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How will Kamala Harris fare as Vice President of the USA?

Sadly, Harris is doing badly in the opinion polls.

Biden isn’t giving her interesting and challenging tasks and the word is she is frustrated and bored.

I wonder will he drop her from the ticket in 2024.
 
The Democratic ticket is looking a bit uninspiring and bare for 2024. Most of the bookie’s odds on the next POTUS are centred around a long list of Republican lawmakers (and Trump).

After the fascinating midterm period in 2022, which the mood music has leaning towards the GOP, there are going to be a couple of extremely interesting Party nomination battles coming up in 2023/4.
 
US Vice-President Kamala Harris became the first woman to - briefly - be given presidential powers while Joe Biden underwent a regular health check.

Ms Harris, 57, was in control for 85 minutes, while Mr Biden was placed under anaesthesia for a routine colonoscopy on Friday.

Mr Biden's doctor released a statement after the operation, saying he was healthy and able to execute his duties.

The medical examination came on the eve of the president's 79th birthday.

Ms Harris carried out her duties from her office in the West Wing of the White House, officials said.

She is the first woman - and the first black and South Asian American - to be elected US vice-president.

White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said the temporary transfer of powers in such circumstances was not unprecedented, and that it was part of the process set out in the US constitution.

"As was the case when President George W Bush had the same procedure in 2002 and 2007," she said in a statement.

The president was seen smiling as he returned to the White House. "I feel great," he said.

"President Biden remains a healthy, vigorous, 78-year-old male, who is fit to successfully execute the duties of the president," said Kevin O'Connor, the president's physician.

Kevin O'Connor, the president's physician, said the colonoscopy found a "benign-appear polyp" that was easily removed.

Mr O'Connor added that the president's gait also appeared "perceptibly stiffer and less fluid," than in the past. This was attributed to wear and tear of the spine.

Mr Biden, the oldest US president to take office, had his last full medical examination in December 2019.

At the time, his doctor released a medical report describing him as "healthy, vigorous" and "fit to successfully execute the duties of the presidency".

BBC
 
James said:
The Democratic ticket is looking a bit uninspiring and bare for 2024. Most of the bookie’s odds on the next POTUS are centred around a long list of Republican lawmakers (and Trump).

After the fascinating midterm period in 2022, which the mood music has leaning towards the GOP, there are going to be a couple of extremely interesting Party nomination battles coming up in 2023/4.
Click to expand...

If LBC is to be believed, Trump has turned the GOP into a circus full of crazies and village idiots. No clue where their next Ike or Reagan or Bush 41 is coming from. Someone sensible with a bit of gravitas….
 
Robert said:
Sadly, Harris is doing badly in the opinion polls.

Biden isn’t giving her interesting and challenging tasks and the word is she is frustrated and bored.

I wonder will he drop her from the ticket in 2024.
Click to expand...

What would be some of the interesting tasks that Ms. Harris should get?
 
Kamala Harris humiliated as two more aides planning to quit VP office

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/worl...ng-to-quit-vp-office/ar-AARvKIK?ocid=msedgntp


Fox News contributor Joe Concha branded US Vice president Kamala Harris's office "a sinking ship" after another member of her staff, chief spokesperson Symone Sanders, announced that she will move on to pastures new at the end of the year. Mrs Sanders is following chief Ashley Etienne and two other staffers out the exit the door in what comes as a major shock for Mrs Harris. Her spokesperson has now lifted the lid on her departure and set the record straight after it emerged that she is a "bully" and a "soul destroying" boss.

She explained that there is no sort of problem within the Veep's office and that her decision is related to any unhappiness.

But she is walking out on her job because she needs 'a break' after three years of relentless pressure that come with speaking for and advising both Harris and Joe Biden while dealing with a global pandemic.

Other key members of Harris' staff are now reportedly poised to depart their roles with Peter Volz, the director of press operations and Vince Evans, the deputy director of the Office of Public Engagement and Intergovernmental Affairs set to call it quits.

Concha questions the alarming recent staff exodus of high-level staffers as he criticized Mrs Harris for not doing enough press conferences and face-to-face interviews in recent years.

The journalist told Fox News: "It's one of the easiest jobs in Washington. A spokesperson for Kamala Harris?

"The Kamela Harris who hasn't done one formal press conference during her 300 days in the office and who has done one one-on-one interview since June?"

Concha then put the boot in, highlighting her decreasing popularity.

He also questioned why she 'got chosen in the first place' and 'what she brings to the table' before arguing that her administration did her a disservice and let her down in case she was willing to replace US president Biden ahead of the new elections of 2024.


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Kamala Harris humiliated as two more aides planning to quit VP office
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Fox News contributor Joe Concha branded US Vice president Kamala Harris's office "a sinking ship" after another member of her staff, chief spokesperson Symone Sanders, announced that she will move on to pastures new at the end of the year. Mrs Sanders is following chief Ashley Etienne and two other staffers out the exit the door in what comes as a major shock for Mrs Harris. Her spokesperson has now lifted the lid on her departure and set the record straight after it emerged that she is a "bully" and a "soul destroying" boss.

She explained that there is no sort of problem within the Veep's office and that her decision is related to any unhappiness.


But she is walking out on her job because she needs 'a break' after three years of relentless pressure that come with speaking for and advising both Harris and Joe Biden while dealing with a global pandemic.

Other key members of Harris' staff are now reportedly poised to depart their roles with Peter Volz, the director of press operations and Vince Evans, the deputy director of the Office of Public Engagement and Intergovernmental Affairs set to call it quits.

Concha questions the alarming recent staff exodus of high-level staffers as he criticised Mrs Harris for not doing enough press conferences and face-to-face interviews in recent years.

Kamala Harris© GETTY Kamala Harris


The journalist told Fox News: "It's one of the easiest jobs in Washington. A spokesperson for Kamala Harris?

"The Kamela Harris who hasn't done one formal press conference during her 300 days in the office and who has done one one-on-one interview since June?"

Concha then put the boot in, highlighting her decreasing popularity.

He also questioned why she 'got chosen in the first place' and 'what she brings to the table' before arguing that her administration did her a disservice and let her down in case she was willing to replace US president Biden ahead of the new elections of 2024.

Joe Biden and Kamala Harris© GETTY Joe Biden and Kamala Harris
He continued: "Being the VP spokesperson there is not a lot to do.

"But I guess when your boss's approval is at 28% and she's pulling even lower on a number one job, the US Southern border, where migrants continue to flow over, two million passing over this year, I guess I'd leave too.

"This is a sinking ship.

"And Symone Sanders was a problem figure during the campaign in terms of her TV appearances, she has been as diminished as Kamala Harris herself.

"But either way now in the span of one month the VP, her communications director [is] gone, her spokesperson [is] gone.

"Her schedule is extremely light. Is this your plan B if Joe Biden doesn't wanna run in 2024?

"This administration is doing her no favours if that's the case."

Mrs Harris is the first woman, first African American and first Asian American to hold the vice presidency.
 
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Harris calls Vance 'rubber stamp' for Trump and his 'extreme' agenda​


Vice President Kamala Harris in a short video released early Wednesday said former President Donald Trump's new running mate, Sen. J.D. Vance, will act as a "rubber stamp" for Trump and his "extreme" agenda.

"Donald Trump has picked his new running mate: J.D. Vance. Trump looked for someone he knew would be a rubber stamp for his extreme agenda," Harris said in the video. "Make no mistake: J.D. Vance will be loyal only to Trump, not to our country."

Harris called out Vance for saying he wouldn't have certified the 2020 election results, a comment he made in an interview with ABC News.

She compared him to former Vice President Mike Pence, saying that Vance "would have carried out Trump's plan to overturn the 2020 election."

She also called him out for supporting a national abortion ban and for voting against protections for IVF in the Senate.

"And if elected, he will help implement the extreme Project 2025 plan for a second Trump term, which would target critical programs like Head Start and Medicare," Harris said.

She added, "But we are not going to let that happen."

abcnews.go.com

Harris calls Vance 'rubber stamp' for Trump and his 'extreme' agenda

Vice President Kamala Harris in a short video released early Wednesday said former President Donald Trump's new running mate, Sen. J.D. Vance, will be a "rubber stamp."
abcnews.go.com abcnews.go.com
 
Harris speaks at fundraiser on Cape Cod amid more calls for Biden to drop out

Vice President Harris attended a sold-out campaign fundraiser on Cape Cod on Saturday, amid growing calls for President Biden to step aside as his party’s 2024 presidential nominee.

Some 37 congressional Democrats have called on Biden to drop out of the 2024 race, and several have urged the president to pass the torch to Harris. Biden has been off the campaign trail after receiving a covid diagnosis earlier in the week, and the window is narrowing for the Democratic Party to consider a new nominee ahead of the party’s national convention.

Since the night of his halting debate performance last month, the vice president has repeatedly defended Biden, stating that he is the party’s nominee and encouraging others to “fight for him.”

As arguably the heir apparent for the nomination should the president step aside, Harris would need to shore up voter and donor support quickly if Biden exits the race. At Saturday’s event, Harris struck a similar tone of optimism for the campaign and support for the president.

“I’m testifying as a firsthand witness,” she said, raising her hands in the air, “with every decision [Biden] makes in the Oval Office, I’m telling you he thinks about how it will impact everyday working Americans.”

“We are going to win,” Harris declared to enormous applause. “It’s not going to be easy. … It takes believing in something and then going for it.”

Harris also criticized former president Donald Trump’s attempt to convey a message of “unity” at the Republican National Convention — a word used on both sides of the aisle after last weekend’s assassination attempt against him.

“If you claim to stand for unity, then you need to know it’s more than just a word,” Harris said.

Tickets for Harris’s event in Provincetown — a longtime hub for artists on Cape Cod that’s a popular beach getaway for the LGBTQ community — ranged from $150 to $150,000. The fundraiser, hosted by event planner Bryan Rafanelli, was announced before the presidential debate late last month.

Harris recounted how her parents would take her to marches for “freedom and equality. Not for some, but for all,” she said. “So when it comes to the fight for LGBTQ rights, as much as anything, I know it to be a fundamental fight for freedom.”

Harris also warned the guests that if Trump wins in November, “he will once again implement policies that target the LGBTQ community.” She added that Trump’s running mate, Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio), will “undoubtedly be a rubber stamp” for Trump’s “extremist anti-LGBTQ agenda.”

Rafanelli said that more than 1,000 people were in attendance and that more than $2 million had been raised

“Back in 2012, we were fighting for the recognition of our marriages and it was Joe Biden who listened to our voices and stood up for our community,” Rafanelli said at Saturday’s event. “Let me be clear, if we do not win this election, we will be fighting for a lot more than marriage equality. We will be fighting for our right to exist.”

He added that Harris “is not just a politician, she’s a trailblazer, a symbol of progress …[she] has consistently fought for the LGBT community.”

Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Gov. Maura Healey of Massachusetts, Boston Mayor Michelle Wu and actor Jennifer Coolidge were among the attendees of the event.

Upon departure, a reporter shouted a question about whether the president was “doing okay.” She gave a thumbs up.

SOURCE: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/07/20/joe-biden-kamala-harris-democratic-ticket/
 
Harris has enough support from delegates to be Democratic nominee

Vice-President Kamala Harris has attracted the support of enough Democratic delegates to become the party's nominee for president, the BBC's US partner CBS News reports.

A survey by the Associated Press on Monday evening said Ms Harris had received the endorsement of more than the 1,976 delegates needed to win the nomination in the first round of voting.

Ms Harris said she was "proud" to have secured "broad support" and looked forward to formally accepting the nomination.

Delegates are people who are selected to represent their electoral area at the Democratic National Convention (DNC), the party's key nominating event.

Such endorsements are non-binding, but if the total holds between now and when delegates cast their votes, scheduled to take place from 1-7 August, Ms Harris would formally clinch the party's nomination.

Delegations from at least 27 states have issued statements of their full delegations supporting Ms Harris, according to CBS.

The survey is an indication of the groundswell of support for Ms Harris after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on Sunday.

Since Mr Biden's announcement, millions of dollars in donations have poured into her campaign and leading Democrats have lined up to support her bid as the Democratic nominee.

Speaking to staff at her campaign's headquarters in Wilmington, Delaware, on Monday evening, Ms Harris told campaign staff: "We have 106 days until Election Day and in that time, we have some hard work to do."

Ms Harris took the team through her vision of the country and the views that she says separate this campaign from Trump's, saying she would gladly put her record up against his.

"Our campaign has always been about two different versions of what we see as the future of our country," she said. "One focuses on the future, the other focuses on the past. Donald Trump wants to take our country backwards... We believe in a brighter future that makes room for all Americans."

She also noted Mr Biden's accomplishments, saying her time serving as his vice-president was "one of the greatest honours of my life".

Ms Harris noted the "roller coaster" of "mixed emotions" they've all been on because "I love Joe Biden, and I know we all do". She promised she'd work hard to earn the nomination for president and unite both Democrats and the country as a whole.

Before Ms Harris took to the stage, Mr Biden made his first comments since dropping out of the 2024 election via phone call while isolating after contracting Covid-19.

He thanked aides and told them to "embrace" Ms Harris because "she's the best".

"I know yesterday's news was surprising and hard for you to hear, but it was the right thing to do," Mr Biden told them.

He acknowledged the team had "poured" their "heart and soul" into helping him stay in office for a second term but said, "I'm not going anywhere" and vowed to remain "fully engaged" in the campaign.

"I'm hoping you'll give every bit of your heart and soul that you gave to me to Kamala," Mr Biden told them.

"We still need to save this democracy," he said. "Trump is still a danger to this nation."

Mr Biden is due to return to the White House on Tuesday afternoon after self-isolating in Delaware.

BBC
 
BouncerGuy said:
Harris has enough support from delegates to be Democratic nominee

Vice-President Kamala Harris has attracted the support of enough Democratic delegates to become the party's nominee for president, the BBC's US partner CBS News reports.

A survey by the Associated Press on Monday evening said Ms Harris had received the endorsement of more than the 1,976 delegates needed to win the nomination in the first round of voting.

Ms Harris said she was "proud" to have secured "broad support" and looked forward to formally accepting the nomination.

Delegates are people who are selected to represent their electoral area at the Democratic National Convention (DNC), the party's key nominating event.

Such endorsements are non-binding, but if the total holds between now and when delegates cast their votes, scheduled to take place from 1-7 August, Ms Harris would formally clinch the party's nomination.

Delegations from at least 27 states have issued statements of their full delegations supporting Ms Harris, according to CBS.

The survey is an indication of the groundswell of support for Ms Harris after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on Sunday.

Since Mr Biden's announcement, millions of dollars in donations have poured into her campaign and leading Democrats have lined up to support her bid as the Democratic nominee.

Speaking to staff at her campaign's headquarters in Wilmington, Delaware, on Monday evening, Ms Harris told campaign staff: "We have 106 days until Election Day and in that time, we have some hard work to do."

Ms Harris took the team through her vision of the country and the views that she says separate this campaign from Trump's, saying she would gladly put her record up against his.

"Our campaign has always been about two different versions of what we see as the future of our country," she said. "One focuses on the future, the other focuses on the past. Donald Trump wants to take our country backwards... We believe in a brighter future that makes room for all Americans."

She also noted Mr Biden's accomplishments, saying her time serving as his vice-president was "one of the greatest honours of my life".

Ms Harris noted the "roller coaster" of "mixed emotions" they've all been on because "I love Joe Biden, and I know we all do". She promised she'd work hard to earn the nomination for president and unite both Democrats and the country as a whole.

Before Ms Harris took to the stage, Mr Biden made his first comments since dropping out of the 2024 election via phone call while isolating after contracting Covid-19.

He thanked aides and told them to "embrace" Ms Harris because "she's the best".

"I know yesterday's news was surprising and hard for you to hear, but it was the right thing to do," Mr Biden told them.

He acknowledged the team had "poured" their "heart and soul" into helping him stay in office for a second term but said, "I'm not going anywhere" and vowed to remain "fully engaged" in the campaign.

"I'm hoping you'll give every bit of your heart and soul that you gave to me to Kamala," Mr Biden told them.

"We still need to save this democracy," he said. "Trump is still a danger to this nation."

Mr Biden is due to return to the White House on Tuesday afternoon after self-isolating in Delaware.

BBC
Click to expand...
Well that seals it up. The final endorsements should come in the next week and the Vice-Presidential selection in a couple of weeks. The Democratic convention is mid-August I think and should give her a boost for a couple of news cycles. After that it's up to her.

She still has pretty low chances but at least it's a contest now. With Biden, there was zero excitement and most Democratic voters, organisers and donors had pretty much given up. There was a sort of quiet despair.
 
My only problem with Kamala didi is her woke leftist politics which refrains from calling out Islamist extremism in US and Europe. Ok the other hand JD Vance and Trump are brave to call it out.
 
Bhaijaan said:
My only problem with Kamala didi is her woke leftist politics which refrains from calling out Islamist extremism in US and Europe. Ok the other hand JD Vance and Trump are brave to call it out.
Click to expand...

Once again Pot calling the kettle black.

Your Mp/Pandits calling for the massacre of 200k muslims for slaughtering a COW.
 

Why Pakistani Americans are signing up to Republican party​


WASHINGTON: “I have been a Democrat all along, but no more,” said Gibran Syed, who voted for Joe Biden in 2020.

“Too much money spent on welfare and LGBTQ issues, incompetent leadership, and illegal immigration,” he explained when asked why he switched to the Republicans.

“I wouldn’t even mention Gaza, as both parties would react similarly on that issue.”

He was speaking at an event organised to emphasise the importance of Pakistani and Muslim votes in Virginia, a crucial swing state.

Here, many attendees pledged their support for Donald Trump in the upcoming November elections.

“There are more than 350,000 registered Muslim voters in Northern Virginia, with a majority being Pakistani,” said Mansoor Qureshi, the event’s organiser. “If they all go out to vote, they would become a significant and influential political force.”

Rubina Wadhwa, a repeat Trump voter since 2018, attributed the low turnout to a specific demographic: ‘Pakistani and Muslim women don’t vote,’ she observed. However, she remains optimistic, believing that “if Pakistani and Muslim women exercise their right to vote, they can significantly amplify the influence of their communities across the United States.”

The evening featured Republican Juan Pablo Segura, the current Chief Deputy Secretary of Trade and Commerce for the state of Virginia, who expressed his commitment to addressing the issues facing immigrant communities. He assured the Pakistani community of his availability and willingness to collaborate for their benefit.

Virginia’s Governor, Glenn Youngkin, is a Republican, and the party also controls the House of Delegates, while Democrats hold a narrow majority in the Senate.

This balance may shift in the November elections, which could also impact the presidential race because of the electoral college system.

The electoral college has a total of 538 votes available, and a presidential candidate must receive a majority of at least 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.

Segura engaged with the leaders of the Pakistan American community, listening to their concerns and discussing potential solutions. He emphasised the importance of unity and “active participation in the electoral process to ensure their voices are heard and their needs are met.”

The organisers’ mission is to inspire the Pakistani community to actively participate in the American electoral system, advocating for the best political leaders who represent their interests.

Nuzaira Azam, a Democrat, attended the Republican event to gauge how the recent tragedy in Gaza might influence Muslim voters. She observed that many participants who had previously voted for Biden in 2018 were now leaning towards Trump, citing the Gaza conflict as a key factor.

“The situation in Gaza is a festering wound that can only be healed through the implementation of a two-state solution,’ she said, adding, “It’s heartbreaking to even think about the suffering in Gaza.’”

Published in Dawn, July 23rd, 2024
 
Aang_The_last_airbender said:

Why Pakistani Americans are signing up to Republican party​


WASHINGTON: “I have been a Democrat all along, but no more,” said Gibran Syed, who voted for Joe Biden in 2020.

“Too much money spent on welfare and LGBTQ issues, incompetent leadership, and illegal immigration,” he explained when asked why he switched to the Republicans.

“I wouldn’t even mention Gaza, as both parties would react similarly on that issue.”

He was speaking at an event organised to emphasise the importance of Pakistani and Muslim votes in Virginia, a crucial swing state.

Here, many attendees pledged their support for Donald Trump in the upcoming November elections.

“There are more than 350,000 registered Muslim voters in Northern Virginia, with a majority being Pakistani,” said Mansoor Qureshi, the event’s organiser. “If they all go out to vote, they would become a significant and influential political force.”

Rubina Wadhwa, a repeat Trump voter since 2018, attributed the low turnout to a specific demographic: ‘Pakistani and Muslim women don’t vote,’ she observed. However, she remains optimistic, believing that “if Pakistani and Muslim women exercise their right to vote, they can significantly amplify the influence of their communities across the United States.”

The evening featured Republican Juan Pablo Segura, the current Chief Deputy Secretary of Trade and Commerce for the state of Virginia, who expressed his commitment to addressing the issues facing immigrant communities. He assured the Pakistani community of his availability and willingness to collaborate for their benefit.

Virginia’s Governor, Glenn Youngkin, is a Republican, and the party also controls the House of Delegates, while Democrats hold a narrow majority in the Senate.

This balance may shift in the November elections, which could also impact the presidential race because of the electoral college system.

The electoral college has a total of 538 votes available, and a presidential candidate must receive a majority of at least 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.

Segura engaged with the leaders of the Pakistan American community, listening to their concerns and discussing potential solutions. He emphasised the importance of unity and “active participation in the electoral process to ensure their voices are heard and their needs are met.”

The organisers’ mission is to inspire the Pakistani community to actively participate in the American electoral system, advocating for the best political leaders who represent their interests.

Nuzaira Azam, a Democrat, attended the Republican event to gauge how the recent tragedy in Gaza might influence Muslim voters. She observed that many participants who had previously voted for Biden in 2018 were now leaning towards Trump, citing the Gaza conflict as a key factor.

“The situation in Gaza is a festering wound that can only be healed through the implementation of a two-state solution,’ she said, adding, “It’s heartbreaking to even think about the suffering in Gaza.’”

Published in Dawn, July 23rd, 2024
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It's an interesting development. From what I can see on forums etc., the older generation Asian community - Indians, Pakistanis etc. seem to have swung almost completely towards Trump. The biggest issues seem to be immigration and "woke" politics.

The younger generation (say 40 and below) seem to be fervently Democrat. I don't know about the Pakistani younger generation but the family WhatsApp group is abuzz since Kamala's almost secured the nomination. 4 of my nephews and nieces will be campaigning and stumping for her - 1 is actually a precinct captain.

I wonder how the Asian vote will net out.
 
Red-Indian said:
The younger generation (say 40 and below) seem to be fervently Democrat. I don't know about the Pakistani younger generation but the family WhatsApp group is abuzz since Kamala's almost secured the nomination. 4 of my nephews and nieces will be campaigning and stumping for her - 1 is actually a precinct captain.
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Having watched her speeches in the last few days, I have to say her charisma is non-existent compared to Biden or Trump, atleast as fas ar public speaking is concerned. Maybe she is better in interviews.
 
RexRex said:
Having watched her speeches in the last few days, I have to say her charisma is non-existent compared to Biden or Trump, atleast as fas ar public speaking is concerned. Maybe she is better in interviews.
Click to expand...
Yes she does come across very wooden and prepared. Hillary had the same problem so did Romney. You've got to have something that distinguishes you - an incredible orator like Obama, folksy charm like Biden & Bush, fiery insult comic like Trump. Except for her skin colour, she looks and sounds like she's been cut from a California politician cookie cutter mold. Her husband's a decent asset - military veteran, clean cut American.
 
Red-Indian said:
Yes she does come across very wooden and prepared. Hillary had the same problem so did Romney. You've got to have something that distinguishes you - an incredible orator like Obama, folksy charm like Biden & Bush, fiery insult comic like Trump. Except for her skin colour, she looks and sounds like she's been cut from a California politician cookie cutter mold. Her husband's a decent asset - military veteran, clean cut American.
Click to expand...

Kamala eviscerated in the polls ! Dems needed to have picked a more interesting authentic candidate.

While Democrats celebrate President Joe Biden’s decision to step aside and allow Vice President Kamala Harris to headline the party’s ticket this fall, polling shows that she still faces an uphill battle against former President Donald Trump.

A HarrisX/Forbes poll conducted between July 19-21 found that among registered voters, Trump boasts a 9-point lead (50%-41%) over Harris. Among likely voters, that lead expands to 11 points (51%-40%). Biden performs slightly better than his preferred successor among both cohorts.

HarrisX CEO and chief pollster Dritan Nesho noted that “Kamala Harris starts her 2024 battle behind Trump, who is enjoying a strong post-convention bump and leads her by almost digits in our polling.”

“If the polls don’t start to close and show better traction for her, Biden’s decision to step aside for Harris may be a case of ‘too similar, too late,'” he continued.

A Quinnipiac poll of registered voters conducted over the same timespan also found that Trump leads, but by only two points (49%-47%) in a one-on-one matchup with Harris and four points when third-party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein, and Cornel West are included among respondents’ options.

Although that would be indicative of a much closer race than the HarrisX survey suggested, it would still mean that Trump is the heavy favorite, considering the fact that he won the 2016 election despite losing the popular vote by two points and nearly prevailed in 2020 despite losing it by 4.5%.

A CBS poll of likely voters carried out between July 16-18 tracked closely with Quinnipiac’s findings, showing that 51% would back Trump and 48% would back Harris. It also found that Harris’s approval rating is underwater by 16 points, 42%-58%.

A swing state survey of registered conducted at the behest of a Democratic political action committee from July 17-20, meanwhile, found that Trump would best Harris in in Arizona (46%-40%), Michigan (46%-41%), North Carolina (48%-44%), Pennsylvania (46%-42%).

While some observers have touted Harris as a much stronger general election candidate, a group of eight New York Times writers reached the conclusion that she was the weakest of 10 potential Democratic nominees after Biden dropped out of the race on Sunday.

www.mediaite.com

Trump Crushes Harris in Series of Polls as New General Election Matchup Takes Shape

Polling shows that Vice President Kamala Harris still faces an uphill battle against former President Donald Trump.
www.mediaite.com www.mediaite.com
 
Last edited by a moderator:
RexRex said:
Kamala eviscerated in the polls ! Dems needed to have picked a more interesting authentic candidate.

While Democrats celebrate President Joe Biden’s decision to step aside and allow Vice President Kamala Harris to headline the party’s ticket this fall, polling shows that she still faces an uphill battle against former President Donald Trump.

A HarrisX/Forbes poll conducted between July 19-21 found that among registered voters, Trump boasts a 9-point lead (50%-41%) over Harris. Among likely voters, that lead expands to 11 points (51%-40%). Biden performs slightly better than his preferred successor among both cohorts.

HarrisX CEO and chief pollster Dritan Nesho noted that “Kamala Harris starts her 2024 battle behind Trump, who is enjoying a strong post-convention bump and leads her by almost digits in our polling.”

“If the polls don’t start to close and show better traction for her, Biden’s decision to step aside for Harris may be a case of ‘too similar, too late,'” he continued.

A Quinnipiac poll of registered voters conducted over the same timespan also found that Trump leads, but by only two points (49%-47%) in a one-on-one matchup with Harris and four points when third-party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein, and Cornel West are included among respondents’ options.

Although that would be indicative of a much closer race than the HarrisX survey suggested, it would still mean that Trump is the heavy favorite, considering the fact that he won the 2016 election despite losing the popular vote by two points and nearly prevailed in 2020 despite losing it by 4.5%.

A CBS poll of likely voters carried out between July 16-18 tracked closely with Quinnipiac’s findings, showing that 51% would back Trump and 48% would back Harris. It also found that Harris’s approval rating is underwater by 16 points, 42%-58%.

A swing state survey of registered conducted at the behest of a Democratic political action committee from July 17-20, meanwhile, found that Trump would best Harris in in Arizona (46%-40%), Michigan (46%-41%), North Carolina (48%-44%), Pennsylvania (46%-42%).

While some observers have touted Harris as a much stronger general election candidate, a group of eight New York Times writers reached the conclusion that she was the weakest of 10 potential Democratic nominees after Biden dropped out of the race on Sunday.

www.mediaite.com

Trump Crushes Harris in Series of Polls as New General Election Matchup Takes Shape

Polling shows that Vice President Kamala Harris still faces an uphill battle against former President Donald Trump.
www.mediaite.com www.mediaite.com
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Dude, I'm sure you know it already but don't buy individual polls and definitely don't buy polls quoted and interpreted by random sites calling themselves 'mediaite'. If you are genuinely interested in polling, the best to follow are NYT and fivethirtyeight for quality adjusted polls and realclearpolitics for simple averages irrespective of quality.

There's been limited polling since the announcement but it's clear the margins are thin so far. Three high quality pollsters have released numbers from polls fully conducted after the announcement so far -

Quinnipiac - Trump 49/Harris 47
Reuters/Ipsos - Trump 42/Harris 44
NPR/PBS - Trump 46/Harris 45

Few things are clear
- At a national level, they're running neck to neck at an overall voting percentage level
- However, this trend is not reliable since the data sample is small and Harris is in the middle of a big news cycle boost
- Neck-to-neck won't be enough for Harris to win the electoral college given Trump and the Republican party's traditional advantage on vote distribution
- We now need more detailed state level polling especially in the swing states - Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Nevada, Arizona etc.

To be honest, I wouldn't really trust any polling until early September once things settle down after the Conventions and people've had a good look and made up their minds.
 
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She will lose, worst that Biden would have been . But in a way she is a winner, she got more fame than she deserved. Very uninspiring candidate.
 
Kamala Harris slams Trump at first rally as he hits back

US Vice-President Kamala Harris has gone on the offensive against Donald Trump in the first rally of her White House campaign, portraying November’s election as a choice between a former prosecutor and a convicted felon.

Speaking to a crowd of about 3,000 in the battleground state of Wisconsin, Ms Harris likened her Republican opponent to fraudsters she said she had prosecuted.

Trump, meanwhile, assailed her record on the border, and posted on social media: “Lyin’ Kamala Harris destroys everything she touches!”

It comes a day after she secured the support of a majority of Democratic delegates, paving the way for her to become the party's nominee.

On Sunday afternoon, President Joe Biden announced he was withdrawing from the race and endorsed his vice-president amid mounting pressure from top Democrats and donors following his disastrous debate against Trump in late June.

The fledgling Harris campaign raised a staggering $100m plus (£77m) in the 36 hours after Mr Biden’s exit.

Adding to her momentum, a new national poll from Reuters and Ipsos shows her with a two-point lead over Trump, 44% to 42%.

Taking the stage to applause at a high school in a suburb of Milwaukee on Tuesday, Ms Harris highlighted her experience as California's attorney general.

"I took on perpetrators of all kinds,” she said. “Predators who abused women. Fraudsters who ripped off consumers. Cheaters who broke the rules for their own gain.”

"So hear me when I say I know Donald Trump's type," Ms Harris added. "In this campaign, I promise you, I will proudly put my record against his any day of the week."

In response, the crowd shouted "Kamala! Kamala!" Some observers noted that the audience's enthusiasm contrasted with that seen at Biden events this electoral cycle.

When her Republican opponent's name was mentioned, many attendees chanted "lock him up", echoing a similar refrain at Trump events when he was running against Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Trump, meanwhile, posted on his social media platform, Truth Social, about a poll finding that Ms Harris was the most unpopular vice-president in US history.

He also shared a post noting that she was rated by the non-partisan congressional scorekeeper GovTrack as one of the most left-wing among dozens of Democratic senators during her tenure.

Ms Harris laid out a number of liberal priorities in her speech, on gun control and abortion access, as well as child poverty, union rights and affordable healthcare.

"Do we want to live in a country of freedom, compassion and rule of law, or a country of chaos, fear and hate?" she said.

Whether Ms Harris can maintain her momentum is unclear. In a memo released Tuesday, pollster Tony Fabrizio predicted her "honeymoon" period with voters would end and that there would be a "refocus on her role as Biden's partner and co-pilot".

The Trump campaign is attacking Ms Harris' "failure" to stem a record influx of illegal immigrants at the US-Mexico border. It has also signalled that it will slam the Biden-Harris administration's record on crime and inflation.

A Tuesday afternoon email from the Republican nominee’s team accused her of bailing out "accused murderers, rapists and other violent offenders", insulting Israel and deceiving the US public about Mr Biden's "cognitive decline".

During a call with reporters, Trump said of Ms Harris: "She's a radical left person, but this country doesn't want a radical left person to destroy it.

"I think she should be easier than Biden, because he was slightly more mainstream, but not much."

Trump also said he was open to debating her in September, when he was originally due to face Biden on ABC News.

"I haven't agreed to anything,” he said. “I agreed to a debate with Joe Biden. But I want to debate her. She'll be no different."

Most Democratic lawmakers - including House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer - have already endorsed Ms Harris' candidacy.

Entertainers George Clooney, Barbra Streisand and Jamie Lee Curtis and other Hollywood stars have also endorsed her, potentially unlocking further substantial donations to her campaign.

Her campaign is still vetting potential running mates.

On Wednesday, President Biden will deliver an Oval Office speech explaining his decision to withdraw. He arrived back at the White House on Tuesday after several days away from the public eye as he recovered from Covid.

In Washington, a Republican member of the US House of Representatives introduced articles of impeachment against Ms Harris.

The resolution, written by Tennessee's Andy Ogles, accuses her of high crimes and misdemeanours over her handling of immigration at the border.

It is considered unlikely to advance.

BBC
 
Red-Indian said:
Dude, I'm sure you know it already but don't buy individual polls and definitely don't buy polls quoted and interpreted by random sites calling themselves 'mediaite'. If you are genuinely interested in polling, the best to follow are NYT and fivethirtyeight for quality adjusted polls and realclearpolitics for simple averages irrespective of quality.

There's been limited polling since the announcement but it's clear the margins are thin so far. Three high quality pollsters have released numbers from polls fully conducted after the announcement so far -

Quinnipiac - Trump 49/Harris 47
Reuters/Ipsos - Trump 42/Harris 44
NPR/PBS - Trump 46/Harris 45
Click to expand...

I agree, obv it's too early to tell but I still suspect Kamala is hard to get enthused about.

Btw I used to read realclearpolitics a lot for polls & opinion but don't have the time anymore. I recommend Mediate if you want quick bite-sized snapshots of current US politics, plenty of videoclips.
 
Harris seems to be doing better than expected in the latest polls and political commentary so far.

Elon Musk seems to be back peddling from Trump support too.

Elon Musk denies report he will donate $45m a month to Trump Super Pac​

Musk said it was ‘not true’ that he was planning large monthly donations but said he had created ‘America Pac’ and is making ‘lower level’ donations

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has denied reports that emerged last week that he was planning to donate $45m a month to a Super Pac focused on getting Trump elected.

On Tuesday, Musk appeared on Jordan Peterson’s show, where he said the claim was “simply not true”. “I am not donating $45m a month to Trump,” he said.
 
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Red-Indian said:
Dude, I'm sure you know it already but don't buy individual polls and definitely don't buy polls quoted and interpreted by random sites calling themselves 'mediaite'. If you are genuinely interested in polling, the best to follow are NYT and fivethirtyeight for quality adjusted polls and realclearpolitics for simple averages irrespective of quality.

There's been limited polling since the announcement but it's clear the margins are thin so far. Three high quality pollsters have released numbers from polls fully conducted after the announcement so far -

Quinnipiac - Trump 49/Harris 47
Reuters/Ipsos - Trump 42/Harris 44
NPR/PBS - Trump 46/Harris 45

Few things are clear
- At a national level, they're running neck to neck at an overall voting percentage level
- However, this trend is not reliable since the data sample is small and Harris is in the middle of a big news cycle boost
- Neck-to-neck won't be enough for Harris to win the electoral college given Trump and the Republican party's traditional advantage on vote distribution
- We now need more detailed state level polling especially in the swing states - Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Nevada, Arizona etc.

To be honest, I wouldn't really trust any polling until early September once things settle down after the Conventions and people've had a good look and made up their minds.
Click to expand...
So far, Republicans are suddenly stuck at how to attack Harris. They had been so much parading the age narrative on Biden, it will be simply reversed as Trump is the old guy with old person symptoms. Just mocking her laughter goes back to what they tried Hillary. Against Hillary they had minefield of points to attack, Not so much against Harris.

It is unlikely but the roles seems to be slightly reversed from 2016. Trump and co are too confident like Hillary and dems were.
 
Can this turn out to be the "chaiwala Modi" moment for US elections??

A GOP congressman called Kamala Harris a ‘DEI hire.’ Some caution it’s a sign of what’s to come​


In the first full day of her presidential campaign, Vice President Kamala Harris swiftly earned enough delegates to secure the Democratic nomination and raised a historic $81 million.

And yet, less than 24 hours after Harris formally launched her bid for the White House, some Republicans zeroed in on a line of attack: her race.

In an interview with CNN’s Manu Raju Monday, Tennessee Republican Rep. Tim Burchett suggested President Joe Biden selected Harris as his running mate solely because she is Black: “One hundred percent she is a DEI hire,” he said, referring to diversity, equity and inclusion. “Her record is abysmal at best.”

It’s a familiar strategy to political analysts who say Burchett’s comments echo tactics Republicans used during the 2008 election to drive the conspiracy around Barack Obama’s birthplace, and caution that it could be a sign of what’s to come along the already turbulent road to Election Day.

“There’s been this constant debate about mediocrity versus meritocracy. The truth is for most of American history, White men were the only people who were ever considered, it didn’t matter if they were mediocre,” said Democratic strategist Keith Boykin, who likened this moment to the Republican “Southern Strategy” of the 1960s, where politicians relied on racial grievance to drive White voters to the polls.

“(Meritocracy) became a part of the conversation when Black people, and women, and people of color and queer people started to enter into the workforce and society in public ways. And suddenly there became this assumption that anybody who wasn’t a straight White man didn’t deserve to be there.”

 
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Kamala Harris attacks Trump over 'fear and hate' at first rally

Kamala Harris attacks Donald Trump in first campaign speech

US Vice-President Kamala Harris has gone on the offensive against Donald Trump in the first rally of her White House campaign, portraying November’s election as a choice between a former prosecutor and a convicted felon.

Speaking to a crowd of about 3,000 in the battleground state of Wisconsin, Ms Harris likened her Republican opponent to fraudsters she said she had prosecuted. Trump, meanwhile, assailed her record on the border, and posted on social media: “Lyin’ Kamala Harris destroys everything she touches!”
It comes a day after she secured the support of a majority of Democratic delegates, paving the way for her to become the party's nominee.

On Sunday afternoon, President Joe Biden announced he was withdrawing from the race and endorsed his vice-president amid mounting pressure from top Democrats and donors following his disastrous debate against Trump in late June.

The fledgling Harris campaign raised a staggering $100m plus (£77m) in the 36 hours after Mr Biden’s exit.
Adding to her momentum, a new national poll from Reuters and Ipsos shows her with a two-point lead over Trump, 44% to 42%.

Harris took the stage to sustained applause at a high school in Milwaukee
Taking the stage to applause at a high school in a suburb of Milwaukee on Tuesday, Ms Harris highlighted her experience as California's attorney general.

"I took on perpetrators of all kinds,” she said. “Predators who abused women. Fraudsters who ripped off consumers. Cheaters who broke the rules for their own gain.” "So hear me when I say I know Donald Trump's type," Ms Harris added. "In this campaign, I promise you, I will proudly put my record against his any day of the week."

In response, the crowd shouted "Kamala! Kamala!" Some observers noted that the audience's enthusiasm contrasted with that seen at Biden events this electoral cycle.

When her Republican opponent's name was mentioned, many attendees chanted "lock him up", echoing a similar refrain at Trump events when he was running against Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Source: BBC
 
RexRex said:
I agree, obv it's too early to tell but I still suspect Kamala is hard to get enthused about.

Btw I used to read realclearpolitics a lot for polls & opinion but don't have the time anymore. I recommend Mediate if you want quick bite-sized snapshots of current US politics, plenty of videoclips.
Click to expand...
I still prefer sites that give data and let you draw most of the conclusions. They do offer commentary but only as a choice. Most other sides just offer coloured commentary.

I suspect Kamala's narrow route to a win lies mainly in what she represents rather than what she actually is.

She now shows as a much younger alternative to the old looking Trump who'll be way past 80 by the time he finishes a theoretical second term. He's already past the US life expectancy and given what we know of his food habits, I think it's pretty likely that he won't finish the term even if he does start it. The democratic base could hang it's hat on her relative youth

She also a pretty good life story to sell - daughter of immigrants, tough on crime DA and Attorney general, married to an military veteran.

As long as the campaign focuses on her profile rather than her, she might have a chance. I'm guessing she'll dodge direct debates and continue to speak through the media and prepared public addresses. She's pretty good at that given her background as an attorney in court.

It's a Hail Mary but it's a hell of a better shot than the Democrats had with Biden or they'll have with some new leader with no current national profile. If Biden had stepped away earlier, they could've held a proper primary and let a new leader emerge from the ranks of the Governors and Senators and build his own thoroughly vetted national profile.
 
Harris said Biden 'showed what true leadership looks like' in Oval Office address

Kamala Harris just spoke before the convention of the American Federation of Teachers, which swiftly endorsed her after she entered the presidential race

The vice-president began her remarks by commenting on Joe Biden’s speech to the nation last night from the Oval Office, in which he said he was dropping his bid for a second term so that younger generations will have a chance to lead.

“Last night, our president addressed the nation, and he showed once again what true leadership looks like. He really did. His words were poignant,” Harris told the crowd in Houston.

She continued:

He thinks and talks about his work and our country, understanding what it means in terms of what we do now and how that will impact the future. He thinks about our history in the context of the importance of the work we do now. And over the past three-and-a-half years, and over his entire career, Joe has led with grace and strength and bold vision and deep compassion.

And as he said, in the next six months, he will continue to fight for the American people, and I know we are all deeply, deeply grateful for his continued service to our nation.

Source: The Guardian
 
Its her own Democratic voters that burned the US flag and raised slogans against both US and Israel.

Lefties participated in the burning of America during BLM protests too. Its funny to hear the words Patriotism and peaceful protests from Democrats.
 
Obamas endorse Kamala Harris for president

Barack Obama has endorsed Vice-President Kamala Harris to be the Democratic presidential nominee, ending days of speculation over whether he would support her.

Former President Obama and ex-First Lady Michelle Obama said in a joint statement that they believe Ms Harris has the "vision, the character, and the strength that this critical moment demands".

Mr Obama was reportedly among more than 100 prominent Democrats Ms Harris spoke to after President Joe Biden announced last Sunday he was dropping out of the race.

In a statement at the time, Mr Obama praised Mr Biden's exit, but stopped short of endorsing Ms Harris.

The US vice-president has already secured the support of a majority of Democratic delegates, setting her on course to become the official nominee at the party convention in August.

The Obamas said in Friday's statement that they could not be "more thrilled to endorse" Ms Harris. They vowed to do "everything we can" to elect her.

"We agree with President Biden," said the couple's statement, "choosing Kamala was one of the best decisions he’s made. She has the resume to prove it."

They cited her record as California’s attorney general, a US senator and then vice-president.

"But Kamala has more than a resume," the statement continued. "She has the vision, the character, and the strength that this critical moment demands.

"There is no doubt in our mind that Kamala Harris has exactly what it takes to win this election and deliver for the American people.

"At a time when the stakes have never been higher, she gives us all reason to hope."

The statement was accompanied by a video of Ms Harris taking a phone call from the Obamas in which they pledge their support.

"Oh my goodness," says the vice-president in the clip. "Michelle, Barack, this means so much to me."

Ms Harris has held a number of campaign events across the US in the days since Mr Biden withdrew from the race.

On Thursday, she addressed the American Federation of Teachers union in Houston.

While the event was billed as part of her vice-presidential duties, it had the air of a campaign rally, with loud applause and cheers from the audience.

Echoing language used in campaign events earlier in the week, Ms Harris took aim at what she termed "extremist" Republicans and "failed" policies.

“We want to ban assault weapons, and they want to ban books,” she said.

Meanwhile, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump continued to pivot to assail his new rival.

"Lyin' Kamala Harris is a radical left Marxist, and worse!" he said in a partially all-capital-letters post on his social media platform Truth Social.

Trump also refused to commit to a televised debate with Ms Harris until she is officially confirmed as the party's nominee.

He suggested Democrats were "still holding out for someone 'better'".

Ms Harris has also had "frank and constructive" talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and told him it was time for the Israel-Gaza war to end.

Israel launched a campaign in Gaza to destroy Hamas in response to the attack on southern Israel last October, during which about 1,200 people were killed and 251 others were taken hostage.

More than 39,000 people have been killed in Gaza since then, according to the territory’s Hamas-run health ministry.

Kamala Harris said she made clear her "serious concerns" about casualties in Gaza, telling Mr Netanyahu how Israel defended itself mattered.

Ms Harris also stressed the need for a path to a two-state solution.

The Israeli prime minister also met President Biden while on a trip to the White House, and will meet Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump on Friday.

BBC
 
BouncerGuy said:
Obamas endorse Kamala Harris for president

Barack Obama has endorsed Vice-President Kamala Harris to be the Democratic presidential nominee, ending days of speculation over whether he would support her.

Former President Obama and ex-First Lady Michelle Obama said in a joint statement that they believe Ms Harris has the "vision, the character, and the strength that this critical moment demands".

Mr Obama was reportedly among more than 100 prominent Democrats Ms Harris spoke to after President Joe Biden announced last Sunday he was dropping out of the race.

In a statement at the time, Mr Obama praised Mr Biden's exit, but stopped short of endorsing Ms Harris.

The US vice-president has already secured the support of a majority of Democratic delegates, setting her on course to become the official nominee at the party convention in August.

The Obamas said in Friday's statement that they could not be "more thrilled to endorse" Ms Harris. They vowed to do "everything we can" to elect her.

"We agree with President Biden," said the couple's statement, "choosing Kamala was one of the best decisions he’s made. She has the resume to prove it."

They cited her record as California’s attorney general, a US senator and then vice-president.

"But Kamala has more than a resume," the statement continued. "She has the vision, the character, and the strength that this critical moment demands.

"There is no doubt in our mind that Kamala Harris has exactly what it takes to win this election and deliver for the American people.

"At a time when the stakes have never been higher, she gives us all reason to hope."

The statement was accompanied by a video of Ms Harris taking a phone call from the Obamas in which they pledge their support.

"Oh my goodness," says the vice-president in the clip. "Michelle, Barack, this means so much to me."

Ms Harris has held a number of campaign events across the US in the days since Mr Biden withdrew from the race.

On Thursday, she addressed the American Federation of Teachers union in Houston.

While the event was billed as part of her vice-presidential duties, it had the air of a campaign rally, with loud applause and cheers from the audience.

Echoing language used in campaign events earlier in the week, Ms Harris took aim at what she termed "extremist" Republicans and "failed" policies.

“We want to ban assault weapons, and they want to ban books,” she said.

Meanwhile, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump continued to pivot to assail his new rival.

"Lyin' Kamala Harris is a radical left Marxist, and worse!" he said in a partially all-capital-letters post on his social media platform Truth Social.

Trump also refused to commit to a televised debate with Ms Harris until she is officially confirmed as the party's nominee.

He suggested Democrats were "still holding out for someone 'better'".

Ms Harris has also had "frank and constructive" talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and told him it was time for the Israel-Gaza war to end.

Israel launched a campaign in Gaza to destroy Hamas in response to the attack on southern Israel last October, during which about 1,200 people were killed and 251 others were taken hostage.

More than 39,000 people have been killed in Gaza since then, according to the territory’s Hamas-run health ministry.

Kamala Harris said she made clear her "serious concerns" about casualties in Gaza, telling Mr Netanyahu how Israel defended itself mattered.

Ms Harris also stressed the need for a path to a two-state solution.

The Israeli prime minister also met President Biden while on a trip to the White House, and will meet Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump on Friday.

BBC
Click to expand...
Well that's the last of the big 4 - Obamas, Pelosi, Schumer & Jeffries. We have a race folks.

Trump sees to be responding a bit sluggishly. Is his age showing - maybe his back is acting up? Where are the cheap nicknames? The wild accusations? The mudslinging?

Of course it could be temporary given all the publicity but she's getting some really interesting polls recently. Absolutely neck to neck with Trump in almost 5 polls released in the last couple of days.
 
As I said, this is getting really interesting. Some swing state polls came in...all conducted post the announcement. These 5 States will basically decide the race and it's very tight. She's pulled to within 2 in Georgia and Pennsylvania, 1 in Michigan and level in Wisconsin.
AD_4nXe_s4isxh7n3jWHOcdWioKxteBfuNN3BCnX9MJ-3K6TnnYUVfLSpjLmg7VaY1rI9NvVUUDdTQHwZyJDhgRdYhrOl0pUBwtBWtqUGHSigNXHH3Bl7jmNg9gS6Bm9oZ9NSnElofAIwMVf60RKMPd0wW8dyc-T

Trump needs to win at least 3 and preferably 4 out of the 5 to take the college. Basically, he was short 40 - Pennsylvania has 20, Georgia 16, Michigan 16, Arizona 11 and Wisconsin 10.
 

Major Shifts Beneath the Surface in a New Trump-Harris Poll​


Kamala Harris is doing better among young and Hispanic voters than President Biden did.Credit...Kenny Holston/The New York Times
After all the political tumult of the last month, Thursday’s latest New York Times/Siena College poll is full of findings unlike any we’ve seen this cycle, with one exception: who leads the presidential race.

The poll found Donald J. Trump ahead of Kamala Harris by one percentage point, 48 percent to 47 percent, among likely voters. Other than the name of the Democratic candidate, “Trump +1” is a result that could have been from any other Times/Siena poll before President Biden’s disastrous debate.

But on question after question, there are major shifts from previous Times-Siena polls, which were all taken before Vice President Harris essentially locked up her party’s nomination for president, before the Republican convention, and before the attempted assassination of Mr. Trump. Even the one-point Harris deficit represents a significant improvement for Democrats from Mr. Biden’s six-point deficit in our last Times/Siena poll.

As I have written, these events make it hard to know what to make of the results of recent polls, including this one. The survey is a useful marker of where the race stands now, but there’s no reason to be confident that this is where the race will stand once the dust settles.

While the overall result between Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump may look familiar, the poll is full of signs that there’s a lot of dust still in the political air.

Mr. Trump hits a high in popularity. Overall, 48 percent of registered voters say they have a favorable view of him, up from 42 percent in our last poll (taken after the debate but before the convention and assassination attempt). It’s his highest favorable number in a Times/Siena poll, which previously always found his favorable ratings between 39 percent and 45 percent.

Ms. Harris is surging. In fact, her ratings have increased even more than Mr. Trump’s. Overall, 46 percent of registered voters have a favorable view of her, up from 36 percent when we last asked about her in February. Only 49 percent have an unfavorable view, down from 54 percent in our last measure. As important, her favorable rating is higher than Mr. Biden’s. In fact, it’s higher than his standing in any Times/Siena poll since September 2022, which so happens to be the last time Mr. Biden led a Times/Siena national poll of registered voters.

The national political environment is a little brighter. The share of voters who say the country is on the “right track” is up to 27 percent — hardly a bright and smiley public, but still the highest since the midterm elections in 2022. Mr. Biden’s approval and favorable ratings are up as well. The ranks of the double haters have dwindled: With both Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump riding high, the number of voters who dislike both candidates has plunged to 8 percent, down from 20 percent in Times/Siena polls so far this year.

Donald Trump, with JD Vance, has reached a high in favorability in Times-Siena polling.Credit...Doug Mills/The New York Times
With all of these underlying changes in the attitudes about the candidates, there’s no reason to assume that this familiar Trump +1 result means that the race has simply returned to where it stood before the debate. For now, these developments have mostly canceled out, but whether that will still be true in a few weeks is much harder to say.

Source: The New York Times
 
‘Could we have imagined this moment would come?’: Kamala Harris and the rise of Indian American politicians

The vice-president’s ascent marks a historic moment. But the US must remain vigilant to the threat of the ‘model minority’ myth

“We are here! We are here! We have arrived!” cheered the lawyer and activist Valarie Kaur, to more than 4,000 south Asian participants mobilizing for Kamala Harris on a Zoom call on Wednesday night.

“I want to name this a historic moment – and as a moment for all of us to come together.” If elected, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee would become the first woman, first Black woman, and first south Asian to win the US presidency.

Kaur’s grandfather, a Sikh farmer from Punjab, India, sailed to the US by steamship in 1913. “He faced detention, threats of deportation, denial of citizenship. Could he imagine that we would be here, in this moment, 111 years later? Could we have imagined, in our lifetime, this moment would come?”

Kaur was one of a series of speakers that included the actor Mindy Kaling, the congresswoman Pramila Jayapal, the Philadelphia councilwoman Nina Ahmad, the actor Poorna Jagannathan and other south Asian female leaders who called on south Asian women to rally for Harris.

While views within the south Asian community are mixed – a few speakers, and many listeners on the call, voiced concerns over the Biden administration’s support for Israel’s war on Gaza – the possibility of electing Harris in an election where the future of American democracy is at stake has renewed hope for Democrats. In just 24 hours, the Harris campaign shattered fundraising records, raising $81m, and south Asian organizations have been quick to mobilize. Indian American Impact Fund, an organization that supports Indian Americans in political office, launched the website desipresident.com with the slogan “Kamala ke Saath” (which means “with Kamala” in Hindi). Ananya Kachru, co-chair of high school and college Democrats outreach for South Asians for America, reported seeing a “700% uptick in voter registration in under 72 hours” – with a majority of those being voters under 35.

The 2024 election brings with it another historic moment: Usha Vance, the wife of the Republican vice-presidential nominee, JD Vance, a woman of Indian heritage and a child of immigrants could become America’s second lady. The illumination of two women with Indian heritage – who represent opposing visions for America’s future – demands reckoning with an often overlooked and complex history about the ascendance of a community that makes up just over 1% of the US population.

This new political reality has put the spotlight on the US’s Indian American communities. People of Indian descent make up only 0.6% of America’s eligible voter population, according to AAPI Data, a non-profit that tracks data about Asian American, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander communities. Yet Indian Americans represent nearly double that proportion in Congress, with five US representatives – Jayapal, Ro Khanna, Raja Krishnamoorthi, Ami Bera and Shri Thanedar – who call themselves the Samosa caucus. (If the Virginia state senator Suhas Subramanyam wins his bid for the state’s 10th congressional district this fall, there will be six.)

About 40 Indian Americans occupy seats in state legislatures, two Indian Americans have served as governors, and a number of Indian Americans occupy positions on Capitol Hill and within the White House. The group’s recent political ascendance is underscored by economic success: Indian Americans are also one of the wealthiest and most highly educated immigrant groups in the country, with a median income of $120,000. All together, this phenomenon has brought a new focus on Indian Americans, in particular, with the New York Times hailing the ethnic group as “a political force”.

While Indians make up the second-largest immigrant group in America, according to Pew Research, they are also relatively recent arrivals. In 2000, the population was about 2 million; by 2019, it was 4.6 million. “It is a pretty remarkable story of a people who were denied citizenship until [1946], and facing very limited entry until 1965,” says Karthick Ramakrishnan, the founder of AAPI Data and a professor of public policy at the University of California, Riverside.

While the Indian American community’s growing presence in politics is, indeed, noteworthy, it is troubling to present the phenomenon without proper context: some writers and leaders have used it to claim systemic racial discrimination does not exist in the US.

There are many complex factors behind the rise of this immigrant group, but the most common – and harmful – narrative used to explain it is simply: Indian American success is innate. In the Wall Street Journal, the writer Tunku Varadarajan argued that Vance’s status “exemplifies the rise of an immigrant group that has prospered without quotas or affirmative action” and wrote that Indian American success more or less disproves “claims of ‘systemic racism’ and pervasive ‘white privilege’”.

In her 2019 memoir, With All Due Respect, the former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, who is the daughter of Indian immigrants, put it more bluntly, claiming of Indian Americans: “We’re just good at being Americans. And that says as much about America as it does about us.”

The story is told by both Republicans and Democrats alike. In a 2021 phone call with the Nasa engineer Swati Mohan, Joe Biden said: “It’s amazing. Indian – of descent – Americans are taking over the country: you, my vice-president, my speechwriter, Vinay … You guys are incredible … We bring the best out of every single solitary culture in the world here in the United States of America, and we give people an opportunity to let their dreams run forward.”

This story of Indian American exceptionalism – in which success and achievement are portrayed as inherently Indian traits that blossom in a meritocracy – is often deployed as a means to reinforce a fantasy of America as a post-racial society where the American dream is achievable for all. This myth “has such lasting power because it’s a feel-good story. It affirms some of the deepest values that Americans care about … [that] if you work hard, you will succeed, and America is the land of opportunity and is a nation of immigrants,” says Ellen Wu, history professor at Indiana University Bloomington and author of The Color of Success: Asian Americans and the Origins of the Model Minority. With two prominent Indian Americans in the election, “I imagine we will see quite a bit of that retelling as the election cycle continues,” she says.

But not all Indians in America are well-off: Indians represent the third-largest group of undocumented immigrants, and an estimated 9% of people of Indian origin in America lived in poverty as of 2014. What’s often excluded from this reductive narrative are the unique set of circumstances and privileges that allowed some Asian Americans – and many Indian Americans, specifically – to benefit in a way that few other immigrant groups have been able to in America.

To understand this rise – and why we should be wary of hollow celebrations of representation based on ethnic or racial background – one must understand the context of immigration history, especially as the political and economic power of Indian Americans grows.

Most American schools teach little to nothing about Asian American history. In the 1850s, laborers from southern China emigrated to the US and Canada to help build railroads and dig in mines during the Gold Rush, representing 20% of California’s labor force by 1870. White laborers began to view the Chinese as an economic threat, and after a rise in anti-Chinese sentiment, in 1882, America passed the Chinese Exclusion Act – the nation’s first race-based immigration ban. (The presence of south Asians in the US dates back to the 1700s, but began to grow in the late 1800s, leading to similar racial animus).

The US later effectively barred immigration from Asian countries under the Immigration Act of 1924. Immigration was allowed in the 1940s and 1950s, when Asian immigrants became eligible for naturalization – but was still extremely limited by quotas.

“Between the Gold Rush era of the mid-19th century to world war II, Asians in America had a very distinct position in what we might think of as the racial order,” says Wu. “American society and the government had decided that Asians were decidedly or definitively not white.” As non-white people, Asians were ineligible to become naturalized US citizens – they could not vote, could not marry white people, did not have access to certain jobs, and lived in segregated areas.

After the second world war, against the backdrop of the cold war, a subtle but important shift occurred in America’s racial categorization of Asian Americans. In this period, “it’s not so much that they are decidedly or definitively not white, but it’s more that they are regarded as decidedly or definitively not Black,” Wu says. The Black liberation movement of the civil rights era, along with shifting attitudes during the cold war, compelled American leaders to end the quota system and pass the 1965 Hart-Celler Immigration and Nationality Act. The law, which opened up US borders to Asia, Latin America, and other regions, favored highly skilled and educated workers with strong family ties, leading to a mass influx of Indians and other Asian groups. The “model minority myth” – a story that portrayed the rise of an Asian American middle class as a result of work ethnic, close-knit families, and innate intellect – took hold in the American psyche.

The myth – like all racial stereotypes – is ultimately harmful, as it positions the relative success of a few Asian Americans as a way to deny, and ultimately ignore, America’s structural inequalities and racism. The myth also obscures the complex and diverse experiences of a group that encompasses more than 20 million people and 24 countries of origin into a flat image, dismissing the reality that Asian Americans experience the widest wealth gap of any ethnic group. Embracing the myth makes it nearly impossible to address inequalities faced by Asian Americans, including a recent surge in racist violence, because it argues that Asian Americans do not struggle. And Asian Americans who invoke these myths are more likely to harbor anti-Black attitudes. The former Republican presidential nominee Vivek Ramaswamy (a family friend of the Vances), for example, has called affirmative action “a cancer on our national soul” and dismissed Juneteenth as “useless”.

The myth of the model minority also erases three major advantages that enable a majority of immigrants from India to prosper in American civic life: familiarity with a democratic voting system, proficiency in English, and resources in India. Immigrants coming from democratic countries are more likely to participate in American elections, says Ramakrishnan, and English – a legacy of British colonial rule – is taught in the middle- and upper-class communities that produce most of the immigrants who come to America. Speaking English makes it easier to consume American news and decreases the risk of language-based discrimination.

The third factor that has shaped Indian American success is privilege in India. According to The Other One Percent: Indians in America, the Indian American diaspora is the result, in large part, of an invisible but rigid stratification of caste and class, with those from the highest classes and castes in India – Brahmins being at the top – having access to the best schools and jobs, which prepare workers for white-collar jobs and positions in America. In America’s Black-white racial hierarchy, many writers and scholars assume that, due to skin color, Indian Americans are “closer to Black than white”, says the book’s co-author Sanjoy Chakravorty, professor of geography and urban studies and director of global studies at Temple University and visiting fellow at the Center for the Advanced Study of India at the University of Pennsylvania. But this categorization “ignores India’s own system of bias and prejudice, which has produced a hierarchy, social – caste and tribe – educational, and increasingly an income hierarchy”, he explains. “What you have, really, is the arrival of people who are used to wielding power.”

Harris’s mother, Shyamala Gopalan, exemplifies some of these privileges and the complexity of analysis: Gopalan came to America in 1958, at the age of 19, to pursue a master’s degree at the University of California, Berkeley – when only 12,000 Indian immigrants lived in the US. She grew up as a British colonial subject in India and experienced discrimination in America, becoming involved in civil rights activism and marrying Donald Harris, a Jamaican-born Berkeley graduate student. But she also clung to her Brahmin identity, telling the San Francisco Weekly in 2003: “In Indian society we go by birth. We are Brahmins; that is the top caste. Please do not confuse this with class, which is only about money.”

(Caste-based discrimination is beginning to receive more attention in America. In 2023, Seattle became the first US city to ban it, and some colleges are revising policy to outlaw caste discrimination. A similar proposal to explicitly ban caste-based discrimination in California failed.)

The prominence of Harris and Vance, who represent starkly different ideologies, is bringing these complex histories to the forefront, illustrating the limitations of representation discourse. While many Indian Americans may have seen themselves in Vance as she faced racist backlash at the RNC, on Wednesday’s Zoom call, the comedian Pooja Reddy – who, like Vance, identifies as south Indian and Telegu – articulated the need to look beyond shared ethnicity. “This is our moment to understand and realize that Usha Vance is proving that all skinfolk ain’t kinfolk,” she said. “And I want us to get through to and shake the people in our communities who may be swayed to vote for Trump because of the false sense of security that she’s bringing to his campaign out of south Asian women. I’ve seen that and it’s abhorrent.”

While Indian Americans vote overwhelmingly Democratic, it should not be a surprise that Vance has reportedly helped shape the political rise of her husband, a candidate who backs a national abortion ban. Or that Ramaswamy, who dismisses the “climate change agenda” as a “hoax”, can hold rightwing views. “I think we should be less surprised, especially now that there is a fair number of Indian Americans [in politics],” says Chakravorty. “Libertarianism is actually something that I think comes naturally to a good chunk of Indian Americans who have only known privilege and success their entire lives, and they think that they are special, that they’re gifted, and that it has nothing to do with the starting points and the advantages that they have. And to stretch that into the Republican party and to seek political power and influence within that identity, it seems like a natural step.”

Nor should it be a surprise that India’s rightwing Hindu nationalist prime minister, Narendra Modi, maintains strong support among Indian Americans (including with the Biden administration) and those who vote as progressives in the US. “In India they are dominant, and the right supports the dominance, and in the US they are not dominant, they are a minority, and they support the party that supports the minority,” Chakravorty explains. Forgetting these diverse and fraught histories allows rightwing ideologies to take hold and deepen. As the Hindu supremacy watchdog Savera warns: “Hindu supremacy and the US right wing have been converging for a long time, and Usha Vance is just the tip of the iceberg.”

For south Asian women who carry the weight of these oft-overlooked legacies, the 2024 election is especially complicated. Kaur acknowledged some of the conflicting feelings in her Wednesday evening comments while balancing the historic nature of a Harris presidency. “Now for some of us, it’s uncomplicated for us to be here. We are filled with excitement and presence,” Kaur said. “For others of us, it is complicated for us to be here. We have spent some time protesting the policies of this administration – and yet we are here.”

Ultimately, she said, “we know that the way to create a path to the future is through a Harris presidency, and will open up a window, a portal of possibility, for the rest of us to mobilize, to organize, to labor for the policies we need and the America that we dream … where all of us are welcome.”

A lesson in history can also offer some hope: for those who fear Harris is “too risky” to elect on account of her being a Black and south Asian woman, Ramakrishnan points to Dalip Singh Saund, who was born under British colonial rule in Punjab, India, and became America’s first Asian American member of Congress in 1957 against arguably greater odds than Harris faces today. Saund, who came to the US to study in a masters program at UC Berkeley in the 1920s, did not have the right to be a citizen or own land. He became a farmer and successfully fought to change laws that banned Indians from naturalizing. The law allowing citizenship was passed in 1946, and in 1956, Saund won his bid for Congress. “Of course, there is Barack Obama,” says Ramakrishnan. “But I think we can also look back to examples such as Saund, on the ability [of a person of color] to appeal to a larger set of Americans. To at least show that not only is it possible, but it’s been done before.”

SOURCE: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...dian-american-politicians-model-minority-myth
 

Kamala Harris switch scrambles Republicans as Trump resorts to insults​


Donald Trump capped a tough week in which his Democratic opponents turned the tables, replacing aging Joe Biden with Kamala Harris as their top choice for president, by resorting to insults and extremism on the campaign trail.

A week ago, Trump was riding high on the iconic moment when he rose bloodied and with a defiantly raised fist from an assassination attempt, pulling away in the polls. Biden, meanwhile, was struggling to recover from his dire late June debate against the Republican nominee and an unconvincing performance in the days since.

Now, with the former president suddenly facing a vibrant, younger rival in Harris, who hit the ground running after Biden quit his re-election campaign last Sunday and quickly endorsed her for the top of the ticket, Trump called her “a bum” and said he “couldn’t care less” if he mispronounced her name.

At a rally in Florida on Friday night organized by the far-right Christian advocacy group Turning Point Action, Trump not only went personal against the US vice-president, but once again appeared to threaten American democracy.

“Christians, get out and vote! Just this time – you won’t have to do it anymore. You know what? It’ll be fixed! It’ll be fine. You won’t have to vote anymore, my beautiful Christians,” he said at the event in West Palm Beach, not far from his Mar-a-Lago resort and residence.

Trump has been adopted by much of the US evangelical Christian right as a flawed champion, besmirched by losing in sexual misconduct and business fraud civil cases and convicted on criminal counts for election-related fraud in a case involving an adult film actor who alleged an extramarital sexual encounter with him. With other criminal cases ongoing, he is nevertheless the one-term president who tilted the US supreme court against abortion, gun control, government experts, voting rights and diversity efforts in higher education, delighting his white, ultra-conservative base.

At Friday’s rally, he also lit into Harris. She won the support not only of Biden but of the Obamas, the Clintons and the Democratic leaders in Congress last week, and if she is officially anointed at the party’s convention next month, she will be the first Black female nominee, the first south Asian nominee, and, if she beats Trump in November, America’s first female president.

On Friday, Trump called her “the most incompetent, unpopular and far-left vice-president in American history”. And in a seeming nod to how the campaign has been upended, he said: “She was a bum three weeks ago.”

He also pronounced her name Ka-MAH-la Harris, whereas the vice-president pronounces her name KAHM-a-la.

He insisted that he had been told there are numerous ways to say her name and added: “I said: ‘Don’t worry about it, doesn’t matter what I say, I couldn’t care less if I mispronounce it or not.’ Some people think I mispronounce it on purpose but actually I’ve heard it said about seven different ways.”

He has variously called Harris “crazy”, “nuts” and “dumb as a rock”. Some Republicans in Congress disparage her as a “diversity hire”, even though in her career before she became the first female US vice-president she had been elected as the district attorney of San Francisco, the attorney general of California and a US senator. Rightwing activists and trolls have smeared her online with racist, sexist and sexualized barbs, Reuters reported.

But opinion polls show that in just a few days, Harris, 59, has closed to within a point or two of Trump, whereas Biden had fallen around six points behind and was losing support in vital swing states.

Trump, 78, is now the oldest nominee to run for president. Earlier in the week, Trump also said Harris “doesn’t like Jewish people” after she did not attend Benjamin Netanyahu’s in-person visit and address to a joint session of Congress in Washington where the Israeli prime minister defended Israel’s war in Gaza. Harris spoke out strongly against the suffering of Palestinian civilians.

This despite her husband, second gentleman Doug Emhoff, being Jewish and being involved in an antisemitism taskforce for the White House.

In the last week, Trump also experienced another wobble in his trajectory. After introducing his choice of running mate at the Republican national convention as young gun and US senator for Ohio JD Vance to great fanfare, some within Republican circles began to lament Vance as a liability rather than a boon to the Trump ticket, following awkward performances on the campaign trail.

Then, Jennifer Aniston went viral criticizing Vance’s past comments disparaging the likes of Harris, who is a stepmother but has not given birth, as unhappy “childless cat ladies”..

And on Saturday, the New York Times published excerpts from communications between Vance and a peer from Yale Law School who said their close friendship broke down in 2021 when Vance supported a ban by Arkansas on gender-affirming care for transgender minors. It was the first such ban in the country – later struck down in court.

Former friend Sofia Nelson is transgender and told the publication that the public should know what Vance has said, including more about his pivot from being a Trump opponent to an acolyte. This included Vance writing “I hate the police” after white officers killed a Black 18-year-old, Michael Brown, in Ferguson, Missouri, in 2014, and calling Trump a demagogue, a disaster and “morally reprehensible” while saying the greater his appeal to the white electorate, the worse it would be for Black voters. The Vance campaign called Nelson’s decision to disclose private conversations unfortunate.

On Saturday night, Trump and Vance are due to appear at a rally in Minnesota, hoping to get their campaign off the back foot.

www.theguardian.com

Kamala Harris switch scrambles Republicans as Trump resorts to insults

A week ago, former president was riding high, but now he faces vibrant, younger rival who hit the ground running
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Kamala Harris shifts tone on Gaza, but advocates say US voters want more

Vice President Kamala Harris says she will “not be silent” in the face of Palestinian suffering, as Israel’s war in Gaza rages on.

But Palestinian rights advocates want to know exactly what that means for United States foreign policy.

The vice president — and the Democrats’ likely nominee for the presidency — emphasised the plight of Palestinians in Gaza after meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday. Nevertheless, she pledged ongoing support for Israel.

Activists say expressing sympathy for Palestinians without pursuing a meaningful shift away from the US’s policy of unconditional military and diplomatic support will not help Harris win back voters alienated by President Joe Biden’s approach to the war.

“Without an actual commitment to stop killing the children of Gaza, I don’t care about her empathy for them,” said Eman Abdelhadi, a sociologist at the University of Chicago. She stressed that the US bears “responsibility” for the atrocities committed against Palestinians.

“To be empathetic to someone that you’re shooting in the head is not exactly laudable. We don’t need empathy from these people. We need them to stop providing the weapons and the money that is actively killing the people that they’re supposedly empathising with.”

Moreover, while Harris’s comments have been characterised as a shift away from Biden’s rhetoric, critics point out the vice president did not articulate any new policy positions.


www.aljazeera.com

Kamala Harris shifts tone on Gaza, but advocates say US voters want more

Palestinian rights advocates demand action as the vice president and presidential candidate expresses sympathy for Gaza.
www.aljazeera.com www.aljazeera.com
 
Kamala Harris will announce VP pick in ‘next six, seven days’, Democrat says

Kamala Harris will announce her running mate for the US presidential election against Donald Trump and JD Vance “in the next six, seven days”, an influential Democratic campaign co-chair said.

“I would imagine we’ll know who her running mate is, and we’ll get ready for the convention,” Gretchen Whitmer, the governor of Michigan, told CBS on Monday, referring to Democrats’ national gathering in Chicago next month.

Whitmer also said she was not under consideration herself.

“I have communicated with everyone, including the people of Michigan, that I’m going to stay as governor until the end of my term at the end of 2026,” Whitmer said.

Harris is widely reported to have narrowed her field of possible picks to three – all white men from states expected to play key roles in the November election. On Sunday, a new poll said the navy pilot and astronaut turned Arizona senator Mark Kelly was seen most favourably by voters.

According to ABC News and Ipsos, 22% of respondents saw Kelly in a favourable light against 12% who did not, giving him a net favourability of +10.

The two other men widely reported to be in the final reckoning are the Minnesota governor, Tim Walz, and Josh Shapiro, governor of Pennsylvania. In the ABC/Ipsos poll, Walz scored -1 for favourability, Shapiro +4.

Strikingly, Kelly’s favourability rating was a striking 25 points better than that of Vance, the Ohio senator whose first steps in support of Trump have been beset by controversy and Democratic attacks, leading to reports of doubts among senior Republicans.

Under fire for misogynistic comments including disparaging leading Democrats as “childless cat ladies”, and widely shown to have said he despised Trump before changing his tune, Vance’s favourability rating in the ABC/Ipsos poll was -15, a poor score surpassed only by Trump himself, at -16.

Lest Kelly supporters get too confident, the ABC/Ipsos poll also noted that he and most other potential Democratic picks “remain unknown to large sections of the American public”. Among all possible Democratic nominees for vice-president, the transportation secretary, Pete Buttigieg (+4 favourability), and the governor of California, Gavin Newsom (-12), were the best-known to voters.

Harris was seen favourably by 43% of voters and unfavourably by 42%. Among possible picks who might help boost that rating, Kelly represents a border state, central to the fight over immigration, and is married to Gabby Giffords, a former congresswoman who survived a shooting and campaigns for gun control reform.

Shapiro governs a rust belt state that proved pivotal in 2016, when Trump won it, and in 2020, when it went for Joe Biden.

Walz’s state, Minnesota, has voted for the Democrat in every presidential election since 1976 but Trump has targeted it this year, trumpeting polling gains before Biden dropped out of the race.

Biden, 81, withdrew from his re-election campaign amid polling that showed most Americans thought him too old to be president. That means that, at 78, Trump is now the oldest candidate ever to run for the White House.

Whitmer told CBS she expected a “convention of happy warriors” in Chicago. Harris advisers are reportedly placing emphasis on potential running mates’ ability to take the fight to Vance, who they want to portray as too inexperienced to step up should Trump fail to serve a full term.

Now 39, Vance was a US marine, a bestselling author and a venture capitalist before winning a US Senate seat in 2022.

On Monday, Mitch Landrieu, a Harris campaign co-chair, called Vance “one of the most unprepared people … ever put up to hold the vice-presidency of the United States”.

Landrieu told CNN: “He’s never run anything. And he’s about to be one heartbeat away from the largest entity in the world, and the one that’s the most important.

“So it’s a fair question to ask: ‘How would we know whether you have the capability to run domestic and national security policy for the most powerful country in the world, which you may be called to do on a moment’s notice?’”

Kelly, 60, was elected to the Senate in 2020. Walz, 60 and a former teacher and national guard sergeant, was a US congressman for six terms from 2006 before being elected governor of Minnesota in 2018. Shapiro, 51, sat in the Pennsylvania state house before becoming state attorney general in 2017, then governor in 2023.

CNN quoted “a Harris adviser” as saying the running-mate selection process would be informed by Harris’s own experience.

Now 59, Harris was a former California attorney general and US senator when she was picked by Biden in 2020. Her four years as vice-president have generated reports of struggles but also effective displays on key campaign issues, particularly threats to abortion rights.

“She knows the challenges of this world in a way that you have to have somebody who has a deep amount of resilience,” the unnamed adviser told CNN.

A campaign spokesperson, James Singer, told the same network Harris would “select a vice-president who is qualified and ready to serve the American people, protect their freedoms, and fight for their future”.

All three men reportedly under closest consideration have chosen their words with care.

“This is not about me,” Kelly told reporters. “But always, always when I’ve had the chance to serve, I think that’s very important to do.”

Walz said: “Being mentioned is certainly an honour. I trust Vice-President Harris’s judgment … I would do what is in the best interests of the country.”

Shapiro said Harris would “make that decision when she is ready, and I have all the confidence in the world that she will make that decision, along with many others, in the best interests of the Amercian people”.

THE GUARDIAN
 

Giant Zoom calls fuel record fundraising behind Harris campaign​


It began with a group of black women on a Zoom call who hit a million-dollar fundraising target in about three hours. A series of similar Zooms followed, targeting particular groups for the Kamala Harris presidential campaign.

The latest on Monday night was a three-hour call titled "White Dudes for Harris", which organisers say attracted 180,000 people and raised more than $3.7m in donations.

Actors Jeff Bridges, Mark Ruffalo and Mark Hamill were among those present.

The Harris campaign is now barely a week old. Still, it is harnessing a grassroots energy that did not exist for President Joe Biden, using modern video conferencing to reach motivated voters and fundraise virtually.

In the past week - roughly 100 days from Election Day - her US presidential campaign has raised $200m (£155m) and signed up more than 170,000 new volunteers.

And unlike big donors who helped persuade Mr Biden to step aside and end his run just days ago, it is hundreds of thousands of ordinary Democrats now generating "Kamalamentum".

The internet is enthralled with Harris. Will that get her more votes? Three ways Trump is trying to end the Harris honeymoonC all attendance began in the tens of thousands - already a feat given Zoom meetings are usually restricted to 1,000 participants. But since then, the campaign's biggest has been 160,000 people. Zoom did not respond to request for comment for this story.

Republicans have criticised some of the identity-based virtual gatherings as "racist" and "desperate" pandering to liberal supporters.
But while some may cringe at such overt use of identity to campaign, the impact of the virtual events is being taken seriously.

The Zoom sessions are "an informal thing where [Harris] can present some scripted lines and get people fired up," said Republican consultant and pollster Whit Ayres. "It's a signal that there is enormous enthusiasm out there for her candidacy." And, he said, it would be a mistake for Republicans to criticise the identity-based Zoom sessions.

“It backfires when you start attacking people because of their identity. Because everyone else who shares their identity feels like you're attacking them.''

Meanwhile, Ms Harris's opponent Donald Trump and his party have said Democrats are more energised by Mr Biden's surprise departure from the race, rather than by Ms Harris herself.

On 21 July, in a matter of hours after the US president announced he was dropping out and endorsing his deputy, the group of black female political organisers convened their Zoom call. The four-hour conversation attracted 44,000 participants and raised $1.6m for Ms Harris. The original goal was $1m in 100 days.

"I felt like when Obama got the nomination all over again. I actually felt more excited, to be honest," Black Voters Matter co-founder LaTosha Brown, who joined the call, told The 19th News.

"My first response was, 'OK, he's out; now we’ve got to fight for this sister'." Ms Harris, 59, would be the first black woman - and first South Asian woman - to secure a major American party's nomination for president.

Gatherings of South Asian women have followed, celebrating their "auntie" and Latinas have hailed a "hermana". The official nomination is expected at the Democratic National Convention in August.

Source: BBC
 
Kamala Harris to visit Philadelphia for campaign rally with running mate Tuesday

Vice President Kamala Harris will visit Philadelphia on Tuesday with her running mate for a campaign event, a spokesperson for the campaign said.

Harris has not announced her running mate yet, but the decision is expected by Monday, CBS News has learned.

Harris will be interviewing potential vice presidential candidates this week. While about 10 hopefuls remain, a top tier of five people has emerged, CBS News reports. Those people are Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.

Shapiro has been campaigning for Harris in Pennsylvania, including a rally in Ambler with Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer on Monday.

On Tuesday, he declined to answer directly when asked if he wants the job.

"I've said this before, I'll say it again: The vice president has a very deeply personal decision to make right now: who she wants to run with, who she wants to govern with, and who can be by her side when she has to make the toughest decisions for the American people," Shapiro said. "I trust that she will make that decision on her own terms when she is ready."

Whitmer and North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper said this week they are not being considered for the running mate role.

SOURCE: https://www.cbsnews.com/philadelphi...arris-philadelphia-pennsylvania-running-mate/
 
‘It was the same old show’: Kamala Harris responds to Trump’s attacks on her racial identity

Vice-president brushes off remarks by Donald Trump in which he said Harris ‘happened to turn Black’ a number of years ago

Kamala Harris has shrugged off Donald Trump’s questioning of her racial identity, saying that it was “the same old show” and that “America deserves better”, at a rally in Texas.

On Wednesday, in an appearance at the National Association of Black Journalists (NABJ), Trump antagonised senior Black journalists and questioned Harris’s race, saying, “She was always of Indian heritage, and she was only promoting Indian heritage. I didn’t know she was Black until a number of years ago, when she happened to turn Black.”

His interview, which was meant to last an hour, according to Axios, was cut short after 34 minutes.

In Houston, Harris appeared unruffled and kept her remarks on Trump’s comments brief.

“This afternoon,” she said, pausing for boos from the crowd. “Donald Trump spoke at the annual meeting of the National Association of Black Journalists.”

“And it was the same old show: the divisiveness and the disrespect. And let me just say, the American people deserve better. The American people deserve a leader who tells the truth. A leader who does not respond with hostility and anger when confronted with the facts. We deserve a leader who understands that our differences do not divide us – they are an essential source of our strength.”

The presumptive Democratic presidential nominee was speaking at the Sigma Gamma Rho’s 60th International Biennial Boulé, the Black sorority’s gathering of its entire membership in Houston, Texas. Harris said she was there “as a proud member of the Divine Nine” – a group of the most historically powerful Black fraternities and sororities in the US. Harris is an alumna of the Alpha Kappa Alpha sorority.

The Harris campaign said in a statement: “The Donald Trump America saw at NABJ is the one Black voters have known for years.”

On Wednesday evening, Trump spoke at a rally in Pennsylvania, his first in the state since the assassination attempt against him last month.

Trump said of Harris, “Don’t forget. Four weeks ago she was considered, like, the worst,” and that she had had a “personality makeover … All of a sudden she’s considered the new Margaret Thatcher”.

As supporters waited for Trump at the rally, which started an hour late, giant screens displayed a 2016 Business Insider headline referring to Harris as the first “Indian-American US senator”.

On Wednesday evening in Maine, Harris’s husband, second gentleman Doug Emhoff – who was himself subjected to attacks from Trump this week – said Trump’s remarks in Chicago reflected “a worse version of an already horrible person”, the Washington Post reported. “He should never be near the White House again.”

“The insults, the BS – it’s horrible, it’s terrible, it shows a lack of character,” Emhoff said.

White House Press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre was speaking to journalists as Trump made his remarks on the NABJ panel. Asked about the comments, which a journalist read out to her, she at first said she would be “super careful”, then changed her mind. “Wait. No, no, no,” she said.

“As a person of colour, as a Black woman who is in this position,” she said, referring to her role, “What he just said, what you just read out to me is repulsive. It’s insulting.”

Harris was the only person qualified to say what her identity was, she continued.

“And I think it’s insulting for anybody – it doesn’t matter if it’s a former leader, a former president – it is insulting.”

THE GUARDIAN
 
Kamala Harris formally chosen as Democratic nominee

US Vice-President Kamala Harris has passed the threshold to clinch the Democratic presidential nomination in a vote of party delegates.

She is due to speak this lunchtime as the virtual roll call continues ahead of the Democratic National Convention (DNC) in Chicago this month.

Ms Harris is the first black woman and first South Asian woman to become the White House standard-bearer for a major US political party.

If she defeats Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, in November she would be America's first female president.



www.bbc.com

Kamala Harris formally chosen as Democratic nominee

The US vice-president becomes the first black woman to be nominated by a major political party.
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com
 
Crunch time in ‘veepstakes’ as Kamala Harris prepares to choose running mate

Kamala Harris faces one of the biggest decisions of her political life over the weekend, as she enters the crucial last stages of picking a running mate who can help her win the White House and defeat the looming authoritarian threat of Donald Trump.

Just two weeks after being suddenly thrust into the political spotlight and on to the top of the Democratic ticket after Joe Biden decided to step aside amid concerns over his age, Harris’s campaign has triggered a burst of enthusiasm among Democrats. Polls show her recovering much of the ground on Trump that Biden had lost.

But her choice of a vice-presidential candidate presents a thorny problem she must solve to keep her momentum and satisfy as much of the often fractious Democratic base as possible.

Harris’s choice will come down to “who can have the hard conversations”, a former Harris aide turned US senator said as the “veepstakes” neared their conclusion.

“At the end of the day, it’s going to come down to who can she have a relationship with, who can have the hard conversations with her,” Laphonza Butler, like Harris from California, told the New York Times.

“This is somebody she’s going to have to see on a fairly regular basis for the next four years [if elected]. And you got to do more than just tolerate them. There has to be some genuine like and care and a good vibe.”

Butler advised Harris in 2020, when she ran for the Democratic presidential nomination. That campaign ended swiftly but Harris, then a senator, was picked for vice-president by Joe Biden.

It is a notoriously thankless job, memorably deemed by John Nance Garner, who served under Franklin D Roosevelt, “not worth a bucket of warm ****”.

Harris’s time in the role has not been smooth but Biden’s historic July decision to step aside for a younger candidate transformed her fortunes in an instant. Heralding huge fundraising and surging voter enthusiasm, Harris is closing the gap on Trump in polling, nationally and in battleground states. In some recent national polls she has even opened up a narrow lead.

In ordinary campaign years, vice-presidential vetting and selection takes months, from the end of the competitive primary process in spring to the late-summer turn towards election day. It is a notoriously intense process, aides combing through the personal, public and financial lives of possible candidates, hunting for any whiff of scandal.

Now, in a campaign operating at political warp speed and with fewer than 100 days to go till polls open, Harris is set to complete her search in two weeks or less.

Her campaign has refused comment but interviews and records requests supervised by the former US attorney general Eric Holder were reportedly complete by Thursday.

The contenders to be named before a joint rally in Philadelphia on Tuesday were widely reported to include four governors – Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, Andy Beshear of Kentucky, Tim Walz of Minnesota and JB Pritzker of Illinois – one senator, Mark Kelly of Arizona; and one member of Biden’s cabinet, Pete Buttigieg, the transportation secretary.

All are white men, reflecting the belief that though Americans may be ready to vote for a first woman (and second non-white) president, many would be less keen to back a ticket featuring two women or two people of colour.

Those on Harris’s shortlist have said little. Some cleared their schedules for the weekend. Citing anonymous sources familiar with Harris’s schedule, the Times said she had “blocked off several hours … to meet with the men being considered”.

Brian Brokaw, who managed Harris’s campaigns for California attorney general, told the paper she would consider “the best traits and life experiences and job experiences to fill that position”.

Three possible picks were widely agreed to have moved to the fore.

Kelly is a former navy combat pilot and astronaut who was elected to the Senate in 2020 in Arizona, a battleground state, and is married to Gabrielle Giffords, a former congresswoman who survived a shooting and now campaigns for gun control.

Walz, a former teacher and national guard sergeant, is a popular progressive governor who has led the charge in calling Trump and his own running mate, the Ohio senator JD Vance, too “weird” and extreme to rule.

Shapiro governs a battleground state and enjoys high approval ratings from Republicans as well as Democrats. Like Harris, he is a former state attorney general. Unlike Harris, he is the subject of attacks from some progressives over his positions on Israel, Gaza and pro-Palestinian college protests.

On Friday afternoon, speculation ran rampant on social media that Harris had selected Shapiro after Philadelphia’s mayor, Cherelle Parker, appeared to share a video that seemed to suggest just that. Local reporters disproved the speculation shortly after.

Age continues to play a central election role. Biden withdrew because at 81 many deemed him too old. At 78, Trump is vulnerable to the same charge.

Harris is 59. Kelly and Walz are 60. Shapiro is 51, 27 years younger than Trump and 12 years older than Vance.

Trump’s running mate has been targeted for his extreme views on women and families but also for his inexperience, as a senator since just last year.

Taking his own shot at Shapiro, Vance recently said: “He talks … like if I tried to do a really bad impression of Barack Obama.”

Among Democrats – and satirists – that might be seen as no bad thing.

“It’s not just me, right?” Ronny Chieng, a Daily Show host, said over footage of Shapiro stumping for Harris, in cadences not dissimilar to those of the 44th president. “We all hear that? I was almost expecting him to be like, ‘And that’s why you should vote for me, Josh Hussein Shapiro.”

Whoever Harris chooses, he will be expected to return fire against Vance, potentially on the debate stage, though no contest has been set.

According to Brokaw, Harris “wants to be briefed on every possible scenario around every issue that she’s confronted with” but “moves fast once a decision is made”.

SOURCE: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/aug/03/kamala-harris-choose-vp-speculation
 

Hoping to avoid Clinton’s 2016 mistakes, Harris courts three ‘rust belt’ states​


Of all the lessons Kamala Harris’s campaign will have learned from Hillary Clinton’s botched run for president eight years ago, among the most important is that it’s better to talk about jobs than guns in the three rust belt states that hold the key to the White House.

The peculiarities of the US’s electoral college will almost certainly see November’s presidential election decided by voters in just seven states. Four – Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia – lie in the southern sun belt.

But it is the three to the north – the rust belt states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – that Democratic strategists are focused on. They are, in many ways, the real battleground within the battleground.

Shortly before Joe Biden dropped out the presidential race two weeks ago, his campaign team wrote a memo laying out victory in the rust belt swing states as the “clearest pathway” to defeating Donald Trump.

If Harris, the presumed Democratic presidential candidate, can win the “blue wall” alongside the states that can be relied on to support her then that should deliver the 270 electoral college votes required to take the White House whatever the outcome in the sun belt. But while some of the early signs are good for Harris, the rust belt can be tricky electoral ground, as Clinton found.

Dan Kannien, the director of Harris campaign in the battleground states, claimed on Monday that they are not focusing on one region over another.

“We already have 600 staff on the ground in the blue wall and we’re adding another 150 to that region in the first two weeks of August,” he said.

“The vice-president is strong in both the blue wall and in the sun belt and we are running hard in both.”

But it’s clear that both campaigns see the rust belt as decisive.

Trump’s choice of JD Vance, the Ohio senator and author of Hillbilly Elegy, a memoir about the struggles of the white working class, as his running mate was a move to win over a key constituency, although Vance’s failure to connect with audiences at recent rallies may be causing the former president some regret.

Harris is expected to reveal her vice-presidential running mate before a rally in Pennsylvania on Tuesday. The location has fuelled speculation that it will be that state’s governor, Josh Shapiro, although Harris’s aides have cautioned against reading too much into the connection.

Two other state governors, Tim Walz of Minnesota and Andy Beshear of Kentucky, are also reported to be serious contenders for the post. Either would probably play well in key rust belt constituencies. But the appeal of Shapiro lies in his strong approval ratings even among some Republicans and his defeat of a Trumpist rightwinger, Doug Mastriano, by a wide margin in the governor’s race two years ago.

Harris has also made Michigan’s governor, Gretchen Whitmer, a campaign co-chair after she ruled herself out of the vice-presidential contest. Whitmer will be a valuable asset in keeping the campaign focused on the issues that matter to midwestern voters after she defeated a Trump-backed candidate by 11 points in 2022 while Democrats took control of the Michigan state legislature for the first time in 45 years.

All of this is a tacit acknowledgment of how badly wrong Clinton’s campaign got it in 2016. She was the first Democratic presidential candidate since the late 1980s to lose the three blue wall seats. Her defeat can in part be attributed to a mix of hostility to elitism in general and the Clintons in particular, a perception compounded by controversies surrounding her speeches to Wall Street firms and other wealthy groups.

Her campaign focused on urban voters and too often neglected rural and working-class whites who felt left behind by globalisation and free trade policies that saw jobs exported. Union officials complained that Clinton’s team failed to listen to advice to talk more about protecting jobs from unfair competition by China and less about gun control.

Trump, on the other hand, tapped into rust belt grievances by promising to renegotiate trade deals, bring back manufacturing jobs and “drain the swamp” of Washington politics.

On election day, voter turnout among key demographics in the rust belt, including Black voters, was lower than expected for Clinton in contrast to real enthusiasm for Trump.

Four years later, Trump’s vote went up substantially in all three states but he lost them because voters who stayed away when Clinton was on the ticket came out for Biden. But as Biden’s disastrous debate performance in June shifted the focus on to his health and fitness for office, there was a real risk that enough voters would stay away again to deliver Trump back into the White House.

Harris has been the presumptive nominee for less than two weeks but has already gained ground against Trump in all but one of the seven swing states. One poll shows her doing better than Biden in the rust belt and as neck and neck with Trump in the three key states. Another poll puts Harris 11 points ahead in Michigan and two in Wisconsin although she trails Trump by four points in Pennsylvania.

Harris is also doing as well as Biden, if not better, among older voters and white men without a college degree, two key demographics in the rust belt states who could decide the election.

It remains to be seen how enduring the shift is once the Republicans start blasting out negative advertising accusing Harris of responsibility for the crisis on the Mexican border after Biden appointed her to look into the root causes of the flood of migrants from Central America, a key issue for many voters even in Wisconsin, 1,500 miles from the frontier.

But for now, Harris has injected new life into the campaign where it matters. The shift from a shuffling, hesitant Biden to a vigorous Harris has re-energised Democratic campaign workers who were increasingly demoralised about the prospects of defeating Trump.

The first Black, female vice-president looks more likely than Biden to draw Black voters to the polls, a key to winning Michigan in particular but also of significance in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. She is also expected to prove a more effective advocate for abortion rights than Biden, a major political issue after the supreme court struck down Roe v Wade.

Reproductive rights is the most important political issue for 15% of voters in Wisconsin, where the issue decided an election to the state supreme court last year in favour of a judge committed to upholding abortion rights. Those voters alone could decide who wins a state that Biden took by fewer than 21,000 votes, just 0.6% of the ballot, in 2020.

The Harris campaign is already blitzing the blue wall states with messaging emphasising Trump and Vance’s support for a national abortion ban.

Harris could also prove an additional advantage in Michigan, where Biden’s support for Israel’s war in Gaza did him damage with the state’s significant number of Arab and Muslim voters. More than 100,000 people voted uncommitted in the state’s Democratic primary in February in a protest against the man widely derided as “Genocide Joe”.

Biden won Michigan in 2020 by only 154,000 votes.

Harris’s record on the Gaza war is less contentious. She has spoken in support of Israel but has been more open than Biden in her criticism of its military strategy in Gaza and condemned the deaths of “too many innocent Palestinians”.

Harris also snubbed Benjamin Netanyahu’s speech to Congress last month, although she did hold a meeting with him and Biden. Afterwards Harris said she told the Israeli prime minister of her “serious concern about the scale of human suffering in Gaza”.

“What has happened in Gaza over the past nine months is devastating – the images of dead children and desperate, hungry people fleeing for safety, sometimes displaced for the second, third or fourth time. We cannot look away in the face of these tragedies. We cannot allow ourselves to become numb to the suffering. And I will not be silent,” she said.

Trump responded by accusing Harris of “running away from Israel”, but her statements will do her no harm among younger voters who have become alienated from the Democratic party over Biden’s position on the war.

www.theguardian.com

Hoping to avoid Clinton’s 2016 mistakes, Harris courts three ‘rust belt’ states

‘Blue wall’ states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin could decide the outcome of November’s election
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
 
Kamala Harris interviewing top vice-presidential contenders

Vice-President Kamala Harris is interviewing potential contenders to be her running mate on Sunday, ahead of a battleground tour next week.

Among those travelling to Washington, DC, to meet Ms Harris are Governor Josh Shapiro, Senator Mark Kelly and Governor Tim Walz.

The choices for the Democratic vice-president has been narrowed to a group of five, according to CBS, the BBC's US partner.

A decision is required before the Democratic National Convention, which starts on 19 August in Chicago.

It is unclear whether other potential candidates, including Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear or Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, were scheduled to meet with Ms Harris.

Harris officially became the Democratic presidential nominee on Friday in a vote of party delegates.

Once Ms Harris's running mate is announced, the two are expected to tour the battleground states.

Mr Shapiro has seen high approval ratings since he was elected in 2022 and could help Ms Harris capture Pennsylvania - a must-win state in the race for the White House.

Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, a former Navy pilot and Nasa astronaut, has become a leading voices on gun safety and his strong border stance and occasional criticisms of the Biden administration could help appeal to independent and conservative voters.

Mr Walz, who served 12 years in Congress before becoming governor of Minnesota in 2019, gained national attention for his strategy calling Donald Trump and JD Vance "weird".

On Friday President Joe Biden said he had spoken to Ms Harris about her search for a running mate. Asked what qualities she should look for in a vice-presidential candidate, he said: “I’ll let her work that out."

Potential partners to join Ms Harris on the Democratic ticket for November's election face an exhaustive vetting process, having to answer up to 200 questions before being seriously considered.


www.bbc.com

Kamala Harris interviewing top vice-presidential contenders

The vice-president is meeting contenders before making her VP pick public and taking a tour of battleground states.
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com
 
RexRex said:
I agree, obv it's too early to tell but I still suspect Kamala is hard to get enthused about.

Btw I used to read realclearpolitics a lot for polls & opinion but don't have the time anymore. I recommend Mediate if you want quick bite-sized snapshots of current US politics, plenty of videoclips.
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Big milestone today. Harris has pulled ahead in 538's national polling average. The others like RCP, Economist and WaPo still show Trump leading or tied. I like the 538 a shade better since it weighs the likely voter polls higher than registered voter polls and also gives more weight to polls that don't just poll head to head but show the full slate.

Also Wisconsin's flipped and Georgia's a dead heat. Even Pennsylvania's trending thin. It's going be a super super tight election.

The Dems have played this very well so far. Trump's really looking old in comparison now. Vance is just looking weird. Let's see if they can keep the momentum up with the Veep choice. I think they'd prefer to skip the debate to be honest. Trump's playing right into their hands by making absurd demands to debate.
 
Red-Indian said:
Big milestone today. Harris has pulled ahead in 538's national polling average. The others like RCP, Economist and WaPo still show Trump leading or tied. I like the 538 a shade better since it weighs the likely voter polls higher than registered voter polls and also gives more weight to polls that don't just poll head to head but show the full slate.

Also Wisconsin's flipped and Georgia's a dead heat. Even Pennsylvania's trending thin. It's going be a super super tight election.

The Dems have played this very well so far. Trump's really looking old in comparison now. Vance is just looking weird. Let's see if they can keep the momentum up with the Veep choice. I think they'd prefer to skip the debate to be honest. Trump's playing right into their hands by making absurd demands to debate.
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It'd be interesting. I think Democrats are doing the right thing by not allowing Kamala to go off script. I am willing to bet my bottom dollar, she is Sarah Palin on the left, the moment she goes off script.

I think Trump's doing well, I also think Kamala is going through her honeymoon phase. She is inherently unlikable(unfair on her) but in 2020 primary she won a grand total of 0 delegates.

I personally think Democrats would have been better off if they had a candidate not from Biden administration. Inflation and Border crisis are going to stick to Kamala.
 
Kamala Harris vice president choice narrows to Walz, Shapiro, sources say

Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris has narrowed her search for a vice presidential running mate to two finalists, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, three sources with knowledge of the matter said on Monday.

Harris, the U.S. vice president, is expected to announce her selection by Tuesday, ahead of her first scheduled public appearance with her running mate that evening at Temple University in Philadelphia.

It was unclear if a final decision has been made, the sources said. The rally will kick off a five-day, seven-city tour of battleground states likely to decide the Nov. 5 election.

The choice of a running mate is one of the most consequential decisions of Harris' political career, as she hastily pulls together a campaign to challenge Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump and U.S. Senator JD Vance, his vice presidential pick, in the Nov. 5 election. Vance will also make a campaign stop in South Philadelphia on Tuesday.


 
Based on what I have seen, Kamala seems very amateurish. Definitely not ready for presidency.

I think it would be a big Trump win (P.S., I am not a Trump supporter).
 
arunp said:
It'd be interesting. I think Democrats are doing the right thing by not allowing Kamala to go off script. I am willing to bet my bottom dollar, she is Sarah Palin on the left, the moment she goes off script.

I think Trump's doing well, I also think Kamala is going through her honeymoon phase. She is inherently unlikable(unfair on her) but in 2020 primary she won a grand total of 0 delegates.

I personally think Democrats would have been better off if they had a candidate not from Biden administration. Inflation and Border crisis are going to stick to Kamala.
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It may very well be that a different candidate would've been the Dems best bet but why argue an impossibility? There was no logical way for anyone else to stand or be put forward. Circumstances led them to this and the Dems are making the best of it. Also, it's unfair to class her with Palin whose only qualification was as a beauty queen. Kamala is highly educated and was attorney general of California. She just has no clear convictions and is basically a career politician. I class her with the likes of Romney.

It's now a 100% clear than Kamala's pulled ahead of Trump in the National vote. Every single poll in the last few days shows her ahead by various margins.

If this is her honeymoon phase, she's certainly milking it and she's got some more to milk. Her VP announcement will give her another nice publicity boost. I can see Georgia flipping within the next day or two and Pennsylvania's on a knife's edge.

Trump will have to come up with something to stop the momentum. He should stop faffing around and immediately agree to debate her any time any place. It's a risk. He'll look very old and decrepit next to her on TV but his hectoring style should put her off balance.
 
Kamala Harris officially declared Democratic Party candidate

Kamala Harris has officially been declared the Democratic candidate for the 2024 US election.

No challengers presented themselves ahead of the 27 July deadline, eliminating the possibility of an open Democratic Party convention in Chicago in August.

Ms Harris appeared to get the final seal of approval when the Obamas offered her their endorsement last month.

In a phone call recorded for social media, President Barack Obama told her: "We called to say, Michelle and I couldn't be prouder to endorse you and do everything we can to get you through this election and into the Oval Office."

The former president joined the Clintons, former House speaker Nancy Pelosi, actor George Clooney, and singers Cardi B, Ariana Grande, and Charli XCX in supporting Ms Harris to run against Donald Trump.

Donations to the Democrats have also soared since President Joe Biden said he would not seek re-election.

Almost immediately $50m (£38.7m) of support poured in, with labour unions and advocacy groups also getting behind Ms Harris.

SOURCE:https://news.sky.com/story/kamala-harris-officially-declared-democratic-party-candidate-13186256
 
The ex-football coach and teacher - now Harris's VP pick

With one viral line on cable TV - "these guys are just weird" - Tim Walz vaulted into contention for the job of Kamala Harris's running mate.

The 60-year-old brings with him a folksy, plain-spoken and sharp-tongued approach to taking on the Republican opposition.

He also comes with a compelling resume - a public school teacher, football coach and National Guardsman before he entered politics.

His political experience, representing a Republican-leaning district in Congress and then later passing left-wing policies as Minnesota's governor, could have broad appeal at a time when American politics is so polarised.

Teacher, football coach, Congressman

A native of rural Nebraska, Mr Walz farmed and hunted in his summertimes and enlisted in the Army National Guard at 17. He would serve in the volunteer force for 24 years.

His father, a public school administrator, encouraged him to join the military before he died from lung cancer when Mr Walz was 19.

The Minnesota governor has spoken of how Social Security survivor benefits sustained his mother, and how the GI Bill paid for his college education.

Armed with teaching degrees, Mr Walz took on a one-year teaching post in China around the time of the Tiananmen Square massacre.

He later honeymooned in the country with wife Gwen Whipple and also organised summer educational trips to China for US students.

After returning home to Nebraska, Mr Walz became a teacher and American football coach until his wife - another teacher at the school - drew him back to her native Minnesota. They now have two children.


www.bbc.com

Who is Tim Walz, Kamala Harris' pick for vice president?

The Minnesota governor is a former public school teacher, National Guardsman and member of Congress.
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com
 
This is going to be a super tight election. 3 or 4 states with a few thousand votes will decide the election. Anyone's game at this point. No swing voters here. It's ensuring your base turns out in droves here to vote.
 
Harris and Walz hold first rally together as new Democratic ticket

Tim Walz touted his rural roots and said Donald Trump would take the US "backwards" as he appeared for the first time as Kamala Harris’s running mate at a raucous Democratic Party rally.

At the event in Philadelphia on Tuesday night, the party’s new nominee for vice-president said their Republican rivals in November's election were "weird as hell".

The Minnesota governor spoke in front of thousands of supporters just hours after he was announced as Ms Harris’s pick for the role.

The Trump campaign, meanwhile, was quick to attack Mr Walz as a "dangerously liberal extremist".

The 60-year-old is billed as someone who could win back rural and working-class voters who have gravitated to Donald Trump in crucial midwestern states.

At the rally in the key swing state of Pennsylvania, Ms Harris, currently the US vice-president, said she and Mr Walz were the "underdogs" in what is expected to be a close election but had the momentum.

She introduced her running mate as “a fighter for the middle class, a patriot”.

Mr Walz then recounted his small-town roots in Nebraska and his career as a national guardsman and teacher, before attempting to draw a contrast with Trump.

"He doesn’t know the first thing about service - because he's too busy serving himself," said the former army sergeant and football coach.

He got some of the loudest cheers of the night when he took aim at the former president's criminal record, with chants of “lock him up” from those in the arena.

He also sparked applause when he invoked a viral attack line that caught the eye of the Harris campaign as she considered who would be her running mate.

"These guys are creepy and, yes, just weird as hell," Mr Walz said of their Republican challengers.

The governor also said he "can't wait to debate" Republican vice-presidential nominee JD Vance, "that is, if he's willing to get off the couch and show up".

The pair mostly pitched themselves as defenders of individual freedoms, including on abortion rights and safety from gun violence.

Mr Walz showed the plain-spoken, folksy style that has won praise from Democrats, as he took a jab at Republicans on the issue of abortion access.

“Mind your own damn business!" he said, drawing an ovation from the crowd of more than 10,000 at Temple University.

Ms Harris and Mr Walz have just launched a five-day tour of key battleground states.

They will also speak at the Democratic National Convention, which runs from 19 to 22 August in Chicago.

As the current two-term governor of Minnesota, Mr Walz has overseen one of the most productive legislative periods in state history, implementing a sweeping progressive agenda.

Democrats have used control of the state legislature to guarantee abortion rights, pass gun control measures and institute paid family leave.

Republicans have criticised Mr Walz for Minnesota's mask mandate and a shutdown of businesses and schools during the Covid-19 pandemic, as well as his delay in deploying the National Guard to deal with rioting after George Floyd's murder in 2020.

Also in Philadelphia earlier on Tuesday was Mr Vance, Trump’s running mate, who assailed the new Democratic White House ticket.

The Ohio senator told reporters that Ms Harris’s choice of Mr Walz shows that "when given the opportunity she will bend the knee to the most radical elements of her party".

Trump's campaign said in a statement: "Just like Kamala Harris, Tim Walz is a dangerously liberal extremist, and the Harris-Walz California dream is every American's nightmare."

President Joe Biden, who suspended his own election campaign last month and endorsed Ms Harris, said in a statement that the Democratic ticket "will be the strongest defenders of our personal freedoms and our democracy".

Another of the finalists to be Ms Harris’s running mate, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, was also at the rally.

He had faced sharp criticism from the left over his support for Israel and his handling of college protests sparked by the war in Gaza.

Some Trump advisers have expressed relief that Ms Harris did not pick Mr Shapiro because of concerns he could help deliver the pivotal state of Pennsylvania.

Before entering the governor's office, Mr Walz represented a Republican-leaning district in the US Congress for 12 years.

He won that seat in 2006 - the only Democrat to have done so in the mostly rural district over the past three decades.

Mr Walz is a native of Nebraska and the son of a school administrator and a stay-at-home mother.

He grew up farming and hunting and served in the Army National Guard for 24 years after joining aged 17.

The young Mr Walz also taught secondary school pupils - first for a year in China, a country he says he has visited about 30 times. He speaks some Mandarin.

His wife, Gwen Whipple, a fellow teacher, drew him to her native Minnesota, where he taught social studies and geography and coached American football.

BBC
 
deltexas said:
This is going to be a super tight election. 3 or 4 states with a few thousand votes will decide the election. Anyone's game at this point. No swing voters here. It's ensuring your base turns out in droves here to vote.
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Can't believe it's been less than 20 days since Biden dropped and she's stepped in. The momentum has been unbelievable. In the Economist poll tracker, she's now a full 2 points ahead with the Democratic convention still to come

Economist Poll Tracked 8Aug.png

Trump had better find an angle to attack her and fast. Calling her Kamabla ain't going to cut it.

I'm keenly waiting for some swing state polls to release. The latest Wisconsin poll has it flipped Dem. Will be very interesting to hear from Pennsylvania and Georgia.
 
‘We’re not going back’: thousands rally for Harris and Walz in Wisconsin and Michigan

‘We’re not going back’: thousands rally for Harris and Walz in Wisconsin and Michigan

Detroit rally draws 15,000 people and high energy despite Gaza protesters and medical incidents from summer heat

Kamala Harris and her running mate, Minnesota’s governor, Tim Walz, continued their swing-state tour with rallies in rural Wisconsin and Detroit, Michigan, on Wednesday, that the campaign said brought out more than 10,000 people each.

The rallies, which followed a raucous event in Philadelphia, served as an opportunity for Harris to continue to introduce Walz, a formerly low-profile midwest governor, to Democrats in the critical swing state.

In Eau Claire, a north-western Wisconsin city less than two hours from Minneapolis and St Paul, Minnesota, the rally drew attendees from both states – and 12,000 people in total, the campaign said. The Detroit rally on Wednesday night drew 15,000 supporters in another crucial swing state, the Harris campaign told reporters. Walz called it “the largest rally of the campaign” so far.

The big Detroit crowd repeatedly chanted: “We’re not going back,” Democrats’ counter to Trump’s anti-abortion politics and “make America great again” slogan.

Attendees in Wisconsin said they were enthusiastic about seeing a Harris and Walz ticket. “I’m elated,” said Lori Schlecht, a teacher from Minnesota who said she was excited about Walz given his background in public education – Walz was a public school teacher before he was elected to the US House of Representatives in 2006. “Minnesota is blessed to have him, and I’m glad to see him at the national level. He is authentic and real – he’ll get **** done.”

Many Minnesota residents in attendance pointed to Walz’s down-to-earth manner as an asset to the Democratic party ticket.

“Walz is my homeboy,” said Colin Mgam, who is 65 and retired and drove from St Paul for the rally. “He brings straight talk, and he’s going to do well.”

As midwestern Democrats praised Walz as “one of us”, the Harris campaign announced on Wednesday that it had raised $36m from supporters in the 24 hours since it announced him as Harris’s running mate.

The rallies did see some shaky moments, with protesters in the Detroit crowd briefly trying to disrupt Harris’s speech. Reporters on the scene said the interruption came from pro-Palestinian protesters chanting: “Kamala, Kamala, you can’t hide. We won’t vote for genocide.”

In response, Harris first said that in a democracy, everyone’s voice matters, but that “I am speaking now”. Then, as the shouts from protesters continued, she said: “You know what? If you want Donald Trump to win, then say that, otherwise I’m speaking.” The crowd cheered.

Both rallies were also marked by medical incidents as thousands of people packed together in the summer heat, prompting several speakers to pause their remarks and flag that people in the crowd needed assistance. Calls for a “medic” interrupted multiple speeches, including both of Walz’s. In Wisconsin, Walz urged supporters to drink water and “take care of one another”. In Michigan, he thanked the crowd for taking care of their neighbors. “We are neighbors, and we’re not weird,” he said.

The Eau Claire rally highlighted Harris’s focus on Wisconsin, where she held her first rally after Joe Biden announced the end of his bid for re-election. In 2016, Donald Trump won Wisconsin by about 20,000 votes, and Biden won the state in 2020 by a similar margin.

The indie folk band Bon Iver, whose lead singer is from Eau Claire and previously supported Bernie Sanders’ 2016 and 2020 presidential campaigns, opened for Harris at the Wednesday event.

In Wisconsin, Walz spoke first, focusing on his midwestern background and noting he had family in the crowd. “Being a midwesterner, I know something about commitment to the people,” he said. He also spoke at length about his experience coaching football, teaching social studies and serving in the Minnesota national guard, underscoring his role as a kind of ambassador to rural and working-class Americans for the Democratic party.Top of Form

And he directly took on Trump. “Don’t believe him when he plays dumb. He knows exactly what he’s talking about. He knows exactly what Project 2025 will do in restricting and taking our freedoms. He knows that it rigs the economy for the super rich if he gets a chance to go back to the White House. It will be far worse than it was four years ago.”

Walz also revisited his support for and personal experience with IVF, the fertility treatment, which has become a contentious issue for Republicans after an Alabama court ruled that frozen embryos have personhood.

In Michigan, Harris reiterated her now popular attack line that, as a former prosecutor, she “knows Donald Trump’s type”, but had to cut off her supporters’ repeated chants of “Lock him up!” when she talked about Trump’s recent convictions, telling them that the courts would handle that, and that “we are going to beat him in November.”

The United Auto Workers president, Shawn Fain, who appeared on stage before Harris in Detroit, called her “a badass woman who stood on the picket line with striking workers” and praised Walz as one of the union’s top picks for vice-president.

“He’s one of us. He’s a working-class guy. He knows working-class values,” Fain said. “Best of all, he’s a proud union member.”

Fain called Trump “a lapdog for the billionaire class” and “a scab”, prompting the Detroit crowd to chant: “He’s a scab! He’s a scab!”

Walz, who was not initially an obvious contender for Harris’s vice-presidential pick, garnered widespread attention within the party after giving a candid and upbeat interview on MSNBC’s Morning Joe in which he boosted Harris and wrote off Donald Trump’s running mate JD Vance as “weird”.

Donald Trump has been quick to paint Walz, who has worked with progressive lawmakers in Minnesota to pass a raft of progressive laws – codifying the right to abortion, expanding protections for workers and establishing landmark voting rights legislation – as a member of the “radical left”, a line of attack that the former president will likely continue to push.

But Walz pushed back against Trump on Wednesday in Wisconsin. “This election is all about asking that question: which direction will this country go in? Donald Trump knows the direction he wants to take it. He wants to take us back.”

THE GUARDIAN
 
Harris leads Trump by 5 points in Ipsos poll

Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump 42% to 37% in the race for the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election, according to an Ipsos poll published on Thursday.

The poll found Harris had widened her lead since a July 22-23 Reuters/Ipsos survey, which found her up 37% to 34% over Trump.

The nationwide poll of 2,045 U.S. adults, conducted Aug. 2-7, found 4% of those surveyed backed independent candidate Robert Kennedy Jr., down from 10% in July.


Reuters
 
Polls show Kamala Harris building lead over Trump in 2024 election

Kamala Harris continues to gain strength in the US presidential election, as polls nationally and in battleground states show her building leads or catching Donald Trump.

On Friday morning, FiveThirtyEight, a leading polling analysis site, puts Harris, the Democratic party’s presumptive nominee for president, up by 2.1 points over her Republican rival in its national average.

In averages for swing states, where control of the White House rests, Harris led in Michigan by two points, Pennsylvania by 1.1 point and Wisconsin by 1.8 points. Trump led in Arizona by less than half a point and in Georgia by half a point.

In battleground states without enough polls to calculate averages, Trump was ahead by about three points in North Carolina and the candidates were about level in Nevada. In the latter state, recent CBS and Bloomberg polls have given Harris two-point leads while on Friday the Nevada Independent reported a poll showing the Democrat six points up.

The US vice-president, 59, has changed the election race since mid-July, when Joe Biden, 81, finally heeded calls from his own party to step aside for a younger candidate to take on Trump, who is 78. He endorsed Harris to take over the top of the Democratic ticket for this November, while he serves out his single term.

On Thursday night, Amy Walter, of the non-partisan Cook Political Report, told PBS that before Harris entered the race, Biden “was behind by a significant number, not just at the national popular vote, but in those … battleground states. You can see almost six points in a state like Georgia and Nevada.


www.theguardian.com

Polls show Kamala Harris building lead over Trump in 2024 election

Democratic party’s presumptive nominee 2.1 points over Trump in FiveThirtyEight’s national average
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
 
Im not his target demographic and not that plugged in to right wing media but Trump seems off this time, he comes off tired and low energy and playing the same tune he was 8 years and 4 years back.

But you cant trust the polls, he outperforms the polls whenever he's on the ballot
 
oatmeal said:
Im not his target demographic and not that plugged in to right wing media but Trump seems off this time, he comes off tired and low energy and playing the same tune he was 8 years and 4 years back.

But you cant trust the polls, he outperforms the polls whenever he's on the ballot
Click to expand...
He's maintaining a very light campaign schedule compared to the last couple of elections where he was constantly in rallies.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

Harris and Walz whip up crowd at packed Phoenix rally – but ‘we are the underdog’​


Kamala Harris and Tim Walz rallied a packed arena outside Phoenix, Arizona, on Friday – drawing perhaps the largest Democratic crowd of the election cycle this year.

The presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, her running mate and the local leaders who joined them on stage whipped up the crowd, discussing immigration, abortion rights and Indigenous sovereignty.

Noting the Indigenous leaders in the room, Harris also said: “I will always honor tribal sovereignty and respect tribal self-determination.” Indigenous voters are credited with helping deliver Arizona to Joe Biden in 2020; the state is home to 22 federally recognized tribes.

At one point during her speech, Harris was interrupted by protesters chanting “free, free Palestine” and other messages in support of Gaza. She stopped her speech to address the protesters.

“We’re here to fight for our democracy, which includes respecting the voices that I think we are hearing from. Let me just speak to that for a moment and then I’ll get back to the business at hand,” she said. “I have been clear: now is the time to get a ceasefire deal and get the hostage deal done. Now is the time. And the president and I are working around the clock every day to get that ceasefire deal done and bring the hostages home.” Her statement represented a noticeable change in tone from her approach to Gaza protesters in Detroit on Thursday.

Harris and Walz took the stage at the Desert Diamond Arena, a venue that can hold 20,000 people. Although official estimates are not yet available, the Harris campaign confirmed that more than 15,000 people attended the Phoenix rally. On stage, in front of attendees waving signs that read “Coach!”, Walz said the rally “might be the largest political gathering in the history of Arizona”.

“It’s not as if anybody cares about crowd sizes or anything,” he added.

Other Harris campaign events this week that have drawn crowds of up to 15,000, invoking the ire of Donald Trump, who claims to have “spoken to the biggest crowds”.

The Harris-Walz rally represents a renewed push to put the Sun belt back on the map for Harris’s still young campaign. Before Friday night, the state appeared to be leaning red, with Trump leading Harris by single digits in recent polls. But by the evening of the rally, Harris and Trump appeared neck and neck in the state, with polling from FiveThirtyEight showing Harris’ 44.4% closely following Trump’s 44.8%.

Polls on Friday morning showed Harris narrowly leading Trump nationwide.

Despite the large crowd, Harris reminded attendees: “We are the underdog.” She added that hard work would be required to win the election, in a short period of time. Harris officially became the presumptive Democratic nominee on Monday and announced her running mate on Tuesday, after Biden withdrew from the election on 21 July.

“I also bring greetings from our incredible president, Joe Biden,” Harris said. Earlier in the day the White House had announced Biden and Harris would attend their first joint event since the president pulled out of the race.

Speaking in a border state where immigration often ranks as a top issue among voters, Harris struck a tough, but progressive, tone – emphasizing her history as a prosecutor who “went after the trans-national gangs, the drug cartels and the human traffickers” but also calling for a pathway to citizenship.

“We know our immigration system is broken and we know what it takes to fix it: comprehensive reform. That includes strong border security and an earned pathway to citizenship,” Harris said.

While border apprehensions have dropped nationwide, they’ve remained high in Arizona – where voters will decide in November whether to make unlawfully crossing the border a state crime.

Her statements echoed a campaign ad published yesterday, saying Harris would “hire thousands more border agents and crack down on fentanyl and human trafficking”. Republicans have criticized Harris’ handling of immigration, saying she was Biden’s “border czar”, and an ad released by a pro-Trump super Pac last month blamed her for a “chaotic mess” at the border. Harris was tapped by the Biden administration to address the root causes of migration.

Abortion rights have been another key issue in Arizona since the supreme court overturned Roe v Wade in 2022. Harris noted that many states, including Arizona, had laws with “no exceptions for rape or incest”.

Abortion is currently restricted after 15 weeks of pregnancy in Arizona, although a high profile state supreme court ruling had temporarily reinstated a near-total ban earlier this year. Voters will evaluate a ballot measure this November that would codify the right to an abortion until fetal viability.

Long a Republican bastion, Arizona swung blue in 2020 when Biden defeated Trump by fewer than 11,000 votes, thanks to a coalition of Native Americans, Latinos, young people, white suburban voters and moderates who had traditionally voted Republican but were disenchanted by Trump.

Democratic strategists had wondered if the Arizona senator Mark Kelly, who has won two difficult elections, might have helped Harris cement that coalition as her vice-president. This was Harris’ first visit to the state since she announced Walz as her running mate.

Kelly and his wife, the former US representative Gabby Giffords, spoke before Harris and Walz. Giffords and Walz were freshman members of Congress together in 2007, before Giffords was shot in an attempted assassination in 2011. Giffords joined Walz in Minnesota in 2023 when he signed a package of gun safety measures into law.

Representative Ruben Gallego also spoke at the beginning of the rally. Gallego is challenging Trump’s disciple Kari Lake for Arizona’s open US Senate seat this November.

www.theguardian.com

Harris and Walz whip up crowd at packed Phoenix rally – but ‘we are the underdog’

Vice-president addresses Gaza after protesters interrupt speech on immigration, abortion and Indigenous rights
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
 
oatmeal said:
Im not his target demographic and not that plugged in to right wing media but Trump seems off this time, he comes off tired and low energy and playing the same tune he was 8 years and 4 years back.

But you cant trust the polls, he outperforms the polls whenever he's on the ballot
Click to expand...
I think it's time to officially call the Harris-Walz ticket the favourite.

- 24 out of 25 of the last national polls have her ahead of Trump
- All the rust belt swing states - Wisconsin, Michigan and most importantly Pennsylvania have her leading in the latest polls. Georgia's on a knife's edge
- Nate Silver has anointed her 55% favoured. This is up from Biden at 23% when he bowed down
- Kamala still has the Dem convention in a few days. All the razzmatazz will give her a further boost even if temporary
- Trump's looking old and worn out. He's not been able to up his campaign schedule and do more rallies in spite of the momentum totally swinging away from him

Plenty can still change. Dirt can be dug up but at this point, it's tough not to accept that it's Kamala's presidency to lose.
 
Red-Indian said:
I think it's time to officially call the Harris-Walz ticket the favourite.

- 24 out of 25 of the last national polls have her ahead of Trump
- All the rust belt swing states - Wisconsin, Michigan and most importantly Pennsylvania have her leading in the latest polls. Georgia's on a knife's edge
- Nate Silver has anointed her 55% favoured. This is up from Biden at 23% when he bowed down
- Kamala still has the Dem convention in a few days. All the razzmatazz will give her a further boost even if temporary
- Trump's looking old and worn out. He's not been able to up his campaign schedule and do more rallies in spite of the momentum totally swinging away from him

Plenty can still change. Dirt can be dug up but at this point, it's tough not to accept that it's Kamala's presidency to lose.
Click to expand...

I doubt it because Polls have always underestimated Trump by a few percent and the swing states - WI, PA, AZ, GA, MI are all usually within the 1-2% range

Trump has an advantage in the electoral college because he has taken two huge states off the map - both OH and FL are reliably red states now - in previous elections they used to swing back and forth.

So the Dem pathway to the White house is harder and has to go through AZ and GA. They would lose in PA too if it wasnt the philly suburbs vote countering the rest of the state's red slant.
 
Is Kamala Harris a 'failed border tsar'?

From its opening line, Donald Trump’s first television advertisement blasting rival Kamala Harris took aim at what his campaign believes is her biggest weakness - immigration.

“This is America’s border tsar,” a narrator said, over images of the vice-president dancing, “and she’s failed us.”

A series of statistics followed, illustrating what the Trump campaign says took place under Ms Harris, who was given a role in dealing with the border crisis by President Joe Biden soon after his inauguration.

The figures in the video ranged from 10 million illegal border crossings to 250,000 fentanyl-related overdose deaths.

The voice concluded: “Kamala Harris: failed, weak, dangerously liberal.”

The Harris campaign responded that the former president was running on “his trademark lies”.

It comes as little surprise that the Trump campaign took its first big swing at Ms Harris as the “failed border tsar”, blaming her for the high numbers of undocumented immigrants at the US southern border.

Americans have consistently said in polls this year that immigration is a top problem facing their country, and it will weigh on many of their minds when they cast ballots for the next US president in November.

Since that first ad, Trump and his running mate JD Vance have repeatedly labelled Ms Harris the “failed border tsar”, and tied her to relentless images of people wading across the Rio Grande or squeezing under razor wire into the US.

Her critics say she should have found a way to address the issue over the past four years.

But “border tsar” is a contested term. Allies and former officials who worked with the vice-president say she was not given responsibility for policing the border.

“It was never that position,” said Ricardo Zuniga, the former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State of Western Hemisphere Affairs.

“She knew from the beginning, as did the entire US government, that it was about tackling migration at its source.”

In early 2021, President Biden gave Ms Harris the unenviable brief of dealing with the “root causes” of Central American immigration.

At the time, people were fleeing a perfect storm of gang-related violence, economic ruin and environmental disasters in a region called the Northern Triangle - Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador.

Talking to migrants passing through Mexico, it was clear that most came from Honduras where, they said, a brutal “narco-dictatorship” was in power and wages were as low as five dollars a day.

While the ultimate aim of the Harris role was to reduce the numbers of people arriving at the US border, Mr Biden never used the words “border tsar” in announcing her appointment.

“She is the most qualified person to lead our efforts with Mexico and the Northern Triangle in stemming the movement of so many folks to our southern border,” Mr Biden said at the time.

Still, many people came to see the assignment as all-encompassing. Several media organisations, including the BBC, described Ms Harris as a “tsar” in news reports.

Some commentators in Central America and Mexico questioned her qualifications, given Ms Harris had no prior experience in Latin American affairs.

Tsar or otherwise, the job was a daunting, thankless task.

Successfully dealing with decades of underinvestment and the region’s deep-seated economic and political strife would require huge amounts of money, along with goodwill and cross-party cooperation. That’s in woefully short supply in Washington, especially when it comes to immigration.

“The idea that any one US administration is going to alter 500 years of history in Central America in a four-year period is ludicrous,” says Ricardo Zúniga.

As the former lead US diplomat on the Northern Triangle, he maintains the Biden administration did make in-roads to Central America’s problems.

He points to Ms Harris’s help raising $5bn (£3.9bn) from the private sector for job creation and entrepreneurship in the region. Several former members of her team recount how she personally called CEOs, persuading them to put in funds.

During her visit to Guatemala and Mexico in June 2021, I saw Ms Harris try to show a kinder face, following four years of Donald Trump’s harsh rhetoric. She said she appreciated that people were fleeing “hunger, hurricanes and pandemic” and went on to set up a Central American corruption task force.

That trip, though, is most remembered for her stark message to all prospective migrants: “Do not come. If you come to our border, you will be turned back.”

Millions ignored her warning. Roughly two years later, in December 2023, Customs and Border Protection (CBP) officers had 300,000 encounters with undocumented immigrants at the US southern border.

Many who have governed along the border in recent years take a dim view of Kamala Harris and her work in Central America.

“Whatever she was doing diplomatically in other countries, I wouldn’t call it very effective based on what we saw here at the actual border,” says Douglas Nicholls, the Republican Mayor of Yuma, Arizona.

“We had record numbers of people, numbers that far exceeded anything we’d ever seen before, including over three times the population of my city in one year. Those were scary numbers.”

The vice-president is a “legitimate” target on the issue, which he says is not “a made-up excuse to whip up support among the base.”

“It should have been addressed a lot earlier than it was,” says Mayor Nicholls.

Others suggest the funds Ms Harris helped raise had only a small impact on the major incentive driving people north - being paid in US dollars.

Ricardo Barrientos, the director of the Central American Institute of Fiscal Studies, said US private-sector investment paled in comparison to the remittances Central American migrants send home: $37 bn last year alone.

"It's very small compared to the magnitude of the challenge. Some would say, 'too little, too late'," he said.

But Katie Tobin, who worked on immigration at the White House, says Ms Harris’s work has been deliberately “misconstrued and painted in a bad light“.

Ms Harris deserves credit for “a good news story” in Central America, she says. She points to statistics showing a 72% drop in immigration from just Central America between March 2021, when Ms Harris took on the role, and June 2024.

Ultimately, the view of Ms Harris’s record may simply split along party lines.

In recent months, the overall number of undocumented migrants has plummeted.

This is partly due to an executive order issued by President Biden allowing migrants in the US illegally to be deported without processing their asylum requests. There are also more legal pathways into the United States for prospective migrants.

Ms Harris’s defence is primarily to point to Trump’s resistance to getting a bipartisan deal on immigration reform through Congress.

In February, lawmakers reached the deal after intense wrangling, where Democrats ceded much ground to Republican positions. Republican leaders then blocked it at Trump’s behest, reportedly because he did not want to give the Biden administration a win.

“It was Trump himself who, for very openly political reasons, undermined an agreement that would help stabilise the border,” says Mr Zúniga. “So, the Trump campaign is kind of in the way of their own argument on this.”

Mayor Nicholls in Yuma is not moved by that defence, saying: “I think that’s a very short-term memory."

He recalls contacting the Trump White House at a moment of crisis. He was invited to discuss immigration directly with the president and the Homeland Security secretary in a meeting where he was given more resources.

Three months later, he says “we were out of that crisis”.

“That is effective leadership on the border,” he adds.

Still, Ms Tobin says the Harris campaign should talk about it more.

“When there’s a vacuum and the vice-president doesn’t talk about immigration, it creates an opportunity for Republicans to fill the airwaves with disinformation.”

The Harris campaign responded to Trump’s first advertisement with some of its own.

The first focussed on Trump’s opposition to the immigration deal, and accused him of trying to stop her from fixing the "broken" immigration system.

A more recent one has put the spotlight on her work before the Biden administration, insisting that as California’s attorney general, Ms Harris prosecuted cartels and drug-trafficking gangs - and as president would crack down on fentanyl and human trafficking.

It remains to be seen if this new stance will be enough for her to cast off the “failed border tsar” label, given that Republicans will no doubt continue to hammer home that image all the way to election day.

BBC
 
oatmeal said:
I doubt it because Polls have always underestimated Trump by a few percent and the swing states - WI, PA, AZ, GA, MI are all usually within the 1-2% range

Trump has an advantage in the electoral college because he has taken two huge states off the map - both OH and FL are reliably red states now - in previous elections they used to swing back and forth.

So the Dem pathway to the White house is harder and has to go through AZ and GA. They would lose in PA too if it wasnt the philly suburbs vote countering the rest of the state's red slant.
Click to expand...
Maybe. I would guess that's why the likes of Nate Cohn and Nate Silver are reluctant to reflect the lead in their probability of win forecast. I would hope after the big lessons in 2016 and the smaller ones in 2024, most pollsters are reflecting the "shy Trump voter" syndrome in their results.

Even so, my most standards, it's tough to ignore such a preponderance of statistical evidence from a wide range of pollsters all polling independently.

If you take Biden's winning coalition of 2020, he built a group of midwestern states in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan and added in Georgia and Arizona. Trump's got to hold on to Pennsylvania and take at least 2 of the others. Georgia and Arizona are his best bets currently but Georgia's a strange one. The last presidential election and both senators went Dem. He's in a huge slanging match with the State's popular governor. The state unit is very well organized and brilliant at turning out the vote. I think the path for Trump is a lot narrower that most people believe.

If you look up on this page, I too started very pessimistic on Kamala but the mounting evidence is getting too hard to ignore.
 
Red-Indian said:
Maybe. I would guess that's why the likes of Nate Cohn and Nate Silver are reluctant to reflect the lead in their probability of win forecast. I would hope after the big lessons in 2016 and the smaller ones in 2024, most pollsters are reflecting the "shy Trump voter" syndrome in their results.

Even so, my most standards, it's tough to ignore such a preponderance of statistical evidence from a wide range of pollsters all polling independently.

If you take Biden's winning coalition of 2020, he built a group of midwestern states in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan and added in Georgia and Arizona. Trump's got to hold on to Pennsylvania and take at least 2 of the others. Georgia and Arizona are his best bets currently but Georgia's a strange one. The last presidential election and both senators went Dem. He's in a huge slanging match with the State's popular governor. The state unit is very well organized and brilliant at turning out the vote. I think the path for Trump is a lot narrower that most people believe.

If you look up on this page, I too started very pessimistic on Kamala but the mounting evidence is getting too hard to ignore.
Click to expand...

She's definitely got the political hawa around her campaign whereas Trump appears muddled and confused and as usual ranting his imagined grievances. But this is how he has always been, the voters have basically already accounted for it

I hope pollsters have adjusted their methodology but if there is a trust issue with one part of the electorate, its very difficult to get a truly random sample to get accurate numbers. They could be wrong in both directions hence why my hesitation in relying on polling numbers

With AZ my doubt is about the border issue which is huge in the state and there was a big migrant surge in the last year. GA is basically a 50-50 state. Its no longer reliably red but cant depend on it being blue either. Another state to watch out is NV which is polling red, I think that's why Kamala also promised to abolish Tips, a proposal which will be very popular with their service based economy and among latinos
 
In most of the swing states PA, AZ , GA, most of the state is deep red and there are few dense blue urban and suburban areas which counter the rest of the republican vote. So the final result depends on whether Maricopa county's urban areas can outvote the rest of AZ or Philly suburbs can outvote the rest of PA.

Turnout modelling is so challenging, they have to guess the final demographic of the electorate based on voter enthusiasm and turnout. I dont envy US pollsters. In the UK is far simpler. Polls are rarely wrong by a lot and exit polls are dead accurate
 
oatmeal said:
In most of the swing states PA, AZ , GA, most of the state is deep red and there are few dense blue urban and suburban areas which counter the rest of the republican vote. So the final result depends on whether Maricopa county's urban areas can outvote the rest of AZ or Philly suburbs can outvote the rest of PA.

Turnout modelling is so challenging, they have to guess the final demographic of the electorate based on voter enthusiasm and turnout. I dont envy US pollsters. In the UK is far simpler. Polls are rarely wrong by a lot and exit polls are dead accurate
Click to expand...
Agreed.

It's a very challenging election to predict. Trump's base is driven by resentment at being 'cheated' out of 2020 and may turn out enmasse.

The democratic base is totally abuzz since the change and the young activists who drive the turnout operation are feverishly energised. I've got a couple of young cousins who're in the machine - calling, organising and planning to spend all of election day ferrying voters.

I still think Kamala has the edge at this point. Even the Trafalgar poll (which is basically a Republican inhouse pollster) is just calling Arizona and Georgia by 1 to Trump. Can't ignore this much evidence.
 
Red-Indian said:
Agreed.

It's a very challenging election to predict. Trump's base is driven by resentment at being 'cheated' out of 2020 and may turn out enmasse.

The democratic base is totally abuzz since the change and the young activists who drive the turnout operation are feverishly energised. I've got a couple of young cousins who're in the machine - calling, organising and planning to spend all of election day ferrying voters.

I still think Kamala has the edge at this point. Even the Trafalgar poll (which is basically a Republican inhouse pollster) is just calling Arizona and Georgia by 1 to Trump. Can't ignore this much evidence.
Click to expand...

There's a massive uptick in enthusiasm for sure. Before he stepped down, 71% of voters thought Biden was too old to take the job. That means even 30% odd dems didnt think he was up for four more years.

But Kamala's nomination gave the dems a new lease of life. Now Trump appears old and tired and her ticket is the energetic and (relatively) young. I dont think republicans were expecting it to happen, they are looking clueless trying random attacks. With Hillary they had spent years attacking her as SoS and before that as senator
 
VP doesn't get much attention in the UK so I didn't know too much about Kamala.

Based on what I have seen recently she seems quite credible. Now I don't know anything about her policies but she has a presidential aura.
 
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