With the race for the semi-finals heating up, we look at how Wednesday’s results impact every team, with the help of the FTX Bracket Challenge.
With nine matches to go in the Super 12 stage, we only have one confirmed semi-finalist.
That spot belongs to Pakistan, who locked down their final four berth after defeating Namibia on Tuesday. Their big win means there is only one semi-final spot left from Group 2 of the Super 12.
But it’s all getting very tight in the race for that second qualification place, with Scotland the only team out of contention.
New Zealand, Afghanistan, India and Namibia are still mathematically in the running for that semi-final place in what could be a thrilling conclusion to the Super 12 stage.
In Group 1, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are both out while England are almost certain to go through after four wins from four.
South Africa, Australia and the West Indies are the other teams still in Group 1 qualification contention.
While their hopes of progressing at the current tournament have been dashed, Scotland, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh all have something to play for with automatic qualification to the Super 12 stage of the next T20 World Cup up for grabs.
Following Wednesday's results, we look at what each team needs to do to reach the next stage of the tournament.
GROUP 1
Minimum points to reach semi-finals: Six points
Maximum points needed to reach semi-finals: 10 points
ENGLAND
First – Eight points – four matches - NRR of 3.183
Remaining opponents: South Africa
What they need to do to reach the semi-finals: They’re basically there
England have all but locked down their spot in the final four with eight points from four games.
While both Australia and South Africa can still join England on eight points, not only would they each have to win their remaining games – for the Proteas that includes a match against England – they would need to win significantly enough to overturn England’s massive NRR lead.
A victory over South Africa in their final group game would take NRR out of the equation and cement their already stone-tight grip on top spot.
In short: They’re virtually already into the semi-finals.
SOUTH AFRICA
Second – Six points – Four games – NRR of 0.742
Remaining opponents: England
What they need to reach the semi-finals: Win and hope
South Africa have bounced back well since their opening defeat against Australia but their fate is still not entirely in their own hands.
The Proteas could theoretically lose their last match and still make the semi-finals but they would be relying heavily on other results and hoping NRR remains in their favour.
Conversely, they could win their remaining match and still not make the next stage with the possibility of all three of England, Australia and themselves finishing on eight points.
Their NRR is +0.742 should see them through if they win, with Australia (-0.627) and West Indies (-1.598) needing to motor to leapfrog them there.
In short: Winning their last match should see them through, losing their last match could see them exit the tournament.
AUSTRALIA
Third – Four points – three matches – NRR of -0.627
Remaining opponents: Bangladesh, West Indies
What they need to reach the semi-finals: Win and hope
Australia were firmly on course for the semi-finals until a big defeat against England neutered their NRR, leaving their fate in the hands of others.
The Aussies trail South Africa by two points with a game in hand and will be conscious of NRR across their final two matches given how tight the group is.
They have the reigning champions and Bangladesh to come in their group fixtures. If they win both those games and South Africa lose their last match against England they will go through.
If they win both their games and South Africa are also victorious, it will come down to NRR and Australia have a lot of ground to make up.
A loss in either of their last matches leaves them hoping England hammer South Africa.
In short: Winning both matches could see them through, winning one match might see them through, winning no matches will see them exit the tournament.
SRI LANKA
Fourth – Two points – four matches – NRR of -0.590
Remaining opponents: West Indies
What they need to do: Win to boost their 2022 Super 12 chances
With just one match to go in their Super 12 campaign, Sri Lanka can finish on a maximum of four points.
That won’t be enough to see them reach the semi-finals in the UAE, but there is still something at stake for Sri Lanka.
Having already secured automatic qualification for the ICC Men’s T20 World Cup 2022 in Australia by reaching the Super 12 stage in this tournament, Sri Lanka will be intent on guaranteeing themselves automatic entry into the Super 12 stage of the next tournament.
From the 12 automatic qualifiers for next year’s tournament, the winner and runner up of the ICC Men’s T20 World Cup 2021 plus the next six highest-ranked teams - as of November 15 - will go straight through to the Super 12 stage of Australia 2022.
Sri Lanka sit 10th in the T20I rankings right now, but could yet enter the Super 12 2022 automatic qualification spots if results go their way.
WEST INDIES
Fifth – Two points – three games – NRR of -1.598
Remaining opponents: Sri Lanka, Australia
What they need to do: Win and pray
Defending champions West Indies’ campaign got off to the roughest of starts against England, with their NRR decimated after being bowled out for 55. Their hopes were hurt further in an eight-wicket defeat against South Africa before they revived their campaign with a three-run win over Bangladesh.
Their chances of reaching the next stage look very slim but they aren’t out of the race yet. They need to win both their matches to be in contention.
If they can collect four points from their remaining two matches, they will not only bolster their chances but hurt fellow contenders Australia’s, ensuring Aaron Finch’s team finish on a maximum of six points.
If South Africa also drop points in their last game against England, then the Proteas, Australia and West Indies could all finish on six points bringing NRR into the equation. As things stand, West Indies are at the back of the line for NRR, so they would need things to change significantly here.
In short: If they win both matches they have a slim chance of making it. Anything less and they’re out.
BANGLADESH
Sixth – zero points – four matches – NRR of -1.435
Remaining opponents: Australia
What they need to do: Win to boost their 2022 Super 12 chances
With four losses from four Super 12 matches, Bangladesh can no longer reach the semi-finals.
Like Sri Lanka, they still have something to play for as they look to improve their spot on the ICC T20I rankings with Super 12 2022 ramifications in mind.
In short: They need to win both their games and hope for something miraculous.
GROUP 2
Minimum points to reach semi-finals: Four points
Maximum points required to reach semi-finals: Eight points
PAKISTAN
First – Eight points – Four games – NRR of 1.065
Remaining opponents: Scotland
What they need to do: One win to lock down top spot
Alongside England, Pakistan have looked like the team to beat at this tournament, defeating India by 10 wickets before impressive wins over New Zealand, Afghanistan and Namibia.
Their victory over Namibia locked in their spot in the semi-finals.
They’ll need to win their final match to guarantee a first-place finish to avoid a likely semi-final against world No.1 England.
In short: One more win to go into the semi-finals unbeaten.
AFGHANISTAN
Second – Four points – four games – NRR of 1.481
Remaining opponents: New Zealand
What they need to do: Beat New Zealand and finish with a superior NRR to any team tied on six points
Afghanistan’s heavy loss to India has made their position in Group 2 far less stable.
They now must beat New Zealand in their final group game to qualify, and even then a victory in that match may not be sufficient, although they do still have the best NRR in the group.
Lose to New Zealand and they are certainly out.
If the next set of Group 2 results go to form and New Zealand beat Namibia and India beat Scotland, then it will all come down to NRR if Afghanistan beat the Black Caps on Sunday.
The NRR permutations on the final day are not yet clear, but it could be the case that India play Namibia in the final game of the Super 12 stage knowing exactly what they need to do in order to finish in second place in the group.
It would also come down to NRR if Afghanistan beat New Zealand and Namibia manage victories over the Black Caps and India.
In short: Victory over New Zealand could be enough, but NRR is still vital
NEW ZEALAND
Third – Four points – three games – NRR of 0.816
Remaining opponents: Namibia, Afghanistan
What they need to do: Win their remaining matches
On paper, New Zealand have got their two toughest games out of the way, suffering a loss to Pakistan before winning comfortably against India. That has them firmly on course for the semi-finals.
If they win their remaining two matches they will be guaranteed a spot in the next stage.
A victory over Afghanistan paired with a loss to Namibia would see them relying on both India and Namibia's results and NRR.
A win over Namibia and then a defeat to Afghanistan would also see it come down to NRR, with three teams potentially level on six points after five matches.
Afghanistan have the edge currently over New Zealand on NRR, and India have the advantage of playing the last game in the group so would know exactly the permutations involved.
In short: Winning their remaining matches seals a semi-final spot
INDIA
Fourh – Two points – three games – NRR of 0.073
Remaining opponents: Scotland, Namibia
What they need to do: Win big and hope
Among the pre-tournament favourites, India found themselves on the brink of elimination after just two matches following heavy defeats against Pakistan and New Zealand.
The big win over Afghanistan helped, but their likeliest road to the semi-finals is registering further huge wins over each of their next two opponents while hoping Afghanistan beat New Zealand by the barest of margins so they can catch up on NRR.
Any loss would end India’s qualification hopes, and if New Zealand win their remaining games then there is nothing India can do.
In short: India need a favour from Afghanistan against New Zealand and more big winning margins
NAMIBIA
Fifth – Two points – Three games – NRR of -1.600
Remaining opponents: New Zealand, India
What they need to do: Win their remaining matches and hope
Having registered a famous win over Scotland in their first ever Super 12 match, Namibia are still in the chase despite chastening defeats to Afghanistan and Pakistan.
If they win both their remaining matches, they will have a chance to reach the semi-finals. Of course, that won’t be easy given their next two opponents are New Zealand and India.
They are relying on other results as is and, given their NRR, even two victories over their much-fancied opponents is unlikely to be enough.
Still, there is a chance.
In short: Mathematically Namibia are still in qualification contention
SCOTLAND
Sixth – Zero points – three games – NRR of -2.645
Remaining opponents: India, Pakistan
What they need to do: Have fun and fly home
A heavy first-up defeat against Afghanistan before losses to Namibia and New Zealand has left Scotland with no chance of progressing from the Super 12.
In terms of the 2022 tournament, Scotland's ICC T20I ranking at 14th looks unlikely to improve enough to avoid the First Round stage in Australia - they can climb as high as 11th on the rankings if they beat India and Pakistan.
But their qualification for this Super 12 stage does mean that the Scots are guaranteed to feature at the next World Cup and two famous wins here would be the perfect precursor of things to come.
In short: Pride to play for
