or not. 2018 is a decisive year for India.
 
Cricfan4eva said:
A look at India's next round of away tours

Aug 2017 - SL (3)
Jan 2018 - SA (4)
Jul 2018 - Eng (5)
Dec 2018 - Aus (4)

Safe to say we'll have it in our grips till the beginning of 2018 and from then it will define if we're worthy of it or not. 2018 is a decisive year for India.
Click to expand...

Yup, 2018 will really tell if they are truly the best Test team or just another test team which is good at home.

Similarly, the NZ/Aus tours can be really good litmus test for Misbah's team. I dont see him playing past Australia but would he be able to top it off to build a lasting legacy or will fizzle out on a low?
 
To be honest no other team deserve test supremacy more than Pakistan.. .

Lot of effort has gone behind the prepration of this team....not a single superstar... only silent warrior... they are not playing cricket in home since 2009... and still make it regularly to top 3 of test

rankings in last couple of years... credit to them..

Being an Indian it feels nice that your team has topped the charts and is about to stay there for 1 year atleast...but look at the difference between Pakistan and India....

Pakistan tour England and Australia once in 5 years and are expected to play well Every time .!!!!!

They have done so this time and no other subcontinent team can do that .... srilanka too play England quite often...and plays lot more matches..... Pakistan hardly plays that much test match or let alone any matches....like say Sri Lanka India plays......

In fact Pakistan plays most of cricket only in 3 grounds...and that means they are playing in slow low surfaces....and which are not good for perfecting once skill of one prepare for tours to Australia England newzealand.... also most of the time it becomes quite tough to prepare the pitches or ground...and you can't play in UAE throughout the year.... due to hot weather..

Only srilanka and Zimbabwe plays Pakistan regularly...

Given the above scenario Pakistan are truly the number uni in tests.... they will do well in newzealand....in Australia.. .its about time.....how quickly the batters are able to adjust to the pace and bounce of Australia.. .. that's it....

Don't expect yasir to play all the matches.... and don't expect the aussies to run through the Pakistan line-up on the roads
 
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Cricfan4eva said:
Yes but everyone knew then it was paper over cracks. Failing openers, No.4 spot reserved quota for a non-performer, Ashwin v1.0.

A lot is different now. We might not win 5-0 definitely but I expect us to take the series 3-1 or 3-2. 4-1 would be a very good result but England aren't that bad.
Click to expand...

Absolutely true.

In fact, logic tells me if our batsmen just put runs on board and Ashwin maintains whatever he has, we should whitewash them.

But its such a psychological thing too. England have had our number for a long time.
 
sensible-indian-fan said:
Absolutely true.

In fact, logic tells me if our batsmen just put runs on board and Ashwin maintains whatever he has, we should whitewash them.

But its such a psychological thing too. England have had our number for a long time.
Click to expand...

I think England may draw a couple of games, but will win none. I don't see them getting through the lineup of Rahul/Vijay, Gambhir, Pujara, Kohli, Rahane, Rohit, Ashwin, Saha, and Jadeja twice. India bats too deep to lose a game.

Last series in India the English spinners won it for them. Won't happen again.
 
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Yatoo said:
SL away is not a big achievement. It's like TN climate and Soil. Srilanka is not an island arc or volcanic island. It's continental island


WI are a dead team
Click to expand...

I get your larger point but this is definitely not the case atleast in terms of climate. It always seems to rain at Sri Lanka while TN for the most part has a hot or warm and humid climate and rains are definitely less frequent.
 
Zeshan547 said:
Indian posters making too much noise, but it was very much expected, but you guys can keep on your self praising untill you step out of india, wish we could have a pak-indo series, and would have settle this debate for once and all that who the best team is, but it is not practically possible in current scenario, so keep beating the hell out of most phatu spin playing teams.
Click to expand...

Pakistan ppers made more noise when Pakistan hold the mace.... You should have expected the ricochet lol.
 
street cricketer said:
I get your larger point but this is definitely not the case atleast in terms of climate. It always seems to rain at Sri Lanka while TN for the most part has a hot or warm and humid climate and rains are definitely less frequent.
Click to expand...

both get winter rain
 
It is going to last a long time because of the system it has. You have 19 year old players like Pant with a quarter million dollar contract. That money frees up the mind and enables it to focus entirely on performance.

The reality is that commercial systems produce professionals, and larger and richer the system, the greater the number of excellent players it will produce. Of course not every one of the players will succeed, but the sheer number of professional players will overwhelm countries like Pakistan, Bangladesh and West Indies which do not have comparable systems.

I see only Australia (due to their players with excellent physiques and sporting culture) as the only long term competitor for India, especially in ODIs. But they will still have to learn to play spin to beat India in India, whereas India is not far behind them when they play in Australia.

Countries like SA and England are very good at the moment (though far behind in rankings to India), but I do not see them remaining at that level for long.
 
For as long as they play at home and Kohli keeps scoring runs in the comfort of his home.
 
naseem said:
England has also won in South Africa
South Africa won in Australia

But currently Windies Sri Lanka and newzealand without mccullum is a minnow
Click to expand...

Windies drew against England 1-1
SL whitewashed Aus 3-0
NZ whitewashed Pak 2-0

Winning away is difficult be it in WI/ Bdesh/ SL/ NZ.
 
With the Aussies set to tour us for a 4 match series early next year, the reign should extend longer than our previous longest stint at the top.
 
This has been a good match for them. Lost the toss but still bowled and batted very well. They're now a complete team in home conditions and will be extremely hard to beat. Shouldn't lose the ranking throughout the entirety of their home season.
 
Jayant Yadav is an invaluable addition to the squad because of being an all-rounder. Haven't seen him bowl much but if he is half good as Ashwin on rank turner, team will benefit immensely
 
Zak_Fan said:
Ever since being knocked off the perch in 2011, India hasn't really held on to the #1 ranking for a substantial period of time. How long do you think this current ranking will last?

My Prediction is 18 months, what do you guys think? :kohli
Click to expand...

Already 22 months, and with England losing to WI, and home Tests for India coming up, pretty sure India won't be displaced from the #1 spot for at least 18 months more.
 
England was the only serious contender but now they lost to WI, no other team challenging them ATM.
 
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